Friday, January 14, 2011

Morning Post, SPX, S&P 500, e-mini

Monday I will have a new web address. I will leave a link in a post here redirecting you to the new .com site.

30m charts are on their 5th divergence here (we saw eight in the September run if I remember correctly). Earnings all over the place as well as econ data. Retail disappoints as expected and that should bleed into the rest of earnings season putting a damper on upside enthusiasm along with climbing oil and commodity prices. I'm tired of sounding like a broken record, but at this point in the markets all there is to do is wait on liquidity to dry up.

This 60m chart is setting another divergence and looks to be rolling over for the 6th time since it's lows. You can see the gaps and some of the confusion regarding where to put the diagonals. I hate ugly charts, but that is all the market is delivering. Patterns and set points to form true diagonals off are simply not there.Fibs and gaps are evident.

As we have discussed for some time I then were nearing or in some sort of top. This cycle chart is getting close. The question becomes, in the face of POMO, HFT and the other fraud, how much can the bears pull it back till liquidity dries up. Look at all the round levels that are in the ballpark, SPX1300, RUT 800 and DOW 13000. Those are dual edged swords that can either accept and further price movements or reject them like a bad habit. Keep an eye out for these and the markets reaction to them.

If we get some momo south the minis have support diagonals near 71, 66 and 60. On SPX let's see if we can get price thru the 1274 level before going any further with the conversation (then 62 and 55).

Here is my SPX daily cycle chart again. You can see the purple wedge overthrow that I have been discussion for a couple of weeks now, the daily divergences and that price has entered my red box which means a turn should be very near. the turn at the last cycle point was extremely brief which should add to the severity of this next correction.
Dollar appears to be hitting support at 79. the AUD is gatting hammered and I think will lose all correlations with markets due to the epic/biblical (yes, another biblical event is happening - Aetna is erupting) floods. Gold is falling and about to hit LT support again.

GL, GB and have a great weekend.

Thursday, January 13, 2011

Morning Post, SPX, S&P 500, e-mini

No matter what happens on the cash side, the minis are simply tracking that support/resistance diagonal that goes back to the beginning of this run in late August. Here is the action since support became resistance in early November.So the minis are simply trending higher on lower volatility. You call that a churn. Not gonna OD on charts this AM as the topping process is continuing. See past few posts for more detail if you like.

We hit the 1283 SPX target I had. Things look tentative everywhere. I am still holding the TZA and SDS trades from yesterday and will guard them carefully. At this point I must continue to caution about further upside action no matter what the charts say. The Fed (broken record) is in control with POMO and you MUST yield to them and follow their lead. Markets are super toppy. I think this is the last move up. I really hope to hit my late January/early February top in time. We have hit the 1283 target. Remember those round numbers are like emotional magnets and they also contain hidden offers, so 1300 is something you MUST know is in the neighborhood. My 30m short chart $TRIN sell signal is going off, so let's look down and see if the bears can gain any momo and at least get yesterday's move back. Baby steps here.

I'll keep saying it till it happens, but until they pull liquidity or we have my exogenous event, you need to be really careful taking your short shots. Don't worry about nailing the top and eking out that first two percent. There will be plenty of time to make money once the turn is in. It is more important to get the trade right and invest with discipline (as hard as that is to do sometimes). Always have a plan and always use stops. Most importantly, never be afraid to end the relationship with a losing trade.

Jobs disappoint. Natgas at 10:30.

The new POMO schedule is here!

Earnings calendar is here. INTC after the close and JPM in the AM.

Econ calendar here. Plenty of action tomorrow morning that can move the markets.

GL and GB.

Wednesday, January 12, 2011

Morning Post, SPX, S&P 500, e-mini

You bail one out you gotta bail 'em all out and Portugal is the latest in a long line of countries that have and will keep coming to the tit for more fiat infusion to keep the dream alive. Oh happy day. Another bond auction that did not fail. Green Shoots! Tremendous new that is. Germany and France survive another week. This game can not go on forever (but "they obviously think it can). I ask, if Greece was $120B in debt and had to borrow another $120B to stay alive, how can a country whose major exports are ouzo, grape leaves and tourism gonna pay back even the interest on such a loan not to mention the principal? When this all ends is ends very badly with (as we have been forecasting for well over a year) global default.

I did a post charting the minis today HERE.

MW making me smile watching CNBS for a change.

I suggest you take a peak at the econ calendar HERE. The rest of this week is pretty busy.  Especially Friday morning. INTC after the close tomorrow and JPM before the open on Friday.

Dollar struggling to get thru the resistance at the $81 level. Been range bound since the end of the year from $79 to $81. Looks to be trending down now.

New POMO schedule comes today at 2:00.

The charts say some sort of top is coming sooner than later. While with our investments we still must yield to the Fed and the manipulators, you need to keep an eye on the overbought and over bullish markets with deteriorating indicators. I have been calling a target of 1283 (with a possibility of more upside) in late January or early February. Gonna take a catalyst to make that happen I believe. It is amazing what $7 to $9 billion a day can do for the markets while 33 of the past 34 weeks have seen new mutual fund outflows of over $90B and insider selling has been at or near record levels.

CPC - Note not only the red EMA 20 that I use to make the calls, but the blue EMA 100 is even beginning to reach extremes. $BPNYA looks like it wants to cross and the divergence in the $NYMO is pretty sick.

Daily SPX - Just look at it and ask how can it extend from here based on surrounding economic conditions? Or why is is here as well. 

Daily SPC Cycle Chart -

GL and GB

Tuesday, January 11, 2011

Morning Post, SPX, S&P 500, e-mini

Quick (and late) post this AM. Sorry, I had internet connectivity issues this morning.

Still looking for 1283 in late Jam or early Feb as the target. Not discounting even more upside. It appears we're in some sort of topping process as what I see as a wedge overthrow (indicating a top) is in process. That said and with patterns since mid '09 of these wedges "reforming" and extending. This may only be the C touch and not the E touch marking the top. If an overthrow E, these processes can take some time. the one in April took almost a month (which is what I think is happening here).

I hope we top in the next red box for good, but QE and the Fed will have something to say about that.We're darn close to it now. The difference between this top and the one in April - simple - the Fed quit pulling liquidity then, not so this time. I'm screaming the debt ceiling discussions will be the biggest deal of all and QEIII discussions will be vital as well. Market does not fall till liquidity is pulled and then it all ends - quickly.

Monday, January 10, 2011

Morning Post, SPX, S&P 500, e-mini

Half ice and half snow but we still have power down here in SW GA. Three flurry days and two actual accumulations (added with two accumulations last year) compared to no measurable snow in the past 7 years makes the global warming theory lose some merit down here.

Quick post this AM while I figure out if I will be going to the office or not.

I posted a bunch of charts in the previous post yesterday. Check those out.

Minis off 6. Maybe we get that larger move south that we were counting Friday. 30m minis testing the 1260 close lows from Friday. If those give way we're looking for 56 then 50 there.

From CNBC's pre-market email, "There are no economic stats for release today - and no pre-market earnings of note.  However, the start of earnings season comes this afternoon, when Dow component Alcoa (AA) releases its earnings after the closing bell.  One of the few events of note on today's calendar is a speech by Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart at 12:40pm ET in Atlanta, where he'll speak about the progress of the U.S. economic comeback."

We've been discussing earnings beginning today.  "Several Dow components besides Alcoa are in the news this morning: Verizon (VZ) is reportedly set to announce the availability of Apple's iPhone for its customers, with that announcement coming tomorrow.  That will make both Verizon and rival AT&T (T) stocks to watch, as the reported announcement will end AT&T's iPhone exclusivity."

As I have noted for some time, I think VZ will possibly explode with their release of the iPhone and T will suffer greatly. This will possibly help AAPL as well. I have a friend that likes the idea so much he's bought a VZ franchise north of ATL. The T network .... sucks for reception if you are not in a large city. As they say they cover 97% of all AMERICANS not friggin AMERICA! What a load of shit that advertising program is.

SPX is on a trend of lower lows and lower highs. 1261.74 and then 1255.84 then 54.19 are key levels.

Last week the dollar rose from 79.02 to 81.63 all while SPX went from 1255 to 1271. Go figure.

I think we have set some sort of intermediate top if not possibly a very major one. We have to at least begin discussing the possibility of a major top being in the neighborhood. I've had 1283 as a target (with possible higher moves) and a late Jan early Feb time table for it.

Earnings should not be good IMO. The retail whispers last week were horrible. Who cares? Dollar up, retail in the gutter, EU imploding, pensions suing banks, the news seems to be building like that storm that came thru here last night. At least we have POMO to rise all tides. Thus the Fed's trump card remains in effect dampening any enthusiasm to get short or call a major top.

Not sure what my schedule will be today. I have to work on populating the new site this week as well for launch Monday AM. I'll leave a link to let you know where to go.

GL and GB!

Sunday, January 9, 2011

Should We Be Calling A Top, Techincally?

Well, POMO and eternal stimuli are the obvious answer why it would be ill advised to call a top. Eternal fraud, manipulation and corruption are other obvious reasons. So for your entertainment, here are a few charts that emphasize why I think we're close. I have speculated since the beginning of the blog that it would take an external event to rip the markets from the Fed's control. Till that event (since the presses are obviously not going to run out of ink) the bears have to hold on. Many, many factors will go into this topping process that are not discussed here. I'm just looking at it technically.

I'm not sure if a top is in or not. I'm not actually sure if even technicals matter anymore (we all know fundamentals are totally unreliable). You looks at the charts and draw your own conclusions. 

Chart 1 - My CPC chart

Chart 2 - Daily SPX with dovergences and the move for wave 1 from 1010 to 1129 just about equals wave 5 from 1173 to the recent top at 1278. Just a few points shy of my 1283 target

Chart 3 - Weekly SPX may not be ready yet. The last two tops occurred after a divergence in the TRIX which has not even bear crossed yet.

10 SMA intervals - I am strangely growing fond of this chart and think it will confirm a top.

Index comparison Monthly - Bloated? RUT, TRAN and COMPQ approaching '07 highs. Really? And this is deserved, why? What is so much better now than at the bloated bubble top then?

More detailed stuff to come soon. Be on the lookout for the new .com blog coming a week from Monday. Mo better for you.

GL and GB.

Friday, January 7, 2011

Morning Post, SPX, S&P 500, e-mini

Please follow me on twitter @shankysTB. Also new .com improved and expanded site coming soon!

Sorry I'm late, I've been waiting on the employment report. Minis spike down from 1272.74 to 1264.50 on the news. Minis stalling at 67.5. That 50% LT channel diagonal has held yet again. Minis have to take out 65 before we can get anywhere meaningful. Now recovered to 71 as I have typed this post.

Economic Calendar -  Please ALWAYS check the calendar.  Today has employment, The Bernank and cons credit at 3.

POMO Schedule - We'll most likely have POMO from now to infinity or till the systemic failure that is destined to come. 

Shanky's Dark Side - Where I call all the intraday action and throw out tons of charts and news posts in the comments.

Pivot Points -  For what they are worth in this busted market

The dollar is up almost $2.50 this week while the SPX is up 17 points over the same period. The EUR/USD has fallen from 1.34 to under 1.30.

The Bernank speaks at 9:30 (or 10 not sure). That could be a market mover.

Geomag storm ongoing.

On the debt ceiling, after listening to the Pauls it sounds like it will be raised. The markets will like that, and I am now considering moving my top time frame from February to this summer. That would make this assumed fall (if it should/could actually fall) only a corrective. The most disturbing thing I got from the Pauls many comments is that they will raise the debt ceiling IF they cut spending. Does that not sound like an acceleration of the wealth transfer? Maybe this is a step in the right direction, but it does not sound that way on the surface to me. I'm still digesting this thought from the shower this morning. Much more on this soon. This will drive everything this year, mainly new domestic austerity programs and further job losses as they continue to steal from us to keep the banks alive.

The POMO/Bear battle is raging. There have been a slew of very quiet downgrades this week. I think earnings season (begins in earnest Monday with AA) will disappoint for the most part for various reasons (except financials of course cause they will use REPO 105 legally or not to get their asset balances right). We all heard the retail numbers yesterday. The markets are showing some extreme divergences on the daily chart. Bullish sentiment is thru the roof. My CPC chart is at extremes. The EU is collapsing.All, not good and should accelerate.

B1Ferris asked last night, "What do you think of the weak performance on a heavy POMO day?". That is a great question. We're nearing the end of the rope, but POMO and manipulation rule. We (broken record) must follow the Fed's lead at least till their game is up. Maybe they let the market breathe here for a bit. They may not have an option if earnings are bad, the dollar continues to advance and the states (almost all facing tremendous budget shortfalls) need additional help sooner than later. I think the answer is that there is tremendous selling pressure, and that Turbo's dire statement yesterday was the tell. Give us the money or we're totally screwed is basically what he said (where have we heard that before?). How could the markets not totally collapse and flash crash on that statement is beyond me (CNBS is all over that one,,,shuh...right). That said, I think POMO may only have limited effect from here as selling pressure should grow. Upside from here should be very limited.

The markets should have put in some sort of near term top or the top (I can't commit to that, but I kind of want to). Other than POMO I see no news events (other than manipulated BLS numbers that even Gallup has issues with) that can help form here. Pressure in the EU is growing, and they are even setting standards for a bank failures at this time. This should be the year it all ends. We'll have to see when things begin to accelerate like they did in '08.

GS has released a 1500 SPX target, so we may want to take note of that number. It may be another long year for the bears. See the wedge below. The last two major tops came after a divergence of the weekly TRIX and it has not even bear crossed yet. When I first put that target box up I got a lot of grief. People thought I was nuts. We're in it now. I don't think I will have to adjust it. I still have my 1283 target and at this time am not considering raising it. Oh, and GS's 1500 target  is wrong unless we get a great a great overthrow. You tell me what is going to cause that as we fall farther and farther into the hell hole of debt?

GL and GB. Have a great weekend.

Gold quickie - It is at support.
This GOLD:USD chart has been spot on for a while. Each red line has given at least a 4 month pullback and a 20% corrective in this space. Not saying it will or wont happen. Given the potential for great fear and further deteriorating economic conditions this time may be different.

Thursday, January 6, 2011

Morning Post, SPX, S&P 500, e-mini

On The Dark Side we have been discussing the mass animal deaths, earthquakes, floods, volcanoes and the like for several days now. I am please that our friends at Zero Hedge have picked up on this trend as well and posted "The Birds": Mapping The Global Mass Animal Deaths Graveyard. "Did the Mayans forget to carry the zero?" may be a valid question. I won't go all Alex Jones on you this morning on the subject, but I will ask you to open your minds to the vast possibilities of such events. The 10 leading theories are here.

Economic Calendar -  Please ALWAYS check the calendar.  Tomorrow may be a biggie with employment, Bernank and cons credit.

POMO Schedule - We'll most likely have POMO from now to infinity or till the systemic failure that is destined to come. 

Shanky's Dark Side - Where I call all the intraday action and throw out tons of charts and news posts in the comments.

Pivot Points -  For what they are worth in this busted market

Plain and simple (well it should be) the 5 thru 60m indicators all have some nasty divergences to price. The retail sales disappointments are no surprise to me (they are to CNBS that pumped the fact that things were looking up up up all thru the holidays - please send in your recovery success stories!).Sadly we're back to the big POMO days. The Jobs number was not so hot as indicated by ADP (a number of people pointed out that ADP was not the most reliable indicator).

SPX 30m - Looks set up to sell to me. Can technicals (with some bad retail fundamentals) overrule a big POMO day?

Minis are only up a little over two right now but falling. No violent moves overnight. Just a steady climb till the fall started around 7:30 this morning. I showed my CPC chart on the big blog yesterday. That one and many others are screaming top. Most are thinking this will be THE top. I'm pretty much in that camp, but POMO has me reserving any specifics at this time (the debt ceiling discussions are the key). My cycle target chart below has been pretty accurate. Some of you may remember the green circle call on this chart from a week before the April top (possibly my best ever). Pay close attention to that next red vert line.
I have speculated that the charts are indicating that earnings season will not be so rosy. The retail numbers this morning are supporting that theory. All along I thought that 4th quarter or first quarter numbers would be the end of the line for most of the cutback/downsized earnings beats (with continued revenue misses). Don't worry about the unregulated financials. They should be fine toting their REPO 105 subsidies inflating their assets to acceptable levels.

Let's keep a cautions eye to the surprise (to me at least) downside move here. TGT and the retail sector may take a beating, but we have POMO to come to the rescue. The charts are indicating yet another divergence in an already overbought market that has unsuccessfully tried to pull back once. Maybe the bears have another push in them. Either way the retail and jobs data should weigh in the markets and provide resistance to the upside (along with that 50% minis channel diagonal I have been showing for some time).

GL and GB.

Wednesday, January 5, 2011

Morning Post, SPX, S&P 500, e-mini

Won't Get Fooled Again - classic Who. Should be the theme song for what's coming. Don't be fooled by the ADP report. Sure, you can follow the money and bullshit stimulus figures till they don't work anymore, you would be a fool not to. But don't get fooled again when this third bubble busts in yo face. Pure stimulus bitchez. That's all it is. A printing press in overdrive robbing from Peter (you) to pay Paul (the elite bansters that are robbing the middle class blind). Grow your fiat pile as high as you like, cause for every dollar you ear they are printing a thousand making your dollars worth less and less every day. Sucks doesn't it. Truth hurts. All this to save our asses? Nope, all this to save the elite that are running the show. Rockefellers man, it is all about the banks now. Not you, not me, not your kids future, not our country's future like they would have you believe. It is about their future and their success and their huge fucking piles of money. So, don't get fooled by the billions of POMO fiat bullshit pumping into this market every day supporting a market that does not represent anything other than a Ponzi system that is doomed to fail.

I'll tip my hat to the new constitution
Take a bow for the new revolution
Smile and grin at the change all around me
Pick up my guitar and play
Just like yesterday
And I'll get on my knees and pray
We don't get fooled again
Don't get fooled again

We'll ge int some Baba O'riley next week .

Lord I miss ranting - note - I will be going .com soon and am planning on getting back to my ranting roots and expanding the blog to better serve you and expand the message that all need to hear. Not to mention improving the trading and technical calls that you all come here for in the first place.

On to the markets -

On to business. Someone steadfastly remained short going into today, but also warned that after today POMO returns. When I woke up I was tickled to see the minis down 10. Then this ADP crap came out and they recover almost 9 points. America is still functioning, but remember how and why. Without stimulus and TARP we would have done away with the TBTF's, would have been thru the severe deflation and coming out the backside of the debt crisis. Instead we're living in a stimulus bubble that will eventually burst when we run out of money or ink (whichever comes first).

I'm still thinking blow off top here, but can't dispute earnings coming Monday and POMO is alive and well which could screw up a great short set up. If the wedge formations all over the place are correct then we've topped or are nearing one. As speculated, the charts may be leaning to calling a earnings disappointment that POMO can't control to a point. I was willing to commit thru today, but POMO returns tomorrow.

The ADP report may indicate some sort of surprise Friday. So shortie needs to be on the look out. That upper daily BB is in the way right now and the BB is narrowing indicating volatility is a commin. Which way? A significant push higher here looks technically improbable given the ramp and overbought conditions, but we must remember the Fed via POMO and manipulation are in TOTAL control.

The flurry of improbable ramps we have seen over the past year are to serve as a reminder of the possibilities to come under the current regime. The minis are pulling back again hurting the 30m candle formation coming into the open. Let's be patient and let the market show it's hand this AM. I'm still leaning down on this smaller POMO day. I think that minis 50% channel diagonal off the 667 lows is significant resistance.

I have been calling the (the way I measure it) 1283 5=1 target for some time. It is not definitive cause of POMO and the never ending Ponzi, so the improbable can continue. I'll bring my CPC chart out this AM cause it has been fairly reliable at calling tops. I want to call one here (it may actually be set), but I can't and you know why. Even with the wedges ending, yield curve flattening et al. I do think we're close. I have been speculating that we'd top in February. Problem with that is we need an exogneous/external event that will rip control from the Fed. Will that event be the Debt Ceiling? A war? I have no idea, but that SOB better come soon.

On a side note: Did everyone vote this morning for me on Stockcharts? Whoops, you couldn't cause I'm now Hall of Fame author on SC. Nice! Thanks to all of you for your continued support. I know it was a pain to have to remember and go vote each day and sincerely thank you for your efforts. I'll do my best to remain worthy (or even get better). Very humbling to have started all this blogging and stuff less than 2 years ago and to be having the support and success I am. Thank you very much.

GL and GB.

Tuesday, January 4, 2011

Morning Post, SPX, S&P 500, e-mini

Factory orders at 10:00 and FOMC minutes at 2:00 are the only things to look out for today. Markets up chasing Asian success overnight. Small POMO today and tomorrow then they ramp it back up Thursday and Friday.

Did a bunch of charting last night while watching the Cardinal throw down on the ACC Hokie. (Congratulations, enjoy it while it lasts cause Luck and Harbaugh will be gone in a flash.) All I found was wedge after wedge that appear to be overthrowing with divergences getting blown out (Q's here, INDU here, WLSH here and RUT here). Possibly the Q's will lead us south. It has all the characteristics of a blow off top. I think we're in a head of a larger HnS that appears to be worth about 90 points at this time which if topped here would target near 1090. That would be the best bear scenario of course.

Since there is this thing called the Fed controlling and manipulating the markets using POMO to pump shares to bubblish valuations you can't rely on traditional technical analysis as a guide post. What were waiting on is for the Fed to begin to pull liquidity. Just like the April top when the Fed experienced pulling the IV, the markets will plummet. The math at this time from the HnS is pretty close to the 220 point fall we had after April. You lose POMO and you lose the markets. We may have to wait for QEII to end and listen for the rhetoric about QEIII to get our clues.

The VIX (still busted) is diverging from SPX right now as it has set a higher low while the SPX continues to set higher highs. CPC is primed and ready. We just have to wait and be patient. right now the markets appear to be signaling that earnings season will disappoint. How could they not with where commodity prices higher than hell and a dead consumer in a country that is loosing 400k jobs per week with 43 MILLION on food stamps toating a debt load that the Fed can't even print off (I'll stop there and not mention the 1,000 other issues). 

USB (30yr) is putting on the ultimate bear cross right now with the 50dma crossing the 200dma. The TNX has a bit more to run if technicals hold. FTSE has led the SPX in the last few major moves south and is falling again. A flattening yield curve will indicate a turn in the markets. that can not be ignored.

Oil is continuing it's ramp which is not good for the economy and the higher commod prices across the board will hit the markets hard sooner than later (I'll work in those charts today and UNG, gold and silver as well).

SPX Daily Indicator chart puts it all in one place. Looks like there is a bit of time left for the markets to run. Maybe we get a slight corrective as this wedge plays out and then a last churn to the 1283 level in February. My call from the 1140 lows has been spot on. Ramp to the QEII announcement, euphoric pop on the announcement, then drop then ramp to Christmas. Could not have been any better. That was the easy one. Now it gets tough as seasonality ends and the Fed's game takes away traditional tools used for predicting market actions. My only suggestion is to follow the fed's lead. At this time I have been speculating for some time February would be the month for the turn. I may need some help getting that call. Till then I can't get any more specific. Will wait for QEIII rhetoric to come, that will be very important.

Note - all the links are cause blogger will not let me post charts this morning.

Minis - LT channel off 667 lows. Price nearing the 50% diagonal that formerly (to April top) acted as support and since has been resistance. 

GL and GB.

Monday, January 3, 2011

Morning Post, SPX, S&P 500, e-mini

Minis have recovered 14 points off Friday's lows and have returned to that LT 50% diagonal I have been showing for some time now. Massive divergence on the MACD that is  flattening on a 4hr chart none the less.

This SPX 30m chart will show a possible triangle breakout after the open this morning. 1266 would be the target.
This daily SPX chart says that any run up from here should be short lived.
The dollar is simply consolidating at this point. 

SPX priced in gold or silver shows where it should be headed eventually.

Heavy POMO day today then two light days and Thurs and Fri will be heavy again. Earnings season kicks off on the 10th with AA. This will be a major market driver in either direction as speculation and fraud persevere. More speculation from me on this as earnings gets closer. After updating some of the charts last night, all I can say is that markets are severely overbought. We've seen improbable runs from these levels before and must anticipate them again as the Fed and POMO are in control.

Economic Calendar -  Please ALWAYS check the calendar. 

POMO Schedule - We'll most likely have POMO from now to infinity or till the systemic failure that is destined to come. 

Shanky's Dark Side - Where I call all the intraday action and throw out tons of charts.

Pivot Points -  For what they are worth in this busted market

Counts are all over the place. I can not discount those that have this counting as a finished major. I and not discount those that see the markets moving higher either and speculate they are more than likely correct. You have to roll with the Fed. It is that simple. Let's keep an eye out for a market that struggles to really move up from here.

GL and GB.