Morning Post, E-mini, SPX, S&P500

Good morning from the sunny Florida panhandle. The 4 day beard has become a lucky trading goatee. Masters week is upon us as well. Surf is up but the futures are down. I'm gonna show you an interesting trend in the minis below so pay attention.

Pivot Points - Know 'em

Economic Calendar - Petrol at 10:30, Helicopter Ben at 1:30, Hoenig at 2:00 and consumer credit at 3:00. All could move the markets.

The push for 11,000 and 1,200 is still on. The RUT, Q's and Trans have made their goals I believe. SPX 1200 and DOW 11,000 are a breath away. Not sure if WLSH wants 12,500 or not. Sho looks like this run is running out of room for now. We all should know this market is running on fumes and the trannie (government/Fed funding) will give out eventually.

E-minis - What I want you to notice is the trend of them driving the futures up during the day and driving them down overnight when everyone is asleep. Follow the MACD and RSI below. Here we are again, gap down with oversold indicators on the futures. They create the gap down that the market wants to fill and then that momo continues to an indicator peak during the day. Rinse, repeat. That pink support line has a little crack. If the green line goes I believe something more dramatic is in store.

SPX weekly - I have been bringing you this same chart since last October. That is now 7 months or so I have been cautioning about further upside. The pattern is nearing an end. I do not see any further upside above a possible throwover of the wedge. The weeklys can climb a bit yet, but they have remained overbought since May of last year in my opinion. At this time I think 950 is a good target when it finally lets go (yes, I do think we eventually set new lows).

SPX Daily - The upper BB is pushing price into the support line. Unless some sort of dramatic surge up in the BB something has to give (I think it will be the support line). BB width is under 70 which is narrow and should cause some volatility.

GL out there. It is a tough game especially playing against a stacked deck. I'm looking for a major news event to set off this next fall which should mark the top. I'll do oil, dollar, natgas, gold and EUR post later. Sorry I have not been reporting on these like usual.

Morning Post

Christmas week and with me skiing in Colorado next week there is no telling what you will get from me between now and the end of the year. If something happens, I'll be here. If not, I'll be enjoying the holidays. You should too! We got Xmas kicked off early and the kids got some big presents from the family - GUNS! That's right, 28 gauge single shot shotguns. (My boys are 7 and 9). We shot all weekend and should be able to have them ready to defend the southern border of the homestead by mid summer if necessary.

 
 
The dollar is channeling, but is RSI on the daily chart getting tired? No divergence yet. I know gaps show up all over the place on a daily chart of the dollar and are not that noteable, but this one back on 9/4 was to me and it is just about closed.

A closer look at the dollar's channel on a 60m chart. 

SPX last year at this time. Traded is a 100pt range for most of December till that late pop, but notice how it just fell back into the trading range for most of January, before it let go. I really hate thost that look at stuff and say "It did this then so it may/should do this now". That was a bear market and this is a bull market. Quickly eyeballing January over the last 10 years, it tends to be a down to flat month.


I'll look at more stuff later if necessary. Gold daily appears to be getting support from it's 50ma. Oil is in an uptrend. Natgas breakout is in pause mode right now with RSI sitting near a spot where past price reversals have happened. EUR/JPY is near support and just above a 50% retracement level. EUR/USD is at a LT support level and just above the 38% retracement level at 1.4121.

That is all for now. Go get your shopping done and have a cocktail or two. Enjoy the season and remember the reason for the season.

GL and happy holidays.

The Dollar and The SPX

Rorschach Failed post (revisited)

If the SPX lets go like it should ......

Morning Post

Opex anyone? Well, thank goodness I got to go another day without having to adjust the upper fibs on a whole bunch of charts. Today could be interesting.

Let's start with an overview of the broad indexes. Notice the congestion. RUT almost caught up. There is resistance.

Now lets compare some major players. SPX (red) still laggin all the others in the correction. Gold and the dollar have made the biggest moves. Oil is bucking the trend. TNX looks to be taking a little breather.

So what happens today? Well I'm not going to speculate on a triple witching Opex but the charts say -

15m SPX - not looking at it for anything other than the chart. Stopped at gap fill on the nose. Completed a 61.8% retracement of the last move. Trading is obviously range bound from 1116 to 1087.

SPX 60m - Interesting spot for a spot to stop. With futures up here and the indicators on the 60m favoring a bottom if you are ST short I would proceed with caution.

SPX daily - Looks pretty bearish here for the over all trend right now. The RSI sitting on the 50 line bothers me as a bear. The divergences continue to grow and amazingly the market has not let go. You see all the support listed in the chart.

Oil - Middle east tensions? No kidding. Oil futures 1m - There is the pop oil got from the news.

Oil daily - As reported here - oil held the lower channel TL. Let's see what it does when it backtests the gray channel.

Triple opex and middle east troubles (not to mention the daily barrage of wonderful news) leads me to want to sit and watch today. As for a count - I have no idea. I'm seeing thenm leading up to 1135 (I have it as high as 1214 possibly) and some going straight down. When 1119 or 1087 break, I'll then get interested.

GL, have a great weekend and happy holidays.

Morning Post

And the jobs report says - worse, and not surprisingly CNBS is struggling to find a positive angle on the subject. Why not report it as it is - BAD! It is friggin BAD. Just say it. This spin BS from Liesman and the others has to stop.The CITI deal sucked. That is a BIG RED FLAG.

The dollar spiked nicely last night as the breakout continues. There is a big gap that will be closed at 78.02 on the daily chart from 09/04. there is now firm support at the 75.80 range.

The EUR/USD continues its plunge as expected. It has fallen to the $1.43 support level and may take a breather here. If not the 38% retracement is $1.41.

Gold's brief recovery may be over for now as it has net the upper channel line and has reversed. The $1088 level support might hold and if not the 38% retracement at $1066 would be the next most logical spot.

 



Oil's recovery (as advertised here) appers to have hit a ST ceiling after a nice run. There is a channel down (not shown here) forming over the last week or so. My question, is this a backtest of the larger gray channel and more downside is to come or is this just the start of something better as the daily indicators say.

The other day I quietly and politely made a e-mini 1096 call. So far they are pausing at 1095.75. Can it get worse? Well, going against some of the grain and counts, I have been decidedly bearish (since the boom, boom, boom chart I posted on Sunday). So we get a little boom action this am. I'm not saying this is something major. I posted the daily chart so you can see pretty clearly all the action. Mainly notice all the support at the 185 level. As for a count? This may be a 1 of a 3 down. I am not willing to go for anything under 1085 quite yet. If we take out 1085 I will be one short sum beech. There is not much to stop it under that. You go straight to 1064 and then to 1030. I expect the PPT to put up a good fight (unless they used all their funds buying up CITI and Wells offerings - DOPE!)



Natgas is topping I think - It is at resistance at least and struggling to get any higher. The turbo boost it got this week from the XOM deal may need to be corrected some.

GL out there and happy holidays.

Morning Post

Fed day today. Ya think they are gonna surprise and raise rates? I doubt it. With 1mo treasuries yielding zero and the equity markets the only play in town where any money can be made, why screw up a good thing? (ghood thing for whom can be debated) They will have to raise them eventually, but I'm not going to hold my breath. CPI and housing numbers are being spun on CNBS. So are you in the deflation of inflation camp? I think we deflate first with some signs of specific pricing pressures that eventually leads to inflation. Its like having a bad tooth that you know needs to be extracted, but you don't want to face the surgery. You deal with the pain and deal with the pain, yet eventually you will have to go under the knife.

SPX daily- I just do not know what it will take to get this market out of this trading range. BB width is 29. That is under 30 folks. That is 15 up or 15 down is all you are theoretically gonna get. Narrow BB's usually lead to volatility, so I still expect a breakout one way or the other. CCI may have topped and RSI stopped at the blue divergence line. Now RSI is running in a range between the 50 line as support and the upper divergence lines getting pinched down. I'm not sure how long it can stay in this range. At this time I'm leaning to a push south to the 1085 level.

SPX 60m - This chart says fall, but I would caution bears to look out for the 1103 level where the 50ma and the lower BB sit. If that cracks the bears may be in business.See my 15m chart for the most detail on fibs, TLs and S/R.









E- minis - Up 4.5 at this time and were as high as 1112 overnight. Currently 1108. Trading at the upper end near resistance of the upper resistance line of the past few weeks and backtesting the lower P2 support line. So that should be a double doozie.

DXY - Ending a rising wedge and should rollover here. The daily indicators are getting pretty toppy.

Oil - If you look at the chart I showed yesterday am, you will see the lower channel line held and there is a good chance it is going to pop from here. I'll do an energy post today I think.

Natgas - /NG futures have moved above NT resistance, but will that move hold? Indicators are a little toppy with a divergence in RSI showing upside should be limited from here. I'll get a UNG post out soon.

/ZN 10yr treauries futures - looks like an ABC corrective is just about complete and the daily indicators are about to show some buy signals.


EUR/USD continues to fall and has taken out all support lines I have. Daily indicators are embedding on the low end. I think the 1.51 high is set.

EUR/JPY - Holding the 128.50 support. We'll know more in January when it nears it's upper TL.

Inflation? Frozen Concentrated OJ - No there has not been a big freeze. Like I said- It will and is happening in specific areas, thus not the perfect storm. This chart demonstrates there is some inflation out there.

GL out there and happy holidays.

Morning Post

I hope you had a good weekend. 11 days to Christmas. More importantly 17 till 2010 where I believe the action begins. Dubai gets bailed out and thus saves CITI's (and the global financial system) butt. So, you can say we dodged a huge bullet there. I'm not sure what will happen with volume this week. Maybe the holiday volume started three weeks early?

Some have asked why I have stopped giving targets? Well, first they are all in the charts via fibs, S/R lines, BB's, gaps and  trendlines. Second, when the market is range bound line this and is lacking clear direction there is no point. Since I do not trade 1 and 2% moves, I do not see a need to slap a fib on every squiggle. Now I do have 1, 5, and 15m charts that I try to keep updated in the chartbook for a greater drill down if you like. I have also been asked about my EWT count. LOL - I'm not even sure if EWI has a count nor if the good Lord could count this mess. I think we're in the last wave up with a possible 1214 top target or we are in a topping process. I'm just gonna wait for it to blow out the end of the barrel and get some clear direction. Then I'll start counting again.

SPX daily - Someone wanted a daily chart, so here it is. I can not make this one say go down like the 15m I posted yesterday, but it does say the bulls are very weak and the bears can't get their act together. First note all the support under price. I count 9 support points from 1064 up. Next note the narrow BB's. Anything below 60 has created volatility and with them sitting at 29 something should be about to pop. RSI now has 3 separate divergence lines and has been trading between them and the 50 line for a month. The red line is cracking and a push to the blue line may be in order, but the upper BB may have something to say about that. S Sto got a bull cross Friday, but it never made it to being oversold and is right under TL.

SPX 60m - MACD hist does not look good. S Sto overbought. This chart looks toppy, but you know I do not thrust or trade on the 60m and find it highly unreliable. It does say toppy though. Notice the group of gaps on the upswings between 1090 and 1100. Something (?) is protection that 1088 price level. If that cracks, there is not much below it to keep the market from going straight to 1030.

DXY 60m - For all the bearish angles I tried to take above, if the dollar and the markets decide to resume their dance, this rising wedge should be viewed as potentially bullish near term for the markets. One thing that I am speculating about is that they are going to keep the $ in a range and use it to prop up the markets. Let it breathe and then deflate it. Although the dollar has decidedly bottomed for now (according to the TA I see) and broken out of its LT falling wedge, they may drag it out down here for a while.

Oil daily - goes under $70 and cracks a level I was not ready for it to violate. I thought the yellow channel would hold. Let's see what happens at support at $65.

EUR/USD daily - The breakdown continues. I'm not sure if the dashed gray TL holds here or not. Let's see what happens at the $1.44 level.







VIX - Needs to hold the lower TL near 21.
EUR/JPY - wedging down with support at $126.71.
Gold - Still in the channel down. but may be nearing a pop point as I mentioned last week.
Natgas - Looking to see any reaction to the XOM deal.

Morning Post

Running a little late so it has to be a quickie.

SPX 60m - See the red TL? Break that with some conviction and set a lower low and we'll get a full frontal bear move. Till then that range in the red diagonal is still in play. I do not believe the top TL will be tested again (that is not saying I have called a top - which 1119 was most likely it at this point). 60m indicators still have a little room to fall and there are no divergences to speak of to price at this time signaling a turn up. 

SPX daily - Whether the TL's and labels are right or wrong (this is a chart I play with), you can not argue with the divergences to price in the indicators and the interaction with the upper bear market TL and the 50% fib retracement.  See the red box? Taht is a lot of nasty stuff in there that does not look good for the bulls. I do like that target in the circle. Those should look familiar from the SPX channels I showed yesterday.

VIX daily - I think the VIX has bottomed based on the action of price and it's relation the the 50 and 100ma. The blue boxes tell a good story. It can't hold a break above the ma's. When the 50 crosses the 100 the bears party will be on. No telling how long that will take, but with them less than 6 points apart it may not take long. The indicators are mixed, but favor a bullish move here for the VIX.





It is a  tough call here. We are near the TL of what has been a really choppy market for three weeks and they may force it back up here some. I think the bulls have lost their mojo and the top is most likely in, but that is not a call (you can't go against the PPT). Odds are good that we stay range bound till the EOY. Bottom line is the divergences on the daily and weekly charts with the price action say loud and clear the bulls have had their run. Now we have to wait patiently for the selling to commence.

GL and happy holidays.

I'll be doing some more daily posts on other stuff so look for them.

Morning Post

Anyone care to hear that the markets set new highs yesterday? Any one care to hear that the /ESU9 put in a perfect double top overnight at 1038.75? Funny now that most counts match mine now. Nothing like having EWI (and some others that will remain nameless) bow to their daddy Shanky's count. (Now get on your knees). Remember I don't truly count the squiggles and such. I play TA first using broad and short market formations and indicators and THEN marry that to EWT principles. Oh, and the big secret, trust in the manipulators (never bet against the house playing with HAL 9000). So the ABC correction has new life as I see it. My target date of 10/12 is in tact and target range of 1050 to 1121 in tact.

On to the markets -

Stockcharts is still down, so no charts from them this am. One simple chart.

/ESU9 - THE CHANNEL. I have pointed to it as your guide for several days now. It needed a little adjustment Monday, but it is solid and there. The other thing that I have told you to watch is the trendline above the daily RSI. Market is closing in on that, so look for a potential turn there. The other other thing is the 50 and 75% lines inside the larger channel on the /ES. 1038.75 on the /ES almost touched the 50% line which is close enough for government work IMO. The daily indicators still look bullish (watch RSI). SPX is in the resistance zone established at the last top.

I can see this as ending a 1 of 3 of C the way the daily indicators are trendling and possibly setting up a 2 down, thus further setting up the indicators for a 3 of C up when the dailys bottom (that is in a dream perfect world scenario). This all appears improbable when looking at the weeklys (but not the monthlys).

Remember I have been begging for a larger pullback to set divergences on the weeklys and then the final sucker run to the top. This is still a possibility, but looking less likely. I have also been a staunch proponent of something "external" happening to rip the market away from the manipulators grasp to begin P3. When the fall starts, you will know it. It will be brutal and I am speculating at least two market closures on the way down. Investors know the fall is coming. they experienced the last fall and will not hesitate to head for the gates this time.

So look for a 2 wave to begin soon. To what degree? 1015 to 1009 are the current retracements. I'll be looking for Some sort of triangle or ABC to form soon.

This weekend I'll put some charts together with targets of the potential top if it should occur.

GL trading today.

Morning Post

Really tough call today as the indicators say there is more upside, but my gut is telling me this run is topping. If we are in P3 you have two options here. Either we are completing 5 of 2 of 1 of 3 and the dreaded wave 1 of 3 of 1 of 3 is about to start or this is the end of 1 of C of the corrective P2 pattern. Not really sure which option I prefer. I have leaned and won thus far with the manipulators, but with the news and pure economic facts that things are as bad as they should be and not as bad as CNBS would have you believe, I am more worried about significant downside risk than any sort of continued bull run.

60m SPX chart - SPX has completed the 61.8% retracement of the move from 1038 to 991 and is entering the zone where it consolidated for roughly two weeks at the end of August and the beginning of September. Indicators on this chart are topping.

Daily SPX chart - Divergences continuing to get worse as indicators tell of an impending fall.

Here is the 15m SPX chart with fibs for the next pullback (1013, 1009 and 1005) if we top here and the gap surrounding 1017. This chart also shows the possible I II count that EWT may have us in on P3 down very well as the two channels for each move are very clear. Watch for the 25ma on this chart to break as a sell signal (charts are real time at stockcharts).



/ESU9 - The channel of the past several trading days broke down in pre-market and is trying to break back in.



GL trading today.

Morning Post - Flat To Down As 5 Churns Out

Good morning. Holiday weekend, more bank failures expected and the onslaught of college football. I could not think of a better combination.

On to the markets. Simply amazing the rebound from the glorious jobs number. /ES went from 1007 to 1000 in a minute and three minutes later it is at 1009. After all of the rumors this week about banks and the relevant fact that we can assume at least one bank in Georgia should bite the dust this afternoon, I am a little leery of the possibilities of something nasty happening after the close. Is the climb in gold someone applying some sunscreen to their portfolio?

Daily SPX chart - RSI bouncing off of 50, but Full and Slow Sto still in nose dive. MACD still rolling over but Histogram appears to be losing some steam and there is a trendline to cross right under the signal line. ADX whipsawed yesterday. The bears should not like the RSI and MACD hist moves as they possibly foretell of a pause in the fall. COMP, DOW and SPX are all sitting on various trendlines of what I believe to be significant. Mainly COMP as it has made it to the lower wedge support line.

60m SPX Chart - - You can see the channel down to back test the last triangle. All the indicators are green. They can embed, but given the more than 61.8% retracement of the run from 974 to 1039 maybe the dip is being bought up by the bots.

Here is the 60m /ESU( chart from this morning. Three things to notice. A) The channel that has formed. B) The indicators in relation to the top trendline say toppy. C) A 38.2% retracement of the fall has been made. This move now qualifies and looks like a completed ABC for a 4th wave corrective up. If the fall from 1038 to 1012 = 26 and the /ES sops at 1010 then you get a target for 5 down at 984. Very reasonable I think. This is, of course, that the counts are right. Notice the support from the 75% line (red on the bottom) of the GSEC channel.

Just like the reaction to the jobs number, I am confused. Sorry, sure you do not want to hear that at this stage of the post, but you have to ask the questions how, why and WTF about the reaction to another dreadful employment number? Bizzaro shit if you ask me. TARP money in play at GS or did some kid just fat finger a trade? I am going to stick with my call for a basically flat to down day today given where the indicators are as 4 churns out and 5 should begin. If she falls I like 984. I would be surprised if it climbs much at all looking at 1015 as the peak of the range if it should. I will speculate that this afternoon may be interesting given the rumors this week.

GL trading.

Good Morning - Flat to Down.

Tougher call today as muted responses to market data continue to baffle. After checking out Dan's post and a few others, looks like the pennant that has formed should lead to further upside. If it plays out as measures one target is 1048 and the other 1038 depending on point of measurement. The is not a call.

Lots and lots and even more people calling for a pullback. With the daily upper BB at 1032 and the 60m and weekly indicators topped out combined with the position of the daily indicators recent confusion I will lead to a flat to down call for today. The wild card this afternoon (other than the usual 3:30 GS/LPM ramp job) will be speculation on Dell's earnings after the close.

If she should fall - 1115, 1004 and 995 should be support levels. 1115, 1008 and 1001 are the fib retracements. The old gap may come into play around 1004.

We need volume and a catalyst for some real movement IMO. I'm not sure how to feel about the muted reaction to the past few day's news. Very strange.

GL today.



This 5m SPX chart gives a better picture of the falling wedge I think that is in play. You can see (although unlabeled) the triangle above running the top side of this blue falling wedge/diagonal. Also notice the 65ma that catches tops and bottoms pretty well. The ma is splitting price IMO meaning confusion on direction. This chart and all my charts are real time at my chartbook on SC. Link to right.

At This Moment In Time.

I'm looking for a pullback soon as the parabolic run should have an end. Vol drying up and top BB on the 60 and daily charts is in the way. The "pinch" of price between the upper BB and the lower trendline has to give and the indicators are saying overbought, thus I'm guessing pullback to the gap fill or 1015 level for the 2 of C. 3 of C up should be interesting. Add to that the market is not really reacting to all the good news this am. Strange - maybe the 3:30 ramp job will pick it up.

Note: the 60m indicators really don't mean shit these days. Look at them on this chart decline the whole time of the A leg up of this run. Amazing.

Pre Market /ESU9

SPX ran up to just under gap resistance on the hopes that the jobs number would be better than expected. Since it was not (or it was not as manipulated as in the past), we have the reversal (as predicted by the 60m indicators in the chart from last night's post). Those that got in pre-market this am got great entries I believe. The fat pink line is the 61.8% retracement of the fall off 1018. Not sure about the channel, but that to trendline is rock solid. 987 is the fib retrace target of this run up.

I really want to welcome new follower "Mastt" and give him Shanky's award for Best Blogger Photo Of The Year. That will make a GSEC stand up!

GL today.

SPX Today - She's Goin Down And You Will Like It! (Plus Dollar, Oil, Vix and Shanghai)

OK, so we made it thru a false pop today because the rumors of a second stimulus were going around (now if someone would explain to me A) why that is a good idea and B) how is it possible - anyway you now know what to look out for in the future when that talk starts going around - IMO it is realistic but unrealistic if you know what I mean).

Note - The width of the BB's on the daily chart are extremely tight indicating something is about to bust. Up or down? That is what I am trying to decipher.

Bear case - Bottom line is the weekly and daily indicators are headed south and the 60m (see chart below) is topping out and possibly rolling over. That puts all three in line for a powerful move if it happens.

Bull case - 1) the 60m turn signals are not confirmed yet 2) the action of the RSI on the daily chart (holding 50 and headed up), the MACD hist on the daily is stopping its fall, the S Sto on the daily appears to be losing some momo.

I'm hoping the rollover of the 60m and having the opex trade out of the way will make room for more downside action. I want 945 so bad I can taste it. I have two channels drawn on the chart (red and Blue). All lines are copies of the other. They both would make for nice targets. The tight ass BB's on the daily indicate something is about to bust a move big time, so be careful if you are short or long. When it runs, you'll know what team to be on.

My other thoughts - on the VIX - Well, I'm not going to call it totally irrelevant, but it may have lost some of it's luster IMO. I honestly think it will put in the dead cat bounce and possibly go for the backtest of the falling wedge. This will occur on the last hurah as the market climbs to 1050 after this correction. If the $SSEC Shanghai index is any indication, it has led the SPX and with this most recent fall after peaking, maybe, just maybe, the trend holds. As for the dollar and oil - who the heck knows. They are both so manipulated. I'm guessing the bottom is in for the dollar and a top is in on oil, but those are only guesses.

Feedback welcomed - GL trading!

Daily Chart Link

Daily Indicator Chart Link

Weekly Indicator Chart Link

A Few More Charts To Digest - We're Getting Closer

Weekly indicators that I wanted to set divergences for the next fall have done worse and are now beginning to embed (with the dailys). Needless to say I expected this run up, but I wanted it after a deeper pullback that I did not get. This exuberance can not last forever (well, it can last as long as the HFT's and the BHO's want it to actually - they have all the money in the world to play with and whether you or I participate is a non factor these days IMO)

So the next hurdle IMO will be the trendlines on the monthly indicators. I'm really watching the RSI and Slow Sto trendlines and the MACD histogram. The severely declining buy volume is a great indicator that this rally is on its last legs.

SPXA50 is above 400 again (what a freaking joke that is). The PE ratios are not realistic. You should realize that the monthly Sto indicators are going to have to embed here and whipsaw after bull crosses. MACD will need a whipsaw as well. TRIX has a way to go to cross, but it lags the market IMO. The market has made it thru EOM painting.

I'm still guessing we top in October in a range from 1050 to 1121 at either a 38% or 50% retracement from the big fall where they intersect with the top market line. Two green target lines shown. I'm in the ABC corrective camp and this is possibly the beginning of 3.C.2 with 868 having possibly been the bottom of B (again I wanted a deeper move for B, but might not get it). That was a pretty impulsive move this AM disregarding employment and treasury sales (who give a shit?).

Link to chart in Stockcharts for better viewing.



I would also like for you to look at a yearly chart. I have shown it before and got poo pooed for it. Not so funny now is it? It is bullish as hell. The indicators there have bottomed and will need to turn and embed for significant downside move - So you are fighting monthly rising and yearly at the bottom rising and daily and weekly at the top. This kind of supports my theory for the need for an "external influence" to get the market to go where us permabears want it to.

Another Breakout? (A Mini Rant)

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Let's Try This Again - A Possible Bounce Here?

I hate being wrong. Let's get that out of the way. A few days ago I made a weak case for a bounce and got about 7 points before further collapse. Admittedly very wrong. Why? I have become so accustomed to the PPT, GS and the marry gang propping up the markets every time the 60m bottomed out I lost all focus.

Well, here is a little more versed shot at why we have a minor correction here before further weakness.

Notes are in the chart. Here goes - The ABC move off of 956 to here is complete. A=C. The yellow fib in the chart is the measurement. The C leg of the C leg measures .618 of the A leg of the C leg, so it can be technically complete. 60m indicators are all turning north from a short embedded stint. The red and black trendlines I believe are solid and were meant to hold this fall. There is another way of looking at the red falling wedge that may be breaking out. It could also play as an A-E count with a truncated E. That pattern would be completed as well or will be with another touch of the lower trendline. The steepness of the fall and some recent candle action are assisting the call. The 60m VIX looks to be turning as well.

Again, I will note that the dailys and weeklys are not ready for any major turn, so this call may be premature, but I am only looking to the fib retracements at the 900 to 902 level for the bounce. If I miss this call, then I got too good at reading manipulated markets and need to brush up on some real TA. Maybe GS has lost their touch since the cat got out of the bag with their proprietary market manipulation software. If that is the case, I'll surely be wrong.

On another note, I have gotten some comments and emails on the upcoming earnings season. My thoughts are mixed. First, the analysts are part of the game. They are in it to sell you something. If you are not buying then they don't make as much money. Second, the banks earnings will miss at some point, just not sure when. The manipulated bullshit that happened at the end of last year where they decided to just exclude a month of earnings will come back to bite them in the butt eventually. When is the question. Thus I have mixed views on how earnings will be. Rightfully so they should suck. How any retailer is still above water is beyond comprehension.

Note: Still on vacation in Colorado, so posts are few. Saw a big damn brown bear last night. Walked out of the restaurant after dinner and there down the side street about 50 yards away was this huge ass bear looking for some food. The marshall chased him around a few houses and he got away. I was hoping that would be some sort of sign.

GL trading and thanks for the views and comments.

SPX Channeling Down

Link to live chart updated throughout the day (well - when I can).

http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID3186525&cmd=show[s161800628]&disp=P

Second chart in my SC list. First link to the left.