Isn't the market amazing? TD at Zero Hedge put it best, "So let's get this straight: we are hearing Iran is working on a nuclear warhead, an alleged rogue Mossad force in Dubai killing Hamas operatives, Greece about to file, Britain getting punished by a term that was in vogue when people still listening to a Flock of Seagulls, tax refunds getting halted, and now a possible redux of the Falklands war, and what do we have? A market that is up nearly 1% on vapor as a major "technical level was breached." The backstop - assorted central banks will be forced to rotate the "print" dial to Turbo Max. All we can say is LOL." Just another day in paradise!
SURPRISE! after the bell - Fed Begins Tightening Process: Discount Rate Raised To 0.75% From 0.5%, Futures Plunge, Dollar Surges. Nice of them to have verbiage like "the unforeseeable future" in their outlooks. I guess that means a week or two.
Mish paints a not so pretty picture in Unsustainable Spending Trends in Graphical Form; Monthly Treasury Statement February 2010. Remember the other day when I was encouraging you to do the math and how none of this can work? Well if you are mathmatically deficient, this will help.
We need to take a closer look into what may happen in Chinasooner than later and naked capitalism has a good read in Thinking the Unthinkable: What if China Devalues the Renminbi? The best quote, "It could get very ugly."
I believe Matt Taibbi is doing the best job at historically documenting what I believe is the truth behind most of this financial nonsense. While the history books will no doubt claim Greenspan and Bernanke as the next version of founding fathers. We all know better. Must read - Taibbi: "Goldman Raped The Taxpayer, And Raped Their Clients"
You knew I would get to the plane crash sooner or later. Here is ZH's posting of the suicide note, the uber conspiracy laced infowars post and Denninger gives you a more lively take in This Is How It Begins (Wanton Violence). My thoughts....Dude had enough and took action into his own hands. The comments around the web label him from crackpot to patriot. I'm leaning more to patriot. I do my part in writing congress, supporting End the Fed and various other items I slam down your throats every night. While not on this extreme, I would love to see us all do more to wakre up the nation to the financial raping we are all experiencing at the hands of the Fed, Congress and Wall Street. I am deeply sorry for those in the collateral damage field and wish them all speedy recovery (I do not know if there were any fatalities). Sadly the solution may take more larger profile actions like this to wake up our leaders and let them know we have had enough. While I do not promote or condone violence or any actions that may hurt another, I can't help but think that another Kent State is coming down the road and their ability to control the masses this time will be feeble in comparison to the anger they are instilling in us. This financial massacre has to stop and they are doing nothing, I mean NOTHING, to stop it and we may just have to take actions into our own hands one day if it is not already to late.
Can't wait to see the markets in the am after that rate increase. It is well known they are between a rock and a hard place. the have to raise rates but can't. I'm willing to speculate on more raise and then they revert to zero in the future as they attempt to keep the banks solvent and the economy humming (LOL) while attempting to reduce liquidity.
GL out there. It should be about to get really ugly.
Showing posts with label Denninger. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Denninger. Show all posts
Thursday, February 18, 2010
Thursday, January 28, 2010
More Of The Same?
TD at Zero hedge put it best, "Ben Shalom Bernanke reconfirmation now guaranteed. Sorry America - your senate has failed you. Enjoy the asset bubble and the coronation of the opaque US balance sheet as the biggest receptacle of toxic assets while you can - the next implosion will be the last." It will be the last. there can not be an exit strategy to get out from under the mountain of toxic assets they have accumulated. What is the best part? There is so much more toxic crap out there we either know or do not know about it really did not matter if they anointed Howdy Doody to run the Fed. End game is what it is. How did he get all of these votes you ask when apparently the public wants no part of him running the show anymore? Hypocrite Bernanke and his Political Pandering; Bernanke Buys Votes
The most disturbing news of the day is It's Official: Democrats Succeed In Pushing New Debt Ceiling To $14.3 Trillion Who wants to be a party pooper? We have bubbles to reflate! I guess this is where the new job stimulus is gonna come from? What, are they gonna subsidize employment? Will it be used to continue the short squeeze ramp job? Lord knows the PPT just got a huge shot in the arm. Bottom line is this is just another 1.9T (with a T) that WE have to pay back. The Debt to GDP ratio measures the financial leverage of and economy. Below 60% is good. So, if we are levered above 100%? This was the last straw.Chart from zFacts.com Learn more about Debt/GDP here.
Denninger finally got on the MM issue with Money Market Funds: No Longer Safe I repeat this topic cause I want it drilled into your head. "Investors no longer can reasonably rely on daily liquidity for these funds as a consequence of this change. While under normal conditions daily liquidity remains available it is precisely under abnormal conditions that an investor is likely to most need access to this money instantly, for example to meet a margin call or for other emergency funding requirements." They have taken away your right to get your money. Get it?
In case you forgot we had "elevated" jobless claims again this morning. What gets ignored (unless ZH pushes Liesman to cover it as best he can) is any analysis inside the numbers (don't look behind the curtain). Mish is always around to help (he does some great stuff on Thursdays). 4 Week Moving Average of Initial Unemployment Claims Rises 3rd Straight Week "From the report, there are 5,350,477 workers on emergency benefits, and another 4,669,250 workers on regular benefits. Thus 10 million people are out of a job who want to work, and that does not count the number of people who have exhausted regular and emergency benefits. Recovery? Where?"
"I am not suggesting that anyone purposely altered the numbers — but when the goal is no longer objective reporting of info, these things happen. And when you can’t trust the front page of a paper to do basic math, you can’t trust ANYTHING in it." said Ritholtz at The Big Picture. Who can you trust these days?
Let's see how long it takes them to get that 1.9T back into the markets. I'll put the over under on a week (give or take 6 days) and remember, I have not called a top yet. Here's to astimulus subsidized job coming to your place of business soon (whether they are needed or not).
Take care.
The most disturbing news of the day is It's Official: Democrats Succeed In Pushing New Debt Ceiling To $14.3 Trillion Who wants to be a party pooper? We have bubbles to reflate! I guess this is where the new job stimulus is gonna come from? What, are they gonna subsidize employment? Will it be used to continue the short squeeze ramp job? Lord knows the PPT just got a huge shot in the arm. Bottom line is this is just another 1.9T (with a T) that WE have to pay back. The Debt to GDP ratio measures the financial leverage of and economy. Below 60% is good. So, if we are levered above 100%? This was the last straw.Chart from zFacts.com Learn more about Debt/GDP here.
In case you forgot we had "elevated" jobless claims again this morning. What gets ignored (unless ZH pushes Liesman to cover it as best he can) is any analysis inside the numbers (don't look behind the curtain). Mish is always around to help (he does some great stuff on Thursdays). 4 Week Moving Average of Initial Unemployment Claims Rises 3rd Straight Week "From the report, there are 5,350,477 workers on emergency benefits, and another 4,669,250 workers on regular benefits. Thus 10 million people are out of a job who want to work, and that does not count the number of people who have exhausted regular and emergency benefits. Recovery? Where?"
"I am not suggesting that anyone purposely altered the numbers — but when the goal is no longer objective reporting of info, these things happen. And when you can’t trust the front page of a paper to do basic math, you can’t trust ANYTHING in it." said Ritholtz at The Big Picture. Who can you trust these days?
Let's see how long it takes them to get that 1.9T back into the markets. I'll put the over under on a week (give or take 6 days) and remember, I have not called a top yet. Here's to a
Take care.
Monday, January 25, 2010
Morning Post
Financial Terrorism? That is what Denninger is calling it and I agree with his assessment 100%. In Financial Terrorism? You Decide some great questions are asked."Is not a threat to destroy financial markets along with acting intentionally and directly opposite what you claim needs to happen an act of financial terrorism?" is one of them. Please read this if you have not. Zero Hedge covers it here - Chasing Red Liquidity Herrings.
The reason I open with this is because it supports my theory that the markets are manipulated and that the Creature From Jekyll Island is running the show (with a little help from their evil twin GS). How can I continue to call for higher highs in the face of all of this mess? It is simple, the GAME IS RIGGED. They are playing Russian Financial Roulette with our financial future. These meat heads play the game backwards though. They start with a fully loaded clip work backwards. It is only a matter of time before they actually pull the trigger. The Brown election actually took a round out of the clip, so at least there is one empty chamber.
Don't forget we are still in earnings season. Lots of companies report this week. Earnings calendar HERE. The Barron's Economic Announcement Calendar is HERE.
On to the charts. Impressive move south last week that you had to be on Mars to have missed. Looking at the daily SPX, some of the indicators here have not reached oversold status yet. The futures indicate they won't get there either (E-mini up 7 at this time). This run has blown out the lower Bollinger Band, crushed the 50 ma and closed two gaps. that is a lot in such short a time. It has also completed a 50% retracement of the last run up off of the 1031 low. I would like to point out that while sellers greatly outnumbered buyers last week, the volume was not all that impressive.
SPX 60m - This chart on the other hand is dramatically oversold and to me does the best job of showing how the recent trends in price swings was crushed. 1087 to 1090 is a strong support area. At this time I'm not sure what wave structure is. Is this a 2 or a 4 is the big question. I think it is a 4. Given the length of 1 I do not expect much more weakness for some time to come. Think about it. 4 up, a short 5 down, then you have to trace out an ABC corrective, so it may get dull again for a week. The Bernanke confirmation vote may keep a bunch on the sidelines. Let's look for a retrace to the 1111 to 1115 range then we'll go from there. I have not called a top yet. At this time I expect the 1131 range for the to of 2 if we are in P3.
Gold- looks oversold on the indicators and may be consolidating at this support level. This could be a C up here.
Dollar - Set a new NT high last week. This may be a 2 of a 3. I will be long again large for the 3 of 3.
Oil - Oversold and near a lower support/channel line. I'd look for a pop back to 77/80.
Natgas - Still traveling up the support line. Indicators have divergences to price which is not good. Good support at 5.32.
GL out there and take care.
The reason I open with this is because it supports my theory that the markets are manipulated and that the Creature From Jekyll Island is running the show (with a little help from their evil twin GS). How can I continue to call for higher highs in the face of all of this mess? It is simple, the GAME IS RIGGED. They are playing Russian Financial Roulette with our financial future. These meat heads play the game backwards though. They start with a fully loaded clip work backwards. It is only a matter of time before they actually pull the trigger. The Brown election actually took a round out of the clip, so at least there is one empty chamber.
Don't forget we are still in earnings season. Lots of companies report this week. Earnings calendar HERE. The Barron's Economic Announcement Calendar is HERE.
On to the charts. Impressive move south last week that you had to be on Mars to have missed. Looking at the daily SPX, some of the indicators here have not reached oversold status yet. The futures indicate they won't get there either (E-mini up 7 at this time). This run has blown out the lower Bollinger Band, crushed the 50 ma and closed two gaps. that is a lot in such short a time. It has also completed a 50% retracement of the last run up off of the 1031 low. I would like to point out that while sellers greatly outnumbered buyers last week, the volume was not all that impressive.
Gold- looks oversold on the indicators and may be consolidating at this support level. This could be a C up here.
Dollar - Set a new NT high last week. This may be a 2 of a 3. I will be long again large for the 3 of 3.
Oil - Oversold and near a lower support/channel line. I'd look for a pop back to 77/80.
Natgas - Still traveling up the support line. Indicators have divergences to price which is not good. Good support at 5.32.
GL out there and take care.
Monday, January 11, 2010
What A Bunch Of Crap
Let's start with Trim Tabs CEO Charles Biderman courtesy of the ZH post More Observations On The Federal Reserve Buying Stocks. You all know I love to harp on manipulation, well, the numbers are starting to add up and they will continue to shine a brighter light on the fraud as time goes on. Unfortunately at the end, when it is to late and your future has been promised/sold to the banksters, we will all be indentured servants to the system. I'm not joking. Please watch.
So let's back that up with VIX-VXV Spread At 3 Year Lows from ZH. Can you put 2 and 2 together? This is really simple math and the thesis does not take more than a second grade mentality to deduct. Why should there be any fear if the government is backstopping everything taking your funds (borrowed/leveraged) and using then to support the market at all costs?
And to pick a third post from ZH (just putting the pieces together) Insider Selling/Buying Ratio At 62.3x To Start Off 2010; Insiders Can't Thank The Fed Enough For Inflated Stock Prices -
Mish has Investor Complacency Running High, Stock Valuations Extreme - Which is Rosie's report from Friday if you have not seen it (thrying to drive my point home here).
And from Denninger - If Consumer Spending Is Improving, Where Is It? - again it takes demand to drive everything and if the consumer is dead then.....then......
Its a big no brainer. As I have said all along, it is manipulated and it will remain that way till something happens out of their control. It is a fucking Ponzi scheme that is being run at your expense. So why are we all not in the streets raising hell? Who knows, but we will be one day soon looking for blood. Sadly the corporate and governmental elite will weather the storm and some patsy that you have never heard of will get grilled. Geitner may get in trouble, but remember those pardons that the O gets? Timmuh will be at the top of the list (now as for the rest, I can't wait to see the radical trash that he sets free back to the streets).
I keep putting posts like this together nightly. News is news, good or bad, the market reacts positively. The news is forming a tsunami IMO that is building off shore and will crest later this year. You may wonder, how it can get worse? Trust me it can and will during the election year as the finger pointing gets going good and accusations are rampant of who caused this mess. The team will no longer function as a unit and the lack of chemistry will destroy the hopium driven karma that has ruled DC and Wall St. The house of cards is going to crumble and then we will have our say. I'm not sure what it is going to take to get the public mad enough to get off their la-z-boys, but it will happen.
Want to see the coolest chart you have ever seen that is a real eye opener? Gone in 24 Seconds: An ETCH Visualization - the flow of treasuries - it is wicked and tells a (not so) great story.
It is coming, be prepared.
GL
So let's back that up with VIX-VXV Spread At 3 Year Lows from ZH. Can you put 2 and 2 together? This is really simple math and the thesis does not take more than a second grade mentality to deduct. Why should there be any fear if the government is backstopping everything taking your funds (borrowed/leveraged) and using then to support the market at all costs?
And to pick a third post from ZH (just putting the pieces together) Insider Selling/Buying Ratio At 62.3x To Start Off 2010; Insiders Can't Thank The Fed Enough For Inflated Stock Prices -
Mish has Investor Complacency Running High, Stock Valuations Extreme - Which is Rosie's report from Friday if you have not seen it (thrying to drive my point home here).
And from Denninger - If Consumer Spending Is Improving, Where Is It? - again it takes demand to drive everything and if the consumer is dead then.....then......
Its a big no brainer. As I have said all along, it is manipulated and it will remain that way till something happens out of their control. It is a fucking Ponzi scheme that is being run at your expense. So why are we all not in the streets raising hell? Who knows, but we will be one day soon looking for blood. Sadly the corporate and governmental elite will weather the storm and some patsy that you have never heard of will get grilled. Geitner may get in trouble, but remember those pardons that the O gets? Timmuh will be at the top of the list (now as for the rest, I can't wait to see the radical trash that he sets free back to the streets).
I keep putting posts like this together nightly. News is news, good or bad, the market reacts positively. The news is forming a tsunami IMO that is building off shore and will crest later this year. You may wonder, how it can get worse? Trust me it can and will during the election year as the finger pointing gets going good and accusations are rampant of who caused this mess. The team will no longer function as a unit and the lack of chemistry will destroy the hopium driven karma that has ruled DC and Wall St. The house of cards is going to crumble and then we will have our say. I'm not sure what it is going to take to get the public mad enough to get off their la-z-boys, but it will happen.
Want to see the coolest chart you have ever seen that is a real eye opener? Gone in 24 Seconds: An ETCH Visualization - the flow of treasuries - it is wicked and tells a (not so) great story.
It is coming, be prepared.
GL
Thursday, October 1, 2009
Wow, I'm Actually Making Money Now!
Good thing as I dropped off the property tax bill today. So what do we have newsworthy tonight that can add some fuel to this fire? Hmmm, should not be hard to find if you ask me. I think you'll get a good laugh somewhere in this post.
TD and Zero hedge will lead us off with Nic Lenoir's Is This The Beginning Of The End Of The Ponzi Scheme? How bout this little factoid that will bring a smile to the premabears faces, "I saved the best for last: the LQD ETF which is basically a proxy for investment grade bonds which has been on a straight ramp up since October 08 seems to have broken its trend. Tha comes on the back of some observations over the last few weeks of some divergence between the CDS market which has made attempts to move wider while equities kept grinding up. This is by far the most important development. If the price action in the next 2/3 days confirms this break, then really it means the carry trade as a whole is starting to break down." As Cartman would say, sveeeeet!
Karl Denninger does the best job at ripping the preshredded fodder left over from the capitol hill grindings. Today he rips on Helicopter Ben in To Bernanke: It's Time To Stop Lying. "Or shall we talk about the "off-balance sheet" games, such as Wachovia's practice of writing CDS against their own tranches of OptionARMs as inducement to get people to buy them - a toxic brew that has now landed on Wells Fargo and remains undisclosed as to the exposure it presents to Wells from possible (or even probable) defaults! Wells has some $2 trillion of this off-balance sheet exposure and they're hardly alone in the (ab)use of these "QSPEs" - indeed, those are the same sort of vehicles that a really great energy-related company called ENRON was (ab)using to hide mounting losses that ultimately blew them sky-high." Note to Karl, stay away from the 5hr Energy man. You will blow. I can feel the angst being transmitted from your keyboard into mine and I don't need any more angst in my life right now.
OK, I'm not sure if this headline is a joke or not, Greenspan Calls Market Top Buahahahahaha, ROF, puke out nose, shart in pants! Thank you Naked Capitalism for my best laugh of the day. You mean the man with the troop of 1,000 economists (some salaried and some contracted) that all monitor this shit daily and missed the top in the first place, and YOU, yes you all by your little self, pull this out of your ass? You got to be freaking kiddin me? Uh, Mr. Greenspan, and your credibility to call this top would be? Yes? It would be?
Mish brings a rosy report from Rosenberg in Rosenberg: “We are certainly in a deflationary state”. "“We are certainly in a deflationary state,” said David Rosenberg, chief economist and strategist with Gluskin Sheff and Associates in Toronto. “Of that, there's no doubt. I think people still have no clue as to just how weak the economy is,” Mr. Rosenberg said." Uh, ok, now that is not what I heard on CNBS or from the leading ML analyst that took your old job. David, have you not had your government mandated green shoot tea today? Please report to the infirmary at once.
The Pragmatic Capitalist comes thru with it's daily must read in MUST READ: THE REAL REASON BEHIND THE FED SECRECY Sveeeet! You all know I love this shit.
“I believe that banking institutions are more dangerous to our liberties than standing armies. If the American people ever allow private banks to control the issue of their currency, first by inflation, then by deflation, the banks and corporations that will grow up around [the banks] will deprive the people of all property until their children wake-up homeless on the continent their fathers conquered. The issuing power should be taken from the banks and restored to the people, to whom it properly belongs.”
- Thomas Jefferson
(Note: support audit the Fed HERE.)
Bhuahahahaha, ROF, puke out nose, shart in pants again! Oooh, better go clean that up.
Have a great night. Bhuahahahaha. He called a top. OMG, that's funny as shit.
TD and Zero hedge will lead us off with Nic Lenoir's Is This The Beginning Of The End Of The Ponzi Scheme? How bout this little factoid that will bring a smile to the premabears faces, "I saved the best for last: the LQD ETF which is basically a proxy for investment grade bonds which has been on a straight ramp up since October 08 seems to have broken its trend. Tha comes on the back of some observations over the last few weeks of some divergence between the CDS market which has made attempts to move wider while equities kept grinding up. This is by far the most important development. If the price action in the next 2/3 days confirms this break, then really it means the carry trade as a whole is starting to break down." As Cartman would say, sveeeeet!
Karl Denninger does the best job at ripping the preshredded fodder left over from the capitol hill grindings. Today he rips on Helicopter Ben in To Bernanke: It's Time To Stop Lying. "Or shall we talk about the "off-balance sheet" games, such as Wachovia's practice of writing CDS against their own tranches of OptionARMs as inducement to get people to buy them - a toxic brew that has now landed on Wells Fargo and remains undisclosed as to the exposure it presents to Wells from possible (or even probable) defaults! Wells has some $2 trillion of this off-balance sheet exposure and they're hardly alone in the (ab)use of these "QSPEs" - indeed, those are the same sort of vehicles that a really great energy-related company called ENRON was (ab)using to hide mounting losses that ultimately blew them sky-high." Note to Karl, stay away from the 5hr Energy man. You will blow. I can feel the angst being transmitted from your keyboard into mine and I don't need any more angst in my life right now.
OK, I'm not sure if this headline is a joke or not, Greenspan Calls Market Top Buahahahahaha, ROF, puke out nose, shart in pants! Thank you Naked Capitalism for my best laugh of the day. You mean the man with the troop of 1,000 economists (some salaried and some contracted) that all monitor this shit daily and missed the top in the first place, and YOU, yes you all by your little self, pull this out of your ass? You got to be freaking kiddin me? Uh, Mr. Greenspan, and your credibility to call this top would be? Yes? It would be?
Mish brings a rosy report from Rosenberg in Rosenberg: “We are certainly in a deflationary state”. "“We are certainly in a deflationary state,” said David Rosenberg, chief economist and strategist with Gluskin Sheff and Associates in Toronto. “Of that, there's no doubt. I think people still have no clue as to just how weak the economy is,” Mr. Rosenberg said." Uh, ok, now that is not what I heard on CNBS or from the leading ML analyst that took your old job. David, have you not had your government mandated green shoot tea today? Please report to the infirmary at once.
The Pragmatic Capitalist comes thru with it's daily must read in MUST READ: THE REAL REASON BEHIND THE FED SECRECY Sveeeet! You all know I love this shit.
“I believe that banking institutions are more dangerous to our liberties than standing armies. If the American people ever allow private banks to control the issue of their currency, first by inflation, then by deflation, the banks and corporations that will grow up around [the banks] will deprive the people of all property until their children wake-up homeless on the continent their fathers conquered. The issuing power should be taken from the banks and restored to the people, to whom it properly belongs.”
- Thomas Jefferson
(Note: support audit the Fed HERE.)
Bhuahahahaha, ROF, puke out nose, shart in pants again! Oooh, better go clean that up.
Have a great night. Bhuahahahaha. He called a top. OMG, that's funny as shit.
Wednesday, September 23, 2009
What A Relaxing Afternoon!
I feel great! Gonna make it a quick late post tonight. Great action this afternoon as the market told Benny and the Jets to stick it after the pop up after the announcement. I feel for those bulls that ran it up right after the statement. It is my turn to sleep well tonight and their turn to figure out what happened.
Zero Hedge had a great news day today. Tons of good stuff over there. I picked Over $7 Billion In Domestic Equity Mutual Fund Outflows In September. $2 Billion In Outflows Last Week to cover here. Simple post with a great message and chart, "ICI has released its most recent fund flow data, and while overall flows have been positive, this has been exclusively due to a ramp up in taxable and municipal fund inflows. In equities, there has not been one positive inflow since August 12. Last week saw a $2 billion outflow from domestic equity mutual funds, bringing the total for the last month to $7.1 billion. Attached are equity flows superimposed over the performance of the SPY." OK, so the market has been ramping wile the MF's have been aggressively pulling out of equities (guess there WAS something to all that insider selling going on. Look for more defections as the month comes to an end and they try to protect the QE statements.
Prag Cap has WHY DOES THE MARKET KEEP GOING UP? This is a nice step back from hearing me and the rest of the blogosphere bitch about manipulation and ramp jobs, "This is a question that confounds those on the sidelines and aggravates the bears to no end. Many attribute it to some sort of bank or government engineered conspiracy theory. Others say it is simply performance chasing by large money managers. Personally, I find the answer in the psychological."
The Market Ticker brings home Watch That Thesis! (FOMC Announcement). Don't you know Karl probably ate a hole in his chair waiting to get his hands on this one. LOL, he does a good job ripping it apart and then actually makes a trading call, "Nice shelf to get short at; take it down if we break materially over 1080. Either economic fundamentals assert themselves as deserving of these valuations or we're a solid 2,000 DOW points (and 200 SPX points) or more above where we should be. As a trade the risk:reward looks better than it has in months; you're risking ~10-20 handles on the SPX to potentially capture 200!" I agree 100% and will probably say something very similar (as I have been for a while) in the am.
Naked Capitalism (as well as ZH and now me) has Guest Post: William K. Black’s Proposal for “Systemically Dangerous Institutions”. A nice short and concise post by Professor Black on how to fix this mess, Since he has "some background" in fixing bank issues.
This is some must read juicy shit right here, ZH has Is The Fed Hiding Gold Swap Arrangements With Foreign Central Banks?. More on this will follow soon, and this emphasizes the need for Ron Paul's 1207 legislation. Folks, this is where the big boys play ball and manipulate the dollar and gold markets behind the scenes (and they say they can't predict the prices of certain assets, hell, they control EVERYTHING!).
On a side note, Mish has I Endorse Peter Schiff For Senate. I could not agree more. Peter and Rand Paul are two we need to get behind. Why am I bringing politics in here, cause we got to take the trash out and get some people in office that are not hand maidens to the ruling elite. We need some bad boys that follow their own path. You can see a recent video post I did with Peter HERE. If you have a politician that should be supported for election, send me an email and a link to their site. This election is gonna be a big deal and I want the right people promoted as much as possible.
Thanks for the views, comments and emails.
GL Trading!
Zero Hedge had a great news day today. Tons of good stuff over there. I picked Over $7 Billion In Domestic Equity Mutual Fund Outflows In September. $2 Billion In Outflows Last Week to cover here. Simple post with a great message and chart, "ICI has released its most recent fund flow data, and while overall flows have been positive, this has been exclusively due to a ramp up in taxable and municipal fund inflows. In equities, there has not been one positive inflow since August 12. Last week saw a $2 billion outflow from domestic equity mutual funds, bringing the total for the last month to $7.1 billion. Attached are equity flows superimposed over the performance of the SPY." OK, so the market has been ramping wile the MF's have been aggressively pulling out of equities (guess there WAS something to all that insider selling going on. Look for more defections as the month comes to an end and they try to protect the QE statements.
Prag Cap has WHY DOES THE MARKET KEEP GOING UP? This is a nice step back from hearing me and the rest of the blogosphere bitch about manipulation and ramp jobs, "This is a question that confounds those on the sidelines and aggravates the bears to no end. Many attribute it to some sort of bank or government engineered conspiracy theory. Others say it is simply performance chasing by large money managers. Personally, I find the answer in the psychological."
The Market Ticker brings home Watch That Thesis! (FOMC Announcement). Don't you know Karl probably ate a hole in his chair waiting to get his hands on this one. LOL, he does a good job ripping it apart and then actually makes a trading call, "Nice shelf to get short at; take it down if we break materially over 1080. Either economic fundamentals assert themselves as deserving of these valuations or we're a solid 2,000 DOW points (and 200 SPX points) or more above where we should be. As a trade the risk:reward looks better than it has in months; you're risking ~10-20 handles on the SPX to potentially capture 200!" I agree 100% and will probably say something very similar (as I have been for a while) in the am.
Naked Capitalism (as well as ZH and now me) has Guest Post: William K. Black’s Proposal for “Systemically Dangerous Institutions”. A nice short and concise post by Professor Black on how to fix this mess, Since he has "some background" in fixing bank issues.
This is some must read juicy shit right here, ZH has Is The Fed Hiding Gold Swap Arrangements With Foreign Central Banks?. More on this will follow soon, and this emphasizes the need for Ron Paul's 1207 legislation. Folks, this is where the big boys play ball and manipulate the dollar and gold markets behind the scenes (and they say they can't predict the prices of certain assets, hell, they control EVERYTHING!).
On a side note, Mish has I Endorse Peter Schiff For Senate. I could not agree more. Peter and Rand Paul are two we need to get behind. Why am I bringing politics in here, cause we got to take the trash out and get some people in office that are not hand maidens to the ruling elite. We need some bad boys that follow their own path. You can see a recent video post I did with Peter HERE. If you have a politician that should be supported for election, send me an email and a link to their site. This election is gonna be a big deal and I want the right people promoted as much as possible.
Thanks for the views, comments and emails.
GL Trading!
Wednesday, September 9, 2009
Afternoon Delight - Which Way Do We Go? (Mini Rant)
This is a copy of a post I did for www.stocktock.com.
IMO this is a really tough point in the market right now. You have the bears all (rightfully) screaming how bad things are and then you have GS throwing out upgrades like candy. Is this the end of 2 of 1 of P3 and we have a 3 of 1 in our sights? Is this 1 or 3 of C of P2 up? What is an investor to do? Really tough point right here. One thing for sure, nut cuttin time is upon us and we’ll know for sure pretty soon which count is right. A higher high places the P3 top callers on hold a little while longer and keeps us on the parabolic train of love.
Update: NASDAQ hit a new high. SPX stopped withing 2 points. Dow came within 60 points. This may have some screaming double top.
A simple glance at the weekly indicators combined with the P/E multiples of the SPX (and the plethora of other financial and economic issues) and you get that dizzy feeling like you are standing on a girder about 1,000 feet up with no safety rope or net. All it will take is one stiff wind and you are toast.
So Shanky, what’s the problem? Why can’t you figure out which way we should go? Well, GS and the Fed and the Treasury and our government are the problem. You see the reflation trade has been blowing smoke up this economy’s butt for over a year now and has created nothing but optimism of a V shaped recovery. This is what you firmly believe if you are a CNBS disciple, yet that is not reality IMO. The TARP funds have been nothing but a prop for the still IMO insolvent banks. The TARP funds were a waste of good money being thrown down the rabbit hole of economic fantasy.
Why bother to reflate the bubble that got you all of the problems in the first place? So the insolvent banks can put on a pump and dump and take all your money so they can survive. Who gives a shit about you or your future, you little worm undisciplined ignorant investor? The banks are the big boys and they need to survive. You dear investor are an expendable asset in this shell game.
IMO America has been taken to the bank by first Paulson and his fear mongering and second Bernanke, Timmay and the administration. Here is the deal and Karl Denninger at The Market Ticker loves to harp on this. The banks made the bad loans and are not having to pay the price – YOU ARE. You can’t have it both ways. You can’t take from the poor and give to the rich and make it work. You see the consumer is 70% of GDP and without the consumer having jobs, credit, savings and some sort of manageable debt ratio, it all fails. You see, they sucked us all in (well most of us) to the cheap credit must own a home inflated bullshit rape of American wealth. Did they give a shit about you or me. Hell no! This is where fractional reserve lending comes in.
In Ron Paul’s absolutely must read End The Fed you get to know the history of the Fed, fractional reserve lending and how and why we got where we are today. You see those greedy mofo’s wanted it all. They wanted to die with the most toys and win the game. Problem is the game is still going. They screwed the game for everyone and now YOUR government is basically siding with the banksters and saving their collective asses and leaving us out to dry.
This is bullshit and leads us back to why P3 will happen and any other count is a bunch of crap. To learn what I think is the truth please visit Zero Hedge as it is IMO the best resource on the web for the truth about manipulated markets and the shenanigans they are playing with your welfare. The pump and dump is nearing an end. P/E multiples are exponentially high. Insider sells are at a 95 to 5 ratio. 40% of mortgages are underwater, CRE will crash, unemployment will continue to grow and is not being factually reported, the consumer is dead, blah, blah, blah and CNBS will lead you to believe the Haynes bottom is in and a V shaped recovery is all but guaranteed. WAKE UP SHEEPLE! You dear reader/investor have to make a choice here and soon. Do you feel lucky? Will the manipulators carry out the scam of 1,000 years and continue the HFT front running and market prop to even further unsustainable heights or does it turn here? Is this P3 or P2? We’ll know in a week or so which count is right.
Sorry I can’t answer the question for you, but I have done really well siding with the manipulators. I still believe we are in P2 and have one more leg up to C. Maybe the mutual funds have enough in them to get one more good QE statement out of the market. Maybe there are a few more upgrades left or GS will create a new “super buy” recommendation to garner a little more room for further upgrades. Maybe Ben will trump the dollar down to complete its wave count one last time. I have wanted a 1050 to 1121 top in early October, so I will stick to the call. BUT I will also be playing it as the market top is in. I am not playing this or any speculated run up. I am short in SDS at this time and looking to add to shorts. I do have a plan and stops in place if the trade should go bad, but I will not chase this move any higher at this time.
GL trading,
Shanky
IMO this is a really tough point in the market right now. You have the bears all (rightfully) screaming how bad things are and then you have GS throwing out upgrades like candy. Is this the end of 2 of 1 of P3 and we have a 3 of 1 in our sights? Is this 1 or 3 of C of P2 up? What is an investor to do? Really tough point right here. One thing for sure, nut cuttin time is upon us and we’ll know for sure pretty soon which count is right. A higher high places the P3 top callers on hold a little while longer and keeps us on the parabolic train of love.
Update: NASDAQ hit a new high. SPX stopped withing 2 points. Dow came within 60 points. This may have some screaming double top.
A simple glance at the weekly indicators combined with the P/E multiples of the SPX (and the plethora of other financial and economic issues) and you get that dizzy feeling like you are standing on a girder about 1,000 feet up with no safety rope or net. All it will take is one stiff wind and you are toast.
So Shanky, what’s the problem? Why can’t you figure out which way we should go? Well, GS and the Fed and the Treasury and our government are the problem. You see the reflation trade has been blowing smoke up this economy’s butt for over a year now and has created nothing but optimism of a V shaped recovery. This is what you firmly believe if you are a CNBS disciple, yet that is not reality IMO. The TARP funds have been nothing but a prop for the still IMO insolvent banks. The TARP funds were a waste of good money being thrown down the rabbit hole of economic fantasy.
Why bother to reflate the bubble that got you all of the problems in the first place? So the insolvent banks can put on a pump and dump and take all your money so they can survive. Who gives a shit about you or your future, you little worm undisciplined ignorant investor? The banks are the big boys and they need to survive. You dear investor are an expendable asset in this shell game.
IMO America has been taken to the bank by first Paulson and his fear mongering and second Bernanke, Timmay and the administration. Here is the deal and Karl Denninger at The Market Ticker loves to harp on this. The banks made the bad loans and are not having to pay the price – YOU ARE. You can’t have it both ways. You can’t take from the poor and give to the rich and make it work. You see the consumer is 70% of GDP and without the consumer having jobs, credit, savings and some sort of manageable debt ratio, it all fails. You see, they sucked us all in (well most of us) to the cheap credit must own a home inflated bullshit rape of American wealth. Did they give a shit about you or me. Hell no! This is where fractional reserve lending comes in.
In Ron Paul’s absolutely must read End The Fed you get to know the history of the Fed, fractional reserve lending and how and why we got where we are today. You see those greedy mofo’s wanted it all. They wanted to die with the most toys and win the game. Problem is the game is still going. They screwed the game for everyone and now YOUR government is basically siding with the banksters and saving their collective asses and leaving us out to dry.
This is bullshit and leads us back to why P3 will happen and any other count is a bunch of crap. To learn what I think is the truth please visit Zero Hedge as it is IMO the best resource on the web for the truth about manipulated markets and the shenanigans they are playing with your welfare. The pump and dump is nearing an end. P/E multiples are exponentially high. Insider sells are at a 95 to 5 ratio. 40% of mortgages are underwater, CRE will crash, unemployment will continue to grow and is not being factually reported, the consumer is dead, blah, blah, blah and CNBS will lead you to believe the Haynes bottom is in and a V shaped recovery is all but guaranteed. WAKE UP SHEEPLE! You dear reader/investor have to make a choice here and soon. Do you feel lucky? Will the manipulators carry out the scam of 1,000 years and continue the HFT front running and market prop to even further unsustainable heights or does it turn here? Is this P3 or P2? We’ll know in a week or so which count is right.
Sorry I can’t answer the question for you, but I have done really well siding with the manipulators. I still believe we are in P2 and have one more leg up to C. Maybe the mutual funds have enough in them to get one more good QE statement out of the market. Maybe there are a few more upgrades left or GS will create a new “super buy” recommendation to garner a little more room for further upgrades. Maybe Ben will trump the dollar down to complete its wave count one last time. I have wanted a 1050 to 1121 top in early October, so I will stick to the call. BUT I will also be playing it as the market top is in. I am not playing this or any speculated run up. I am short in SDS at this time and looking to add to shorts. I do have a plan and stops in place if the trade should go bad, but I will not chase this move any higher at this time.
GL trading,
Shanky
Tuesday, September 8, 2009
Teetering At The Top? This Is One Heck Of A Balancing Act!
But the top of what? Is the game coming to an end? The end Tom Brokaw says that we're too ignorant to see, and that we can't figure out on our own on the Internet without mother media being the deliverer of such news? The end CNBS refuses to report? The end the government and TBTF banks refuse to allow? The end the Fed may have allowed to happen? The end that was inevitable since this credit bubble was unleashed? The end that was foretold before fractional reserve banking was allowed?
More and more this appears to be a time to socialize, or to further the process of socialization begun many years ago. Everywhere you look this once great nation of nations is becoming one massive government sponsored program after another. Unfortunately they have failed at a high majority of these and hopefully this is just the end of a cycle. A time of purging excess from the system.
Zero Hedge has Excess Liquidity Game Is Coming To An End. I which TD brings us this from David Rosenberg's daily notes, "In his daily notes, Rosie looks at what is sure to cause a few sleepless nights to all trend chasers who believe that the trillions in excess liquidity will be there to forever prop up artificially high stock prices. News flash - it won't, and it has already started to contract aggressively, yet computers seem to have problems with pulling down St. Louis Fed time series in their quest to constantly front-run one another." David, Big Ben is "making it rain" man just like Packman does in Vegas. Don't you ever get out to have any fun? What's so wrong with a little excess funds floating around?
David has been spot on thus far and his exit from Mother Merrill was timely and I would love to know the true reasons as to the timing of his exit. His successor surely is towing the corporate line as ZH brings us Rosenberg Replacement Reaches For The Stratosphere, Sees 1,200 S&P On "Strong Earnings Growth". "The Chief US Equity Strategist and Rosie replacement sees an S&P earnings of approximately $70, or roughly a Div/0 compared to the most recent negative trailing EPS for S&P companies. How Bianco sees earnings growth on limited cost extraction and a persistently declining top line is just slightly beyond our meager calculating skills." Another glowing report from ML! Surprise! Someone care to do the math on a 1200 P/E for the market? Did you hear about the JPM upgrade of GE? This is NUTS!
Then from The Market Ticker Denninger delivers FLASH: Consumer Credit RECORD Contraction. "The inevitable contraction that is necessary to put the financial system back into balance is happening - whether The Fed wants it to or not." What Karl, you mean the reflation trick isn't working anymore?
Mish tells us the great news in Job Creation Down 35%, Consumer Spending Down 33% From Year Ago. "Bear in mind I think unemployment is going to continue rising for another year, then come back down slowly and reluctantly as noted in Structurally High Unemployment For A Decade. Thus a jobless recovery is a given, assuming there even is a recovery worth mentioning." I would love to get Mish geeked up on about five 5hr energy drinks before he does his next post. Nah, that would make him more like me and we don't need another me.
The Big Picture has a great post New Week, New Links where you can glean such delightful tidbits like, 86% of all mortgages are taxpayer backed in some form or another or Study Says World’s Stocks Controlled by Select Few and The Sorry Tale of America’s Out-of-control Spending. This post summarized all sorts of delightful information of our green shootless economy.
Folks, I have not mentioned the dollar, treasury auctions, gold, oil, FNM, RE, CRE, CDS, MBS, China, medicare, social security or pick a war that were funding. That is a huge heap of shit we're dealing with and our president has time to have a twenty minute 9/11 conspiracy interview with Charlie Sheen (not really). The purging of excesses is JUST underway and will continue till some form of sustainable measure is attained. Remember without a gold standard of valuation you can exponentially expand your lending capabilities to exponential proportions and we have done just that. There is more shit off balance sheets than we can count.
Our government has allowed the vastly unregulated banks to run all over us. You were given the keys to the kingdom in exchange for allowing (unintentionally) them to rape you of your financial freedom all for greed, profit and power. The house of cards is teetering and will crumble soon. It is inevitable. Just be ready when it hits. It may be sooner than you can imagine. Tom Brokaw will let you know when.
More and more this appears to be a time to socialize, or to further the process of socialization begun many years ago. Everywhere you look this once great nation of nations is becoming one massive government sponsored program after another. Unfortunately they have failed at a high majority of these and hopefully this is just the end of a cycle. A time of purging excess from the system.
Zero Hedge has Excess Liquidity Game Is Coming To An End. I which TD brings us this from David Rosenberg's daily notes, "In his daily notes, Rosie looks at what is sure to cause a few sleepless nights to all trend chasers who believe that the trillions in excess liquidity will be there to forever prop up artificially high stock prices. News flash - it won't, and it has already started to contract aggressively, yet computers seem to have problems with pulling down St. Louis Fed time series in their quest to constantly front-run one another." David, Big Ben is "making it rain" man just like Packman does in Vegas. Don't you ever get out to have any fun? What's so wrong with a little excess funds floating around?
David has been spot on thus far and his exit from Mother Merrill was timely and I would love to know the true reasons as to the timing of his exit. His successor surely is towing the corporate line as ZH brings us Rosenberg Replacement Reaches For The Stratosphere, Sees 1,200 S&P On "Strong Earnings Growth". "The Chief US Equity Strategist and Rosie replacement sees an S&P earnings of approximately $70, or roughly a Div/0 compared to the most recent negative trailing EPS for S&P companies. How Bianco sees earnings growth on limited cost extraction and a persistently declining top line is just slightly beyond our meager calculating skills." Another glowing report from ML! Surprise! Someone care to do the math on a 1200 P/E for the market? Did you hear about the JPM upgrade of GE? This is NUTS!
Then from The Market Ticker Denninger delivers FLASH: Consumer Credit RECORD Contraction. "The inevitable contraction that is necessary to put the financial system back into balance is happening - whether The Fed wants it to or not." What Karl, you mean the reflation trick isn't working anymore?
Mish tells us the great news in Job Creation Down 35%, Consumer Spending Down 33% From Year Ago. "Bear in mind I think unemployment is going to continue rising for another year, then come back down slowly and reluctantly as noted in Structurally High Unemployment For A Decade. Thus a jobless recovery is a given, assuming there even is a recovery worth mentioning." I would love to get Mish geeked up on about five 5hr energy drinks before he does his next post. Nah, that would make him more like me and we don't need another me.
The Big Picture has a great post New Week, New Links where you can glean such delightful tidbits like, 86% of all mortgages are taxpayer backed in some form or another or Study Says World’s Stocks Controlled by Select Few and The Sorry Tale of America’s Out-of-control Spending. This post summarized all sorts of delightful information of our green shootless economy.
Folks, I have not mentioned the dollar, treasury auctions, gold, oil, FNM, RE, CRE, CDS, MBS, China, medicare, social security or pick a war that were funding. That is a huge heap of shit we're dealing with and our president has time to have a twenty minute 9/11 conspiracy interview with Charlie Sheen (not really). The purging of excesses is JUST underway and will continue till some form of sustainable measure is attained. Remember without a gold standard of valuation you can exponentially expand your lending capabilities to exponential proportions and we have done just that. There is more shit off balance sheets than we can count.
Our government has allowed the vastly unregulated banks to run all over us. You were given the keys to the kingdom in exchange for allowing (unintentionally) them to rape you of your financial freedom all for greed, profit and power. The house of cards is teetering and will crumble soon. It is inevitable. Just be ready when it hits. It may be sooner than you can imagine. Tom Brokaw will let you know when.
Monday, August 31, 2009
Calling all P3ers. Your Day Is Nearing. (T-Minus 42 Days to My Target)
Let's start with Impending Crash? from Denninger at The Market Ticker. In a simple post Karl makes some nice points without calling a top (emphasis mine). "Nobody - and I do mean nobody - is talking about what this sort of volume pattern means. Well, I will: this is the sort of pattern that precedes an all-on equity market collapse. It strongly implies that the only volume support that the market has is from "hot money" speculators. Lest you think this is sustainable let me point out that just a few weeks ago the very same so-called "commentators" said the same thing about China's market."
Karl's post follows the sentiment of many of my posts over the past couple of weeks and my sentiment regarding some of the "advisers" that I hear stories about via email and conversation. You all know that I began moving clients to cash at 936. A bit early and still not 100% there, but the idea of anyone buying anything here? Sheer stupidity. Still being long here, OK, but buying? To those of you that use an "adviser", please be careful and remember they have two mortgages and 4 car payments that you are responsible for. What do you need to do - have a set plan for each purchase, stick to it and always use stops. You two have different agendas. Don't forget that.
TD at Zero Hedge has a nice post on Head Of China Sovereign Wealth Fund Openly Admits Asset Bubble Addressed By Creation Of More Bubbles. "In a phenomenal demonstration of frankness and true economic assessment, the head of the China Investment Council, Lou Jiwei, who controls China's $298 billion sovereign wealth fund, admits the ponzi nature of today's markets" What the heck? Ponzi nature of today's markets? Heloooo - TARP MONEY. Let me ask you one freaking question. Why the FUCK do we have to hear this out of China? Congratulations, our representatives and current administration have corrupted this nation so bad we now have to hear truth out of China.
We here at Shanky's Tech Blog have been discussing the fraudulent and irresponsible actions of the Fed, Treasury and Congress since my first post. It has been so clear that they have been doing nothing but trying to re-inflate the bubble to delay or somehow prolong the bubble instead of simply taking their medicine. Actually all they have done is waste trillions of our wealth dumping good money into a bad situation. If they had just made the banks RESPONSIBLE for their bad loans and not the people our futures would be much less hyperinflated and much more enjoyable.
Want a good laugh - well not really - want a good look at some figures behind the savings rates in this country? What is it you won't hear from the 1% CNBS pundits? Naked Capitalism has a nice guest post from Andrew Kaplan - Guest Post: “The Savings Rate Has Recovered…if You Ignore the Bottom 99%” (emphasis mine) "If we expand our survey to the top 1% of all households, we find an average income of $1.36 million for 2007. These folks had an average federal tax burden of just under 33%, so their after tax income averaged $916 thousand. If you assume this group had a savings rate of 33%, you get total savings of $452 billion (remember, $171.5 bn of this comes from the top 0.01%, we’re assuming a savings rate of around 25% of after tax income for the “poorer” 99% of the top 1%) This is more than 100% of the personal savings of the entire population, according to the BEA data. It implies that 99% of the US population still has, on average, a negative savings rate of around 1.3%. If you subtract the next nine percent, which likely still has a positive savings rate, the data for the bottom 90% becomes even more depressing, implying a negative savings rate of close to 5%." Now get you some of that green shooters. That deserves a Nature Boy Rick Flair WOOOOOOO! "To be the man you gotta beat the man."
One last post from TD at ZH - This Should End The Semantic Debate Over Whether The Fed Is Monetizing. So they are or are not monetizing the debt? Of course they are, but they think the sheeple are ignorant morons and have no clue what is going on not just under their noses, but right in front of their faces. How else do you classify the Feds repo of the treasuries from the PD's?
On the market - As long as SPX holds 1015 the bulls have a chance. Ramp jobs galore at that number. You would not think the PPT would be participating at the top. Wonder what they are protecting up here? The Big Picture has a good post today on Recent Concentration of Volume in Financial Stocks: Coordinated Capital Infusion? that you need to read. "I’m not inclined toward conspiracy theories, but it’s difficult to imagine a scenario in which this is not a (frighteningly necessary) coordinated capital infusion, with taxpayer dollars ultimately at work in financial markets." (emphasis mine)
UPDATE: ZH pulls out this doozy on insider selling and the levitation act - TrimTabs' CEO Charles Biderman Discusses Massive Insider Selling. This is must watch IMO. If you are not a believer in manipulation and the pump and dump, maybe this will help change your mind.
It is very toppy and the consolidation in the past 7 days between 1020 and 1032 screams the bears may have run out of steam. Problem is the sellers are not showing up and the volume is not there. I'm still looking for a higher high (but playing it as the top may be in) as the weeklys don't have the necessary divergences and the sucker rally blow off top total enthusiastic gazmotron top has not been set. The vampire squid has not fully drained its victim just yet. Let 'em print one more statement at QE in September, then look out.
On a side note the computer at work is finally fixed. I never got rid of the virus and trashed everything. Luckily I had a virus free data backup where I did not lose too much work. I also entered the world of dual monitors today. Wow, somewhere near heaven is all I got to say. Sorry I resisted it and then procrastinated on this one. Simply awesome.
GL trading.
Karl's post follows the sentiment of many of my posts over the past couple of weeks and my sentiment regarding some of the "advisers" that I hear stories about via email and conversation. You all know that I began moving clients to cash at 936. A bit early and still not 100% there, but the idea of anyone buying anything here? Sheer stupidity. Still being long here, OK, but buying? To those of you that use an "adviser", please be careful and remember they have two mortgages and 4 car payments that you are responsible for. What do you need to do - have a set plan for each purchase, stick to it and always use stops. You two have different agendas. Don't forget that.
TD at Zero Hedge has a nice post on Head Of China Sovereign Wealth Fund Openly Admits Asset Bubble Addressed By Creation Of More Bubbles. "In a phenomenal demonstration of frankness and true economic assessment, the head of the China Investment Council, Lou Jiwei, who controls China's $298 billion sovereign wealth fund, admits the ponzi nature of today's markets" What the heck? Ponzi nature of today's markets? Heloooo - TARP MONEY. Let me ask you one freaking question. Why the FUCK do we have to hear this out of China? Congratulations, our representatives and current administration have corrupted this nation so bad we now have to hear truth out of China.
We here at Shanky's Tech Blog have been discussing the fraudulent and irresponsible actions of the Fed, Treasury and Congress since my first post. It has been so clear that they have been doing nothing but trying to re-inflate the bubble to delay or somehow prolong the bubble instead of simply taking their medicine. Actually all they have done is waste trillions of our wealth dumping good money into a bad situation. If they had just made the banks RESPONSIBLE for their bad loans and not the people our futures would be much less hyperinflated and much more enjoyable.
Want a good laugh - well not really - want a good look at some figures behind the savings rates in this country? What is it you won't hear from the 1% CNBS pundits? Naked Capitalism has a nice guest post from Andrew Kaplan - Guest Post: “The Savings Rate Has Recovered…if You Ignore the Bottom 99%” (emphasis mine) "If we expand our survey to the top 1% of all households, we find an average income of $1.36 million for 2007. These folks had an average federal tax burden of just under 33%, so their after tax income averaged $916 thousand. If you assume this group had a savings rate of 33%, you get total savings of $452 billion (remember, $171.5 bn of this comes from the top 0.01%, we’re assuming a savings rate of around 25% of after tax income for the “poorer” 99% of the top 1%) This is more than 100% of the personal savings of the entire population, according to the BEA data. It implies that 99% of the US population still has, on average, a negative savings rate of around 1.3%. If you subtract the next nine percent, which likely still has a positive savings rate, the data for the bottom 90% becomes even more depressing, implying a negative savings rate of close to 5%." Now get you some of that green shooters. That deserves a Nature Boy Rick Flair WOOOOOOO! "To be the man you gotta beat the man."
One last post from TD at ZH - This Should End The Semantic Debate Over Whether The Fed Is Monetizing. So they are or are not monetizing the debt? Of course they are, but they think the sheeple are ignorant morons and have no clue what is going on not just under their noses, but right in front of their faces. How else do you classify the Feds repo of the treasuries from the PD's?
On the market - As long as SPX holds 1015 the bulls have a chance. Ramp jobs galore at that number. You would not think the PPT would be participating at the top. Wonder what they are protecting up here? The Big Picture has a good post today on Recent Concentration of Volume in Financial Stocks: Coordinated Capital Infusion? that you need to read. "I’m not inclined toward conspiracy theories, but it’s difficult to imagine a scenario in which this is not a (frighteningly necessary) coordinated capital infusion, with taxpayer dollars ultimately at work in financial markets." (emphasis mine)
UPDATE: ZH pulls out this doozy on insider selling and the levitation act - TrimTabs' CEO Charles Biderman Discusses Massive Insider Selling. This is must watch IMO. If you are not a believer in manipulation and the pump and dump, maybe this will help change your mind.
It is very toppy and the consolidation in the past 7 days between 1020 and 1032 screams the bears may have run out of steam. Problem is the sellers are not showing up and the volume is not there. I'm still looking for a higher high (but playing it as the top may be in) as the weeklys don't have the necessary divergences and the sucker rally blow off top total enthusiastic gazmotron top has not been set. The vampire squid has not fully drained its victim just yet. Let 'em print one more statement at QE in September, then look out.
On a side note the computer at work is finally fixed. I never got rid of the virus and trashed everything. Luckily I had a virus free data backup where I did not lose too much work. I also entered the world of dual monitors today. Wow, somewhere near heaven is all I got to say. Sorry I resisted it and then procrastinated on this one. Simply awesome.
GL trading.
Wednesday, August 26, 2009
OOOOH She's Getting Toppy (Or Is She?) And Some News
First to the news. It never ceases to amaze me the crap that we are fed daily thru the media moguls. I guess they think they know what "sells" best, so why report the important shit that may make a difference in your life? Glad I am not stamped out of the standard sheeple form. That would suck, but then again, I would not know it.
USA today reports that more demand will be front loaded to make the back end worse. No not really. In Appliances get their own recycled clunkers programs we learn that "But old energy-hogging refrigerators and freezers qualify for recycling and cash from more than 60 utilities across the nation. And the federal government is making money available to states so consumers could get rebates of $50 to $200 for new, more energy-efficient appliances later this year in a so-called "cash for appliances" program.".
The article also covers the success of the CARS program, but what does the major rag leave out? Let Denninger at The Market Ticker fill in the blanks. In Government (And Car Dealers) Hose You Again, Karl gives you the low down on the truth behind the curtain. "So you get nailed at least once and possibly twice. Specifically, you pay sales tax on the full vehicle price (effectively paying sales tax on the $4,500!) and what's worse those states that tax income (that would be most of them!) might wind up counting this as income for state income tax purposes too, effectively taxing you twice."
While we're bangin on bullshit media reports, how could we leave CNBS out of the equation? That would not be fair and equal treatment since they are the crown jewel of crap. TD at Zero Hedge pulls this gem in 16 Year Low In Housing Inventory On Record 1,939,197 Foreclosures. The title kind of says it all. Maybe the market is now seeing thru their shit as the muted response to their reports are now becoming more common.
If you have not seen it on ZH or many other sites, the article of the day comes from Chris Martenson, The Shell Game - How the Federal Reserve is Monetizing Debt. This was written for his subscribers back in early august and just released. Must read central if you want to understand how they are financing (term used loosely) our recovery. "The Federal Reserve is monetizing US Treasury debt and is doing so openly, both through its $300 billion commitment to buy Treasuries and by engaging in a sleight of hand maneuver that would make a street hustler from Brooklyn blush. This report will wade through some technical details in order to illuminate a complicated issue, but you should take the time to learn about this because it is essential to understanding what the future may hold." If you want to understand most likely the greatest threat to our country's future (IMO) read it. I liken it to the Rolling Stone GS article by Talibi.
As for the market, I am now doing a morning post, so check in the am if you want to know what I am thinking about the day ahead. So far so good on the call. 1 for 1 baby! Maybe I should quit now? (see below). Right now some are calling the top as being in and others say we are getting close. I am skeptical that the top is in, but would not be surprised if it is. I think we need a major down day to mark the moment. I am of the opinion that they will not let it go just yet. They may need one more month to get the quarterly statements right. I'm sticking with my 1050 to 1121 top in October (12th to be exact).
The indicators are severely overbought. I do not like what the dailys are doing right now as they are sitting in a precarious spot looking to go wither way. The 60m indicators have proven not to be reliable as can be seen during this last run up when they fell the whole time and had zero effect on the market. The weeklys are topping. Volume is dead of course. The VIX might flat line down here with the economy.
Tomorrow has jobs and GDP. I am not sure how they will massage the numbers yet. I added a second third to my SDS position today with some caution and a tight stop at the close(first entry at 1006 SPX). Dangerous before the numbers, but willing to take the risk with the small play and the possibility that any pop will be short lived. The market has been ignoring some of the "good" news here and feels toppy. We'll see.
GL trading.
Or view chart HERE.
USA today reports that more demand will be front loaded to make the back end worse. No not really. In Appliances get their own recycled clunkers programs we learn that "But old energy-hogging refrigerators and freezers qualify for recycling and cash from more than 60 utilities across the nation. And the federal government is making money available to states so consumers could get rebates of $50 to $200 for new, more energy-efficient appliances later this year in a so-called "cash for appliances" program.".
The article also covers the success of the CARS program, but what does the major rag leave out? Let Denninger at The Market Ticker fill in the blanks. In Government (And Car Dealers) Hose You Again, Karl gives you the low down on the truth behind the curtain. "So you get nailed at least once and possibly twice. Specifically, you pay sales tax on the full vehicle price (effectively paying sales tax on the $4,500!) and what's worse those states that tax income (that would be most of them!) might wind up counting this as income for state income tax purposes too, effectively taxing you twice."
While we're bangin on bullshit media reports, how could we leave CNBS out of the equation? That would not be fair and equal treatment since they are the crown jewel of crap. TD at Zero Hedge pulls this gem in 16 Year Low In Housing Inventory On Record 1,939,197 Foreclosures. The title kind of says it all. Maybe the market is now seeing thru their shit as the muted response to their reports are now becoming more common.
If you have not seen it on ZH or many other sites, the article of the day comes from Chris Martenson, The Shell Game - How the Federal Reserve is Monetizing Debt. This was written for his subscribers back in early august and just released. Must read central if you want to understand how they are financing (term used loosely) our recovery. "The Federal Reserve is monetizing US Treasury debt and is doing so openly, both through its $300 billion commitment to buy Treasuries and by engaging in a sleight of hand maneuver that would make a street hustler from Brooklyn blush. This report will wade through some technical details in order to illuminate a complicated issue, but you should take the time to learn about this because it is essential to understanding what the future may hold." If you want to understand most likely the greatest threat to our country's future (IMO) read it. I liken it to the Rolling Stone GS article by Talibi.
As for the market, I am now doing a morning post, so check in the am if you want to know what I am thinking about the day ahead. So far so good on the call. 1 for 1 baby! Maybe I should quit now? (see below). Right now some are calling the top as being in and others say we are getting close. I am skeptical that the top is in, but would not be surprised if it is. I think we need a major down day to mark the moment. I am of the opinion that they will not let it go just yet. They may need one more month to get the quarterly statements right. I'm sticking with my 1050 to 1121 top in October (12th to be exact).
The indicators are severely overbought. I do not like what the dailys are doing right now as they are sitting in a precarious spot looking to go wither way. The 60m indicators have proven not to be reliable as can be seen during this last run up when they fell the whole time and had zero effect on the market. The weeklys are topping. Volume is dead of course. The VIX might flat line down here with the economy.
Tomorrow has jobs and GDP. I am not sure how they will massage the numbers yet. I added a second third to my SDS position today with some caution and a tight stop at the close(first entry at 1006 SPX). Dangerous before the numbers, but willing to take the risk with the small play and the possibility that any pop will be short lived. The market has been ignoring some of the "good" news here and feels toppy. We'll see.
GL trading.
Or view chart HERE.
Tuesday, August 25, 2009
Cry Baby Timmay And Some Other Items
No time tonight for a lot of extras. I clipped some of the best stuff I could find from the usual suspects today. I'd read it from bottom up (it is better that way). I am leaving the Ben rehired off the list, cause it was expected. They would not do anything to disturb the markets now. I do expect him to be fired before O's first and only term is up.
Mish - Talks about the wizardry of the grand illusionists and how they have all (well, most) of us fooled in Buying into the Rally, Hook, Line, and Sinker, "Whatever those earnings expectations are, disappointments are likely. Either earnings will miss targets, or the stock market will sink anyway because the earnings and then some have long been priced in. However, that is tomorrow's business. Today's business is about buying into the rally hook line and sinker, just as the charlatan wizards have hoped."
Prag Cap - Has an unusual Grantham bear quote? This is strange and almost makes me want to be bullish. JEREMY GRANTHAM SAYS STOCKS ARE OVERVALUED BY 15%. I guess he has to say this once every 10 years. "Mr. Grantham sees “seven lean years” of a sluggish market ahead, to atone for what the firm believes was a long era of overpriced stocks, according to his newsletter."
Naked Cap - A little diddy on the BDI in Baltic Dry Index Down 45% From High in June "Chinese imports have been a driving factor in commodities demand, which drives the BDI. The price of imported iron ire has dropped below $100 a ton and may fall further."
The Big Picture - A good chart of the BDI since we are on the subject Daily Baltic Dry Index Volatility.
Clac Risk - This is a good one. With the "positive Schiller numbers out today, this brings you back to reality nicely. Misc: A possible 1991 House Price Headline, and Falling Rents in NYC. "Imagine a headline in June 1991 (if Case-Shiller was around): "House Prices increase at 11.6% annualized rate in June!" The horrible price declines were over ... right? Nope. Real house prices declined for almost another 5 years. Just something to remember."
The Market Ticker - I'll let Denninger handle the rosy Consumer Confidence numbers. August Confidence and Richmond Fed "If we had learned ANYTHING from the 2001-2006 debt bubble it should have been that such "programs" make the inevitable collapse WORSE."
And last but not least, from Zero Hedge - Cry baby Timmay interview where he goes into Geithner: "Fed Audit Would Be Problematic For The Country". I think a little justice wouldn't hurt, don't you? (well, it may hurt someone, but it won't be us)
GL Trading
Mish - Talks about the wizardry of the grand illusionists and how they have all (well, most) of us fooled in Buying into the Rally, Hook, Line, and Sinker, "Whatever those earnings expectations are, disappointments are likely. Either earnings will miss targets, or the stock market will sink anyway because the earnings and then some have long been priced in. However, that is tomorrow's business. Today's business is about buying into the rally hook line and sinker, just as the charlatan wizards have hoped."
Prag Cap - Has an unusual Grantham bear quote? This is strange and almost makes me want to be bullish. JEREMY GRANTHAM SAYS STOCKS ARE OVERVALUED BY 15%. I guess he has to say this once every 10 years. "Mr. Grantham sees “seven lean years” of a sluggish market ahead, to atone for what the firm believes was a long era of overpriced stocks, according to his newsletter."
Naked Cap - A little diddy on the BDI in Baltic Dry Index Down 45% From High in June "Chinese imports have been a driving factor in commodities demand, which drives the BDI. The price of imported iron ire has dropped below $100 a ton and may fall further."
The Big Picture - A good chart of the BDI since we are on the subject Daily Baltic Dry Index Volatility.
Clac Risk - This is a good one. With the "positive Schiller numbers out today, this brings you back to reality nicely. Misc: A possible 1991 House Price Headline, and Falling Rents in NYC. "Imagine a headline in June 1991 (if Case-Shiller was around): "House Prices increase at 11.6% annualized rate in June!" The horrible price declines were over ... right? Nope. Real house prices declined for almost another 5 years. Just something to remember."
The Market Ticker - I'll let Denninger handle the rosy Consumer Confidence numbers. August Confidence and Richmond Fed "If we had learned ANYTHING from the 2001-2006 debt bubble it should have been that such "programs" make the inevitable collapse WORSE."
And last but not least, from Zero Hedge - Cry baby Timmay interview where he goes into Geithner: "Fed Audit Would Be Problematic For The Country". I think a little justice wouldn't hurt, don't you? (well, it may hurt someone, but it won't be us)
GL Trading
Monday, August 24, 2009
Let's Rip On Some P3 Tonight!
Back to my roots! Let's bang on some nitty gritty tonight as the stakes are getting higher and the disinfo is getting worse. Seeing thru the numbers and bullshit is what we are looking to do. Uncover the truth. Get the word out to the masses that things are not at all right and getting worse at a pace faster than things are "getting better".
I am so tired of all the crap I hear regarding green shoots and mustard seeds or that long dead "krocus" call that bimbohead made that was as short lived as her career should be. The glossing over of bad data or the outright misrepresentation of the facts should be enough to make you want to explode. Hell, even Hufpost is getting into the act on truth reporting. When you hit that stage you know that dire straights are ahead.
IMO the public is finally catching on. I'm guessing that when 38% of the homes in the country are underwater and their portfolios are worth half what they once were even the sheeple are beginning to stir. The Daily Presidential Tracking Poll has our president at all time low ratings. "Today’s Approval Index rating reflects a slight improvement from yesterday’s record low of -14. The number who Strongly Approve ticked up a point while the number who Strongly Disapprove has moved down a point. Today is the President’s third straight day with an Approval Index rating in negative double digits." Just so you know I am not "picking" on the president, I'll add the sentiment of how the the people of the great state of Michigan feel about the economy, "In Michigan just 2% rate the economy as good or excellent while 79% say poor." Uh, that's TWO precent.
Let's move on to some market manipulation. I'll give ZH and TD a break on HFT and let Denninger take it this week. In The Lie Of "High Frequency Trading" Liquidity Karl does a great job of describing just how the illusion of liquidity is controlled and how you and I get screwed on most every trade. "So when you put in your "buy" order the HFT guys jump with glee, because they just screwed you - their pumped price gets "sold to you", but worse, the offer suddenly disappears, because there was in fact only 1,000 shares out there - all the other "offers" and "bids" were REFLECTIONS that the computer can cancel faster than you can hit them, and they DO! As the offer collapses the price skyrockets, and the rest of your order executes at a very nasty price indeed." So there you have it on plain english. Pumped price, false liquidity, and a screwed investor all in the name of profit and saving the market.
If you are looking for some cheery posts from Mish, fughedaboutit. Let's tag two! First Mish lays the wood to the falsified RE recovery in Hidden Backlog of Foreclosures. "RealtyTrac's Sharga says "We don't see much improvement until 2011." With that, mainsteam thought is staring to approach the 2012 possible bottom I suggested two years ago. At the time, no one thought home prices would fall for this long. Perhaps I will turn out to be an optimist."
UPDATE on the morgage issues: I have to throw in the ZH post Taylor, Bean, Whitaker Files For Bankruptcy, 12th Largest Mortgage Lender In H1. ""Beginning on or about August 5, 2009, Colonial froze all of TBW's accounts and refused to accept deposits, honor checks, receive wire transfers, or permit disbursements." One wonders how much the other 81 bank failures YTD have impacted existing bank-mortgage lender relationships. If one listens to the news, likely none at all... until it is of course impossible to hide these." This is just not good at all.
In Critically Under-Capitalized Banks Direct Result of "Wonderful Chain of Stupidity" Mish has a great read that is summed up here, "The WSJ article notes 'There are 1,400 banks that own mortgage-backed securities that aren't backed by government-related entities such as Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac." What we don't know is how many of those banks are levered up enough in garbage mortgages to fail." Any questions about your banks that are so well capitalized or the really "solvent" FDIC that has to insure the accounts?
I called a near term top in XLF today (see post below) and mentioned I would be playing it as if it were the big drop just in case. Well leave it up to TD and Zerohedge to come up with this gem Financials Underperform As Flight To 30 Year "Quality" Becomes Sprint. "Notably, the index and single name put/call ratio has been ramping higher, indicating big players are starting to hedge aggressively against a material drop. However, this is certainly not the first time, and on most prior occassions this move ended up being a headfake. Then again, on prior occassions the market was never as massively overbought as it has become now." The headfake is what I am guarding against in my speculation one more pop is in order. They can't let the market fail PERIOD. When it goes, almost all wealth goes and anarchy in the streest will happen.
Folks, P3 is coming. It is getting closer day by day. The lies and manipulation can not continue indefinately. They will continue the pump and dump until the tournip has no more blood left. As noted here previously, the insider selling is at rediculous levels. Those in the know are hauling ass and you should be preparing to do the same - just not quite yet.
I'll have a Mortimer Duke, "SELL SELL" post in the am. The 60m SPX is ripe for a tumble and the daily looks to be wanting to turn (whipsaw intervention not guarnateed).
GL trading.
I am so tired of all the crap I hear regarding green shoots and mustard seeds or that long dead "krocus" call that bimbohead made that was as short lived as her career should be. The glossing over of bad data or the outright misrepresentation of the facts should be enough to make you want to explode. Hell, even Hufpost is getting into the act on truth reporting. When you hit that stage you know that dire straights are ahead.
IMO the public is finally catching on. I'm guessing that when 38% of the homes in the country are underwater and their portfolios are worth half what they once were even the sheeple are beginning to stir. The Daily Presidential Tracking Poll has our president at all time low ratings. "Today’s Approval Index rating reflects a slight improvement from yesterday’s record low of -14. The number who Strongly Approve ticked up a point while the number who Strongly Disapprove has moved down a point. Today is the President’s third straight day with an Approval Index rating in negative double digits." Just so you know I am not "picking" on the president, I'll add the sentiment of how the the people of the great state of Michigan feel about the economy, "In Michigan just 2% rate the economy as good or excellent while 79% say poor." Uh, that's TWO precent.
Let's move on to some market manipulation. I'll give ZH and TD a break on HFT and let Denninger take it this week. In The Lie Of "High Frequency Trading" Liquidity Karl does a great job of describing just how the illusion of liquidity is controlled and how you and I get screwed on most every trade. "So when you put in your "buy" order the HFT guys jump with glee, because they just screwed you - their pumped price gets "sold to you", but worse, the offer suddenly disappears, because there was in fact only 1,000 shares out there - all the other "offers" and "bids" were REFLECTIONS that the computer can cancel faster than you can hit them, and they DO! As the offer collapses the price skyrockets, and the rest of your order executes at a very nasty price indeed." So there you have it on plain english. Pumped price, false liquidity, and a screwed investor all in the name of profit and saving the market.
If you are looking for some cheery posts from Mish, fughedaboutit. Let's tag two! First Mish lays the wood to the falsified RE recovery in Hidden Backlog of Foreclosures. "RealtyTrac's Sharga says "We don't see much improvement until 2011." With that, mainsteam thought is staring to approach the 2012 possible bottom I suggested two years ago. At the time, no one thought home prices would fall for this long. Perhaps I will turn out to be an optimist."
UPDATE on the morgage issues: I have to throw in the ZH post Taylor, Bean, Whitaker Files For Bankruptcy, 12th Largest Mortgage Lender In H1. ""Beginning on or about August 5, 2009, Colonial froze all of TBW's accounts and refused to accept deposits, honor checks, receive wire transfers, or permit disbursements." One wonders how much the other 81 bank failures YTD have impacted existing bank-mortgage lender relationships. If one listens to the news, likely none at all... until it is of course impossible to hide these." This is just not good at all.
In Critically Under-Capitalized Banks Direct Result of "Wonderful Chain of Stupidity" Mish has a great read that is summed up here, "The WSJ article notes 'There are 1,400 banks that own mortgage-backed securities that aren't backed by government-related entities such as Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac." What we don't know is how many of those banks are levered up enough in garbage mortgages to fail." Any questions about your banks that are so well capitalized or the really "solvent" FDIC that has to insure the accounts?
I called a near term top in XLF today (see post below) and mentioned I would be playing it as if it were the big drop just in case. Well leave it up to TD and Zerohedge to come up with this gem Financials Underperform As Flight To 30 Year "Quality" Becomes Sprint. "Notably, the index and single name put/call ratio has been ramping higher, indicating big players are starting to hedge aggressively against a material drop. However, this is certainly not the first time, and on most prior occassions this move ended up being a headfake. Then again, on prior occassions the market was never as massively overbought as it has become now." The headfake is what I am guarding against in my speculation one more pop is in order. They can't let the market fail PERIOD. When it goes, almost all wealth goes and anarchy in the streest will happen.
Folks, P3 is coming. It is getting closer day by day. The lies and manipulation can not continue indefinately. They will continue the pump and dump until the tournip has no more blood left. As noted here previously, the insider selling is at rediculous levels. Those in the know are hauling ass and you should be preparing to do the same - just not quite yet.
I'll have a Mortimer Duke, "SELL SELL" post in the am. The 60m SPX is ripe for a tumble and the daily looks to be wanting to turn (whipsaw intervention not guarnateed).
GL trading.
Monday, July 13, 2009
Let's Bang (on) Meredith
All pile on. Make it a gang bang. MW made a great call today and I believe she will be right on both counts. The up part is the easy call. How the fuck GS is gonna fall will be the miracle part. The only problem I have with her speaking this way is that she gave CNBS a shit pot load of green shoot fertilizer to spew from their mountain top that will be Crameresque (misleading) to the general public.
First I'll refer you to a meaningless and dry post from the WSJ covering her statements on CNBS today. In Analyst Meredith Whitney Bullish on Goldman you get, "However, Ms. Whitney said her bullish view of Goldman is rooted in her overall bearish outlook for the U.S. economy and other U.S. financial companies. During an interview on the financial network CNBC on Monday morning, she said the U.S. unemployment rate could reach 13% and remain elevated beyond 2010, and that most banks likely aren't prepared for prolonged joblessness at that level. The U.S. unemployment rate reached 9.5% in June. She said that bank stocks will be good buys in the short-term due to a robust mortgage business, but that the longer-term outlook for most banks was grim."
Fing brilliant! It is gonna go up and then down, so we are going to put a buy rating on GS. WTF is that all about? Well, dear readers I actually agree. We're talking about Government Sachs. The most insider oriented brokerage (oops - bank holding company) on the planet. She's right on the up first. How much fing money do you think GS made using our tax money in conjunction with their "supposed" market manipulation software? How have GS's earning been effected thru accounting manipulation allowing "specific" assets to be placed off balance sheets? How bout that "lost" quarter? She's exactly right. The government nor the fed will never cut off their right arm, not the company that supplies a vast majority of their higher placed employees.
Denninger takes some shots at MW in Merideth Whitney: The Internet NEVER SLEEPS. For once I have to agree to disagree with my buddy Karl. Karl is right in his argument, but he totally misses the point (as most P3ers do regularly and I did for the longest time as well). It is not time yet for the great collapse. The P3. The big crap. The monster fucking we'll all take when the market really shits on its self. "Our government's policy of looking the other way on blatant accounting farces through FASB changes, refusing to force banks to mark defaulted loans at the current market value of the underlying asset and outright handouts of taxpayer money through AIG as a conduit is outrageous, and worse, it guarantees that the economy will not and cannot recover as the debt still remains in the system!" . BINGO! Karl, you are right, BUT this bullshit manipulation has to work its way thru the trade. All things in good time Karl (buddy).
It took some time, but I have given into the fact that real TA nor EWT counts really work well at all right now. Fundamental analysis is dead. This fing market is running IMO on rotten analyst ratings, accounting scams and any other fing manipulative bullshit technique they can use to keep it afloat. Of course GS is gonna go up. You really freaking think they are gonna post a bad number or give weak guidance? I'll be surprised as hell if they do. In fact, you can draw and quarter me tomorrow at 9:00 if they do.
Ask yourself, who the hell is behind the depressed estimates and buy ratings? We've relieved ourselves, although inadvertintley, of the vast majority of the brokerages that were not part of the "club" and thus the gang can all get together to pump up the buy ratings and "take advantage" of this earnings trough. At the worst time in history when these holding companies need income in the worst way, you actually think they are going to do something that would not spurn a buying spree? Get real dude. They are in the business of pumping and pushing product. BUY AMERICA baby!
HA! Here is where the problem lies. They have dug their own hole and unintentionally will release the doom and gloom. Unless they come up with a "super buy" rating or for the KMart shoppers a "blue light special" on aisle 2, they can't pump these things up any more. I mean really, who the fuck is gonna put a buy rating on any freaking retailer (or insert any sector here _____) in the worst economic downturn since the great depression. Give me a fing break. Also, the banks manipulated BS earnings will collapse one day (sooner than later). IMO either this quarter or next will be the last before the shit hits the fan.
Folks it is all a bunch of bullshit and the house of cards will come crumbling down GUARANTEED here at Shanky's site. P3 will occur. The moronic and manipulated analysts will be eating crow. I'm sure most of you know my call from my Shanky's State Of the Charts Post. Option one is up then down. See, MW is just catching up with your buddy Shanky. She lags.
Both Karl and MW are right. Up then down. Even GS will crumble one day (not sure how, but it will). Just be patient P3ers and permabears. Be patient and don't bang on MW too hard.
First I'll refer you to a meaningless and dry post from the WSJ covering her statements on CNBS today. In Analyst Meredith Whitney Bullish on Goldman you get, "However, Ms. Whitney said her bullish view of Goldman is rooted in her overall bearish outlook for the U.S. economy and other U.S. financial companies. During an interview on the financial network CNBC on Monday morning, she said the U.S. unemployment rate could reach 13% and remain elevated beyond 2010, and that most banks likely aren't prepared for prolonged joblessness at that level. The U.S. unemployment rate reached 9.5% in June. She said that bank stocks will be good buys in the short-term due to a robust mortgage business, but that the longer-term outlook for most banks was grim."
Fing brilliant! It is gonna go up and then down, so we are going to put a buy rating on GS. WTF is that all about? Well, dear readers I actually agree. We're talking about Government Sachs. The most insider oriented brokerage (oops - bank holding company) on the planet. She's right on the up first. How much fing money do you think GS made using our tax money in conjunction with their "supposed" market manipulation software? How have GS's earning been effected thru accounting manipulation allowing "specific" assets to be placed off balance sheets? How bout that "lost" quarter? She's exactly right. The government nor the fed will never cut off their right arm, not the company that supplies a vast majority of their higher placed employees.
Denninger takes some shots at MW in Merideth Whitney: The Internet NEVER SLEEPS. For once I have to agree to disagree with my buddy Karl. Karl is right in his argument, but he totally misses the point (as most P3ers do regularly and I did for the longest time as well). It is not time yet for the great collapse. The P3. The big crap. The monster fucking we'll all take when the market really shits on its self. "Our government's policy of looking the other way on blatant accounting farces through FASB changes, refusing to force banks to mark defaulted loans at the current market value of the underlying asset and outright handouts of taxpayer money through AIG as a conduit is outrageous, and worse, it guarantees that the economy will not and cannot recover as the debt still remains in the system!" . BINGO! Karl, you are right, BUT this bullshit manipulation has to work its way thru the trade. All things in good time Karl (buddy).
It took some time, but I have given into the fact that real TA nor EWT counts really work well at all right now. Fundamental analysis is dead. This fing market is running IMO on rotten analyst ratings, accounting scams and any other fing manipulative bullshit technique they can use to keep it afloat. Of course GS is gonna go up. You really freaking think they are gonna post a bad number or give weak guidance? I'll be surprised as hell if they do. In fact, you can draw and quarter me tomorrow at 9:00 if they do.
Ask yourself, who the hell is behind the depressed estimates and buy ratings? We've relieved ourselves, although inadvertintley, of the vast majority of the brokerages that were not part of the "club" and thus the gang can all get together to pump up the buy ratings and "take advantage" of this earnings trough. At the worst time in history when these holding companies need income in the worst way, you actually think they are going to do something that would not spurn a buying spree? Get real dude. They are in the business of pumping and pushing product. BUY AMERICA baby!
HA! Here is where the problem lies. They have dug their own hole and unintentionally will release the doom and gloom. Unless they come up with a "super buy" rating or for the KMart shoppers a "blue light special" on aisle 2, they can't pump these things up any more. I mean really, who the fuck is gonna put a buy rating on any freaking retailer (or insert any sector here _____) in the worst economic downturn since the great depression. Give me a fing break. Also, the banks manipulated BS earnings will collapse one day (sooner than later). IMO either this quarter or next will be the last before the shit hits the fan.
Folks it is all a bunch of bullshit and the house of cards will come crumbling down GUARANTEED here at Shanky's site. P3 will occur. The moronic and manipulated analysts will be eating crow. I'm sure most of you know my call from my Shanky's State Of the Charts Post. Option one is up then down. See, MW is just catching up with your buddy Shanky. She lags.
Both Karl and MW are right. Up then down. Even GS will crumble one day (not sure how, but it will). Just be patient P3ers and permabears. Be patient and don't bang on MW too hard.
Friday, July 10, 2009
What Is Kneale Really Up To?
For those of you who do not follow The Market Ticker (who should have it in their daily reading), Karl Denninger is a witty down to earth brainiac that gives wonderfully truthful and intelligent easy to read analysis on a variety if issues effecting the market and your investments.
Denninger got involved with the whole moronic Dennis Keale v. bloggers discussion via a challenge he laid out to Dennis in Kneale: You Asked For It..... In this must read post for all P3 believers Karl discusses why the credit bubble has not popped and why the current recession is not over and will linger for a while. "Well Dennis, I don't think I should have to recite the last two+ years of numbers, nor the litany of new Fed Credit programs, nor the consumer credit numbers which were released today and which your network reported this afternoon, when you're the one claiming that "the recession is over" and argue against the credit recession position I put forward. But since you didn't bother with these nasty things called "facts", I'll do it for you."
Karl got invited to be on CNBS and discuss blogger identity issues. WTF? This worthless interview is really not worth the discussion or posting. However in Denninger's post Follow-Up To Dennis Kneale And CNBC, he offers a nice rebuttal that is really worth viewing (especially for the CNBS haters).
So, the questions continue from the blogosphere on CNBS's possible involvement in manipulating the market. Denninger lays out a wonderful refreshingly new argument that TD at ZeroHedge should dig a little deeper into (if Karl is not going to do so himself and ZH can get off of its GS tangent for a few posts). Front running I believe it is called. This is a new an different angle that if proven could wind up being as large as GS's "market manipulation" program issue (not in total volume, but in cheating via front running).
IMO everyone has to visit the john to puke after watching CNBS spew green shoot bullshit after an hour of so. I'm no genius, but I have enough common sense to know what is real and what is not. I personally have quit watching and now listen to a variety of things with Bloomberg Radio at the top of the list. What I want to ask is, what is Kneale's real purpose behind his attack of the blogs?
I called him a weasel for a good reason earlier. This BS attack blogger anonymity is a front for something IMO. Dennis may be a total idiot (as Karl calls him) when it comes to any sort of knowledge of the markets ("what is the VIX?), but he may be some sort of master at manipulating opinions or herding the sheeple in a specific direction. Look at who he works for.
It is a widely known fact that the blogs are destroying the major media, especially the print group. Attacks against blogs are becoming more prevalent for various reasons from content hijacking via linking to articles to bloggers being "non professionals" blogging on stuff they have no place writing about.
So just what is DK up to here? Is it simply name recognition or to increase viewership to his lame show or is their something more to this? Just what is this weasel up to? I do not trust him or his network and would not be posting on this issue if I did not have the opinion that the front man for GE is on a mission assigned by his taskmasters to do something to discredit the blogosphere.
The list is long of blogs that consistently challenge and disprove the bullshit that CNBS spews (well, the 60% IMO that is not truth). I would not be surprised to find that the blogosphere's attacks of CNBS have cost them viewership and shifted viewers to other sources (well, the content has something to do with the shifting of viewers as well I'm sure). Is CNBS using DK in some sort of offensive in a larger plan to weaken the web and its freedoms to further attack our Constitutional right to free speach so they can further dominate and protect their turf?
A note to Karl and the other bloggers that may get sucked into these worthless discussions - Watch out for the Weasel.
Denninger got involved with the whole moronic Dennis Keale v. bloggers discussion via a challenge he laid out to Dennis in Kneale: You Asked For It..... In this must read post for all P3 believers Karl discusses why the credit bubble has not popped and why the current recession is not over and will linger for a while. "Well Dennis, I don't think I should have to recite the last two+ years of numbers, nor the litany of new Fed Credit programs, nor the consumer credit numbers which were released today and which your network reported this afternoon, when you're the one claiming that "the recession is over" and argue against the credit recession position I put forward. But since you didn't bother with these nasty things called "facts", I'll do it for you."
Karl got invited to be on CNBS and discuss blogger identity issues. WTF? This worthless interview is really not worth the discussion or posting. However in Denninger's post Follow-Up To Dennis Kneale And CNBC, he offers a nice rebuttal that is really worth viewing (especially for the CNBS haters).
So, the questions continue from the blogosphere on CNBS's possible involvement in manipulating the market. Denninger lays out a wonderful refreshingly new argument that TD at ZeroHedge should dig a little deeper into (if Karl is not going to do so himself and ZH can get off of its GS tangent for a few posts). Front running I believe it is called. This is a new an different angle that if proven could wind up being as large as GS's "market manipulation" program issue (not in total volume, but in cheating via front running).
IMO everyone has to visit the john to puke after watching CNBS spew green shoot bullshit after an hour of so. I'm no genius, but I have enough common sense to know what is real and what is not. I personally have quit watching and now listen to a variety of things with Bloomberg Radio at the top of the list. What I want to ask is, what is Kneale's real purpose behind his attack of the blogs?
I called him a weasel for a good reason earlier. This BS attack blogger anonymity is a front for something IMO. Dennis may be a total idiot (as Karl calls him) when it comes to any sort of knowledge of the markets ("what is the VIX?), but he may be some sort of master at manipulating opinions or herding the sheeple in a specific direction. Look at who he works for.
It is a widely known fact that the blogs are destroying the major media, especially the print group. Attacks against blogs are becoming more prevalent for various reasons from content hijacking via linking to articles to bloggers being "non professionals" blogging on stuff they have no place writing about.
So just what is DK up to here? Is it simply name recognition or to increase viewership to his lame show or is their something more to this? Just what is this weasel up to? I do not trust him or his network and would not be posting on this issue if I did not have the opinion that the front man for GE is on a mission assigned by his taskmasters to do something to discredit the blogosphere.
The list is long of blogs that consistently challenge and disprove the bullshit that CNBS spews (well, the 60% IMO that is not truth). I would not be surprised to find that the blogosphere's attacks of CNBS have cost them viewership and shifted viewers to other sources (well, the content has something to do with the shifting of viewers as well I'm sure). Is CNBS using DK in some sort of offensive in a larger plan to weaken the web and its freedoms to further attack our Constitutional right to free speach so they can further dominate and protect their turf?
A note to Karl and the other bloggers that may get sucked into these worthless discussions - Watch out for the Weasel.
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