Commodities Charting Extravaganza! Gold, Silver, Oil, Gas Wheat, Corn and Many More

Bottom line, you need to know what is driving cost at the store and where those prices are likely headed. What's expensive and what's not? Look below to find out. (Oil, Gold and Silver are at the bottom)


Cocoa - So, why am I still like paying a gazillions dollars for my Snickers fix?

Cotton -

Charting Light Sweet Crude and The Coming War

I thought with the recent surge in stock prices why not take a look at the correlated move in oil moving over $103? I guess the threat of war is a catalyst across all sectors. You know, one tide raises all ships kind of thing. Maybe the world's debt and credit issues worsening are the reasons for the market's advance today (that is a topic for another post).

I would not be doing this if oil was not at a technical point that did not matter (more on this below). I'm pretty sure none of this matters with the Iran situation following the Libya disruption, but you need to see what's happening in the charts.

Adding to the "why do this post when technically nothing matters" theme, I believe that oil has become one of the most manipulated commodities on the planet making millions for the likes of JPM, GS and the oil conglomerates. Bottom line is (thinking realistically and with some sort of common sense) it makes no sense with the global economic slowdown and consumption that oil is priced anywhere near these levels. Peak oil fears? That is an argument for another post.

Sunday Guest Post - Incarnate and the 13/34, RUT, TNA, TZA

STB has entrusted a guest post to Incadamus for the first time - Let's hope this works out. STB 3.0 is slated to allow used generated content. Let's look at this as a trial run.

Welcome to Incarnate's world!

I have been wondering what timeframe I should use for my 401k.  I can only buy or sell at whatever the market closes at, like many others.  Also, there are those that would like to not babysit the market and come up with a good strategy to enter/exit trades.

So I thought to myself, hmm.. let’s try the 60 minute 13/34 EMA cross and see what would have happened from 1/1 – 9/9 of this year (damn charts kept moving so I picked that day as my cutoff for no particular reason).

I had two main questions:

1.       Is the decay on the leveraged ETFs really that bad??  Will I lose money if I buy and hang on?

2.       Is the 60m chart really the answer? 

As many on here know, I trade the 15m 13/34 EMA and have recently even switched to the 10m to try to capitalize even more gains.  I have had huge success for both even faced with the occasional whipsaw.  My original plan was to track a 15 minute chart back to the first of the year, but guess what?  Stockcharts.com does not hold the information back that far.  I think it was 30 days for the 15 minute chart and 20 for the 10 minute chart.  Also I came to learn that you can only add so many annotations to a chart and cannot add more than six total charts on one page, thus the two charts for each quarter.

I will say this about the prices on the stockcharts..  I estimated where it crossed as I did not have the time (trust me it took long enough as it was) to open a single day chart and see exactly where it would cross.  I got the spotting tool (crosshairs) to see where it crossed.  It is not exact, but very close.

Morning Post 09/20/11, SPX, AAPL

Well, Looks like my warnings Friday about the market 's reaction prior to the FOMC data tomorrow (it was dangerous to short even though Friday 's close was a very tempting set up) was spot on. How can you short into the Fed with their constant risk on positioning and eternal promise of QE? It is insanity.

All eyes everywhere. The EU is in deep shit. No denying that. The biggest news was not the S&P downgrade of Italy and the Euro. Nor was it China's backstabbing of the EU. It was Siemens dumping their French bank and depositing funds directly with the ECB. After all of that one would likely conclude easily a 250 point down DOW day - nope.

If any of you understand this welfare video, please explain it to me. I swipe my EBT. Yes, America is reduced to this, free junk food. Hey, whatever makes the system work and supports corporations - it's allll goooood.

STB Morning Post 09/16/11, SPX

It's Friday! Lawdy it has been one heck of a week for the bulltards. I have no idea if this opex, bailout, manipulated BS run is over or not. I do know that the domestic economy is worsening and that the EU (and MENA) are in shambles. All this will end in some sort of horrific scenario. Till then we operate on hopium and playing the game of extend and pretend.

STB has been walking you thru the progression of the short term charts diverging and looking to turn. What STB has been pointing to is that the 30, 60 and daily charts were not near ready to go yet. The markets confirmed this. STB has tried to walk you thru the progression of timing, and how to appropriately work the turns (my way, more conservatively trying to find higher probability using divergences).

Now we have the 30m chart most likely confirming some sort of corrective here. This works well with the market ending opex here and the EU liquidity high about to wear off a bit. That said, this is a news driven market and it does not take much to get a violent immediate reaction in either direction. Speaking of news events, next week is the FOMC meeting. The hope of a QE announcement (a bit late for the now defunct Goldman's Alpha team) may be enough to maintain elevation.

FOMC Meeting Chart - See the previous reactions to FPMC meetings below.

Afternoon Delight - SPX

Ramp me up Scottie!

60m chart is not quite there but where it could turn. That said, the daily chart has plenty of room to run. Without a whipsaw 30m should get a MACD and TRIX bear cross in the morning. Based on the daily position this would offer no more than a corrective, but in these volatile markets (the 15m charts were the best signal for the last 4 turns) you can't trust anything. Given the jobs report and Philly Fed report this morning basically noting what an economic disaster area this nation is, nothing matters other than news (does not even have to be factual - just a rumor will do) from the euro zone at this time.

SPX 30m -

STB Morning Post 09/15/11 SPX

Not much to say this morning without rehashing the obvious, Europe in in deep trouble, America is in deep trouble and the financial system supporting it all is in even worse trouble. AS STB began to point to a few months back around the first Debt Ceiling debate in July, I believe the financial masters of the universe are finally seeing the light and may actually be tired of throwing good (well what's left of good) money after bad just to save the banks.

STB speculated that until the US debt ceiling is raised significantly and the Fed enters QE land again the euro zone would be on its own. Well, they have proven that without stealth funding from sugar daddy Bernanke they are capable of .... nothing. They can't fix the issues alone. China or the Swiss pop in for a EUR stick save every now and then, but bottom line is the EU is screwed. No, this is not Germany's fault. the former Wiemar state is proving that at least one country on this planet may have actually learned from its mistakes in the past and is not willing to repeat them.

STB Morning Post 09/14/11

I can't pull it out exactly when, but I remember a period this year when the DOW minis fell over 100 points 5 out of 7 nights and wanted to crash just like the last three nights and the markets subsequently rallied out of that set up. The euro zone is driving the minis down overnight and they are rallying to "hide" the underlying weakness by the open. I'm not sure why the markets have had two green days, but they have.

I don't know how the markets can be sure of anything given the underlying issues globally and here in the US. What we have learned here at STB is that what is isn't. You can't get caught up in what "should be". The markets are totally controlled. As stated here many times the markets are all they have between them and a revolution in this country. The pension system is underfunded and on the verge of collapsing. It can not afford another "dip" in the markets as asset values give the impression (or illusion as STB likes to call it) all is well.

TYP 60m Wedging Into Support?

Here is a Think or Swim 60m chart of TYP Direvion Technology Bear 3x Shares (or in English - triple short tech bear ETF). First I will say these things are notoriously dangerous and will rip holes in your portfolio where money will pour not leak out if you are not careful with them. Always have a plan for each trade and always use stops.

Black diagonals are either an ugly channel or a large rising wedge.
There is a gap from 18 to 18.64 that needs to be noted.
Note the blue falling wedge.
Red horizontal support at 21.57.

At this time it looks like the blue wedge is in play, but the black formation was there first and may be the driver here. If so, look for first support at the black support diagonal near 22.22. If that goes you have to consider the blue wedge as the driver now and any move thru the red support line at 21.57 should result in a test of the lower blue support at or near the 20.20 area.

STB Morning Post 09/13/11

Not much to say other than China saved the day yesterday (again). It seems that you can always count on intervention of some sort to save the day (till you can't). Bottom line is they will continue to stick save till they can't. As noted on STB a few months back, it appears that the power brokers in governments around the world are tired of bailing out the banks.

The bankers have bled the system and their puppet politicians as much as possible (times two). The governmental representatives have gained nothing politically as their voter base has become increasingly dissatisfied with their performance. On the other hand, you would assume that the money flowing into their coffers from these special interests is coming in at an astounding rate. Quite the trade off, sacrifice your country and political career while you go for the big cash grab. How American!

I think they are thru throwing good money after bad. I think the politicians are actually beginning to see the light. After throwing a DISCLOSED $4 trillion at the problem (not the actual $30 trillion it took to bail out the world) and getting nothing out of it, maybe, just maybe they are growing a set large enough to take on the banks and the default issues that are coming.

I hope you all like the new look old blog. STB.com is still down and I am actually considering staying here at this point till the new blog is up and running. Comments and suggestions are always welcome. What you like and don't like I need to know so it can be incorporated into the new blog. Don't tell me after the fact, you need to tell me now.

Minis this morning have made quite the recovery (not sure who came in with the big stick (or wantons filled with dollars as sellputs put it yesterday). All it takes is a rumor to move the DOW 100 points either way in minutes. Thus, this is a dangerous playground to bring your ball to. Remember to have a trading plan for each trade and to always use stops.

Minis - yellow channel support being backtested. the blue triangle backtest is just above. 1161 (price at now) is first resistance and then 1178. Those can get run thru with the right "solution" today. Inversely 1123 is the magic number for severe downside action continuation. Bottom line is the markets are consolidating at these levels and remain range bound. Note - I adjusted the channel a bit this morning to what should be a more accurate representation of the channel capturing the last low at 1138 - where it was below the support diagonal yesterday. This is an allowable thing to do and is sometimes necessary when working with charts. STB always reviews his trendline positions and if adjustments are necessary, then I make them (and you should as well).

Quick Look At UNG

UPDATE - CRUSHED - ouchie. See my first sentence.$3.81 is the 61.8% retracement for /NG. It has entered what I like to call the "retracement zone - the area between the 50 and 62% retracement levels. You UNG lovers may have to wait another month. Not sure where it can get a bid. I guided you to the $4.24 level. Now let's let this thing settle and regroup.

I am not recommending anything before the call. If you do try a long I highly suggest tight stops. You know I do not like the future of NG and where I think the price is going (3.25 to $2.40), but I am anticipating a possible NT oversold pop. I have lowered my target for UNG from $9.50 to the gap at 9.

Be very careful, we have like a billion year supply on NG and many other factors (uh, like a weak economy) do not bode well for the future on NG right now. This is a nasty chart, but I caution it can get worse. If it pops I'll get on board with a pretty tight trailing stop.

UNG - Dead Cat Bounce Or Worse?

I ususally avoid the politics and some of the more detailed nuances surrounding the UNG trade for good reasons. 1) The forward contracts for UNG that drive price movements, and if a contango scenario exists that can not be overcome nothing good will come of it (see chart below) 2) Politics are brutal and the manipulation of pricing is possible and unfair (based on the stronger pull in Washington). 3) Supply/Demand reality versus fictional truths. 4) There is so much Natgas in the earth scarcity will never be an issue thus keeping prices low.

Here is the most recent Weekly Update from EIA. If you believe the EIA numbers (I don't), you can find all the governments info on Natgas HERE. I also suggest that you learn more about UNG HERE, cause you need to understand the nuances of the ETF before you invest. I think the "roll dates" are very important, and you can learn more about them HERE. My favorite disclaimer from the site, " These risks could result in large fluctuations in the price of UNG’s units. An investor could lose all or substantially all of his/her investment." I think those unfortunate ones that bout it in the $60's agree with that statement.

I know one thing, I believe that Natgas is a large part of America's energy independence and can provide a more earth friendly option to the other two in many cases. Sadly big oil and coal are not ready to allow the new comer into the game. A post by Madhedgefundtrader on Zero Hedge Coal Lobbyists Are Taking a Hatchet to the Natural Gas Industry drives some of these point home. "Their mission is to render toothless Cap & Trade legislation, block subsidies for natural gas which both parties seem to agree on, dilute environmental legislation, and promote the myth that the whole global warming thing is nothing more than a leftist hoax, thus keeping hands off King Coal."

So you have Natgas fighting an uphill battle on multiple fronts. I think that price proves these points. I do not see demand growing for Natgas in the near future. If anything I see if being flat to down based purely on my economic assumption that things are gonna stink for a long time as this depression draws out or enters what I think will be a double dip. I have read forecasts that see the price of Natgas going back to test the $2.40 lowas seen last August (UNG IS dead cat bouncing - /NG has a long way to go yet).




Looking at a chart comparing Natgas and Oil - Natgas re-entered the LT channel up after the drastic fall and is now backtesting the lower channel line. Will it find support here or will it revisit the $2.62 level? The indicators on this monthly chart don't look healthy. RSI is trending down. MACD hist is flat. S Sto and CCI appear to be rolling over as well. Yes, there could be some more pop in this corrective according to the charts, but I don't see it. The main thing you need to notice is the LT relationship to the price of oil. Will that correct and how will it correct? I think oil is coming down to meet NG.  





Comparing Natgas to UNG this chart shows another glaring gap. OK, so what happened to UNG as compared to Oil and Natgas. Why the heck did it not rise like it was supposed to with the other two? Shouldn't it catch up? Well you see there was a massive contango issue. The spot price was near $2 and the Futures were near $5 and, kapow, UNG got hosed. Equilibrium did not make it that month. The spot price only got up to near $3 and that was all she wrote. Now it trades in backwardation where the futures are less than the spot now. No, it should not catch up theoretically. Give UNG a call and speak to an analyst if you like. They are there to help if you need it.

So, what technically does UNG have in store? Here is a daily chart of UNG. Double bottom, check! Falling wedge, check! At a NT support line, check! Indicators on the 30 and 60m with divergences, check! Daily indicators oversold, check! That is a lot of checks! I see near term oversold conditions that should lead to a pop, but not a big one. $9.50 max at this time is all I am willing to go. I also expect more downside. See the box with the ? in it? I first introduced that box in my UNG Popping post back on December 17th (I'll be adjusting it after this post). In that post I also gave you the "watch for hist to turn" note on the MACD hist as a good topping point. Not bad if you ask me. I suggest you look at my weekly UNG chart here and take a good look at the 20ma ($9.74 now) that has been acting like a lid on price. So, after we get some sort of correction that should begin in the next week or so, look for more weakness.


Sorry, but my bearish stance on UNG continues (and it will remain for probably another year if not longer - barring inflation). Bottom line is over supply and horrible economic conditions should dominate the market for the foreseeable future. Don't be fooled by short term pops in the economy. Sure NG may get a pop from all the heating going on in the NE right now, but with 30% usage from consumers and the other 70% from manufacturing and production do you think it will be meaningful? Winter is ending. They have shut down extraction facilities and supply is still near capacity. When the economy truly begins to recover (LOL, my regular readers know how I feel about that) so will UNG. Those hoping for a 6 handle on UNG again can fhugeddaboutit unless we have a hyperinflationary situation that drives commodities thru the roof (I give this a good probability down the road). Those looking for a NT pop, be patient it will come soon. $9.50 target.

Watch the 60m chart and look for price to crack the 20ma and for the RSI's to crack the downtrend lines. I'd also look for some sort of reversal candle on the daily chart. Keep those stops tight and let the trade come to you.

GL!

Morning Post

Snow day for Shanky here in South Georgis. Waiting on 4-6" of some pow-pow to show up on my doorstep. I'll believe it when I see it. What's the forecast for Vancouver today? I feel sorry for those people up there, but still looking forward to the winter Olympics and Daytona this weekend.

China has raised rates again. The big news that pissed me off this am is that Toyota hired  regulators to help hault investigations. The corruption is rampant. They care more about corporate health and profits than our own well being. You would think they are getting better and might be learning something from all this mess. Apparently they don't give a flip about our well being. Money talks.

Markets are at a precarious spot. The EWT folks are looking for another sharp move south very soon to save their most recent counts. They may get it as the markets try to hold upper resistance lines with the futures down. The mixed indicators have some (especially me) feeling a little leery about forecasting any specific direction at this time. The 60m overbought, the dailys have been bottoming for sometime and the weeklys are still headed south. I tend to lean to what the dailys have going on for true direction.

SPX daily - Which TL will be the upper resistance for the next turn? Trying to crack the dashed red TL now that has been proven resistance. On the other hand the blue TL below has been proven support. A break either way could be significant. Looking at the indicators the RSI 5 cracked it's downtrend line. Every other indicator is oversold and ready to turn. My old reliable S Sto has a bull cross. On the other hand the 60m is overbought and the weeklys are still headed south. Barring some reversal in the dailys forcing them to embed and even given the bearish action in the futures, I am going to lean to some more upside before any major turn south (which is coming). Maybe this move at the open today cures the 30/60m problem or they become embedded overbought. I'd call it somewhere in the 2 wave and not in 3 yet.1 is over. Possibly some more choppy consolidation. The BBs are still way to wide for any super volatile moves. 1103 max upside at this time. The bears party will just have to wait I guess. IF I AM WRONG (and since I decided to make a bold call against the grain) I'd say recent support at 1044 and the green bear market TL will be in play pretty quickly.

Have a great weekend. I'll be rooting for the old man in the #5 car as always at Daytona (I like the 38 as well). GL!

Morning Post

National signing day! OK, I am a college football fan of massive proportions. You should be as well. Good luck to your team today. The SEC dominates again with 4 of the top 5 classes. More on this after the bell.

PFE totally got it backwards. Make the revenues and miss the number is not the way to do it these days. What in the world does revenue have to do with anything? I hate tend busters.

Earnings calendar - Most of the market movers are thru now. CSCO after the bell today.

Economic calendar - EIA Petroleum report at 10:30. Timmaah speaks somewhere today I think. ADP is out and we have fewer jobs. The BLS fictional report comes out tomorrow.

Minis are down slightly. May have completed A wave of the correction. Bumped it's head on an upper TL yesterday late. I'm speculating on a slight pullback before more strength. Possibly 1080 area or at least a sideways consolidation before moving on up.

SPX daily - All the 10-60m charts are ready to turn south or are topping as the daily is just really now getting geared up for a move north. Thus, I think we are in the B wave of the 2nd wave corrective. This will provide a risky short play (cause it could just consolidate here and move sideways) before further strength. I have a max low of 1087 and max high in the 1115 to 1120 range. Lots of green circles on that chart below. Be patient. The orange dashed line is a possible path.

Oil - As prognosticated, the rise is on. Petrol report has to say at 10:30. 60m headed south, so I may wait to add when that turns.
Dollar - After trending down for 3 days, something happened at 4:00 this morning that caused it to reverse up pretty hard. Sorry, do not know what that was at this time. Must be Greece.
Natgas - I updated the UNG section last night. It does not look good. Should turn south soon. 
Gold - At a upper downtrend line that should cause some resistance up, but the dailys indicate more strength after this pullback. Possible breakout setup? Hmmm...

GL out there. Down slightly then up. How much up is the big question. I'd hate to see the EWTres eat another top call.

Morning Post

Good morning. I hope you had a good weekend. Getting this week cranked up early with the futures up over 6 points on the minis. After Fridays sell off and given the overbought conditions, the buyers had to show up sooner or later. Question is, how long will they hang around? Friday's dramatic reversal was a sign of things to come as I believe you have to begin viewing the market as having more downside potential/risk than upside as the tide has most likely turned.

Earnings calendar -Tomorrow is a bigger day as we get into the energy sector.

Economic calendar - Mfg index and construction spending today along with a treasury auction (3 and 6mo)

SPX daily - Remember, the market does not "have to" do anything, looks can be deceiving and beauty is only skin deep. SPX has completed a 61.8% retracement of the rise off of 1028. S Sto is embedding, RSI is at 33.3, The gap on MACD is huge (8pts) and the hist has not turned, ADX is doing it's best Letterman impersonation showing a huge gap, and other indicators are showing similar characteristics. The lower BB is getting abused again. At this time I believe a correction is overdue and downside should be limited simply because of oversold conditions and some divergences on shorter time frames. 1055 is my max downside at this time and if it turns I'm looking at 1101 as the first target and then the gap at 1115. I do not see it moving over the 1131 level at all, but with this market you never know.

Gold - 1066 level has all kinds of support. I do not think this is the time to jump in even though it is pretty oversold.
Dollar - Continues strengthening. Over $5 move in DXY since 11/23 (7%). It is getting overbought but might have a little room to run yet.
Oil -  Sitting on support and the 23.6% retracement (I'll give you charts on all these tomorrow) and it is oversold. This one may warrant some buying attention at this level.
Natgas - Broke TL and support and is channeling down with a short series of lower lows and lower highs. 4.67 is the 38% retracement. It is at 5.13 now.
EUR/JPY -  124.37 is the next support point (and that is a weak one). When it took out 126 that should have been it. Channeling south. Support has now become resistance.
EUR/USD - 139.17 below the 140 Mendoza line. 138 to 135 is the 50 to 61% retracement zone. 136 is where C=A is this is a corrective. If it is a major wave we're in a 3 south.

GL out there!

Look Into The Futures

OK, a minor explosion that will really piss off all those looking for a fall on Monday at the open. the minis (and everything else) seem to be going ape for some reason. Marketwatch reports, "Gold futures climbed by as much as $24 an ounce in electronic trade Monday morning in Asia to touch their strongest intraday level in more than a month, as a further weakness U.S. dollar and strong trade figures from China lured investors." For a deeper look into the China numbers Zero Hedge reports - China's 2009 Trade Surplus Falls A Record $100 Billion 


The e-minis are showing a classic throwover on a strong move to the 1148 area. You all know I have been pointing to 1214 SPX for some time, but now I am beginning to question if the 1350 pundits are right. To be honest, this market will go where they want it to. Looking at the possible count on the minis, this could be a 3 of 3, really. 


The Green wedge is experiencing throwover (or breakout). the yellow divergence line on RSI is toast and the new lower blue support line may have to burst before any further downside can be expected. This means that the divergence that everyone was looking for to set the top may have been a head fake. 

Looking at /YG gold futures breakout. It is quite clear. After putting in a good retracement and getting the gold 950 talk going good, the headfake may be on. this one may be worth watching. 

So they say the dollar is getting crushed. Let's take a look. I would say so. Now, will the correlation return?

And is oil reacting? Yeah, I would say the C store owners will be all giddy about being able to raise the price of petrol on Monday morning. 

And what about NATGAS? Wonder if that cold snap is affecting supply (more than the shutting down of the production)? Ooops, that would be a 10% price plummet since Friday's high with a nice gap down over the weekend. Go figure. 

See ya in the am. Now get some sleep.

A Chart

I first used this chart in a prophetic post prognosticating the continued levitation of the SPX. Now, I am using it to forecast a fall. The question begs, how big a fall? Will it cycle to a slightly higher low near 1050 or will it take a bigger bite into March and actually mark a lower low indicating bigger falls to come? Could higher highs be in order? I will go to 1214 but no higher. The 1300+ calls are on drugs, and those people need to be institutionalized and then incarcerated for misleading the public. 

I'm struggling to see much more upside here given the divergences and overbought indicators (not to mention many other issues like record P/E and the SPXA50 over 400 again). This market has been full of manipulated surprises that have destroyed many a TA forecast. Can it continue? Sure it can, but I'm voting for a turn here soon. I'm looking for one more minor corrective before a larger fall later in the year. The manipulators are not going to let go and historical market forces can not take it away from them.

With the MACD hist continually trending lower and the RSI and MCAD having nice divergences to price one would expect a turn here very soon. In Opex And Cycles (And More Possible Upside)  I prognosticated thru trending that the market would levitate based on prior actions after the recent cycle lows. I was fortunate to be right. Now I am using the same chart, but looking for a turn. 1080 to 1050is what I am looking for. I will be more precise if and when it occurs. Look for the divergence on the CCI to set and then short away. We're close.

I'd also like to point out Four Possible Solar Play I gave back on November 2nd. At least I called one 1 bagger - not bad over all if you ask me. I chart the sector in my chartbook. I like to follow it and the swings are dramatic. There may be some good short ops here soon. (actually - I am quite tickled with the results of this call. Not bad for two months work.)

FSLR - 123 to 142 + 15,5%
SOLF - 4.66 to 10.08 + 116%
TAN - 8.46 to 11.28 + 33%
WFR - 12.50 to 15.02 + 20%

See you Monday. GL!

SPX Now

OK, let me add this. The SPX according to my TOS chart is sitting right at the top of it's upper P2 (bull market) trendline. It may take me a while to get to find some rhythm, but I will get my mojo back!

The Dollar and The SPX

Rorschach Failed post (revisited)

If the SPX lets go like it should ......

Black Gold, Texas Tea - (Oil That Is)

I thought I would sling out a $WTIC chart of light sweet crude for you to see. Why? I think it could be nearing a turning point and you may want to run out and fill up the SUV first. Save some cash before Xmas. Call it my present to you. (that is of course if the price of gas ever adjusts down appropriately)

$WTIC daily - Is it the blue channel support or the pink dashed TL or is it a backtest of the last triangle top TL? The stopping forces now are the completed 62% retracement, the blownout lower BB, the RSI5 bottoming out and the pink LT TL being met. The downward move still has some legs if you look at the lacking divergence in RSI and that it has some room to fall still. S Sto and CCI still have some room to run as well.

Bottom line is that it looks like oil will be bottoming soon. The big question is what is to come? Is this the long lost 5th wave up? Will it be the first corrective of a larger fall? I think oil has topped or has limited upside from here (barring a war). I am still drawn to the lower black TL as a target. I just like where it breaches the gray box/retracement zone. That may be a bit much to ask now, but if we should have some difficult economic news (LOL - that was a joke - who would expect any bad economic news?), who knows? GL out there!