Sorry for not posting last night or this morning, servers were down and internet access was a no go.
The Greece hot potato is being tossed around still, the ISM numbers were fictionally good, employment was fictionally good and the market closed flat.
Mish's thoughts on the ISM report and some factors surrounding it that you will not read elsewhere are in ISM Service Sector Expands, Backlog of Orders and Employment Still Contracting; Public Sector Catchup Coming. The thing I like most about what Mish is bringing to the table these days is his focus on the state and city level budget shortfalls. These will hit home more than the "national" bullshit you read about on a daily basis. In this post is a link to a recent speech given by the new NJ Governor Christie. Please take a moment to watch this. This guy is ready to kick some butt and take names to get his states budget shortfalls worked out and he does not care who gets pissed. It is the best thing I have heard in a long time. Denninger takes on the ISM BS in We're Schizoid! (Non-Manufacturing ISM). Both are not that impressed and poke unique holes in the report.
You market timers may find this one interesting (I finally went short today BTW) Has Goldman Called The Market Top: GS Sells $3.1 Million Leveraged Index-Linked Notes Referenced To 1123.7 On The S&P. Zero Hedge as usual is above the line on their reporting and timing of reports. This one is quite interesting. Maybe we can take advantage of a tip from the gods on high (and hope like hell it is not a sucker play).
Since everyone else has posted it, I'll complete the circle - No Wonder the Economy Isn't Improving from Washington's Blog is a wonderful post on the idiocy demonstrated by our leaders and an expose of the bullshit that flows endlessly from Washington (sounds like something I would like!).
TPC has this from Rosy - ROSENBERG: THE MARKET LOOKS TOPPY. “In a secular bull market, a six-month trading range can be viewed as a pause that refreshes. But in a secular bear market, it more than likely reflects a classic topping formation, as was the case in the spring and summer of 2007 when the S&P 500 also flirted with the 1,500 mark for as long a period as it has hovered around the 1,100 threshold since last fall. Keep in mind that similar to 2007, we are starting to see some fraying around the edges in the latest set of economic data releases — jobless claims, housing starts and sales, core goods orders and shipments, construction, ISM and consumer confidence.” Put that with the GS report above and some of my fine analysis and I'd say you better be getting those horses saddled up.
In what I thought was the best new of the day, ZH has Philly Fed's Plosser Speaks: Too Big To Fail Must End, "I believe these three actions would go a long way toward improving financial stability. Enacting a credible bankruptcy process to solve the too-big-to-fail problem, clarifying the Fed's umbrella supervision and financial stability roles, and enhancing market discipline are steps we must take to lower the probability of a future crisis. We could simplify the entire financial regulatory legislative initiative by focusing on these three key elements. We do not need huge new bureaucracies, or a complete restructuring of our regulatory agencies." Damn, two tough and sensible speeches in the same week, what, did Washington run out of cool-aide?
Last, but not least, I bring you a radio interview from Bob Chapman that I thought was interesting. I like the way this guy thinks (extreme like me). This may be a bit conspiracy laced for some of you, but maybe it is time to buy into some of those theories. "They are preparing for a large world wide meeting of the kind of the Smithsonian meeting in the seventies and they will decide from there which currency to devalue against which ...The whole Toyota issue is the American government behind the scenes telling the Japanese either you buy my treasuries or I destroy your best exporting part of the industry.... The UK may break up from the European Union, Warren Buffett should be in jail not in CNBC says Bob Chapman , 10 years ago everybody knew that Greece and Italy were in bad shape but everybody looked at the other side ..."
For the latest on the Greece saga, you can always turn to this link at the FT.com.
Have a good evening.
Showing posts with label Calcualted Risk. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Calcualted Risk. Show all posts
Wednesday, March 3, 2010
Wednesday, February 24, 2010
Out On A Limb - A Very Thin Limb!
Up, up, up we go! Thank goodness for the reflation trade. Lord knows our bubble may have burst and that would have been horrendous! Thank goodness the removed FRE and FNM from the federal budget, wrapped them in protective bubble wrap, removed all sharp objects from the room and put them in the closet not to be addressed till 2011. Phew, I feel better now that they have addressed that problem!
Why the out on a limb title? Well, anytime I bring Prechter into the mix it gets dangerous. The timing is better for his prophecy this time. The link Bear Market Armageddon: Why Prechter Might Be Right This Time (the title kind of says it all - this time) takes you to a good article and a series of videos you may want to listen to. The whole series is pretty good. Even better, I don't think he mentions the word "top" once! Bottom line is the vids provide a nice all around primer for everyone.
Further out on the limb I go when I bring you Jon Stewart. Last night he did a great piece on how we're getting screwed by the CC companies in Make it Rain - Bank of America - Wyatt Cenac examines Bank of America's hidden credit card fees with a former employee and a mafia loan shark that is worth a look. The loan shark at the end is really funny.
Since the economy is out on a thin limb why not cover some of the action today. The news today was just as nasty and bountiful as any other, but you never would have known that given the markets actions. The MSM cheer leading propaganda machine tends to neglect major news events as well (or spins them if they should be forced to cover a tough issue).
Mish's site is full of wonderful posts every day (if you are into the doom and gloom thang). Just view the recent posts list on the left side and start reading. Today he has Is Consumer Confidence a Contrarian Indicator?. This is a good one in the case that the bulltards will spin and twist the numbers as big buying signal, but Mish (and I) think differently, "Rather than being a contrarian play, I think consumers have reached the recognition phase, with a panic phase yet to follow. This possibility is something that economists might want to take into consideration if they would ever take off their rose colored glasses and view the real world for how it is. It may be darkest before dawn, but the sun has barely set. The contrarian play is to bet against the masses who misunderstand history."
Pension Pulse has a great post on something I like to key on every now and then, underfunded pension obligations. In Pension Systems on the Brink? you get a nice report that breaks down the major flaws that exist in the $1 Trillion unfunded gap. This is a HUGE deal. States can not fund these obligations (they never have - how could they now). Big brother to borrow from to fund obligations (read - living on xtra credit just like everyone else to get thru) is no longer there. This will be a huge part of the total meltdown (especially after P3 hits and the unfunded portion skyrocket).
I suggest that you troll on over to Calculated Risk and sample the fare there. The news surrounding the RE/housing crisis was not pretty today. CR covers it from every angle.
For those of you that rarely go to Zero Hedge, just pop over there and read the headlines of the posts today. It will make your head spin. (Don't look at yesterday's unless you want your head to spin so fast you wind up getting sick)
LOL, what do we find at the tip of the limb? Denninger on Kaiser Report? Yup, only in Russia can you get something that good. Karl comes on about 14min into the program and then stumbles thru explaining the difficult to explain synthetic CDO's that have wiped out Greece and made the banksters rich biach while some hypnotic circle spins in the background (psychedelics not provided). The whole 30m is worth watching IMO.
Not sure who put the water wings on the markets in the last fifteen minutes of trading or if TOS just has some errors (nothing happened on the minis).
Have a good one.
Why the out on a limb title? Well, anytime I bring Prechter into the mix it gets dangerous. The timing is better for his prophecy this time. The link Bear Market Armageddon: Why Prechter Might Be Right This Time (the title kind of says it all - this time) takes you to a good article and a series of videos you may want to listen to. The whole series is pretty good. Even better, I don't think he mentions the word "top" once! Bottom line is the vids provide a nice all around primer for everyone.
Further out on the limb I go when I bring you Jon Stewart. Last night he did a great piece on how we're getting screwed by the CC companies in Make it Rain - Bank of America - Wyatt Cenac examines Bank of America's hidden credit card fees with a former employee and a mafia loan shark that is worth a look. The loan shark at the end is really funny.
Since the economy is out on a thin limb why not cover some of the action today. The news today was just as nasty and bountiful as any other, but you never would have known that given the markets actions. The MSM cheer leading propaganda machine tends to neglect major news events as well (or spins them if they should be forced to cover a tough issue).
Mish's site is full of wonderful posts every day (if you are into the doom and gloom thang). Just view the recent posts list on the left side and start reading. Today he has Is Consumer Confidence a Contrarian Indicator?. This is a good one in the case that the bulltards will spin and twist the numbers as big buying signal, but Mish (and I) think differently, "Rather than being a contrarian play, I think consumers have reached the recognition phase, with a panic phase yet to follow. This possibility is something that economists might want to take into consideration if they would ever take off their rose colored glasses and view the real world for how it is. It may be darkest before dawn, but the sun has barely set. The contrarian play is to bet against the masses who misunderstand history."
Pension Pulse has a great post on something I like to key on every now and then, underfunded pension obligations. In Pension Systems on the Brink? you get a nice report that breaks down the major flaws that exist in the $1 Trillion unfunded gap. This is a HUGE deal. States can not fund these obligations (they never have - how could they now). Big brother to borrow from to fund obligations (read - living on xtra credit just like everyone else to get thru) is no longer there. This will be a huge part of the total meltdown (especially after P3 hits and the unfunded portion skyrocket).
I suggest that you troll on over to Calculated Risk and sample the fare there. The news surrounding the RE/housing crisis was not pretty today. CR covers it from every angle.
For those of you that rarely go to Zero Hedge, just pop over there and read the headlines of the posts today. It will make your head spin. (Don't look at yesterday's unless you want your head to spin so fast you wind up getting sick)
LOL, what do we find at the tip of the limb? Denninger on Kaiser Report? Yup, only in Russia can you get something that good. Karl comes on about 14min into the program and then stumbles thru explaining the difficult to explain synthetic CDO's that have wiped out Greece and made the banksters rich biach while some hypnotic circle spins in the background (psychedelics not provided). The whole 30m is worth watching IMO.
Not sure who put the water wings on the markets in the last fifteen minutes of trading or if TOS just has some errors (nothing happened on the minis).
Have a good one.
Monday, February 1, 2010
At Some Point.....
At some point the lying, cheating and stealing will have to stop, but it wont be this week (or next, or....). So, any good news? Not unless your favorite college team stole a recruit from a hated rival.
Let's get on with it.
The first order of business today is The Treasury Is Soliciting Your Feedback Regarding The Proposed Annuitization Of 401(k). Yes, step two is happening and rather quickly. I think they are pretty serious about this move. They want to tap your retirement savings to save the nation (whether you like it or not). The full letter is in the ZH post. Please use the email wisely and forward it to everyone one of your contacts. "For readers who feel compelled to respond to this increasignly socialistic and ludicrous development, we suggest you voice your anger at the following address:
Did you know that SIGTARP Probing Insider Trading? Really? Well that is better than the spineless SEC or FINRA have done. "The Financial Times appears to have broken the story that the Office of the Special Inspector General is investigating reports of insider trading in connection with the TARP. And what makes this probe potentially serious (aside from the brazenness of it) is that the suspects include executives as well as foot soldiers:" I don't believe it for one minute. Who would insinuate the banksters would do such a thing? I mean, like, really now.
The biggest tell all along to me has been the banks less than stellar effort to loan funds to consumers and small business. They know what is coming. They know where the real problems lie. They know the deal. In Fed: Banks Cease Tightening Standards, Loan Demand Weakens Further you find out now that even the consumer sees no need to borrow at this point. We're all sick of it and don't want any more. Like gorging at the all you can eat catfish buffet for 4 years, you kind of lose your taste for the stuff. Maybe, the public is catching on (that or they are tired of paying 30% on their CC balances).
The most interesting thing I read today (and was going to do a full post/rant on the subject) was Poll: Americans pretty clueless about politics, world I have been barking a lot over the past several months about how stupid the average American is and how we don't give a damn about anything other than our big screens and Cheetos. This post proves it. In a poll run by The Pew Research Center We learn just how ignorant we as a country are to some pretty basic topics. I encourage you to take the poll, cause it ain't all that hard. Most answers are either obvious or can be narrowed to 50/50 very easily. I'm telling you, we are a large part of the problem. We are lazy and just want to roll along and not have to worry about shit "we have enough problems as it is". LOL. We are so out of the loop clueless it is astounding. This translates (in a negative manner) to our need/desire for and active populace to promote positive CHANGE. I just hope we are not so far out of it that we can't rise up to regain this country from the terrorist hijackers that have control of it at this point.
Thanks for the read and have a great evening.
Let's get on with it.
The first order of business today is The Treasury Is Soliciting Your Feedback Regarding The Proposed Annuitization Of 401(k). Yes, step two is happening and rather quickly. I think they are pretty serious about this move. They want to tap your retirement savings to save the nation (whether you like it or not). The full letter is in the ZH post. Please use the email wisely and forward it to everyone one of your contacts. "For readers who feel compelled to respond to this increasignly socialistic and ludicrous development, we suggest you voice your anger at the following address:
- e-ORI@dol.gov. Include RIN 1210-AB33 in the subject line of the message
Did you know that SIGTARP Probing Insider Trading? Really? Well that is better than the spineless SEC or FINRA have done. "The Financial Times appears to have broken the story that the Office of the Special Inspector General is investigating reports of insider trading in connection with the TARP. And what makes this probe potentially serious (aside from the brazenness of it) is that the suspects include executives as well as foot soldiers:" I don't believe it for one minute. Who would insinuate the banksters would do such a thing? I mean, like, really now.
The biggest tell all along to me has been the banks less than stellar effort to loan funds to consumers and small business. They know what is coming. They know where the real problems lie. They know the deal. In Fed: Banks Cease Tightening Standards, Loan Demand Weakens Further you find out now that even the consumer sees no need to borrow at this point. We're all sick of it and don't want any more. Like gorging at the all you can eat catfish buffet for 4 years, you kind of lose your taste for the stuff. Maybe, the public is catching on (that or they are tired of paying 30% on their CC balances).
The most interesting thing I read today (and was going to do a full post/rant on the subject) was Poll: Americans pretty clueless about politics, world I have been barking a lot over the past several months about how stupid the average American is and how we don't give a damn about anything other than our big screens and Cheetos. This post proves it. In a poll run by The Pew Research Center We learn just how ignorant we as a country are to some pretty basic topics. I encourage you to take the poll, cause it ain't all that hard. Most answers are either obvious or can be narrowed to 50/50 very easily. I'm telling you, we are a large part of the problem. We are lazy and just want to roll along and not have to worry about shit "we have enough problems as it is". LOL. We are so out of the loop clueless it is astounding. This translates (in a negative manner) to our need/desire for and active populace to promote positive CHANGE. I just hope we are not so far out of it that we can't rise up to regain this country from the terrorist hijackers that have control of it at this point.
Thanks for the read and have a great evening.
Wednesday, January 27, 2010
Newsworthy Items From Today
I suppose the S&P climbed a little more than 5 points on the good news that the one month treasury yield turned negative, or was it that the new home sales declined sharply in December, or was it that the FOMC is not gonna raise rates cause things are not as rosy as expected, or was it cause Geitner an Paulson testified that neither knew shit about the AIG deal, or was it the release of the AIG schedule A, or the suspension of MM withdrawals, or O's speech tonight? I don't know what it was. I do know that the good news is that the markets will rally on any news is BACK! Wooo Hoooo! What a great day!
WTF?
"NO, you can not have YOUR money, sorry." Yup, that is what they are going to say in the next crash when you show up at the teller and want to make a withdrawal. No, I'm not kidding. Suspending Money Market Redemptions Is Now Legal; SEC Approves New Money Market Regulation In 4-1 Vote Welcome to Pottersville! I guess it is not such A Wonderful Life. so instead of giving you 97 cents on the dollar in a run on the banks, save your gas money. IMO, we all should have seen this one coming. IMO, this is a HUGE tell that they know some sort of systemic event is coming. What other reason would they have to in act this? Uh...just in case? This is really fucked up.
Freedom Watch Judge Napolitano with Gerald Celente - A freak show, socialism, fraud and war - OH MY!
WTF?
New Home Sales Decline Sharply in December was the first thing out of the shoot this morning. "The Census Bureau reports New Home Sales in December were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 342 thousand. This is a sharp decrease from the revised rate of 370 thousand in November (revised from 355 thousand)." Everyone knows that demand had been pulled forward thru "stimulus" packages designed to kick start the home buying spree that will bring us out of this melee. Wrong! Guess again Mr. Smarty Pants. You can force a horse to water, but if he does not have a job he can't pay for a friggin house (especially one he can't get a loan to pay with!) Add to this post DataQuick on California: Record Notices of Default filed in 2009.
"NO, you can not have YOUR money, sorry." Yup, that is what they are going to say in the next crash when you show up at the teller and want to make a withdrawal. No, I'm not kidding. Suspending Money Market Redemptions Is Now Legal; SEC Approves New Money Market Regulation In 4-1 Vote Welcome to Pottersville! I guess it is not such A Wonderful Life. so instead of giving you 97 cents on the dollar in a run on the banks, save your gas money. IMO, we all should have seen this one coming. IMO, this is a HUGE tell that they know some sort of systemic event is coming. What other reason would they have to in act this? Uh...just in case? This is really fucked up.
As only Denninger provides FOMC Statement 1/27 In English The important part is things are not getting better and they will leave rates right where they are for some time (the banks have not made enough money yet).
Oregon's Death Spiral; Business Owners Say "I'm moving out" This is just stupid, but may be a sign of things to come. Overtaxing the rich and hitting their bonuses hard. Face it. I believe it is coming for all of us. Do you care to explain how we will pay off the deficit (that we know of)? Wake up if you think there is any other way to get money for programs other than it coming out of our pockets. They may be biting the bullet early ahead of the curve. Yes, I agree that cutting waste is priority number one before raising taxes, but that will cost jobs immediately - whether directly or indirectly. Jobs cost revenues. Thus the rock and hard place issue arises. Soon you will see state privatization. We'll be paring off against each other. Just wait - you heard it here first.
Do you trust anything you hear out of China? I don't. Here is an enlightening look into what may be the truth on their economy and what's been going on over there. On China’s Overinvestment, LOL and you thought we had a bubble. Our building are sitting empty because our businesses have gone out of business. Their are empty because they built them, just to build them. Look out when they implode. They will be coming after their treasury holdings and that will then be the end of us.
Are there signs of things getting toppy in the market (other than the obvious)? Sure, try Margin Debt Increases By 30% In 2009, Currently At $231 Billion "The NYSE's most recent disclosure of margin debt indicates a surge in trading in margin accounts, where total debt shot up to $231 billion as of December, up $58 billion from February or 30%, and also an increase of 4.5% from November. This is an indication that "animal spirits" have surged by about the same amount as the broader market since the market lows: in other words, speculation is now rampant, and, to make things even better, is very much on margin, or leveraged. And we all know what happens when levered speculative bets turn out not quite as expected. For those who may be confused, Dow Jones provides a useful primer of how a margin call feedback loop tend to make things ugly, fast."
I will not listen to O tonight. Honestly, I can't stand to see his face or hear his voice. You know how you feel about someone that has lied to you constantly? Yeah, that feeling. LOL, and he is president? What a sad state of affairs we are in. I'll catch the highlights/low lights in the am on the news.
GL out there. I'm sure the PPT will be out in force in the am to celebrate our fearless leader's SOTU speech and the glorious recovery we are experiencing. God Bless America!
Freedom Watch Judge Napolitano with Gerald Celente - A freak show, socialism, fraud and war - OH MY!
Thursday, January 21, 2010
Good News?
After an exciting start to the day that had everyone hopping, the day would up quite uneventful from 11:00 to the close as SPX and other indexes sat on support and would not budge. For the bears the good news was the dip was not bought up with any fury (yet). for the bulls, there was no good news other than a strong support level. Does anyone recall that the unemployment report was this am? (LOL- what an afterthought that has become).
Other than GS's blow out, the big news to me was the O's speech basically attacking the banksters. As Denninger puts it - To President Obama: FOLLOW THROUGH NOW! The O has been a man of many unfulfilled promises and I'm quite surprised the market did not laugh off his (what should be idle) threat. I have no reason to trust the man. For once, I fully agree with the O. We saved their asses and they should be eternally grateful. It will be interesting to see1) how aggressively they push back and 2) who is actually running the show up there. Will they hold us hostage again? What leverage (financial blackmail) will they use to sway congress from even getting to a vote on this. This begs the question; was it all just rhetoric for the masses? If anything I will consider it a nice gesture and possibly the first brick laid in the foundation of an actual recovery. Naked cap also has“President Obama: It’s Not Just the Words!” Krugman is on this page as well. Washington's Blog - I'll Believe It When I See It (In the Fine Print) (this is getting rather humerous now - boy our president must have a ton of credibility!)
Another positive development is the delaying of Helicopter Ben;s confirmation. This is quite possibly the second brick in the foundation of recovery (of course a full audit of the Fed would be nice and abolishing the Fed would complete a whole wing of our ficticious recover hose we are attempting to build here). I think this is a must read from Zero Hedge. Scandal: Albert Edwards Alleges Central Banks Were Complicit In Robbing The Middle Classes As I am speculating the rhetoric and finger pointing for the blame is going to get very heated in this election year and the blame game hot potatoe will a fun one to keep track of.
With Brown winning Massachusetts, this has been the best news week since like 2007. I'll report the good stuff to. I'll actually shout it from the roof if and when it happens. That may be three bricks in the foundation! (we got a long way to go.)
Back to reality.....
We got a lot of problems. One that gets little focus is the pension issue. In Escalating Pension Crisis Will Bankrupt San Diego Mish brings to life an enormous issue. You see underfunded pension obligations was a big issue before the crash and is now even worse after the crash and CDS debacles. If you thought unemployment was bad, wait till you get a bunch of retirees that can't afford shit cause corporations and governments neglected their fiduciary duties to get the pension pot right (uh - they had TWO bubble scenarios to get this done). "The core issue is unsustainable pension benefits. The system is broke. Toying around with little cuts here and there will not help. And as bad as things look now, they will look even worse after another stock market plunge. Unions in general are attempting to hold the status quo as the day of reckoning rapidly approaches. The realization phase for unions will be brutal." Now there is another crime, the unions misleading their members that all is well. It ain't and how sad it is that the members don;t get it yet after two years of this crap.
Calculated Risk is one of the few blogs that actually took the time to mention the (un)employment report this am. Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Increase - Zero Hedge hit home the most important fact (as always) in Initial Claims Misses Estimate By 42K, Emergency Compensation Explodes By 652K Over Last Week "The combination of initial, continuing claims and EUC for the most recent period is a record 10,701,794 Seasonally Adjusted or a whopping 12,021,880 Non-Seasonally Adjusted. The double dip is here, and unfortunately for Obama, he is all out of stimulus bullets." The way the administration is attacking this problem you have to ask, does employment really matter?
The most shocking story I read was last night - Democrats To Seek Stunning $1.9 Trillion Increase In Debt Ceiling To $14.3 Trillion That would be the icing on the cake now wouldn't it!
And for you market timers Deutsche Bank On China: "First Rate Hike Coming In The Second Half Of March" I've been pointing to March for some time as the end of P2 (nope, I have somehow not called a top yet). I'm not a hopium addict. I just think they have another trick or two up their sleeves (remember they do control everything). All the signs are there and even price now. Maybe reality will slap me in the face and I will wake up. When China raises rates (I suspected they would first) we either must follow or get out of the way. When rates go up the market will implode.
In case you did not already know this - Ron Paul: After ‘CIA coup,’ agency ‘runs military’
Have a good one and GL!
"Based on the lower low, the futures and the daily indicators I have to vote for further weakness. 1118 to 1115 would be a good spot to look for." - who said dat this am? SPX low 1115.08.
Other than GS's blow out, the big news to me was the O's speech basically attacking the banksters. As Denninger puts it - To President Obama: FOLLOW THROUGH NOW! The O has been a man of many unfulfilled promises and I'm quite surprised the market did not laugh off his (what should be idle) threat. I have no reason to trust the man. For once, I fully agree with the O. We saved their asses and they should be eternally grateful. It will be interesting to see1) how aggressively they push back and 2) who is actually running the show up there. Will they hold us hostage again? What leverage (financial blackmail) will they use to sway congress from even getting to a vote on this. This begs the question; was it all just rhetoric for the masses? If anything I will consider it a nice gesture and possibly the first brick laid in the foundation of an actual recovery. Naked cap also has“President Obama: It’s Not Just the Words!” Krugman is on this page as well. Washington's Blog - I'll Believe It When I See It (In the Fine Print) (this is getting rather humerous now - boy our president must have a ton of credibility!)
Another positive development is the delaying of Helicopter Ben;s confirmation. This is quite possibly the second brick in the foundation of recovery (of course a full audit of the Fed would be nice and abolishing the Fed would complete a whole wing of our ficticious recover hose we are attempting to build here). I think this is a must read from Zero Hedge. Scandal: Albert Edwards Alleges Central Banks Were Complicit In Robbing The Middle Classes As I am speculating the rhetoric and finger pointing for the blame is going to get very heated in this election year and the blame game hot potatoe will a fun one to keep track of.
With Brown winning Massachusetts, this has been the best news week since like 2007. I'll report the good stuff to. I'll actually shout it from the roof if and when it happens. That may be three bricks in the foundation! (we got a long way to go.)
Back to reality.....
We got a lot of problems. One that gets little focus is the pension issue. In Escalating Pension Crisis Will Bankrupt San Diego Mish brings to life an enormous issue. You see underfunded pension obligations was a big issue before the crash and is now even worse after the crash and CDS debacles. If you thought unemployment was bad, wait till you get a bunch of retirees that can't afford shit cause corporations and governments neglected their fiduciary duties to get the pension pot right (uh - they had TWO bubble scenarios to get this done). "The core issue is unsustainable pension benefits. The system is broke. Toying around with little cuts here and there will not help. And as bad as things look now, they will look even worse after another stock market plunge. Unions in general are attempting to hold the status quo as the day of reckoning rapidly approaches. The realization phase for unions will be brutal." Now there is another crime, the unions misleading their members that all is well. It ain't and how sad it is that the members don;t get it yet after two years of this crap.
Calculated Risk is one of the few blogs that actually took the time to mention the (un)employment report this am. Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Increase - Zero Hedge hit home the most important fact (as always) in Initial Claims Misses Estimate By 42K, Emergency Compensation Explodes By 652K Over Last Week "The combination of initial, continuing claims and EUC for the most recent period is a record 10,701,794 Seasonally Adjusted or a whopping 12,021,880 Non-Seasonally Adjusted. The double dip is here, and unfortunately for Obama, he is all out of stimulus bullets." The way the administration is attacking this problem you have to ask, does employment really matter?
The most shocking story I read was last night - Democrats To Seek Stunning $1.9 Trillion Increase In Debt Ceiling To $14.3 Trillion That would be the icing on the cake now wouldn't it!
And for you market timers Deutsche Bank On China: "First Rate Hike Coming In The Second Half Of March" I've been pointing to March for some time as the end of P2 (nope, I have somehow not called a top yet). I'm not a hopium addict. I just think they have another trick or two up their sleeves (remember they do control everything). All the signs are there and even price now. Maybe reality will slap me in the face and I will wake up. When China raises rates (I suspected they would first) we either must follow or get out of the way. When rates go up the market will implode.
In case you did not already know this - Ron Paul: After ‘CIA coup,’ agency ‘runs military’
Have a good one and GL!
"Based on the lower low, the futures and the daily indicators I have to vote for further weakness. 1118 to 1115 would be a good spot to look for." - who said dat this am? SPX low 1115.08.
Tuesday, January 19, 2010
Whuz Up Out There?
U.S. stocks helped by health-care sector is the headline on Marketwatch. "The rally in health-care stocks came as voters headed to the ballot box in a surprisingly tight race to replace the late Edward Kennedy. Democrats would lose their filibuster-proof, 60-seat majority in the U.S. Senate if Republican candidate Scott Brown wins. That could pave the way for legislative compromises that could defer more to the private sector. Read more about the contentious race." I'm sure you all know all about that now, but it deserves to be rehashed as this is a HUGE event. The irony that the bill that Sen Kennedy wanted so bad would be destroyed from his seat. Something tells me the HC stocks will win either way as we really have not other options and this administration (nor any other) is going to do anything to curb the cost of medical care. There is simply too much money in the business and they'll keep our faithful representatives stoked with cash to ensure nothing changes. The peripherals surrounding this election are enormous and what gets slammed thru congress in the next week may have your head spinning (Bernanke re-appointment?).
Why do I believe there will be a big P3? Cause what we have sewn will come to roost and the ensuing cover-up has only made issues worse and is simply delaying the inevitable. Oh, The Truth Is The Banks Are Insolvent? (Still) from the Market Ticker states, "The bottom line? The banks are still insolvent, Treasury is still lying, the banks are still refusing to recognize losses that have already happened as a direct consequence of their intentional and outrageous conduct and all of this together will prevent any meaningful recovery the broader economy from taking hold." I can not agree more and thus the next Japan we will be. When QE is done, the jobless rate remains constant, the consumer savings rate spikes, the accounting fraud ends, taxes are raised across the board, how the heck are we gonna recover?
The Pragmatic Capitalist found a doozie that I liked.GURU OUTLOOK: FELIX ZULAUF & THE SECULAR BEAR MARKET it is always a pleasure when you find a "guru" that agrees with your opinion. “we are in the early stages of a deleveraging process, which is marked by a shift from maximizing profits to minimizing debt. It is a multiyear process. The U.S. consumer is in bad shape, and the U.K. consumer is even worse.” You go Felix!
FT has a good post on How the big banks rigged the market. "The next stage must be scrutiny of the structural distortions that allow these institutions to rack up such huge profits. Broadly speaking, the leading players in at least three areas of investment banking – wholesale markets, underwriting and mergers and acquisitions – have been operating natural oligopolies." Control, control, control OF EVERYTHING. Lehman was whacked and the smaller competition is being weeded out. I would not be surprised to see them busted up in the future (if and only if we get some sort of honest representation). Until then, I believe it has been proven beyond any doubt that they run the show.
The Big Picture brings us The Anti-Fed Fact Sheet please read this.
A number that flew under the radar as the markets soared today was NAHB: Builder Confidence Declines in January (aside from the C report this am - how many billions did they lose?).
Look out for the banksters earnings in the am. Should be an interesting day. Before the bell we'll have BAC, MS, WFC and STT just to mention a few. Earnings calendar here.
I have no clue what happened to the font. blogger acted up the whole post and was a pain to deal with. Sorry.
Tuesday, January 12, 2010
Up In Smoke?
Somehow I never saw this one coming. Hit me like a truck smack in the face.California Grows A Brain? from The Market Ticker is a breath of fresh air (well, laced with THC that is). Bravo Karl! "Specifically, hemp makes an excellent biofuel feedstock, it is suitable for very high-quality paper production at lower cost than made from trees and the fiber is useful for a whole host of industrial and consumer end product uses, yet it is virtually impossible, given the insane "public policy" view toward the plant, for any of this to be exploited." You see, Karl gets it. It IS a viable plant that can assist society. Thomas Jefferson devoted 40 acres to growing this industrious plant. I assume some lobby that wanted to corner the paper market and a few other industries and were behind the illegalization of this plant. I now also assume Monsanto will be a leading seed developer and will have a patent on every form of DNA to the plant making it illegal to grow without them getting a cut of the action in about 10 years.
Up in smoke will go this bubble as well. Housing Bubbles, Global Household Leverage, Why Fed's Reflation Efforts Will Fail Mish delivers "Not only did the Fed enable the credit bubble, it blew the policy response. All it takes to prove that is another stock market plunge and credit crunch. Both are coming, we just don't know when."
Calculated Risk has Option ARM Recast Update - Thought you may have put this one on the back burner so let's shine some light back on the subject. Uh, bad. Really bad. They can not raise rates or the housing market collapses. It is that simple. Uh, it may collapse anyway when the next round of arms rolls thru anyway, so WTF right?
If you do not know who William Black is, you should. thanks to naked Capitalism for digging this one up. William Black” “Anti-Regulators: The Federal Reserve’s War Against Effective Regulation” William has been around the block a time or two and I'd say any analysis he does on regulatory failure is far better than you will get anywhere else.
US Will Hit 94% Debt to GDP Ratio Next Year, Surpassing the Level Where Debt Starts Reducing Economic Growth so what's above 100%?
Do you remember the recent problems with Greece? Guess what - Greece condemned for falsifying data when it rains it pours and since Greece is a tiny little gnat on the global scale I expect them to the lion's share of the punishment (only to distract us from the troubles here at home). Pay attention to the right hand. That's it look over here. No, no, no; don't look at the left hand. Look at the right hand. Gooood.
Have a great evening.
Up in smoke will go this bubble as well. Housing Bubbles, Global Household Leverage, Why Fed's Reflation Efforts Will Fail Mish delivers "Not only did the Fed enable the credit bubble, it blew the policy response. All it takes to prove that is another stock market plunge and credit crunch. Both are coming, we just don't know when."
Calculated Risk has Option ARM Recast Update - Thought you may have put this one on the back burner so let's shine some light back on the subject. Uh, bad. Really bad. They can not raise rates or the housing market collapses. It is that simple. Uh, it may collapse anyway when the next round of arms rolls thru anyway, so WTF right?
If you do not know who William Black is, you should. thanks to naked Capitalism for digging this one up. William Black” “Anti-Regulators: The Federal Reserve’s War Against Effective Regulation” William has been around the block a time or two and I'd say any analysis he does on regulatory failure is far better than you will get anywhere else.
US Will Hit 94% Debt to GDP Ratio Next Year, Surpassing the Level Where Debt Starts Reducing Economic Growth so what's above 100%?
Economist: Bubble Warning The Big Picture dug this one up. I point it out because 7 out of 10 sights I have visited so far have something related to a "top" article on them. Either everyone is starting to figure this game out or a lot of people are wrong. Can't make that call till after the fact. Earnings season is upon us and the numbers will tell the story. Will the beat the number, but miss on revenue story again be enough to satisfy the market? Well, that is a mute point, cause GS is the market and they will direct it wherever they want it to go with your money via the Fed.
Do you remember the recent problems with Greece? Guess what - Greece condemned for falsifying data when it rains it pours and since Greece is a tiny little gnat on the global scale I expect them to the lion's share of the punishment (only to distract us from the troubles here at home). Pay attention to the right hand. That's it look over here. No, no, no; don't look at the left hand. Look at the right hand. Gooood.
There you have it. Another wonderful day in the neighborhood. Can anyone point out what is missing from this post? No, not a rant or 4 letter words. Should be obvious.
Have a great evening.
Monday, September 14, 2009
Mind Boggling News Events Continue To Boggle The Mind
Let's start with the HufPo's Priceless: How The Federal Reserve Bought The Economics Profession. This one will blow your mind and is a must read. "Even the late Milton Friedman, whose monetary economic theories heavily influenced Greenspan, was concerned about the stifled nature of the debate. Friedman, in a 1993 letter to Auerbach that the author quotes in his book, argued that the Fed practice was harming objectivity: "I cannot disagree with you that having something like 500 economists is extremely unhealthy. As you say, it is not conducive to independent, objective research. You and I know there has been censorship of the material published. Equally important, the location of the economists in the Federal Reserve has had a significant influence on the kind of research they do, biasing that research toward noncontroversial technical papers on method as opposed to substantive papers on policy and results," Friedman wrote." ROF LMAO - they own 'em ALL. No one on the payroll or with any thought of advancing in the field will ever speak against them. the funniest part, how the 220 PHD's on staff all missed this one coming. Simply mind boggling.
The FT brings us, Court rejects SEC settlement with BofA Judge Rakoff holds serve and sends 'em to court in February of 2010. "In Monday’s order, Mr Rakoff wrote that the settlement “does not comport with the most elementary notions of justice and morality, in that it proposes that the shareholders who were the victims of the bank’s alleged misconduct now pay the penalty for that misconduct”." What is mind boggling about this one is that justice may actually be served and may be gaining momentum.
Calculated risk has Failed Banks and the Deposit Insurance Fund. this is a real gem that hits home to me. "The cumulative estimated losses for the DIF, since early 2007, are now over $42.5 billion.Regulators closed three more banks on Friday, and that brings the total FDIC insured bank failures to 92 in 2009. At the recent pace, regulators will probably close around 150 banks this year - the most since 1992." That is a mind boggling $42.5 billion they are now in the hole and possibly hundreds or thousands of more banks to fail? Heloooo?
And from Pragcap.com - DAVID TICE: THE S&P IS GOING BELOW 400 You know I could not resist this one. "David Tice is undeterred by the 50% rally in stocks. In his latest interview he says the market will fall over 60%." There is a link to the full interview there. Nice to hear one realist out there with a mind boggling prediction the pundits at CNBS can not fatham.
And last but not least our friends at Zero Hedge dug this up at Bloomberg: China Probes ‘Unfair Trade’ in U.S. Chicken and Auto Products. Mind boggling to think that China is complaining about fair trade practices. "Chinese industries complain that they’re being hurt by “unfair trade practices,” the nation’s Ministry of Commerce said on its Web site yesterday. The dumping investigation relates to poultry alone, a spokesman said in Beijing today. The ministry didn’t specify the value of imports of the products."
GL trading.
The FT brings us, Court rejects SEC settlement with BofA Judge Rakoff holds serve and sends 'em to court in February of 2010. "In Monday’s order, Mr Rakoff wrote that the settlement “does not comport with the most elementary notions of justice and morality, in that it proposes that the shareholders who were the victims of the bank’s alleged misconduct now pay the penalty for that misconduct”." What is mind boggling about this one is that justice may actually be served and may be gaining momentum.
Calculated risk has Failed Banks and the Deposit Insurance Fund. this is a real gem that hits home to me. "The cumulative estimated losses for the DIF, since early 2007, are now over $42.5 billion.Regulators closed three more banks on Friday, and that brings the total FDIC insured bank failures to 92 in 2009. At the recent pace, regulators will probably close around 150 banks this year - the most since 1992." That is a mind boggling $42.5 billion they are now in the hole and possibly hundreds or thousands of more banks to fail? Heloooo?
And from Pragcap.com - DAVID TICE: THE S&P IS GOING BELOW 400 You know I could not resist this one. "David Tice is undeterred by the 50% rally in stocks. In his latest interview he says the market will fall over 60%." There is a link to the full interview there. Nice to hear one realist out there with a mind boggling prediction the pundits at CNBS can not fatham.
And last but not least our friends at Zero Hedge dug this up at Bloomberg: China Probes ‘Unfair Trade’ in U.S. Chicken and Auto Products. Mind boggling to think that China is complaining about fair trade practices. "Chinese industries complain that they’re being hurt by “unfair trade practices,” the nation’s Ministry of Commerce said on its Web site yesterday. The dumping investigation relates to poultry alone, a spokesman said in Beijing today. The ministry didn’t specify the value of imports of the products."
GL trading.
Wednesday, September 9, 2009
As The Green Shoots Turn (Brown)
Let's get right to it shall we.
From Calculated Risk we get Treasury: Millions More Foreclosures Coming. Where Assistant Secretary for Financial Institutions Michael S. Barr testified, "Therefore, even if HAMP is a total success, we should still expect millions of foreclosures, as President Obama noted when he launched the program in February." OK, we need some extra housing inventory. I'm sure the home builders spiked on this news.
From The Underground Investor - The Coming Blowback of Banking Fraud. In this doozy of an article you'll get glorious tid bits like, "As of September 4, 2009, shadowstats.com reported that unemployment in the US is now near 21% and is showing no signs of improving any time soon (when factoring in discouraged workers, part-time workers that can’t find full-time work, unemployed workers that have fallen off the unemployment roll, etc.) In fact, yesterday, Manpower’s Employment Outlook Survey reported that US employers’ hiring plans for the upcoming fourth quarter dropped to the lowest level in the history of its survey which dates back to 1962." So much for that highly touted 9.7% number you get from CNBS.
In a follow up to Mish's glorified employment post from yesterday, The Big Picture puts it in a nut shell for ya in Temp Hiring: No Imminent Jobs Recovery with two nice charts.
From Bloomberg - Record Plunge in U.S. Consumer Credit Signals Weakened Spending. "Sept. 9 (Bloomberg) -- A record $21.6 billion drop in borrowing by Americans added to evidence that consumer spending will be slow to recover as banks and credit-card companies tighten lending standards and households pay down debt."
And the most important story I may bring you today is from MSN Money - Why every cold beer costs you more. "While consumers shelled out more for their blue-collar Budweisers in the first half of this year, compensation for Bud execs advanced 92%. The top 13 executives made $73 million in the first half of 2009, or $5.6 million each, on average -- up from $38 million a year before." That is just wrong. What is with these executives and bonuses. Are they just trying to really piss off every person at every economic level?
The top callers all got shot down today. Not me! T minus 33 days to my top date. Some may begin to cry for a double top. That may work, but we'll have to see.
GL trading!
From Calculated Risk we get Treasury: Millions More Foreclosures Coming. Where Assistant Secretary for Financial Institutions Michael S. Barr testified, "Therefore, even if HAMP is a total success, we should still expect millions of foreclosures, as President Obama noted when he launched the program in February." OK, we need some extra housing inventory. I'm sure the home builders spiked on this news.
From The Underground Investor - The Coming Blowback of Banking Fraud. In this doozy of an article you'll get glorious tid bits like, "As of September 4, 2009, shadowstats.com reported that unemployment in the US is now near 21% and is showing no signs of improving any time soon (when factoring in discouraged workers, part-time workers that can’t find full-time work, unemployed workers that have fallen off the unemployment roll, etc.) In fact, yesterday, Manpower’s Employment Outlook Survey reported that US employers’ hiring plans for the upcoming fourth quarter dropped to the lowest level in the history of its survey which dates back to 1962." So much for that highly touted 9.7% number you get from CNBS.
In a follow up to Mish's glorified employment post from yesterday, The Big Picture puts it in a nut shell for ya in Temp Hiring: No Imminent Jobs Recovery with two nice charts.
From Bloomberg - Record Plunge in U.S. Consumer Credit Signals Weakened Spending. "Sept. 9 (Bloomberg) -- A record $21.6 billion drop in borrowing by Americans added to evidence that consumer spending will be slow to recover as banks and credit-card companies tighten lending standards and households pay down debt."
And the most important story I may bring you today is from MSN Money - Why every cold beer costs you more. "While consumers shelled out more for their blue-collar Budweisers in the first half of this year, compensation for Bud execs advanced 92%. The top 13 executives made $73 million in the first half of 2009, or $5.6 million each, on average -- up from $38 million a year before." That is just wrong. What is with these executives and bonuses. Are they just trying to really piss off every person at every economic level?
The top callers all got shot down today. Not me! T minus 33 days to my top date. Some may begin to cry for a double top. That may work, but we'll have to see.
GL trading!
Tuesday, August 25, 2009
Cry Baby Timmay And Some Other Items
No time tonight for a lot of extras. I clipped some of the best stuff I could find from the usual suspects today. I'd read it from bottom up (it is better that way). I am leaving the Ben rehired off the list, cause it was expected. They would not do anything to disturb the markets now. I do expect him to be fired before O's first and only term is up.
Mish - Talks about the wizardry of the grand illusionists and how they have all (well, most) of us fooled in Buying into the Rally, Hook, Line, and Sinker, "Whatever those earnings expectations are, disappointments are likely. Either earnings will miss targets, or the stock market will sink anyway because the earnings and then some have long been priced in. However, that is tomorrow's business. Today's business is about buying into the rally hook line and sinker, just as the charlatan wizards have hoped."
Prag Cap - Has an unusual Grantham bear quote? This is strange and almost makes me want to be bullish. JEREMY GRANTHAM SAYS STOCKS ARE OVERVALUED BY 15%. I guess he has to say this once every 10 years. "Mr. Grantham sees “seven lean years” of a sluggish market ahead, to atone for what the firm believes was a long era of overpriced stocks, according to his newsletter."
Naked Cap - A little diddy on the BDI in Baltic Dry Index Down 45% From High in June "Chinese imports have been a driving factor in commodities demand, which drives the BDI. The price of imported iron ire has dropped below $100 a ton and may fall further."
The Big Picture - A good chart of the BDI since we are on the subject Daily Baltic Dry Index Volatility.
Clac Risk - This is a good one. With the "positive Schiller numbers out today, this brings you back to reality nicely. Misc: A possible 1991 House Price Headline, and Falling Rents in NYC. "Imagine a headline in June 1991 (if Case-Shiller was around): "House Prices increase at 11.6% annualized rate in June!" The horrible price declines were over ... right? Nope. Real house prices declined for almost another 5 years. Just something to remember."
The Market Ticker - I'll let Denninger handle the rosy Consumer Confidence numbers. August Confidence and Richmond Fed "If we had learned ANYTHING from the 2001-2006 debt bubble it should have been that such "programs" make the inevitable collapse WORSE."
And last but not least, from Zero Hedge - Cry baby Timmay interview where he goes into Geithner: "Fed Audit Would Be Problematic For The Country". I think a little justice wouldn't hurt, don't you? (well, it may hurt someone, but it won't be us)
GL Trading
Mish - Talks about the wizardry of the grand illusionists and how they have all (well, most) of us fooled in Buying into the Rally, Hook, Line, and Sinker, "Whatever those earnings expectations are, disappointments are likely. Either earnings will miss targets, or the stock market will sink anyway because the earnings and then some have long been priced in. However, that is tomorrow's business. Today's business is about buying into the rally hook line and sinker, just as the charlatan wizards have hoped."
Prag Cap - Has an unusual Grantham bear quote? This is strange and almost makes me want to be bullish. JEREMY GRANTHAM SAYS STOCKS ARE OVERVALUED BY 15%. I guess he has to say this once every 10 years. "Mr. Grantham sees “seven lean years” of a sluggish market ahead, to atone for what the firm believes was a long era of overpriced stocks, according to his newsletter."
Naked Cap - A little diddy on the BDI in Baltic Dry Index Down 45% From High in June "Chinese imports have been a driving factor in commodities demand, which drives the BDI. The price of imported iron ire has dropped below $100 a ton and may fall further."
The Big Picture - A good chart of the BDI since we are on the subject Daily Baltic Dry Index Volatility.
Clac Risk - This is a good one. With the "positive Schiller numbers out today, this brings you back to reality nicely. Misc: A possible 1991 House Price Headline, and Falling Rents in NYC. "Imagine a headline in June 1991 (if Case-Shiller was around): "House Prices increase at 11.6% annualized rate in June!" The horrible price declines were over ... right? Nope. Real house prices declined for almost another 5 years. Just something to remember."
The Market Ticker - I'll let Denninger handle the rosy Consumer Confidence numbers. August Confidence and Richmond Fed "If we had learned ANYTHING from the 2001-2006 debt bubble it should have been that such "programs" make the inevitable collapse WORSE."
And last but not least, from Zero Hedge - Cry baby Timmay interview where he goes into Geithner: "Fed Audit Would Be Problematic For The Country". I think a little justice wouldn't hurt, don't you? (well, it may hurt someone, but it won't be us)
GL Trading
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