Saturday, July 31, 2010

SPX 30m

Just something to look at since you have nothing else to do on a Saturday night. Pink box is divergence from the 10 yr treasury. The MACD is in knots which is very rare for this chart. RSI5 is cycling like a Whirlpool (rare again). Other indicators are climbing or mixed. I like the wedge still, but the triangle overthrow is on it's last leg here if the fall does not continue. If it is right, the triangle target will possibly mark the end of the 3rd wave and the wedge target will mark the end of 1 of 3. Sounds good at this time. If the triangle is dead the wedge is still alive and it will still most likely mark the end of 1. Given the reaction to the GDP disappointment and the rampant manipulation here in China oops I mean the good 'ol US of Fraud, I'd caution all shorts to keep their stops tight. After further charting, the dailys all look very toppy except for most RSI14's. The charts are not aligned and not very clear IMO which illustrate the market actions. So, we may be close to a top, or not. This game we're playing is for ignorant fools. Keep those stops tight at all times. It will collapse and all us bears will be elated. Getting to that point may require some more patience though. 

At this time after charting the 30m group of major indexes it looks like there is still some more upside to come. The VIX obviously would have room to fall. I need to apologize to everyone for missing the easy divergences that led to the buy at the low on Friday.  

After more charting guess what, looks like oil is rolling over with some nive topping divergences and strong resistance on the daily chart.  

Friday, July 30, 2010

Morning Post, SPX, S&P 500, E-mini

Not commenting on anything till all the econ indicators report. I'll say that you need to have your finger on the trigger willing to shoot either way. I assume down will be the appropriate direction. We now know that it was this announcement Already Bought A 3D LCD In Anticipation Of QE "Instarefi" 1.999? You May Want To Consider A Refund that moved or reversed the markets from what should have been a free fall.  I updated a bunch of charts. That reversal today really screwed up the ST charts indicators. I'll say I do like the ring that "Flash Friday" has to it. GL!

Economic Calendar -

8:30 GDP - Can you spot the government stimulus in the blow chart? Can you spot the absence of it?

9:45 Chicago PMI -
9:55 - Consumer Sentiment - Will it be another stunner? The markets may wait on this number to really get moving.

Thursday, July 29, 2010

SSDD - But Worse?

Let's just get right to it shall we...

You really need to go no farther than this Already Bought A 3D LCD In Anticipation Of QE "Instarefi" 1.999? You May Want To Consider A Refund  "Earlier today we noted that the biggest buzz on Wall Street is the recent suggestion by MS and ML's Harley Bassman that the GSEs should provide some form of autorefi program to take borrowers to market rates. As this would impact a vast majority of the 37 million of mortgages outstanding backed by the government, not only would this housing stimulus have a huge impact on consumption appetites, but it would be a political coup as all of a sudden the administration would find tens of millions of giddy homeowners who are paying far less monthly, and quite satisfied with the way Obama has handled things." QEII is coming in one form or another. Just the buzz form this one stopped a mega tumble in it's tracks today.

The ramifications of this? Well, leave that up to Denninger in "Instant Refi"? Watch The Consequences... "
If I'm right about this - and remember - this is speculation - then some of those note-holders are about to get a truly ugly surprise, and we're also about to be treated to whether Treasury's alleged "promise" to back them was worth the breath that Geithner spent to mouth it." Someone's gonna take a bath - oops - wait a minute - no one takes a bath cause the Fed prints the money and the BD's launder it to the Treasury and then WE ALL END UP WITH THE TAB! Just like everything else. Sure Barry, we'll be glad to get the tab for that as well. Whet the hell, did your team of brilliant economists come up with this scam as well? Will it be a wash to you and me? Hell no, just more distribution of wealth furthering this administrations socialist agenda. Better hope this does not go thru before the elections (you know it will).

But if you insist on learning more about reality, please read on.
What the hell, foreclosures, shadow inventory, hoses that are sidelined - no problems in the RE market at all. Housing Bubble will Not be Reblown; Foreclosures Increase in 154 of 206 Metro Areas with Population Over 200,000  or this California Approaches "Fiscal Meltdown"; Schwarzenegger Declares Fiscal Emergency; Fort Worth Texas Ponders Scrapping Defined Benefit Pension Plans Yup, here we go with the IOU's again. I'm positive that more sheeple a re waking up now (see funds flow report below). Question is when and how does all this madness end?

On Bill Gross' recent column you have Mish's take here Bill Gross Ponders "Deep Demographic Doo-Doo" where Mish points out, "Here is the key sentence "The New Normal will not be aided nor abetted by a slower-growing population nor by cyclical policy errors that thrust Keynesian consumption remedies on a declining consumer base."" and Denninger's here See, I Told You So (Again) - Deficits where Karl posts, "Now, after nearly $5 trillion flushed down your economic toilet, after your firm's "customers" profited tremendously from that "shake" while the rest of us got the drips that came from it (and we didn't like the taste), now, when the Keynesian fantasy games are threatening to run into a brick wall and destroy the budgetary capacity of the government - NOW you call for a change in course." LMAO, I love it when Karl gets emotional.

Prag Cap brings a link to a chart in a post that should be titled Fugly and not Ugly from John Hussman. Further investigation brings you this post from Hussman -  Betting on a Bubble, Bracing for a Fall  This post is sensational. "Not every downturn in the index is important. The ECRI emphasizes that when interpreting economic data, there are three requirements that have to be satisfied to confidently indicate an oncoming recession - the downturn must be profound, pervasive, and persistent. Profound means a deep decline, which we're clearly observing here." Further on down you get (referring to another chart), "One reason for highlighting the period of bubble valuations in green is to make a very emphatic point. If you exclude the bubble valuations of 1995-2007 (as depicted in the chart below), the current valuation of the S&P 500 is near the highest level ever observed in history. To expect valuations to expand from here is to rely on the sustained resumption of bubble valuations that have ultimately been devastating to investors." This post is rich baby.

Calculated Risk has Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims: Eight Months of Moving Sideways as usual CR reports just the facts and lacks any sort of humor or insightful commentary. They did offer this, "The 4-week average of initial weekly claims has been at about the same level since December 2009 (eight months) and the 4-week average of 452,500 is high historically, and suggests a weak labor market." which is useful. I appreciate the site and what it brings, but there is a reason I used to bring you info from there a lot more than I do now. It is friggin dullsville. My suggestion, add some spice and report it like this New Weekly Claims At 457K On Expectations Of 460K, EUCs Plunge By 1.5 Million In Past Month "Those looking to find a catalyst for today's market action will probably not find it here. Which likely means ramp time as there will be no volume in the market once again. And good thing Obama extended that job stimulus for the nth time, as EUC claims plunged another 230k in the week ending July 10, a 1.5 million drop in just over a month: on July 10, total EUCs were 3.253 Million, a drop of over 1.3 million since the 4.7 million on June 5. These are all people who no longer used to receive their monthly $1,000 bonus check for not working, taking out tens of billions of dollars in circulation out of the economy." - now I can sink my teeth into that!

This is simply astounding - Stunner: 12th Sequential Domestic Equity Outflow (And $11 Billion In July Alone) Invalidates Volumeless July Stock Surge "The market is now completely disconnected from fund flows, and the only thing potentially keeping it in the stratosphere in addition to deranged binary concoctions are various "self-fulfilling prophecy" high gamma ETFs, which continue to push stocks away from fair value to the tune of several standard deviations. However, just like on May 6, the rubber band will, sooner or later, snap, and make May 6 seem like a dress rehearsal" Calc Risk - you taking notes here? That is a money shot right there. 

That instant refi deal is really gonna screw with the markets I think. Just like all the reported rumors about LBO's and mergers have been allowed to keep speculative bubbles afloat, I am positive that this is just another speculative (re: fraudulent blatant lie) to motivate the markets without having to spend any cash. Sure, it is OK. What do you think, the SEC is gonna actually prosecute anyone for anything these days (unless of course you are a little person)?

GL out there.

Morning Post, SPX, S&P 500, E-mini

11:45 UPDATE - Hit the breaks at 96 target I gave this AM. I think shorting (or adding) at the top of this pop would be a wise thing to do (with stops of course). The optimal spot was the backtest point. This could get really ugly.
Here is a broad look at the DOW and some possible S/R lines out there. Nothing set in stone at this time. Just giving you a look.

Sorry, running late this morning.

Jobs were miserable as expected.

Economic Calendar - NG at 10:30. I am not sure the market will survive all the reports tomorrow morning and that may translate into trades later today.

Earnings Calendar -

Watch for that opening gap to get filled. We're at a point where we either drop for good or we have that one last pop up to the 1040 range. This is it. If today is weak and we begin to take out the 1100 level on the SPX you might want to look at adding to your shorts (with tight stops of course). The 97 to 96 range has been a S/R area recently as well. 99 is the 38% retrace off the run from 65, and 96 is the 38% retrace of the run from 56. Every time frame looks weak but the weeklys.

Here is the updated SPX HnS chart I have been showing. this AM it backtested the neckline and reversed. SPX (so far) is holding lower highs than the 1120 top and it has set a lower low. A lower low to the HnS target of 1100 would not be enough to get me uber bearish, but it would help. Again, any strength below 1100, and I think this top is toast and we'll be looking in the upper 900's as the next target. If the backtest of the blue wedge holds here she may want to run. 200dma is at 1114.

Wednesday, July 28, 2010

Morning Post, SPX, S&P 500, E-mini

No post tonight - getting out for a little RnR. The H&S fell to 1103 just short of target. Will digest later tonight. They have managed to grind the market down in a controlled fashion that has wasted some of the good sell side indicators ST. The dailys are in a worse state though. Might churn some more. Let me di into it and see what I can find. Have a good one!

UPDATE - This is a H&S I was calling all day yesterday on the Dark Side. If it plays out 1100 is a good target. I was really disappointed when the RS did not break down at 1:40. If it is not a H&S it could be a 4 or a corrective and one last pop is to come. See, more confusing signals. Just something to keep an eye on.

Minis did not like the latest DG number. Yet another disappointment on the economic front. Tomorrow is a big day on the economic calendar and the GDP is Friday morning. Everyone I see still has the range from here to 1040 and up. The consensus is that it is topping, but when and where is the big question. I'll say we're stalling close enough to my 1111 target to call it good if it sticks. I'll be really tickled if my triangle to wedge scenario plays out. I don't know of any others that had the combination. We should nail the downside if I am correct.

Economic Calendar -Durable Goods Are Latest Economic Disappointment: June -1.0% Reading Is Largest Decline Since August 2009 (And Misses Consensus Of Course) and Petrol at 10:30.  

Earnings Calendar -

SPX daily - Rarely do my thin dashed vertical lines nail a top, but they are usually very good at indicating a top is near. On this daily chart almost all the ingredients are in place. Looking for the MACD hist to start to fall. That divergence on RSI5 should be very telling.

SPX 60m - This chart does not look good at all. I like that red diagonal as resistance.

Want to know how gun shy I am right now? This SPX 30m chart, combined with the daily above and the 60m, would normally have me screaming top and fall. That black vertical line was placed on that chart as a time target a long time ago. This is all just working out too well. It is to obvious. For some reason (possibly the just turning bullish weekly charts I have been showing) I can't personally get to where the charts tell me I should be. I can't present a better case for a turn than I have in this post and I can't bite? We've been fantastically patient thru this run. Now is not the time for some sort of performance anxiety. Even with the bad DG numbers? All the bad crap we know will be reported tomorrow? Man, I really must have been psychologically damaged by that last big bull run. We all know the manipulation is rampant. I vote for you to prepare to short and have tight stops if you do. Maybe nibble and then pounce once the turn is confirmed. GL!

Tuesday, July 27, 2010

Nasty (And I ain't Talking About Ms. Jackson) - Or Not So Nasty?

No big post tonight. Out Golfing with Little Shanky 1. 

First the nasty -

4hr Minis - This chart really looks bad for the bulls. Quite the reversal candle. Slight throwover of the sky blue wedge. Green wedge (E up of the A-E rising wedge) ending. The 200ma is at 74. I'm gonna guess Thursday at the close we hit 79/81 and get the next small pop. Pick your poison, but that triangle to ending wedge I have been showing for a week or so is coming to an end. The target is not pretty if it plays out. This mat be the last stopping point for the bulls for a couple of years if not longer. No, I am not kidding. If this is not the top then keep on reading below for a slightly more bullish scenario.
Now for the cautionary upside continuation part -

Looking at my CPC chart notice the bottom in P1 and the top in P2 and how the MA is approaching that level. there is not really anything here telling me that this market is ready to turn other than this potential level (red dashed horizontal line). That horizontal black dashed line has been there for a while now. it is a speculative turn date I have had for some time.
Weekly SPX - Better viewed HERE - says the turn may not be in quite yet but it may be close. I'd like to see SPXA50 hit 400 and for NYMO to set a divergence (this divergence can be seen on the CPC chart above as well) Another concern is that the ADX is not right quite yet either. Maybe it just tops, or maybe we have to wait for some reliable signals to come and signal the turn

Morning Post, SPX, S&P 500, E-mini

It is getting parabolic here with the minis up 6.5 this morning. Ramp City deja vu?

Earnings Calendar -

Economic Calendar - Consumer confidence at 10:00. A bad number here will surely spike the SPX over 1200.

SPX Daily  - Possible divergences being set as even some of the daily indicators are starting to embed now. At the 200ma, the upper BB and resistance here. My 1111 target may be about to get dusted and we'll have to adjust to the 1149 area if that is so. I do not think it gets above the third target, if it even gets to it.
 SPX 60m - (the 30m chart is a couple of posts below if you want to see that one) - How legit is this breakout? Is it to legit to quit? To legit? To legit to quit? Markets are blowing thru normally reliable divergences and I really think this is a blow off top here, but that said I'm not shorting it yet. I'll say that when it does turn it is gonna bolt. Be patient is all I can say. We're gonna have to get thru this earnings BS and then reality will set back in.

Monday, July 26, 2010

News Bad - Market Good - What's New?

So what's new? It appears the worse the news gets the more the market ramps. Go figure.

The MSM pumped the "good" housing numbers this morning (after CNBS missed the announcement being "on commercial break" at 10:00 - wonder why?). coverage is broad, but one thing stands out, the revisions and how these "good" numbers were calculated. As usual we'll start with Zero Hedge's coverage Atrocious New Homes Sales Data Sufficient To Force Another Algo Mediated Short Covering Frenzy where you get, "So let's get this straight: this was the worst June on record, following the worst month on record in new home sales ever, the beat was completely drowned out by 57k worth of prior revisions, the average new home price slid another 1.4% to $213,400, yet just because the new home supply is down to "just" 7.6 month from 9.6 in May it is enough to push stocks to the moon". Nice, worthy of a ramp job I'd say. Their slight of hand is getting easier to spot. It won't be long till we're all pricing in multi-period revisions and taking advantage of all this fine economic data the way the HFT bots do.

Denninger covered it this way - New Home Sales: They Sucked.Calculated Risk report some insightful information in Survey shows house prices falling in June, but long wait for house price indexes, "That is why Popik is saying the price declines will not show up in house price indexes until October of November." which makes sense, so plan your investments accordingly. 

For those of you into comparing the past to present here are a couple of views. First from Denninger, the bears will love this one - Fractal Update, 7/26/2010 a timely little video that I may actually  buy into. On the other side (I found a bunch of shit today that was deep into the recovery being on and bout puked) - here is one of those posts (via The Big Picture) Sixteen Dow Recoveries: Update compares how does the current Dow recovery compare with major recoveries in the past? Of course you have to be in a recovery to make a legitimate comparison, right?

Money supply? Yup, you got some? Nope, well you better go get it. Weimar? did Shanky say Weimar? Yup. This may be one of the most important adds to a post I have ever done. It was sparked by a running WARNING I have going against the availability of your "deposits", deflation (massive) and two things I ran across today. My mentor/buddy (never an intern - that was a bad joke) Rich Cash of Jubilee Prosperity sent me this today The Death of Paper Money where we get, "There is a clear temptation for the West to extricate itself from the errors of the Greenspan asset bubble, the Brown credit bubble, and the EMU sovereign bubble by stealth default through inflation. But that is a danger for later years. First we have the deflation shock of lives. Then -- and only then -- will central banks go to far and risk losing control over their printing experiment as velocity takes off. One problem at a time please." Then I found that Mish posted this really long and drawn out post on Money Supply Divergence - TMS1 vs. TMS2 vs. M2 - What does it Mean?  I'm bringing it to you because you should read it and understand what the hell is happening and understand that, "Bear in mind, the Fed has so distorted the system that "It's all credit". There is nothing backing any of this, including checking accounts." That should scare you to death.

What would a Shanky post be without a little doom and gloom? Thanks to Mish, I can supply Edge of Financial Chasm. As usual Mish is focusing on the State level, and he states, "When it comes to state budgets, the low lying fruit has been picked. Indeed all the fruit has been picked and next year's harvest has been spoken for as well. Thus it's the end of the line for state's ability to kick the can down the road in a meaningful way, if employment does not dramatically pick up soon." Another statte related issue that could effect the health of you or a loved one is Warren Pollock Warns Of Emergency Drug Shortage As EMTs Told To Go To "Alternate Protocols"

I'm overdue for a rant. this shit is getting way out of hand. The lies and misrepresentations and fraud and pure criminal actions are getting a bit much to bear (again - for like the 1,000th time), so expect an implosion on my part soon.

Gl out there and thanks for all the views. Have a great evening.

Morning Post, SPX, S&P 500, E-mini

UPDATE - New 30m chart after close -

OK - Confusion still reigns, but these divergences are getting out of hand. Triangles, wedges, ABC counts and of course rigged markets all add up to a bunch of nothing. There is no clear path right now. Sorry bout that, but that is the way it is. I could pull one chart and say up and another and say topping. Overbought is not a given, but then again could it be? You know what I think, but that does not matter in this game.

We have learned to follow the hot hand and that is what I think we need to heed till more clear turn signals are in place. Was that a legit breakout last week? Taking out the upper resistance line on a big green candle might be something we should pay attention to. But what about the divergences on the ST charts? Hell if I know? My 30m indicators are saying blow off top here. I can make a great case for either an ending wedge or a throwover is in place right now and we're gonna get crushed soon (which I like), but for some reason I can't buy it right now cause the daily and weekly charts are still climbing (and earnings fraud and manipulation are rampant).

My 1111 target is right around the corner. Anything above that and I'll start freaking out and looking for a double top possibly above 1200. I did have a 1140 target at one time. We just have to digest and be patient. the stress test fraud and a few other actions are masking the truth. Sadly we'll all get abused in grand fashion sooner than later. We just have to be ready when it happens.

Earnings Calendar -

Economic Calendar - New home sales at 10:00

SPX 30m -The divergences are indicating a blow off overbought top. That fits well with the Blue rising wedge creating a throwover of the Black triangle. the ABC target is much higher near 1149. Lets see what it does at the 1111 range (my second target all along - first was 1090) and if it gets thru that my third target of 1140 is definitely in play as exuberance gets out of hand. I must caution the bears of the position of the weekly indicators. they are turning up and if they do not embed and cycle thru this market may have the low 1200's in mind. I have placed a tentative strong sell line here, but have not shorted it here just yet.

Friday, July 23, 2010

Morning Post, SPX, S&P 500, E-mini

With the AUD/JPY pair at resistance (basically in the same spot as the minis since it has tracked - or lead - the markets) and the 30m chart with a nasty divergence I'm gonna do what it tells me to. With the EU stress test results coming today, the AMZN debacle and the markets being divergence central I have to vote for a down day today. Will the market continue to celebrate bad news and ramp anything marginally positive?

Economic Calendar -

Earnings Calendar -

Minis fell back to the busted diagonal and this VWAP this morning, so support is set here and then 81 is the next level. If 87 cracks I think it calls pretty quickly to 81. If 81 cracks then everyone will be significantly confused again. Who knows with this psycho market. I'm just following the 30m charts around (up or down) and trying to keep my nose clean till a clear trend is established (up is the majority bet right now with targets on the web ranging from my 1111 to some as high as 1175)

SPX 60m - I got a light sell line on the chart. 30m are there. I am not ruling out some sort of blow off top here before further weakness. IMO there may be more bullishness out there than there should be, but you can't fight the trend.


Thursday, July 22, 2010

About To Puke Up A Lung (Or Two)?

UPDATE- $DJUSFN H&S? you tell me. Nice 200ma resistance just above in case the PPT gets a little to giddy.

Manipulation at it's finest. The PPT decided to take the low volume AH action to step in and stomp the Bernanke testimony with some "unusual" market action, throw the unemployment report under the bus and squash some bad housing news all in one massive ramp. BRILLIANT!. They are throwing the kitchen sink at it now.

What have they done to the charts? I suggest you start with my 1m SPX HERE and scroll thru to the 60m. The divergences are kinda sick.

I am not ruling out by any means a run to the 1111 area, but the path to get there may not be as easy as the 27 point ramp was this morning.

Look out is all I am saying. I am not short yet, but expect to be soon. I have reservations on where the dailys are and their possible topping scenarios. It is possible we get one more pop up and on that pop the top for a while may be set. Be patient, let the trade come to you, always use stops and may the force be with you. Fighting the dark side is never a good idea. They have powers that are uncomprehendable.

“Fear is the path to the dark side. Fear leads to anger. Anger leads to hate. Hate leads to suffering.” MAn was Yoda good.

Morning Post, SPX, S&P 500, E-mini

Morning, I'd like for you to know that I have put all my money in companies that produce motion sickness product. This up and down action is worse than the Alaskan cruise I went on earlier in the summer. Given all the "uncertainty" out there, a 12 point ramp in the minis overnight was not what I thought I would wake up to.

Earnings Calendar - Busiest day of the qtr for earnings today.

Economic Calendar - Initial Jobless Claims Come At 464k, Up 37k Sequentially, Miss Consensus Of 445k

I guess all I have to say is don't believe the hype, but don't fight the tape. I have resided to follow nothing longer than a 30m chart, thus I'm  a happy camper. Like many readers point out, this bullshit recovery can last for a while. The busty ones on CNBS can pump you crap just as well as the ones on the street corners in skimpy dresses late at night and so can the government. It will collapse eventually, I promise.

Minis - /ES 30m - She's consolidating, what else can you say? There is a ton of top line resistance at 1081 and then the plethora of TL's you can see. About a week ago I proposed a wedge and that appears to be working out so far. One thing about the wedge is that it allows for an overthrow, so it can crack those upper TLs and possibly run up to that 1111 area. What is making this decision so tough is that the daily indicators are right in the middle of the road. Are they climbing or rolling over? They appear to be rolling over.
SPX daily - Pretty simple. All the blue circles indicate caution where a possible turn is taking place, but that is not guaranteed. It is the daily MACD I have wanted to get over 50 for some time now before a meaningful turn happens (IMO of course but not necessary). You see the clear resistance of the 50ma at 86 and the upper BB and 200ma at my second target at 1111. The blue resistance line is quite apparent. I have had that gray one up there for a reason (it is the cleanest off the top).

So, lets see what this opening ramp on bad jobs data does to the market. I guess we can truck along losing 450k job and that is acceptable data to prove we are recovering. Who cares when unemployment benefits are extended to infinity and revenue beats are all over the place. I guess jobs are no longer a market mover. Consumer Sentiment will be avoided next. 

Watch price at resistance. If it cracks and you are short I'd move to the sidelines. On the other hand it could hold and the wedge may play out. Some EWTers would count this as a 1 of a 3 of C which means if they are right you get a really good pop later today. On the other hand some are counting it as 2 of 1 of 3 of 3 which is totally opposite. So watch that resistance and remain patient. This is not the time to be making big bets (without stops especially), but it will be soon though. I'll be playing the 30m charts waiting for clear direction as this wedge plays out with my Dramamine close at hand.


Wednesday, July 21, 2010

Barry, Ben, China And Trading Advice?

If you did not notice Barry signed FinReg into law today. Oh joy! The lies just a keep on coming from Mr. Transparency. Lie Du Jour: "No More Taxpayer Bailouts" I feel better now, don't you?

Big Ben did nothing to help "the cause" today. Some of the questioning was political positioning for the party as some actually threw Ben under the bus. Some of the testimony was actually productive. Mostly the testimony was not pretty and reading between the lines, things are going to suck for a while. Mish has Bernanke Says Economic Outlook is "Unusually Uncertain", Fed Prepared for "Actions as Needed" where you find, " In my opinion, risks are not just "skewed" to the downside, they are enormously skewed to the downside." We're in deep shit. Deep, deep shit folks.

My haunts had some pertinent posts on China today. We can't forget our friends in the west (you know the one's that have out debt by the balls). I'm thinking when they collapse (which will be sooner than later) that is when the 'financial nuclear option' becomes real not to mention the possibility of other nuclear options as well. I found China: The US Is "Insolvent and Faces Bankruptcy" on Jesse's Cafe American. "It would most certainly be a nuclear option to outright dump Treasuries outright, and would raise the ire of what is still a formidable military power. But it is the Western mind that is so incapable of seeing the many shades of gray in every situation, the subtle gradations in a range of choices that I believe China not only sees but is already actively pursuing." As I have pointed out here numerous times, what used to be the joke of us believing anything from socialist controlled China has now been embarrassingly flopped to the US.

I don't think they are ahead of us in the recovery phase cause their RE bubble is just now collapsing. Ponzi "Shark Loans" Fuel China's Housing Bubble; Home Sales Plunge 44% in Xiamen; Bubble Busts in Tianjin from Mish has, "In my book both of those are signs not of "strong demand" but of speculative blowoff top, bubble mentality. Judging from volume that has dried up overnight, it appears China's bubble has burst." I have to ask if we can ever get reliable data from China? I mean we have the ratings agencies and the BLS, what the heck do you think you are going to get from Big Red? They are in much worse shape than we are simply because they have so many more mouths to feed. the US (and the world) have a massive credit bubble and the producers like China no longer have anyone to buy their led painted crap. I'm not sure where all this ends up, but it will not be pretty.

ZH just popped up with China Proves The Best Time To Kick A Rating Agency Corpse Is Right Before It Stinks Up The Place." Today, China proves that the best time to kick a body (or a rating agency) is just after it has been shot in the back of the head and before it is begins stinking up the place. And in doing so, it has officially put a stake in for the role of primary global credit rater, citing China's unique role as the world's primary creditor." Of course our ratings agencies are on the take and deep in the back pockets of their corporate pimps. I guess thankfully someone (that is someone with more power over our government than we the citizens have) finally stepped up to the plate and called them on it. Call it the first 'real' shot over the bow in what is to become a really agitated situation. Hey, can you blame the rest of the world? I mean it was our bought and paid for system that perpetrated the scam that bankrupted the world (and allowed the bankseters to gt away with all the loot).

My intern Rich Cash just sent me this one - Chinese rating agency strips Western nations of AAA status which explains the situation much better than the above and in more detail. thanks Rich! 

Bottom line is when China begins to feel the heat then global tensions are going to spike as well. Rhetoric will get really interesting. (aren't you glad we have Barry at the helm to manage this crisis!) With their RE collapsing (we knew it was coming, bridges to nowhere and empty malls), global demand collapsing and millions of mouths to feed their troubles will trump ours. We worry about our impending financial collapse. Should we be more worried about those we have pissed on? (well, not "we" as in the American public, but "we" being lumped in with the POS global financial Ponzi/fraud sponsors, the banksters, the government and the Fed.) This is gonna suck big time.

Now something for you traders out there. 

We all need some help, and I found two nice posts tonight that I think we all should read and heed. I'll be a better trader tomorrow cause I read them. You will be to.

Phil's Stock World has The Greatest Traders. "Trading success, comes from screen time and experience, you have to put the hours in!" I suggest that you review this and pay attention.

I then found Ego: Illusionist, Trader’s Nemesis On The Big Picture. "For the investment trader, there is only control over the individual trader’s actions (not the market’s), and more importantly, the observation and reflection of those actions for improvement and future application."

I have to dive into the charts tonight (working on getting my 10,000 hours in). At this time it looks pretty bad as the daily, 60 and 30m charts are all aligned headed south. My only issue lies in the weekly charts and where they are. Bernanke did nothing to help the cause today as we finally got some truth out of someone in DC. Earnings could still be a sticking point for the bears as they lead to false hopes of a recovery.

GL and thanks for the views!


Looking at YHOO - 

Weekly 5yr - Dead cat bounce or worse? Black or blue TL? Violent swings are all you get with this puppy recently. It appears if you miss the week it moves, you miss it. Few sustained moves. 
Daily - If that is a H&S the target is near 8.
 30m - Looks like it fell to support. I'd say it is due for a bounce, but the short play will be in order soon. Guess what, the SC PnF target is right in line with my H&S target at $8.5.Note that YHOO is setting up a larger inverse H&S where this breakdown will be the RS, thus, at the bottom you can load up and hold on for a while, that may be a year or two away though.
So, there is a chance for a ST pop here if the markets show any strength, but that will not last long. IMO YHOO is a news driven stock (will it be bought or not usually) and I'm not sure what good they can produce other than a buyout rumor. We all know how they screwed that up when it was near $22 I think. Is YHOO a Blue Light Special down here? I'm betting MSFT or some venture capital firm knows they can get 'em for $10 or less.

Morning Post, SPX, S&P 500, E-mini

Oh, ye of little faith. LOL, Even I gave up on the earnings spin/fraudmeisters ability to make something happen on Friday. I had touted to look out for earnings and that the ABC was in play, but even Fridays head fake got me. Now we have the rumor of QEII to contend with. Crazy times we're experiencing and thus I stick with a time frame for investing that lasts no longer than the swing of the 30m indicators.

Economic Calendar - Petrol at 10:30 and Helicopter Ben at 2:00. Tomorrow is enormous.

Earnings Calendar - BIDU after close today.

SPX daily - Triangle or wedge? Is it the ABC I gave up on Friday? The toughest part of this call is in the next chart. OK - on second look - if they take privce to a higher hight (like my second target of 1111 where the 200ma the upper BB and resistance lie there is a great chance the whipsawed daily indicators will set some nasty divergences. Let's keep an eye out for that.

SPX 30m -
So there is still some room to climb. I say we fall off the close cause the 30 and 60m minis have set divergences that can't be ignored. 92 is the max on the minis for now. So pullback, then ramp thru support. Not willing to make a call after that. Keep an eye on this 30m chart. There is a chance this market gets overheated soon. Watch for this chart to set a nasty divergence later this week.


Tuesday, July 20, 2010

EVERYONE Has To Listen To this TWICE!

Eric Sprott Interview By King World News: Must Hear

You regulars to ZH have seen this one. If you have not, it is a must listen. If I were an intelligent hedge fund manager that was rich as all hell and really well spoken, this is what I would sound like. We all know that is not true, so listen to Eric and imagine me! This one should blow you away and should be enough to satisfy your doom and gloom desires for one night (that is unless you are sadistic like me and listen to it multiple times with a giant grin).

"Money is being poured down the drain and we have lost headway."

"The risk in the system is unbelievably immense relative to the capital involved." All the banks will have to delever.

"We've oriented the world to try and save the banks." 

"We've had to go from green shoots to what we're looking at today is almost like cliff diving."

"I don't even know if there is a tool left in the tool box."

"Weakness begets weakness, and if you don't turn that around it just implodes on its self." 

"You have got to get down to a level where people can either reneg on their debts or just start over again."

"You're building a foundation made on sand here that we're falling into."

"Increases in these prices (gold) are always measured."

On unemployment and people falling off the dole - "There is going to be a legitimate state of desperation as you just can't make ends meet and people will have to find other means of survival. ....We're getting closer to it by the day."  

"All fiat currencies become worthless. They all become worthless."

That is just a sampling of the conversation. If we had a real truthful administration that delivered transparency, this is what you would hear every night. Wait, that is what you hear, naaah, just kidding. Give Eric a listen. This is one of the best I have heard in a long time.

Ramp me up Scottie! 


Morning Post, SPX, S&P 500, E-mini

Minis update - 1 and 5m cycling thru setting divergences on longer time frames as she sets a possible double top at the 200ma and resistance line. If that support line cracks 52 is a good number. On the other hand, if the 200 cracks to the upside, you'll know the PPT is in control.I will add that the 30m MACD is still bullish, so I would not be surprised to see more upside.

You know when you are in a bad situation but don't admit it, and then something comes along to shine the bright light of reality and you then figure out you are screwed? Welcome to earnings season. Let's call it a wake up call to all investors far and wide. No matter the spin (see post below) 'analytsts' put on things, somehow the truth always comes out in the wash. Ya think this quarter is bad (and it is just getting started) wait till next and then the one after that.

Earnings Calendar - AAPL today!

Economic Calendar - Weak Housing Starts At 549K Versus Exp. Of 575K, Prior Revised Down From 593K To 578K

Minis down 9. GS gave 'em a little pop. the time frames on the charts are all over the place. Dailys just rolling over (or topping) getting bearish, 60m are just coming off the bottom and the 30m is somewhere in the middle headed up. So, in that case we revert to the AUD/JPY pair to be the decision maker and find that it is consolidating in the end of a triangle signaling more weakness in the days to come. Strength above that 200ma is very unlikely which translated to little implied strength to come in the future for the markets.
Notice any similarities with this SPX chart and the one above? I do and neither look good for the markets.
Down we go after the nice consolidation in the bear flag. IBM was a real downer. revenues are a problem AGAIN for like the 12th quarter in a row. Companies are about as lean as they can get and the consumer is dead. It is going to get really ugly from here on out. We may get some reprieve this quarter, but next will be a doozy. Wait and watch for the lowered estimates to get lowered again. I like 55 for a target on SPX if it does not let go completely.


Monday, July 19, 2010

Do Not Unbuckle Your Seat Belts

If you heard the government say, "The captain has turned on your fasten seat belt sign and you need to remain in your seats." would you believe them? The truth is something you will rarely never hear out of Washington. They can not disclose the truth cause the sheeple would all freak out if they knew the truth. If we knew as a mass just how bad we're getting ripped off to support the kleptocracy's addiction to profit and bonuses we might actually get upset. We can't handle the truth, so they lie and move along pulling demand forward and kicking cans of nitro-debt down the road extending and pretending that this will all blow over.

Jesse's Cafe American has Nothing Was Sacred: The Theft of the American Dream where he shares comments and It’s the End of the World As We Know It from Phil's Stock World (I love Phil and do not cover him enough). Jesse says, "Economics will not provide any answers in and of itself. Economics without an a priori policy and morality, without a guiding principle like the Constitution, is a heartless monster easily manipulated to say whatever one wishes it to say, if they are willing to pay enough economists to say it. Its reputation as a science is greatly exaggerated." Phil's post is excellent as he summarizes, "It’s a new world, America, and you’d better get used to it – we were sold down the river on a slow boat to China long ago and we’re only just beginning to feel the first effects of waves that wash back to our own shores. The people who own the media don’t want CHANGE. That’s why you never hear this stuff in the MSM – things are going exactly according to plan and the old money crowd is playing a long, patient game and they already have most of the chips – the last thing they want is people questioning the system…" Ahhh, fraud and greed, two of my favorite subjects here on Shanky's blog.

Fraud and greed? Shanky, you are always so harsh ;-). There have to be examples of integrity in the system. Is it really all that bad? Well, the pump does not end in DC. It spreads to Wall St (another favorite whipping boy here). When someone like Hussman says, "I can’t emphasize enough that when you hear an analyst say "stocks are cheap based on forward operating earnings" it would be best to replace that phrase in your head with "stocks are cheap based on Wall Street’s extrapolative estimates of a misleading number." you have to perk up your ears. Credit Writedowns has John Hussman on Taxes and Tobin’s Q-Ratio a lovely piece on another way of valuating the overbought market!?

Sticking with the earnings manipulation fraud over-pump theme Mish has Five Reasons for Nonsensical Forward Earnings Estimates. Included in that post is

Reasons for Nonsensical Earnings Estimates
  • Analysts do not do their homework on what is really happening and why. Instead they see rising earnings and take them at face value, nearly always figuring following quarters will be better yet.
  • Analysts do not understand the dynamics of debt deflation, peak credit, the baby boomer retirement dynamics, etc. In short, Analysts do not understand the global macro picture is bleak.
  • Analysts look at a steep yield curve and think the Fed can lift the economy.
  • Analysts have not yet caught on to the fact that consumer spending and bank lending attitudes have changed for good.
  • Analysts in general have a vested interest in getting the public to buy stocks, annuities, etc. because that is how they make money.
Any of that sound familiar, especially the last point? Reality is that they are fraudsters that depend on selling you crap so they can afford the third house in the Hamptons and keep the mistress in her BMW. It is all a fraud designed to make money no matter what eventually happens to your retirement assets. You know what happens when they screw up? We the taxpayer will bail them out and no one will prosecute them for doing anything wrong, so why should they give a shit what they do or say?. Who cares if some "material" facts are left out of a marketing brochure? Immaterial if you ask me, slap on the wrist type stuff you know.

To throw the cherry on top of the analysts are ignorant fraudsters crooks on the take real bastards. Zero Hedge delivers McKinsey Study Confirms Sellside Analysts Are Conflicted, Slow, Biased And Generally Stupid. "In what will come as a surprise to precisely nobody, a new study by McKinsey has confirmed that sellside analysts were "typically overoptimistic, slow to revise their forecasts to reflect new economic conditions, and prone to making increasingly inaccurate forecasts when economic growth declined."" This is PRICELESS, "Moreover, analysts have been persistently overoptimistic for the past 25 years, with estimates ranging from 10 to 12 percent a year,4 compared with actual earnings growth of 6 percent.5 Over this time frame, actual earnings growth surpassed forecasts in only two instances, both during the earnings recovery following a recession (Exhibit 2). On average, analysts’ forecasts have been almost 100 percent too high.6"A great report that is a must read. I love the consistent 'Overoptimistic" charts presented in this post. Those do not lie (unless Liesman on CNBS were refuting them of course).

What have we learned from this post? Well, for a majority of my readers, nothing. I have only confirmed that the perpetuation of misleading information is in tact and still on steroids. Those that watch and listen to CNBS know this all to well as we listen to the 'analysts' and 'experts' pump their wares and do all they can to keep you in the market so they can get out at better prices while they stuff their bonuses to the gills. And you thought used car salesmen were seedy? I have to lump this group with congress and current and past administrations, but not as low as the Fed Chairman and his legions of bought and paid for "economists" that can't seem to forecast their ass from a hole in the ground.

I took the time to watch Fast Money tonight ( I was so inspired by MB's earnings pump of IBM after the close I had to hear what the traders had to say). Surprisingly is was not good at all to somewhat confusing. They were all decidedly bearish on 'technical' grounds (actually mentioning things such as a 50ma!) but still had their bullish sentiment. One guest (or something) actually said the words "lower lows", but as to which context that was in can be debated. Bottom line, I now know why I never waste my time listening to this crap (or to MB at 4:00).Maybe I'll watch Cramer pump the GS crowd before tomorrow.....naaaah, can't stoop that low. That would be like watching Sir Teleprompter deliver another quality speech written by who knows who.

Uh, earnings were miserable tonight. What was it the analysts were looking for?  Oh, don't forget about those lowered estimates!


Morning Post, SPX, S&P 500, E-mini

UPDATE - Looking at DAL -  Looks like DAL is a nice short candidate. Reversing off wedging into top line diagonal after nailing a 61.8% retracement of the fall at $14.81. The indicators on this weekly chart look ill and have room to fall. The pink neckline on the right is trying to crack along with the lower wedge support line and the 38% retracement here. If this gives way that is a possible $4 drop to near $7 as a H&S target (which works nicely with the %0 to 61% retracement zone). Stockcharts PnF has a target of $6 - Nice!

Charts look to be rolling over on a daily basis, but that is not guaranteed as the 15 and 30m charts that got annihilated with Fridays 31 point plunge are very oversold. Minis up a smidge, but off their highs. Interestingly the AUD/JPY pair 30m chart is inverse to the SPX now, so that correlation may be dead or does the pair still wag the dog? We'll find out soon.

Earnings Calendar - Earnings were a dud this morning and tomorrow we have a full slate including GS and JNJ before the bell and AAPL with YHOO after the close.

Economic Calendar - Quiet week really till Thursday. HMI today at 10.

With GS and AAPL tomorrow, it will take a major move to add to the weakness we saw Friday. Let's see if we can get some sideways choppy action that can cycle the indicators thru without adding much to the top line. After charting a bunch this weekend it is obvious that although oversold, the charts appear ready to turn for round two (of 15) of this fall.

SPX 30m - Here is one possibility I am looking at. A nice large topping triangle/wedge. After E we all know what happens if it does not happen here. A pop up for E would make a possible H&S as well. So, there indicators are rolling up and the futures/open will help with this. So, sideways to up today going into the GS/AAPL earnings then we regroup. GL!

Friday, July 16, 2010

Morning Post, SPX, S&P 500, E-mini

Minis down 1.5 after GOOG, BAC, C and GE. What a joke. I guess a well timed GS, FinReg, BP spill fix trifecta coming in yesterday before the close gave the home team a winning ticket they are cashing in this morning (the morning of Opex of course). The trend of exceeding (revised) analyst expectations on falling revenues can not continue forever. Multiple quarters of misses on falling revenues will eventually catch up with anyone. The time is coming and the man behind the curtain is losing control of the machine as his tricks are getting old and tired. Next quarters earnings and then the next will be dismal. Be prepared for that.

Earnings Calendar -

Economic Calendar - Consumer Sentiment at 9:55

No doubt about it this market is teetering on collapse. Everyone can feel it. The economic indicators confirm where it should be. No one is gonna stick around for this collapse after experiencing the last one and fund flows confirm that. Sadly, somehow the market continues to levitate like David Blaine has it under a spell.

I don't get it, but it is the only game in town if you like equities, so we still play. I have reduced almost all market exposure to the 30m charts. The cycle from top to bottom is about as long a time frame as is reliable these days.

At this time I'm really leaning towards total collapse from here. I originally thought this corrective would move up to the 1090 range as a first target and to the 200ma at 1111 as a second target and then crap out. Then I went to a revised theory of a corrective down and one last triumphant ramp to possibly the 1140 range (that is in the process of being scuttled cause my thoughts on earnings and manipulation are not panning out quite right) Most are virtually sure once it turns again it will be the last and an inspiring fall will come. Swift, like a thief in the night,  another 20% of your assets will be swept away to the great bank in the sky.

So, does it happen here and now? It seems they gave is a great shot yesterday and used all their ammo in one shot. What did they get for that - a run to 1100 and some gap closure (TYVM). The daily chart is rolling over and the 30m divergence set by that late spike yesterday screams massive weakness of the double top. Get your seat backs in their upright position and please fasten your seat belts, turbulence is expected, and if we hit an air pocket look out.

SPX daily - I wanted to get MACD over 0, but may not get the wish. Watch that histogram for the first signs a turn here is coming. RSI5 is overbought and rolling over. S Sto has reached a topping point. The 50ma is acting as resistance. 1070 would be a first target and there is support at 40. I am afraid this fall may not be orderly. Watch out for sentiment numbers at 9:55. They don't have much left in the tank to prop this market up. OPEX close may be a good timing mechanism as well.

GL and have a great weekend.

Thursday, July 15, 2010

You Gotta Laugh - That Is All You Can Do

Wanna bet the market soars on what will most likely be disappointing CPI and Consumer Sentiment data in the morning? LOL, I did not think so.

This GS settlement should push everyone over the edge. I mean everyone. The big guy always gets off. Will anyone ever get prosecuted and thrown in jail? I can't wait for Denninger's comments. I bet he has a coronary over this one. This is bullshit. More on this later when I get the details. Omission? Woops, I forgot to add this to the disclosure that was really important. WTF? The double standard is absolutely fucking ridiculous.Listenimg to MB cheer lead this settlement is sickening.

FinReg, Oil spill fixed and GS slap on wrist - what a great day for America! Well, one out of three ain't bad the way things are going these days. Barry pimping FinReg now. LOL, Wall Street reform, what a joke. More on this farce later. 

The best post I found today was Guest Post: The Dangers Of A Failed Presidency on ZH. It is basically a summary of many of my past posts drilling down to the core problems that face us. This is required reading for all my viewers.

"Ok, so what do I mean by “The Dangers of a Failed Presidency.”  I mean that it is July of an election year and Obama’s magic spell that held sway over the American people and the world for about three months has completely washed away.  I mean that the printed money mirage recovery that we have had to tragically watch is ending and we have no job growth to speak of other than a few hundred thousand census workers.  The public has no appetite for more spending and Bernanke has no cover to print more money (yet).  As such, if people think things are in freefall now for this administration just wait and see how the next several months pan out.  This then brings me to the following quote:

The bottom line here is that Americans don’t believe in President Obama’s leadership,” says Rob Shapiro, another former Clinton official and a supporter of Mr Obama. “He has to find some way between now and November of demonstrating that he is a leader who can command confidence and, short of a 9/11 event or an Oklahoma City bombing, I can’t think of how he could do that.”"

prag cap has NO V-SHAPED RECOVERY IN STATE TAX REVENUES which highlights (with a picture) the fact that, "Despite the constant chatter of v-shaped recoveries and “green shoots” states have experienced anything but a v-shaped recovery.  Budgets remain a disaster and state tax revenues are far from recovering.  Many view state tax revenues as one of the purest indicators of economic health.  Although lagging, it’s clear that this recovery is anything but v-shaped"

No comment is necessary here. Now go read the full post and come back. 

Following that, then what Mish has been harping on for months starts to make more sense. You see when Oldest Community in Colorado Puts Entire Police Department Out to Pasture OR Oakland Lays Off 80 Police Officers in Budget Crisis; What's the Real Solution? then reality really starts to sink in. Police being let go in a depression when we have record numbers of unemployed that are falling off the government payrolls. OK - I get it. This is the safest time to let the coppers go. Bottom line is that this is not the time to fire the police, but they HAVE to cause the cities can NOT AFFORD THEM. Let that sink in while the markets put on another ramp job. City governments are being stripped of everything and some are filing for bankruptcy.

Mish has created a nice niche covering the recession/depression from the state angle and we're blessed to have him exposing this angle of the truth. One thing I have mentioned often is what is going to happen to the municipal market. This extremely large, yet undiscussed, problem is staring us in the face. You see the states can no longer belly up to the bar and borrow to fill their entitlement deficit chest. Sadly they have promised more than they can deliver, but the golden goose died and they now find themselves behind the eight ball. 

Please read Municipal Bonds Benefit as States Kick the Can Down the Road; How Long can it Last? from Mish where you find, "For now, the municipal bond market seems placated with states not running out of money simply because they have stopped paying bills and/or have temporarily expedited income tax collection. I do not know how long that can last, but the second-half is likely to be quite telling." For those of you that have parents that own and count on munis for their savings and income, I highly suggest you look into what really backs those bonds and possibly scuttle those that do not have specific revenue streams that are sure fire backing them. Remember thoseBAC and stock dividends they used to get? Well their muni interest payments might take the same path. Shanky, what about the AAA ratings? LOL, WTF good is a AAA rating these days when the ratings agencies are what they are and states are taking measures like these to make ends meet - 
  • Illinois let $5 billion of bills go unpaid.
  • Minnesota is delaying corporate and sales-tax refunds, postponing school and medical aid and setting up a $600 million bank line of credit.
  • New Jersey is planning to refinance about $250 million of general-obligation bonds to push $202.5 million of debt-service costs into future fiscal years.
  • Illinois, is selling $900 million of bonds for capital projects this week.
  • 22 states put staff on temporary leave.
  • Arizona sold its House of Representatives and Senate buildings.
  • California solicited bids for 11 of its office complexes.
Denninger had to retract a retraction in an article posted this week addressing earnings fraud and Repo 105. You see Oops - Citibank DID "Misclassify" Repos yup, they did. "Citigroup Inc Citi and AIG report to the SEC that they classified more than $25B in repos and securities lending deals as sales since 2007 (update)" But only $25 BILLION. No big deal. Nothing to manipulate earnings to juice stock values. No fraud or misrepresentation here. Ha, what a joke all of this is becoming. Following the GS settlement, what control do the cops have over the inmates? None, cause they own the cops. The financilal institutions can do anything they want and know nothing will come of it. Sadly the ultimate result of this will be capitulation as they suck all the blood out of the turnip, eventually begin to canibalize on each other (this is already happening (bear Sterns and Lehman) and that is the ultimate sign the end is near.

Every night I simply deliver the news. Every night it gets more and more unrealistic (if that is even possible). Every day the Ponzi/fraud case is perpetuated as the banksters try to hide their mistakes and faults as their balance sheets rot in the closet with all those marked to fantasy assets and shadow inventory while they continue to rape the public via the Treasury and Fed of all their assets. This is INSANE! That Jefferson quote in my header is there for a reason. 

This is just nuts and is on the verge of getting out of control. Maybe not this year, but by the end of next year or in 2012 there is a real possibility of the posse comitatus act being dead and martial law being enforced. Seriously, bankrupt states and cities can no longer rely on the federal government to pay the unions and overpriced pensions. Austerity and mass layoffs come. Without a police force in force, then who the hell keeps order? That's right, the National Guard and the Army. You have to consider this as a real possibility. Now ask yourself if you ever thought it would get that far? This is really screwed up stuff.

Listen to Charles Nenner: "Long-Term Investors Should Wait Until Dow Hits 5,000"  "I expect the bear market rally to continue for 4 more years, with big upswings like in Japan before coming down again. I don't expect the market to totally fall out of bed. It is going to be very difficult few years to make some money. We will test the lows of 2009 to be tested over the next couple of years. I don't expect the economy to pick up until 2020." Do you all remember how I used to end posts with "konichiwa BITCHES"? It will be a traders wet dream, but an investors nightmare. You can see a chart of the Nikkei HERE. I don't think it will actually be that nice. Add a big crash at the beginning. Some are actually recommending going to CASH as the safest alternative. CASH! Cash! Like in the mattress or buried in the backyard.

Good luck out there. Get involved in these elections and remove all incumbents. We must have change and change this time will only come from a total overhaul of the representative body. You also need to seriously consider what to do with your investments and retirement funds. The pension issues are ASTOUNDING. Look at this for just one example Kentucky Retirees May Soon Outnumber Pension Contributors. If you think your retirement paycheck is safe of if your retirement funds are even yours you need to think again (thus all cash in the mattress where they can not touch it). The great consumer is dead. This will shut down the whole global economy (did I mention the banksers were robbing us blind?)

WAKE UP! and get involved. We the people are needed now more than ever. It is time to stop being we the sheeple. We have to put our differences aside and come together as one or we lose (if we have not lost already). 

In spirit of this post's title - this from ZH - Artist's Rendering Of Tim Geithner's Desktop "As America slowly digests the empirical evidence that both our judicial (SEC settlement) and legislative (FinReg farce) branches are now dead and buried (we all know how the executive branch is faring), the only thing left is humor." AMEN TD, Amen! (NOTE: The total debt liability per taxpayer is $1.094 MILLION AND GROWING! That means YOU! That should scare the shit out of you and bitch slap you into reality if nothing else does.)

Thanks for the views and GL!

Morning Post, SPX, S&P 500, E-mini

You got this - Ugly Economic Data Continues Validating Double Dip: Deterioration In Empire Manufacturing, PPI And NSA Initial Claims

And you got this- J.P. Morgan profit surges 76% as loan loss reserve shrinks
This all ties in nicely with my confused post. What is real is that the economy is going away and not coming back for a long time. What is not real are these bullshit earnings that are beating low balled estimates to pump the markets.

Economic Calendar -

Minis are basically flat on all the news. the tug-o-war between bad data and good earnings is quite the battle. It should not be. Bad data should rule cause we're all betting on FUTURE growth right? So someone please explain the near term euphoria? Never mind, I will explain it, fraud, fraud, carry trade and HFT.

GOOG after the close will most likely hold up the COMPQ, so I will speculate that will hold up the market somewhat. Tomorrow morning we have BAC, C and GE. I think the financials and tech kill it (thanks Repo 105!) and the consumers will struggle based on the consumer data we have seen (if not this quarter they will struggle for sure next - unless of course we get a round of lowered to easy to beat estimates).

I have to share this post from Planet Yelnick - Mother Market is a Big Tease it frames all of the confusion perfectly. Up or down, how high or how low and who is on what side of the fence.
I'm betting on earnings manipulation and the low volume ramping HFT algo to continue to ran the ball down the field in 5 yard chunks as bad data is continually ignored by the Fed/Government/BD ramp machine. Sargent barbrady is on the corner yelling, "All is well. Move along. Nothing to see here."

SPX daily - I want to see the dailys climb a bit more. I want MACD over 0 line and then I'll get bearish. Maybe Monday. the big question is where does the corrective end and how. I like the 12 12 count and may abandon the ABC to 1140. that cuts it off a bit shorter. For now I an sticking with my second target of 1111 and the 200ma (since 1090 was sliced like a knife thru butter - hey when I first called 1090 some thought I was nuts). Like Rich Cash pointed out yesterday, the possible formation of a H&S on the SPX is in place now (RS forming here). Barring some sort of real swing south this daily chart is not ready to turn. RSI is tired and this run is losing steam but it is not over quite yet. Lots of green circles on this chart still. Close, but not yet.

GL today! Oh, thanks to all the new followers that signed up this week.

Wednesday, July 14, 2010


The humor factor is ramping like a Ponzi/fraud 3:30 screamer into the night. On one side the globalist, corporate and  government controlled likes of CNBS and friends and on the other side the blogger truth movement. We know both sides well. One is free and unencumbered the other is paid to perform and controls all the data.

What is funny is how virtually everyone is now laughing out loud at the MSM coverage. Public opinion is off the charts negative. Just check out the stats at Rasmussen Reports. "Seventy-two percent (72%) of all Adults say the economy is in a recession, while 78% of Investors say the same." Wait a minute, I wonder what the percent of the CNBS cheer leading pundits say the recession is over and there will be no double dip? Remember, the money managers must have you invested to make their fees. It is their job to keep you in the market. How else in the world will your retirement savings grow if you are not invested for the long haul?

ZH has a great post Shadowstats' John Williams Exposes The Media's Propaganda Spin, Or Why Watching CNBC Can Be Hazardous To Your Wealth. where you find John Williams' personal experiences with the MSM. "More recently, following an interview on a major cable news network (not CNBC), I was advised off-air by the producer that they were operating under a corporate mandate to give the economic news a positive spin, irrespective of how bad it was." And that is how the free media operates in this now doomed country, programmed from above to lie to its viewers."(emphasis ZH).

What you are being spun is a pack of lies about how corporate earnings are expected to grow and be fantabulous thru 2011 by the 'analysts' all in front of  Barlcays Cuts Q2 GDP Estimate By A Third From 4.5% To 3.0% and this FOMC Minutes: Fed Sees No Need For Additional "Policy Accomodation", 5 To 6 Years Of Economic Weakness so earnings are supposed to grow at astounding rates in the face of a declining GDP and a budget deficit (term used likely cause there is not budget really for 2011 and then you get fresh info like June Deficit Fails To Account For $142 Billion In Excess June Borrowings; U.S. Has Issued $1.5 Trillion Excess Debt Over Budget In Past 4 Years). Excess borrowings? You gotta laugh at that one. No wonder they don;t need a budget for 2011. They don't stick to it anyway. With the Fed printing press, who cares?

So where does the line get drawn. Here in lies the confusion and where the rubber will eventually meet the road. Mish has Expect Second-Half Housing and Durable Goods Crash but then you get upgrades across the board from the BD's and Wall St. 'experts'. Whom can we trust? That is the funniest part cause even the BLS BS is now working against the home team as their birth death models and economic assumptions are exposing the BS behind the numbers. At some point the truth will have to come out, and I'm more positive you will get it from a digital dickweed than from some 'reputable' reporter on the MSM.

I mean, at least we all have the ratings agencies we can trust to give us honest and un-compromised truths behind the credit worthiness of nations and corporations right? Guest Post: Britain's Public Debt Doubled Again Overnight to Now £4 TRILLION. (No that is not a typo - OVERNIGHT is correct.) We all know these agencies had noting to do with perpetuating the Ponzi/fraud scheme that has gotten us into this mess. Well, maybe we can trust China's ratings before ours? (that is really saying something if you ask me.)

The banks can be trusted not to borrow enough money before reporting earnings to stuff their balance sheets so they can appear to be liquid, right? We'll find out in the morning when JPM beats by a penny or two (I'm positive they are under orders not to blow out any numbers to avoid suspicion - earnings are easy with Repo 105 and all the free money you can get and lever to 80%). BAC: "Accidental" Repos from Denninger covers a slight bo bo that BAC had. We'll know more about this on Friday morning when they report. ZH adds to that detail in Bank of America Admits To Repo 105-Like Fraud, Even As End Of Quarter Window Dressing Continues Unabated "We are sure that late night comedians can come with enough material in which a $10.7 billion "mistake" is not material so we will leave it to them, and instead we will ask another question as pertains to the whole end of quarter window dressing theme: namely - why does it continue to this day?"

Dylan Ratigan's post on ZH hits home Lies Divide, Truth Unites Dylan sums it up nicely and helps unclutter the confusion being spun by the puppet masters. It is refreshing to hear someone in the MSM to speak in such a fashion (I assume he was not allowed to do this on CNBS). "The mainstream media rarely fights back against this lie, either by an inability to understand, a desire to protect their access to these same Politicians and Bankers or an unwillingness to go up against the very same financial institutions that are often the only thing between them and the unemployment line."

So don't be confused. Bottom line is the country is falling apart (Ill, CA or AZ - pick a state). The global financial system is a Ponzi/fraud scheme that is sucking all the cash out of the world (present and future monies). The great period of entitlement (uber debt) has come and gone and now we must pay. There is no double dip cause we never left the depression. The divide between reality and what the Fed/Treasury/BD bots/algos can concoct in a volumeless market will be exposed eventually. The bait and switch is in effect. Please note (as in the case of AA) the lowered estimate beat on lower revenues theme throughout this earnings season to come. It is all bullshit. The demand has been pulled forward (autos and homes anyone?) and rates are at record lows and NOTHING is working. QE II? LMAO ,throwing more money down the black hole is more like it. It may take the market to all time highs, but we'll know what is real and what is not, and I know that when reality slaps us in the face it is not going to be pretty.

Remain bearish my friends.

GL and thanks for the views.