Morning Post

Anyone care to hear that the markets set new highs yesterday? Any one care to hear that the /ESU9 put in a perfect double top overnight at 1038.75? Funny now that most counts match mine now. Nothing like having EWI (and some others that will remain nameless) bow to their daddy Shanky's count. (Now get on your knees). Remember I don't truly count the squiggles and such. I play TA first using broad and short market formations and indicators and THEN marry that to EWT principles. Oh, and the big secret, trust in the manipulators (never bet against the house playing with HAL 9000). So the ABC correction has new life as I see it. My target date of 10/12 is in tact and target range of 1050 to 1121 in tact.

On to the markets -

Stockcharts is still down, so no charts from them this am. One simple chart.

/ESU9 - THE CHANNEL. I have pointed to it as your guide for several days now. It needed a little adjustment Monday, but it is solid and there. The other thing that I have told you to watch is the trendline above the daily RSI. Market is closing in on that, so look for a potential turn there. The other other thing is the 50 and 75% lines inside the larger channel on the /ES. 1038.75 on the /ES almost touched the 50% line which is close enough for government work IMO. The daily indicators still look bullish (watch RSI). SPX is in the resistance zone established at the last top.

I can see this as ending a 1 of 3 of C the way the daily indicators are trendling and possibly setting up a 2 down, thus further setting up the indicators for a 3 of C up when the dailys bottom (that is in a dream perfect world scenario). This all appears improbable when looking at the weeklys (but not the monthlys).

Remember I have been begging for a larger pullback to set divergences on the weeklys and then the final sucker run to the top. This is still a possibility, but looking less likely. I have also been a staunch proponent of something "external" happening to rip the market away from the manipulators grasp to begin P3. When the fall starts, you will know it. It will be brutal and I am speculating at least two market closures on the way down. Investors know the fall is coming. they experienced the last fall and will not hesitate to head for the gates this time.

So look for a 2 wave to begin soon. To what degree? 1015 to 1009 are the current retracements. I'll be looking for Some sort of triangle or ABC to form soon.

This weekend I'll put some charts together with targets of the potential top if it should occur.

GL trading today.

Morning Post - Up (but I expect a turn soon)

Good morning. Welcome to a short work week (for some of you). Minis are up and my dual monitors are down (I'm down).

SPX 60m Chart - This is my favorite chart right now giving the best depiction of what's going on. SPX breaking out of the channel down sucking the life out of the shorts and all of the top callers. Indicators here are bullish but toppy (topped out S Sto and CCI). 1021 is a 61.8% retracement of the last fall.

SPX Daily Chart - RSI stopped at 50 and is turning up. S Sto bull cross on Friday. MACD histogram going up now.

The only two things I see that may stop the run are the Daily RSI has an established trendline above it and the 60m indicators are toppy. Those are two slim hopes (and slim may have left town). The weekly chart is very toppy, so if you are a bull you need to heed the caution signs flashing all over the weekly chart.

/ESU9 - RSI, MACD and S Sto all very toppy. Completed a 61.8% retracement of the last fall. 1028 is the 78.6% retracement. You can clearly see the channel action over the past few weeks and the channel it is in now. I would like for you to notice how the larger GSEC channel 75% line (red lower trendline) is acting as a nice floor for this move.



/ESU9 Daily chart - Notice the divergence in RSI and the embedded MACD. I added the yellow box which is the 50% to 61.8% fib retracement for the whole move.



Add it all up and I have to say it is gonna be a flat to up day today given where the indicators are positioned. The weeklys are seriously toppy, so this run should not last much longer.

GL trading today (and wish me luck getting my second monitor back).

Good Morning

Channeling down as can be seen in the 30m /ESU9 below. Small pop down on the disappointing ADP report this am. So what if they missed by 60k. Whats 27%? Hell, Ford missed by 50% and that really did not mean shit either. I am surprised CNBS reported it. Pay no attention to the man behind the curtain.

Daily chart - Broke thru lower rising wedge tendline and back testing the top trendline of the last triangle break out and the 61% fib off of the 978 low. SPX runs into lots of support from 980 to 965. Lower BB at 980, 38% fib at 974 and then the 50ma below at 965. Then the 50% fib is at 954 and 61% at 934. The ONE THING that gives me caution about the daily chart, even though the RSI trendline is busted, is that the RSI is sitting on 50. ADX is about to bear cross.

The 60m chart - Indicators almost bottomed out and blown out bottom of lower BB. I no longer pay much attention to the 60m indicators as they have been very unreliable of late, but they are near the bottom and should embed.

I expect some follow thru from yesterday. If this thing gets some momo look out. If this is the end of a 3 and we have a 4 corrective, 5 should take us right to 980/974 range. That would end 1 of 1 of P3. Holiday weekend coming up and some are speculating some big bank issues then. Might make a good set up for a 3 down on Monday!

Kenny has his C top and Dan has his P2 top called. Still grinding over my no top call. Thanks for all the positive emails and comments. They are appreciated. As Aidyn noted, calling the top is not important, making $$ is. I am short and playing it as the top is in and you should too. THE STRUCTURE OF THE FALL is the most important thing to pay attention to now.

I'll be doing the long promised UNG post this am.

GL trading!