Sell in May and go away? That's about all I am hearing now. It seems most everyone is finally on the top call bandwagon. You'd never know it by price action though. Is it any wonder that the sane, the few remaining that can actually see reality, are going so crazy? From the charts to the economy to the political strife, everything is screaming top, yet technically they manage to bust through resistance, challenge a daily reversal candle, deny the negative divergences and hang on yet again against insurmountable odds. This is well beyond surreal folks.
Earnings season is upon us. Not sure if I need to give my quarterly rant again, so here is the abbreviated version I've been giving. Here is how the scam works. Earnings are controlled and manipulated by the powers that be. The analysts set the numbers. They are rosy and look for growth. This lifts spirits and markets. Then they all renig on those numbers a few weeks later lowering outlooks. This is fine cause they are doing it into a market that is lifted by QE, so no one is penalized. Then earnings season comes, no one remembers that the hurdles were lowered and a stream of "beats" comes in like clockwork. Of course CNBS then praises how glorious everything is. Never mind the Repo, FASB gimmickry nor the plethora of government trickery dolling things up as well. All is well, move along, risk on baby!
Most long time followers know that I hate the markets during the first month or so of earnings season, because the uncertainty is overwhelming. I prefer clear paths. The next month or so will more resemble a the Mario Bros video game with potholes and monsters but all the power in the world to overcome every obstacle if you play the game right, and we all know who has the joystick.
On to the markets -
Minis 60m - In the process of backtesting three main support diagonals here (pink, white and green) defying all sorts of (what once was considered) normal
SPX 60m - Here is a look at a possible HnS situation that exists if things can hold here. The set up is really nice as the target is the 38% retracement near 1500. Not so sure about it after they put the power play on top of that black candle yesterday afternoon. A double top looks more likely and a further weakening of the underlying indicators is expected. It appears they are setting up a real disaster.
SPX Daily - Channel support, backtesting resistance, lower BB support, overthrowing a larger wedge, fighting a reversal candle confirmation, prior top resistance, you name it, it is all going on right here and now. One slip and even a blind man can see the consequences.
I'll continue to preach patience. Earnings season if filled with hope right now despite the rash of outlook warnings. The PPT is doing all they can to support this thing. Can they let it go? We all know they can't and will do what they can to fend off any downside action. Remain patient and let the play come to you. We'll all see the big break when it happens. Something will come they can't fend off and price will tell us that exact moment. Hang in there.
It's Masters week! Hallelujah!
The final results of STB's NCAA tournament bracket are in and the top three were LegacyTrades (a twitter buddy of mine), STB and shining brightly LS2. Next were locals Inc, LC and SkyS. Thanks again to all for participating. It was (and always is - esp taking down certain trash talkers and putting them in their place in dramatic fashion) a good time.
Have a good day.
GL and GB!
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