Wednesday, July 31, 2013

Morning Charts 07/31/13 SPX /ES

Yesterday I gave it the whatever and tug-o-war call and that was about spot on as that's what happened. Let's continue to keep it simple as there is really nothing to discuss other than taper on/off, and we've beat that to death. All there is to do at this point is wait. The Bernank is speaking, so as usual STB will wait for his direction. Follow the Fed, that's all there is to do at this point. Well, that and wait for my "event".

Minis at the close yesterday - It should be pretty clear to those of you that have followed me and know how to read trendlines. 1688 is kinda a key level here for resistance. A breakout and backtest of the yellow channel resistance should have the bears a bit worried, but then there is that pesky 88 level. Looking up, over 88 and the bulls could run, a lot. Down below is the peach major support diagonal near 1665. That's a very wide berth which aptly describes the market's potential to move either way at this point. There appears to have been a failed ascending triangle (green dashed) over the past two days. This is unusual as this has been a formation that has worked almost every time to the bulls advantage.

I could discuss a lot of this and that, but am trying to avoid simply regurgitating a lot of things you already know. If you want detailed discussion about the current goings on and the superlative issues that surround the markets, see the comment section below as a blow by blow is delivered below every day.

More charts and stuff to come below as usual.

Have a good day.

GL and GB!

Tuesday, July 30, 2013

Morning Charts 07/30/13 SPX /ES

Whatever - Which way will the wind blow today? More than likely up the skirt, but you never know. What used to be clockwork has become somewhat of a guessing game, We had a whole bunch of taper ON talk yesterday. Apparently either Mr.Market is in disbelief, or it does not know what to believe anymore based on yesterday's price action.

The market did not tank. Why? Why not the same reaction as a month ago? Well I'd guess another abrupt about face from the Fed, you know, the ones that come when the markets start fading fast, is apparently expected to be delivered at any moment. Bernanke just got it out of his mouth he can't stop easing, yet here we are again tapering ON?

Like I said, whatever. Getting thru August is gonna be hell I think, but that is OK. Market tops are never easy. I've discussed for some time not the volatility that would come, and it has not disappointed thus far. I expect the craziness to pick up a bit.

Minis - Well, it is what it is. I have no crystal ball. Above red and green busted support backtests are resistance. Below is peach major support. This is your tug-o-war.

Minis - So, is she rolling over or is this just another bull flag? If she's rolling over peach support is the first line they will try to defend. If that cracks the red diagonal in the lower right corner will be the line they MUST defend. That sort of thinking at this time is still a bit premature. The charts say it isn't, but the Bernank, well he still has a few things left to say.

As usual, more to come below.

Have a good day.

GL and GB!

Monday, July 29, 2013

Morning Charts 07/29/13 SPX /ES

Again, working on the basic math, if the US economy is supposed to be 70% consumer driven (instead of 70% government) then if this is so (which it is) we're truly in grave trouble, "the latest AP survey of the real America shows a stunning four out of five U.S. adults struggle with joblessness, are near poverty, or rely on welfare for at least parts of their lives amid signs of deteriorating economic security and an elusive American dream."

The stories of economic depression are endless, but as noted in the above post consumer confidence is at a six-year high. Believe what you will. The lies run long and deep, and the sheeple's level of denial is as high as ever. "It can't happen here" is apparently alive and well for now.

We're in one of those grey areas of discovery I believe. With the debt ceiling and taper on/off issues about to bitch slap up square in the face next month, I have a feeling that the real fears are about to be realized. Till then, you have to play their game and ride their coattails. They will keep the game going as long as they can. Remember they have to get their money out forst and position their portfolios for the crash ahead of everyone else.

This is the same minis chart from the OWP at the close Friday. 1700 is not too far away, but it lies thru the backtest of the red and green channels. From here to the 1695 area has a few roadblocks. To the downside the peach diagonal support at 1660 is the real deal. If that is to go things could get interesting.

Daily SPX - You can't get a chart that is much more bearish than this one, yet the price action continues to defy reality. Well, depending on which definition of reality you use, the new one or the historic one.

Friday, July 26, 2013

OWP 07/27-28/13 SPX /ES

You know the drill, share the love and the knowledge.

I'll be around and updating things. If anything jumps out at me I'll post it here or below.

I have a feeling till mid-August will remain agonizingly painful for the bears.

Minis - I did tweak the yellow channel a bit to catch the tops. The Fed is scared as hell of that lower peach diagonal. The bears are thinking a more proper backtest of busted red support here, and the bulls, well, they just see infinite gains ahead. What a great place to close for the weekend eh? They gotta leave you guessing or you may not come back Monday.

Enjoy the weekend.

GL and GB!

DOW Detail - Morning Charts 07/26/13 SPX /ES

I am so glad this week is over.

Looking at the DOW just as we did with the minis yesterday.

DOW Monthly from 1997 - Different from the minis and SPX - the top here in '07 was a higher high which in turn gave the DOW an upper resistance diagonal that runs over a decade. The blue diagonal is from the close and the black is from the spikes. If the Fed and CB's want a bogey, this would be it. Can they attain it? Not sure at this point. Maybe they have come far enough? Right now blue sits near 15780 and black is closer to 16000.

DOW Weekly - From the bottom in '09 - red channel dominates. Now this formation is common on all the near perfectly correlated indexes.

And what I mean by perfectly correlated and all in the same channel I mean every index is searching for that upper diagonal. And to think that last November that point was so far out of the equation that imagining it was not feasible.

DOW Daily -

Thursday, July 25, 2013

Minis In Depth - Morning Charts 07/25/13 SPX /ES

Keeping it simple again this moar-ning.

Below charts are ALL THE SAME. I am just drilling down into my minis chart and giving you the technical breakdown from where we started to yesterday. All the same chart, so pay attention to the flow as I drill down and try and connect things so you (at least the novices) get it. Ask questions below if necessary. Glad to answer anything. I may work up the same for cash soon.

Minis Weekly - Blue channel off the 2009 lows, look for the upper blue resistance diagonal in the charts below. At this time we're only concerned about the upside resistance. Hopefully one day soon we'll be concerning ourselves with that channels support. You also need to note the yellow ascending triangle where the E touch is in a major overthrow. It is a bit hard to see, but I've been showing it for over a year now so you know what's up with that. The apex of that triangle is in January, which may or may not concern us. Time will tell.

Minis Daily - The upper right of the above chart. The beige channel off the November lows. This is the main driver of everything right now. Price drove up through upper yellow triangle resistance in the rising beige channel. The market made a serious statement when support of this beige channel broke during the taper on conversations. Because of this minor emergency BSB rather quickly made his infamous statement that "if they stop easing the market will crash" and that created the move back into the beige channel, the higher high and the red channel we're now in. (Note the lower red - not the channel - support diagonal here as well)

Minis 4hr - (note the proximity of the upper blue long tern market resistance line here near 1730) The red channel back into the beige channel has been dominated by two intermediate channels, white and green.

Wednesday, July 24, 2013

Morning Charts 07/24/13 SPX /ES

I'm still bored. China's PMI miss has to be bullish, right?

SPX weekly - From the bottom. Note the blue channel.

SPX Daily - Two words come to mind - Train Wreck.

DOW Weekly - From the bottom, yellow channel.

DOW Daily - Unlike the SPX there is a little more room to climb for the bellwether of the indexes.

RUT Weekly - From the bottom.

RUT Daily - Now on the work computer I have this and SPX all over the upper channel resistance diagonals. So I'll have to compare them. This shows a bit more room for the Fed's darling index to climb.

I think I may keep the commentary to a minimum the rest of the week, up here at least. Call it a boycott of sorts. Of course this also may be interpreted as a sign of some sort as well. I can get quiet for a day, but for me to shut up the better part of a week? Something is churning in my head.

The commentary is pretty much spot on right now and says everything and more than I can bring to you up here at this time. If you don't read it, you should. We're now in a waiting game. A possible last bull trap. The big money is heading out the back door setting up the sheep for their last fleecing.

Their distractions are being prepared. Wars, false flags, social issues, it is only a matter of time for them to start feeding the MSM the propaganda necessary to fool the sheeple one last time (you know that's legal for them now). It's gonna be the biggest line of shit ever fed a society in the history of the universe, and we'll suck it up hook, line and sinker.Their police state is close to completion. Something large is coming. We're close, and I can feel it.

Have a good day.

GL and GB!

Tuesday, July 23, 2013

Morning Charts 07/23/13 SPX /ES

I'm tired of all the BS. Tired of discussing the same thing over and over. Tired of the endless QE driven market, so let's just keep it simple this morning.

SPX 60m - That pink line, the backtest, is a big deal.

SPX 30m -

The rest of the charts mean little at this point (to the degree I'm just pissed off right now). There are some topping signals that are close. Actually there are a lot of things that are close, especially a major trendline I've been discussing. Just not going thru the motions this morning, sorry. I'll throw up the usual charts in the commentary and more if necessary.

Have a good day.

GL and GB!

Monday, July 22, 2013

Morning Charts 07/22/13 SPX /ES

Manipulation - We discuss it all the time. How rampant is it? How many markets does it cross, or are there any markets not touched by it? A recent example can be found in JPMorgan may face record $1 billion fine for energy market manipulation. This recent hot water comes just after JPMorgan wins dismissal of silver price-fixing lawsuitand we're all very well versed in JPM's activity in the gold market. Alas no one goes to jail, no one admits guilt, fines are paid that amount to a small percentage of the gains and everyone moves along. Never mind the consequences. Never mind the effect on the small investor. Never mind the overall effect on the economy. Just so no one gets in trouble and profits are up, it's all good.

JPM is stuck in the middle of everything "rigged" these days. In Fed Reviews Rule on Big Banks’ Commodity Trades After Complaints you see, "“When Wall Street banks control the supply of both commodities and financial products, there’s a potential for anti-competitive behavior and manipulation,”" I like Denninger's angle complementing my thought above, "The problem is that you, the consumer of these commodities, in this case energy, do not get a refund for the amount you were overcharged, nor do you get interest on the money stolen from you."

Forget all that, JPM is toast as the gold scam will be coming to an end much sooner than later as they are almost out of gold. The best primer I have seen on market manipulation from A-Z can be found in If We Don’t Break Up the Big Banks, They Will Manipulate More and More of the Economy … Making Us Poorer and PoorerIt's all in there; interest rates, commodities, oil, gold, you name it - the complete list.

Friday, July 19, 2013

Open Weekend Post - 07/20-21/13

You know the drill, share the love and the knowledge.

OK, everyone is ready for a false flag or something to go down. I get it, but don't think they are at a point of desperation or ready to launch major distractions. They will be needed sooner than later, but I don't think we're there quite yet.

Minis 4hr - That heavy sky blue line above left - that's a drop dead upper LT channel resistance. Right now we're in the red channel which had the white channel break down inside in and a green channel form after that. The peach channel price fought back into is a huge deal as well.

Minis 30m - closer look at the green channel, red and peach support.

Do what you do best. Post away below. I'll update a bunch this weekend watching the Open Championship. Thanks for one of the best weeks ever on the blog. You folks rocked it everyday.

Enjoy the weekend.

GL and GB!

Morning Charts 07/19/13 SPX /ES

About all I have to say this morning is remain calm. I believe it is quite apparent to all that we're nearing the end of this debt debacle, but objects in the mirror may not be as close as they appear. The Fed has made it abundantly clear, and as we have all known for some time, the markets will crash without Fed support. So the Bernank says they will not taper and will continue to support their farce. The markets are their last great illusion masking reality.

It is true that at virtually any second the markets can let go. They have no support other than the PPT. Not until they lose control or they chose will the markets let go. QE is losing its luster and ability to lift price. At this point I would not be surprised to see QE lifted from $85 billion a month to something in the neighborhood of $105bn.

Ridiculous? Unthinkable? Insane? Of course but they can't just maintain, they must lift. Whose to stop them? It would be praised by those in power and  remain misunderstood by the sheeple who will remain quiet as long as their portfolios keep on going up. They are desperate, so don't think that this can't happen.

They may possibly be about to go to blackmail level II I think. Remember TARP? Well, the markets crash or else is upon us again. The Beranak's words this week may have been some to heed. If they can't stop easing, and if the markets can't be lifted anymore at current levels, if they are going to possibly lose control of interest rates, if everyone in congress is going to lose their job, then what's the next logical step?

It does not matter where you look globally, liquidity must be injected for it is the only life force left. So China, Japan, the EU, wherever they ease it insures the lies can persist, and the markets will celebrate accordingly. Their backs are against the wall. They have painted themselves into a corner via their desperate actions to save their power base and continue their robbery of the general public.

To think they will just let this go is unimaginable. You still have no other options but to let them play their game. To resist is futile as many of you know, so remain calm and cautious.

The bear's time is coming. It won't be long now. Syria, Egypt, Israel, MENA, China, Japan, the EU, Oil. dollar, Treyvon, it is all starting to crumble. They can't keep this juggling act going forever and they can only throw so much money at it.

Minis 30m - I'm watching the green channel for now. Below red channel support and then brown channel support are key. If they begin to go the red blinking warnings signs will be going off everywhere.

As usual more to come below.

Enjoy the weekend.

GL and GB!

Thursday, July 18, 2013

Morning Charts 07/18/13 SPX /ES

You know, it is what it is till it isn't. That's about as pronounced and provocative as I can get right now describing things in the market (and in the US as a whole for that matter). A heap of poo works quite well also. When the Fed chair throws out statements like he's "not literally" printing money, he's right. Money these days is created by manipulating 1's and 0's on a computer. This is a far cry from the "not monetizing debt" speak a few years back isn't it?

The saddest part of yesterday's speak to me was when the fed virtually admitted that if they tightened the economy "would tank". Well, that's comforting, but why don't you tell us something we don't know Mr. Chairman. And the market's reaction? Well it is a wonder the fear index is not negative now as the virtual promise the market will never tank has been delivered loud and clear. What a difference a few weeks make. From taper on/market crash to taper off/all is well, the Fed tested the waters and did not like the sharks nipping at their ankles.

All I can do at this point is refer to one of my earliest, and proving to be most poignant, calls from over four years ago, nothing happens till an exterior "event" takes control from "them". And to think so many unimaginable things have happened since then. I don't quite qualify as an old timer, but I've been around the block a few times. It is unfathomable to think about the level of control and manipulation being exerted over the markets right now. This market and time will be most interesting to read in the history books. Well, let me clarify that, depending on who gets to write the story.

Check the past two days of posts for a good technical description of where the markets are now. We're closing in on something.

Wednesday, July 17, 2013

Nearing The End - Morning Charts 07/17/13 SPX /ES

Call it Bernanke day. One can only assume that unless there is a serious leak in information (like possibly yesterday), the markets should remain rather stable leading up to the testimony. Bottom line is - taper on/off. Nothing else matters.

As shown in the charts yesterday, other than the SPX (in a world of its own) all the major indexes are approaching multi-year long term resistance diagonals. These are not your garden variety resistance points. These are the real deal. Now, we all know that absolutely nothing is real anymore and historical norms can no longer be relied on any more.

Maybe, perhaps, this is TA's last stand against the manipulation and corruption that has dominated the market for the past four years. TA has a nasty way of showing up at just the right time, right when the shit is about to hit the fan and make the ultimate statement that price never lies. We're close to finding out if that is still true.

The bond markets always tell the truth long before equities wake up to reality, and they've been screaming for close to a year now (which is unprecedented). I don't think there is any doubt to the realism that the bond traders are far more intelligent and insightful than the greed driven stock jockeys. One group is in touch with reality and the other with champagne, the drug du jour and their ego. Who should you listen to?

This long term TNX chart compliments yesterday's selections quite well. What you see is a multi-year rising wedge that has a completed A-E formation, has broken down and now sits directly on its last support leg. There is no support (thanks Fed) from here to 119 and very few scattered below that. The bond boys were way ahead of the taper talk, and they knew something would eventually go down.

All systems are on go for an "event" of some sort.

Tuesday, July 16, 2013

Morning Charts 07/16/13 SPX /ES

Near term -

Minis 30m -

Minis 5m -

Long term - Things are getting close. Long term resistance diagonals just ahead.


Monday, July 15, 2013

Lies - Morning Charts 07/15/13 SPX /ES

Excluding the markets for now, the most important thing I found this weekend was U.S. Repeals Propaganda Ban, Spreads Government-Made News To AmericansIn this post I learned that, "For decades, a so-called anti-propaganda law prevented the U.S. government's mammoth broadcasting arm from delivering programming to American audiences. But on July 2, that came silently to an end with the implementation of a new reform passed in January. The result: an unleashing of thousands of hours per week of government-funded radio and TV programs for domestic U.S. consumption in a reform initially criticized as a green light for U.S. domestic propaganda efforts." Apparently, we can be fed whatever they want to feed us, how and when now without any prejudice.

That only makes sense. I mean when living in a time when in a TBTJ environment, they really need to be able to tell us any story they must in order to keep up buying their BS about recoveries, constitutional rights and a rapidly failing economy that only survives on a increasing debt on top of already unsustainable debt. I suggest you read Bill Black: The Banks Have Blood On Their Hands. Lies on top of lies are the new foundation of everything financial. 

"So we already have the insanity of derivative trades in which both of us book a gain because we have different evaluations for the asset. So we have phenomenal paper gains that cannot be true. When the markets no longer trust each other, then those kinds of transactions do not work anymore, and there is no liquidity, and you are in the equivalent of trying to sell minority shareholder interest in a privately held corporation. How is that going to work out for you? Ever tried to do that?"

And for the next round of lies and propaganda we need to look no further than Syria where it was Assad that originally used chemical weapons, right? Or was it our rebels? That is immaterial as the moves there are escalating. Israeli Subs Destroy Russian Missiles In Syria; Russia Holds Largest Post-Soviet Military Drill. Let's not even get into the whole M Brotherhood situation and Egypt. That is a whole nother mess of lies.

And now on to the biggest lie of then all -

The markets - What to think here? China just nailed their latest lie on GDP. Rajoy would never tell a lie or redirect euros, so Spain is all good. Earnings fibs are rampant (think AA and the lowered estimates and hurdles). Taper is OFF. Shall I continue? Let's not and say we did, OK? Bottom line - all is well - until it isn't.

Daily SPX -

Friday, July 12, 2013

Open Weekend Post 07/13-14/13 SPX /ES

You know the drill, share the love and the knowledge.

STB taking the weekend off. Thanks to all for one of the best weeks ever on STB.

Do what you do best, have at it below. I may or may not pop in, not sure. All will be back to normal Monday though.

Enjoy the weekend.

GL and GB!

Morning Charts 07/12/13 SPX /ES

At this point all I got for you is ..... LOL.

What else can you do? Had another moment late last night with a wealthy sheeple that does not believe in my doomsday thesis. Bottom line is the sheeple see and do what they want controlling their own reality. I guess we all have plug-n-play lives these days. How nice. 

I've said all I have to say for this week. QE4eva is back on. End of story. What else is there to say? What else can be said? Why waste my time and yours? The wealthy ass, DA, sheeple I met last night can go about his business and call me a loon all he wants and be 100% right. 

Till he isn't. 

Thanks RC and all for the effort last night taking STB to a comment 4 handle for the first time eva. HA! 4eva - get it? nah, let's not go there. Sorry I was not there. It is Corexit time for me. 

I owe a serious thanks and need to compliment the comment section this week especially. Y'all kick ass. Best eva by far. 

OWP will be up after the close. 

Daily SPX - Wow, another RS launching pad. They take you to the edge, build you up and then slam your ass like The Rock slamming Diesel. I'd like to go the female tease analogy route, cause that is actually more painful, but let's not go there. You know, I saw it. Saw it plain as day. I said if they took out 35 and the 61% retracement, never friggin mind,. I don't want to discuss it any more this week. Their MO was laid before me for all to see, I saw it and I still could not believe my eyes even after all these years.

Now what? That's friggin simple - party on Garth! This is soooo stupid on soooo many levels. 

OK, where are the charts - We got the SPXA50 above 400. That is the first clue we can turn. We got the NYMO ready as well. We're working on a double top with a massive negative divergence in the MACDaddy. Whatever. 

One word - event. They got your back till then. The farce is on now. The cat is out of the bag. Everyone now knows everything is fake, and yet here we sit rolling along as if the wheels did not just come flying off the car. Amazing, truly amazing. 

This so reminds me of the summer of '11, and then the ass just fell out of the market (one of STB's best calls ever).

Enjoy the weekend. 

GL and GB!

Thursday, July 11, 2013

Morning Charts 07/11/13 SPX /ES

Well, we certainly had a dull day yesterday till BB spoke and confirmed what should have been obvious, the easing won't stop anytime soon. The market reacted accordingly, and it appears off we go again. Well, that's what they want you to think. I suggest you take a gander at What Bernanke Really Said, Or How The Chairman Just Lost Control Over Policy Again

There you will find, "In a simple stroke, the Fed Chairman has undone the work of his communications of last monthThe credibility that began to emerge from the June 19th press conference is gone. There is a large segment in the investment community that believes the Chairman cannot exit this policy, and his statement about not letting markets tighten only strengthens their case. The Chairman has returned the markets to the point where he has lost control of monetary policy, again."

Translated, they can't stop easing although they must. They can't let the markets correct or they crash. The taper talk was nothing more than BS. They will ease till infinity or till the system collapses, they have no other option. Bottom line, everything we've been discussing for well over a year.

I've often noted that BB has many times warned congress to stop spending. They can't for many obvious reasons, but mainly they will all lose their jobs once their constituents have their candy taken away. This is not an option. Just look at the hell unleashed by an $84 billion sequester (that was not fully implemented), and they need to cut a trillion to balance the budget!

So what can stop the cycle? Absolutely nothing can take us from the path we are on other than the system failing, which it eventually will. They are damned if they do, and damned if they don't at this point. For years I've discussed the impossible math simply on the budget side of the equation. One trillion in income (and declining) has to support two trillion in spending, $18 trillion in debt and over $120 trillion in unfunded liabilities.

Now is there any possible way they can overcome this hurdle? That involves another STB hot topic, the direct confiscation of the near $20 trillion in retirement savings and possibly every investment and bank account in the country. After all, they are called Federal Reserve Notes. They can be taken back at any time they like. Think Cyprus, and don't laugh at those that deemed it a template. And don't forget the confiscation of gold like in the 30's (cause they surely don't have nay gold left). They are already well into the real estate grab.

Funny thing is is the problems discussed above are minuscule to the quadrillion CDS market that must be supported and perpetuated or literally everything with any value gets evaporated. Shall we also discuss the fractal lending system that has been rehypothecated over and over where the assets being lent are supported by collateral that has been promised 10 or 20 times over?

How about the fact that the US taxpayer, via Fed funding, is keeping the global financial system alive via lending our dollars to keep foreign banks solvent? The IMF and ECB and EU and the BIS all are on the verge of death without our support. Wait, don't we have enough problems here where we should be using our own fiat to support our system? The juggling act they are supporting is truly amazing, but when you can print what's necessary and control rates, that makes their job a bit easier.

Want to skip forward past the bond market, a plethora of other funding and economic issues and get to the real fear point? All those issues above and the many not mentioned pale in comparison to the salvation of world reserve currency status. Now we're deep into what's really important. Without the petro-dollar we're really sunk.

OK - I just briefly (as in very briefly) hit on the issues that exist without going into any real detail, and I left out a plethora of other financial and economic problems that persist. All that and I just skimmed the top. Like details matter at this point. If you need any further explanation you've either been living on another planet, are as ignorant as the other 98% of the nation or live in total denial. Is a solution plausible? Ain't no way and they know it. We're way past the point of no return.

The only solutions at this time involve the unthinkable and range from direct theft (Cyprus) all the way to the horrific possibility of a eugenics event. Remember, no financial crisis of this magnitude in history has not ended without a world war. Is it any wonder why the police state is rapidly expanding, and our constitutional rights are being purged? They are preparing for a grand event. They are using the market's euphoric levels and the MSM to distract us. They are relying on the complacency they have instilled in our beings. Get ready STB readers, the worst is yet to come and it scares the hell out of me.

On to the lie-

As if it matters -

Daily SPX - The high today came within 20 points of the top. That's like nothing for this crowd to over come. My inflection point and second target have come and gone. BB did what he had to to temper the taper issue. Consider that over for now I guess, who knows? Things are so screwy how anyone can get a handle on anything is beyond me. Just look up till something happens. That's about all you can do.

I'm gonna hold off trying to nail down any targets till next week. Given everything I've described this week and last, the hope of a major turn looks rather dire, but there is still one last glimmer of technical hope, the red wedge on the minis that could be overthrowing here. Other than that, and given BB's plan of action, it sure looks like 1700 is a no brainer here. I got you to 1635 and thought if that went down with the 61% retracement on the minis then a higher high would be in store. Here we are and pulling the trigger on that call makes me more ill than anything, cause it means the farce is alive and well. It means that market manipulation is as strong as ever. It means confirmation of our belief they can't let the markets correct even the slightest bit. It means nothing is real and that sucks.

More charts to come below as usual. I'll get a minis chart up in the morning as I'm on the travel computer. Speaking of travel, I have to issue yet another STB travel fail warning for tomorrow afternoon and Friday.

If you have not been reading the comments, you really are missing out on the best part of the blog. the board has been killing it. Other than RC being gone (who did briefly return last night), the conversation has never been better.

Have a good day.

GL and GB!

Wednesday, July 10, 2013

Mini Rant 7/10/13

Kinda sad, I looked thru some charts last night and did not see much of anything that excites me too much. The bear move is in serious danger. The minis have moved above the 61% retracement. The busted LT support has been taken back. The upper market resistance has been busted. The daily indicators have turned and are climbing. They are in the process of setting yet another negative divergence, but they need to hit the 1680 level before that can be confirmed. Right now it really seems like the bears have nothing left to hang on to other than the red rising wedge on the minis I showed yesterday.

Yes, the seemingly impossible may have happened yet again. It appears the central planners sucked in another group of bears to squeeze to death. Those bastards could not even let the market have any semblance of a normal correction. 38% retracement? HA! That was a bogey they set out to suck in another bunch of suckers. The taper talk? Well timed jargon to prime those waiting for the end. Well, jargon so far at least.

They have to taper, but they can't. I'm assuming it is just more this time. A bone for the weary masses growing disenchanted with the new reality everyone knows is unsustainable. Who the hell is gonna step in front of this massive money sucking train they created? Just like in the 90's under Clinton, no one is about to stop this unregulated system of greed and corruption. The first one that does, the next one to get in the Fed's way, is gonna wind up just like JFK.

Tuesday, July 9, 2013

A Reminder of Why I Hate earnings Season - 07/09/13

Ahhh, my quarterly earnings rant-

From Zero Hedge -

"Summarizing the above:
  • A week ago AA was expected to make over $0.07 (or today's result would have been a miss)
  • A month ago: over $0.10
  • In January: $0.17
  • Just over a year ago: $0.30
  • In January 2011: Q2 2013 EPS was supposed to be almost $0.70 cents"

For those long term followers of STB, you know I hate forecasting during earnings season. When the markets used to be somewhat real I would go into hibernation on definitive market calls for about a month. I would wait for AAPL to finally come and make the definitive launching beat, and then make decisions based on technicals and their lead. Most know I totally distrust the system as it was rigged before and is now more rigged than ever.

How many times have you heard me talk about them quietly lowering the earnings hurdles into QE, where no punishment is ever taken? INTC has been my favorite example of this over the years. Why no punishment? Simple, cause QE is driving the machine and up means up for everyone no matter the circumstances. Lower the hurdle on a massive POMO day and you get the benefit of the QE lift and the benefit of an easier beat later. AA is the textbook case. It's a win win for all involved, and one of the dirty secrets of their system. Healthy or sustainable? I think not.

Monday, July 8, 2013

Major, Major Market Inflection Point Right Here - Morning Charts 07/08/13 SPX /ES

OK - here is an all inclusive road map of how we got here off the top and where we stand technically right now.

Down - You had a green channel form down off the top to my 1595 target area
Up- They tried to break green resistance and did for a bit but failed creating pink upper market resistance to just above my 1640 target area
Down - Price then failed the green resistance backtest and fell back to green channel support just shy of my 1541 target at 1550.
Up - They then broke thru upper green channel resistance again (1602 my first major target)

Minis 4hr -

Minis 30m -

Up - Price backtested green chan resistance for several days (also at the 38% retracement) forming the yellow channel up before moving to upper pink market resistance line where it sits now, having missed the STB point at 1630 by a day (intersection of brown and pink).

Just above all of this is a brown rising diagonal. That is the long term bull channel support off the 11/12 low. My second major target sits at the 61% retracement and the backtest of the brown LT channel support at 1635.

Friday, July 5, 2013

Open Weekend Post 07/06-07/13

You know the drill, share the love and the knowledge.

I'll update and research what I can this weekend and post anything if I find it. Could be a very interesting week next week with the 4th behind us and earnings bout to ramp up with AA on the dock Monday. .

UPDATE: Minis charts here is the rundown. This will also be my post Monday AM as I will be traveling then.

You had a green channel down off the top
They tried to break resistance and failed creating pink upper market resistance
Price failed the green resistance backtest fell back to green channel support
They then broke upper green channel resistance again (1602 my first major target)

Minis 4hr -

Minis 30m -

Price backtested green chan resistance for several days (also at the 38% retracement) forming the yellow channel up before
Moving to upper pink market resistance line where it sits now, having missed the STB point at 1630 by a day (intersection of brown and pink).
Just above all of this is a brown rising diagonal. That is the long term bull channel support off the 11/12 low. My second major target sits at the 61% retracement and the backtest of the brown LT channel support at 1635.

If they can get price above 1635 the bears may need to run for the hills one last time. If they crack 1631 then look for 1635. If that goes start looking to 1650. Anything above 1650 and a higher high should get set. I've been speaking ove the impending volatility that is associated with major tops forming, and we're beginning to see a bunch of that. The bears are getting back in the game and the fools bulls are defending their turf.

The 1630 to 50 area will be critical for the bears to defend. We're thru the 4th and earnings season starts Monday. I think we have some really good formations to work with technically here. Once thru my 1595 floor I was hoping to get to 1541 to set a neckline for a possible right shoulder to form. Price only fell to 1553, but that was close enough.

The markets are really ready to puke up a lung here from several technical perspectives, and earnings season is set up to be yet another disaster. For over a year I had Q1 as the end game point, that failed, but in Q2 the top may have been set. There is one problem though, the Fed and the central planners remain in total control. Taper talk drives price along with the central planner's HFT algos and bots. We're dealing with a 100% rigged market here.

Back at the beginning of the blog in  2009 I stated that "this will not end till an external event our of "their" control" happens. We need that exogenous event.

Enjoy the weekend.

GL and GB.

Morning Charts 07/05/13 SPX /ES

Short day, short post.

Minis hit upper pink resistance, we have a taper off event and we're past the 4th. Could be a game on situation for the bears. I;d love to see a move to a 14 handle. The problem may be earnings. The problem is really for the admin and the Fed, cause this is the point where their lies of recovery and data manipulation are about to throw them under the bus. They can't be in a taper off situation as they say they are and have the economy in shambles. For about a year and a half I called Q1 of 2013 as the end point. It's looking like I missed that by a quarter and Q2 was the start of the end.

Minis 15m - I missed the 1630 STB point call by a day darn it (pink/brown diagonal cross). Not bad when looking into the future over a week out or more and price gravitates to a specific spot. I know they are not perfect, but their accuracy is enough to warrant serious consideration.

Minis 60m - I reworked the original rising yellow channel. 1607 is yellow channel support today, so that's the number to watch below. Above 1630 (upper pink market resistance) and 1634 (brown LT rising channel backtest and the 61% retrace off the top) are the two key numbers.

SPX 60m -

Enjoy the weekend.

GL and GB!

Thursday, July 4, 2013

July 4th, 2013

Once again, I don't think our forefathers would be proud, and I sure as hell know that they would not have given their lives (in all the wars) knowing this is what we would become.

This is a repeat link, but it is so long, filled with all the atrocities of the current administration you may have not made it completely thru the post last time I linked it. Read it and be disgusted.

Obama Fact Sheet:: Since Becoming President, Barack Obama Has… It’s All Here!

I don't know, there is something about living in a country that illegally spies on your every action, every electronic expenditure, every movement, operates the NDAA, has FEMA camps and reeducation centers, has the DHS and TSA, has purchased over 2 billion rounds of ammunition for domestic use, is working on pre-crime technology, controls and intimidates the MSM, gives illegals more rights than its own citizens and prosecutes whistle blowers as terrorists just does not seem like America anymore.

There is something about being considered a terrorist in your own country if you keep more than a seven day supply of food in your home that bothers me. Even worse is that returning veterans, those that just risked their lives to defend this nations interests (not the nation mind you - its "interests") are immediately put on a terrorist watch list. It gets worse, the whistle blowers that expose the corruption from the inside are persecuted as enemies of the state when they should be praised for exposing the corrupt core of our nation. Let's not even address our congressional "representatives" shall we, that's not even worth wasting any breath on.

Face it, this one time bastion of freedom is a mere shell of its self. The war on terror is no more than a war on us. They created the bogeyman to control us. Al CIAda is our creation along with the taliban. The powers behind and above our government (as dutifully warned about by former presidents) are apparently in their final power grab. We're in transition mode from a truly free society to debt serfdom. Soon, we will no longer generate and prosper for ourselves, we will all work for and serve the state. We will serve our masters in a controlled environment that resembles a Hollywood movie script or better yet, 1984 comes to mind.

Well, that is all true is we don't do something about it. Living in the matrix, its time to take the blue pill and wake the hell up. I know that where we are headed is not where I want the Little Shanksters to grow up, nor where I want to die. Call me a sap or whatever, but I truly love this country and what it once represented. We kicked ass. We did it right.

Until ....

Wednesday, July 3, 2013

Morning Charts 04/03/13 SPX /ES

Happy 4th eve! What great and magnificent strives for freedom we have to celebrate tomorrow. Wait, I think I've gotten that wrong. Scratch that. Reverse it. What great strides we've taken for losing all our freedoms, and what ginormous and positive steps we've taken to becoming a model Soviet police state. You gotta love the terrorist bogeyman they created so they can impose their will on us. More on this tomorrow.

A quick look at oil. My take is that the powers that be may be losing some control over their pricing prowess of the second most manipulated commodity on the planet (gold would be #1). They sunk gold and silver and have been able to maintain the equity markets The dollar has exploded and is just about to hit LT resistance at $85. The bond markets are running a muck.

It appears their ability to corral multiple markets is fading. I guess the Bernank feels a bit like a cat herder at this moment. Are the Fed's resources being spread to thin as the expanding magnitude of the inflation they say does not exist wears invisibly on their policies? Oil must be a major thorn in the central planner's side. I actually think they have done a remarkable job containing oil under $100 for as long as they have.

The turmoil in Egypt, Syria and the rest of MENA is too much to be ignored now. Supply has apparently become a real concern. Price has not gotten away from them yet, but mr. market seems to be anticipating some sort of disruption and is beginning to price in something. This can not be deemed a major breakout or anything like that just yet. The IHnS I have been showing only shows a move to $106 which is not a back breaker, but it does place oil in that over $100 bracket which will not be popular here at home.

I'm not sure why oil exploding would not be a central planner positive. We all know they do not want an economic recovery at this point. Higher oil works right into their plans for a weaker economy, total control and continued market manipulation. Bad is good remember? This is where the cat herding and all things become a bit confusing. But wait a minute, why is the market not responding to the negatives with positive price action? Is their model breaking?

Wait, PMI is kicking ass and the ADP report this morning was a big surprise - we're in total recovery mode and all is well, right? The BLS is spewing all sorts of great data that prove what a tremendous job potus and the Fed are doing. They are even talking taper. Here is the STB conundrum moment of the morning - so full recovery, all is well, taper talk - markets are sliding. That's correct as good news is bad news. But then on the bad news is good news front the markets are no longer responding to the QE4eva mantra that we all know must continue or else.

Honestly I don't think anyone knows which way is up any longer, and that is where this market stands. I believe total confusion and loss of central planning control is about to lead us to a very dark place. I think the SPX is primed for a 14 handle soon.

On to the great lie -

Well, they tried to give it the old ADP super beat rally the markets college try this morning and failure is all they got. Not good, cause this is a taper on event. Confusion reigns. Again, they are losing control and that is never good in a centrally planned environment.

Minis 4hr - Well, they did not hit my STB point nor get my so desired backtest of the busted long term rising channel support. That's OK. No big deal. This bodes well for what I expect is a rather large slide coming after the 4th. They've maintained price well enough I guess going into the holiday to keep the sheeple complacent.

Minis 30m - We enter the 5th day of range bound action between 1618 and 1593. I guess we all know where the sell and buy stops are don't we? Price is sliding down backtesting (still) the busted green falling channel resistance. This does give bully some hope still, any crack of 1595 and it may be game over.

I'll have a post up tomorrow. Not sure how deep I'll go into a rant or anything. Lord knows I could use one and they deserve a good tongue lashing (and a lot more).

Enjoy the holiday.

GL and GB!

Tuesday, July 2, 2013

Morning Charts 07/02/13 SPX /ES

We've been saying it for years here at STB. They can't stop printing, period. It does not matter anymore whether they print or not, the end result will be the same, dreadful. From ZH,

"It is somehow in this environment - when the Fed is monetizing more duration than ever on a relative basis - that the Fed believes it can wean the market off its support: a market that has never been more reliant on the Fed than it is now.

And, hence, the Fed's Catch-22: damned if you taper, damned if you don't."

Thus all we can do is sit and wait for the central planner's party to end. Till they stop (or some "event" stops them), they remain in total control of the farce they still amazingly call a market. The lies are getting thicker, heavier and more frequent. The MSM is doing all it can to appear neutral. The BLS BS is all but laughable now as well as the rest of the propagandist government data stream that comes from around the globe.

For those that missed this late in yesterday's commentary, a post that pretty much puts the cherry on top of the cake that no one seems to admit exits, New EU PlanS Will Make Every Bank Account In Europe Vulnerable To Cyprus-Style Wealth Confiscation  where they ask, "But why have they chosen this specific moment to implement such a plan?  Are they anticipating that we will see a wave of bank failures soon?  Do they know something that they aren't telling us?"

Of course they do. They know how bad things are, and they can't continue to print. They will have to take back THEIR money. Remember it is not yours. They lend it to you. This is a little known secret that no one seems to want to admit to like that cake above. And if you fools in the USA think it "can't happen here" you better think again.

On to the lie -

SPX 30m - Wedging up into the gap with some pretty heavy negative divergences. Of course none of this means anything as they will walk this dog anywhere they like at anytime. If support holds here, I think even a blind man can see where this wedge is headed.

Minis 15m - About all I have to say here is the backtest of the yellow channel support completed yesterday. This should make the bears at least a little nervous. That STB point at 35 and my second major resistance point lies just above.

Good luck out there, Thanks for taking care of things while I can't be here.

Have a good day.

GL and GB!

Monday, July 1, 2013

Morning Charts 07/01/13 SPX /ES

Reporting from the Midwest STB remote office, so this week should be a bit light in participation from me, but you will get posts with updated charts and if something blows up, I should be able to be here. STB travel crash alert is in full force. If this is to occur I assume it would be after the 4th not before when most are not paying attention. The oddest things tend to happen when I'm out of the office. The worst was when I was in paradise reporting and trying to trade the '10 crash from Honolulu. That sucked.

The three things that you need to know are 1) Inc and Mrs Inc are now the proud parents of a bouncing baby boy. 2) You must take a look at the compiled a comprehensive list of actions that have taken place since Obama took Office listed in this post. 3) KD and others hit on this in the OWP, get ready for the race wars as the Trayvon case is being promoted by the MSM as the final straw to divide this nation.

On to the lie -

Charts are from Sunday night so the minis may be a bit stale.

Minis daily - for a larger perspective. We're dealing with a major break of long term support. Most know I am addicted to the backtest. Although not necessary, I am always cautious of it and a believer that this is the best point to enter larger short positions.

Minis 4hr - Last week I was discussing a potential STB point near 1635 where pink NT resistance meets the backtest of the busted LT channel support. This spot happens early this week before the holiday. Green channel resistance has come back in play as the NT rising yellow channel support gave way (surprisingly) late Friday.