Tuesday, November 1, 2011

Morning Post 11/01/11, SPX

Two massive issues, MF Global bankruptcy and Greece failure, are driving the markets down today. STB is expecting rule 48 today or tomorrow to rear up.

Here is the deal - Greece has the financial bunker buster. If they default they trigger the CDS which triggers the systemic financial tsunami. This means that they either save Greece or the whole house of cards comes crumbling down. Kinda ironic the country that (according to Sarcozy) should never have been let into the EU, the country that amounts to a small state in the USA, is holding all the cards for the financial world. Kinda reminds me of Dirty Harry. Has the ECB fired six shots or only five? Do you feel lucky? I gots ta know.

MF Global's (MFG) bankruptcy on the other hand is a major broker dealer failing (think Lehman with a twist). What is the twist? Someone Is Going To Jail For This: MF Global Caught Stealing Hundreds Of Millions From Customers? | ZeroHedge. Do you need any clarification of that post title? Was that clear enough. STB and the commenters here LOVE vindication. We bitch and moan about it every day for a good reason. The crooks are running the show. It is all a sham. To each and every one of you that has funds with a broker dealer, you should be scared as shit right now. This was John Corzine's firm. You know the former Governor of New Jersey and ex-Goldman executive. This is an O-MFG event.

Denninger has a nice post that explains the fraud and corruption succinctly - Can You Survive It Being Over? in [Market-Ticker]

Bottom line is the financial system keeps walking to the edge of the abyss and somehow gets saved each time. What is different is the amount of time between each trip. It used to be a year, then it was months, now it is weeks. When we get to days, you better be ready. Another thing that is happening is with each trip to the edge more debt is spent to save the system that has debt as the core issue. Debt is the only answer, which is no solution. I need to add that those of you listening to the shills at CNBC, STOP! They are feeding you a line of shit a mile long.

STB has told you to have plenty of cash at home (it the banks will give it to you). Gold and silver coins would be preferable. You also need a lot of food (6 months to a year) and guns with plenty of ammo. If you missed the footage of the Great Depression in the Afternoon Delight yesterday, you can see it here. Watch it. It is about time for me to do another total disaster post.

FOMC meets today and tomorrow. This always brings cause for volatility. Why? Simple, what the Fed does the market does. Will they ease or not? With every QE3 rumor the markets jump regardless of fundamentals. This chart is quite revealing of the severe market action that comes with almost each FOMC meeting.

SPX Daily Target Chart - I updated this one - the last blow off top blew up the last scenario where I had 1257 as the max top. I'm not all that comfortable with this at this time as things look like they will just crap out at this point, but since I have been calling for the dailys to pull back and set some sort of double top divergence I'm gonna stick with it (blue line). The caveat of a straight down crash is always a possibility. Remember, these are my best guess scenarios based on where TA is headed and the events (like the FOMC or G20 meetings) that may be market movers. I reiterate, I just threw this one together this morning and it may get revised.

Weekly Indicators Chart - For those fractaling (comparing) the top in '07 to here (black boxes), so far so good. Serious AFDB time may be the call.

Minis daily - Indicators do not look good at all. At 1218 support. Yellow channel support 1166 next target (which we could hit today if all goes right). As discussed yesterday the doji with confirmation yesterday has lit the candle.

Minis 1m - You can clearly see 1218 support if that goes you should have an accelerating event. Not sure this chart will accomplish anything today other than watching the VWAP and 1m 200ma resistance for points to add short.

GL and GB.

No comments:

Post a Comment

Keep it civil and respectful to others.