Tuesday, April 30, 2013

Morning Charts 04/30/13 SPX /ES

It is like watching a bad horror flick. You know what's going to happen to the really hot blonde chick when she goes into the shed outside after dark, but you want her to stay alive cause she's the only thing worth watching in the movie (ladies you may substitute what you may there). Substitute the really hot chick with the awesomeness of the debt bubble. The synthetic beauty of the past 10 years resembles the enhanced medically adjusted body of the tight t-shirt wearing blonde, it ain't real. Yeah, it's there and you are enjoying it, but it's not natural. Just like her body being manipulated to deceive you everything economically has been as well.

Some years later and a few miles down the road, things start to show some wear. In this case they are on their 18th or so enhancement and are starting to resemble Justin the real life Ken Doll. Want to see the poster children for or economy today?

There you go folks. Look into the eyes of reality. Controlled, manipulated, self absorbed, self serving out of touch, lost in space, danger Will Robinson danger situation we've created. For all I know this may be the next first couple. We've done worse I suspect. Why not? These two perfectly peg the motif. Greed, total control, fake and totally manipulated. Welcome to reality today.

On to the markets -

Monday, April 29, 2013

Morning Charts 04/29/30 SPX /ES

Based on the propaganda this morning it appears all is well in the land of unicorns and fairy tales, so I will just move along to the charts. Never mind any of the headlines on the Economic Collapse blog, they are just pure fear mongering and should be ignored. Let's just roll with what the state tells us today and be good little sheeple shall we? I'll let the charts do my talking this morning.

Daily SPX - Negative divergences continue to worsen and extend their run. Overbought, overthrown and basically over everything, the markets are in a very dangerous spot. Technicals schmechnicals, the Fed has everything under control and 1600 is just above and in their sights. We all know they can't let the markets even correct normally at this point without causing major panic, so expect more of the same till it isn't.

Minis 60m - Here is the deal - near term blue channel support is supporting price driving it up into a wall of three older resistance diagonals. Price is getting pinched here and it will have to break one way of the other. Today or in the morning we'll know what the result will be at the coming inflection point.

Friday, April 26, 2013

Open Weekend Post 04/27-28/13

You know the drill, share the love and the knowledge.

Not much to say or see. I'll post a chart sometime when I find something worth looking at.

Enjoy the weekend,

GL and GB!

Morning Charts 04/26/13 SPX /ES

Round trippin. At least we did not have to get felt up and abused by the TSA on this journey. The SPX rotated positions from on to off to on again. Since the April 05 lows, price has been in a rather violent and large consolidation phase. Ranging from the euphoric nosebleed 1597 to the fear ridden 1535 low, the markets are beginning to show some wear and tear. And no, this is not a chart of the fall from the '07 top to now although it looks very similar.

This is not kind and not meant to belittle anyone or any incident, but the markets resemble a Bangladesh factory. Lots of cracks and unsafe working conditions, but everyone is forced in to work every morning regardless of the situation. Just like with this factory, a collapse will happen soon enough, and the bosses and owners will be nowhere to be found in the aftermath.

Please remember all those affected in the horrific incidents in Bangladesh. One hates to draw parallels at times, but sometimes it takes a disaster to shine the light where no one has been looking. In this case you see the global system literally crumbling from ground up. The poorest of the poor working to survive in dreadful and unsafe conditions so we can have affordable clothing.

Well, that's the MSM spin. More like working so Apple, Walmart and the Targets of the world can sell their wares at the best possible margins in order to satisfy Wall Street, and so the corporate overlords can make millions. Greed rules. He who dies with the most toys, no matter how many people are left dead or in ruins in their wake, wins. The MSM will not dare spin it that way though. Who supplies all those advertising dollars?

The cycle and systems are breaking down. The inequality is getting far to dispersed. The wealth distribution has turned into wealth confiscation, and that has spread up the chain from the poor and is now bleeding into the middle class. The 1% are starting to literally drain the support system dry. A reset is coming. you can see the signs everywhere. How many more factories have to collapse, how many more jobs have to be lost, how many more children have to starve, how many more bank accounts have to be confiscated and controlled before we've all had enough and revolt against the governments and corporate overlords?

And what will happen to the markets when either A) we revolt or B) they've put us all in the poor house? Well, we've already reached B, so I figure A will follow soon enough.

Update:  - And when grief turns to rage -

On to the markets -

Minis 4hrs - Blue channel up into resistance just under the round number 1600 and just shy of an official double top. Indicators on the lower time frame charts are starting to set some rather nasty looking negative divergences. What those mean these days is anyone's guess.

Minis 15m - A more detailed look at the channel and support/resistance.

The two P's folks, patience and prepare. Like TD said in  the NANEX flash crash post earlier this week, did you have a chance to sell into that 150 plunge? Don't think so, and when this thing begins to let go you may wish you were not so greedy yourself.

As usual, more to come below.

Enjoy the weekend.

GL and GB!

Thursday, April 25, 2013

Off The Deep End - Morning Charts 04/25/13 SPX /ES

Well, I've finally seen someone respectable come close to predicting what I think the markets will do. With 450 SPX, 10k gold and negative 10yr reates Albert Edwards Bleak Crystal Ball comes awfully close but still may not be dire enough. I've had a SPX 550 target in Sept 2015 on the books for some time now, but that's just a technical point in time. What was Albert's mistake? Assuming there will still be a stock market after the crash.

Crazy talk! Crazy I tell you. Nope, just weighing all the possibilities. First let me ask, do we have a market now? Well .... do we? Really? I see a market there. I see companies listed and prices going up (not down of course). The MSM and CNBSers tell me all is well and to get into the markets. What's not real about it?

The following picture from NANEX and ZH tells you exactly, precisely what is not real about the market.

"Presented with little comment aside to note that based on a tweet, the 'deeply liquid' US equity market collapsed instantaneously as all those liquidity-providing 'algos' jumped ship...
The lower pane shows the market depth disappearing courtesy of Nanex."

And TD goes on to note,

"The good news, if indeed this was merely a test for "the big one", is that everyone managed to sell ahead of everyone else. Right?"

Folks, the only thing that is real about this market are the central bank's unregulated front running HFT algo bots trading the $85 billion per month Fed influx that provide thousands of false sub second market lifting bids that are designed to get you to pay more for every share traded. What the chart above proves is that when the machines leave the market, there is no market anymore.

So, what happens when (not if) the central banks fail and go bankrupt and the machines are turned off? That is a multi-tiered trick question that I do not have time to discuss, but you get the picture. Let me rephrase that, what happens when the global financial system collapses? Ooops, another dodgy question. Do you get where I am headed?

More hogwash you say? Balderdash! The global financial system will not fail and all the global conglomerates will be just fine. (Here I/we jump off to the deep end) Well maybe, but what if the global government structure changes? Care to tell me how much influence special interest groups hold over our government at this time? Who controls who? (I'm about to go all Robo-Cop/Running Man on you)

One word rules the world and controls everything, greed. So what if the end game is they want the shareholders out of the way and want to control it all? Will there need to be a market then? What if after the crash and everything is gone, governments decide to nationalize everything. The Manchurian Manbat just recently updated several presidential directives allowing him to nationalize anything at his whim (he removed the part about national security and replaced that with basically "when he feels like it"). Will there be a need for a market then?

Bottom line is your jobs will be safe, but instead of working for say KO you will be working for the USSA or something like that. You wages will be "donated" to the system and you will receive everything you need to survive from "them". This will all happen after the global pandemic wipes out about one third of the world's population (think bird flu but 1,000 times worse) and balances sustainability and productivity. Wars? After the next one there will be no need for a military anymore and the forces and weapons will be turned on the citizens of the earth. Again, I've gone all Robo Cop on you. Hey, it could be worse. A lot worse. I could have gone Mad Max. In either case - there will not be a need for a market.

I hope you enjoyed that rosy trip into the future. Maybe now you may grasp why the gold rush is on. Owning paper fiat or digital 1's and 0's won't do you much good in that future will it? But believe what you will. It is a hard line to cross. Hey, at one time it was considered lunacy to even contemplate the largest market in the universe could be rigged, but here we are today. Truth stranger than fiction?

On to the markets -

Wednesday, April 24, 2013

Morning Charts 04/24/13 SPX /ES

What's so sad is that the steam is picking up from the government's end on the nanny/police state development. It sickens me to think of the world my children will inherit and the lifestyle they will be forced to live compared to what I have been able to enjoy. Something about them eating GMO foods and living in a totalitarian state dominated by corporate interests serving as a debt serf to further their survival does not really appeal to me.

The Boston bombing was a horrific incident. Skipping the who dun it, Craft security everywhere, unconstitutional home invasion, armed forces everywhere searching for a 19 year old part of the story; I'll fast forward to the constitutional rape that will come out of this mess. Other than the mass calls for more gun control and the other idiotic whining coming from DC, the worst thing I have seen came yesterday afternoon when none other than our last ray of hope for liberty Rand Paul delivered this,

""I've never argued against any technology being used when you have an imminent threat, an active crime going on," Paul said. "If someone comes out of a liquor store with a weapon and fifty dollars in cash. I don't care if a drone kills him or a policeman kills him.""

When the last lovers of liberty and staunch supporters of the Constitution start to fall, you know the end game is near. Rand, are things so bad in DC that you have had to join the dark side? When Rand endorsed Mitt, I thought something was up and now this? 2016? I don't think so. Not after this.

If you missed America: #1 in Fear, Stress, Anger, Divorce, Obesity, Anti-Depressants, etc.. you need to read it.

"The following is a collection of facts and statistics that prove that America is being absolutely consumed by fear, stress, anger and depression..."

We discuss social mood, awareness and such in the comments below almost daily sharing our experiences with the public. It appears to me that the public is finally beginning to internalize the economic crisis and the effects are beginning to show. After years of denial, it appears the stress of losing the easy route the entitled masses are waking up from their medicated slumber to find that reality is not all it appears to be.

So what happens when they all awaken and find that the banks have stolen everything (as in everything)? Now you see the need for the mass expansion for the police state and the likes of Rand Paul selling out to the corporate elite. May I remind you that you are an American and not a terrorist.

A quick note from STB field reporter Inc on the price of silver - can you say a 50 to 70% premium on the street over spot? If you do not understand the disconnect between paper and physical on the metals markets. If you do not understand why if you own paper that is all you really own. If you do not understand that if you own paper you are going to get wiped out read this post from Zero Hedge.

On to the markets -

Tuesday, April 23, 2013

Morning Charts 04/23/13 SPX /ES

What's wrong with the following statement?

"Our bias is to expect further declines in gold prices on the combination of continued ETF outflows as conviction in holding gold continues to wane as well as our economists’ forecast for a reacceleration in US growth later this year."

That's from the Goldman Closes Gold Short post on Zero Hedge. As we like to say do as they do not as they say. Maybe Bloomberg still allows Big Gulps to be served at the GS commissary? Don't know, but whatever they are smoking (hydro, synthetic, imported ..) it must be some good shit laced with some serious hallucinogens. I guess that's what it takes when you can apparently lie to your customer base time and time again for your benefit over theirs. Ha! That sounds like our  government.

Anyway, last time I checked the demand for gold has only increased after the fraud committed to the market last week. I suggest you read Aftershock on ZH as well. There the question is asked, "If the FBI can track down two homicidal Chechen nobodies inside of forty-eight hours from their Boston bombing caper, you kind of wonder how come the Bureau can’t detect the odor of racketeering, insider trading, and wire fraud in this month’s orchestrated smackdown of the gold futures markets, including the parts played by the Federal reserve, one or more too-big-to-fail banks, self-interested big money players such as George Soros, slumbering regulators at the Commodities Futures Trading Commission, and tractable editors at The Wall Street Journal and The New York Times? "

TBTJ folks - To Big To Jail is alive and well, and as long as it is all you can expect is more of the same from the TBTF's. It won't be long till there is no gold left to buy on the street, street gold will have a 50% premium to paper, of course at that point they will have crushed the miners to oblivion and GS will still be promoting their short thesis. Maybe the new STB mantra should be "what doesn't make any sense makes perfect sense"? Ah, the new normal.

And to give you that real warm and fuzzy feeling this morning (as if this post has not been rosy enough!) I suggest you read Boston Terror Narrative Falling Apart from Washington's blog and watch the police perform "voluntary" raids on homes in Watertown. Then you need to read this from infowars.com coverring unwarranted searches and the end of the 4th Amendment. Is it any wonder they would not let the press into cover the search? Welcome to your future folks. Marshall law is here. This should make you sick. Wake up.

On to the markets - Not really sure why I continue to cover the markets and chart the farce? Call me a creature of habit and a believer in reality.

Monday, April 22, 2013

Morning Post 04/22/13 SPX /ES

Earth Day! Oh joy! Go hug or plant a tree and then ride your bike to work. Seriously, we need to look out for mother nature. She's all we got and if we all don't do our part to make things better, then ....uh....not sure where we will live. I'll make a simple request, if you don't recycle - do. It is easy and although not much, it is something.

On this earth day - deal with me here you know this is one of my pet peeves and you know that I think disclosure will come at a time when the greatest distraction is needed the most from the coming financial collapse - the movie Sirius will be debuting. You can visit the site Siriusdisclosure.com for more info. Yes, I'm talking ET, disclosure and the latest film from Dr. Steven Greer. If you missed the first Disclosure Project you can see it here. Sirius is round two. Dr. Greer has assembles even more experts and evidence to try and force disclosure that ET's exist. Hopefully this new information will get us closer to the admittance we've been visited.

Nice to know we made it thru the weekend without any more disasters. I guess round one is over. I suggest you realize that these incidents are most likely not over. I do suspect more in number and greater severity to come. I'm gonna hold my tongue on the Marathon incident. I will say I was surprised that the second subject was taken alive.

I suggest that you pay close attention to the disconnect between the demand for and price of physical gold and what the governments want you to believe via their manipulation of the price of the shiny metal. What the MSM tells you is happening and what's really happening are two very different realities. Most know that I think you should be (have been) diversifying some portion of your assets from the dollar into physical (not paper) gold. the last move to save the petro-dollar is underway, but I do not believe they can save it.

Gold - /YG - Gold could have reached a bottom. Some have called the 1300 level as the low point. I'm not sure. As desperate as the Fed is and as corrupt as the gold trade is, it could fall further. I'm guessing 1050 would be the absolute low it could make under severe manipulation schemes. This is where China and Russia really started coming in hot and heavy after the crash. I do not think they will allow these price points to be violated. Bottom line, physical is running off the shelves and selling at a premium to spot. Forget this chart. Continue to DCA into physical gold and silver. I prefer coins in both.

Friday, April 19, 2013

Open Weekend Post 04/20-21/13

You know the drill, share the love and the knowledge.

What a week! And in the last four days of the week (with all that went down) the minis just hung in the low 40's. Think they are protecting something? Of course the minis sit precariously above the 40 support area and right at the near term resistance diagonal, pinched into a must go one way or the other on a Friday close. thanks a lot guys. Appreciate it.

The bigger picture -

Morning Post 04/19/13 SPX /ES

Not much of a post this morning - I'm out of emotions and words right now.

Minis 60m - Backtest of the green channel support at 38% retracement near 1554. A move to 69 and the 61% retracement over the next month would make for a nice right shoulder (best seen on my 60m cash chart).

60m SPX - Possible HnS forming and a good look at NT support.

SPX Daily 13/34 - a little something I whipped up last night as I rebuilt every 13/34 chart in the chartbook.

Thursday, April 18, 2013

Possibly My Most Important Post Ever

Not sure how to address everything that is going down at the moment. Again, first and foremost, STB readers need to say prayers for all those in harms way or affected via the horrific tragedies of this past week.

The Marathon and plant explosions combined with all the other bomb scares,  anthrax mailings, empty packages and trucks, communication disruptions at a time when the gold market was hijacked following the Cyprus crime and the markets are apparently topping is way too much of a coincidence for me. You need to read Is Someone Trying To Crate Nationwide Panic ...Like in 2001 from WB (and that was written before the explosion last night).

False flag or intervention from above or below, this globe is in meltdown mode. Mass animal deaths and bird flu in China, increases in multitude and magnitude of earthquakes, global flooding, drought and starvation, plague like spawns, sinkholes everywhere; this is more than just increased coverage due to modern media. When mother nature gets in on the act, you best wake up and pay attention. (and I did not even bother to get into all the solar issues that abound)

Governments are out of control and no longer serve their constituents. They serve the banking overlords. They serve the banks that feed off of our misery and conflict. We're in a time of three active types of warfare are going on at once. Currency, electronic and ground wars are all being fought right now. The banks make money via financing both sides of every conflict and thru the inflation and trade in specific items like oil and weapons used to fight the wars. They win coming and going and have done it for centuries.

Sadly the most important war we Americans face is the one with our government. The war of disinformation. I've been telling you the markets were no more than a distraction to reality for years now. They cover up the rotting carcass that was this once great nation. The market's glory and all time highs covers up the horrific scene of the vulture bankers scurrying to fight over the remaining bits of meat and innards left on America's carcass.

When the market's lose their luster and the veil is drawn back, the Americans are not going to like what they see one bit. When Americans finally remove their self righteous and self serving heads from their backsides to see what's really been happening, all hell is going to break loose. This is exactly why Greenspan said the markets were the most important thing on the planet right now. The markets provide the illusion that all is well when it isn't.

I've warned that the disinfo war was raging and that it would escalate to false flag events. Welcome to the show. I warned yesterday that the Marathon event (FF or not) was the first of many to come and that they would need to increase in magnitude to accomplish the governments goal. Well, it took less than 24 hours for that statement to come to pass. The worst part, they are just beginning. There will be more and larger events to come. (and remember I believe UFO disclosure is coming)

Why? As I have stated, they must galvanize this nation. They must put us in rally mode. They have to get us completely and so centered on nationalism that whatever they ask, we will do "for the country". Folks, this is the greatest setup in global history. The banks are using the government to set us up for the greatest theft of all time - the US retirement system and possibly every dollar in every account in the nation. Total capital control.

Why do you think the gun grab is coming on so hot and heavy all resulting from (although horrific) a few incidents and mainly Sandy Hook and Aurora? Why do you think they have shut off the flow of ammunition to the nation? Wake up people. For the crime they want to commit (think Cyprus on steroids times 1,000), we can not be armed.

Is there a bright side? The failure yesterday of the gun legislation was possibly the greatest victory for the American public since the revolutionary war. This leaves a slight ray of hope that those in DC are not totally corrupt and do have some sort of American spirit left in them (well, slightly over half of them). That's a stupid statement cause you know every vote is bought and paid for, but is sounded good. Still, the gun laws were not passed. The best part? You know it pissed off the Manchurian Manbat to no end.

The other bright side? This false flag war will not only galvanize us as a nation but it will backfire on the powers that be and become the wake up call we so dearly need. I believe we're about to be woken up and not put further to sleep.

Folks if you can't see it coming you really need to take that bold step and start to believe. Believe that the "it can't happen here" can happen here. The bowling ball of totalitarianism is headed down the lane for a perfect strike if we don't stop them now. If you want to live under fascist socialist rule, be my guest, but I'm not standing for it. I'm not going to let them take this nation over without some sort of fight. Obama is not going to become our Putin.

I''m tired of being called a terrorist in my own country cause I have more than seven days of food in my home. I'm tired of surveillance of STB by the handles and various cyber attacks on my freedom of speech. I'm tired of having my constitutional rights raped and pillaged by a government that serves special interest groups over its citizens.

TSA, DHS, FBI, CIA, black ops you name it - they don't protect you they imprison you. The Army does not fight wars to protect you. It fights wars for Exxon, BP and to protect the opium trade so the laundered money can flow thru our insolvent banks. I'm tired of returning veterans being labeled terrorists. I'm tired of a lot of damn things.

It is time for us to come together and unite as a nation against out government and take our nation back. If we truly had our government in its original form of and for the people and not of and for the special interests - we can make this nation great again.

What is the best way to fight and take to country back? Simple, remove every dollar you have from the banks and they will all collapse. Like Max Keiser has been trying to get us all to do for years - take your money and buy physical - they will crumble in an instant. Simple and we win.

Now, all that said there will be no easy way out of the crisis. Pain, hardship and suffering will come. This may be even far worse if we decide to win. That will be the option. Like when Moses came down from the Mount with the Ten Commandments and found the Israelites had reverted to revelry and worshiping idol gods - We will be offered an easy path - the banksters path and succumb to their terrorism (evil) - or we can choose to retain our freedoms and suffer for 40 years in the desert (good). Either way it's gonna truly suck, but at least one way we retain our dignity and honor everything our forefathers fought for. The choice is yours.

On to the charts -

Wednesday, April 17, 2013

Mini - Chartapalooza - Morning Charts 04/17/13 SPX /ES

G-20 in session, Fed's Bulltard speaks at 9:30 - those two should be enough to have the bears on edge this morning. Of course China is growing (that is if you believe a word out of Big Red) and discussing easing policies. So what's not pleasing the markets? I thought we were in another BTFD moment where the bulls were going to slaughter the remaining bear population (if they are not extinct already).

Never mind that gold event this week. It was not a manipulative move along the lines of LIBOR rigging. If it was, who cares? No one will go to jail and it will only improve the dollar, so that's a win - win right? That's the way the economy and modern finance work these days isn't it? We cheat, we win, the banks retain control of everything and we move on like nothing happened. If this is not top of the food chain financial brilliance I don't know what is. When all there is left to do is cheat cause you control everything, then we're there.

The Bank of Countrywide/ML miss has me miffed a bit. How do you miss in an environment where accounting fraud is wholeheartedly accepted, trading profits are a can't miss and the Fed gives you 4% in free money? I mean at the least all they had to do was dig into their sizable bag of loan loss reserves like everyone else and Poof! they get a beat. Congratulations BofA, you have replaced Wells Fargo at the top of my next to be taken over list.

For some reason commodities are all of a sudden a hot topic. We here at STB have been noting their decline for months, but as usual the MSM shows up after the fact when things are already overheated. You are already hearing the gold has stabilized talk. Well if you can call the day after the drop as stabilized be my guest. This is akin to declaring Fukushima as stabilized.

Let's look at a few commodity charts -

Tuesday, April 16, 2013

Morning Charts 04/16/13 SPX /ES

OK, let's address the Marathon incident quickly. I say quickly cause I need to digest this more, catch any leftover facts and want to let this event settle a bit before incorporating it into the bigger picture. First and foremost prayers go out to all that were involved in the incident and their families. It is tragic that senseless events like this happen, but welcome to the world we live in.

First, where does this event fit into the bigger picture? At first glance this is a non-financial event although it did happen in a financial center, so it is not an or the STB "event".  It is an event that "they" will capitalize on however. This will most likely be the event that catapults the DHS into every sporting event. I'm sad to say, but the South Park TSA episode may not be too far fetched. This is an event that they will use to expand the police state dramatically.

False flag or real? Tough call at this point. We all should have our suspicions at this time. Patriot Day in Boston, the day gold fell off a cliff (or was it pushed?), the day the markets fell hard from the top, Japan's bond market issues, several devices that did not detonate and several other major factors were all temporarily erased from our memories by this event. STB has discussed  numerous times "distractions" and events that will be designed to galvanize the nation preparing us for what's to come.

Sadly, this was a minor, baby event. This was nothing compared to what is to come I hate to say. I think it is possible that we will begin to see a series of smaller events like this spring up around the country building fear in the public. These events will lead to an even further expanded police state. This will lead to an even larger single event that will basically have us (some of us) begging for total police control. I believe this will be the blueprint leading to the great confiscation of the retirement system by the big banks.

Who did it? Well, if a single troubled teen, a kid that played COD, was an outcast in school and was one several medications, then you know where I will lean on who was behind this. If they catch this person rather quickly that will add to the inside job theory. If a "patriot" did it then that will give the gun grabbers even more impetus to destroy the constitution.

Bottom line is distrust for the government is at an all time high now, and I believe it is for a good reason. The first question at the big press conference last night went something like, "was this an inside job to expand the TSA groping abilities". I was blown away when I heard this. Sure that sounds rather distasteful, but was it really? Today that has become a valid first question with the questions surrounding 9/11, the rise of the police state and the corporate dominated socialist government that no longer serves the people.

On to gold - A absolutely MUST READ piece from Paul Craig Roberts is the Assault on Gold Update. If you want all the dirt explained where anyone can get it, this is the post to read. This post takes you deep into the gold/currency manipulation and leaves you really wondering, can this really be happening? Where is the gold? When did it leave? Who had the backing to make such a trade? You have to read this post. I will do a separate post on gold and silver later today.

"I see the orchestrated effort to suppress the price of gold and silver as a sign that the authorities are frightened that trouble is brewing that they cannot control unless there is strong confidence in the dollar. Otherwise, what is the point of the heavy short selling and orchestrated announcements of gold sales in advance of the sales?"

On to the markets-

Monday, April 15, 2013

Morning Charts 4/15/13 SPX /ES

Happy Tax Day everyone. Yes it is the time of year that we good citizens donate a large portion of our hard earned dollars to support this (once) great nation. It is time for them to collect so the good the government does can perpetuate. Just  think of all the wonderful entitlement programs, the exceptional education system and the support of all those wars we are fighting your fiat goes to sustain. Without this the EBT toating, baby pumping, dope smoking, Escalade driving (think spinning rims), 60" TV watching democratic voter base would not be able to experience their God given rights as free loading Americans.

Never mind that budget thingy they keep discussing or the fiscal cliff that still exists. Never mind that they take in $2 trillion, spend $3 trillion, have $18 trillion in debt and have over $120 trillion in unfunded liabilities. This is sustainable for sure. Ceiling? What ceiling?  They have things well under control and austerity, capital controls and deposit confiscation will never come to this country. That "can't happen here".

Forget that the Fed prints and spends $85 billion a month to support ....well... everything. Never mind that we are the number one holders and purchasers of our own debt. Financially this country has never been in a happier place, all cuddled up in the cozy and safe arms of the Fed.

May I urge you to look closely at the US National Debt Clock.  While looking at that note the official unemployed is 11m and the actual unemployed is 21m. The other fact that stands out to me is that of the 315m living here 50m (17%) live in poverty.  The unfunded liabilities is on the bottom line. Feel free to point out your favorite observations in the comments below.

Hear that ticking? No that is not your circa 1980 Garfield clock on the wall. It is the global financial time bomb. If it sounds out of sync it is because there are multiple ordinances spread across the globe that can set off the imminent financial destruction. The one ticking the loudest this week is Japan. The country sporting the largest debt/GDP ratio (200%+) and with the greatest propensity to ease .....on/off/on..... is having some slight issues within its bond market. They can't seem to keep it open for long periods of time. Of course this should not concern you one bit.

I suggest you view "the drastic change in investor positioning in Japanese markets." Apparently we're about to get a real lesson in what too much free money can do to a stock market. Of course things here are different and that, again, "can't happen here". Maybe when an Ex-Soros adviser dumps almost all his exposure to Japan and gets short the bond markets someone should pay attention. Some would call this financial fear mongering. This man is a kook!

Never mind the above. All is well. Our government takes in enough money every year to support 66% of its spending. We can continue to finance the rest and mortgage our children's future making them perpetual debt slaves to the system. We really don't have a debt or spending or any real economic issues that can't be overcome. Our government is doing a great job. Look, the stock market would not be at all time highs and all those free Obama phones would not be everywhere if all was not well. So relax, they got it all under control.

On to the markets -

Friday, April 12, 2013

Open Weekend Post - 04/13-14/13

You know the drill, share the love and the knowledge.

Just a few charts for your inspection. Feel free to comment on them below. What was it I said in early August last year about entering a period of unprecedented manipulation?

WARNING! I believe we are about to enter a level of raw blatant and open market manipulation like never seen before. Very dangerous.

Shuh, that may have been an understatement.

SPX - 250 points and 20%

Morning Charts 04/12/13 SPX /ES

Bank earnings - SSDQ - ESP beat, revenue miss and earnings supported by loan loss reserves. Who could have seen that one coming? Do we really need to discuss this or what's coming the rest of earnings season any further? Revenue misses quarter after quarter for many years should eventually weigh on the system, right? I mean revenues ...... never mind, I totally forgot about the new economic paradigm where fundamentals don't matter anymore.

Meanwhile back in Cyprus .... They made a slight math error in the total bailout number. It is closer to $30 billion now. "Sorry for that accounting error last week which drastically understated their initial needs. My bad." said some Troika representative. Looks like that extension of capital controls (that just got re-extended) will be extended yet again. Why don't they just go ahead and tell the Cypriserfs the truth, capital controls are here to stay - forever or until the banks fail - and we know which of those will come first.

Even CNBS is reporting that The Euro Zone Crisis is Back - On Multiple Fronts. Let me see, if Cyprus is the template then deposit confiscation and capital controls and the forced sale of their gold at depressed prices to the banks and ..... well you get the picture. Now here come Portugal and Ireland - two more 105 pound armyless weaklings to pick on. Slovenia is apparently next on the bail-in bonanza.

Anyway, none of that matters here in the US. No austerity or capital controls here thank goodness (/s). The stock market is roaring and earnings season is off to a spectacular start. Now I'm not sure how our business leaders pull it off quarter after quarter with stunning data points like producer prices falling but retail sales falling the worst in months, but more power to them (even more /s). It's all good man. I'm sure glad that CPI is in line and there is no inflation out there (continuing the /s).

On to the markets -

OK, so we've got everyone and their brother on a top call? Not so fast some of the "experts" are on this new bull market breakout binge. So what is it? Whether it is a new bull market or a top does not matter. The markets are an illusion. They are the distraction to reality. They are 100% manipulated BS. You absolutely must to get this thru your head. Did you not register all the /s' above? Who gives a shit what the markets do? They are inconsequential to where we are headed. That said, and since we all need some sort of mundane thing to keep us entertained till everything goes BOOM!, let's look at some charts -

SPX Daily - There was a time that (even on a Friday) This would be a point I would be shorting with both hands. Not today as I never swing over weekends and don't trust the markets. The daily chart is either set up here for a major failure of more irrational overbought exuberance. See the divergence diagonals? Note the price increase yet now the indicators are hitting their near term resistance lines. This is a nasty set up for failure. That said, what used to be is not any longer. this is just the type of point they have raped recently leaving the technicians wadding up and throwing away another set of charts in utter disbelief. This is the type of point I have had to ignore several times already in my search for the next top.

Minis 60m - Near term support is gone as well as the 60m 200ma support here. First support is 1564 and then 1542. Those could come as quickly as they went this week.

On my disclosure as a distraction to the coming crisis theory - well, this is good, it is a step in the right direction, but I might as well have Maxine Waters riding shotgun. If this is the best my crowd could get to represent them, my hopes are seriously dwindling. Actually, they may be going in reverse. Read more about the Citizens For Disclosure meeting here.

Enjoy Master's weekend. I highly suggest that you at least take in the back nine on Sunday even if you are not a golf fan. This is possibly the most remarkable last quarter of a sporting event all year (and the raw beauty of Augusta National is breathtaking).

As usual more to come below. Back to back days of over 300 comments is an STB record. The crowd activity is certainly signifying something. Lots of noobs coming out of the closet providing some excellent new commentary adding to the already insightful community. Many thanks to all for their participation.

Have a good day.

GL and GB!

Thursday, April 11, 2013

Morning Charts 04/11/13 SPX /ES

I suggest you read Overnight Sentiment: Keep ignoring Fundamentals, Keep Buying at ZH. Like we were discussing in the comments section yesterday, the market's rise is proportionate to or a function of the economy's drift. The markets go up covering up the rot and decay of the economy underneath  Note that the inverse never happens here.

If you have not paid attention over the past several years, the debt crisis is out of control, the banks and corporations have hijacked the governments of the globe and are on their way to taking over everything not nailed down. The crisis has escalated to a point where direct confiscation of your assets is now becoming the template for the banks future livelihood.

Right now governments around the globe are writing legislation that allows the governments and banks to seize your assets and use them as they wish (pay their debt). So, in essence, what's your's is theirs. They have been stealing real estate for years now, but that does not spend like cash. The crisis has reached a point where they are confiscating bank savings to save the banks.

I highly suggest you (especially the Canadians) watch - Bail-in: the Birth of the New financial Order

I have written at length recently and in the past about the future confiscation of the $19 trillion retirement plan system. The privatization of the Social Security Trust (or the IOU's that are left in the trust) is squarely in their sights. It appears that every account on the globe, savings, retirement, investment, trust or whatever are now in jeopardy of being confiscated. If you don't think the foreclosure crisis, the LIBOR event, the O-MFG and PPG events and larger thefts like the one in Cyprus are precursor events to even larger ones, wake up.

The sad part is that even if they take every dollar their system will still collapse. We're facing true global financial meltdown. As I have warned you for years, get out of the dollar and away from the banks. If you think financial controls are not in place here in the US, go and try to withdraw a sum over $5000 and see if you can get it.

The dollar will lose its reserve currency status and will continue to be devalued, so why hold dollars? Like I've said for years, gold, silver, guns, ammo, food, water filters, and other items will be far more valuable one day to you and your family than your current dollar denominated accounts.

If you can't see this coming you are sorely mistaken. I'll ask, how many times can Cyprus go to the well? What's going to happen to their system the next time they need a bail-in and the next and the next cause they will? If you want to take control the only way to do it is to take your deposits and accounts away from the banks. This will kill the system and allow us to take back the globe from those in power.

On to the markets -

Wednesday, April 10, 2013

Morning Charts 04/10/13 SPX /ES

I'll tell you this, it gets harder every morning knowing where to start my posts. What there is to write about is nothing less than refuting lies with facts day after day. For example, here we go back into budget talks and the Buffet tax. Really? Now we're naming tax plans for investment grand master billionaires? This tax won't work either. The only tax that will work (other than no tax which they are considering in LA) is a flat tax, but that would not be fair of course. Anyone remember the fiscal cliff? It's still there.

How about the Japan wax on, wax off easing plan? It appears that they may have watched the Karate Kid one too many times. Maybe when you've eased so many times no one can keep count and your debt/GDP ratio is well over 200 playing Russian Roulette with your currency is an acceptable economic measure.

China? LMAO. We all know not to trust a word out of their mouths, but when it is this positive who cares if it is real or not!

Earnings - and I'll quote, "but the lowered expectations could make it easier for companies to beat analysts' estimates and propel the markets further." Now where have you heard that before? Do I need to repeat myself? Lower estimates into a QE lifetd all ships rise no matter how bad the news (remember worse is always better) and get the easy beat at the end. Brilliant! No pain and all the gain. Shall I translate that for the truly ignorant - allow me - What this says is that as conditions deteriorate the markets will go up.

Good luck bears. They got you coming and going. It appears they have an answer for everything - at this time. However, they won't forever. Patience my dear STB readers. Their game is coming to an end. We just have to get this last bull trap, BS, all is well euphoria out of the way (plus they don't have our guns yet, so the takeover can't commence till that is complete).

I mean, all is well. Sure there is this overwhelming concern of nations drifting into protectionism, and states are drafting laws to make gold and silver currency. Those are things you don't need to pay attention to. Those are extremist views that carry no water. Don't worry about bail-ins, deposit confiscation or retirement plan overhauls. That's all just everyday rhetoric.

N. Korea - Who knows. I prefer to think the millionaire playboy is rattling sabers to ease sanctions, but who knows?

Wake up people.

On to the markets -

Tuesday, April 9, 2013

Morning Charts 04/09/13 SPX /ES

Disney is about to lay off staff and small business is planning to hire 0%, but the Fed and the cronycrats keep their 2013 employment target at 7%. So, you care to tell me what's wrong with that picture? Never mind that, we all know what's wrong. Just another lie in a long line of BS that is spun by the socialist terrorists running the country now.

Sell in May and go away? That's about all I am hearing now. It seems most everyone is finally on the top call bandwagon. You'd never know it by price action though. Is it any wonder that the sane, the few remaining that can actually see reality, are going so crazy? From the charts to the economy to the political strife, everything is screaming top, yet technically they manage to bust through resistance, challenge a daily reversal candle, deny the negative divergences and hang on yet again against insurmountable odds. This is well beyond surreal folks.

Earnings season is upon us. Not sure if I need to give my quarterly rant again, so here is the abbreviated version I've been giving. Here is how the scam works. Earnings are controlled and manipulated by the powers that be. The analysts set the numbers. They are rosy and look for growth. This lifts spirits and markets. Then they all renig on those numbers a few weeks later lowering outlooks. This is fine cause they are doing it into a market that is lifted by QE, so no one is penalized. Then earnings season comes, no one remembers that the hurdles were lowered and a stream of  "beats" comes in like clockwork. Of course CNBS then praises how glorious everything is. Never mind the Repo, FASB gimmickry nor the plethora of government trickery dolling things up as well. All is well, move along, risk on baby!

Most long time followers know that I hate the markets during the first month or so of earnings season, because the uncertainty is overwhelming. I prefer clear paths. The next month or so will more resemble a the Mario Bros video game with potholes and monsters but all the power in the world to overcome every obstacle if you play the game right, and we all know who has the joystick.

On to the markets -

Monday, April 8, 2013

Morning Charts 04/08/13 SPX /ES

Again (I hate starting a post with that word), here we remain (and we're not going anywhere so get used to it). What's new this time? Well another economic disaster coming to fruition in Japan, but the markets continue ignoring reality. So nothing new to see here. Move along and turn in your guns after getting felt up by a TSA agent against your constitutional rights (sorry, we no longer have those rights, my bad). Welcome to the brave new world.

Japan Bond Market Halted For Second Day In A Row should be a nuke tipped ICBM across the bow of the markets but nooooooooooo. I certainly hope you folks out there are seeing the new reality. The fact that markets are a total sham and that nothing is real in the world of finance. I hope you fully understand that.

Washington's Blog had a great post on how we're doing the exact same things now that got us into this crisis in the first place. You should read and heed it. Actually, what they are doing pales in comparison to what's happening behind closed doors and where they plan on taking us.

So where are they going? Well, I've been telling you for years now their end game is the confiscation of the $19 trillion in retirement savings and that's coming next. Denninger did a nice post on this yesterday. If you have not seen How They Will Steal Your Retirement go read it now. This may or may not save the markets or the country (it won't save either). The discussion around this subject can be endless. Bottom line is it all depends on how the sheeple react. So, ever wonder why they are in such a hurry to get your guns?

On to the charts -

Friday, April 5, 2013

Open Weekend Post 04/06-07/13

You know the drill, share the love and the knowledge.

So, do we get an event or some more Cyprusish news after the bell Friday? Will NK drop a bomb on someone? More deposit theft? Some sort of constitutional rape? Who knows these days? All we can do is sit and wait for them to play their little game and then listen to the MSM glorify whatever the government does.

Whatever. I'm bored, tired and sick of this shit. I have a feeling most of you are as well. Can we just end this nightmare? Can we get on with the inevitable, and stop wasting everyone's time and what's left of their money?

STB just waiting on the "event". Catalyst has come. As for top calling - I'd be very surprised if the top was not set Tuesday. I just need to find the nerve and time to make the call. I don't trust them one bit, and my caution has been rewarded. Now I think they've finally bitten off more than they can chew. STB is a bit leery of what they may try and pull off during earnings season.

I suggest you go thru the comments Friday and see some of the charts linked by everyone - good stuff if you missed it. I also want to welcome and thank all the noobs in the comment section for stepping out and up. Great job to all of those.

Weekly Short - Weekly reversal candle needs confirmation.

Weekly Indicator - They love April tops.

Enjoy the weekend.

GL and GB!

Morning Charts 04/05/13 SPX /ES

RC likes this chart so much I doll'd it up last night. Enjoy a virtual tour of the STB Monthly SPX Chartbook -

SPX Triple Top - See that little yellow box on RSI? That's one of my top calling secrets. Work that with the MACD Histogram divergence and the ROC double divergence and you get the real story.

Thursday, April 4, 2013

Morning Charts 04/04/13 SPX /ES

Not much for me to cover. Call this a frustration post where I'm tired of covering the same old crap over and over again. Call it protest post against all the corruption, theft and greed. I really don't have much to add to everything that we all know that is going down. The charts are where they are. Yesterday's post has the particular charts you need to see. The governments are doing what they are doing. About the only thing new worth considering is N. Korea and the Chinese build up on their border. Just how mental is Un? We may be about to find out.

Minis 60m - Same chart we've been following for a couple of weeks now - First there was the largest green channel. Then that morphed into a blue channel inside. Then a smaller green channel inside that. Yesterday the smallest green channel gave way and price found its self down at blue support. If this goes the green channel support near 1527 should come into play and pretty quickly I'd guess.

Daily SPX - TNX continues to tumble really hard and the dance with the 50dma support is something worth watching. For this chart not to puke all over its self would be yet another travesty in the long line of horrors we've seen over the past three years.

Wednesday, April 3, 2013

Morning Charts 04/03/13 SPX /ES

I honestly don't think much commentary is necessary this morning - to sum it up - what ain't bad? Guns going, cash gone, missiles firing, charts topping (well, maybe), care to complete the list? Think the Fed's panties are in a wad? GS? JPM's? How about the EU, the IMF and the ECB that have opened Pandora's box? Outflows? they can't happen but will be demanded. Wow, this thing is falling apart, finally, right in front of our eyes. And to think there are a multitude of sheeple out there that are totally clueless.

You may not have to remain patient much longer my friends. I know this run (for the bears here at STB especially) has been more than agonizing. Unfortunately I have not been able to help your pain with daily doses of Follow the Fed turning to calls for Patience mixed in with a well timed mention of a turn to unprecedented manipulation back in August.

We've discussed it endlessly for close to two years now in the commentary below, they can't let the markets crash or even correct at this point. The catalyst (Cyprus) has finally arrived. I've thought is would be something that would eventually hit them square below the belt and where they can't print it away. Deposit theft and bank runs will be the ultimate game changer. What's to come will be even worse, and they will steal till there is nothing left. Sadly, stealing all the money in the world now will not make the debt crisis ever go away.

All we bears need now is one slip in price. We need for the right sell stops to be triggered and then the HFT algo bots will start the war. Then the banks will start looking for bigger fish to feed on (think LEH round 2). When the banks finally turn on one another, this will be your last chance for preparing for the worst case scenario. Hopefully I won't have to say this much longer, but remain patient STB followers. We're close.

On to the markets -

Tuesday, April 2, 2013

Morning Charts 04/02/13 SPX /ES

Not sure where to go with things this morning (evening actually). There appears to be a bunch of confusion and anxiety right now everywhere you look. I guess that is to be expected with the way things are flowing. Banks are insolvent and stealing everyone's money, the markets are precariously at all time highs with the charts screaming sell and the economy is alive only because the BLS and government covers up the real truth.

Look, at a time when the Vanguard chief says there will be two 50% declines over the next decade, you know you are living in perilous times. This of course plays into the hands of STB's buy and hold is dead and active allocation is alive and well thoughts I've been harping since '09. Well, that is if you think the markets will survive the next pullback, and I'm not sure how that will happen. At this time only POMO and government spending hold the hopes of further market advancement. How long can they keep that up? What happens to the markets when they start stealing everything here to continue kicking the can "for your benefit"?

I keep dancing around this top call thingy cause I can't make up my mind how to address the multitude of parameters and various tops that exist. I can't address the endless issues facing everything now because they are simply repeats of everything that has happened over the past four years. I can't do anything with the charts cause the Fed has the markets completely under control. I can't comment on the economy or reality cause nothing is real anymore. We're in a serious, very serious, WTF time if I may say. I'm kind of at my wits end.

On to the markets -