Monday, August 31, 2009

Calling all P3ers. Your Day Is Nearing. (T-Minus 42 Days to My Target)

Let's start with Impending Crash? from Denninger at The Market Ticker. In a simple post Karl makes some nice points without calling a top (emphasis mine). "Nobody - and I do mean nobody - is talking about what this sort of volume pattern means. Well, I will: this is the sort of pattern that precedes an all-on equity market collapse. It strongly implies that the only volume support that the market has is from "hot money" speculators. Lest you think this is sustainable let me point out that just a few weeks ago the very same so-called "commentators" said the same thing about China's market."

Karl's post follows the sentiment of many of my posts over the past couple of weeks and my sentiment regarding some of the "advisers" that I hear stories about via email and conversation. You all know that I began moving clients to cash at 936. A bit early and still not 100% there, but the idea of anyone buying anything here? Sheer stupidity. Still being long here, OK, but buying? To those of you that use an "adviser", please be careful and remember they have two mortgages and 4 car payments that you are responsible for. What do you need to do - have a set plan for each purchase, stick to it and always use stops. You two have different agendas. Don't forget that.

TD at Zero Hedge has a nice post on Head Of China Sovereign Wealth Fund Openly Admits Asset Bubble Addressed By Creation Of More Bubbles. "In a phenomenal demonstration of frankness and true economic assessment, the head of the China Investment Council, Lou Jiwei, who controls China's $298 billion sovereign wealth fund, admits the ponzi nature of today's markets" What the heck? Ponzi nature of today's markets? Heloooo - TARP MONEY. Let me ask you one freaking question. Why the FUCK do we have to hear this out of China? Congratulations, our representatives and current administration have corrupted this nation so bad we now have to hear truth out of China.

We here at Shanky's Tech Blog have been discussing the fraudulent and irresponsible actions of the Fed, Treasury and Congress since my first post. It has been so clear that they have been doing nothing but trying to re-inflate the bubble to delay or somehow prolong the bubble instead of simply taking their medicine. Actually all they have done is waste trillions of our wealth dumping good money into a bad situation. If they had just made the banks RESPONSIBLE for their bad loans and not the people our futures would be much less hyperinflated and much more enjoyable.

Want a good laugh - well not really - want a good look at some figures behind the savings rates in this country? What is it you won't hear from the 1% CNBS pundits? Naked Capitalism has a nice guest post from Andrew Kaplan - Guest Post: “The Savings Rate Has Recovered…if You Ignore the Bottom 99%” (emphasis mine) "If we expand our survey to the top 1% of all households, we find an average income of $1.36 million for 2007. These folks had an average federal tax burden of just under 33%, so their after tax income averaged $916 thousand. If you assume this group had a savings rate of 33%, you get total savings of $452 billion (remember, $171.5 bn of this comes from the top 0.01%, we’re assuming a savings rate of around 25% of after tax income for the “poorer” 99% of the top 1%) This is more than 100% of the personal savings of the entire population, according to the BEA data. It implies that 99% of the US population still has, on average, a negative savings rate of around 1.3%. If you subtract the next nine percent, which likely still has a positive savings rate, the data for the bottom 90% becomes even more depressing, implying a negative savings rate of close to 5%." Now get you some of that green shooters. That deserves a Nature Boy Rick Flair WOOOOOOO! "To be the man you gotta beat the man."

One last post from TD at ZH - This Should End The Semantic Debate Over Whether The Fed Is Monetizing. So they are or are not monetizing the debt? Of course they are, but they think the sheeple are ignorant morons and have no clue what is going on not just under their noses, but right in front of their faces. How else do you classify the Feds repo of the treasuries from the PD's?

On the market - As long as SPX holds 1015 the bulls have a chance. Ramp jobs galore at that number. You would not think the PPT would be participating at the top. Wonder what they are protecting up here? The Big Picture has a good post today on Recent Concentration of Volume in Financial Stocks: Coordinated Capital Infusion? that you need to read. "I’m not inclined toward conspiracy theories, but it’s difficult to imagine a scenario in which this is not a (frighteningly necessary) coordinated capital infusion, with taxpayer dollars ultimately at work in financial markets." (emphasis mine)

UPDATE: ZH pulls out this doozy on insider selling and the levitation act - TrimTabs' CEO Charles Biderman Discusses Massive Insider Selling. This is must watch IMO. If you are not a believer in manipulation and the pump and dump, maybe this will help change your mind.

It is very toppy and the consolidation in the past 7 days between 1020 and 1032 screams the bears may have run out of steam. Problem is the sellers are not showing up and the volume is not there. I'm still looking for a higher high (but playing it as the top may be in) as the weeklys don't have the necessary divergences and the sucker rally blow off top total enthusiastic gazmotron top has not been set. The vampire squid has not fully drained its victim just yet. Let 'em print one more statement at QE in September, then look out.

On a side note the computer at work is finally fixed. I never got rid of the virus and trashed everything. Luckily I had a virus free data backup where I did not lose too much work. I also entered the world of dual monitors today. Wow, somewhere near heaven is all I got to say. Sorry I resisted it and then procrastinated on this one. Simply awesome.

GL trading.

Tech Is Toppy - GOOG Is Almost There

One chart will tell the story, GOOG weekly. At the top trendline with and ending diagonal at the top of the BB in a strong resistance zone from $475 to $500. The indicators are extremely toppy with precious room left to run. Some are calling it a completed 5th wave and some a completed ABC. I don't care what they call it. The chart is there.

When GOOG pops the rest will follow. When the RSI crosses the trendline, look out. The table is set. The falling wedge is in place and it will play out. Will the E touch of the wedge make the bottom trendline or even have a throw under? Way too early to speculate on such things. Let's just get the market heading in its rightful direction first and we'll read it from there.

At one time back in April I went to call tops and pullbacks in all of the tech stocks. Since being horribly wrong then, I have remained quiet and patient. Could I be wrong again? Absofreakinglutely! The manipulated bullshit bit me in the ass once and it did not feel good. Do not want to go there again. I hope I am right this time. If not, don't blame me. Blame the manipulators.

GL trading.

Chart may be viewed better HERE.

Saturday, August 29, 2009

Weekend Video Pleasure - Pachaebel's Canon On Electric Guitar.

Sorry about yesterday. We moved offices and they shut down the servers at about 8:45 and I was not finished with my post. Needless to say I busted my butt moving stuff all day and never got web access beck. Monday am I will not have a post either (unless I do it Sunday night) as the servers may not be on line yet.

On to the video -

The most bitching version of Pachelbel's Canon. Next time you are at a wedding listening just play this version in your head. This is really awesome. 62mn views says so (or that you have seen it).

Thursday, August 27, 2009

Good Morning - Flat to Down.

Tougher call today as muted responses to market data continue to baffle. After checking out Dan's post and a few others, looks like the pennant that has formed should lead to further upside. If it plays out as measures one target is 1048 and the other 1038 depending on point of measurement. The is not a call.

Lots and lots and even more people calling for a pullback. With the daily upper BB at 1032 and the 60m and weekly indicators topped out combined with the position of the daily indicators recent confusion I will lead to a flat to down call for today. The wild card this afternoon (other than the usual 3:30 GS/LPM ramp job) will be speculation on Dell's earnings after the close.

If she should fall - 1115, 1004 and 995 should be support levels. 1115, 1008 and 1001 are the fib retracements. The old gap may come into play around 1004.

We need volume and a catalyst for some real movement IMO. I'm not sure how to feel about the muted reaction to the past few day's news. Very strange.

GL today.

This 5m SPX chart gives a better picture of the falling wedge I think that is in play. You can see (although unlabeled) the triangle above running the top side of this blue falling wedge/diagonal. Also notice the 65ma that catches tops and bottoms pretty well. The ma is splitting price IMO meaning confusion on direction. This chart and all my charts are real time at my chartbook on SC. Link to right.

Wednesday, August 26, 2009

OOOOH She's Getting Toppy (Or Is She?) And Some News

First to the news. It never ceases to amaze me the crap that we are fed daily thru the media moguls. I guess they think they know what "sells" best, so why report the important shit that may make a difference in your life? Glad I am not stamped out of the standard sheeple form. That would suck, but then again, I would not know it.

USA today reports that more demand will be front loaded to make the back end worse. No not really. In Appliances get their own recycled clunkers programs we learn that "But old energy-hogging refrigerators and freezers qualify for recycling and cash from more than 60 utilities across the nation. And the federal government is making money available to states so consumers could get rebates of $50 to $200 for new, more energy-efficient appliances later this year in a so-called "cash for appliances" program.".

The article also covers the success of the CARS program, but what does the major rag leave out? Let Denninger at The Market Ticker fill in the blanks. In Government (And Car Dealers) Hose You Again, Karl gives you the low down on the truth behind the curtain. "So you get nailed at least once and possibly twice. Specifically, you pay sales tax on the full vehicle price (effectively paying sales tax on the $4,500!) and what's worse those states that tax income (that would be most of them!) might wind up counting this as income for state income tax purposes too, effectively taxing you twice."

While we're bangin on bullshit media reports, how could we leave CNBS out of the equation? That would not be fair and equal treatment since they are the crown jewel of crap. TD at Zero Hedge pulls this gem in 16 Year Low In Housing Inventory On Record 1,939,197 Foreclosures. The title kind of says it all. Maybe the market is now seeing thru their shit as the muted response to their reports are now becoming more common.

If you have not seen it on ZH or many other sites, the article of the day comes from Chris Martenson, The Shell Game - How the Federal Reserve is Monetizing Debt. This was written for his subscribers back in early august and just released. Must read central if you want to understand how they are financing (term used loosely) our recovery. "The Federal Reserve is monetizing US Treasury debt and is doing so openly, both through its $300 billion commitment to buy Treasuries and by engaging in a sleight of hand maneuver that would make a street hustler from Brooklyn blush. This report will wade through some technical details in order to illuminate a complicated issue, but you should take the time to learn about this because it is essential to understanding what the future may hold." If you want to understand most likely the greatest threat to our country's future (IMO) read it. I liken it to the Rolling Stone GS article by Talibi.

As for the market, I am now doing a morning post, so check in the am if you want to know what I am thinking about the day ahead. So far so good on the call. 1 for 1 baby! Maybe I should quit now? (see below). Right now some are calling the top as being in and others say we are getting close. I am skeptical that the top is in, but would not be surprised if it is. I think we need a major down day to mark the moment. I am of the opinion that they will not let it go just yet. They may need one more month to get the quarterly statements right. I'm sticking with my 1050 to 1121 top in October (12th to be exact).

The indicators are severely overbought. I do not like what the dailys are doing right now as they are sitting in a precarious spot looking to go wither way. The 60m indicators have proven not to be reliable as can be seen during this last run up when they fell the whole time and had zero effect on the market. The weeklys are topping. Volume is dead of course. The VIX might flat line down here with the economy.

Tomorrow has jobs and GDP. I am not sure how they will massage the numbers yet. I added a second third to my SDS position today with some caution and a tight stop at the close(first entry at 1006 SPX). Dangerous before the numbers, but willing to take the risk with the small play and the possibility that any pop will be short lived. The market has been ignoring some of the "good" news here and feels toppy. We'll see.

GL trading.

Or view chart HERE.

Morning Market - Down To Flat

Good morning. I may start doing a morning post.

UPDATE: The SPX closed today -.01% down. So the down to flat call was a winner.

60m indicators headed south. Daily indicators still slightly bullish but weakening. Weakly very toppy with little room to run. The lower channel trendline is clearly busted. The daily price on SPX was wedged between the upper BB and the lower trendline. The upper BB won the battle as expected. At this time, given the position of the indicators I am not anticipating a backtest of the lower trendline (depending on how they manipulate the jobs number and the GDP number may disqualify that call).

The good news continues to be surprisingly ignored. I don't expect much today with jobs and GDP numbers still to come. Market may be pricing in some more bad news (remember when bad news was good news?).

The channels are very clear, but we have not left the GSEC yet (large channel that encompasses the rally off the bottom). The sky blue lines are the .25, .50 and .75 percent dividers of the channel. Pay attention to these areas as support/resistance spots. The next one below sits near 1013. The fibs for this fall are at 1115 (38%), 1008 (50%) and 1001 (62%). The BB 20 is at 1002 and the lower BB is at 973 on the daily.

Two weeks showing the breakdown. I can not make anything of the pattern yet coming out of the breakdown. I would like to see a lower low set so we can get a falling wedge going.

The GSEC - big channel.

I posted the monthly chart below so you can see the RSI at the trendline. This is something I have been watching for some time. Better viewed HERE.

Tuesday, August 25, 2009

Judge Rakoff Set To Expose Every Detail Of Wall Street's Usage Of The SEC As A Bidet

Must read from Zero Hedge. What a great read to start the day!

Judge Rakoff Set To Expose Every Detail Of Wall Street's Usage Of The SEC As A Bidet

Cry Baby Timmay And Some Other Items

No time tonight for a lot of extras. I clipped some of the best stuff I could find from the usual suspects today. I'd read it from bottom up (it is better that way). I am leaving the Ben rehired off the list, cause it was expected. They would not do anything to disturb the markets now. I do expect him to be fired before O's first and only term is up.

Mish - Talks about the wizardry of the grand illusionists and how they have all (well, most) of us fooled in Buying into the Rally, Hook, Line, and Sinker, "Whatever those earnings expectations are, disappointments are likely. Either earnings will miss targets, or the stock market will sink anyway because the earnings and then some have long been priced in. However, that is tomorrow's business. Today's business is about buying into the rally hook line and sinker, just as the charlatan wizards have hoped."

Prag Cap - Has an unusual Grantham bear quote? This is strange and almost makes me want to be bullish. JEREMY GRANTHAM SAYS STOCKS ARE OVERVALUED BY 15%. I guess he has to say this once every 10 years. "Mr. Grantham sees “seven lean years” of a sluggish market ahead, to atone for what the firm believes was a long era of overpriced stocks, according to his newsletter."

Naked Cap - A little diddy on the BDI in Baltic Dry Index Down 45% From High in June "Chinese imports have been a driving factor in commodities demand, which drives the BDI. The price of imported iron ire has dropped below $100 a ton and may fall further."

The Big Picture - A good chart of the BDI since we are on the subject Daily Baltic Dry Index Volatility.

Clac Risk - This is a good one. With the "positive Schiller numbers out today, this brings you back to reality nicely. Misc: A possible 1991 House Price Headline, and Falling Rents in NYC. "Imagine a headline in June 1991 (if Case-Shiller was around): "House Prices increase at 11.6% annualized rate in June!" The horrible price declines were over ... right? Nope. Real house prices declined for almost another 5 years. Just something to remember."

The Market Ticker - I'll let Denninger handle the rosy Consumer Confidence numbers. August Confidence and Richmond Fed "If we had learned ANYTHING from the 2001-2006 debt bubble it should have been that such "programs" make the inevitable collapse WORSE."

And last but not least, from Zero Hedge - Cry baby Timmay interview where he goes into Geithner: "Fed Audit Would Be Problematic For The Country". I think a little justice wouldn't hurt, don't you? (well, it may hurt someone, but it won't be us)

GL Trading

At This Moment In Time.

I'm looking for a pullback soon as the parabolic run should have an end. Vol drying up and top BB on the 60 and daily charts is in the way. The "pinch" of price between the upper BB and the lower trendline has to give and the indicators are saying overbought, thus I'm guessing pullback to the gap fill or 1015 level for the 2 of C. 3 of C up should be interesting. Add to that the market is not really reacting to all the good news this am. Strange - maybe the 3:30 ramp job will pick it up.

Note: the 60m indicators really don't mean shit these days. Look at them on this chart decline the whole time of the A leg up of this run. Amazing.

Monday, August 24, 2009

Let's Rip On Some P3 Tonight!

Back to my roots! Let's bang on some nitty gritty tonight as the stakes are getting higher and the disinfo is getting worse. Seeing thru the numbers and bullshit is what we are looking to do. Uncover the truth. Get the word out to the masses that things are not at all right and getting worse at a pace faster than things are "getting better".

I am so tired of all the crap I hear regarding green shoots and mustard seeds or that long dead "krocus" call that bimbohead made that was as short lived as her career should be. The glossing over of bad data or the outright misrepresentation of the facts should be enough to make you want to explode. Hell, even Hufpost is getting into the act on truth reporting. When you hit that stage you know that dire straights are ahead.

IMO the public is finally catching on. I'm guessing that when 38% of the homes in the country are underwater and their portfolios are worth half what they once were even the sheeple are beginning to stir. The Daily Presidential Tracking Poll has our president at all time low ratings. "Today’s Approval Index rating reflects a slight improvement from yesterday’s record low of -14. The number who Strongly Approve ticked up a point while the number who Strongly Disapprove has moved down a point. Today is the President’s third straight day with an Approval Index rating in negative double digits." Just so you know I am not "picking" on the president, I'll add the sentiment of how the the people of the great state of Michigan feel about the economy, "In Michigan just 2% rate the economy as good or excellent while 79% say poor." Uh, that's TWO precent.

Let's move on to some market manipulation. I'll give ZH and TD a break on HFT and let Denninger take it this week. In The Lie Of "High Frequency Trading" Liquidity Karl does a great job of describing just how the illusion of liquidity is controlled and how you and I get screwed on most every trade. "So when you put in your "buy" order the HFT guys jump with glee, because they just screwed you - their pumped price gets "sold to you", but worse, the offer suddenly disappears, because there was in fact only 1,000 shares out there - all the other "offers" and "bids" were REFLECTIONS that the computer can cancel faster than you can hit them, and they DO! As the offer collapses the price skyrockets, and the rest of your order executes at a very nasty price indeed." So there you have it on plain english. Pumped price, false liquidity, and a screwed investor all in the name of profit and saving the market.

If you are looking for some cheery posts from Mish, fughedaboutit. Let's tag two! First Mish lays the wood to the falsified RE recovery in Hidden Backlog of Foreclosures. "RealtyTrac's Sharga says "We don't see much improvement until 2011." With that, mainsteam thought is staring to approach the 2012 possible bottom I suggested two years ago. At the time, no one thought home prices would fall for this long. Perhaps I will turn out to be an optimist."

UPDATE on the morgage issues: I have to throw in the ZH post Taylor, Bean, Whitaker Files For Bankruptcy, 12th Largest Mortgage Lender In H1. ""Beginning on or about August 5, 2009, Colonial froze all of TBW's accounts and refused to accept deposits, honor checks, receive wire transfers, or permit disbursements." One wonders how much the other 81 bank failures YTD have impacted existing bank-mortgage lender relationships. If one listens to the news, likely none at all... until it is of course impossible to hide these." This is just not good at all.

In Critically Under-Capitalized Banks Direct Result of "Wonderful Chain of Stupidity" Mish has a great read that is summed up here, "The WSJ article notes 'There are 1,400 banks that own mortgage-backed securities that aren't backed by government-related entities such as Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac." What we don't know is how many of those banks are levered up enough in garbage mortgages to fail." Any questions about your banks that are so well capitalized or the really "solvent" FDIC that has to insure the accounts?

I called a near term top in XLF today (see post below) and mentioned I would be playing it as if it were the big drop just in case. Well leave it up to TD and Zerohedge to come up with this gem Financials Underperform As Flight To 30 Year "Quality" Becomes Sprint. "Notably, the index and single name put/call ratio has been ramping higher, indicating big players are starting to hedge aggressively against a material drop. However, this is certainly not the first time, and on most prior occassions this move ended up being a headfake. Then again, on prior occassions the market was never as massively overbought as it has become now." The headfake is what I am guarding against in my speculation one more pop is in order. They can't let the market fail PERIOD. When it goes, almost all wealth goes and anarchy in the streest will happen.

Folks, P3 is coming. It is getting closer day by day. The lies and manipulation can not continue indefinately. They will continue the pump and dump until the tournip has no more blood left. As noted here previously, the insider selling is at rediculous levels. Those in the know are hauling ass and you should be preparing to do the same - just not quite yet.

I'll have a Mortimer Duke, "SELL SELL" post in the am. The 60m SPX is ripe for a tumble and the daily looks to be wanting to turn (whipsaw intervention not guarnateed).

GL trading.

My Thoughts On This XLF Top.

Yes, I said XLF top. I am sure some of you were beginning to wonder if that word was still in my vocabulary. Well, it is, but unfortunately I am seeing this as an intermediate top before further move up. 60m, daily and weeklys are tired and in the weekly chart below you can see the trendline XLF is appraoching.

To put it in a nutshell, I will play this as the big fall, but do not expect it to be. I have a 12.40 target then ramp up to new highs. I expect XLF to complete at least a 38% retracement of "the fall" around 17.42. This would mean a really happy end of the year for those in financials. It makes no sense I know, but this is what I think "they" have in store for us.

I expect the wedges in each chart to have the lower trendlines reset. Yes, they look like pretty complete wedges, but IMO the indicators are not set for any major tumble. No significant divergences have been set. I'll be watching the weekly RSI trendline as a key for the big one.

Notes are in the charts. Your feedback is appreciated.

GL trading.

Still In The GSEC

The small channel in the last post below is the itty bitty channel on the right side of this chart. Gonna do some chart posts this week and work on getting back into the P3 news articles as well. GL trading this week. Keep the stops tight is my suggestion.

Got Us A Channel

Not a GSEC, but the /ES is trending up nicely.

Friday, August 21, 2009

Weekend Video Viewing Pleasure - Demonstration Of Support And Resistance

Support can give a little, but it provides a bounce that can create wonderful effects. When continually bouncing off of support the subject can gyrate wildly and cause euphoric feelings with the visual effects.

Sadly, just like with todays market, when things become bloated and fat support will eventually break and everything will come crasing down to earth.

Hope you enjoyed the ramp job this week. Opex is behind us now. Have a great weekend.

SPX - A Red And Black Wedgie

I don't see how, technically, this red wedge will not lead to a throwover top of the black wedge that should eventually lead to a pullback of some significance.

At this point I am imagining that the red wedge break will be a 1 of 1 of P3 and the black wedge width will be 3.1.3. Talk about an ass kicking. Of course if those comprise 1 of 3 then what the heck would 3 of 3 be like? That is hard to grasp, which is why I believe that P3 wil have wave 1 possibly be the longest of the three waves with 3 and 5 being increasingly shorter. Just something to ponder over the weekend. We're gonna crash. When is the great question. The higher we go the harder we will fall.

Thursday, August 20, 2009

SPX - Anyone Confused?

The markets reaction the the unemployment numbers really had me hot this am. So who gives a damn if we are still dumping jobs at over 500k per week. Buy the market up at any cost!I guess opex has had it's way with the bears this week. Rolled 'em up and threw 'em under the bus and then backed over them for good measure. Anyone feel that way? Raise your hand now please.

Yesterday I went with the supposedly prevailing sentiment and the indicators, but left myself a big out. My gut and the daily indicators were telling me I might need to get the green jersey out of the closet, but the indicators had just not confirmed it and were still in bear mode. I had to go with what the carts said.

Today, the message is still not clear. I am on the side of manipulation as the unemployment numbers were shrugged off and other announcements this am were bullshit signals assisting in the slow but sure "verification" that the bottom is in and the recession is ending. My freaking ass it is. We're screwed and that is a 100% certainty.

You all know why and I'm not gonna rehash it here and now. There are at least 25 factors that lead to the potential demise of this country to a third rate nation. No shit, I'm not joking and if you don't see it, well then hopefully your meds will be cheaper in the government option of the new HC plan. This has everything to do with the market being PURELY MANIPULATED. It is so blatant that it is a joke.

One new interesting theory thrown out today in the ZH comments section is - could China be behind some of the cash being pumped into the market. Of the billions they have pulled out of treasuries, did they roll them into the market to assist in the world of stick saves? Think about it.

As for the charts - a little different from yesterday, My suspicions were nuts on about the daily indicators turning, BUT watching the RSI, I will not be convinced the bull run is in till the trendline is broken (as of the time of the post DOW futures down 75). The 60m did not turn and has begun the embed process.

The BIG DIFFERENCE from yesterday is I have added a top trendline that makes for a nice triangle at the top (It is drawn as if the market stopped at it yesterday). Does it need an E touch of the bottom trendline before the breakout? If the triangle is drawn right it measures 43 points - a measured breakout gets us close to the 1050 magical target.

NOTE: at this point I have not given up on my pipe dream of SPX hitting 945, getting a proper retracement out of this fall and resetting the lower rising wedge line so the climb can continue to my October target top. The weeklys are still headed south and I want a dog gone divergence in the weekly indicators. This should be the time they come. If not, more upside to come IMO.

I'm not sold on the long theme till RSI breaks, but when it does I may be balls deep long. Have a great weekend. Opex will be gone for another month thank goodness. I can't wait for to see what Sept and Oct bring. We're closing in on a top for sure. You might get a rant this weekend! Any suggestions for videos for the weekend would be appreciated.

Note: I added a Facebook Follower thingy on the right. I would appreciate it if you would hook me up with a follow if you use FB. You can be my friend too. LOL.

Pre Market /ESU9

SPX ran up to just under gap resistance on the hopes that the jobs number would be better than expected. Since it was not (or it was not as manipulated as in the past), we have the reversal (as predicted by the 60m indicators in the chart from last night's post). Those that got in pre-market this am got great entries I believe. The fat pink line is the 61.8% retracement of the fall off 1018. Not sure about the channel, but that to trendline is rock solid. 987 is the fib retrace target of this run up.

I really want to welcome new follower "Mastt" and give him Shanky's award for Best Blogger Photo Of The Year. That will make a GSEC stand up!

GL today.

SPX Today - She's Goin Down And You Will Like It! (Plus Dollar, Oil, Vix and Shanghai)

OK, so we made it thru a false pop today because the rumors of a second stimulus were going around (now if someone would explain to me A) why that is a good idea and B) how is it possible - anyway you now know what to look out for in the future when that talk starts going around - IMO it is realistic but unrealistic if you know what I mean).

Note - The width of the BB's on the daily chart are extremely tight indicating something is about to bust. Up or down? That is what I am trying to decipher.

Bear case - Bottom line is the weekly and daily indicators are headed south and the 60m (see chart below) is topping out and possibly rolling over. That puts all three in line for a powerful move if it happens.

Bull case - 1) the 60m turn signals are not confirmed yet 2) the action of the RSI on the daily chart (holding 50 and headed up), the MACD hist on the daily is stopping its fall, the S Sto on the daily appears to be losing some momo.

I'm hoping the rollover of the 60m and having the opex trade out of the way will make room for more downside action. I want 945 so bad I can taste it. I have two channels drawn on the chart (red and Blue). All lines are copies of the other. They both would make for nice targets. The tight ass BB's on the daily indicate something is about to bust a move big time, so be careful if you are short or long. When it runs, you'll know what team to be on.

My other thoughts - on the VIX - Well, I'm not going to call it totally irrelevant, but it may have lost some of it's luster IMO. I honestly think it will put in the dead cat bounce and possibly go for the backtest of the falling wedge. This will occur on the last hurah as the market climbs to 1050 after this correction. If the $SSEC Shanghai index is any indication, it has led the SPX and with this most recent fall after peaking, maybe, just maybe, the trend holds. As for the dollar and oil - who the heck knows. They are both so manipulated. I'm guessing the bottom is in for the dollar and a top is in on oil, but those are only guesses.

Feedback welcomed - GL trading!

Daily Chart Link

Daily Indicator Chart Link

Weekly Indicator Chart Link

Tuesday, August 18, 2009

Looks Like A Bear Flag To Me (/ES 15m Chart)

/ES 15m blue falling wedgie (Let's call that a 1st wave of some sort - not a 1 of a P3 IMO but could be). Breakout channel. Fib retrace zone in yellow above. If corrective is ABC and C=A target 998 right at 61.8 fib retrace and wedgie target. 60m indicators favoring further strength at this point. Who's buying into op ex? You bastards!

New look TOS chart for Shanky - trying to change things up a little.

Shanky Makes The Market Ticker Blogroll

In what some would describe as a great marriage, I am truly flattered to have been added to Karl Denninger's The Market Ticker's blogroll.

My long term readers and permabear buddies know that I often link to posts from Karl because of his excellent, insightful, honest and timely reporting on the financial crisis. Karl does top drawer work focusing on the true problems facing the nation today. There is no fluff, no green shoots and no BS in his posts regarding this financial crisis just the truth.

To learn more about Karl visit Karl Denninger's Home Page here.

Please visit The Market Ticker if you have not and take a look around. Karl has developed quite a community and his site is a great resource for news and traders.

Thanks a bunch Karl for including me in your blogroll and for all your fine work!

Shanghai Index And Why Is China Pulling Out Of Treasuries?

With so much discussion about China vs. US markets, I thought I would throw the $SSEC vs. the SPX on a chart and see what pops. What I got was sort of interesting. See notes in chart. $SSEC does not look healthy at all on a weekly chart. Just getting pummelled. As with the SPX, I would like to see divergences in the indexes before the big fall. This is a healthy impulsive start to a larger downturn for sure.

On a more sour note for the US debt funding machine the BBC reports that China reduces holdings in US debt. "China reduced its holdings of US government debt by the largest margin in nearly nine years in June, according to data from the US Treasury."

What makes sense is their argument for why. "In recent months the US government's budget deficit has widened thanks in part to the Obama administration's costly stimulus plan. Our correspondent in Shanghai says that China is worried about this, and fears the stimulus efforts will fuel inflation in the US, reducing the value of the dollar. This would then erode the value of the debt China holds in the US currency. In June, China cut its holdings of US securities by about $25bn, a fall of 3.1%." This goes against all thoughts of the dollar bottoming out.

Maybe they just want cash for stimulus. Maybe since they are in a position to directly effect our monetary value, they are in play trying to control the value of the dollar thru treasury withdrawals. Bottom line is they are going in reverse and this will significantly effect the reflation theme that Big Ben and Timmay are pushing. China's withdrawal from treasuries was always near the top of my list of P3 catalysts.

H/T to Barracuda and Master33 from Kenny's commentary for the ideas.

Your thoughts and comments are welcomed.

GL trading.

Monday, August 17, 2009

So Is This How It Ends? (Part One)

No charts necessary. You all have seen the rising wedges all over the place. You all are familiar with the fact that SPX has had a 38% retracement. You all know the VIX broke the falling wedge this morning. You all know about the super high PE ratio of the market. You all know about the ridiculous commodity rally. You all know about the extreme economic conditions. The question is have the indices topped and is this fall finally here? It is hard to believe that it is not.

Folks, I believe the Fed and Treasury are out of money. We know the treasury has hit its ceiling and will most likely be requesting an increased credit line soon. It will have to because the FDIC is bankrupt. In As of Friday August 14, 2009, FDIC is Bankrupt Mish covers last Friday's bank failures and determines, "If indeed $641 million was all that remained of the DIF, the FDIC is now bankrupt. Of the $641 million left, Community bank used up 781.5 million and Colonial Bank $2.8 billion". This is really not good given the CIT problem, this report from Calc Risk Report: Guaranty Bid Deadline Tomorrow, Corus Sept 3rd and the numerous bankruptcies to come.

ZeroHedge offers up July Capital One Charge-Offs And Delinquencies Worse Across The Board and "Fed July Loan Officer Survey - Crunch Continues" where you get a real dose of the troubles the consumer and small businesses are facing on a daily basis.

Back to Mish (who is on a roll) with Brace for a Wave of Foreclosures, the Dam is About to Break. "More than 15.2 million U.S. mortgages, or 32.2 percent of all mortgaged properties, were in negative equity position as of June 30, 2009 according to newly released data from First American CoreLogic. As of June 2009, there were an additional 2.5 million mortgaged properties that were approaching negative equity. Negative equity and near negative equity mortgages combined account for nearly 38 percent of all residential properties with a mortgage nationwide." We all have read the DB forecast that expect these totals to be near 48% in a year.

As proof the consumer is tapped out Mish and Prag cap both have posts on the horrendous back to school sales numbers. If these are bad then Christmas won't be good either IMO. From Prag Cap you get BACK-TO-SCHOOL SEASON A DUD. "Now we are seeing horror stories when it comes to the back-to-school season — have a look at Retailers See Slowing Sales in Key Season on the front page of the Saturday NYT. As it turns out, Citigroup analysts are forecasting the softest back-to-school sales performance this year — a decline, the first time since their poll began in 1995. They see August-September coming in at down 3.0-4.0% compared with +1.0% in 2008 when everyone seemed to believe the world was coming to an end."

That is enough for this post. Things are really dreadful, but CNBS would never let you know this. With a slew of more bank failures to come, pension plan failures, foreclosures, lack of credit, a dead consumer that provides 70% of GDP and a HC plan we can not afford there really is no hope. It is a matter of time, and I think the clock is reading 00:00. I will add to this post in new and separate ones all this week.

Ratigan Interviews Dan Gross On Unemployment Issue.

The profit concoction du jour, if you fire all your workers then you make more $$. Ratigan interviews Dan Gross of Newsweek and Slate on the current unemployment situation. Dan, "No great expectations that employment will really bounce back". 6.2mn unemployed and their time on the clock is running out. We are doing more with less. We are sending jobs to China, outsourcing is up and productivity is thru the roof. We are surviving recession thru reducing employment. This has led to a very dangerous concentration of wealth not seen since the last great depression. Ratigan, "We have never had more wealth in a smaller group of hands." Bottom line is job growth is non existent and won't be for a while. Something tells me there is something flawed with this profit model. Ya think?

VIX Breakout?

The last time this happened it got sucked back in. I don't think so this time given the dow vol donimance this move has vs. the last time.

Sunday, August 16, 2009

UNG Time

Many emails asking for a UNG update, so here it is. I'm looking for continued weakness thru the end of the year, then the trendlines on the indicators run out of room to fall as well as the falling wedge will play out. Even then I am not expecting a big pop then as continued weakness in overall economic conditions persist. It may just form some sort of range bound bottom I'm guessing and this may just be the beginning. The major downtrend line is busted, but the reaction to that was to form a falling wedge. Thus, IMO the bottom is being set, but will remain in place fro a long time.

The divergences on the 60m say a pop will possibly be coming soon. The gap around 12.20 may provide support or be a target price is after. The daily appears near a bottom and the weeklys are coming up on trendline support. The lower BB and trendline jive really well around 11.74. Don't just look at the 60m chart and call it good. To get in tune with price movement, you need to look at the daily and weekly indicators as well.

Trading UNG for 10 to 20% pops is a good thing, but looking for it to kick some serious butt and make a major move is insane. The fundamentals are not there. Remember a few UNG posts back I spoke of contango and the forward price? This is the true key to trading this. If you have knowledge that the forward prices are higher, it will go up. If not, then the slide continues as the contango evaporates. That being said, as long as production is being cut and demand continues to fall, don't be looking for any miracles here.

I expect new lows to be set before this is all over. Links to the daily and weekly charts are below. GL trading.

60m UNG viewed better here.

Daily UNG viewed better here.

Weekly UNG viewed better here.

Friday, August 14, 2009

A Threefer Video Weekend - Tyler Durden On Max Keiser - I May Giz Right Here Right Now

A threefer video weekend bonus play! The guru of economic doom meets a smarter version of Wall St Pro 2 without the shit hanging from the ceiling. Give it a good listen. The second vid is the meat. Thanks TD for going on the show. Can't wait for your podcasts.

The Truth - Ronald Reagan Speaks Out Against Socialized Medicine

Another video for your weekend viewing pleasure. Lets call it a twofer! This is a classic that demonstrates how the man was really on his game. This dude was a true American. In this must watch video you'll hear a very important and telling message. Just how long have they wanted socialized medicine? How long has this been in the works? Were the problems as great back then as now or do the problems really exist as they say? Listen carefully. This is the money shot.

Hat tip to BT310 from my Irreverent Political Commentary blog for this excellent find!

Ronald Reagan Speaks Out Against Socialized Medicine

Weekend Video Pleasure With - Subliminal Advertising

Why not? What are they teaching you that you do know realize? This vid is an older one, but still good. I thought the guy drawing pictures around 3:30 was cool. Something to think about while watching the boob tube this weekend. I hope you all have a great weekend.

Thursday, August 13, 2009

A Qucik Look At A Chart

The weekly and monthly indicator charts are what I think could be my most telling of when the turn will happen (and that may not be as soon as you think). Sentiment is building, insiders are selling, all of the shit is boiling to the surface, but what will it take to get the indicators on these two charts to go red? The market is climbing the wall of worry right now. The suckers are getting sucked in. The pump and dump is in full swing. Note - the divergences I am looking for in the below commentary are not necessary, but would be nice to see. I will be playing this fall as if it could be the big one, but I would not be surprised to see one last run at a higher high.

Let's look at the weekly first. Link here for better viewing.

The weeklys are not ready IMO. Sure they are peaking and overbought, but not one real divergence is set other than the MACD histogram. RSI broke a major trendline at the bottom after setting up a 5 month negative divergence. I was hoping that his last pop up would set the divergence for the fall, but nooooo they had to climb to new highs. MACD histogram is there, but again no divergence in the indicator or signal lines. My favorite turn indicator (a cross in S Sto) is happening, but the set up is not for a major move south given the indicators around it. There is no divergence in CCI, no ADX sell signal, even the TRIX is not in the game yet. The RSI setting a divergence and then crossing the trendline will be my key for P2 to end.

Now lets look at a monthly chart. Link here for better viewing.

I have been harping on the monthly RSI trendline for a while now. Will it turn here? It is right at it. Bullish and bearish signals are all over the place. There are a lot of similarities like at the last bottom in '03. The bull cross has occurred in F and S Sto and MACD. MACD his is positive at the moment. These can all whipsaw in an instant. Some odf the more bearish indicators can be seen in the declining volume, SPX approaching the 200ma, TRIX not close to going positive, ChiO is ballistic, SPXA50 is in the stratosphere, BPSPX in way up and the P/E ratio is totally unsustainable.

Right now IMO it looks eerily similar to the '03 bottom almost all the way down the chart. This means nothing though. I have seen overbought dailys sneak their way to the bottom without generating any huge sell offs, yet in this case I think the market gets a sizable pullback soon (SPX 945-924 target range). The weekly and monthly indicators are not ready for a big fall just yet. I'm really curious about what happens with RSI and the trendline and with price at the 200ma (not to mention the overbought dailys and the rising wedge and decreasing vol and the P/E levels). A good fall, but not the big one. Wait for the indicators to set proper divergences and violate trendlines on the weekly charts. The signals will be there and a massive impulsive move will define the top. Hang in there. It's coming. Play it like this is the big one, but keep one eye on the bulls and the possibility of further strength. I don't think the manipulators have thrown in the towel just yet.

They Are Moving The Rocket To The Launching Pad

ZH provides the post of the day with Last Week's Insiders Transactions: 10 Buys For $60 Million, 136 Sells For Over $1.15 Billion. Don't they say something about following the smart money? "Courtesy of Finviz, the ratio of insider buying to selling transactions is 10 to 136. Total transaction value: Buys: $60.1 million; Sells: $1,146 million. This compares with last week's buys for $13.4 million and sells for $1,042 million. Over $2.1 Billion in insider sales in two weeks." If that ain't a green shoot I don't know what one is. Things getting worse is good, right? I have been talking about the pump and dump for sometime (since early April). Even Elizabeth Warren mentioned it in the vid yesterday, yet some still reuse to believe that the light in the end of the tunnel is not a higher place but the train that is gonna smack them straight in the face. What the heck do you think your TARP funds have been doing, creating Jobs?

Speaking of job growth. How were those jobs numbers today? No need to be redundant with a link here, I think you all know the numbers. You would never know they were worse based on market reactions. If that ain't a green shoot I don't know what one is. Things getting worse is good, right?

Calc Risk has a nice report on Report: Record Foreclosure Activity in July. "“July marks the third time in the last five months where we’ve seen a new record set for foreclosure activity,” noted James J. Saccacio, chief executive officer of RealtyTrac. “Despite continued efforts by the federal government and state governments to patch together a safety net for distressed homeowners, we’re seeing significant growth in both the initial notices of default and in the bank repossessions.” If that ain't a green shoot I don't know what one is. Things getting worse is good, right?

Naked Cap rocks the house with - Guest Post: The Next Wave of the Financial Crisis is Coming (And Why). "These excerpts from the most recent TARP Congressional Oversight Panel Report make the risks in the US financial system abundantly clear." This blow by blow view of the COP is really well written. So if the waste of the TARP funds ain't another green shoot I don't know what one is. Things getting worse is good, right?

I think you get the point. Like my last post, it is in the air approaching the fan, and when it hits it will not be pretty.

GL trading.

Wednesday, August 12, 2009

Toxic Assets Still On The Books You Say? Must Watch Video.

This is some good stuff for the permabears. Elizabeth Warren, the chair of the Congressional Oversight Panel, does a great interview on Morning Joe. The green shootists are living in a fantasy world. "You could have big trouble, and I'm gonna make it worse" Warren says when addressing the commercial mortgages coming in 2010 and beyond. "Let's rebuild the bomb", ROF LMAO. This is a great must watch vid.

Update - One of my proudest moments in blogging (second to making the blogroll on the old ZeroHedge) was the super kind HT I got from TD when he linked to my blog in his post on this video. That was way cool. Thanks TD!

Tuesday, August 11, 2009

So, Is It Really About To Hit The Fan? (I'm Back To Normal)

To P3 or not to P3? That is the question. With the apparent topping of the market and the fed now supporting our treasury auctions, is this the beginning of the end? I believe the beginning of the end happened in 2003 with Greenspan's manufactured credit bubble to save the bank's collective asses from all of the mistakes they made in the dot com bubble. You see, if they were not insolvent then, they sure are now. This reflation trade and the recent manufactured rally are last gap efforts to salvage what they can. The great grab you can call it.

Most of you know I think the ratings agencies had a lot to do with the RE debacle. I have spoken to many appraisers that told me about the valuation game they had to play in order to survive and be able to "work" with the banks. Well, are they changing their tune? Have they seen the light? TD at ZeroHedge has this post Moody's Nukes 163 CMBS Classes Due To Maguire Toxic Exposure.

Add to this the post from Calculated risk WSJ: JPMorgan Offering 23 Office Properties For Sale. "J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. is marketing 23 office properties ... with a combined 7.1 million square feet of space, includes four notable towers: One Chase Manhattan Plaza, near Wall Street; Four New York Plaza, also in the Financial District; the former headquarters of Washington Mutual in a downtown Seattle skyscraper that also houses the city's art museum; and a landmarked 1929 Art Deco building in Houston, the former headquarters of Texas Commerce Bank. The portfolio is believed to be the largest single portfolio of office properties to hit the market this year and could raise more than $1 billion." Folks the CRE crash IS coming. There will be no stopping it. This will be the P3 event that kills the REITS and finally brings down the banks that are "to big to fail".

Denninger at The Market Ticker loves to beat on the credit issue (deservedly so). In Banking and Credit: It Is NOT Over Karl has, "We still have banks that are engaged in what amounts to accounting fraud when looked at through any sort of objective lens, but its all "OK" because we have "accounting rules" that say you can claim something is worth more than it really is." Karl takes the verbiage from the Congressional Oversight Panel and puts it nicely in plain English.

Mish has Government Bailouts and the Stock Market - The Seen and the Unseen in which he does a good job explaining many of the problems to come. I like his comparison to Japan since 1990 as to where we are headed. (that is 28 years of hell OBTW). "The worst recession since the 1930's is the payback for the credit boom, while the payback for the bailouts is coming down the line. The likely payback for all these bailouts is structurally high unemployment and a stock market that goes nowhere for years to come."

Pragcap has ROBERT PRECHTER: NEW LOWS ARE COMING where Prechter takes down all the green shoots and explains the EWT side of the story. This is Prechter's count and there are many others. Kenny has us in an ABC while Dan and I agree on the P2 scenario. I am somewhere in between.

And for you people planning on attending a town hall meeting Bloomberg reports How to Speak to an Unruly Crowd. You can read thru this post and learn how to cut off your representative at the pass. The last sentence says it all, "It takes a strong sense of self to face a restless crowd. The operative principle when engaging an audience is control. If you have it, continue; if you lose it, retreat."

Folks, we have realistically insolvent banks with all of the TARP funds not lending to the dead and increasingly unemployed consumer who is busy paying off debt and leaving their upside down mortgages in their past and FRE and FNM holding the bag while having their credit limits cut to the bone and the government is pumping GDP like there is not tomorrow and we all believe the green shoots are so real we'll be able to serve them as a side salad before your last supper.

CRE crash is coming. The banks will have to face the truth (accounting fraud can't go on forever - can it?). HFT manipulation will stop eventually. The market will top, but when? And how deep will it go after reality bites everyone in the butt? I don't think this is "it" yet. They have more tricks up their sleeves. Remember, they can change the rules as they play the game. The insiders are hard at work completing the pump and dump. The marketeers at CNBS and the other outlets will lead you down the path of righteous bull crap. So do not be surprised if this market should make one last pop, but that one will be the last.

I'm back from the beach and back to normal I guess.

GL trading.

Sunday, August 9, 2009

Introducing Shanky's Irreverent Political Commentary Blog

Well, what can I say? I think it is time to take the trash out and separate the political crap from the more meaningful information. You may be aware that I have several opinions on, well, everything. You may also be aware that I like to speak my opinion. The new blog will allow me to distinguish business from pleasure. The goal is to keep this place clean.

The new blog is for fun and we'll see where it goes. The good news is for those of you that like my rants, you now have two sources. This will also allow my bipolar personality to flourish. I can be like a Two Face with multiple personalities, so this will allow me to spread myself around.

Here is the link to Shanky's Irreverent Political Commentary Blog. Hope to see you there, and thanks for all of your continued support here now and in the future.

Saturday, August 8, 2009

Quick RANT On HC And Our "President"

Thanks to ZH I did not have to look far for something to piss me off (I am at the beach drinking some cool suds and living the life - you are not supposed to get pissed off in that situation), but this jerk really can get in my shit big time.

From Reuters (via ZH) - Healthcare critics make outlandish claims: Obama "President Barack Obama accused his critics on Saturday of resorting to "outlandish rumors" and "misleading information" aimed at derailing his efforts to overhaul the $2.5 trillion U.S. healthcare system."

Misleading information? ROF LMAO - Let me ask this question? Hey BO (LOL, good name), have you read and understand all 1,000 plus pages of this bill? Well, no one else had had a chance to digest it and fully grasp the concepts presented therein, so back off. I get the feeling you are giving the country and congress a HC enema that we have no desire for at this time. Let me say this, you are acting like a 4 year old that is not getting his way and now you are beginning to throw a presidential fit to get your way.

All the facts? ""Some have been using misleading information to defeat what they know is the best chance of reform we have ever had," Obama said, adding it was critical for Americans have all the facts as they meet their lawmakers in home districts." Uh, excuse fucking me, but it is widely known that most have not read or studied the freaking bill?

Hello? BO, it is my opinion that you don't give a SHIT what anyone thinks. You are on some freaking power trip and OBTW we are not your servants. Leave it to one of the fine fellows from the great sate of Georgia to give it back. "Republican Rep. Tom Price of Georgia took aim at this White House move. "When no one is listening to them, sometimes people have to speak up," Price said in a statement released on Saturday." "Rather than listening to the concerns of those who will face the consequences of the legislation, the White House has laughed off the thought that Americans might have sincere concerns about a plan that relies so heavily on government involvement in health care." I could not have said it better. They are laughing off any concern you or I may have regarding this bill. Ain't that sone shit?

This is some real bullshit folks. Please, if you have the chance voice your opinion. I do not care if it is for or against the bill, just say something. I want HC reform. Yes, I am for it, but only in the right way, done in agreement with a bill that has a fucking chance of working that people have studied and understand. Not one shoved down our throat by some fascist pig.

Now, can I please enjoy the rest of my vacation without someone else pissing me off. I doubt it.

Have a great weekend.

Friday, August 7, 2009

Weekend Video Viewing Pleasure - With Some Pissed Off Americans

Gone to the beach for one last summer outing before school starts again. Will be back full time Wednesday, but I will be reporting and updating charts from the beach. I believe the sheeple are waking up. They have had enough. It is only a matter of time before many more wonderful vids like these are coming out weekly.

Thanks for all of your views and comments this week.

Have a great weekend.

UPDATE: Thanks TD and ZH - Beyond Beltway, Health Debate Turns Hostile . Good thing Rahm got that email out in time for everyone to nark on everyone else. We'll all be in those FEMA detention camps soon.

Liar, liar, pants on fire.

Specter shows his ass.

Ron Paul and Ratigan on the Fed audits.

Thursday, August 6, 2009

So, You Wanted A Rant?

Enough of the charts and graphs. Enough of the giddyness we have all been feeling searching for the top of this meaningless recovery. For you P3 fanatics, the bad news is coming at a fast and furious pace and the 38% retracement of the market fall has now legally opened the door for P2 to end.

The news has been so bad over the last week that I'm actually a little freaked out. The run was fun to rant about and made for many good jokes, yet it may not be so funny when the proverbial shit hits the fan. Hey, who gives a shit? Lets laugh in the face of danger. We ain't gonna have shit to laugh at when it is all over anyway.

Time to ax yourself the question - If two wrongs don't make a right, then how come two negatives make a positive? Or in the case of this market, how come many negatives equal a 40% rise in market value? Who the fuck knows? Those were dumb questions anyway.

Remember, all of the following happened within the past week.

When the blind leadeth the blind, get out of the way.

Or as I would say, If you have a blind person leading you, you are one dumb as POS. Let's talk about the Fed leading the Primary Dealers down the primrose path. Chris Martenson laid the wood to Benny when he did a little creative journalism in The Fed Buys Last Week's Treasury Notes. So what the fuck was Ben thinkin? Please tell me? I'm actually speechless. Of course you know this is the worst possible news, cause cash for clunkers will now have to be ditched and the bubble reflation is now in danger. Denninger did good on this one - BLATANT Monetization Uncovered

Ever stop to think, and forget to start again?

Thank you TD - Cornyn On The White House Stasi Solicitation, Or Would McCarthy Love (Hint: Yes). So what the fuck was Rhom thinking? Well, sum bitch has demonstrated that he does not really think much, as creating a Fascist state does not require much brain power and he's doing a damn good job so far. So go tell on me or your neighbor if we poo poo the HC bill. Did you ever think that Alex Jones would be made to look like a prophet? Well, Rhom, you're doing a kick ass job at that too.

In life, there is no backspace button.

Timmay! Timmay! Naked Cap comes thru in Geithner Bullies Financial Regulators to Accept Fed as Top Dog. " Timothy Geithner tongue-lashed Federal financial services regulators over their bucking the Obama Administration initiative for the Fed to become The One Regulator to Rule Them All." (Anyone connecting the dots of this post yet?) Uh, power trip! Shuh, like, dude, you can not just go and shit on everyone to get your way. Stupid me, that is the way Timmay was coached up by Hankey Poo when he bullied ALL OF FUCKING CONGRESS, so Timmay thought the banks would be an easy target. Hey, Timmay, you own 'em already dumb shit. Ya ain't got to do nothin but tell 'em what to do. Ron Paul, you better light a fire under 1207. Where is that backspace button anyway?

If it weren't for the last minute, nothing would ever get done.

Here is where I offer a sacrifice of myself to the God Rham and say bad things about health care. OK, simple. If Ben is busy monetizing the debt we have now, and you guys are looking to sell another $500 billion or so to fund the reflation project, what the fuck are you thinking trying to get this passed right now? So in the last minute you try to cram a 1,000 page bill - that you thought up in the last few months - that is gonna solve the problems of our HC issues for ever more - that you are having to threaten the public to keep their first amendment rights to themselves - so you can get your fucking glory shot at history - before your ratings are lower than the yield of those T-bills Ben is buying from you. O-tay! News flash - Toto, you ain't in Chicago anymore.

I am running out of space, so here is the blitz -

Mish - Wages and Salaries Fell 4.7%, Most On Record - Note to Obama - No jobs and wage deflation is a horrible time to think about anything but creating more jobs. No more to big to fail shit. Sometimes you gotta make sacrifices. Now is your moment. You wanted the job, congratulations, it is yours.

Calc Risk - Foreclosures: One Giant Wave, Still Building. Dude, gnarly waves and some cool bud. My dad's got a bitching set of tools. We can fix it. Note to Obama - FNM lost another 14b and their leader this month. Housing ain't fixed and the only fucking thing you give a shit about is your mark on history and your HC bill. Get a clue dude. You still have three years to get he HC bill passed (and fix MC and SS and hope that all the pensions don't blow up and that there is not a run on the severely underfunded FDIC and .....)

ZH - A Few Pictures Are Worth A Thousand Mortgage Mods See above.

Naked Cap - More on Dubious News Versus Cheery Data Out of China Wait a minute. I thought Cramer said all was well in China. Well, it will be just fine when they ask for all of their money back.

Bloomberg - Sotomayor Is Confirmed to Be First Hispanic Justice This is just fucking great. At least she did not have a tax problem. Her issues with white males won't be a problem either. Phew, I feel better now.

ZH - Judge Rakoff Pours Cold Water On BofA-SEC's Little Complicit Scheme. Note - pay close attention - this is REAL GOOD NEWS. Yes, here is proof that all is not lost (YET). Let's hope this judge is around when the indictments come down from all this mess in a few years.

ZH - TrimTabs Continues Throwing Sand In The Eyes Of Fake Economic Data. If anyone was ever questioning the integrity of the data coming from your fine leaders, now is your chance. Not sure how they are gonna cover this one up now that it is out in the open. Leave it up to CNBS, they can gloss over anything.

The Big Picture - Why CNBC’s Ratings Are Down No shit? You knew things were bad, but when the leader in financial news coverage in the most critical time in our history is losing viewership, you know things are bad. Maybe this is cause no one has a fucking home to live in to watch TV anymore. With the DB forecast of 48% being underwater, the remaining homes might have to give up their plasmas which will further damage viewership. Their reporting of the "facts" of the crisis surely could not be the problem.

Summary -

See, I told you it was a busy week. That is like 5 years worth of really bad shit in one week. You got it all, fraud, fascism, the raping of the constitution, economic collapse, lies, deceit and all from our government. You would think in a week like that CNBS's ratings would be thru the roof? Maybe they are missing the story all together? Nope, the market was up and all is well.

Seriously, I am freaked out. The Timmay deal, Rahm, Ben's monetization, Han Sotomayor, housing, OMG I left out HFT and GS's record trading profits and the liquidity masters of the universe - well, you get where I am coming from. We're fucked, and this nation I am afraid will not be restored to its former glory (as manufactured as it was) for a long long time. The people are getting rightfully upset and my internal fear gauge is spiking. I believe it won't be long till we're all in the streets looking for redemption. That might not come soon enough. One thing is for sure, the market will be just fine.

UPDATE - from CNBS - Obama: May Be Seeing Beginning of Recession's End. "Our financial system is no longer on the verge of collapse. The market is up. Housing prices are up for the first time in nearly three years. So we may just be seeing the very beginnings of the end of this recession," Shuh, Right.

GL trading

$USD Bottoming?

If it has not it should be near. I am of the opinion the low dollar and the high market must be protected at all costs or everything will be proven for the farce it all is. I do not think they will let the dollar run if they can fight it. That is most likely presidential order number two, right behind you needing to report every one's opposition of the HC bill.

Ain't This The Shit?

You have been pwned by your president. If this does not really piss you off I do not know what will. READ THE LETTER IN THE POST. It should scare you shitless. Not sure how I will react to this once I calm down.

From ZH - Cornyn On The White House Stasi Solicitation, Or Would McCarthy Love (Hint: Yes)

Wednesday, August 5, 2009

My Weekly Wave Count Chart

This is a simplistic EWT chart I have that shows what I am thinking. Since it is a mountain, it is obviously not perfect, but the mountain allows the lesser counters to "see" the EWT count better. I do not like the look of the potential 20/50ma cross. We're at the top trendline on this chart in the ABC corrective and on lots of wedges, so is a turn here imperative? Not the "big one" IMO. Not yet at least, but let's see what the lower trendline does here soon. I expect it to be violated on the other charts (see targets in below posts). We may plummet to 950ish here very soon.

Technically where we are now could be considered the E touch of the A-E black wedge forming the ABC AND if you notice on this chart 1004 is the 38% fib line which means a technical retracement is completed. I'm just not ready to call a top yet mainly cause of the formation of the ABC corrective is not complete. It could be though.

Note: Check out the weird ass period of the market at the end of last year where the SPXA50 went from near 0 to over 400 but the market remained fairly flat for the period. Strange.

Link to chart in my chartbook. If you do go there please give me a vote at the bottom of the page. Thanks.

SDS, EEV and QID - The Red Headed Step Children

Who the fuck knew things were so damn rosy out there? I mean looking at these three you would think that any hint of a recession or unemployment or the plethora of other issues that exist don't exist. This is the most screwed up shit I have ever seen. Notes are in the charts. The skid marks - I mean gaps are the brown sharts across the screen. All support resistance lines are with historical points included. These wedges were so easy to draw even prophit got one of them right in TOS.

EEV - Has fallen 91.75% from its 196 top. So things are so good in emerging markets that this has happened. WTF is gonna happen to EEV when things really do recover in 10 years? Previous all time low was 58.12.

SDS - Has fallen - get this - 61.8% off of the top. 40.38 is all time low.

QID - Has fallen 61.8 points from the top (not a fib number, but kind of cool in relation to that number). Anything below 28.46 is setting all time new lows.

SPX - An Overview Of Where We Are

Pretty self explanatory. A GSEC channel (black), a rising wedge (blue) with overthrow in the channel, a smaller channel (red), a mini breakdown if the larger channel and wedge and some targets. I'll believe the fall when the red channel gives way.

GL Trading.

Tuesday, August 4, 2009

Introducing The GSEC - SPX 15min

One of my spontaneous rants at KENNY's site generated the naming of a new chart formation that has caught on, the GSEC (Goldman Sachs Expanding Cock). This is a large channel up that is formed during an unexplained and unwarranted strong move up in the market like the one we have experienced over the past several weeks. When there are no fundamental or technical (or any sensible reason at all for that matter) for a market "rise", and it forms a large channel resembling some huge dildo that they use to fuck the shorts in some violent fashion.

Thus, the GSEC was born. Look for it frequently on a chart near you and be careful. This is not your standard dildo, it is the GSEC. This one is powered by your tax dollars and can be wielded by numerous male and female figures (Pelosi, Frank, Ben, Timmay et-al) without any regard to your personal preferences as to which orifice they decide to fuck you in. Since it has a virtually unlimited power source it can grow to any exponential size they can imagine.

The dangers truly lie in being short when one of these gets aroused. The beating can be humiliating and painful (as some of you know). To date there are no chat rooms that I know of offering support for GSEC abuse, but there should be. So, look out for the formation of these new chart patterns and warn your friends. See chart below for the most recent example.

GL trading.

Monday, August 3, 2009

UNG - Who Lit Their Gas?

KaBoom! Freaking blew a gap in the price you can drive a truck thru.

60m - You can see the falling wedge the best here. The breakout looks great on all the charts. The 60m is almost spent but should embed given the DAILY and WEEKLY indicators. RSI is popping trendlines which I like to see for a real trend change. The break of the LT down blue trendline (seen in the Daily and weekly charts) and close above it may be for real this time. the concerns are the upper wedge line and the two retracement areas around 14.65 and then the BD line (lower trendline) from the triangle backtest.

Whenever You Are Ready SPX.

The "stair steps" are getting shorter and shorter as the wedge plays out. I'm gonna see if there is a "throw over" top, if not I might actually buy some short shit tomorrow. I'll post when I do and what.

There were several posts made today so look below. I'm still not short. Thanks for the views.

VIX About To Bust Out O Here?

No comments necessary. It either does or does not.

What I See $USD Doing

I have $USD in a 5 wave move south with it being in 3.3.5 or in a 5.5 and a target range near 75 or 77.60 gap support. Watch for RSI to break the black trendline. It should explode when that happens.

GL trading.