Wednesday, June 30, 2010

Shanky's GoM Report (Updated)

UPDATE: So much for the 4th of July down here. If you are thinking of coming to Panama City or really the whole panhandle, I'd think twice.

4x4's on the beach with people taking samples.

Just now saw family SWIMMING in ocean, in the rain, with a hazmat team not 50 yards from them on the beach (not to mention the oil pads floating 30 yards away). No wonder we're in this mess. We have some of the most ignorant people on the planet living here.

Looks like post Alex the emulsified oil is now rolling in. Mats of the stuff yards off of the beach as far as I can see. It will be on the beach by this afternoon I suspect. No, that is not sea foam as the government and the MSM will report.

Beef posted this nice link in comments last night with the nice warning "Warning To Gulf Volunteers: Almost Every Cleanup Worker From The 1989 Exxon Valdez Disaster Is Now Dead"

That can be verified here at She's a Exxon Valdez expert. I think we can get a lot of baseline assumptions from that incident. (and then multiply those times 100 since this oil is contained for the most part in a bowl).

We're heading home today. If I see anything else I'll get it posted.

OK, how do I convey one of the most sickening things I have witnessed in my life? How do I address the fact that there is no way in hell that I will swim in that ocean no matter what the government claims says. How do I address the fact that there may be literally no reason for me to come back down here for, say, 10 years before the toxicity of the GoM is safe enough to swim in without me having to worry about my own personal little swimmers being genetically altered? Not sure, let's see where this post goes...

I am here and I'm still alive. Sure, my feet literally burned for over 24 hours after walking on the beach barefoot the other day, but that's normal safe fine if you have the gene pool that won't allow you to get cancer from the Corexit they have generously applied to the oceans surface. Yup, those are tarballs. They are not covering my beach, but they are present. You see the tram came thru the other day carrying plenty of people in rubber boots and dressed top to bottom in hazmat gear to try and pick the beach clean to make it safe give the appearance that all is well. They even have tractors bringing in port-o-lets for the workers.

Yes, that is a tarball on Seacrest Beach. I am positive it is conveniently covered with some sort of dispersant like Corexit. You see the little A on the map? That is quite a ways from the site of the spill. Hey, I'm picking up tarballs 70 days after the rig explosion! Not to worry, only like several hundred millions of gallong of oil have been spilt (and there are billions more under the ocean), so there will be plenty more for you so squeeze should you decide to come down here.

Funny thing though, while driving to PCB (Panama City Beach) I passed a bunch of these ominous flags, but when I got within a mile of the strip they disappeared. There were no visible signs of oil on the strip or on the surface. We walked out the pier and spoke with local fisherpeople and confirmed the erratic actions of fish and the increase in the amount of fish after the spill (the fish are being forced from deep water to the shores for oxygenated water you see).

So here are the future MRK and PFE pill gobblers just soaking up the sun, surf and Corexit they can. Sure the beach is closed a mile to the West, but is sho is fine fur swimmun down here. Yup, someone hit a home run here and you know the big drug companies are just licking their chops at the opportunities they will have in the future. Never mind the oil covered pelican that was pulled from the water about two miles West of here on the same day this photo was taken. All is well safe fine. Bring your money and don't cancel that family vacation.

You see this is not just a surface problem. It is an airborne issue as well. I can prove it. Pete The Pond Man (the guy who is a water expert and has taken care of our ponds at the beach and home for several years) and I observed our pool here after an arm of Alex passed. What did we discover but floating bubbles. These are not normal bubbles. No, there was not an oil slick on the pool or any rainbow action, but these bubbles were remaining separated from the water and floating on top of it for extended periods of time.

Can't have something like an oil spill get in the way of the most idiotic populace on the planet on their way to max out their Discover Cards one more time now can we? Sadly my adventure was cut short due to Alex and the multiple inches of toxic rain we have received over the last day and a half. I did manage to get one last shot of the beach though. Nope, this is not my handy work. Apparently someone else is just as pissed as I am. I can appreciate fine art like this.

The assumption that BP has trucked in fresh sand for photos ops with the brass and the fact that yet another cleanup worker has died without probable cause is really no big deal. The issues facing the GoM becoming another Black Sea are important also, but we can fix if like former President Clinton says by just blowing it up since there is more oil down there than he ever imagined.

What to do about the economy? You do what every business does, you sick your lobbyists on Washington and plead pay for leniency in regulations like they are doing to get for an increase in the allowance of oil allowed in gulf seafood. You see, they have a plan for everything. It will all be just fine in the end.

As for claims paying, I spoke with a local shop owner (whose business she is very worried about and discovered the words 'drying up' are in her vocabulary) whose husband is an accountant. He represents a fishing business with eight boats. They have had claims filed for over a month now and after repeated filings and regulatory BS the accountant has decided that he will no longer file any more claims. the process is not worth it as his fees to the customer will eat into the claim to such a degree (cause of his time involved) that it is not worth it. So there you have it, slow play the consumer and eliminate the middleman that knows how to work the system thru attrition. Perfect!

No problems here now, the weekend of the 4th is rapidly approaching and you need to get your family down here ASAP and spend your money. Make sure you stop at a BP station (or two) on the way down as you will be contributing to the cause crime. The beaches are have been cleaned up by the troops in hazmat suits, so, sure, uh, yeah it is safe. I'm here now, not having much fun as Alex rolls overhead doing it's part to pick up the oil and disperse it over as wide an area as possible.

The best site I have found for Oil Spill related items (other than Washington's Blog) that is updated regularly and is full of fun sickening articles is HERE. This disaster is real and it is only going to get worse. I am afraid that this will be America's Chernobyl. That a large portion of the Southeast will become a wasteland and uninhabitable as the oil and dispersants become airborne and eventually kill plant life and contaminate water supplies. The economic impact on the coast line will be immense. Just wait till the RE and CRE values get crushed again and the banks that hold the mortgages get it even farther up the ass. I would not buy anything down here for any amount of money at this time. What good is a beach if you can't use it? 

Obama is quickly and quietly becoming known as President Tarball down here in the south (from Uncle Remus - Tar Baby and the Briar Patch ) Now that is a racist comment, and I do not support those at all. Just passing along that bit of knowledge. As for my opinion of the O....this is his mess and so far he's done a worse job than Bush had with Katrina. He, and the whole lot in DC, are puppets to the lobby and special interests. Their first loyalty is to find the best balance workable solution for big business that is possible. Just as in the financial crisis, their masters are driving the ship and we the people are left to pay and suffer for their greedy decisions.

Sooner than later our blood will boil over. We've almost had enough of their bullshit. I suggest they pay attention as this election year rolls along. I also suggest you invest in moving companies in the DC area, cause they will be busy moving the lot of them out this fall.

Get involved America. Now is your time. Censorship is growing. The truth is hard to come by. If we don't come together and raise our voices now, we may not get the chance.

As always, GL!

Tuesday, June 29, 2010

Time For Another Right Shoulder?

I know, Shanky, we just broke the neckline and the largest H&S is about to drop a load. OK, OK I get it, BUT hear me out. This one is worth 100 SPX points and a free trip to Vegas! No, I do not expect it to be a big RS if it even happens. Given the busted lower BB on the daily chart, the position of the 30m indicators and the severe drop today it could possibly be the set up we need for more cliff diving and to allow that larger H&S to play out. The minis appear to have developed a nice diagonal support line as well that price reversed off of later today. 
The 30m may agree that it is RS time, but then again it appears the market knows where it wants to go. If that was 1 of 3 then this set up is working for a lay up 100 point SPX fall a 3rd grader should be able to call. That is of course it doesn't just drops it's load right here.

 I gotta tell you I am feeling a bit brighter this AM as I was fortunate enough to have had dinner last night with none other than Karl Denninger. Yup, you heard that right, I called up the man and he accepted. Yes the restaurant survived the two of us in one place. I learned a lot from a man who I may refer to, in a kind way, as scary smart. He shared several thoughts on several subjects we both care a lot about, and I simply listened intently to what he had to say. Karl was even better in person than on his blog. He was funny, kind, insightful and most of all easy to understand. His delivery is excellent. If you do not frequent The Market Ticker, you should. Thanks Karl for going to dinner and it was a pleasure to get to meet you.

GL out there. I'm gonna work on the GoM post tomorrow. Not sure when I will get it out but soon. My feet finally stopped burning. I guess the dispersant finally worked it's way into my blood stream.

No HOPE At All, As Nothing Can CHANGE The Course We're On

As my level of pissedoffness grows by the minute, I read this from ZH - Obama Says He And Bernanke Agree Economy Is Strengthening. What is it gonna take for someone in a position of authority (I use that term lightly) to just come out and say, "My fellow citizens, you are fucked and there is little to no hope of an economic recovery within your lifetime, your children and their children will have to pay for the mistakes greed of the financial industry and the oil spill is going to cause a dead zone around the GoM that will be worse than Chernobyl. Forming the Socialist States of America is our only hope." I don't think that message will ever pop up on the o's teleprompter but it should.

The charade is over. Another from ZH - Big Call From Jeff Gundlach: "The US will 'Politely Default' on its Debt"  has what I have been calling for since I started this blog. Massive global default will be the only solution to this mess (and that really will be only the beginning to the recovery).

Sadly only 57% See Greater Danger In A Government With Too Much Power (Video) which makes me question what the other 43% are thinking (woops, that's the Obama crowd - sorry). Some of the people here are really stupid. Since we're talking about percents here how bout Consumers Get It, Keynesian Clowns Don't - 63% Believe Congress Should Worry More About Deficit than Boosting the Economy from Mish. This covers some of the employment issues we face. Mish is IMO hoplessly optimistic that unemployment will only reach to the 11.5% range. Shanky thinks it will get worse than that. I also have to ask, when the hell did American sheeple get educated on understanding debt?

Have no fear, another BP worker, 48, dies of “natural causes” in hotel room after cleanup duty (from Port St. Lucie, FL)  but that is no big deal. Neither is EPA opening public “Decontamination Stations”; 400 people seek medical care after visiting Florida beach.  Don't worry. All is well. Come on down and enjoy the sun and surf. Spend your money. Support those local businesses now more than ever regardless of the health consequences to you and your family.

Since we're talking oil spill, the most informative video I have  seen to date is here G4: Corexit/oil eats through boat hulls, kidneys (PHOTOS/VIDEO)  This one will make you sick. Bottom line is the GoM will be a disaster zone resembling Chernobyl sooner than later and the fallout from it could very well devastate the whole Southeast. This is some really fucked up shit and the panic surrounding it should be far greater than that of the financial crisis. Mega rant coming on this soon. 

Aside from the oils spill, we all should known that our consumer products are rigged to fail as well. What good does it do a company to design a product that would last forever? Denninger clues us in nicely to the fraud that comes from the likes of DELL in Faulty Capacitors: See, They Knew! where you get, "You are being screwed, America, by manufacturers who produced products with defective components that are necessary for both the function and safety of the devices you're using."

You know if all that is not enough, you can look into the fact FACT that Wachovia, it turns out, had made a habit of helping move money for Mexican drug smugglers.  How To Run Drug Money: Be A (Large) Bank NICE!. As it is turning out, maybe Alex Jones is the next great prophet like Nostradamus and Edgar Cayce before. Scary as hell all that he has pointed to over the years, that we all shook our heads at and disregarding for psychotic ranting is now mostly coming true.Better start paying more attention to those conspiracy theorists that follow the CFR and Builderburg. Maybe the New World Order is a real event.

I have to confess that I listen to AJ daily and would encourage you to do so as well. Get a one month subscription to Prison Planet and share it with your friends. Watch the videos and form your own conclusions. I am about 85% behind his thoughts and theories, but that is a far cry from where I was just a few years ago. Sadly AJ has been right on a lot of things for years that most of us considered unthinkable.

So there you have it, a mini rant that should aid in sending the wake up call to the sheeple. I'll have more later. It is getting to depressing to even bitch about anymore. Mad Max....maybe not (that happens after Yellowstone erupts) but really hard times are coming. 

GL! Look for the Gulf Coast Rant coming soon. This place is already a toxic dump, you just can't see it (and that's the way they want it).


Monday, June 28, 2010

If Those Triangles Break Down....

UPDATE 6/29 8:45am - Love posting something like that and waking up with the minis down 14 on China fears. LOL, who could have seen that coming, surely not a federal economist. It started at about 10 last night and was a steady fall till about 5 this AM when things leveled off. Failed bond in Europe ECB Reports Failed Sterilization Auction, Demand For Fixed Term Deposits Comes At 0.6 BTC is the real deal. We're waiting on one of those here Watching Alex churn up the toxic soup that was once the GoM this morning. I'll be here pretty much all day if.

OK, the report from the gulf will be juicy (from what I see there is no way in hell you would get me in that ocean no matter what the government stooges say). I'll try to have as many photos and first account stories as I can get. Also, I am going to have cocktails with a super renowned blogger tomorrow after the close. Can't wait to glean some knowledge.

The 30m charts and the triangle possibly breaking down do not look good, especially with the dailys still bearing down. The 60m look to be bottoming, but you know I hate the 60m charts. I have resided to following only the 30m charts as that seems to be the safest rout to play things these days. They never topped sufficiently this go round, but the MACD looks particularly nasty and a bear cross there is usually a great sell signal following those divergences. The RUT appears to be leading the way with the WLSH. RUT did not form nearly as clean a triangle as on the other major indexes (which can be seen in the 30m section of my chartbook - link on right). If that lower blue diagonal lets go look out. No, I did not move the target arrow, check it in below post.


Friday, June 25, 2010

Like I Said, I'm Just Gonna Stick With The 30m Charts From Now On

Monday Morning UPDATE - No post this AM as we're headed to the beach. I may post something this afternoon and will get something out tonight for sure. I'm really looking forward to reporting on the destruction of some of the United States most beautiful beaches. The Little Shankys may even get in on the action as they are pretty pissed about their beach being destroyed. As for the market, follow the charts below. I'm thinking the divergences should have some meaning and should produce a pop, but remember that the reversals of late have been hard and fast with little signaling them.

Yesterday I said to look out for divergences on the 30m. I got a 12 point pop and then, boom. Today we got a 15 point pop and.....we'll have to see. Here are a slew of charts with targets. I'm still confused as to what or where the daily indicators are and why. Weeklys are in the same boat. They are screaming down and yet we get this action? The 30m divergences (all the green lines under the indicators leading to the vertical buy line) that I love so much screamed yesterday to buy and with the fall into the close got even stronger signaling this turn. Hate to say it, but these moves may become intraday and non sustainable pops that we have to get used to. Manipulation at it's finest. 

Not much comment necessary, I'm sticking with this time frame for a while as it seems to have been the most reliable for several months now. All charts (plus some for the 30m ETF's - not always as updated) can be found in my chartbook. Sorry if some are not fresh. Market is moving very quickly. First targets are green rectangles. For you fans of the larger H&S forming, this may be your ticket.

For those of you that want a fresh primer video explaining divergences with this price action you are seeing and how they effect price action (and why I scream every time I see one) please watch this video from MarketClub.

Enjoy your weekend. I'll be reporting from the GoM next week and will have pictures and updates for all from what I find. We're not really looking forward to the mineral bath. The Little Shankys and I will build a massive Mayan temple aligned with the appropriate stars in the sand to try and hex the monsters of the golf, BP. Will have pics for sure. Looking forward to getting you some real news.

SPX - Nearing blue wedge target, but a ways from my first target.

COMPQ - Possibly the cleanest wedge of the charts. 200ma or gap fill possible. 50/200ma should bear cross today.
INDU - Lagging and possibly in the worst position based on my charting of individual stocks in the index. Awesome throwunder of the wedge, but indicators still look like crap. Can't seem to get any momo here.

RUT - has been leading and is already at my first target.



Thursday, June 24, 2010

Dailys Look Like Crap

OK, so the divergence call below worked for a nice 12pt corrective pop. In a normal market that would have been brilliant, here, LOL, not even worth a days pay.  So much for that. I had fun playing in TNA and TZA all day playing the 1m chart. I do know I was not the only bright mind expecting a higher pop today for this corrective. Now the 30m divergences are really popping and the 60m is bottoming, but I am finally a believer in where the dailys are headed. DOWN. This morning I gave the 1050 range for a bottom and now I'm thinking there is a possibility of it being worse. A lot worse if I 'm right on where I finally think we are in the scheme of things. (came a step closer to that with the form and function of today's action.)

I'm assuming the charts are foretelling a bad consumer confidence number and GDP report in the morning. I believe the corrective has ended and the move today possibly confirmed that. A bet on manipulation would be in order if the volume is low in the AM, but I have a sneaky feeling this market is possibly about to puke up a lung. Again, confusion reigns not only at Shanky's but at other respected sites as well. The market (er the bots, excuse me) have done a miraculous job fending off the news of the impending double dip in housing and the plethora (Soros et all) of other bad data. They can't keep this pace up. Something has to give sooner than later one would think. On the other hand, were dealing in a 100% controlled environment, so you take what you can get I guess.

So, let's remain with a watchful eye on the form of the fall and follow the dailys to the bottom and see what happens there. Worst case scenario is they embed and we have to wait on the weeklys to come down as well. Lord help me it this thing whipsaws again. Maybe I get that 1020 to 1000 I was looking for with this fall originally anyway. 

As always, GL!

Keep An Eye On the Possible Diverdences Forming.

The 30m charts may be setting up a nice buy situation. Keep an eye out just in case. If not now it may be soon. This is a dangerous spot (as is any in this market) to look long esp with GDP coming out tomorrow and the bad news coming in droves. Keep those stops tight. I'm long TNA from 41.31 at this time and may exit some soon. Gong long now is like when we used to try to short it over the past year. A nasty thing to try and punch a hole against the trend. Be nimble and quick if you do or the pain you felt on the way up will be just the same on the way down.

Morning Post, SPX, S&P 500, e-mini

Minis down 6 and I think it is gonna get worse. The downward pressures on the market will become to much to bear. The markets have been amazingly resilient given the news especially over the past two days. We'll know the jobs numbers before the open and then tomorrow we get the GDP numbers. With earnings season getting kicked off the next month should be very interesting. If you are a bull, I hate to say it, but the run to glory and the V shaped recovery is over. The next talk (venom) to be spewed by CNBS will be the W shaped recovery. remember you heard that here first. W a million more times than you have heard VVVVVVV. Shanky says there will not be a letter that can define this recovery cause there will not be a recovery for a long time. With over 13 trillion in debt (and growing) and noting to show for it so far, a war about to get going and the greatest environmental disaster in history just now getting cranked up,  how can you expect anything else?

Earnings Calendar - Yup, it is that time of the year again. We still have till mid July before it gets really going. That may play into some pricing action over the next week or two if revisions start coming out.

Economic Calendar - Durables, Oil and Natgas this am. GDP and Cons Sentiment tomorrow. Not sure what BS the BLS will try to throw at us this time, but I suspect more worthless lies from another discredited government agency.

Pivot points - Not sure they matter much with the range these days.

Really not sure which chart to deliver this morning as most (with me) are struggling to get a grasp on where the market is in time and trend. Has it topped for what the EWTers would call 2? Has 1 even bottomed yet? Is this just completing a B wave of the corrective and are the bulls gonna pull out another 100 point run on the SPX to complete it? That is the way it measures.

Right now the trend is down and the news is horrific, so you gotta stick with it for that reason. I pretty much got my 1090 call yesterday, but it should have been worse given the housing data that the HFT bots are ignoring, cause they do not trade on emotion or with any regard for fundamentals. These are some wacky times for sure.

I'm gonna go with the daily chart needing to bottom out once again. Barring a GDP or jobs surprise it is possible that the 1050 level could be in the cards here. The big question still being, has this move bottomed or not. I never got my 1020 to 1000 number I wanted for the low. The support at the 1090 level is proving to be stout, the 30 and 60m have/are bottoming or embedding, and the dailys never really topped out which all should be heeded as a bear. I don't like the call, but I think it is the right one. With either the corrective being still in play or the turn being finally in, I can't say till the markets make it more clear.

This 60m chart shows another possibility I am looking at for this corrective.


Wednesday, June 23, 2010

Nothing Good In The News (Is There Ever?)

Uh, how bout that 12 point spike in 7 minutes on no news, basically totally without merit? And some say the markets are not busted or rigged. I'm guessing some traders took a late lunch,  programmed some algos to go off 10 minutes after the FOMC announcement and BAM a 1% move. Now that is funny. Of course it gave it all back and more in the next 30 minutes. Simply amazing stuff. Of course if they tried to investigate what caused the move the SEC would never be able to conclude who or why it happened (although you can track each trade back to a specific ticket).

I've been warning about not only the global default train coming, but also the financial contagion that will spread amongst our states and municipalities. I would like to congratulate the most corrupt state in the land, Illinois (the one that spawned Rham and the Omeister and the likes of the Jackson family) in bypassing Cali and over half the PIIGS in the race to top the most likely to default list. Illinois cracked the top 10 landing at number 8 on the hit list with a near 25% chance of default. Mish has Investors Fly Into Municipal Bonds Like Moths to a Flame where you find, "Investors badly burnt in the stock market crash have been attracted to municipal and junk bonds like moths to a flame. It remains to be seen if states will default, but to escape untenable pension obligations I believe they should." Ouch, I really appreciate Mish for picking up the local angle and shining a light were few are willing to go.

I have always had trouble reding the Fed statements and making sense of them. Thank goodness for Denninger. He has a way of putting these things into a form of English I can understand and relate to. I guess someone gave him the secret decoder ring. In Federal Reserve Statement In English Karl cuts thru the crap and gets to the point. Mainly, "Nobody in their right mind would hire anyone with the economy this crappy and the only consumer and business spending that is taking place is coming from the nipple of a government tit.  Businesses are taking seller-financed OptionARM equipment deals, which will soon start bankrupting the firms that were idiotic enough to do that" Nice! It gets even better. Please give it a read.

In Black Gold From The Heavens: Oil Rain In Louisiana? Zero Hedge pulls from the RT (why does the RT always report real news here better than our own MSM?) Now, this one can possibly be dismissed as some pummeled Cajun wanted some web time and threw out a few quarts of 30/10 in the yard. But, if it is real, the damage is now spreading inland. Talk about massive pollution. How about the whole Southeast gets quarantined eventually. Think BP will be writing a check for that? BP is toast. I'm terribly disappointed in the administration for the way they have lackadaisically handled the whole fiasco.

Prag Cap has SOROS: THE EURO IS A FLAWED CONSTRUCT Nothing like having a billionaire investor activist come down on a whole regions currency. I have to believe there is some truth in what he is saying. Eventually the truth will come out and everyone will see the light. Sadly at that point it will be to late in the game though.

Calculated Risk is always the place to go for anything regarding RE. They cover New Home Sales collapse to Record Low in May really well and shine the light on the misery of the double dip to come (just without the flair of ZH).

We get blessed with an enormous day of market movers tomorrow all starting with the unemployment report in the morning. the big news may be Friday a.m. with the GDP number. Not sure how they will put one of those out without a budget director or a budget for that matter in the future. Maybe they'll simple outsource it to GS, they alwasy seem to have the numbers in advance anyway.


Morning Post, SPX, S&P 500, e-mini

Still undecided. We have to watch the form of the fall and see where it takes us. I would love to say we're headed straight down from here (and we certainly deserve to), but I just can't go there. The daily charts are the source of my confusion and inability to commit. I'm not seeing any valid reason for a turn here quite yet even though markets are very oversold NT. Look for the 1090 area for a possible turn spot. If that gets abused I'll be reconsidering my thoughts.

I'm reverting to my 30m SPX chart where I know I can maintain accuracy on the NT moves. That is a particularly nasty move in the MACD histogram. While oversold, this chart is not ready to turn quite yet, but it may be soon. Price has already made lower lows taking out the 1106 support. Lets see what it does with the gap below and the 1090 low. That is a massive move to get to the gap in the 1050's, just not seeing that at this time, but who knows, all it takes in this market is the right bit of bad news to send everyone scrambling.
I'll post an update when I see this chart give a buy signal. Minis are up 3 at 2:15, and I'm going to bed.


Tuesday, June 22, 2010

Houghson, We Have A Problem.

This one got a bit long - sorry. 

Oil spill, War, Immigration, Mexico in a state of anarchy, Budget gaffe, Housing data, Financial fraud, there are so many choices. No telling what's gonna happen tomorrow. Bottom line is the country is being destroyed and the administration is the ring leader.

The unbelievable, unimaginable and unfathomable is happening all around you. Our country is being ripped apart piece by piece by this administration. Whether you are liberal or conservative these issues should not be ones that continue to divide us, but they should be binding us together. The saddest and most despicable part of this whole ordeal is that we the sheeple are not doing one damn thing to stop this freight train of doom from running off the cliff. To those that are in the streets and burning up the phone lines to DC, I thank you.

For the Obama supporters that are left out there, you better wake up. This S.O.B is destroying our country and we need to get him out of office yesterday. A good number of us knew it was a mistake when he got elected, but we had no real clue just how bad it would get. Now before I get into this don't start screaming Shanky is a racist. This has noting to do with race anymore. It has everything to do with the supposedly most powerful man on the planet being a bought and paid for pawn for the elite that is an ignorant, inexperienced, racist, radical that possibly delights in destroying the State and apparently is delighting in enforcing his will/ideals on the nation. I'll leave religion out of this argument for now, but there will be a time soon that we'll all be looking for that hot line to God. Not sure if our muslim leader has one of those.

Will someone please put out an APB for the American Spirit? Sadly the problems all lie with us the sheeple. Sadly American politics delivered ZERO electable officials (not a surprise really) and this moron won by default cause he's slick, can read a teleprompter and can lie with the best of them. So, we the sheeple, elected this butt head to be our president. Why? I guess after what the Bush cabal left in it's wake, we were really desperate and so we voted for change. Sounded sensible (to the entitled sheeple that wanted the free ride to go in forever), till reality hit.

Reality is that when Clinton and Greenspan took down Brooksley Borne and got the deregulation train rolling we were doomed ever since. Bush only further entitled the special interest power over DC. Throw in 9/11 , a couple of inexcusable wars (as I now view them), the Patriot Act and the takeover of DC was completed. Need I mention the Fed? Bernanke IS the president. He is in reality the ruler of the world. the only person he answers to is the man behind the curtain. He holds (along with GS) all the chips. Our Constitution has been rewritten to favor those in power to make in reality any decision they want regardless of the best interest of the people. Sadly America has been raped and pillaged and those in DC over the past three administrations are all accountable for these actions. Our freedoms have been wiped out with the economy. We have now lost everything.

Lost everything? Shanky, come on, that is a bit extreme don't you think? No I don't think so. I think know our government is now controlled by special interests (I'm leaving most conspiracy theories in the closet for now - when the time is right I'll break those out, cause to those that are not informed and do not dig - you do not know - it is far WORSE that I am beginning to mention here). Look at the rigged markets. Everything since 2008 has been a joke, especially since the bottom of March in '09. 100% winners every trading day for the whole quarter for GS? PUH-lease. Marked to fantasy assets? How bout the BP oil spill? Who the hell is running the show in the gulf 60+ days after this disaster? What the hell is being done down there other than allowing them to try and find a way to extract the oil? Can't just leave those billions of gallons of oil down there now can we? Health Care bill? Shall I continue?

The worst example of how disconnected this administration is from the people (barring everything related to our financial future, the handling of the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq (and a new one coming to a country near you soon for no good reason other than to further the power of the political machine that can not be stopped and to further distract you from reality) and a slight problem in the GoM not to mention many other issues) is probably occurring in AZ right now. You see the welfare state must grow. You must rely on the government for everything. The people of AZ (and now NE) are fed up with the illegal immigrants and I do not blame them.

Shanky's quick take on the subject - if you come here legally, you are welcome all day long. Welcome, love to have you, but if you are illegal and abusing the system - GET THE FUCK OUT OF MY COUNTRY! We can not afford to feed the world anymore. We have to protect our jobs. We have to guard every dime we have now. Allowing those that sneak under a fence and have a bay the next day to be able to live here on welfare forever more is fucking insane.

To know that portions of AZ are sealed off to American citizens because it is to dangerous for us to travel in those areas because they are controlled by Mexican drug cartels is absolutely unfathomable. What is even more unimaginable is that apparently this administration does not give a shit and has declined federal assistance to solve the problem. Yes, Mexican drug lords coming to a state near you and you can't do a fucking thing about it, so we'll just give them a huge chunk of land to operate from cause they are immigrants that we can't fucking touch cause our government is a bunch of liberal fucking pussies.

So AZ writes some laws regarding immigration to seal their boarder and our president sues to have them reversed? What the fuck? Who the hell could have dreamed up this bull shit scenario. Wait, it gets better! Obama, according to Senator Kyl, is holding the boarder hostage in order to get what he wants in the immigration bill. Not kidding, you can't make this stuff up (I'm not even sure and LSD induced trip could make up something this wild).

He honestly may be the last president we ever have cause at this rate state secession is coming, and if not my ass is moving to Vancouver. IBD has a nice post on Is U.S. Now On Slippery Slope To Tyranny? While their investment advice is timely and good, this article is about 18 years late. We've been on the road to a fascist state for some time now and the current administration has put it in overdrive to get us there. I'm afraid that there is no reversing our course right now. We have lost our will to fight.

As I have mentioned before, our forefathers would be severely disappointed in us as a nation and if they knew they were gonna fight and die so we could become a bunch of entitled spoiled brats, I don't think they would have fired a shot if they could have seen into the future. We should be ashamed of what we have become. We the sheeple have become sedate slugs controlled by entitlements and brainwashed by the media and educational system. They have us right where they want us. Next, they will take over the internet (note to my government handler that reads my stuff daily - I hope you like your job spying on other American citizens - this is of course you are not in an outsourced job in India or the Phillipines - I hope you feel like crap after reading this and wake the hell up and realize who you are working for), so enjoy my posts while I'm still allowed to practice free speech in a nation as a free person.

Please get involved and try to make some noise. Please call your representative and let your voice be heard. Please discuss all the issues with your friends and family. We do not have much time. This election season is quite possibly the most important ever and will most likely decide the fate of this nation. Virtually everyone in DC must go (except Ron Paul - the man who should have been president - of course). They have us right where they want us, divided right down the middle. We must find common ground to stand on so we can fight this fight. Well, your freedom should be enough to accomplish that. This is no longer a game. This is real and our freedoms depend on everyone coming together and taking back our country. Freedom is something we should appreciate and respect, not take for granted like we do. Now is our turn to fight for it, cause if we don't all will be lost.

As always thanks for the views and have a good one.

Tough Call

I know, after that move today how can you contemplate a sell off not being upon us? Well, after my really solid call against the rising grain last night about the fall today I'd sure hate to miss this one. So, with a bit of angst I'm entering the twilight zone with this one.

I just can't bite on this climb being over yet. Maybe my chart reading prowess has dulled in my time off. What I am not seeing are clear signs a bigger turn is in on the dailys. Sure, the RSI may be finally turning at the wave 1 divergence line and some of the indicators are at a point they could be ready. That is why making this call may be going against the grain somewhat. The 30 and 60m charts are not ready to turn up just yet. The divergences were a layup call last night and made for easy pickings today (yes incarnate, TZA was the bomb).

Let's look at a daily chart so you can see my doubt. This chart is best viewed HERE. This is my daily indicator chart. It loads up all sorts of stuff in one place so you can see the whole picture. First with the boxes - blue is caution, red is sell and green is buy. I see no red on this chart, just blue and green. I noted the NYMO last night and it is now falling for sure, but on the other hand MACD and RSI are not ready. Also some of the others have not reached their top sell lines (red vertical on the top of each indicator) at this time. Sure, none of these things have to happen. It could just drop as it should. If it does, so be it. That candle today could qualify as a reversal, but not really. The 200ma support caught price and the VIX is resting on it's 200ma with a nice reversal candle (but a tempting TL still below).

Another thing is I'm not comfortable with the position of some of the indicators on the weekly chart quite yet. The 60m still has room to fall (but you know I hate that time frame). The 15 and 30m have not gone buy yet either. So why the bother? It should keep on falling right? Well, this is opex week for one (it isn't that was a mistake thanks to TTM for pointing that out) and the markets are manipulated as well. The initial reaction to the Yuan unpeg was a unique event that caused an already overbought market on the shorter time frames to become even more so.

My CPC chart adds to my conundrum cause it is in buy mode as well. (yes Rich, even the CPCE has me tied up as well.) What the heck is happening here? Will it continue to the top to complete the wave 1 the way it did in P1 and get to those same levels (the level of the move here is quite similar to that of P1 at this point). Will it stop here? It is falling which indicates buy mode and is a long way from any sort of sell signal (unless it is still in sell mode?). Is it forming new ranges for P3? (blue box). Time will tell and it will divulge the secrets when it is ready, but till then we have to be patient and let the charts come to us. 
Sadly the market is not showing me any clear reasons to go out on a limb and scream sell. Even the down volume indicators were not all that hot today. It could be a great short opportunity and the charts may whipsaw here and go where they should, but technically I can not bless any sort of larger move south here. Sell catalysts pop up multiple times daily these days and we all know the world of hurt the global economy is in.

There is one thing that could make me lean south. There were two TL's on the minis that held the upside move today nicely. the retracement to 1106 was an easy call as the minis had blown out their VWAP BB and retraced right to the VWAP like clockwork at 1106. I'll keep an eye on those lines just in case.

Yes, this is a long journey with lots of twists and turns and maybe I'm getting a little greedy in my anticipation of what I want to see. Price has a way of humbling us and maybe after my hot streak over the past ...year, maybe I'm due to watch a couple of good pitches cross the plate. I'm gonna stick with what got me here though. Bottom line is we have to play the cards we are dealt. I like to anticipate the hand, but you all know I won't place a bet till the river card usually shows its self. I'd much rather nail it than make a mistake.

So, I have to kinda cop-out on a definitive call. I gave you the fall today, so cut me a little slack please. let's see what form it takes and go from there. Maybe it whipsaws at this point and the bottom simply falls out, but on the other hand with opex and the manipulation trade you never know.

GL! I'll post something if I see it.

Monday, June 21, 2010

There Is No Bridge Over These Troubled Waters

The informal Shanky Pole conducted on the cruise and at the ports concludes that about 1 in 20 actually have a clue as to the troubled waters we're sailing in. The swales may only be 5 to 10 feet now, but the 30 to 40 footers are coming. Without injecting my venom in most, I simply left the conversations with a simple "watch out" warning.

Yes, the moronic, lazy, self-absorbed American public will be in for a rude awakening sooner than later. The MSM they all trust has promoted government lies and falsehoods about the "V shaped recovery" to the point that most are going about business as usual totally blind to the facts that surround the impending disaster. The fact that you are here reading my blog (or reading anything educational or involving current events other than puts you light years ahead of the rest of the populace.

The multitude of problems are real and they are expanding at an exponential rate. As pointed out by many every financial catastrophe of this magnitude has ended in some sort of war. With us sending 11 U.S. warships through Suez Canal en route to Red Sea... and with the troops already in place in the middle east all we have to do now is wait (for what I presume will be) for Israel to make the first move. Apparently control of the oil is and was what these wars were all about from the beginning many years ago. Given BP's power over Washington as exhibited in the last 60+ days, you can't question the power of big oil anymore. Is it an oxymoron for the most powerful man on the planet being a muslim to be Israel's greatest protector? (just another of the many conflicts of interest that exist in DC)

Those that have been reading here know that the reflation trade was doomed from the beginning. The great consumer is dead, cause they were defrauded and robbed of all of their assets and savings all while borrowing insane amounts of money they can never pay back. Without the great consumer, global trade dies. Economies then dry up and as global expansion becomes contraction job losses mount and the welfare states become even more prevalent. 

Denninger posts some good stuff, but this one I really liked Spend Now, Save Never.In his pummeling of Krugman there is this nugget, "There is no hope for rising revenues until the excessive debt is defaulted or paid down.  Since it can't be paid down with a depressed economy, it has to be defaulted.  There is no other option." Hello, what has your Shanky been saying all along? Massive global default will be the only way out of this mess. The hole the global financial system has dug is deeper and wider than an oil slick in the Gulf (separate massive post coming on that topic soon)..

We can't borrow anymore to fund our excesses and to hide the mismanagement and fraudulent investment scams of the banksters and Wall St. They have sucked everything out of the turnip. Of the trillions they have thrown at the wall nothing has suck, even the government sponsored refinancing programs are failing as the banks aren't making ninja loans anymore Borrowers face foreclosure after Obama loan assistance program fails to provide help and Obama's Home Affordable "HAMP" Program a Failure; Another Huge Wave of Foreclosures Coming The housing double dip is going to be a total disaster as there is nothing they can do to stop the next fall. Sure, they can take the shadow inventory to even loftier levels, but if the consumer is dead and the banks are not lending it is game over.

Mish has been the king at covering everything from the State angle. If you have not, please read States Take Aim at Pension Costs; Public Employee Unions on the Defensive; Chris Christie's Freight Train; No One Wants to be Christie's Next Piñata (and browse his other posts while there). Don't let the global meltdown distract you from the contagion that is spreading from state to state. They can't borrow anymore to fund pension or state budget deficits like they became so accustomed to doing. Sure, about half of the states appear they will be just fine this year as they raid the last of the rainy day stashes to make budget ends meet, but next year will be the real storm and where the real cuts will have to be made. A good friend of mine is a state rep here and he said next year is going to be really tough to get the budget balanced without severe cuts. Anyone out there have a clue as to what effect state government budget cuts will have on the overall economy? You wait till the muni-bond market starts to have more defaults. The discrepancy in price between the better and bad bonds is just now starting to get a little out of hand.

To those of you looking for an EXIT sign that still have money invested in stocks, bonds, mutual funds or retirement plans, this top will be the last and best exit for a long, long, long time. Odds of your private pension funds or benefits being controlled by the state within the next few years are very high. To those of you still thinking about a V shaped recovery or that America will recover and be better than before cause "that's what American's do" better wake the hell up.

America is TOAST. The American way is gone possibly forever barring a massive revolt of the people to retake our government. America as a socialist state "cause that is better for everyone" is here. The times of entitlement that led us here will become the norm except for us providing for ourselves (well, over borrowing and using up every ounce of credit on the planet) all will now be provided by The State. Being an entrepreneur is no longer a personal benefit, but a benefit to The State.

The State will own everything. Your Constitution resembles the late Michael Jackson now. It has had so many face lifts it no longer represents the people. It has been rewritten to protect those in power, and the hand placed Supreme Court is there to protect those in power and the special interests - not you. Those that wrote that once great document knew these troubles would come and warned us against them.

Thomas Jefferson said it best, "If the American people ever allow private banks to control the issue of their currency, first by inflation and then by deflation, the banks and corporations that will grow up around them will deprive the people of all property until their children will wake up homeless on the continent their fathers conquered." —Thomas Jefferson, letter to Albert Gallatin, 1802.

Or this one, "I am one of those who do not believe the national debt is a national is calculated to raise around the administration a moneyed aristocracy dangerous to the liberties of the country." —Andrew Jackson, letter, April 26, 1824.

Possibly my favorite - "Since I entered politics, I have chiefly had men's views confided to me privately. Some of the biggest men in the United States, in the field of commerce and manufacture, are afraid of something. They know that there is a power somewhere so organized, so subtle, so watchful, so interlocked, so complete, so pervasive, that they better not speak above their breath when they speak in condemnation of it."
—Woodrow Wilson, 1913

I guess FDR got Woodrow's message and confirms Jackson's fears - "The real truth of the matter is...that a financial element in the large centers has owned the government ever since the days of Andrew Jackson..."
—Franklin Delano Roosevelt, 1933

Any questions? Are the words of former Presidents enough to convince you of the history behind the corruption and power that control our government?
And one that may be most useful today - "What this country needs — what every country needs occasionally — is a good hard bloody war to revive the vice of patriotism on which its existence as a nation depends." —Ambrose Bierce, letter, February 15, 1911

GL and thanks for the views. Glad to be back!

Sunday, June 20, 2010

I'm Back!

OK, let's get it on! Shanky is back in the saddle and ready to rock. Problem is the HFT bots seem to have found their wings and have risen from the dead. I guess now every individual left in the markets, with a brain, understands the ramifications of what is coming down the road. Thus, the bots only have themselves to trade with in an incredibly low volume environment, so they shoot fish in a barrel and the market goes up.

Minis are up over 7 at this time (10:30). (Now up 14 at 11:30.) (LOL 15.5 now - the minis high was 1116!). The Yuan unpeg is being greeted in the Asian markets with glee! My sell call looked great for a few days and then Thursday got me. The only problem lies with the daily chart and what those indicators intend on doing. I'm a little concerned based on the position of some of the indicators, but further upside should possibly be limited if it happens (I got an 1150 tentative target right now, but that is not set in stone). The NYMO is over it's sell line and some of the others indicators are topping out, but there are some indicators that are not ready (not near ready at this point).

This is where the guessing game comes into play. Just how high can the bots take the market this time? The 30 and 60m charts have some dastardly divergences screaming sell, but that does not matter to the bots. The market has remained overbought on a ST basis for over a week now. It all depends on the daily indicators now (and when the next horrific news story pops up). We all know what is coming. Maybe they are pumping what they can out of it one last time. We all know this top will be the last great exit for years (possibly decades).

What about this corrective down are we looking for? The way Shanky likes to do things is look for patterns to form. This method serves me well, cause the earlier you can find it, the better you'll be at measuring every move thereafter (thus my wedge to the top and a timely top call - I was the first I know of to call it, label it and nail it). At this time we're in the development stage of defining the top TL and some of the interior TLs that will reside in the indicators on the major charts for this wave down. The charts are a mess right now. I'm struggling to pick up both NT resistance and support lines that I am comfortable with. The market has been really sloppy. So we're looking to see how this corrective tops out and what marks it leaves on the map to the promised land (if that is what you call hell).

So I go into a conservative short mode here. Looking for a turn, but not THE turn. Let's call it a B wave in the corrective. I think the first wave is in. When I made the timely buy call from the lobby in Denali the dailys were set with divergences. How high this corrective gets is the question. It could be topping here. Up is pure insanity, but it has been for well over a year now. The markets are rigged, we all know that. Thus, the danger still lies in calling against the bots.

I am not ready to call a larger move south here just yet. Let's get the daily MACD back over the 0 line and a few more pieces in place before we look for a larger move technically. The waiting game will also incorporate the indicators on the weekly charts. The only danger that lies in waiting on technical confirmation is that the next serious fall, given the global environment, can happen at any time. That is OK since everyone here is looking down, but not OK if you are trying to time a great entry. We all know the right entry will lead to greater profits, but the correct entry will lead to consistent profits. Let's make sure we get it right.

I'm sticking with a corrective move down sooner than later. My 30m signals rarely lie. I hate the 60m chart, but it is saying NT overbought as well. The bots had a nasty way of embedding these on the way up and they may be back to their old tricks. I like to let the dailys complete their cycles and they may be close. Have patience.So I'm saying down (yes, even with the Yuan thingy happening) then up to the top near 1150 at this time (but that target is not set in stone - Let me get back into a rhythm and try to give you something better).

I'll have a rant or two coming soon. The markets and the oil spill are both total bullshit. I'll be charting gold, NG, oil and the dollar (how bout that $89 Shanky target? (Bueller, Bueller, anyone?) Missed it by a quarter and called it a long time ago. Maybe that game is not over yet though.

Housekeeping - My Morning Posts will be sporadic thru the summer. I'll either get something out at night like now, something in the am before the bell or nothing at all. With every night now a Saturday night I'm planning on enjoying life for a month or two. I updated a ton of charts in the chartbook while watching the Open today. I hope all had a great Father's Day. I'm back till we head out for Colorado for the 4th, but I'll be working from there without much interruption.

GL and thanks for all the views and support!

Wednesday, June 16, 2010

Ugly? You Ain't Seen Nothing Yet (And A Sell Signal)

Yet another hit and run from the man paying by the minute to play on the internet. Charting is becoming difficult on the high seas as I'll update a chart and then when it gets submitted to Stockcharts it gets rejected. Now that is annoying, but not as annoying as, say, one big ass lied about oil spill or, say, a huge fucking financial problem that is about to launch the world into a Mad Max sequal scenario. LMAO, I'm on a cruise with a bunch of others taking it to the grave or charging it off on Uncle Obama's tab. You all remember that Youtube vid with the black lady in the auditorium saying she would never have to worry about her mortgage or paying for anything ever again? OMG, we all laughed. Who the fuck is laughing now?

Gold schmold. If you want to buy physical, come to Alaska. Every friggin port has gobs of the stuff for sale. Little Shanky (1) and I played catch with a 6oz nugget in Skagway the other day. Really. Mama Tuohy (that would be Mrs. Shanky as she favors and acts a lot like the character) was not pleased with her children acting in such a manner. What do the goldmeisters of the North say about the shiny yellow metal? I was pleased to find that many agree with me. It is a great thing to trade, but not such to own. Bottom line is who will be able to afford to buy it from you at $5,000 per ounce (well, that is not on Uncle O's dole)? Seeds and ammo baby. Seeds and ammo will be the ticket. I'll be adding a seed add soon, look for it. Nope, not kidding.

Given the previously mentioned charting issues, I'm not posting one. I've been updating what it would take to barely stay on top of things. Visit the chartbook at the link on the right. The tough part of the call here will be to see if the dailys complete their cycle to the top or will they fall short at the set divergence line (like right NOW). See the pink box on RSI5 on my first chart. Begin to look for a turn in the MACD hist and there you should have confirmation of your next short entry. 60m chart looks really nasty. I just put a potential sell pole (one of those long vertical red thingys) on it.

Screw it, I just went and put a sell signal on my 30m Short chart. Not sure if this is the big one here or just a bull flag on this corrective. Here is the problem, never forget it is a bullshit, manipulated, low volume HFT driven market. Not sure who is left trading. Thus, danger to the short siders still exists. Not like it once did, but it is still there. I have no open positions, but if I were at my desk I'd begin to look here. I can't have naything open where I am. The 30m long and short sections of the chartbook have not been updated, but I plan on getting to those in Vancouver.

Last day at sea. Docking in Vancouver tomorrow at 8am. There for two nights then home. I have several regulars from there and would love some hints on what to see. We have pretty much done it all up here. Alaska is an amazing place. Wish I had more time to clue you in on everything I have done. I am very greatful to have had the chance to experience this wonderful state.

Hang in there. I have A LOT to bitch about and am thinking of some new things to get us all more involved with changing America (if that is even possible, but we'll go down bitching like hell if not). I'll get a photo of the little Shankys in their new BP is B.S. and BP Sucks T-shirts and post it soon. Visit th chartbook in the $SPX are for the recently updated.

Thanks for all the comments and continued visits (and even some donations) in my abscence. My buddy Incarnate did a nice job in pleading for your assistance to pay for this excursion and it worked! Actually I would like to think it had something to do with my long call from last week.

Take care, FUCK BP! and GL!

Saturday, June 12, 2010

Is The Bull Still Alive? Mini Rant And a Trip Update.

Tough question. Divergences are to great to ignore on the 30 and 60m. If I had been watching the market Friday Afternoon instead of the Hubbard Glacier I would have had a few choice things to say. It appears in my absence the manipulators are still well entrenched. and have not missed a beat. I hope most of you heeded my (apparently unpopular to some) up call from earlier this week.

I'll become a crowd pleaser again now and call for a move down early in the week, but do not get to excited. The severity of this move I do not know yet. Possibly a lower low, but I'm not guaranteeing that. The daily charts have recovered some but have not cycled to the top yet. They do not have to of course. My conservative nature would like to see that. Here is the deal. I called for wave one or the first leg of this move down to end at a backtest of the busted upper bear market TL. The weekly chart last week put in a reversal candle off of that TL. With the dailys in their posture and the weeklys nearing what could be a near term low point (not to mention several other factors). my bearishness is being questioned (near term of course). Remember I am handicapped somewhat in not having compleeted my normal full analysis of the charting universe. My keys now are pretty basic and not super detailed.

I updated some of the $SPX charts in the chartbook for your viewing pleasure. Of course I had some trouble updating this chart this AM. I would like to see this move hit the 38% retracement, but it may not get there. I would also like to see a reversal here to get into my green targt cricle (which price has not touched)before the reversal as well.

Quick mini-rant-

Fuck BP and all the bullshit government suckup, paid off, POS greedy mother fuckers. KISS MY FUCKING ASS!!!!! You mother fuckers better have to pay the price for the bullshit greedy ass decisions you made in the name of profit and greed. FUCK YOU!!!!!!!!! If anyone out there reading this post ever buys another thing from BP you can kiss my ass as well and get the fuck off of my blog forever. What those bastards have done is beyond reproach. No, I am not jmping to conclusions. The mononic people on the (once respected) BBC (that is my main news source this week) want you to believe that RIG and HAL are American companies that are possibly to blame just as much if not more. LMAO. Fuck 'em all I say. Hold no prisoners in the war against greed and profit at any cost.

As for the V shaped recovery? Hell no. Lower lows are coming. Don't fucking listen to the bullshit financial masterminds. Matter of fact, if you have any funds with an investment firm at this time you need to have your head examined. Yup, I said it. Put it this way, if you own an equity mutual fund at this time you are not the sharpest knife in the drawer. The destruction of the global financial system as we know it is now (as preached here for a long, long time) a virtual certainty. Whatever form of state we eventually live in is a great uncertainty (socialist is my best guess), but what is certain is that what our forefathers fought and died for, what we have enjoyed and what our children will never get to experience is gone forever.

The time is now to fight and engage. Get involved in local elections. Get every incumbent out. Most of all, do not be afraid to invoke your constitutional right to raise your voice and let your anger be known. Now is the time, cause if you do not take this chance it will be your last.

Trip Update -

Blogging and updating charts while being charged by the minutes wakes you up to the concept of time and money LOL. Got to see the  Hubbard Glacier yesterday. Smaller ship got to pull within 1/2 mile of one of the most spectacular sites I have eve seen. Floating in past the icebergs was cool enough, but to hear the cracking and watching the massive chunks of the sky blue massive glacier fall into the sea was absolutely amazing. (I'll posta  few photos later). Rough seas got us yesterday afternoon and evening, but pulling into Juno this AM is as pleasant as it gets. Now I have some sense of what those guys go thru on Deadliest Catch, wow! Sun is shining and ready to hit land for the first time in two days.

GL and take care!

Friday, June 11, 2010

Up And Running

I have not charted a thing yet, but I have in room wi-fi running. Cruise is spectacular so far. Silver Shadow is living up to expectations. Denali was cool, but as the old saying goes, been there done that. Alaska is an amazing state. The best part of all the travels so far was the drive from Anchorage to Seward. It was over the top incredible with the snow covered mountains meeting the Alascan Gulf. Lots of wildlife. The little Shankys are having a blast and making the trip really easy so far.

Well, it looks like my call of up from the other day is working out so far. I'll find some time today or tonight to get something out and get some charts updated. The time change is a killer and I'm not finding as much free time as I thought I would.

GL out there. Remember the trend is down. If you are trying to scalp long it is just as dangerous as beck when you were trying to scalp or set shorts.

Wednesday, June 9, 2010


LOL, I actually know what the minis are doing. There is a civilized world still left somewhere! Lord knows there is not much civilized in Denali. After two days of traveling to get here and a 4 hour time change, I'm a lot loopier than normal. So, I was up at 3:30 this morning ready to go! Other than the 5 minute sprint thru the Salt Lake City airport to make the connection the trip has been great. The 8 (yes EIGHT) hour train ride to get here was really nice. Here is where Shanky is if you care.

I have recharted the SPX and what to my eyes doth appear but a double bottom with divergences on the SPX. Purely charting the SPX I'd have to say the situations says up. Not a major but at least for a day or two barring a news event.

OK, back to vacation. Can't wait to read some news and find out what I have missed the past two days. I'll get another post out when I can. I have no open positions as I am looking long in a market I know is going down. Trying to go against the trend here will get you killed - just like on the way up.


Monday, June 7, 2010

A Shanky Sighting!

Yup, Shanky is alive and well. Thought I would hammer out a post before heading to the great white north in the am. Sorry I have been away. No, I am not gonna stop blogging or charting or any of that. I appreciate the many comments and emails with the support and kind words and thank all of you for them. I am just going on vacation. I have been swamped with work and end of school.early summer duties. Family first. I'll be back and better than ever soon. I still have a lot to bitch about and some more charting to do for you.

Minis down 9 at this time. After being as low as 1052 they have recovered to 1056. Fear is everywhere. For the EWTers, honestly, I'm not sure where their 2 up is gonna come at this time. Nothing is working for the manipulators at this time. Permabulls are finally starting to even bite on the reality that life and the markets are gonna suck for a few years.

Here is what I am looking at, I think CPC is gonna set the standard divergence and spike to levels seen in P1 (the first fall).
and I think my target that I called the week before it topped back in April is gonna be pretty darn close. Price has entered the target zone I set (just not in the time frame - yet). The 1020 to 1010 level I have been looking for may not be enough. Just wait for earnings season to get here if you think it is bad now. I honestly don't see any catalyst coming that will be able to lift the market with any significance. If for some bizarre reason it should pop here then the H&S from this level (RS would form here - that is what the blue box is for - I just kinda threw it out there - not target or anything like that) would be just nasty.
All you know that in the am I'll be hopping on a plane headed for Anchorage, and I'll be in and out of contact over the next two weeks. Yes, I'll be working and updating what I can. I suggest that you keep a closer eye on my chartbook in Stockcharts. The $SPX charts should get updated whether I do a blog post or not. I also suggest that you look at the Short and Long ETF sections there as well.

Now I bitch a little bit - 

My thoughts on the larger picture? I tried to put together a mini rant earlier and could not pull it off. Why? Not sure if it was writers block or the fact that there is so much bad stuff flying around right now I could not organize it. I'm getting a little freaked out now that all that I have been barking about for over the past year is coming home. Reality is gonna suck for everyone sooner than later. The manipulators have lost control.

Sadly because of the BS fucking administration, the Fed, the greedy ass TBTF's and Wall Street we're all truly fucked. It is no secret anymore that the MSM is controlled. If these people had any integrity they would speak the truth and let the people know what is coming, but no, instead they keep on proliferating the lies and half truths further invigorating the puss filled credit bubble that will pop very soon.

I have speculated that the first wave of P3 (or the next leg of this bear market) will be the largest of this wave. I thought we'd have a capitulative event in both "thirds of thirds" in 1 and 3in P3. Two market closures I am on record looking for. I am in the camp that in P1 (the first leg down in '08) the market never truly capitulated. If the Fed announces a rate hike soon (like possibly this week or next) look out. If the Fed has a failed auction, look out. The PE ratios never made it to the truly miserable state in '08, and they will this time.

Shanky is thinking serious deflation. I think we need to deflate to a point that wages are competitive enough for us to actually be able to manufacture things here in the states. I'm sure you have seen the wage deflation. I have tons of stories where someone that was making over 200k is now happy to make just under 100k. All this friggin nation did was consume on credit for years. Lots of credit at that. The great consumer living in the period of entitlement is DEAD!

What about inflation? If, if the greenback survives we'll have it. We'll have hyper amounts of it eventually, but not for a while. I think there is going to be massive global default first. Banks, nations, states and cities are all gonna get crushed. We can no longer borrow to fund the deficit spending that has brought us the glory times. When the cities and states start defaulting (more than they are now) on the muni market and the layoffs come you'll know the end is near. Unemployment is just getting cranked up and debt is over the top out of hand. That combination will lead us to a much more frightening version of the socialist state we already live in.

An update to the blog - I have added  Jubilee Prosperity to the blogroll. My readers know I keep a tight leash on who gets in and out of this blog. Rich cash is one of the finest people I have met on the web ever. If you all want to know who I vent to and trade ideas with everyday it is my buddy Rich in Hawaii. This dude is smart as all get out. He's become a mentor, sounding board and great supporter of mine. I highly recommend that you visit his blog and give him a big fat ALOHA when you get there. Seriously, this dude crushes it with his recommendations.

Take care. I'll post up when I can. Watch the chartbook.


Thursday, June 3, 2010

Shanky's Summer Schedule

Feeling better, thanks for all the kind words. Morning posts are gonna become a brunch post over the summer as I have found that I like sleeping in since I do not have to get the kids to school. So, I'll do what I can about getting a post up before the bell, but it will be difficult till September. I'm still at work and up and trading, but I don't have the extra time to put the post together cause I have to get ready to trade. Once I get settled in and start seeing things I'll post. This may actually be better for you as a reader and trader.

Next -  I'm gonna be gone to Alaska and Canada for a couple of weeks starting Monday. Cruise with the family. I'll have to get a feel for what I'll be able to do on the blog from the great white north. I'll be trading and working in the wee early hours out there, but I'm not gonna be posting from Denali. Then back home for a bit then to Colorado for the week of the 4th. Then throw in a few more trips to the beach (if it is not destroyed by the oil spill). LOL, I was looking at my historical hits on the blog and could not figure why they dropped so badly last summer. I'm starting to remember why now.

Bottom line is, I do not blog for a living. I don't blog to make money. I blog to help others learn and to spread what I believe is the truth. Many thanks to the many donors I have (especially you ODA - who has still not been properly thanked for the last generous donation). I love to blog and am very grateful for the community I have built and the many that I have helped. I do however trade and manage money for a living, so I will still be fully engaged with the markets (my chartbook may suffer some as well - It is being restructured right now), but the blog may suffer some but not much. You are just gonna have to deal with my sporaticness for a few months. When the kids get back in school things will return to normal.

Again, I am not disappearing or going away. I plan on continuing to make the exceptional market calls you all are so used to, I will just be not posting as frequently or with the clockwork like precision you are accustomed to. I still plan on doing at least one post a day. Never hesitate to send an email if you have questions or want a post on something. Thanks for your understanding. I plan on enjoying this summer as this may be one of the last that we'll be able to enjoy for quite some time.

Thanks again and GL out there.

Wednesday, June 2, 2010

Shanky Is Sick

Sorry for no posts today. I am out of commission. Watching the market today will make a sick bear feel even worse. I knew a turn was coming. When the upper wedge line on SPX was taken out, I knew it would get ugly for the bears. Friggin manipulated BS is all it is. You, as a bear or shortie, have to be ready for days like these. I have pointed to the resistance lines on RSI for over a week now as they would possibly signal a bottom for this move down being in. Here is the chart. RSI14 took out the TL today RSI5 backested it's TL and has popped. Now look for RSI 14 to move to the 50 line, then we regroup. I may do a more detailed post tonight. IMO there were few signs that this turn was coming that I could see. Mu 1106 to 1110 to gap fill target is in play still and I'll warn it could get worse (not that it deserves to). Again, sorry for being out today.

Tuesday, June 1, 2010

It Just Takes A Little Push These Days

Well, my Morning Post did really well I think. SPX rallied back to backtest the wedge and then the BP and Israeli news hit the airwaves. So the government is actually contemplating prosecuting someone for the BP incident? Friggin amazing! 47 days and millions of gallons later they finally got around to appearing to get something done. Of course we all know it is only hot air being spewed and that nothing will come from it, but they at least sound tough. Speaking of prosecution, why don't they take a swing at Bernanke and Co.? I guess you don't fuck with mother nature but you can fuck it's inhabitants all you want?

Just how bad can it get? Well folks, this puppy is just getting cranked up. oil spills, earthquakes, volcanoes, potential war and a slight global financial problem are just a few of the offerings here at the Armageddon Cafe. All that and the DOW is still trading above 10,000 (barely). We must have the most resilient market on the planet! God love the USA! Prechter did a post that can be found here on ZH - Robert Prechter's Glimpse Of The Apocalypse To Come that takes doom and gloom to a new level. Some of this stuff is so over the top that you gotta wonder what goes thru this guys head when he's in the shower. I agree with a lot of his assumptions, you'll be able to pick out the stuff that is a bit far fetched even for me. 

I think this Israeli stuff will get out of hand. They are like a drunk midget, 10 feet tall and bullet proof - with nukes! So they are all bowed up over there in the Middle East.flexing their muscles like some WWE superstar. Sadly, this is not a game. Strutting peacocks get blown away. My thought are if they are shooting for fun and show, then it is only a matter of time before someone gets really pissed and BAM its on. Then we gotta get involved cause that's what we do and we're not capable of staying out of any confrontation. So, if the Israeli planes are under fire over Lebanon, then the seeds are being sewn for WWIII.We all know that every one of these recessions/depressions has ended with a war. It is only a matter of time. Let's just hope that this is not the LAST war.

Confused about Gold? Up, down, retracement, 5,000 or even 10,000 an ounce as some are prognosticating? I sure as hell am. You know why? You are on one side or the other. The typical exchange goes something like this. GG posts Mr. Denninger and Gold or Why the Dollar-Deflationists Are Wrong on ZH and the Denninger responds with Listen To The Hucksters, Lose Your Ass. Two pretty good arguments that deserve your attention. My thoughts are that we have a massive deflationary period and then go gangbusters int hyperinflation. I think you need to own a chunk of physical. I also like silver. Jesse's Cafe has this nice post on the cup and handle he's seeing in the shiny metal - Gold Daily Chart: The Handle Forms, a Reader's Questions, and Felix Zulauf on Gold. My favorite line, "The greatest negative is the possibility of a market meltdown in which everything is sold, at least temporarily." which has been my call all along. My word of caution, try selling it to someone at the top near Rosie's 10k guess. Good Luck. At that point it will be nothing more than an expensive rock and my seeds and ammo will trump your gold.

Things all around are tensing up more and more every day. That third of a third all the EWTers are looking for may be just around the corner. It sure got impulsive going into the close today. One thing is for sure is that the market is now beginning to react to the bad news and not shrugging it off anymore. With all the troubles, I'm not sure how upside potential is possible at this point, yet the V shaped recovery morons are still spewing their venom. I don't care what the BLS juiced up manufacturing report says or how good the census induced jobs numbers say later this week, we're screwed. It may not be this week or next, hell, given the Fed's proven potential it may not be till next year, but I promise this puppy will one day make the flash crash look like child's play.