Thursday, May 31, 2012

Morning Chartapalooza 05/31/02 $SPX $Gold $ES $Silver $Oil $Dollar $EUR/USD

Let's chart 'em up and try to figure out what the heck is going on shall we -

Gold Daily - Busted LT white and yellow channel supports. Green channel down off the '11 top thru LT supports. Now in pink intermediate channel under blue s/r diag. $1567 is the major s/r point going back to '11. Breaking $1478 would be a big deal. Green channel support is currently near 1443 and falling.

Wednesday, May 30, 2012

Afternoon delight 05/30/12 - The Waiting Game

Today's action in the futures while the market was open. Support to VWAP and a 7 point spread. Price is consolidating above the red support diagonal (s/r off the '07 and '11 tops) while obeying the VWAP as resistance. As mentioned this morning the minis have three support point between here and 1300.

Morning charts 05/30/12 $SPX

Gonna make it simple again this morning since I am still a bit behind charting for the holiday. Let's rip thru some Zero Hedge headlines and see just how confusing everything is right now.

"10Y Treasury yields just broke to new all-time record low yields (marginally lower than the 9/23 1.6714% previous lows) and while the 'rates-can't-go-any-lower' crowd perhaps have not looked at JGBs recently (as in the last decade) in price terms, 10Y Treasury Futures have gained 4.6% since 3/20 swing lows while the S&P 500 has lost 6.0%. On the bright side, at least the front-end isn't inverted yet...yet." 10 Year Treasury Yield Breaks To New All-Time Low | ZeroHedge

Not sure how many years I have been showing you this chart, but it tells the story -

Tuesday, May 29, 2012

Afternoon Delight 05/29/12 $SPX

I guess bad news is still the best news.

The wedge -

Minis 30m - I wanted to show this to you earlier but Disqus(t) would not let me link it to a comment.

STB is back at home now and tomorrow will be standard issue. I'll be around late night updating a few charts.

GL and GB!

Morning Charts 05/29/12 $SPX

Today is a travel day for STB. I'll be around a bit in the AM and maybe at the close.

I'll spare you regurgitating all the troubles in the EU. Let's just say that things suck and are getting worse (kinda like here, the press is just not reporting on it). Let's not forget that Spain is falling apart at a rapid rate as well. Bottom line, the global financial implosion is coming and you need to be aware of that. I can't say wehn or where, but it is coming sooner than later. I have no clue of how long they can extend and pretend, but it is coming. Either it collapses on its own or they continue to print, print, print and kick the can to a point where it just collapses on its own.

It is complete bullshit. There is no other way to say it. The financial elite control the system. They control everything from the printing to the regulation. Is one of these assholes in jail? Seriously, Corzine walks the streets. Dimon, Blankfein just start the list of assholes that should be under the jail (not covering the EU pumpmeisters that belong there as well). Shall we address out corrupt bought and paid for special interest serving government? Let's not and say we did.

This crap make me ill in my soul. Here we are the day after Memorial Day, one of the most honored and important holidays of the year and we have to come back to this shit. Screw them. Our fathers and forefathers did not serve and give their lives so we could be run over and robbed by a greed and power driven group of elite assholes. They did not fight and die so we could be a bunch of spineless entitled pussies either.

It's gonna crack soon. Their system will shatter and then the aftermath of that will be horrifically ugly. There will be no or little access to cash and food and the "everyone always gets a trophy" crowd will be up shit creek without big brother there to care for them. My only hope is that we remember where we came from, honor those that fought before us and stand up to the elite and take back what it rightfully ours.

I'm ready to self sustain and sure as hell hope you are.

I'll be watching from the phone today. You can enjoy the continual rumor driven MSM pumped bullshit markets without me.  I'm pissed. I've had enough. I'm over it. The can all kiss my ass. The elite are going to get what's coming to them. We will prevail. It is gonna suck. The purging that we all must face will be biblical, but it is necessary to restore balance and to recapture our nation form the scum that runs it now.

As for the charts - For what it is worth -

SPX Daily - 

GL and GB

Monday, May 28, 2012

Friday, May 25, 2012

Open Weekend Post - Memorial Day 05/26-28/12 (mini rant)

You know the drill, share the love and the knowledge.

I could go off on Memorial day. It rocks as a holiday not just cause we gets to beez offs wurks and parteee a lot, but because it is a rocking good holiday where we celebrate the lives of those that gave the ultimate sacrifice so we could be free.

Pretty sure you know where I am going with this.

First let me say thank you to and a prayer for those that paid the ultimate price. Let me assure you that I will not let your sacrifice be in vain like so many other worthless piece of shit entitled fuckheads that live in this nation. You did not die so I could sit on my fat ass and swipe my EBT and live in section 8 housing pumping out kids like rabbits so I could rape the system and be a worthless fucking parasite maggot.

Let me remind you (if you did not know) that, " Memorial Day is a federal holiday observed annually in the United States on the last Monday of May. Formerly known as Decoration Day, it originated after the American Civil War to commemorate the fallen Union soldiers of the Civil War. (Southern ladies organizations and southern schoolchildren had decorated Confederate graves in Richmond and other cities during the Civil War, but each region had its own date. Most dates were in May.) By the 20th century Memorial Day had been extended to honor all Americans who have died in all wars. Memorial Day is a day of remembering the men and women who died while serving in the United States Armed Forces. As a marker it typically marks the start of the summer vacation season, while Labor Day marks its end." Memorial Day - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

What has the lovely education system generated here in this country? How well do random sheeple understand this holiday? Bunch of stupid fucks. No wonder we're such a shithole of a country now.

You died so we all could better ourselves, this country and live free of oppression. Hot damn, you gave it all. Let me say thank you again and again and again. I promise from my end that I will make your sacrifice worthwhile. I will support this country and fight beside you to support the Constitution and Liberty.

You did not die so the Manchurian Manbat and the Illuminati goons could oppress us into debt serfdom with their excessive spending and raping of the middle class. Nor did you die so they could establish and institute indefinite detention via the NDAA and expansion of the war powers act. You did not die so NATO and the UN could gain control of our military. You did not die so they could build 70 plus internment centers for the American sheeple and fly surveillance drones over this country to spy on its citizens. You did not die so I could get my balls felt up by some pervert agent at the airport in my own country treating me as if I was a terrorist.

In order to keep you and all before you that gave the ultimate sacrifice from rolling over in your graves because of what we have become as a nation (a socialist oppressive tyrannical fascist state that preys and suppresses the weak and divides classes into racial segments to further the political agenda and entrench power), I promise to hold your values and beliefs close and do all in my power to make sure you did not die in vein.

Thank you again, to you and your families for the pain and sacrifice. I promise to defend the constitution, liberty and freedom and am willing to pay the same price cause this country is worth the cost (well, not for long the way we're headed now).

GL and GB!

Morning Charts 05/25/12 - Doomsday is Coming - $SPX $ES

What a lovely move that was last night in the minis when the EU opened. I guess the eurobond experiment is back on for now or Germany is coming off its high horse and is willing to at least engage in discussions regarding more bailouts of the insolvent everything in the EU.

Let's not kid ourselves. All the markets, banks, governments and everything related to the insolvent global financial system today is fueled by bailouts or easing or stimulus. Heck, it does not even take a real action to move the markets. As noted here and in other sources, all it takes is a rumor of more easing to rally the markets these days (just see last night's actions for example).

The bottom line is the entitlement state has evolved and expanded from the lower and middle classes to the governments and banks. Everything now functions on handouts. This is not sustainable.

Everything now has a fiat backstop (think JPM's big failed bet). There is no risk until the printers stop printing. I have tried over the years to tell you that this is real and it is the new norm. Maybe some of you do not get it when I Shanktify things (try hard to put complicated things into real and humerus terms). Read this post and maybe it will make the situation more clear. Guest Post: The Big Print Is Coming | ZeroHedge

You see the Fed, BIS, ECB, IMF are the duckt tape string unraveling threads that hold the system together now. Without intervention (or the rumor of) and a whole lot of it, this market collapses and everything goes with it. Intervention (printing fiat dollars to infinity) can not continue forever. An unregulated, unchecked, rogue, self serving wild west financial system has evolved and until that system is destroyed and sound REGULATED financial principals put in place (which should have happened in 2008) nothing will get better it will only get worse.

To emphasize that they are finally losing control and the end is near please read, "According to the latest figures out of Google Trends, Americans have been searching for the term “bank run” in record numbers in recent days, outstripping the level of concern displayed following the collapse of Lehman Brothers in 2008. " Google Trends: Fear Of Bank Runs Hits All Time High For Americans Alex Jones' Infowars. The sheeple are starting to get it and are waking up to the fraud.

I've been telling you for years to get out, get into gold, silver, guns, ammo, water filter, seeds, food and to store wads of cash at home. Get your money out of dollars and into real assets that can sustain and protect you and your family. Items that can be bartered work well too. It you think you will be able to walk down to your local bank after this crash hits and be able to walk out with say $5,000 you are ignorant. HA! You can't even do that now - go try it. They will tell you they do not have it and to come back another day. If you think the grocery stores will always be stocked think again., If you think FEMA will come and deliver enough food don't kid yourself. If you think order will be kept, ha, you are in serious trouble.

Here is the chart that I like the best to show you what I think is coming. Actually this chart assumes an orderly (but hasty) exit that will take about two years (2013 and 14). I personally think that is way too optimistic and when this crash happens it will be swift and true market capitulation (everyone running for the exits at once which did not happen in '08) occurs. The target box has a low end of about 630 SPX. I can see a 4 handle before this is all over and that could happen as early as  2013.

For years my calls have been for massive global default and a market crash that will include at least two market closures. It is the only fathomable way out. Don't forget that history has never experienced financial times like these and not been able to avoid a war of some sort.

Minis 5m - All the lines you should need to see. Backtesting busted green diag support here with red (old resistance off the 07 and 11 tops) being the big driver here.

Enjoy the holiday weekend. I'll be getting my usual does of Corexit this weekend. School is out for us which may alter some of my morning posts a bit (I like to sleep more in the summer). Congrats to all those with graduates! Welcome to the world of the student loan bubble. I suggest you familiarize yourself with that issue.

GL and GB!

Thursday, May 24, 2012

Morning Chartapalooza 05/24/12 $SPX $ES

Cause the news is horroble across the board and the markets are obviously in 'anticipate more easing' mode (price should be down three times what is is up right now) I'm just gonna sling some charts at you this morning. If you have any questions about 'easing mode' see the AD last night. that will explain everything. I do recommend you read Welcome To Chez Central Planner: Presenting The Complete Fed/ECB Response Menu | ZeroHedge if you have any interest in understanding the plethora of ways the Fed/ECB can try and wiggle their way out of most any situation (till they can't).

Minis 30m - Backtesting the yellow wedge and meeting green resistance off the 1413 top (not anywhere near the 1420 resistance diag that is near 1394). The red diagonal that is acting as a support area here is the old upper market resistance diag off the 2007 and 2011 tops. The backtest occurring here is a major support play and if this goes significantly then real downside action will be coming. Upside 1341 is my first major resistance.

Dollar - Yellow LT channel support held and the rally is on channeling up thru LT resistance near $81 in a real power play. It is amazing a worthless piece of paper (fiat) is something that gains strength in the most dire times. Just follow the greeen channel for now. I'll do a dollar post next week or you can see Shanky Does the Dollar for a more historical perspective. 

EUR/USD - Pink falling channel/wedge cracking MAJOR support is a MAJOR deal. The busted green support goes back to the '02 lows. The 1.25 area has been major support/resistance since '98. This crack is a big big deal. Most know I have had a 1.16 target for well over a year now. Sadly if it gets there that may not even stop it. I'll do a new EUR/USD post next week. See Shanky Does the EUR/USD for a more historical perspective.

Oil - For those wondering why I have been looking to $85 for some time now here is your reason. The green support diag is off the '08 lows and the $85 number is key for several other economic reasons. $74 is major s/r going back to '05. Watch that level carefully if things start to get fugly.

Gold - Pink channel down thru yellow and white LT support is a major breakdown technically that people don't want to see. 1523 s/r matches the December lows after the crash off the 1927 top. This is a pretty major support point.

Silver - After spiking to near $50 the fall has been brutal, but there is hope for the silver bulls here as yellow support off the '08 lows is mere points away now. Green channel resistance and yellow support are pinching price here and something will have to give between now and August. Throw in $27.50 support and you get a real sticking point for this PM. Note that gold has already taken out this yellow LT support.

UST 10yr  - This chart really says it all - No commentary is necessary.

SPX Holiday Chart - How does the SPX perform rolling into a holiday weekend? Well here is your road map. Draw your own conclusions. Basically it appears on the surface that price more than likely will ramp into a holiday weekend during a bull run and there is no effect in a bear run. Memorial day, Labor Day, 4th of July and Christmas are on the chart.

The sad news is I blew up my FOMC meeting chart yesterday and will have to rebuild that beauty. Expect to see that soon.

GL and GB!

Wednesday, May 23, 2012

Afternoon Delight 05/23/12 - Nothing Has Changed

Look, it is so basic. If you do not get it by now you are a lost soul and need to get your head examined. It is all bout easing and nothing else. The markets are rigged and respond like Pavlov's dog to the slightest mention of the Fed printing to control market price movement. 

In the commentary today I posted, "Who does this sound like?"

"With Europe hitting the skids, EURUSD at multi-year lows, and the US equity market down a whopping (and terrifying) 9% from its March highs, it seems the market remains increasingly hopeful that this time will not be different in that the Central Banks of the world will print and save us once more." QE's Long Shadow Is Getting Shorter | ZeroHedge 

Now STB this morning, "There is really not much to say as the markets hang in limbo surrounded by bad news already having fallen just shy of 10% to the 38% retracement of the climb off the 1100 close in October. Twist is still on and ends next month. The FB IPO is done. Everyone appears to be waiting on the Fed and ECB to make a move or signal there is more easing to come. Why else would the markets have rallied the past few days?"

Further in that same post TD states, "we estimate (based on QE1 and QE2) that the S&P could trade down to 1100-1150 before we see Ben step in to save the world" which is a bit more pessimistic than the 1170 worst case target I have been spewing since before the 1420 top. Recently I posted that I was looking for a manufactured crash since almost this time last summer to allow for the easing call to be a layup. I got a crash and easing, but this time it appears more are coming around to my way of thinking (and beginning to use the term 'exogenous event' we coined years ago). 

Today's late price rally was nothing but rumor based BS. Something about a FDIC like insurance program for the EU. LOL, who's gonna pay the insurance? the insolvent governments or the money printing ECB? LMAO. That's funny. As Reality Recedes, Rumor Rampage Returns | ZeroHedge. What's sad is that rumors (and BS government data) are the new reality and we must deal with them as proven over the past two years. You get some fear and an oversold market and the rumors get really ripe, and thus you get a roughly 190 point pop in the DOW to close down - get this - 6.66 today. 

To understand the major issues on the table in the EU right now you should read Markets slump ahead of key EU summit - Telegraph "European markets fell heavily on Wednesday morning as investors doubted an EU summit would lead to a solution of the eurozone's problems." Since the elections changed the landscape in France and Greece the strategy that the troika followed for the past several years has been turned upside down. 

To give you a quick reminder of how bad things are on the other side of the globe ,"The ratings agency Fitch on Tuesday lowered its assessment of Japan’s sovereign credit to A+, an investment grade just above the likes of Spain and Italy, and criticized Tokyo for not doing more to pare down its burgeoning debt. 

Japan’s public debt will hit almost 240 percent of its gross domestic product by the end of the year, Fitch warned. Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis: Japanese Debt Downgraded by Fitch; No Urgency for Japan (Until Sudden Panic Hits). Did you catch that 240% number? And no one is worried? Riiiight. 

Speaking of issues in Japan, you must bring up the unthinkable (which has proven to become thinkable). To those AFL long holders, you have been warned now about the debt and this issue for quite some time, "Chris Canine – who has 15 years experience as a health physics technician, chemist and radiation safety instructor – told Energy News that if number 4 reactor fuel pool at Fukushima collapses, Japan will be evacuated. Fukushima: If Number 4 Collapses, Japan Will Be Evacuated Alex Jones' Infowars. Think this can't happen? Think again, this is far worse than Chernobyl that has an evacuation zone that would, if in Japan, have all 40 million in the Tokyo area evacuated by now if the prevailing wind was not directly East all the time. (Just scratching the surface here - it really is worse than this)

SPX 60m - Is that blue wedge right? Down for E? I'm not sure about the possible divergences in the indicators since a lower low was not achieved, but oversold it is. The count would be for a move up here before further weakness. My upside max right now is near 1370 with a stop at my 1341 level being the first major resistance. 

GL and GB!

Morning Charts 05/23/12 $SPX

Brief post this morning as I have some end of school year duties to attend today.

There is really not much to say as the markets hang in limbo surrounded by bad news already having fallen just shy of 10% to the 38% retracement of the climb off the 1100 close in October. Twist is still on and ends next month. The FB IPO is done. Everyone appears to be waiting on the Fed and ECB to make a move or signal there is more easing to come. Why else would the markets have rallied the past few days?

Markets are in a kind of gray area not sure where to go right now. The monthly and weekly charts say the top is set and there should be severe weakness still to come after the dailys reset and this corrective works its wonders. The problem is the Fed controls price. They know the proverbial shit is finally hitting the fan. They can't not act though, printing is not, has not and will not solve anything other than making a already awful problem worse and is destroying everything essential to the future success of their system. Still the markets driven by greed could care less. Like the meth addict that could cares nothing about the end result, they just want their fix now and expect it with the regularity it has been delivered in the past.

Tuesday, May 22, 2012

Afternoon Delight 05/22/12 - One Nasty Chart

I forgot to post this chart this morning and since it was a hit on Twitter today I thought I would share it here. Pretty simple when the Monthly 10ma crosses the monthly 20ma it is all over. With little over a point separating the two and a stick save since November lows being the only reason they did not cross already, the situation looks dire. Just follow the black circles. Add to that the dire divergences on this monthly chart and you can see how weak price is here. Oh, care to look at the cycles and what on the surface looks to be playing out? Are we at a cycle high? Why yes we are. If that red box is right 2013 and 2014 are gonna be two really nasty years. Of course I think that box would be optimistic as I'm not ruling out a 5 or a 4 handle on the SPX before this is all over.

Monthly LT Cycle Chart -

Morning Charts 05/22/12 $SPX $ES

A little review and history - Late last summer STB was off on the tangent that the Fed and the government would manufacture a crash in order to make a move to QE3 and to get the Super Committee budget approval passed without any qualms from the markets or the sheeple. Well, the super committee wound up being nothing more than a crock of shit, the markets crashed post QE2 (as they always do when life supporting liquidity is pulled) and the stealth QE via Twist and the promise of LTRO2 came into being.

I called the crashes in June and November. It was not that hard to do when TA and the end of a QE session line up perfectly. Well here we are again. Twist ending in June, the government is out of money again and the charts back in March gave us this turn pretty much on a platter screaming top. This brings us back to another overriding question/thought STB has been posing for well over a year now and for that I bring the weekly target chart out of the closet (It has not been updated in over a year).

Monday, May 21, 2012

Morning Charts 05/21/12 $SPX $ES

Running a bit late this morning, sorry. I had a hectic weekend and I'm not quite as prepared as I'd like to be. Maybe that does not matter as apparently the world leaders are not either. Speculation is the best word that describes the global situation to me right now. How much easing and when and will it have any beneficial effects other than kicking the can one more time to extend and pretend that all is well when it is not. So, in other words, nothing is new. Did you expect any different? If you did or if you thought some sort of magic bazooka is coming to save the day, don't.

A few months back STB was pointing to how nasty the charts looked. They still look nasty on the weekly and monthly charts, but the daily that I'm showing below is starting to get pretty oversold. Simply being oversold does not mean a turn is coming or has to come, but it does mean that you should be aware of that potential.

Daily SPX - You must remember that I am applying TA to a market that is dominated by the Fed and its easing policies, so historical norms can not be applied.

Friday, May 18, 2012

Open Weekend Post 05/19-20/12

You know the drill, share the love and the knowledge.

In my first comment yesterday I said, "I think in the OWP I'm gonna open discussion and appeal to each of you to lay your emotions on the table. Soup, we know where you are LMAO. I want to know what you feel, so think about that and what you would like to share." So let's get some testimony from the core commenters and any lurkers that would like to come out of the closet. Kinda an AA meeting for STB folk. I think this is important as for the most part we share a collective consciousness here at STB. It will benefit us all to know (to what degree you would like to share) how the others are feeling about the impending events to come.

In case you missed it (birthers rejoice), The Manchurian Manbat was born in Kenya. What's gonna happen when it is proven that the potus of the last 4 years was never legal to hold the office? What a mess that will be. Obviously Sheriff Joe got too close and now Breitbart and others are picking up the ball.

MUST READ The Vetting - Exclusive - Obama's Literary Agent in 1991 Booklet: 'Born in Kenya and raised in Indonesia and Hawaii' - They can't hide the truth forever and will apparently kill anyone that tries to unearth the truth. It does not get anymore black and white than this find.

And the coverup - Media Works To Suppress Obama 'Born in Kenya' Bio

This issue is a great example of just one of the many items we have to be seriously concerned about in these times. Corporate media control over the government hiding the truth where independent bloggers and researchers on the internet must dig for the truth and risk their lives to expose the elites all the while they are unleashing new laws to control the net. I hope you get my concerns and fears about where we are headed both financially and where our freedoms are concerned.

And emphasizing the control state in the EU - Here is what those poor folks are facing (that will effect us all).

Have a great weekend.

GL and GB!

Morning Charts 05/18/12 $SPX $ES

I figured it out - I'm bored. I'm bored to hell with the corruption and fraud and theft. I'm sick and tired of the heartless theft by the banks and dismissive conduct by the governments that are owned and controlled by said banks. I'm sick and tired of the entitled/lazy/irresponsible sheeple being so complacent and lacking the heart and fortitude to stand up against said banks and governments.

I'm sick and tired of the apathy (Apathy (also called impassivity or perfunctoriness) is a state of indifference, or the suppression of emotions such as concern, excitement, motivation and passion. An apathetic individual has an absence of interest in or concern about emotional, social, spiritual, philosophical and/or physical life. Apathy - Wikipedia) shown by the global populace while they are financially raped and politically subdued.

I'm just plain bored. It is like a really crappy 4 year long movie (actually longer, just this most recent episode is four years) that just goes on and on and on. Debt this, fraud that, no regulation, rampant corruption, expanding police state, the sheeple lose at every turn, and I'm sick and tired of it.

Thursday, May 17, 2012

Real Proof of Real Fraud?

I do not know if this is a hoax or not, but once this news hit the web it went viral and every site I tried to get into to read about it could not be accessed via Chrome. Strange? Coincidence? I mean if something related to this was posted on twitter or wherever the links would not work. I even tried to post the links in my comments section and they would not take there.

So, we'll see if this is something big or not. Just curious at this time.

We ask the global truth community of researchers to get on this one right away.   

GL and GB!

Shanky Does the AUD/JPY - Running Out Of Time

As usual we have to first look far back in time. There are many long term support diagonals and price points that are coming into play and then there are some longer term ones that are out there and need to be recognized for their potential.

Monthly - Long Term - We look way back to find examples of long term trends. For example this support resistance point near 71 runs clearly back to 1993. It appears to mark the low point or danger zone where price does not want to stay below for too long. the inverse of that is the 89 level. The happy medium place for price to travel in is between these two points. Notice the range since 2009. While this price movement appears to have been the most stable in years, we all know that this is because of market intervention and the control over natural price movements. Note the lower green support diagonal rests sub 55 at this time.

Morning Charts 05/17/12 #SPX /ES

Denial (no, not that river in Egypt) is everywhere and the MSM cover up of the financial shell shocking events and turmoil around the globe right now is appalling. Thank goodness for the internet (while we still have it) and for those that actively report, research and share the truth. How else would we know the truth about just how bad the JPM losses are or that the bank runs in Greece and now Spain are very real?

Denial also happens with individual investors. Even STB hits a wall every now and then where the Rubicon is hard to cross. Reality bites now and it is going to get worse. Psychologically we crawl into our protective little shells and work to avoid the misery. Are we collectively ignoring the doomsday events we've all been cognizant of for years?

We've been so conditioned to expect the stick save and ramp. Markets are a bit confusing right now because the old 'tricks' that were guaranteed ramp starters like the FOMC minutes leaning towards easing or an LTRO3 discussion we had yesterday are not flaming the bull's fires anymore. Has reality sprung its trap. Is the realization that the euro zone and the euro experiment is really dying finally starting to sink in?

Wednesday, May 16, 2012

Morning Charts 05/16/12 #SPX $ES

Not much to say other than everyone is waiting to see if the EU is going to implode and then if the ECB/Fed is going to do anything about it. Everyone is looking for the backstop to magically appear as it always does in these times. The only thing different this time is there appears to much more certainty that an event will happen. It is that deer in the headlights moment where everyone is frozen and fear is real (but not showing in market actions as the Fed/PPT still manage to keep a bid out there at the right price and the right time).

EUR/USD - Critical level is an understatement. Must stick save here is a no brainer. The proverbial line in the sand is that green support diagonal which has held the major lows since 2002. Price came within .002 points from tagging it last night and that may have been it. It should take something more than news or rumors to crack this point. If this goes it should be a duck and cover moment. My technical read of this is that we experienced either a real breakdown and much worse is to come or this was a blow off excessive move bottom that is about to bounce back possibly as high as to close the second gap near 1.30.

Tuesday, May 15, 2012

Afternoon Delight 05/15/12 -

A couple of quick things and then off to the charts -

1) This is the big one - Some of you know we'll run out of money as early as August AGAIN and that our government will be surviving off it's pensioners for the third time in as many years. Now that's a great way to run a business isn't it. Of course, "Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner, speaking today at the Peterson conference, said lawmakers won’t need to raise the debt limit until early 2013. He said the executive branch has “tools” that can push back the deadline for raising the debt limit."

You need to read  Boehner Demands Spending Cuts for Any Debt Limit Increase - Bloomberg, because it has a nice template for the massive political battles that are set to rage in the coming months.  You may also want to see Boehner lays down markers on year-end 'fiscal cliff'.

2) Back in March I penned Your Retirement Funds Will Be Confiscated Eventually. It was kinda popular post. STB's favorite subject is the pension system and how the markets are a farce to hide its glaring failure from the public. Of course that combined with SS and MC and all the other debts of this once great nation (don't believe me - check out the U.S. National Debt Clock : Real Time) are the real problem that no one likes to discuss. I suggest you keep your heads up for any info surrounding the pension/retirement plan issues.

3) The EU is in deep shit and Cali has some serious issues.

Morning Charts 05/15/12 #SPX /ES

Running a bit late. Had some computer issues this morning, sot he post is not all that. Sorry. May not matter anyway what the charts have to say. Does the stick save come or not? That's pretty much all there is to it.

Minis just set a lower low and may be beginning their march to the 1300/1295 area. That is yet to be seen as the event of the day has not unfolded yet.

Minis 4hr - It is an ugly chart, but it is what it is. I have to back it out quite a bit to show you the support levels that are out there. Key levels - the next hole goes to 1313, 1300. The 200dma is at 1275 now and that works well with the HnS targt I have been showing. Then there is another hole down to 1264 and the open gap just below that.

Monday, May 14, 2012

Afternoon Delight 05/14/12 -

OK, tomorrow is G day. To sticksave or not to stick save. I have a sneaky feeling some crony greedy ass bastard will come up with the cash to put off the bloodbath another month. When have they not in the last 4 years? If they don't, I'm leaving the desk and going to the grocery and hardware store to top off the supplies at home.

We here at STB always love to watch the smart money and today is no exception. White the equity traders chase alpha and greed drives their train, the bond traders calmly left the building. "No-Brainer Trade Of The Year" Plummets As Bondholders Duck Ahead Of Possible Greek Bankruptcy Tomorrow | ZeroHedge. If the bond traders are wrong, the cover and subsequent ramp in equities will be tremendous. Caution is advised on both sides of the trade.

Nothing much more to comment on till tomorrow. So many questions are going to be answered. Well, at least for now.

All is well nothing to see here - this pattern 4 days in a row is quite normal - Wed, Thur, Fri and Mon.

Shanky Does the EUR/USD

Here is how it all falls out -

Monthly - Note green LT support throughout the charts.

Morning Chartapalooza - 05/14/02 #SPX /ES

This is all you need to know and what you need to look out for - this is it - Greece Virtually Out Of Cash One Day Before Critical Bond Maturity | ZeroHedge. I was telling you about this last week and how this is not a domestic bond issue that can be papered over, but an international issue where default could send real shockwaves. The minis just cracked key support and are literally hanging on a cliff right now.

SPX Daily - With the 10yr going sub 1.79 that's not good. Two options on this chart - 1)either the red neckline was it and were about to hit my second target of 1300 to 1295 or they are going for one final push. They always seem to get these at their darkest hours.

Shanky Does the Dollar

Dollar Monthly - The range from $80 to $81 is key. Note that from 1992 thru 2007 the dollar stayed above this point. Now price is wedging (green) with that level at the heart of the wedge.

Friday, May 11, 2012

Open Weekend Post 05/12-13/12

You know the drill - share the love and the knowledge.

Has potential to be either really quiet or really noisy for news this weekend. the big event this next week will be from Greece.

I'll update charts and see what I can come up with. Of course I will post anything worthwhile if I find it.

Minis at the close Friday - Note this is not healthy price action. Lots of lines as I try and decipher this range bound mess. 1341 is obviously key.

60m - one of the messiest charts you will see from me, but all those lines are there for a reason -

1m - and the wild ride Friday.

Everyone have a great weekend!

GL and GB.

Morning Charts 05/11/12 #SPX #ES

Running a bit late this AM ,sorry. If I don't include charts you want to see in the post, please ask in the commentary and I will cue you up whatever you want to see. My stockcharts issues have been cleared up. Thanks for all the notes and support on that issue. Nice to know so many care and are watching.

Well, JPM slips, no biggie. My take on it - When they control and operate in an unregulated world and there is a proven US taxpayer backstop for any mistake (no matter how big) who gives a crap how many billions you lose? You can read the posts on ZH for the details.

Minis 30m - Struggling for form down here at 1340 support. Range bound working   off overbought conditions and the dailys especially forming pos divergences. Market has every right to bust support and make the next move to 1300/1295 area, but will they allow it? I bet the EWT folks are having a blast counting this mess.

Thursday, May 10, 2012

Afternoon Delight 05/10/12 -

All we're doing now is waiting out the coming nasty chain of events (esp with Greece) and then to see how bad it gets and how the Fed reacts. My long term readers know that I have always preferred a crash then QE method. Today we got, "the admittedly ursine Faber reflects on the US (slowing of revenue growth and the real linkages to European stress) noting that unless we get a huge QE3, there will be "a crash, like in 1987" noting he believes we have seen the highs for the year; on the likelihood of QE3 (agreeing with us that the Fed won't act unless asset markets plunge first); on Greece's exit of the Euro and whether policy-makers can manage the exit properly "bureaucrats in Brussels and the media are brainwashing everybody that if Greece exited the euro, it would be a disaster." Marc Faber Sees A 1987-Like Crash Approaching | ZeroHedge

The waves of dreadful news keep flowing and don't look like they are going to stop. Like I said, we're in wait and see mode.

Minis - Blue wedge up and 1360 resistance. Big stick save pop after the close to save a breakdown.

GL and GB!

Shanky's Morning Chartapalooza 05/10/12 #SPX #ES #GOLD #OIL #DOLLAR #Silver #EUR/USD

Let's get it on! Listen to all Inc's ol school rap on the AD last night and now you gettin sum N.W.A style STB in da monin - hit it.

Gold - Blue channel down into the depths of support diagonals off the '08 lows. Better make a break north soon or hold 1569 cause the next stop will be 1470. No fret, just makes for better buying opp. Let it fall. Please fall. STB wants to gets mo gold at lower prices. It is the only thing worth owning these days (with a side of silver).

Wednesday, May 9, 2012

Afternoon Delight 05/09/12 - The Last Stick Save?

Good evening. Nice to be back penning another AD. I enjoyed my break and am ready to bring you all the delightful news you are used to getting in the evening (but have not in a while). I had to take some time off from the AD's cause I just could not bring myself to write them.

You see, things really suck right now. Much more than normal suck. Things are imploding and the French and Greece elections may have been the exogenous events that I have been calling for since I began blogging. Yes, those events that topple the dominoes that rip the markets from the control of the Fed and bring everything crashing down the way it deserves.

If you don't believe me, the I want you to hear the truth from the statesman Nigel Farage: "The EU Titanic Has Now Hit The Iceberg" | ZeroHedge. "Farage pulls no punches but in three minutes provides a clear picture of just how concerned anyone who is not merely a head-in-the-sand status-quo muddle-through'er should be with regards Europe: "It is a European union of economic failure, of mass unemployment, and of low growth"" Please watch the video and let it sink in what he is telling you.

Morning Chartapalooza II - 05/09/12 #SPX $ES #Silver #EUR/USD #Dollar #AUD/JPY

Cause you all like the Chartapaloozas so much - here we go again. I told you for weeks everything was set up to explode/implode.

Minis - Triple bottom at 1342 or will there be worse? My call for 1341 wound up being pretty good. Now my caution at this level is proven warranted. At this time everything is pointing to 1260/70 area, and I'm not giving up on 1170 just yet.

Tuesday, May 8, 2012

Morning Chartapalooza 05/08/12 #Gold #Oil #Dollar #EUR/USD #SPX $ES

No commentary today, just a bunch of charts. A major rant is coming soon. Let's just say I decided to stay quiet this morning cause I have nothing nice to say about anything.

Gold - All sorts of technical levels should be driving gold traders crazy right now (not to mention those pesky speculators).

First a monthly LT chart so you can see the where the white channel support that price is testing right now starts.

Monday, May 7, 2012

Morning Market Summary and Charts 05/07/12 #SPX $ES

Well, I guess a change in leadership is not always welcomed. Hey, look at what we got a little over three years ago. Our move to socialism has proven to be nothing but a spending spree, job loss ridden, freedom stealing and exponentially crony run government that serves the corporate elite. The markets don't like it all that much when their elitists insider crony system loses its pawns. I'm pretty sure that The Fed, ECB and the BIS are pretty much shitting in their pants right now and that's not because they got hold of some bad Mexican food over the holiday weekend.

We've discussed for a long long time that Greece is nothing but a (like AIG after TARP funded our banks) conduit to funnel bailouts thru to the EU banks. So, if Greece changes their stance, leaves the EU and tells the elites to go F off, the whole system crashes and the derivative dominoes start falling.

What about France? Sadly the Merkosy era has ended. What happens when a three legged stool loses a leg? Not good is it? The markets expressed their displeasure last night in the results of these elections.

Friday, May 4, 2012

Open Weekend Post 05/05/12 - Cinco De Mayo

Cinco De Mayo putas/perras!

Yo pensaba que iba a hacer el OWP en español este fin de semana. Vamos a celebrar el día de los mexicanos una patada en el culo francés (que, como todos hemos encontrado no es tan difícil de hacer).

Compartir el amor y la gente de conocimiento.

Disfrute el fin de semana. La próxima semana debe ser interesante.

es posible que desee usar este link para ayudar a determinar lo que dije anteriormente.

Minis 30m -

tener un gran fin de semana.

GL and GB!

Morning Market Summary and Charts 05/04/12 #SPX $/ES

"Expectations were for an increase in non farm payrolls of 160,000, and a 8.2% unemployment rate. We got +115,000, and 130,000 privates. Unemployment rate at 8.1%, lowest since January 2009." US Added 115,000 Jobs In April, Huge Miss Of Expectations; Unemployment Rate 8.1% | ZeroHedge

So, what does all this mean. Well, I've been listening to the CNBS propaganda machine this morning (for the second time in about 9 months, I hate them) and thankfully they have me feeling all good and giddy about these stellar results. That's not true. What is true is their reporting has been nothing but confusing and misleading and I feel worse for having turned on that spin infested crap spewing machine (sans Santelli).

Market reaction did me no good either. Obviously the number was leaked and just before 8:30 the minis fell from 1386 to 1380 in a millisecond. Then the actual announcement hit and futures fell as low as 1378.25. Must have been a bad initial reaction cause 4 minutes and 11 points later the minis hit 1389. Where are they now at 8:49? Why down at 1381 of course 8 points off the high. Nice. All is well. Markets are functioning normally. Just a horrific miss well below everyone's lowest estimate and the markets surge 11 points. WTF? This is stupid.

Thursday, May 3, 2012

Afternoon Delight 05/03/12 - Well?

Is it time to duck and cover? We'll see with the NFP in the morning. To be truthful it all depends on what the Fed wants. How will the markets react to a disappointing number? Will they rejoice because it brings near surety of additional levitating QE? Will they fall apart as the charts have been indicating they will? If so, how far will the Fed let it slide?

Major support was basically decimated today, but the first support under the support diagonal buts has held. As I asked today, under what level do the sell orders sit?

Minis 5m - Here is the wedge I was talking about today. Pink was major support. 1386 that is holding now is first support. 1374 is next.

Morning Market Summary and Charts 05/03/12 #SPX $/ES

Not much for me to say this morning. I don't feel like beating the dead economic/financial horse today. Things are really bad, some get it and believe and other simply roll along in their cocoons and pretend not to notice. Funny the psychology behind the actions of individuals. Sad that we've become a nation of wussies that will let the government just do anything they like as long as they stay out of our way. Do you get the paradox there and where we're headed? Do you see the problem?

It is all a bunch of horse shit as nothing can be determined without knowing what the Fed wants to do. I hope you understand what the term centrally planned means. This is a hard thing to grasp for Americans. Bottom line is they control the flow of data and that data will represent what they desire in terms of strength or weakness which in turn either does  or does not give them the green light to ease further. Pretty simple stuff if you can allow yourself to believe in the controlled centrally planned state of the USSA.

Since January STB has been on the theme of patience, form and follow the Fed. Not to long ago I added wait for a catalyst to the end of that statement. About a month ago the charts really started to shows signs a top was coming. About a week ago all the charts aligned across many markets. With Twist ending in June I think the markets have precious little time left before this correction.

SPX Daily -

Wednesday, May 2, 2012

Afternoon Delight 05/02/12 - The Event?

OK, so is this a candidate for what I have been so concerned about and what the charts have been pointing to over the past few weeks?

Previewing Tomorrow's Floating Rate Treasury Launch | ZeroHedge

"When we last discussed what now appears certain to be a TBAC announcement tomorrow that Floating Rate Treasurys are about to be launched by the US during the Treasury, we cautioned, using an analysis by the IMF's Singh, that "the US Treasury may be telegraphing to the world that it, or far more importantly, the TBAC, is quietly preparing for a surge in interest rates." We then continued that "What is also obvious is that if the TBAC is quietly shifting the market into preparation mode for "a steady (or rocky) rise in rates from near zero to a "neutral" fed funds rate of 400 bps and a "normal" 5 percent yield on 2 year U.S. Treasuries" as the IMF warns, then all hell is about to break loose in stocks, as by now everyone is aware that without the Fed liquidity, and not just liquidity, but "flow" or constant injection of liquidity, as opposed to merely "stock", VIX will explode, equities will implode, and all hell would break loose."

EUR/USD, Dollar, Gold, Oil Charts


Weekly - Note pink channel down. Green support is off 2002 lows, so that's major support.

Daily - Closer view of the near term channel into LT support.

Morning Market Summary and Charts 05/02/12 #SPX $ES

I don't put much if any weight in the ADP number after all the government is just going to set the employment figures where they want/need anyway. So as Zero Hedge infers but but but the ISM number yesterday?

"However, on an apples to apples basis, one thing is certain: record warm winter payback is a bitch. And finally, that whole Obama export renaissance is not doing all too hot: goods producing sector: -4,000 in April, while manufacturing jobs declined by -5,000. But, but, the soaring ISM..... oh forget it." ADP Misses Big, Prints Lowest Increase Since September; Manufacturing Jobs Post Shocking Decline | ZeroHedge

As we all know putting faith or believing any number you see from the establishment and thinking they are real is quite the mistake. You have a better shot at having a Unicorn or a fairy showing up to take you on a trip to fantasy land.

As I have been discussing for a few weeks now the charts (regardless of actual price action) are across the board set up for an event of some sort. It is rare that all the stars align, and TA is calling for a substantial move south. Yes, I know, follow the Fed is what I say, and I still stick with that, but the patience and form part of my statement are starting to weigh heavy.

Tuesday, May 1, 2012

Afternoon Delight 05/01/12 - Strategic Relocation

After hearing the extensive excellent interview Alex Jones did today with Joel Skousen Chief Editor of world Affairs Brief and author of Strategic Relocation: North american Guide to Safe Places I thought I would share with you a recent interview AJ did with JS. Read about Joel here.

Some of you may think this is nuts and a bit far fetched. That's fine. All I have to say is it is better to have knowledge than not. If things go horribly wrong do you want to be huddled with the masses or have a safe route and a safe place to go? How's your home set up? What are the safest and most dangerous places after a total collapse or world war?

I suggest you listen carefully to this video and that you catch the replay of AJ's show today with JS as the guest. Fascinating stuff.

"It's easy to dismiss these threats during times of peace and prosperity but they are real, and the probably of such events coming to pass increases every year. Strategic Relocation: North American Guide to Safe Places is an in-depth analysis you need to plan ahead and select the safest areas for you and your loved ones to live. The 3rd Edition features a complete, newly added section on foreign relocation possibilities plus individual analysis on every state and province in North America. The new color maps show military base locations, city population densities, terrain satellite images, private/public land availability, and much more. This book will help you look ahead for potential threats that most other people fail to see or choose to ignore. It contains a complete discussion of the strategies and relocation contingencies that will help you avoid or mitigate each of the major modern threats, from natural disasters to economic collapse to nuclear war. Strategic Relocation: North American Guide To Safe Places 

Secrets of Survival with Joel Skousen - YouTube

GL and GB!

Morning Market Summary and Charts 05/01/12 #SPX $ES

May Day - for those that do not know about May Day I suggest you read May Day - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia  "As Europe became Christianized the pagan holidays lost their religious character and either changed into popular secular celebrations, as with May Day, or were merged with or replaced by new Christian holidays as with Christmas, Easter, Pentecost and [[All Saint's Day][citation needed]]. In the twentieth century, many neopagans began reconstructing the old traditions and celebrating May Day as a pagan religious festival again."

So, we advanced from pagan celebrations to Christian ones. That is a bit symbolic of these times except we seem to be doing the reverse. Our government is truly corrupt and the police state is growing more each day stealing our freedoms one by one. We as sheeple appear to be less reverent than in the past now worshiping the golden idols of debt and credit.

We no longer primarily serve God. We serve ourselves in our quest for the easy life. Toil has been replaced by entitlement. It appears that the masses are more than willing to choose the easy route, entitlement, in exchange for loss of freedom.