Wednesday, November 30, 2011

Afternoon Delight 11/30/11 - Rigged

I'm not sure where to start tonight. Bottom line is the system has come unglued and is unraveling at a pace that even the central planners can't keep up with anymore. Whatever topic you want to address debt, war, corruption or a plethora of other potentially systemic issues they are all getting worse. And the naysayers come out of the closet and say Shanky is a nut, don't listen, as proof the DOW was up over 400 today and 800 points over the last three. Be my guest to take that road. I'll firmly stay on the one less traveled.

Last night in the AD STB wrote about "Living on the Edge". The markets and governments pressing the limits of the system. Well apparently the system or a bank had been pressed beyond the limit and the central planners had to move directly into rescue mode to avoid another LEH incident (which apparently was known to have been coming).

I remind you to not get lost in the illusion that the markets are creating that all is well and you need to remain in full risk on mode. When you add up the pieces below you will find that we came within literally hours of massive systemic failure and only the stick save action of the central planners that saved the crash caused the ramp this week. That's right, from the brink of total disaster to adding 800 DOW points and NOTHING has been fixed or solved (nor will it ever be).

Morning Post 11/30/11, SPX

What did you expect other than Santa to show up after all the news that had been flowing and a BAC downgrade? Stupid rabbit, bailouts are for banks! I guess the AD last night "Livin on the Edge" was spot on, cause they sho as hell came to the rescue overnight.

Lunacy -

And does anyone care to explain the 10% pop in BAC after a downgrade along with 36 of its brethren? Standard And Poors Reviews 37 Global Banks, Downgrades Bulk - Full List Attached | ZeroHedge

A 50 point move OVERNIGHT in the minis from 1183 low (where have I heard that number before? ON THE NUMBER!) to 1235 (1236 is second resistance and 1230 IHnS target we were discussing this week, the ABC scenario we have been discussing)? The technical set up was leading to a major move south. They had to make a move that just flat out blew thru major 1218 resistance. I am now eyeballing another potential IHnS that targets 1253. Bears be warned, moves like this are what got October kicked off, and we all know how corrupt the entire system is.

This is raw insanity, cause once again nothing has changed structurally or fundamentally. This is a stop gap measure that generates near term appearance that all is well printing more money and once again heading further in the wrong direction. My November swoon continuing into December was coming in a big way and this emergency action is the proof. "This means that the global situation is far, far more dire than the talking heads have said." Here Comes The Global, US-Funded Liquidity Bail Out | ZeroHedge.

Tuesday, November 29, 2011

Afternoon Delight 11/29/11 - Livin On the Edge

Sorry if these get a bit long, but they remain vitally important and are always fresh. Please take the time to read thru the post and click thru to learn more. I also ask that you share these with friends and family that need to be warned of the coming situation.

If there is one thing that should scare the shit out of you, it is the MF Global theft of over a billion dollars of cash from brokerage accounts just like the ones you have now. Where is all of this money and why has it not been returned to the rightful owners? Well after a MONTH of investigation apparently no one knows where all that money went. Now that is some real freaky scary shit right there.

For months we've been in a Ferrari burning it down the Italian mountainside testing the limits of the suspension and tires. Well, now those tires are getting worn and we've entered a particularly dangerous stretch of road near the mountain tops where no guard rails exist on the ever increasing hairpin turns. With each turn there is a little more fishtail and slide and it now appears one if not two tires are leaving the asphalt and getting into the slippery gravel on the shoulder.

Morning Post 11/29/11, SPX

STB has been hitting hard on the Iran issues in the AD for weeks now. It appears some tensions have boiled over and now we have actual conflict. Iran Update: Six (Or Eight) UK Embassy Staff Taken Hostage: Iran Contra Redux? | ZeroHedge. I was not long ago STB was discussing Iran and wars and market crashes. 

Print or die or die printing, that is the dilemma facing the EU right now. "The amount tops the 247 billion that 178 banks took last week and is the second week running that demand hit a new two-year high. In other words, despite demanding the most amount of money in 2 years, the banks were unable to flip all that cash and "sterilize" monetized paper." ECB Fails To Sterilize Bond Purchases, €9 Billion Shortfall Confirms Euro Bank Liquidity Freeze | ZeroHedge. Just follow the liquidity train.

Thinking about this earlier, what is the new reality with Italy? We used to fawn over rates sub 6% and fear above 7%. Then 7% became reality and now are we to rejoice rates sub 8% and greet them like all is well? "Confirming just how much the market has lost it, at just after 5 am Eastern when the news of today's Italian auction as announced, the EURUSD soared by almost 100 pips on news that the auction had not failed." Italy Prices €7.5 Billion In New Bonds At Unsustainable Yields, Market Rejoices If Only For A Few Minutes | ZeroHedge  

Monday, November 28, 2011

Afternoon Delight 11/28/11 - Welcome Back to Reality

The new normal - Ramp on a rumor and give little back when the news was no news after all. I hope everyone had a great Thanksgiving holiday. I enjoyed being away from all the news for a few days. Sadly, nothing has changed and if took about an hour to be welcomed back to reality this morning.

Welcome back to reality - 

Presented without Shanktification as the headlines flow just fine on their own.

Calculated Risk: Wolfgang Münchau: "Only days to avoid collapse" of eurozone, Currency Market prepares for breakup

Moody's: "The Probability Of Multiple Defaults By Euro Area Countries Is No Longer Negligible" | ZeroHedge

Britain draws up emergency plans for collapse of Euro as warnings Italy needs £500bn bailout | Mail Online

Morning Post 11/28/11, SPX

"The reasons for the rally are largely based on headlines and rumors out of Europe and being too pessimistic about what happens if there is no “solution”." Sounds like the same 'ol same 'ol thang, "it seems the main reason for a market rally is the amrageddon-like scenario of the break-up and the typical belief that 'the-worse-it-gets, the-better-it-will-be-in-the-end', so buy." Grand Plan 2 Or Grasping At Straws? | ZeroHedge

Did you catch that "too pessimistic" part? Well, if you have been reading this blog for the last 2.5 years and especially this past month then I want to know their definition of "too pessimistic"? Wait for the AD later today. I have 4 days of head lines to bowl you over with.

None of that matters. Nothing matters other than what the grand puppet masters decide. We are living in a time like no other where market manipulation, fraud, corruption and greed drive the system from its core. The only thing that will stop the charade is when their system literally implodes from the weight of the debt they continue to pile on. Remember, do the math.

Thursday, November 24, 2011

Morning Post 11/25/11, SPX

Well, Europe did not blow up yesterday. I thought it might. Still could be an interesting weekend,

I hope all had a good Thanksgiving.

Daily SPX - 

Have a great weekend.

Remember the reason for the season.

GL and GB.

Wednesday, November 23, 2011

Turkey Day Post 11/24/11 - Imanent Disaster

You know the drill - share the love and the knowledge and pass the punkin pie please. Enjoy this one cause next year's is gonna really suck. Be thankful now cause you're gonna be pissed later.

Not sure what I will do for Friday.  There will be a post, but it will be limited.

Sorry to bring you all this crappy news, but you must see it and feel it. No longer can we live in denial. This shit is real and it is an enormous problem. As STB pointed out many months ago - it is all about liquidity - show me the money! Sadly there isn't any to show as they burned (stole) it all.

I've been telling you literally for years the math does not work and global default is the only answer. I've been telling you to have plenty of cash at home (with many other things). So what happens when the banks all freeze up? Well, the O-MFG event has been going on for over a month now with no resolution or return of the stolen investor capital. Think about that long and hard.

Morning Post 11/23/11, SPX

Early post for early comments.

Contagion Shakes The Euro Core As 10 Year German Bund Auction A "Complete And Utter Disaster" | ZeroHedge

Minis under yellow channel support that had been holding all week and should destrpy the divergences I was showing on the 15 and 30m yesterday.

Minis 5m -

Tuesday, November 22, 2011

Afternoon Delight 11/22/11, SPX

And why was the super committee a massive failure and what about all those trillions of cuts that get immediately enacted? HAHAHAHAHAHA, they wrote the bill. They knew what they were doing in August when they wrote it. "But the big federal deficit reductions that are to be triggered by Monday's super-committee collapse wouldn't kick in until January 2013. And that allows plenty of time for lawmakers to try to rework the cuts or hope that a new post-election cast of characters — possibly a different president — will reverse them." It is all MEANINGLESS! HAHAHAHAHAHA Congress Has Over a Year to Thwart Spending Cuts - US Business News - CNBC

Question of the day - can the 1 thru 10 year yields all reach zero? Well with the 5 year going sub 1% today, we're on the right path to get there. $35 Billion In 5 Year Bonds Price Below 1% For First Time Ever | ZeroHedge. How's that interest rate in your bank account doing? Think those insurance policies are going to perform for you?

Morning Post 11/22/11

Another numerology day.

Another scary day as the failure of the super committee to even make an effort to resolve this nations spending problem defines the day. Politicians suck. As documented here and in many other places on the web, our representatives are there to serve themselves via insider trading, receiving funds and favors from special interest groups, and to set up their lucrative post rep years. If you think these people give a shit about America you need to think twice. Maybe some do (Ron and Rand), but the rest are a sham.

I've got news for everyone, the days of this country just floating along without any representation in DC are over. The time has come to have to pay the piper for all of the great music over the past 20 years. Guess what? Someone will now have to put on their big boy pants and step up to make some real meaningful decisions. Sadly, these people have proven themselves not capable of that. You see at this point anything they do will cause them to lose their lucrative job, so they do nothing. At this point they all will most likely be voted out, so they do nothing.

Monday, November 21, 2011

Afternoon Delight 11/21/11, SPX

Tough day for STB with computer all bogged down and no solution in sight. Reduced to surfing and working in safe mode. This must be a good one, cause with all the previous hacks and such I have this thing as locked down as possible.

Let's jump on into the news shall we. Things are really bad, I just don't have time to elaborate on all the financial doom there is out there right now. Let me hit what I can.

Can they pay their bills? "December is the first month with very significant maturities as more than $52bn comes due, with $14.9bn next week alone." $52.5 Billion In Virtually Free US Bank Debt Due Next Month | ZeroHedge

I just told someone close to me yesterday that the insurance companies were in danger. ROFLMAO 4 to 6% returns in a non correlated risk averse asset my ass. That's funny. Scramble From European Insurers Accelerates: ASSGEN, Allianz CDS Soar | ZeroHedge

Morning Post 11/21/11, SPX

STB having computer issues this morning (carryover from Friday), so Post will be late and developing as I have time. Running in safe mode while doing a full system scan (after cash clean and registry scan) is like a gazillion percent faster. Something is bad wrong with my PC.

Futures holding round level 1200 for now. Once they got back thru 1218 that was all she wrote as the October run should be taken back. STB November swoon better late than never. Like the July call they both topped early in the month and too thru the next month to fully materialize.

I told you the debt ceiling would be a disaster. I did miss in the rhetoric and bitching call. Not sure how they kept things so quiet, but I assume since they are not doing anything then there is nothing to bitch about. Bottom line is when you have spendocrats and republicons running the show nothing of substance will ever be achieved. Keep looking for that last massive easing to come. They are too deep into the lie to turn back now.

Friday, November 18, 2011

Open Weekend Post 11/19-20/11

You know the drill, share the love and the knowledge.

Don't forget the new poll on  the right ============>

Not sure if we should have another Shanky Summit Sunday night, but I will be here watching the futures just in case something is of interest. Nothing like them slipping in some strange market action during a holiday week. They need to quell the fear, but that appears to be impossible at this time as even the dumbest of the sheeple are now seeing thru the smokescreen. To those thinking about bank holiday next weekend (for the third year in a row), the thoughts are worth considering. Super committee this week. I think they punt and defer to the automatic cut features as they are incapable of cutting anything and this would be a great out where the blame is on the law and not the politicians. Things are really bad out there now. there is no denying it. Very, very scary.

Go figure - US Deficit-Cutting Talks Appear to Be Near Collapse

Morning Post 11/18/11, SPX

Well, surprise, surprise, surprise another crisis averted (for now). The frequency of these events that used to be spread a year apart are now occurring in near weekly fashion. It won't be long till they don't avert one. The methods for each stick save are becoming increasingly adventurous as well. With Germany not willing to go all Wiemar again and China keeping its wallet in its pocket the end game seemes upon us as the lenders of last resort fall by the wayside.

In European Banks Find Depositor-Of-Last-Resort. For Now! | ZeroHedge has, "In our ever-so-humble opinion, this should be added near the top of the list of crisis canaries-in-the-coal-mine as the cracks of desperation appear more and more across the largest and most-levered financial firms in the world." This should scare the hell out of you after the O-MFG crisis and all the news in the AD last night.

Thursday, November 17, 2011

Afternoon Delight 11/17/11 - Time To Get Serious

I'll get to the market news in a bit - this stuff is just too hilarious not to cover.

Well with Reuters tweeting that the House has passed a bill that would fund the government thru December 16th, at least we don't have to worry about government shutdowns till the week before Christmas. That's the good news. Actually if you can call the government having to pass debt spending on a monthly basis cause they have not had a budget for over 900 days now and are $15 trillion in debt (excluding FRE and FNM) good news, then how bad are things?

Of course if you vote to simply have unlimited spending authority that would just end all the suspense - GOP House Will Vote on Balanced Budget Amendment That Permits Unlimited Federal Spending |

Morning post 11/17/11, SPX

Let's start our day with this nugget - "At the close of business on Tuesday, the debt of the federal government exceeded $15 trillion for the first time--with the largest single owner of the publicly held portion of that debt being the Federal Reserve." Fed Now Largest Owner of U.S. Gov’t Debt—Surpassing China |

You need to think about that long and hard. Wrap you mind around what it says. Now, we somehow still have Obummer for a president who has increased the national debt over 41% since he took office, a corrupt congress, a Fed in total control of the economic collapse and Wall Street and the banksters raking in every penny they can of stimulus funds. Things are looking up! Or are they?

Wednesday, November 16, 2011

Afternoon Delight 11/16/11 - CRACK!

OK, we opened this morning with the news There's Your Official Warning From The Fed | ZeroHedge. Then later in the day we received Fed To Hike Current Coupon MBS Margins | ZeroHedge. As I said earlier, if the Fed is dropping into protection mode, then you should be as well. Following the Fed's moves has been the key to everything in this market for the past two years. Now is not time to change strategies.

I often speak of corruption and fraud (OK, I do it all the time), and there are some out there that just don't get it or believe me when I pen such things. As usual STB confirmation is always pleasing to hear. It is especially pleasing when it comes from the horses mouth. Please read the following two links closely.

This will give you a warm and fuzzy feeling. An Insight into Tim Geithner's Respect for Law and Constitutions from gives you, "He said, in a somewhat irritated fashion, that "there are ways to get around these things". So much for constitutions. Then he added. "It's not rocket science [to get around these things]"." That's comforting to know.

Morning Post 11/16/11, SPX

The one bit of news that is screaming at me this morning - "But the move could provide an extra layer of protection for the Fed against the risk that a dealer bank goes belly up." Fed To Hike Current Coupon MBS Margins | ZeroHedge. Hmmm Fed moving into protection mode - maybe you should as well. STB is all about following the Fed. Maybe this is a signal that Duck and Cover drills should be put into practice.

SPX Daily - The most important thing to note here is price levels to lack of strength in the indicators. In almost all of the indicators below they continued to weaken as price set a higher low. Note the lack of strength under the 1220 low compared to the 1230 low. The CCI really stands out to me.

This consolidation I have been showing could still break either way. I lowered the blue wedge support diagonal on this chart effectively resetting the D point of the rising wedge. This may be right or wrong. For my drop, pop, diverge and fail scenario I still need some more upside. Bottom line is this market is always a rumor from a ramp and a default from a crash.

Tuesday, November 15, 2011

Afternoon Delight 11/15/11

I should just stop the post right here with this one -

JPMorgan To Issue CMBS Backed By... Defaulted Loans | ZeroHedge. So, how do you tell when your Ponzi/ripoff/corrupt/fraudulent/rigged system is scraping the bottom of the barrel? Well, bundling and selling defaulted loans would be a good place to start. Do you think they will do a better job than Citi and others in disclosing this "crap" to investors? Sadly, there will be a buyer (gun to head), and that buyer will lose their shirt, but the banks will make billions in fees. All is well in the land of unicorns and lollipops.

Of course I could have just stopped with this one as well -

ECB Member Tells The Truth: Debt Monetization Is The Beginning Of The End | ZeroHedge. We've discussed this to the point of no return at STB for months if not years. Nice to hear someone with some sort of street cred coming out and actually admitting it.

Or this one -

Morning post 1/15/11, SPX

Running a bit late this morning, sorry.

A couple of simple charts to tell the story -

Minis Daily - Here are all the meaningful trendlines, channels and wedges. Believe it or not I am finally starting to make some sense of this mess as form comes into play finally.

Monday, November 14, 2011

Afternoon Delight - 11/14/11

Nice quiet, dull, no/low news event day. Makes for a nice change.

UPDATE: Harbinger of DOOM - "If we continue to bail out banks and bankers so they can continue to lose money, if we cavalierly put this burden on the taxpayer, it is all too predictable what will happen here." Ron Paul: "It Is Estimated That US Banks Have Over A Trillion Dollars Tied Up At-Risk With German And French Banks" | ZeroHedge. And now you know why you keep bailing out the EU (with YOUR money) via the IMF, EFSF or whatever other under ocean pipeline they have to use. Remember the longer it takes for this to implode and the more money they throw at it, the worse the ultimate outcome. As noted here and on several other sites, the O-MFG, Jefferies, Barklays and today BlackRock events are all warning signs of what's to come. LEH will look like nothing compared to the next collapse.

I've told you for a long time that our financial and economic voodoo was the cause for all of this and that it would come back to haunt us. That time is apparently coming sooner than later. "Since the onset of U.S. subprime crisis in 2007, it was the country's domestic economic problems that triggered a disastrous financial crisis that swept the world. Excessive spending for many years has added up debts." Main China Daily Xinhua Pens Epic Anti-US Tirade, Bashes America As Source Of All Global Financial Ills | ZeroHedge

Morning Post 11/14/11, SPX

STB is still kind of speechless. Hard to believe isn't it. I went quiet Friday and stayed in my cave all weekend. May be it is utter frustration finally catching up. Have no fear, I will be here and speaking my peace till the end, but the recent idiocy of the global financial Ponzi/fraud really has me miffed. If any of us ran our financial house like this we'd all have been thrown in jail long ago.

I am still very bearish on November. My main opposition to the call is the EU illegally printing, the corruption and fraud continuing, the bots of course and the rumor mill that all will be saved. On my side is everything that is reality and the debt ceiling vote.

Friday, November 11, 2011

Open Weekend Post - 11/12-13/11

You know the drill - share the love and the knowledge.

Happy Veterans Day (weekend) - thanks to all those that serve and served.

I'll post it if I find it.

Have a good weekend.

GL and GB.

Morning Post 11/11/11 - Veterans Day - This Country is F'd Up!

Happy Veterans Day. Tho those of you with the day off enjoy the long weekend. Remember to thank a veteran if you see one for their service to our country.

"Veterans Day, formerly Armistice Day, is an annual United States holiday honoring military veterans. It is a federal holiday that is observed on November 11. It is coincides with other holidays such as Armistice Day or Remembrance Day, which are celebrated in other parts of the world and also mark the anniversary of the signing of the Armistice that ended World War I. (Major hostilities of World War I were formally ended at the 11th hour of the 11th day of the 11th month of 1918 with the German signing of the Armistice.)" Veterans Day - Wikipedia

I often mention that if our forefathers that fought for the liberation of this country would be rolling over in their graves if they could see this country today. Even some of the the current military don't like whats happening here now -

Thursday, November 10, 2011

Afternoon Delight 11/10/11 - Just Numb

No comments from me today. I'm pretty much numb. Numb from the 1000th stick save. Numb from the "experts" that believe they can solve a debt crisis with more debt. Numb from the fraud and corruption that are rampant throughout the global system. Numb from the constitutional abuse and loss of natural freedoms as the police state expands. Numb from the reality that is Pen State. What have we become? Why have we allowed this to happen? Why are we doing nothing to stop it, any of it?

Market News -

"And now they are refusing to even acknowledge this transaction, and apparently the management of MF Global is not yet talking. Why? Because it was an insider deal, and they don't want to give back the stolen money." Jesse's Café Américain: MF Global's Customer Assets - STOLEN - And Nothing You Hold In This System Is Safe

Hey, if you don't want to hear it from me, then why not from one of the most conservative and respected money men of all time? Rogers: “100% Chance Of Crisis Worse Than 2008,” Italy Implodes Alex Jones' Infowars.

Begging behooves them. World has Major Funding Gap; IMF Begs Russia and China for Money; Italy and Greece Demand Deposits Collapse; Run on Greek Banks? Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Morning Post 11/10/11

So, they threw a few buckets of water and calmed the fire down. Don't lose faith bears. Patience will be required. As you have heard me say many times, they are cornered and fighting with all they have to save whats left of an imploding system. Please see, Snap Reactions To Italy's €5 Billion Bill Auction, Which Reeks Of Illegal ECB Intervention | ZeroHedge, "since the ECB is prohibited by law from intervening in the primary, auction market, we wonder just what illegal backdoor funding scheme the ECB has concocted with friendly banks in order to have the auction price where it did, and how much money was transferred by back door channels to keep Europe from imploding one more day."

Minis Daily - Channels, wedge, support and resistance - it is all here.

Wednesday, November 9, 2011

Afternoon Delight 11/09/11 - Game Plan - War?

For those that do not read the blog regularly and do not read the comments, you miss a majority of what I have to say and where my thoughts are more generally and liberally presented. I will try to summarize what I think the game plan is for the current situation.

As STB called from 1290 drop then pop and rise to set daily divergences then go poof. SPX cash came within 8 points of my targeted area yesterday. STB has been calling for a miserable November for some time now. So far so good on both accounts.

Now, STB has been on this larger call for some time - They need an event or market crash to allow for the debt ceiling vote to be more accommodating and to scare the markets into allowing one more massive stimulus. A move to 1040 should allow for that.

Morning Post 11/09/11, SPX

Not sure I need to cover the why the market is falling portion this morning. Not sure Blogger allows enough character space to cover all the reasons. What you need to know is they can intervene, but they can't stop it. Think about an "inevitable" situation in your mind. Go ahead, find one that you can visualize, and picture the slow, long, agonizing demise to utter and complete failure.

I picture skydiving and your first parachute was tangled, so you had to go to the backup chute. You pull the backup at 10,000 feet and notice it has a small rip.  Now picture that rip slowly growing and your decent picking up speed. At some point that chute fails and you are in free fall. Welcome to the euro zone and the global financial systemic collapse. At this point we're already on the backup chute and that rip is growing. The free fall part .... I think you get it.

I say I think you get it, but then most really don't. They can't wrap their minds around where we're headed. They see the markets and never ending intervention and something saving the system. It is like a really well scripted Hollywood horror show, except in this one, no one survives except the boogeyman.

Tuesday, November 8, 2011

Afternoon Delight 11/08/11 - Asteroid Edition

All I can say is that it is a good thing NASA does not hire FRB economists to do their math for them. Let's hope and pray this group at NASA is the only government group we can count on to do reliable math. Once decimal off on this one and it would be catastrophic. Look up in the sky. It is a bird, no it's plane, no it's Bernanke, no it is a really big rock on a near collision course with earth. I have to ask the question - What if they are lying about this as well?

"Fortunately for us, NASA predicts the murderous cosmic body will miss our planet by about 202,000 miles, passing around 6:28 p.m. on Tuesday. That's about 0.85 times the distance to the moon, NASA says. The last time an asteroid this size came this close to Earth was in 1976, and it shouldn't happen again until 2028 -- provided we're still here." Massive, unstoppable rock hurtles toward Earth -

Market News - Ramp on!

Morning Post 11/08/11 - Asteroid Day!

It is asteroid day! Huge asteroid headed for close encounter with Earth, "It is the first time since 1976 that an object of this size has passed this closely to the Earth." Want to see a picture of the large rock? NASA Captures New Images of Large Asteroid Passing Earth.

Speaking of close encounters, the White House says no evidence of aliens, but leaves the door open with, "noting that many scientists and mathematicians believe that, statistically speaking, odds are high that there is life somewhere among the "trillions and trillions of stars in the universe"".

I 100% agree with that statement and apparently NASA does as well. For some reason they like to take a lot of pictures of space dust doing miraculous things (seems like a good use of their time and taxpayer funds to me). See here and also Shanky's favorite UFO video of all time here (once again they have a great interest in capturing images of space dust moving in ways dust does not here on earth).

Monday, November 7, 2011

Afternoon Delight 11/07/11

It is only a matter of time. Can the bears remain solvent?

Worst Case Scenario - 

I was hoping they would be putting a worst case scenario together - looks like they got one. OK, now if they have gone to these lengths what does that tell you? And now I ask, do you have a worst case scenario plan in place?

"2) the German taxpayer became the Eurozone's "de facto bailout provider."  Mayer proposes a "Chapter 11 for Eurozone countries," which would place troubled members under economic supervision until they put their house in order." Wikileaks Exposes German Preparations For "A Eurozone Chapter 11" | ZeroHedge

Meanwhile "Global Bailout Fallback Plan B" China Is Pumping 1 Trillion RMB Into Its Banks | ZeroHedge

"As the European debt crisis edges closer to a break up of the euro zone, financial regulators may be reaching for emergency manuals that have gathered little dust since the last crisis." Analysis: U.S. bailout manuals handy if Europe crisis widens | Reuters

Morning Post 11/07/11

First let me thank everyone for attending the Shanky Emergency Summit last night. The conversation was great and very informative. If you care, go read the comments from last night. All the regulars were there sharing links, charts and their opinions of the markets.

Well tomorrow night the asteroid passes closer to the earth than the moon. (Huge asteroid headed for close encounter with Earth - Yahoo! News)The apocalyptic thoughts that come with the possibility of a collision are dreadful. We've been promised by the experts that it will not hit earth and we're all safe for another 100 years or so till it makes its return trip.

I'm not sure that the same can be said for the asteroid that is know as the debt bubble. Instead of one large rock, this one hit the atmosphere and fractured into about 10 large chunks. They are landing all over the globe and not in safe places.

Just like the real asteroid, the experts have promised that all will be well and that you and your money are safe. Well these experts (global leaders and the financial masters of the universe) are losing street cred pretty fast. Wall Street Journal Lays It Down: "Merkel And Sarkozy Have Lost Credibility" | ZeroHedge. It is about time that someone is finally calling BS on the magical all will be well we can fix it charade that is the euro zone. Guess what? It won't be long till someone calls out the US, Japan, China and every other nation that has been pulling your strings either.

As brutally beat into the ground here at STB, liquidity is the issue. The big bets and debts have lost their backing. The multi-levered instruments of financial destruction that drove the spectacular yet unrealistic growth over the past 15 years are about to implode. The clues of the big money grab are all around. MFG, HSBC, treasury sales, overnight lending maxed out, BAC further dilution, banks not allowing you to close accounts are just some of the many examples that exist.

Switching here to the another hot stove event right now, the US debt ceiling vote, which is on 11/23, just be ready. This puppy is about to explode.

An the one event that I think no one is making a big enough deal over - the potential for a was with Iran. Watch oil over the next two weeks (and go fill up your car now).

Summing up where I have been for some time now - STB looking for one last pop here if it can to set double top and divergence, then we get a major move south. That can be the move or not. That move south needs to start pretty soon. I have been speculating they would crash the markets to make the debt ceiling vote more accommodating and allow for a larger raise. This would then allow for the Fed to move in with a massive easing.

The Iran war possibility within the next two weeks could help this cause, because you know the administration (that needs a war badly) would then invoke some sort of bullshit clause to bypass the Constitution and congress to be able to spend whatever they like when they like (so nothing would change essentially).  This war has to happen before they bring the reactor online, so be ready for it.

Weekly target chart - Book it to 1040, mega stick save with massive QE and then the final rockets burn out, or does it just implode? Right now implosion looks like the best option, but you never know.

Minis Daily - That red rectangle I have been showing for quite some time looms large above. I don't think it gets there, but you never know. If I get the move back near 1290, then my call for a pullback and move up to set divergences will come off perfectly.

Minis 30m - Pinched between 1256 resistance and lower wedge support. If 1256 goes a move to backtest (again) the busted green channel support would be the first target then double resistance from the old yellow channel resistance (yellow) and the upper wedge diagonal (blue) should be the max. On the bearish side, if the blue support goes here you better look out, cause this next fall is going to be spectacular.

SPX Daily - The question is how many more rumor driven unsubstantiated short squeeze ramps can they manufacture? This chart looks very tired. Upside is possible, but it will be limited and a struggle from here. To much resistance and overbought are not good combinations.

Remember the reason for the season!

GL and GB.

Sunday, November 6, 2011

Shanky's Sunday Night Summit - Sorting out the Confusion

The whole reason for this gathering is to sort thru the clutter,corruption, lies, risk on, aglo driven, liquidity lacking, insolvent, bankrupt, rumor driven bullshit market. What I want is a healthy discussion from both bulls and bears on where the markets may be headed and why. I  know it is my job here to do the calling and all that, but I want to hear your thoughts.

I know that all we will discuss will be pure speculation. One thing I believe most of us know is that this all ends horribly. The question is how long can they hold out? How will they hold out? Can the markets set a higher high? Show your charts, links and whatever you have to back up your thoughts.

If some of you would like to discuss preparedness as well, please feel free. This will be a comment driven  event with many tangents. I have no idea how disqus will handle the pressure (if we get a good turn out), but deal with it.

Friday, November 4, 2011

Open Weekend Post 11/05-06/11

UPDATE - Times are dire and there are lots of questions - come prepared to the Shanky Summit - Sunday night at 9:00.

You know the drill, share the love and the knowledge. You won't find much love in the below links. Reality is harsh and growing more so by the day.

New poll question ==========>

Note to the lurkers - I am still moderating comments - I try to get to then as I can. If you are good you get whitelist - if you are leaving links to your blog you get spammed immediately. All are welcome and the rules are simple - respect others at all times and stick to business. Jump on in.

I got one thing to say, you better be ready, cause barring the most massive cash airlift Helicopter Ben has ever done, you are staring meltdown in the eyes and it ain't blinkin.

Turn it up!

I got a link fest for you this weekend -

Yes, a war should be coming- what's the big deal? They basically need to hit the facility before they drop the rods and start a nuclear reaction. Israeli PM orders investigation into Iran leak| World news |

Your taxpayer funds doing their part (1) - U.S. Has Been Providing Turkey with $1 Million a Day to Fight Kurdish Minority - Sibel Edmonds' Boiling Frogs Post | Home of the Irate Minority

Your taxpayer funds doing their part (2) - State Department training Islamic political parties in Egypt - By Josh Rogin | The Cable

What can we expect after we beg out military to remove those in power - Hand of Egypt's military rulers grows heavier -  My Way News

Yes, Soros was behind at least some of it - ACORN Officials Scramble, Firing Workers And Shredding Documents, After Exposed As Players Behind Occupy Wall Street Protests | Fox News

Don't believe all the rosy shows and videos - Detroit is a total mess - Detroit in extremely serious fiscal shape: mayor | Reuters

More on Detroit - DDOT Drivers Refuse To Work: ‘They’re Scared For Their Lives’ « CBS Detroit

More muni issues - Unable to pay bill, Mich. city turns off lights - Yahoo! Finance

As STB told you years ago - they will fine everything that is not nailed down - they must have the income - Denver Collects Fines On Drivers Who Stop At Red Lights « CBS Denver

This has to be total BS. How can a minimized economy generate more than anytime in history? The cows must be working OT - "The global output of heat-trapping carbon dioxide jumped by the biggest amount on record, the U.S. Department of Energy calculated, a sign of how feeble the world's efforts are at slowing man-made global warming." Biggest jump ever seen in global warming gases - Yahoo! News

Police state being finalized? This is scary stuff if you have the forethought to see where it is leading - Anxiety over upcoming test of US emergency system

This is a must read and even worse than the last post - Guest Post: This Is The Only Way To Change The System | ZeroHedge

Obummer bashing - HypocriteMF Global ties awkward for Obama campaign - The Washington Post

Scared? You should be - now they aren't letting HSBC customers get their funds? A glitch or must they have the liquidity? HSBC Customers Impacted By "Worldwide Meltdown" Of All Retail Services | ZeroHedge

Speaking of liquidity issues - MF Bankruptcy Causes Biggest Foreign Bank Liquidity Scramble To 'Fed Safety' Ever, Harbinger Of Major Eurobank Stress | ZeroHedge

Sure, this is possible - they can create 12.6 million jobs over the next 4 years. They are off to a great start. the last 4 years they generated .... woops - US Needs To Generate 262,500 Jobs Monthly To Return To Pre-Depression Employment By End Of Obama Second Term | ZeroHedge

And you were wondering why Germany can't come to the rescue? Don't be stupid, all along they were waiting to lean on the IMF and the US taxpayer to come to the rescue - Former Bundesbank President Weber Warns Germany Will Be On The European Bail Out Hook For Up To 314% Of Its GDP | ZeroHedge

All the important dates you need to know for November but one - 11/23 the debt ceiling vote - Making Sense Of The Chaos: Europe's Calendar Of Events For The Rest Of November | ZeroHedge

More financial chicanery - all is well - we got this one right - wait - we don't? - round three of the Jefferies farce - Jefferies Releases Yet Another Set Of Numbers On Its European Exposure That Differ From 24 Hours Ago | ZeroHedge

and of course - NO ONE GOES TO JAIL  - This is either a miracle or the biggest bunch of bullshit you have ever heard - Did Jamie Dimon Just Stop Jon Corzine From Going To Jail? | ZeroHedge  "Ignore the fact that MF admitted it had commingled and abused client funds. After all, the big boys take care of their own. And what is $660 million to JPM?" WAIT - it was some of MFG's money, but not THAT money. Seriously? Here we go again. JPMorgan Denies Holding Missing MF Global Funds - Report — US Business News - CNBC

To emphasize the above chicanery - "One of the long-term recurring themes both here and in other more objective media, has been the encroaching domination of the central planning regime, or monetary authorities, read central banks, in the domain of capital markets and overall broad sovereignty, to the point where there is neither technical nor fundamental analysis left, but merely the question of where is the next batch of excess liquidity going to come from." Fall Of The House Of Money: Artemis Capital On How €entral Banking Took Over Capital Markets... And The World | ZeroHedge

I'll put up a chart if I find one worth posting.

Have a great weekend. I'd start stocking up on food, silver coins, seeds and ammo if I were you.

GL and GB

Morning Post 11/04/11, SPX

dys·func·tion  /dɪsˈfʌŋkʃən/ noun

plural dys·func·tions

1 [noncount] : the condition of having poor and unhealthy behaviors and attitudes within a group of people Merriam-Webster's Learner's Dictionary

Need I say more? And the non surprise of the day is ........ No IMF, EFSF Participation In European Bailout: Merkel Says G20 Fails To Reach Agreement On IMF Resources, Nobody Wants Any Piece Of EFSF | ZeroHedge. You are kidding right? They have had a month if not longer with certain doom staring them in the face, and all they can come up with is - the IMF will help us? And just who funds the IMF? You and I do mostly. And what happens on the 23rd? Yes, our debt ceiling vote. Are you beginning to put it all together?

When you are running for reelection and you need some good jobs news cause your policies have all been total failures, what do you do? Stupid question, I know - NFP Less +103K Birth Death Adjustment = -23K; 530K Jobs Created In 2011 "Statistically" | ZeroHedge. Which begs the question, can you bullshit a bullshitter?

FAT CHANCE! US Needs To Generate 262,500 Jobs Monthly To Return To Pre-Depression Employment By End Of Obama Second Term | ZeroHedge

Thursday, November 3, 2011

Afternoon Delight - 11/03/11

All I can do is laugh at this point. Seriously, there is no solution to the euro zone debt crisis. This was supposed to be resolved 10 days ago on 10/23. They sure make you think they can pull that last rabbit out of the magical hat.

How can they fix it? Well about the only refuge left is to turn on the presses and start printing euros. How will that go over? Well, other than being illegal, an already struggling populace would then be subjected to massive inflation. I guess you gotta do what you gotta do. This should be the next step. I'm sure the markets will just love that and celebrate another year or less on the debt tit before turning to dust.

Most importantly let's cover the O-MFG (MF Global) event and the $600+ million stolen from investors. Here is the deal, "they" just sacrificed one of their own. This is called financial cannibalism. Either a bank or a sovereign saw an opportunity to snatch a quick gain (no matter who's expense) and took it. I suspect that there are plenty of "opportunities" for this to happen out there and that using client funds was a common practice. I suspect there is a gentleman's agreement not to infringe on other broker dealers in this situation - someone crossed the line.

Morning Post - 11/03/11, SPX

OK, the first thing you need to see this morning is a chart of the SPX futures. Not sure that many of you know that they were as low as 1213 last night (down 20). Nothing like a G-Pap resignation, a G20 summit and now a rate cut in the EU (the last spike) to make a THIRTY TWO point rally to stick save the futures cracking support and about to fall off a cliff. The bears got reamed this morning sans KY.

If you did not see the Afternoon Delight yesterday, it kind of puts the current situation in perspective. Dire does not do the situation justice. Moves like the above are to be expected. As STB has preached for years, the markets are all that is standing between "them" and total annihilation. The markets give the "illusion" all is well and stable. They must keep the markets afloat at all cost. Their back is against the wall and they will use any and all available measures to keep the illusion alive.

Wednesday, November 2, 2011

Afternoon Delight 11/02/11, CERTAIN DEATH

Not sure where to start today, the news was so bad all around that it is hard to find a spot to start. Of course the DOW was up 178, so who cares right? You know when the FOMC meets, the belief in eternal easing runs rampant. Just the mention of the Bernank possibly buying more MBS, or the mention that they still have plenty of tools in the shed to combat deteriorating economic conditions market failure seems to cure all that ills.

However, even though the markets are totally blind to reality, the Fed has worked themselves into a corner. "Today, with inflation currently approaching 4% on a year-over-year basis the Fed is not only outside its inflation mandate of 1-3% but any further cost pressures on the consumer is going to drive the economy into a recession." And, "However, with that there is a bigger problem brewing, and one that has been set aside due to the issues with Greece, the "Super Committee" only has 22 days left to announce the spending reduction plans before the automatic cuts take hold. This won't be good." Guest Post: Fed Trapped By Inflation | ZeroHedge

Morning Post 11/02/11, SPX

Well, we're one day closer to 11/11/11 if that means anything. Searching for something to say? Darn right. What, you want to hear me discuss the rumor driven Greek bailout on/off referendum? This market is stupid. No other way to put it. Bottom line is we all know that a haircut of any sort only kicks the can till the eventual default.

This is old news, but is always fun when it pops back up - Seems to work best when Saudi Arabia needs a shot in the arm to get oil prices up. ""The country's defence minister Ehud Barak and the foreign minister Avigdor Lieberman are said to be among those backing a pre-emptive strike to neutralise Iran's nuclear ambitions" Sky News Reports Israel Preparing For Preemptive Strike On Iran | ZeroHedge

This is a good one - Krugman Warns Of “Gigantic Bank Run”, “Emergency Bank Closing” And “New Lira” | ZeroHedge. Moves away from the euro and back to domestic currencies has been a hot topic lately. Remember STB likes EUR $1.16.

Tuesday, November 1, 2011

Afternoon Delight 11/01/11

I try very hard every day to paint the picture for you. If you don't get that a total financial collapse is coming at this point I don't know what to tell you to do. It is a psychological leap that must be made from comfort and safety to the unknown and dark and scary. All I can ask is that you at least prepare for the worst. If it does not happen, then at least you will have had the peace of mind knowing you and your family would have been provided for.

This is not a joke - it is real - Double Your Money In 6 Months: 1 Year Greek Yields Pass 200% For First Time Ever | ZeroHedge.

"George Papandreou's socialist government was on the brink of collapse after his referendum plan sparked a furious reaction within his own party and plunged Europe back into turmoil, only days after a complex rescue deal had been agreed – requiring Greece to embark on tough new cost-cutting measures." Greek government teeters on brink of collapse in wake of referendum plan | Business | The Guardian

Morning Post 11/01/11, SPX

Two massive issues, MF Global bankruptcy and Greece failure, are driving the markets down today. STB is expecting rule 48 today or tomorrow to rear up.

Here is the deal - Greece has the financial bunker buster. If they default they trigger the CDS which triggers the systemic financial tsunami. This means that they either save Greece or the whole house of cards comes crumbling down. Kinda ironic the country that (according to Sarcozy) should never have been let into the EU, the country that amounts to a small state in the USA, is holding all the cards for the financial world. Kinda reminds me of Dirty Harry. Has the ECB fired six shots or only five? Do you feel lucky? I gots ta know.

MF Global's (MFG) bankruptcy on the other hand is a major broker dealer failing (think Lehman with a twist). What is the twist? Someone Is Going To Jail For This: MF Global Caught Stealing Hundreds Of Millions From Customers? | ZeroHedge. Do you need any clarification of that post title? Was that clear enough. STB and the commenters here LOVE vindication. We bitch and moan about it every day for a good reason. The crooks are running the show. It is all a sham. To each and every one of you that has funds with a broker dealer, you should be scared as shit right now. This was John Corzine's firm. You know the former Governor of New Jersey and ex-Goldman executive. This is an O-MFG event.

Denninger has a nice post that explains the fraud and corruption succinctly - Can You Survive It Being Over? in [Market-Ticker]