Friday, October 31, 2014

Open Weekend Post 11/01-02/2014

You know the drill, share the love and the knowledge. 

If you see it, share it. 

I'll update some charts and look for any clues. Of course anything non-QE related is irrelivant, so I'll just pretend what I'm doing may make a difference. 

Christmas season may proceed now. 

Have a good weekend. 

GL and GB!

Happy Halloween - Morning Charts 10/31/2014 SPX /es

Happy Halloween. My charting skills are insane, I know. 

SPX 30m - in case ur interested. Came close enough to that 2005 backtest of busted support for me. I'm still liking the potential for a major event or reversal from this technical point. It's just one of those places you have to consider such. 

More to come below. 

I can officially start Xmas stuff Monday!

Happy Halloween!

GL and GB!

Thursday, October 30, 2014

Morning Charts 10/30/2014 SPX /es

I have to at least throw this in - As for John Kerry - "White House officials joke that he is like the astronaut played by Sandra Bullock in the movie “Gravity,” somersaulting through space, untethered to the White House." 

Add this to the list - State Department: We Are Not Going To Apologize For Calling Netanyahu A “Chickenshit”…

You gotta see this - (Dem led) Senate Ethics Committee: We Lost Complaint On Harry Reid And Obama Admin Getting Visas For Clients

And Obozo can't figure out why the world is trying to disassociate from him and all his policies that are "on the ballot?

And we're supposed to listen to this idiot that got us into all this mess - this sounds like praying for forgiveness on your death bed. 

Alan Greenspan: QE Failed To Help The Economy, The Unwind Will Be Painful, "Buy GoldSaying something like that, disputing the Fed, get's folks killed. 

Waste? LOL - you can't even fathom the sheer amount of waste - the only question is - where did all the money go? Putting The Fallacy Of QE Into Perspective - This will blow your mind (and get you to wondering how? Burn rate? Where is it all? Theft? 

QE is over - GFL with that - let's see how long this lasts - what's next? Raise rates. Hahahahahahaha. Maybe they've stuffed the banks with enough cash to keep this thing alive for a while or they have enough in the stealth account to keep it afloat till January. 

I may throw up on my computer this morning if GDP comes in glowing and rosy (which it will). 

On to the lie - 

SPX Daily - While the short term charts are primed and ready for a reversal (and keep getting abused) - this daily chart's not quite ready yet. Or is it? That backtest of the busted diagonal of death would make for a lovely reversal of death point - and you should suspect they know this as well. A spike in price here would really set yet another set of nasty negative divergences. 

SPX Weekly - Simple - another 30 point or so pop at this pace and the negative divergences will be truly astounding on the weekly chart. I know, this does not matter in their world, but with taper off, maybe it does this time. To add to the backtest above - a potential right shoulder (the bad kind) setup is in the making. This counters the bullish IHnS I've been showing on the 30m chart. They are all over the place here - this is what tops are made of. The negative divergences on the chart below are amazing. Can you say rigged? 

I'm still in wait and see mode. I'm a bit frozen, because I'm still in a state of disbelief at the Fed's actions or their ability to manipulate things (yes, even after all we've been through for all these years). The lies are so thick and deep, and the cost has never been greater (on many levels). Nothing makes sense anymore. This is why I recommend checking your brain at the door every morning. It will only get in your way. 

Let me add this - there may never be a better time for my "event" thank in the next week. If they can't get the vote rigged right (here, here and here), expect it. 

More to come below. 

Have a good day. 

GL and GB!

Wednesday, October 29, 2014

Morning Charts 10/29/2014 SPX /es

Sucks being right and a truther. Just ask Peter Schiff. 

Finally, finally - 

On to the lie - 

Stocks Now Most Overbought in a Year - LMAO - since when did that matter? They've managed another sensational short squeeze off the low. Ahh, the power of the Fed. Is it a wonder that most have not learned by now what's coming in such situations? The big darn question is now what? 

Well, I will not speculate, yet. I've learned to follow the Fed and not try and outguess them. I believe they will stay their course and leave the possibility for further easing wide ass open (while they use stealth QE to maintain the farce they call a market). Just leaving the possibility for further easing on the table has been enough in the opast to do their dirty work. For the bulls, what I believe you want to see is that larger IHnS formation complete itself (target near 2185). 

A pullback from here to 1925 would set a nice right shoulder, it would relieve near term overbought conditions and allow the daily indicators the room they need to set up for a bigger run (there is only one thing that would power a run to that level - MOAR). Maybe they announce moar tomorrow, the market reacts negatively and then everyone jumps on board - that's about the only way I see that 2185 getting hit. 

Yesterday price ran to resistance and met the first/lower IHnS target off the low. Too far too fast? LOL, never in the Fed's world. They don't care how it gets there, just get there baby (up that is). 

SPX 30m - Well, this is now the 4th iteration of the red rising wedge and the second overthrow situation where short term indicators have been abused. The run has been textbook for the most part - bust black resistance, backtest it and then move on up to the IHnS target. Some more abuse may be in order (up to that black diagonal backtest ~2005), but I'm not sure how much more this run can take. That black diagonal backtest will be a big deal, and it will be a point I will consider calling a major top (or here if they don't make it there). It's just one of those technical points that screams doom following a bull trap run and will be close enough to a major double top with the weekly and monthly negative divergences worsening.  

I have no clue on direction from here right now. I prefer the pullback, but who knows with the Fed tomorrow. All we can do is wait for their direction. 

More to come below. 

Have a good day. 

GL and GB!

Tuesday, October 28, 2014

Morning Charts 10/28/2014 SPX /es

No MOAR? I think that's what we'll find out Wednesday. Here are three possible reasons the Fed will announce the end of QE on Wednesday. I think they may, for now, stop the program to save face, but liquidity is the sole reason for the market's existence and severe overbought levels today. 

Without liquidity supporting the veil (market) that hides the warts and maggots that cover the US economic condition, what may be revealed is something that no one wants to witness. You don't remove the lipstick from the pig. As noted, I do believe there is a significant amount of stealth liquidity that has been used to support the taper period. This stealth QE can and will be used to mask the biggest lie yet, that the Fed's policies have all been successful economy is ready to stand on its own. 

I'm thinking #fail will be in order sooner than later. Maybe the stealth QE will be enough to get the market through the election and Christmas season. I still think that January has the potential to be really nasty. The next spill will bring the cries for moar, and the Fed will eventually deliver to save the market one last time. 

Remember, QE does not have to happen to please the markets (or so they say - see 2010 and 2011). These days it only takes a rumor, the simple might-promise or hope that QE will come again to keep the markets levitated. See the ECB rumor yesterday that trumped a train wreck of bad news. Their timing is impeccable. 

It's gonna be (and has been) all about liquidity. I said it years ago when I first got clued into their game, follow the Fed. How many years have I preached that? It's still their market. This market is all they have between them and complete failure. Don't forget that. 

On to the lie - 

SPX 30m - Same as yesterday, but worse. Sometime late today or early tomorrow I suspect the leaked directional information will show up in price. I really don't see how an end to QE would be received as a positive. Multiple technical aspects are weighing on any sort of price advancement here. Odds are Tuesday will resemble Monday as we await the Fed. 

More to come below.

Have a good day. 

GL and GB!

Monday, October 27, 2014

Morning Charts 10/27/2014 SPX /es

An absolute 100% must read that sadly fits the governments recent motif - just take it baby - 

"They Just Want The Money!" The IRS Can Now Seize Accounts On Suspicion Alone

"Her money was seized under an increasingly controversial area of law known as civil asset forfeiture, which allows law enforcement agents to take property they suspect of being tied to crime even if no criminal charges are filed. Law enforcement agencies get to keep a share of whatever is forfeited."

This is not really new, back in March we started covering how Cops Use Traffic Stops To Seize Millions From Drivers Never Charged With A CrimeThis is scary stuff. You get pulled over or just shaken down on the side of the street and you can't do shit about it. Welcome to the land of the free(loading government). 

STB may not be around much longer if the FEC chief has her way. Read FEC Democrat pushes for controls on Internet political speechMan things would be dull as crap if all we could talk about was BTFD all day (and the term BTFD may even be deemed as politically incorrect). 

If you can't see it coming folks you are blind as a bat. This country is falling apart. Sadly few realize just how bad things are, and the state of denial and deceit is out of control here. 

Across the pond - Things in Europe are just fine - $1.1 Trillion in bad debt and 25 banks fail their latest version of a stress test. Nothing to see here, just go BTFD. 

On to the lie - 

SPX 30m - This chart pretty much puts things in perspective - but does it? This is the third iteration of the red rising red wedge (nothing unusual for the Fed to bust through bearish formations). A move south here or from a bit higher to form a right shoulder for a larger IHnS formation looks like a good possibility. Price has trickled over the 61% retracement which virtually guarantees a new ATH if recent trends hold true. The daily 50dma is providing resistance here along with negative divergences on the 60m chart and lesser time frames. A pullback from here to the 1925 area would make for an interesting setup. 

More to come below. 

Have a good week. 

GL and GB!

Friday, October 24, 2014

Open Weekend Post 10/25-26/2014

You know the drill, share the love and the knowledge. 

If you see it, share it. I will as well. 

Curious spot technically for a close (after what 'd call a curious day Friday). 

I'll update some charts to try and discover any non QE nuggets that may move the markets. 

Have a good weekend. 

Say HBD Shanky (Saturday)!

GL and GB!

Morning Charts 10/24/2014 SPX /es

Ebola fears abound and the market does not like it.  

AMZN ouch

Continuing yesterday's fallout - Democraps scrambling like rats on a sinking ship with nowhere to go

On to the lie - 

No POMO and this chart and AMZN and Ebola = Sionara

SPX 15m - Wow what a long setup with the break and backtest of upper falling megaphone resistance and the thrashing and remanufacture of the red rising wedge for a third time all on top of that inverse head and shoulders targeting near 1980 while squeezing the shorts to death again and working in two overthrows and three gaps up. They even managed to take out the 61% retracement - which virtually guarantees a new ATH to come. BUT then went pomo and came all the news above. Friday has potential to be disasterous, and it that's the case it could start a new wave of selling that will scare the pants off most. 

More to come below. 

Have a good weekend. 

GL and GB!

Thursday, October 23, 2014

Morning Charts 10/23/2014 SPX /es

O's abandonment is in full swing now. After STB discussing the coming of this months ago and the dangers of the lamest lone duck ever, the libtards and democraps are now basically abandoning the administration's ship. Can you blame them? 

After noting recently that even Obozo's flagship station MSNBC is starting to daringly speak in a negative tone about his highness, today the leading MSNBC libtard mouthpiece says, "It's like Obama has Ebola." Let's put it this way, 

"The ineptitude of the White House political operation has sunk from annoying to embarrassing,"

Good thing there wont't be any voting irregularities this time - wait - there was a problem in Illinois (noooo way) where the GOP votes in early voting were transformed into votes for democrats. Don't worry, it was just a calibration error. In Illinois, that's the last place one would think such a thing would happen. Ya think they showed their hand a bit early? 

It's a good thing there are no worries of voter fraud this early in the election cycle in CO, NC or NYC. It's still early, things will heat up soon one would suspect. I'm so relieved that race or immigrant voters will not be an issue. 

I mean who would not want to vote for all of Obozo's policies that are on the ballot? He said they are there. He's proud of them and not backing down from this point. We're either bout to find out just how stupid and ignorant voters are in America or just how rigged the system is. Either way, we'll be left with the lamest duck potus and his pen. That's a horrifying thought. 

Want to read some of the most wasteful things your government spends money on? Check this out - Senator Tom Coburn's Wastebook. 74 pages of inglorious expenditures. Just read the table of contents - you may not want to read any further. 

As you well know, things are really screwed up in DC, and no matter the end results of the coming election - they will only get worse. That's virtually guaranteed. 

You should look at this - 10 Things About The U.S. News Media That They Do Not Want You To Know

On to the lie - 

SPX 5m - Hmmm, was yesterday what we can expect from future non pomo days? Good luck for bully as today is a pomo day. I'm not sure how that's going to work with the HnS that formed yesterday at the top (targeting 1910). This HnS target works well with the backtest scenario of the larger IHnS neckline breakout as well as the original overthrow point backtest (which it has done regularly). 

Pomo today does work for the underthrow that happened late in the selloff yesterday. Pomo and pos divs after an underthrow? That should work for bully, if not and things continue to fall, then that adds to the strength of the rebound to come (just as the excessive overthrow added to the fall). 

One thing that did work (after the fact) was the overthrow Tuesday and all the neg divs I kept prompting about. The fall late yesterday was a factor of the abuse of the upper falling megaphone resistance and the end of the rising red wedge - they really got carried away yesterday morning and paid the price late. 

So, again, we're left overnight at another technical fork in the road. Not as blatant as yesterday, but still there. The main difference between the two days - pomo and no pomo. So, what do you think will happen? 

Good news update - Bently the Cavalier tests negative for ebola! Yay!

More to come below. 

Have a good day. 

GL and GB!

Wednesday, October 22, 2014

Morning Charts 10/22/2014 SPX /es

Not sure, maybe for 5 (five) years I've been saying this - VIX=Busted. Nothing is real. 

If it costs the Fed $200 billion per quarter to avoid a market crash, then it's probably not that long till that number works to its way to $200 billion a day the rate we're headed (and that will be deemed affordable and good for everyone). 

No, it is not about the military industrial complex, and if you say it is you will be called a conspiracy nut. 

Well, if you have a 33% chance of being on file with the FBI, then imagine the improvement of those odds if you're here reading this now!

As some have noted explicitly in the comments section - Green cards will be free and abundant after the election. Oh Joy! There are plenty of jobs, insurance and entitlements for all. 34 MILLION new immigrant ID's ordered! Now I see where the manufacturing boom he's spoken of is coming from (assuming the ID's are even made in America. 

On to the lie - 

SPX 30m - I think this chart has everything you need. Price has moved from the underthrow of megaphone support to the upper megaphone resistance (rapidly on rumors of potential additional global QE from anywhere). Price had an overthrow of all the negative divergences yesterday to get to this point while overthrowing the red rising wedge that got price to this point. Oh, price climbed right through the 38% retracement and is currently at the 61% retracement as well. Note - every trip above the 61% retracement has led to fresh new ATHs. While price is at this sensational near term reversal spot, there is one slight problem - that inverse head and shoulder pattern below the black horizontal neckline - that lone pink vertical line is the target measurement - this takes price to the 1970 area and well above the 61% retracement. Want more? That 1977 area would be a great spot for another neckline and right shoulder to form making an even larger IHnS. For the bears - a reversal here could kick off a brutal - like really brutal fall. This is a point where the charts could predict an event of sorts that turns price on a dime. 

More to come below. 

Have a good day. 

GL and GB!

Tuesday, October 21, 2014

Morning Charts 10/21/2014 SPX /es

Like I have said for literally years now, follow the Fed. That may be easier said now than done at this immediate time with the Fed heading into the blackout period, and the news they've doled out over the past couple of weeks has been worse than a local weather forecast. Hot, cold, rain, sun, windy, calm - who can tell right? 

There should always be questions regarding the Fed;s actions and intentions, Right now my question is does confusion reign, or is the mix of Fed speak intentional? (or does it just follow the prevailing wind?) The Fed has become quite adept at just in time announcements, whether the need be hot or cold (and they can even be opposite in the same day).

This chart from zero hedge sums up the past week or so of Fed speak action. I called for the dove speak a day ahead of Williams first utterance on the 14th. Then they played whatever cards they wanted when as usual. 

Right now I'm in a holding pattern waiting their mandate. POMO is still flowing with Thursday the only day this week without additional market assistance. 

On to the lie - 

SPX 10m - The cross above 1898 negated a few technical items and opened the door for moar upside. There is still a battle waging though. The red rising wedge support cracked and negative short term divergences are weighing after this pop off the bottom tot eh 38% retracement. On the other hand there could be a rather large inverse head and shoulders pattern with price moving through the 1898 neckline that targets as high as the resistance area around 1978. 

Resistance areas are 12-15, around 30, and then upper black resistance near 45. If the 61% retracement goes the odds are really good that they will push price right back up to a new ATH. The election/Xmas ramp thought process must be headed. The market remains their main grand illusion generator. I don't think they are ready to let things go quite yet. Remain patient. You may have to wait till next week for clarity from the Fed on QE direction. I don't think we're out of the confusion stage quite yet. We may not be out of the dip stage quite yet either. For those into the EWT thing, I have a feeling the counters are gonna get burned one last time. 

More to come below. 

Have a good day. 

GL and GB!

Monday, October 20, 2014

Morning Charts 10/20/2014 SPX /es

The cry for MOAR - STB's biggest fear for how long now? I'm actually surprised they were able to let the SPX drift 10% and stop it. I guess when things are this overvalued and this out of whack, what's 10% among friends? When the fall started to pick up some steam and they lost a bit of control, they bring out the big guns. 

I've remained quite calm during this spill, wondering if or when they'd start crying for moar. I was a day early on predicting the call last week. I'm not about to give you a primer on the subject. I've been harping on it for years. I'll let this ZH post summarize things. 

"And we better get moar... because the gap between perception and reality is huge..."

I'll put it as simply as I can, no QE and everything goes POOF! No matter the long term consequences. No matter the inevitable result of endless printing. Like a junkie, moar is better. Waking up from the hopium induced high will only expose the horrific surroundings we're living in. The US is now the equivalent of a rat/bug infested, trash filled, should be condemned crack house. Best to just stay as fucked up as possible for as long as we can and not sober up. 

Two words - election and Christmas (not to mention the distraction they want the market to be from all the Orwellian issues dominating the globe right now), must be considered. 

On to the lie - 

The setup allows for a move either way right here. If south the move has a chance to be even more impulsive than last week. If north, they've hit the breaks and a larger retracement should be in order. The move north depends on how much hopium they decide to inject (rumor, promise or real). 

SPX Daily - Oversold, only one positive divergence andthe MACD histogram turned Friday. Bottom line is (see past lows on the chart), they don't need any sort of technical signal to make a bottom. They can just declare one whenever they want. 

SPX 15m - Friday I noted if they kept a lower high things had potential to get hairy. Either red wedge (bear flag) scenario is not great. There is a chance of an IHnS here with a neckline at 1898. That would yield about a 1980 target. 

More to come below. 

Have a good week. 

GL and GB!

Friday, October 17, 2014

Open Weekend Post 10/18-19/2014

You know the drill, share the love and the knowledge. 

If you see it, share it. 

I'll update charts and post anything I find. 

I'll be an FSU fan Saturday night. I hate the Notre Dreamers. 

Have a good weekend. 

GL and GB!

Morning Charts 10/17/2014 SPX /es

So much to talk about, and I'm not feeling it, so ...

On to the lie - 

SPX 60m - This chart kind of puts my brain in perspective. What was once an elaborate and elegant top setup has become a jumbled mess. Rising wedge, backtests, overthrows, divergences, classic breakdowns have all given way to ... a tumble that is still trying to identify itself. Was/Is the breakdown a channel, a wedge, a megaphone, a channel again or none of the above? Technical underthrows are now commonplace where for the past five years they were virtually outlawed. Oversold is now a term that I will even entertain using (lightly or temporarily). As I said yesterday, I guess when a lie comes unwound (temporarily or permanently - not sure of the case here yet) things can get a bit ugly. 

SPX 15m - Again, this is STB's brain on crack. What was once clean and neat, just the way I like it - mostly predictable following some predictable or forseable order - the bottom just keeps falling out. What's worse? Dare I say that my counting (don't do it - just don't) has worked better than anything I've been able to throw at it. Scary - if I'm counting this right - and some other count's I've looked at confirm - we're just getting started. Now let me say this, I've always, always out-called and out-timed the counters, and I will not be beat. 

Chaos - that's what breakdowns are all about. This market is like some freak transgender looking for an identity right now. It's difficult when your boyfriend/sugar daddy has sent you out into the cold having lied and misled you about reality for the past 5 years. To make things worse, he teases you about how he may actually start funding your hopium habit again. What a mess. 

I actually believe I call a falling market better than a booming one. This will be my third shot at a major breakdown - I guess it takes a bit of time getting your bearings when the poles flip. That is, if it has flipped. Let me add that I still don't think the STB "event" has happened unless Ebola is it. Another issue this time is that we've never dealt with a truly, unprecedentedly manipulated falling market before. This may be the first rodeo of such for all of us. One thing is certain - the stakes have never been higher. 

More to come below. 

Have a good weekend. 

GL and GE!

Thursday, October 16, 2014

Morning Charts 10/16/2014 SPX /es

I got about half way through a rant about how the market is a distraction to reality and ebola is further distracting the masses and deleted it. It was not ... angry enough. Yesterday in the comments section I mentioned the bigger picture. I just want you all to not be blind sided from all the distractions. 

What's coming and what's being hidden are far more important than your portfolio. You live in a country on the verge of annihilation - from inside out. I know you know, and we discuss this endlessly everyday. I just want to make sure that you don't lose focus on what's truly important. Shit's about to go down that none of us want to experience. 

On to the lie - 

Daily SPX - USD and TNX getting abused. Oh, price is as well. The indicators don't look well at all. Deeply oversold and the short term charts keep getting abused (even on top of a Fed cry for QE). This is extremely extreme. 

SPX 15m - The falling megaphone support busted yesterday. Excuse me? How? What? Say that again? That is a move reserved for extremes not a retracement. The short term setup going into yesterday was really good for a bounce of some sort, and that got thrown out with the second major technical underthrow in the past three days even with the Fed QE speak. The beautiful falling wedge to falling megaphone support with positive ST divergences got blown up and is now a now a falling channel.

Overall, the short term charts keep trying but can't make the turn. I have not seen technical underthrow abuse like this since '08. The daily and weekly charts are not helping the cause. They look horrific. 

I'm struggling somewhat with the excessiveness of this move at this point. Sub 1886 and it should collapse, and maybe that was the reason for the stick save late yesterday. It's deserved, no doubt. It's been overdue and expected, no doubt. It's all a lie, no doubt. Maybe the extreme case is generating the extremity? Maybe when a lie comes unwound, normalcy in its unraveling is not to be expected. 

At this time, it appears that there could be much worse to come before any form of meaningful corrective is in order. Translated - without QE they are screwed till they announce moar. Much worse is to come if they don't intervene (which they tried and failed with Williams Tuesday). The hard part now is trying to figure out what they want. Are they losing control for real, or are they allowing the fall? I don't trust them one bit. It is still their market, I think. 

More to come below. 

Have a good day. 

GL and GB!

Wednesday, October 15, 2014

Morning Charts 10/15/2014 SPX /es

MOAR! I've been harping about the next potential round of QE since the Syria FF dip. STB's biggest fear. When they are cornered. When their system is dying. When it's all they have left to stay alive (even in a dying cause - even of it means complete destruction of the US), moar will be promised and potentially delivered.

I was a day early on the call for moar
"Actually, it may well be QE5, or QE6 depending on how one counts Operation Twist and the extension of QE3, but what matters is that the countdown to whatever it is, has begun courtesy of none other than one of the Fed's biggest doves, the head of the Fed which spawned Janet Yellen, San Francisco Fed's John Williams"

If inflation trends were to fail Williams says - well have you checked rates lately? ZIRP is working its way into the common markets with the 30yr sub 3%. Of course there is no inflation - last time I bought a gallon of milk my CC almost got rejected it was so damn expensive. Remember the STB tuna rant. The breakfast bar rant. The snickers rant. No inflation here as long as the way you calculate things suits your needs. (hint - they do the same with employment)

It was so easy to call tops on the way up. Just look for the end of QE and POOF! go the markets. People thought I was so smart calling the '10 and '11 tops weeks and months in advance noting how terrible the subsequent months would be. I would have gotten my Q1 '13 call spot on a year and a half in advance if they had not QE4eva'd (STB's best ever tweet - "unprecedented manipulation" the moment it was announced)

All you had to know was when QE was ending. As for the bottoms - you got it - the first Hilsenrath rumor or the beginning of the next round of QE and BOOM! off to the races. Back then all they had to do was mention or promise QE was coming and the shorts got slaughtered and the race was on. Well, here we go again, except this time the markets figured it out a few weeks in advance. QE is about to end, markets are failing and they are already calling for moar. Guess what's gonna happen when the next round of QE is announced?

Up, up and away - for a moment at least. The last bull trap. The suckers rally. The move to the ultimate top where you pull everything. The moment I've been waiting for for years where I go balls deep short. The ATH may be set, but this top will be the most painful taking most off guard. For those already out, so be it. This is not a game of chicken. Take some risk capital and play the rips if you like, but no more. If you decide to stay in, think bug meets windshield. I've been telling you to take profits all the way out of the system.

You have been warned. Remember, as I have warned, they take it all back and in a hurry. I told you to take profits back in July. They have an election and Christmas season to get through - January is setting up to be a real bitch if they can save it here. Do not forget how many greedy sucker sheeple there are out there waiting for that moment, the moment of the STB "event" where they all head for the gates at once. They closed the "gates" for a reason. I think we're within 6 months of things getting really ugly - IF they manage to turn things around here. 

Side note - Ebola hits home for STB (sort of) - Bentley the Cavalier King Charles Spaniel is in isolation - I own two Cavies (Sir Winston and Spencer) and think the world of them. They are possibly the coolest sweetest dogs on the planet. I hope things work out best for him.

On to the lie - 

SPX 15m - For a more detailed description see yesterday's post - I got a little warm late yesterday talking bout double bottoms and positive divergences with a few other upwards caveats. They've blown through several bullish setups so far, another would not be a surprise. There is still a chance they have to move lower (the missing 4 and 5 - following the 1,2,3 (5-3-5) move we've already had. As noted I like to count in 3's and not 5's if I'm counting (which I hate). 

This chart says it all for me. Falling wedge, underthrow, bust up and break resistance, price falls to a double bottom backtesting busted resistance the whole way down, sets decent short term positive divergences and Williams is talking QE. If this setup fails to deliver, they got real problems.

If earnings go south, QE will come faster than stink on shit.

More to come below. 

Have a good day. 

GL and GB!

Tuesday, October 14, 2014

Morning Charts 10/14/2014 SPX /es

"someone - apparently having waited to see if the almost 'ubiquitous' 330pm Ramp would occur - decided it was time to dump three-quarters of a billion dollars notional of US equity market exposure in 1 second."

How they absorbed the trade on a liquidity-less day I have no clue, but it's shit like this that I've been warning about. A few more of these doozies and you gotta wonder who else is in line that does not want to wait in line any longer. There has never been a more dangerous time in history to be long equities IMHO.

On to the lie - 

OK I updated all of the SPX charts last night. What I found is best shown on this SPX 15m chart - Blue falling channel inside black falling megaphone with green A-E falling wedge that had its support underthrown on an E wedge touch which should finish that falling formation. There are few positive divergences on any time frame because the move through 1912 cause an underthrow situation  where the pos divs that did exist got abused (vertical pink dashed). 

As I was counting last week - after the first 5 down the clear ABC reversal to 1970 that kept under 1977 made for the top of a 2 which led to this impulsive 3 I warned could come.We now have a clear 5-3-5 move. That is about as far as I like to count things. If that is a 1-2-3 then there is a 4 and 5 to come or whatever sort of count you use to choose (I still suggest you don't count). TA has three clear patterns in play now use them. Worst case scenario is a small ABC here then a truly impulsive 3 down would follow for a third of a third.

A corrective here should finally be in order - 12, 25, 29 and 50 are the targets in order. Anything above 77 invalidates most counts unless you get a 4 and 5 move here.

More to come below. 

Have a good day. 

GL and GB!

Sunday, October 12, 2014

Morning Charts 10/13/2014 SPX /es

Just a few headlines to start you week. 

"the Friday rout has continued into the early Sunday night trading"

"That didn't last long... NKY back under 15k as JPY collapses"

"the chief economist at China’s central bank said Saturday that he doesn’t see any reason for large-scale fiscal or monetary stimulus “in the foreseeable future”"

And you may wonder why they "closed the gates" last summer

Any questions? And who's been telling you since before June that gains would simply vaporize? 

We need a good panic selling day to really get things going. Anyone ready for a DOW -500 day? Anything is possible.

On to the lie -

SPX Weekly - New chart that's real clean and shows all you need to know about the major downside support. Everything from the vertical black line - the overthrow at the beginning of 2013 should get wiped out in a hurry.

VIX whoud take out resistance at the open if futures remain the way they are. I'd say a move to38 or 42 would about do it before major response from the Fed comes.

More to come below.

Have a good week.

GL and GB!

Friday, October 10, 2014

Open Weekend Post 10/11-12/2014

You know the drill, share the love and the knowledge. 

If you see it, share it. I will do the same. 

I'll update all sorts of stuff to get some sort of handle on thigs - up or down. 

Interesting times right now. Awfully calm giving the market levels. 

Thanks for another great week on the blog. 

Have a good weekend. 

GL and GB!

Morning Charts 10/10/2014 SPX /es

 No commentary today. I think you've got the big picture. 

On to the lie - 

First, I think on the first big fall (which should be now) all the gains from the first/initial overthrow at the beginning of 2013 - where in 2011 I said the market would top cause they could not extend things any further - which at that point they initiated QE4eva or it rightfully would have vaporized then - will be taken back - this means DOW 14,475, SPX 1475 and RUT 868 - or a backtest of the prior ATH levels of each. It should not take long to get to these levels either. About the only question is can they hold the market up or ramp it one last time into the election as they did into prior elections. I'm not sure they will be able to this time. That said, the Fed has proven they are capable on anything related to lifting the market - regardless of the situation.

INDU Daily - First let's start back in the beginning of 2013 when price overthrew the long term rising blue wedge. This was the point where the true ridiculousness truly started (around 13,650). From here price formed the red rising wedge of insanity. Almost two improbable years later, we arrive at this -

After a failure of the red rising wedge and backtest of busted support to make the double top and technical overthrow of the negative divergences price has now fallen to ultra critical support from near term support diagonal (blue) and the 200 dma. If this should fail then the next stop is the long term blue rising wedge support near 15,700 (That's 1,000 points from here). Then the near term black diagonal support lies near 15,400. The final support in this area is the old blue rising wedge resistance near 15,250. Below that is the 38% retracement off the climb off the Nov '12 lows near 14,775. 

This is a perfect technical setup of disastrous proportions. If support fails here, the CME/PPT will have more than its hands full trying to manage the carnage that will come. I've often said, the herd is not going to sit this through another 2008. They will exit and possibly all at once. Vaporized will be the headline. If you think they have issues managing the ebola fears, just wait for their darling DOW to falter. 

RUT Weekly - The consequences of the INDU setup above can be seen on the RUT. Meet upper LT resistance at improbable levels, rising channel failure, backtest at double top with horrible negative divergences and let go. RUT taking out key support yesterday setting a lower low was really not good. 1025 and 980 are RUT key support points and should be the targets from here.

SPX Weekly - Sorry that note on the chart that I wrote well over a year and a half ago about the market crashing before this point did not say at this point. TA is amazing, I have always had faith price would get it right, and I knew this point was absolutely as far as they could manage the run before price took over. Funny, Prechter makes millions talking shit, and I generate possibly the most prophetic chart anyone has produced in years and get ... bubkus. 

SPX Monthly - Wonder if I'll get any cred when this target box gets hit? I drew this before the one above. 

More to come below. 

Have a good weekend. 

GL and GB!

Thursday, October 9, 2014

Morning Charts 10/09/2014 SPX /es

I think you need to know this - During An Ebola Pandemic All Of Your Rights Would Essentially Be Meaningless.
"If that sounds like "martial law" to you, that is because it would essentially be martial law."
Now, in the event of a real outbreak (if this is not a Bill Gates designed plague so he can own and control the new vaccine or if it is not an epidemic that the UN has allowed to run wild as the eugenics part of their sustainable development plan) I think some serious measures need to be taken and some rights will have to be forfeited by those infected and those that were in contact. This shit is real and folks are dying horrific deaths. We need to be concerned. 

And as for the economic impact from the outbreak (that no one could have possibly seen coming - just like they can't see bubbles), the banks are finally starting to warn about a slowdown caused by the outbreak (just in time cause they were about to have to take the heat for their complete policy failure - this really would be the ultimate cover (for many, many things) - and may wind up being the STB "event"). 

So, would they allow or cause an outbreak? Boy is this the stuff conspiracy theories are made of or what? Think about all the issues we've discussed for years here at STB. Think about how deep the hole is. Is there any way out? What would it take (as we discuss all the time) for them to be able to distract the nation from the horror show they've created (and be able to confiscate all our wealth at the same time - for our own protection)? 

Could the false flag have landed in their lap? We all know that the best way to solve the employment and entitlement problem - just kill off the poor and elderly. Poof - full employment in a world that is now a police state. Incredible? Not really, more like their wet dream. 

On to the lie - 

SPX 60m - OK, this chart has done the best work into and from the top. I've reviewed the green rising wedge overthrow of black diagonal resistance to the breakdown, to set new lower diagonal, backtest busted, breakdown new support and black support, backtest both of those, breakdown to lower black support IHnS ABC rebound and fail to the dashed green original green rising wedge fail target. All that worked better than the daily MAs actually. 

Textbook and simple - TA worked like a dream - now what? Well I had the blue wedge/channel breakdown pattern that worked well with two nice technical underthrows of support that caused corrections. It appears the blue upper resistance has failed, so I drew up the red falling channel last night. I don't like it, but it is the only thing I see now (other than another falling channel that I have not drawn yet). 

I've been counting - you know I despise it like no other, but a few 3's and 5's linked together can work - in this case there is a chance that if price holds here or stays under 1978, a horrific impulsive fail (3 of a 3) could happen. This is something I'm just looking at as a possibility. 

There are 5 resistance points between 78 and 92. What needs to be noted is that anything over 1982 (STB bull/bear line) and the odds of a higher high are like - 100% - every retrace of every correction that's crossed the 61% mark has managed the impossible. Not saying is has to or will, but this is something that must be considered. Maybe this is the time it does not or headfakes. 

Does someone care to explain the ramp yesterday on news that should have trounced the market? It's all F'd up now. Total illusion. 100% fake, so get/stay used to it. The riggedness, if yesterday is any indication, may become even worse or more blatant. The only reason markets moved up on the worst possible news - the guarantee of the return of only one thing - QE. It's all so fubar now. 

More to come below. 

Have a good day. 

GL and GB!

Wednesday, October 8, 2014

Morning Charts 10/08/2014 SPX /es

Spiraling out of control? I think that would be a fantastic way of describing our current situation. If not in the complete vertical dive yet, we're out of fuel, lost an engine and the control stick is coming lose from the plane (and a UFO caused complete power loss). 

Let's start/continue with the demise of our muslim/loser/idiot/race baiter/lier-in-chief - Panetta just hammered Obozo - like threw him so far under the bus that he may never come out the other side, 

"That is key in Washington. In order for presidents to succeed, they cannot just -- when they run into problems, step back and give up"

Yes, he went there and on MSNBC of all channels. It's one of those situations where O is on fire and no one will even piss on him to put him out. That's how deep we've lost our leadership. Of course, it is 100% deserved. He sucks. He lies. He cheats. He golfs. He does not do jack shit except screw everything up that he touches. He's not only spent more money than all the presidents combined before him, but he's screwed up more than all of them combined as well. Let's just leave it at that, cause I was just getting started. 

I think O's figuring out this is not a fake it till you make it situation. Well, either that or he's on a mission to destroy this country (which many can conclude as fact here, here, here and here). He's basically been reduced to a fund raising tool. He's so unpopular that with the most important election in years for the democraps, few is any of them want him anywhere near their campaigns. How bad is it, well when your "home state" drops plans to name a park in your honor, I don't think it can get any worse. 

How bout all that, markets falling and the second blood moon tonight! Nah, nothing biblical going down here. No worries, we're just going though a slight trouble stage. All is well, now go get a student loan and buy a car or two

And for good measure, just so you know that you are always being told the truth - another WB clasic "Examples of such evidence are this, and this, and this, and this, and this, and this, and this, and this, and this."

And ...... Reporter From Right-Leaning News Site Blocked From Attending Dem Rally With Michell Obama…

And ... I also suggest you read from WB - Beyond 935 Lies

And .... Try this one on for size - Denver Census Bureau Supervisors Says Unemployment Numbers Are Being Faked… 

"And this whistleblower — who asked that I not identify her — said her bosses in Denver ignored her warnings even after she provided details of wrongdoing by three different survey takers."

On to the lie - 

SPX Daily - At this rate, there will not be any positive divergences if they reach a double bottom to motivate a turn. 1920 things get interesting. 1903 asses start to munch chairs. 1886 sell stops kick in and it's all over. 

SPX Weekly - And how far do we have to fall? Well, for perspective, 1502 is the 38% retrace of the move off 667. After just having been at 2019, that's a long way down for a basic/fundamental market move. Hmmm, now if thy had only let it retrace normally on the way up .... oh, yeah, that's right, they couldn't let it. That market crash line I put on there a few years back may be pretty sporty if things play out from here. 

More to come below. 

Have a good day, 

GL and GB!

Tuesday, October 7, 2014

Morning Charts 10/07/2014 SPX /es

Sticking with the you're not being told the truth topic - “Journalists have no choice but to fight back because if they don’t, they will become irrelevant,” Risen said. “I know what Elijah Lovejoy did.”
So much for being Captain Transparency,  “I think Obama hates the press. I think he doesn’t like the press and he hates leaks.” All this is from a NYT reporter which adds to the fact that Obummer is losing control of his support infrastructure. That adds to what I started talking about in June - the abandonment of O. 

The FBI is warning that al-CIAda militants are planning an attack in the US. STB sez - no shit Sherlock. A blind man could have made that call even without "proof" (lol) from sources. Name a day we don't discuss the coming domestic false flag here on the blog? Sadly when it happens it will be so blundered and sloppily performed that we'll spot the "culprit" almost immediately.

For Ebola news go to Drudge. There is plenty of it. I have not gone conspiracy crazy yet on this one, but I do fear that it is out of control in Africa. The circumstances to gain control at this point will eventually involve isolating possibly cities and shooting those that try to escape. It will be like watching a Hollywood film. It's gonna be terrible. If it does get out of control here, then it will be because the government wants it to. Oh, and don't pay any attention to the 100.000 or more illegals here bringing in God knows what diseases across the wide-ass open border. 

On to the lie - 

Three dollar charts for you - 

Weekly 20 yrs
Weekly Short

Daily -  

SPX 10m - Bull flag breakout and backtest? IHnS target hit with pomo assistance and an overthrow this morning.ABC reversal and more (much) downside to come? Setting up another larger IHnS to explode wiht all those 'awesome' earnings reports about to come? So many questions and little help from the nt os charts right now indicating direction. Course they don't need any help reversing off bottoms. They simply lift technically ready or not. Too early to start the election ramp? I'm in wait and see mode. Right now this thing could literally go either way.


More to come below. 

Have a good day. 

GL and GB!