Friday, July 31, 2009

Weekend Video Pleasure with Some Pics As Well

This oldie but goodie that you have most likely seen, but it is always worth a second look. If you have not seen it, I hope you enjoy it. This is real media, not that staged crap you see every day. This is IMO typical of the voting base that put our lovely administration in office. I also added the South Park "and it's gone" vid in the column on the right. I'll be updating charts on the "old" computer this weekend. Stockcharts help rant is overdue and so are some other rants. Good chance a top is in, but I'm not promising anything yet. Like I say, I'd much rather get it right and miss the top.

Have a great weekend!

Leprechaun in Mobile, Al

Border Control

Think about it -

I thought this was funny -

Thursday, July 30, 2009

A Few More Charts To Digest - We're Getting Closer

Weekly indicators that I wanted to set divergences for the next fall have done worse and are now beginning to embed (with the dailys). Needless to say I expected this run up, but I wanted it after a deeper pullback that I did not get. This exuberance can not last forever (well, it can last as long as the HFT's and the BHO's want it to actually - they have all the money in the world to play with and whether you or I participate is a non factor these days IMO)

So the next hurdle IMO will be the trendlines on the monthly indicators. I'm really watching the RSI and Slow Sto trendlines and the MACD histogram. The severely declining buy volume is a great indicator that this rally is on its last legs.

SPXA50 is above 400 again (what a freaking joke that is). The PE ratios are not realistic. You should realize that the monthly Sto indicators are going to have to embed here and whipsaw after bull crosses. MACD will need a whipsaw as well. TRIX has a way to go to cross, but it lags the market IMO. The market has made it thru EOM painting.

I'm still guessing we top in October in a range from 1050 to 1121 at either a 38% or 50% retracement from the big fall where they intersect with the top market line. Two green target lines shown. I'm in the ABC corrective camp and this is possibly the beginning of 3.C.2 with 868 having possibly been the bottom of B (again I wanted a deeper move for B, but might not get it). That was a pretty impulsive move this AM disregarding employment and treasury sales (who give a shit?).

Link to chart in Stockcharts for better viewing.

I would also like for you to look at a yearly chart. I have shown it before and got poo pooed for it. Not so funny now is it? It is bullish as hell. The indicators there have bottomed and will need to turn and embed for significant downside move - So you are fighting monthly rising and yearly at the bottom rising and daily and weekly at the top. This kind of supports my theory for the need for an "external influence" to get the market to go where us permabears want it to.

Another Breakout? (A Mini Rant)

This summary is not available. Please click here to view the post.

Tuesday, July 28, 2009

Rising Wedges Everywhere!

First let me get two things out of the way. 1) I crossed the 100k view plateau. I want to thank you all. The success to date is beyond my wildest dreams. 2) I apologize for excessive time off and the issues I have had with Stockcharts not working with vista. Thanks for the many emails offering assistance. 3) No rants lately cause two great vacations have me tempered, but they are coming. Complacency is not a good thing. I even found myself getting sucked into the green shoot vortex briefly this weekend. Don't believe the hype.

Rising Wedges Everywhere!

Lots of charts here, but the common themes are the indicators on a DAILY basis are very overbought and all have formed massive rising wedges which historically if read right are bearish signs. All of the indexes made it to this point in different ways, but the formations all wound up being the same. It was only natural for anyone to have anticipated this formation for the correction. It took a while to truly show its self, but they are here now.

BUT - These are not "THE" wedges we are looking for to create P3 (I think as proposed in the State Of The Charts posts). The top trendline is in place IMO, but the lower trendline will reset. On this next pullback. I do have a scenario with the lower trendline set and the old B-D line from the triangle that formed Oct - Feb could be the real top trendline, but it is just too far above for me to make that call. Market would really have to pop up here. Where the indicators are now and the ABC corrective I am following, don;t allow for that pop here.

If the wedges are an A-E formation, they are all coming up for the E touch now. In this most recent rally decreasing acceleration is being experienced. The dailys as mentioned are overbought and, as I anticipated, the weeklys are setting negative divergences. I did not get the anticipated pullback to 847 before the recent run up, but I'll take 868. Not that bad a miss in the big picture and a pretty darn good call for further strength that all my permabear buddies could not believe.

Now, how will my target of 1050 work? First let me let you know I am now leaning again on my original 1121 target (GS will of course over shoot their own estimate IMO LOL). How do we get there? We reset the lower trendline on this pullback when we get the gap at 910 filled and then complete a final 5 wave move to the top for C. We may be completing wave 1 here, setting up this pullback for 2 and wave three completes the backtest of this lower trendline. Wave 5 will either be a massive pop off euphoric top or truncate. The ABC corrective targets are more defined now and they are right in line with the total retracement fibs of the big fall at 1121 to 1228. They almost measure perfectly. See my chart in State Of The Charts Post for a visual.

GL trading.

Friday, July 24, 2009

Weekend Video Pleasure With MIT Brainiacs

Enough of the vids featuring deceased people. Try this one on for size. A genius team at MIT takes us one step closer to living in Minority Report by creating a finger-controlled phone/3-D projector. This is cool as shit and a must watch. For more info go to

Have a great weekend! I'm at the beach and will be back Tuesday, but may post something from the sunny shores of the panhandle.

GL trading!

EMBED-Really Cool, New Sixth-Sense Technology - Watch more free videos

Wednesday, July 22, 2009

UNG Time!

Three charts; 60m, Daily and Weekly with articles and commentary from yours truly.

The links to each chart are above in the time frames.

Let's start with the additional share issue from Seeking Alpha today - Natural Gas ETF Awaits New Shares as Prices Fall. If you just think UNG is a normal ETF, you need to read this. "The $4.6 billion fund made 300 million new shares available May 6, which grew to 347.4 million shares, and ran out on July 7. The Securities and Exchange Commission is deciding whether to approve 1 billion extra shares." That is ONE Billion extra shares with a B.

What are some of the issues facing UNG and natural gas. From the same article, "Stockpiles of the fuel increased 90 billion cubic feet in the week ending on July 10, hitting 2,889 trillion cubic feet, a 15 year high. Demand by factories, steel mills and chemical plants, which make up 29% of U.S. demand, dropped 13% in 2009’s first 4 months year-over-year."

Further issues are discussed in Econbrowser's article Natural gas and oil prices. "Natural gas prices have been pummeled by over-supply and weak demand, cutting the national drill rig count in half in the past year. Meanwhile, monstrous initial production rates in non-traditional shale plays have added to price pressure, as producers fight to hold the terms of their expensive leases in boomtowns....Now, British Columbia's Horn River Basin might be added to the list, with the help of behemoth ExxonMobil (XOM) reportedly coming up with initial rates on early test wells to the tune of 16- to 18-million cubic feet a day.... That is double the rate of a really good well and in line with the Haynesville, in Louisiana, which may hold some 250 trillion cubic feet of recoverable national gas, enough to satisfy domestic demand for a decade."

Want to know what drives the price action in UNG? Contango! "Rolling hurts performance when the current contract is worth less than the next month, known as contango. The natural gas market has been in contango 94 percent of the time since the fund started in April 2007, compared with 78 percent since April 1990. Contango doesn’t matter as much when prices rise. Gas cost $7.50 when the fund debuted and increased 81 percent to a 2 1/2- year peak of $13.58 on July 3, 2008. The fund gained 25 percent during that time, besting the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index, which fell 14 percent."

Bloomberg has Natural Gas ETF Down More Than Fuel as Fund Sells Out (Update2) where you learn, "“The amount of interest in this fund is a surprise given the trend in gas is down and not looking to change any time soon,” said Tom Orr, the director of research for Weeden & Co. LP, a Greenwich, Connecticut, securities brokerage, in a telephone interview. He predicted natural gas, this year’s worst performing major commodity, will fall below $3 per million British thermal units next month, from $3.689 today, and rise to $4 in the fourth quarter."

I did not discuss the relationship between the price of oil and nat gas (it is covered in detail in the Econobrowser article). You should read it. Bottom line is the relationship ratio is not at historical norms that will require the prices to become closer in relation to each other. Given my Oil Up Or Down post below, I believe the price of oil falling will take care of the majority of this correction much more than nat gas rising.

So all of you who think UNG is a bargain and do not understand what is happening behind the ETF should be pretty surprised right now. The price is in contango now. This means there is no fundamental reason for the ETF to be rising other than speculation. There is no demand. Rigs are shut down. There is a serious supply glut. Shall I continue? Why is there demand for a Billion new shares? I can't tell you. Maybe it has something to do with Cap and Trade and the fact that nat gas is more environmentally friendly and cheaper than oil.

Lets get to the chart - I chose the 60m because it gives the best near term picture of what is going on. There was a nice triangle that has developed into a falling wedge. I do believe this is part of the bottoming process. I am going to stick with my thoughts that UNG is forming an MA pattern as mentioned before in previous UNG posts. The rising wedge in red should generate a bull flag and alter the shape of the rist to another wedge that will lead to the end of the rise.

I had previously (now deleted) had the triangle breaking down to 9.50 (width of the trianle from the breakdown point). I am not ruling out the possibility of a backtest of the triangle BD line and then a move lower. I missed the small H&S formation at the bottom and was way to bearish on UNG. The indicators turned on me unexpectedly and I missed it. This is why I am laying out all the scenarios I can see.

The annotations are in the chart. Based on the indicators I expect near term trend to continue. The 60m indicators are topping out and setting nice negative divergences. They will embed as the dailys are still in bull mode. The weeklys look strong as well. Actually UNG is set up a lot like SPX had been about a week ago. Look for the dailys to top out and set nice divergences on the weeklys for the nexy fall to what I think will be a lower low.

If UNG takes out the upper wedge line I would be surprised given the fibs, triangle apex, resistance and trendlines. Then again, greed and speculation might allow it to grow to a double top near 16.25, but I do not see it. I do expect another touch of the lower blue trendline for a possible ultimate bottom, but given my beliefs in the prospect for a continued depression (is is no longer a recession IMO) then demand for nat gas should remain low and supplies high. Not a great environment for growth. Oh, and I would think hard about dilution if a Billion additional shares are released, that might effect price just a little bit.

I hope this helps. GL trading.

Edward Jones Discontinues Sale of Leveraged ETFs

I don't like this one at all. Seeking Alpha - Edward Jones Discontinues Sale of Leveraged ETFs.

"Edward Jones’ decision to drop the product line comes as calls for regulation of leveraged ETFs are reaching a fever pitch. In recent months, a number of industry analysts (including Scott Burns of Morningstar) have called for increased oversight, joining individual investors frustrated by the returns generated by these funds over extended holding periods (due to compounding of returns and daily resets, leveraged ETFs can vary in magnitude and even direction from the amplified return on the underlying index if held for multiple trading sessions)."

No kidding? You mean you should not hold these over a period of several days? We'll I would have hoped after two years of trading these things a VAST majority of investors would have come to that conclusion. So I guess if you were and active trader at EJ you are out of business. That would piss me off enough to haul ass. I get compliance - lord knows we all better get it - and their efforts to protect a client, but to limit what one can and can not purchase in the equity market while using a financial professional as a guide? That is not right.

Oh, and the people from Morningstar, LMAO. They pump shit just as bad as the next guy IMO. They have sales numbers to make as well. Who can you trust these days? Want to explain why 3* funds OUTPERFORM 5* funds? Why doesn't someone address that slight shortcoming in their models. Maybe EJ should disallow sales based on M* data while they are at it? Whats next, you can only take Cramer's advice?

GL trading.

Oil Up Or Oil Down?

Looking at the chart of light sweet crude today. We have two options.

1) Up scenario - are we in a 5 wave corrective move up? The count looks good and places the target price in the yellow box between 76 and 86. A price of 78 completes a 38% retracement of the whole fall from 147. The indicators seem to favor further strength. RSI is taking out a trendline and moving thru 50, MACD appears to be getting a bull cross on and S Sto is headed up. All have plenty of room to run.

2) Down scenario - completed a near perfectly measured ABC corrective move stopping just short of a 38% retracement. Crossed under the 30 and 45 ma's that have tracked the price so well thru this chart. Look at the 147 top and see what happened the last time these two ma's crossed. Well, $WTIC is trading under these two ma's and they appear to be headed for the bear cross. After $WTIC broke the lower channel line, it has come back like a champ for the backtest of the trendline and should meet resistance from the 30 and 45 ma's.

Two pretty good cases I'd say. Stuck in the middle I'd say. Hard to lean on any further strength given global demand and over supply. Hard to go against prices continuing to climb given the price demands from foreign countries relying desperately on higher priced oil (that was a nice way of avoiding price manipulation discussion but still including it).

The indicators do not favor a further move south, so I am going for option 1 with oil shooting for the target box. Then it can crash cause the price per barrel is total bullshit anyway. Back on July 8th I did a post $20 Per Barrel Of Oil?. I suggest you review this wonderfully article laden post on oil price manipulation. Folks, we're talking more than the price of a commodity here. Governments live and die on the price of this stuff and it effects your cash as well.

I have two preferred quotes from that spectacular blog post. From the WSJ article, " "In Washington, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, the main U.S. futures-market regulator, said it is considering tougher regulation of oil-futures markets. The proposed rules, which drew immediate criticism from traders, would seek to curb the influence of speculative investors such as hedge funds and investment banks by limiting how much money any single trader can bet on any one commodity at a time." OK, for those that there really is not any price manipulation going on, they are just trading the shit out of it and where the chips fall they fall - LOL - Bullshit I say.

And the best was from Naked Cap with Verlerger on Oil Glut: "There has never been anything like it". "For eight straight months, oil supplies have been running about 2 million barrels a day higher than the global demand of 83 million barrels a day, Verleger said. Eventually, he and others predicted, suppliers will tire of paying to store all of the surplus oil and flood the market. "That is the largest and longest continuous glut of supply that I have seen in 30 years of following energy prices," Verleger said. "It's a huge surplus. There has never been anything like it."
Anyone care to do the math on that?

So we go up then down or just straight down? You tell me. You know I am in the if you can't beat 'em join 'em camp. (I'm really gonna follow the indicators north till they turn then I will get short unless further weakness happens here - look for the target box)

Thanks for the views and GL trading.

Ron Paul Tells It Like It Is

TD at ZH got it posted first so you may have seen it. Kinda makes you wonder where we'd be if he had been elected? Live and learn I guess. RP is the man.

Tuesday, July 21, 2009

We Better Turn Soon - Or Else Something Is Really Wrong

NO! I am not showing that it is OVER, but to those that have been comparing "this bottom to that bottom" blah, blah, blah sure looks like you can make a great case that the bottom is in looking at the monthly chart.

Point of this is with the dailys and 60m topping out and the weeklys beginning to roll over, then the trendlines on the monthly indicators just may hold. It is gonna take some serious whipsaws in some of these indicators to make the turn in time. The VIX falling wedge ending pattern would confirm the turnaround suspicions as well.

(Disclosure - GS and the manipulators will take the market wherever they want to and TA nor EWT nor fundamentals works anymore so all this might not mean jack. Also - my target for "option 1" call looks like total crap on this chart. Not giving up on it yet. Note GS came out with a target of 1060 today for SPX - Uh, Shanky has been at 1050 for quite some time now as his target. First MW copying my shit and now GS? This is a great compliment and to have "THE" market manipulator agree with my target is quite the compliment - especially when I was over a month ahead of their call.)

For those asking for a UNG update, I have updated charts, but have not come to any definitive conclusions. I did find this interesting article on nat gas and oil prices. I'll post on UNG soon.

Still digesting comments on the new look. I'm not all that stoked about it either. Might change again soon. I mainly want something wider than the old format. If anyone would like to send me a suggestion it would be appreciated - email in top right.

Still struggling with SC support to get the new computer to allow me to annotate charts, so my time to update charts has become severely limited. I'm not happy. Sorry.

Thanks for the views and comments. GL trading!

Chart Link For better Viewing

Chart Link For better Viewing

Monday, July 20, 2009

What Caught My Eye Today?

First a market note - the daily indicators are still not ready to turn. Sooner than later they will hmmm.... Turn yes. They will. Hehehehehe (Yoda speak). Be patient. The weeklys are hopefully setting the divergences I was looking for with this run up. The manipulators are still on their horses. This next article could have some sway tomorrow. I will be listening to the hearing. It should be a good one. Wonder if CNBS will even acknowledge it? Barofsky who?

The Hill - IG: Treasury 'failed' to adopt bailout safeguards most of you have heard about by now. My favorite part is "Meanwhile, Barofsky's office has opened 35 criminal and civil investigations into issues including suspected accounting fraud, securities fraud, insider trading, mortgage servicer misconduct, mortgage fraud, public corruption, false statements and taxes." I say what the fuck have you been doing since you were put on the job? You can only come up with 35? Well, I guess that is far better than the SEC has done over the past DECADE.

Back that one up with - Banks Fail to Make Adequate Loan-Loss Provisions, Moody’s Says. "U.S. banks may incur about $470 billion of losses and writedowns by the end of 2010, which may cause the banks to be unprofitable in the period, the ratings company said in a report published today." No shit. You gotta be kidding me? My favorite part was, “Large loan losses have yet to be recognized in the banking system,”. We're so screwed.

Credit Writedowns - Rosenberg: Still a bear market rally "Real bear markets never ever end with price-to-book, price-to-earnings, dividend yields, real corporate bond yields or sentiment readings at the level they have been for most of this year." Thank goodness he got out of ML while he could.

Calculated Risk - Roubini: Slow Recovery, Double Dip Recession Possible. You have most likely seen this one as well. Looks like "they" got to NR after MW". Picking off the truth tellers one by one. Guess Denninger is next?

ZeroHedge has a new Martin Armstrong piece - Martin Armstrong's Latest On "Real Dark Pools". Go directly to the last page for the dark pool info. This was not as conspiratory as his last, but is still a good read as he basically outlines why GS is untouchable.

Ameritrade settles securities case for $456M but Schwab objects? Guess Schwab considers its self as the GS of discount brokers and really does not give a shit about its clients right or wrong (we'll mostly wrong IMO). This is balsy as hell as Chuck basically says FU to his clients in my opinion. Wouldn't you love to see that on a commercial? This is Chuck. If you bought auction-rate securities from us it is your fing problem. We don't give a shit. Open a new account today and get 1,000 free trades! Cuomo is gonna fry his ass in lard and feed it to the hoard of clients that got ripped off. Note to Chuck - you are not GS.

One you may have missed from Naked Capitalism and Pension Pulse - Guest Post: PBGC Takes Over Nortel's Pension Plan. I think pensions are in on the game fighting for their lives (and brokers for revenues). Underfunded? Ha, you tell me? This may be one of those first dominoes to fall stories IMO.

Another off the beaten path - Drug companies to reap swine-flu billions. "Analysts expect to see a significant boost in sales from GlaxoSmithKline, Roche and Sanofi-Aventis when they report first-half earnings lifted by government contracts for flu vaccines and antiviral medicines." If I can get Stockcharts support off of their ass and assist me in getting my new computer working with SC maybe I'll get some gd charts updates for this group.

Huffington post turning on their own party? Smoking the Green Shoots. Nothing new and exciting in the article (like most of the stuff on HP). Don't click on it! I just posted this out of sheer disbelief that they would say anything negative about the current administration. Wonder if the reporter still has a job.

PETITION FOR PUBLIC RELEASE OF BARACK HUSSEIN OBAMA'S BIRTH CERTIFICATE in case you are interested in stuff like this. It is rumored that one of the first acts of his presidency was to protect such private information. IMO, if he had one, he would have shown it. Maybe it is on a teleprompter?

If you care about transparency - Fed Independence or Fed Secrecy? is from Rep. Ron Paul. A quickie on HR 1207. You should take a peek.

Oh, and California is still paying with IOU's and mandating furloughs. What a great country! Up, up, up the market goes!

GL trading.

Sunday, July 19, 2009

My Call - P3 The Update

Thursday June 18th I did my State Of The Charts Post where I gave it my best shot at predicting what I thought P2 would look like and how it might play out with three scenarios. So far I look pretty fucking smart, but I'm not counting my chickens just yet. I got my doube top (or at least close) to set some divergences. Now can I get the fall to 847 for what I think is the B in this ABC corrective of the great fall from the top in '07. This move up must have a deeper retrace (at least 38%) IMO before moving higher.

Below is an updated chart where I appear to be on track as far as form (and pretty close on time - pure luck). I have not changed anything in the chart except for narrowing a few lines in the period that has occurred, deleting a few annotations (sc is lacking there in what it allows) in the indicators and adding two vertical target lines for my Option 1 scenario. The previous chart from the last post is there for prosperity as is this one. Look, I'm not Csaey or Nostradamus. I called the last month or so pretty darn good in the face of all the permabears telling me I was fing nuts, so I get to keep going.

The permabears won't like the near term call for the end of this year, but that is how I still see it. Manipulation and earnings surprises galore will lead us to higher highs before lower lows IMHO. Now is the time for the fall to 847. Sometime soon I think we plummet but this will not be "the" fall.

One main source for power for the bulls will be "earnings comparisons". Remember the fall and the earnings comparisons over the first year were sensational. Now the comprables are "post crash". They are going to be comparing shit vs. shit from now on with the analysts from GS and the other banks giving it their best shot at making their buy calls and other fantasies come true. Ya think CNBS will have a field day forgetting about any '07 numbers and touting the BS vs. BS numbers.

The three options still exist. We turn soon, but IMO this is not the fall. If I am wrong, option two is still out there. P3 is coming when is the only question. The only way we'll know is the form of the fall. Don't get me wrong, we're gonna crash, just not yet.

Look, it is a balsy upopular call with the crowd I run with. I hope they are right and we get this bullshit over with sooner than later. It is just how I see it playing out.

I'm still struggling with the new computer, java and stockcharts. Obviously I am screwing around with the layout. Thanks for the emails and feedback. Just trying to make things better.

Thanks for the feedback and visting. GL trading.

StockCharts Is Screwing Me Up And A New Look

Sorry for the lack of charts or updated charts for that matter. I may do a post with old data. I want to post something new, but since the dog ate the computer I can't get in to annotate charts and change them. SC help is not all that and a bag of chips. I'm really happy about that.

What do you think about the new look?

OK - muted response to the new look, but mostly positive. I'll keep searching. At least it is bigger. Thanks for the feedback.

Friday, July 17, 2009

Weekend Video Pleasure With JFK's "The President And The Press" Speech

Listen to the chilling correlations to today's issues and how some of his views and opinions have become reality. I did my best to find the full version of the speech and one that is not chopped up conspiracy crap. I decided against adding any "emphasis" to the speech. I suggest you read and listen at the same time. Please listen to this message. Have a great weekend.

You can find the full speech in print here.

Thursday, July 16, 2009

Ever Had A Puppy Eat Your Keyboard?

guessing where keys are to type - wife got the two new computers she wanted anyway this afternoon - no post tonight while i set up two new machines - just doing our part to support the economy - got two new hps cause i suspect that dell may be out of business in a year or so - when i get new machine up and running i may expand on this great find - little bastard is gonna be shitting out keys for weeks wonder what that is gonna cost me - Spencer the 12 week old son of Winston my cavalier king charles spaniel is proving to be a little more than we bargained for

gl trading

Max Keiser - "GS Are Scum"

A classic must watch IMO - Obama is a pussy cat compared to Paulson in terms of damage to the USA. You go Max! Enjoy!

Wednesday, July 15, 2009

China Sentences Ex-Sionpec Chairman To Death?

If our teleprompter reliant possibly Kenyan president really wanted to curb illegal activity he could at least look into this as a possible solution. Nope, we have health care and cap and trade agendas to get passed, much more important things than dealing with the current depression. Possibly our new Supreme Court Justice will have a more active role in this type of stuff (ROF LMAO). One thing is for sure, we would not be in this mess right now if this threat existed. Imagine if the banksters or the fed had this threat hanging over their heads. No way 90% of this mess happens.

I think there should be some sort of prosecution for the actions that lead to this miserable mess we are in, but no way. The SEC nor any other regulatory agency has the balls or the political power to take down or even challenge the facilitators of this horrendous situation. Starting with the Clinton administration to now, try them all especially Greenspan. It is possible that by the end of this (years from now) someone will be hung out to dry, but not till the public gets really pissed off and forces the insiders to turn on one of their own. The true pain has not even started and won't end till out grandchildren have finished paying our debts.

Get a load of this from the Times Online - Ex-Sinopec boss wins reprieve from death row
has the whole story. "China has sentenced to death a former chairman of top oil refiner Sinopec Corp, but the court gave him a two-year reprieve despite the seriousness of his crime in accepting millions of pounds in bribes."

China Sentences Oil Exec To Death from Clutterstock.

Sniffing P3? CIT Goes Down, Mish Has A Topping Prediction And GOOG May Disapoint?

Wow, did not expect them to let CIT die (I may rant on that one later). GOOG may disappoint and Mish has another updated rally has ended or is ending post. Calc Risk has the most recent post on CIT and Prag Cap has a interesting post on another market collapse.

Mish - S&P 500 Rally Poised to End; Buy and Hold Still Bad Advice "Stock languishing for years is actually my "good scenario". My "bad scenario" is the bottom is not in. Thus I align myself with DeGraaf who says "the risk is to the downside”. At this juncture, I am quite comfortable holding similar views as DeGraaf."

Mish also gives and EWT update - well, not much of one - it is at the bottom of the last article. If you want a real EWT update go visit Kenny or Daneric.

UPDATE: Calc risk with -CIT: Government Support Unlikely with lots of updated CIT info and press release.

Zero Hedge reports in Game Over CIT "Finally one not too big to fail (not surprisingly, the one who services Main Street). How many billion in CDS was Goldman long CIT? Due to the lack of a 80% unionized workforce, Obama will not hold a press conference on how Steve Rattner will get the company out of chapter in 30-45 days."

Bloomberg Surveillance this am had a great interview about CIT this am if you care to listen. Orenbuch Says CIT Has 1% of Commercial Lending Market.

Ya think someone knew CIT was going down? The VIX was up today. TD comes to the rescue again in Stop Trading. "“That is remarkable,” Randy Frederick, head of trading and derivatives at Charles Schwab in Austin, Texas, said of the tandem move by the S&P 500 and VIX today. “The VIX is expecting something here, either a pull back this afternoon or tomorrow.”"
Yeah, they were expecting jobs or a CIT failure.


So is GOOG gonna miss tomorrow? Try this earnings cheat sheet from TechCrunch - Cheat Sheet For GOOG’s Second Quarter Earnings Later This Week. "Mahaney is somewhat bearish compared to the consensus view, perhaps because of the continued economic difficulties and the deep funk the advertising industry is in. He expects revenues to increase only 2 percent on an annual basis, and to decline 3 percent on a quarterly basis. (Last quarter was the first time Google ever reported a sequential drop in revenues)."

The dollar broke down thru a triangle pattern today and TBT went nuts to the upside (and of course UNG tumbled). Ya think some market manipulation was occurring ahead of the CIT announcement?

Sounds like tomorrow will be an interesting day.

GL trading.

Mish on Alex Jones

What is this world coming to? Mish, one of the heroes of this great debacle man of trusted opinion and sound reasoning, is appearing one the world's greatest conspiracy fanatic's (Alex Jones) radio show? Something ain't right here.

Maybe the "something ain't right" part is just why he is there. We all know Mish. The guy is on my "sights must visit daily list". One of the few deliverers of the truth. I have two opinions on Mish's appearance on AJ's show 1) he's just trying to build viewers (which I highly doubt, but he does plug his site a couple of times) or 2) he's really scared about what the hell is going on and wants to spread the word. I think option 2 is it. We're really screwed and he's doing his part to get the word out to the audience that gets it (exponentially).

Part one -

Part two -

Tuesday, July 14, 2009

Is The /ES Channel Toast?

This post could have been another "case for either way" like I did a few weeks ago. The indicators, ma's, trendlines all are in precarious positions and the /ES has closed above the top channel line for the first time.

My readers are familiar with the following charts. For the first time we have had a closing bar above the major /ES channel down. We have had tails thru the line but not a closing above it. Each touch has eventually lead to a rejection and further move south. I'm unfortunately leaning on a further move up. This is based more on intuition and an educated guess of which way the indicators will move.

Is this the lower right shoulder of the inverted H&S formation playing out or is it a breakdown at the upper channel line? To add to the confusion the 60m indicators are topping out, the dailys are bottoming out and the weeklys are in the middle halfway south. SPX in the am will have completed a 61.8% retracement of the move from 956 to 888. Pick your poison. (links to my weekly and daily indicator charts are a the bottom of this post)

Last Thursday I called for a move to 907. We'll be there in the AM. I am really not ready to call for a move much higher than that. I am a believer in earnings manipulation and the earnings trough. We know the major banks (see GS record profits) will do well and possibly lead. INTC surprised. CNBS will hand pick the rest of the earnings to report and twist the way only they can. On the other hand I may have had too much of the manipulation kool aide and may miss read this next fall all together.

I'm really leaning that we're getting ready to finish P2 up here and have another quarter or two to deal with more unrealistic upside action. This pains me. I was hoping to make it down to 847 before the correction higher (and still may get it).

S135 your channel may be going down brother (but then again it might not).



Shanky's Daily Indicator Chart

Shanky's Weekly Indicator Chart

Let Me Ease Your Pain

Ha! This is great! Apparently cussing is some sort of magical elixir that helps to ease your pain. Super hat tip to Mirac at Kenny's Blog. See, there is a method to my madness. I am a firm believer in this study.

Reuters has Swearing can make you feel better, lessen pain. I'll post the whole article here,

"LONDON (Reuters Life!) - Cut your finger? Hurt your leg? Start swearing. It might lessen the pain.

Researchers from the school of psychology at Britain's Keele University have found swearing can make you feel better as it can have a "pain-lessening effect," according to a study published in the journal NeuroReport.

Colleagues Richard Stephens, John Atkins and Andrew Kingston, set out to establish if there was any link between swearing and physical pain.

"Swearing has been around for centuries and is an almost universal human linguistic phenomenon," says Stephens.

"It taps into emotional brain centers and appears to arise in the right brain, whereas most language production occurs in the left cerebral hemisphere of the brain. Our research shows one potential reason why swearing developed and why it persists."

Their study involved 64 volunteers who were each asked to put their hand in a tub of ice water for as long as possible while repeating a swear word of their choice.

They then repeated the experiment using a more commonplace word that they would use to describe a table.

The researchers found the volunteers were able to keep their hands in the ice water for a longer when swearing, establishing a link between swearing and an increase in pain tolerance.

Stephens said it was not clear how or why this link existed but it could be because swearing may increase aggression.

"What is clear is that swearing triggers not only an emotional response, but a physical one too, which may explain why the centuries-old practice of cursing developed and still persists today," he said.

(Writing by Belinda Goldsmith, Editing by Miral Fahmy)"

So dear readers, please vent away in the comments section. Let 'er rip. Get it all off of your chest. Take this one time shot at free therapy and walk away feeling like a new man or woman. Screw the blog guidelines this one time. Fuck it!

I would like to promote or do a post with the best of the best comments so make 'em good.

Option ARM And A Leg - P3 Anyone?

ARMs and the CRE destruction that has been largely ignored by the media are the straws that will break the camel's back. Here are two good articles that will help you understand the dire times we are in.

Denninger - Banks: Here Come The OptionARM Blowups! Karl's been pounding the table on the mortgage issues and we all know he is right. Just how crooked and stupid our elected officials are is amazing. ...."Generational buy on banks eh, when their entire "valuation" is predicated on balance sheets where one can't possibly assign an honest value to huge parts of their loan portfolio? I think not, and I've been pounding the table on this since The Market Ticker began - literally, from the first posting. SHUT THEM ALL DOWN."

Calculated Risk has Report: Option ARMs Performing Worse than Subprime. "For the third straight month, option adjustable-rate mortgages are generating proportionally more delinquencies and foreclosures than subprime mortgages ...". Calc risk does one of the best jobs of consistently reporting on RE and CRE issues.

From Mish let's just toss in Housing Update - How Far To The Bottom?. Mish is always so positive. Let's see what he has to say, "Thus I see no reason to switch from my long-held estimate of a 2011-2012 timeframe for a bottom. Furthermore, even once housing does bottom, do not expect a V shaped recovery. Housing prices are likely to remain weak especially in real (inflation adjusted) terms for another decade. For a clue as what to expect, take a look at the period from 1991 to 2000 in the first Case-Shiller chart. Expect a similarly long "fat tail" once housing does bottom." Did he just say 2011-2012 as a bottom target. Thought so. This is a great post with a timeline of events.

The funny part (well, not really) is that they have just shoved subprime shit to the side and are moving on like it does not exist. They have no clue what to do with it, so it just got shelved. ROF LMAO, wish I could do that with some of my debt. Ah, just shelve it. I'll address it sometime later when I get around to it.

That sometime will come sooner that later and this IMO is what will wreck the banks and cause a second stimulus. The drawers are full and the closets are bulging with shit they have stuffed away and there are not enough POD's to hold the rest. The ARM resets might as well be on Mars. They are the red headed step child that is totally ignored. Guess they will deal with that problem when it gets here. Out of sight, out of mind.

Of course the majority of the stimulus was not used to create jobs or ignite the economy. It was used to bail out the banking system (thanks Henry). It is almost like they calculated an acceptable unemployment number, decided that was what they could afford to live with, basically screwed the rest of us, gave all the money to the banks and moved on like nothing ever happened. If this is Change You Can Believe In then Bush was golden, cause this administration is more corrupt and owned than any before it. Too bad we (and our children and their children) have got to be the ones that pay for it.

When this blows up, it will not be pretty. They can't hide it forever. P3 anyone?

GL trading!

Monday, July 13, 2009

Let's Bang (on) Meredith

All pile on. Make it a gang bang. MW made a great call today and I believe she will be right on both counts. The up part is the easy call. How the fuck GS is gonna fall will be the miracle part. The only problem I have with her speaking this way is that she gave CNBS a shit pot load of green shoot fertilizer to spew from their mountain top that will be Crameresque (misleading) to the general public.

First I'll refer you to a meaningless and dry post from the WSJ covering her statements on CNBS today. In Analyst Meredith Whitney Bullish on Goldman you get, "However, Ms. Whitney said her bullish view of Goldman is rooted in her overall bearish outlook for the U.S. economy and other U.S. financial companies. During an interview on the financial network CNBC on Monday morning, she said the U.S. unemployment rate could reach 13% and remain elevated beyond 2010, and that most banks likely aren't prepared for prolonged joblessness at that level. The U.S. unemployment rate reached 9.5% in June. She said that bank stocks will be good buys in the short-term due to a robust mortgage business, but that the longer-term outlook for most banks was grim."

Fing brilliant! It is gonna go up and then down, so we are going to put a buy rating on GS. WTF is that all about? Well, dear readers I actually agree. We're talking about Government Sachs. The most insider oriented brokerage (oops - bank holding company) on the planet. She's right on the up first. How much fing money do you think GS made using our tax money in conjunction with their "supposed" market manipulation software? How have GS's earning been effected thru accounting manipulation allowing "specific" assets to be placed off balance sheets? How bout that "lost" quarter? She's exactly right. The government nor the fed will never cut off their right arm, not the company that supplies a vast majority of their higher placed employees.

Denninger takes some shots at MW in Merideth Whitney: The Internet NEVER SLEEPS. For once I have to agree to disagree with my buddy Karl. Karl is right in his argument, but he totally misses the point (as most P3ers do regularly and I did for the longest time as well). It is not time yet for the great collapse. The P3. The big crap. The monster fucking we'll all take when the market really shits on its self. "Our government's policy of looking the other way on blatant accounting farces through FASB changes, refusing to force banks to mark defaulted loans at the current market value of the underlying asset and outright handouts of taxpayer money through AIG as a conduit is outrageous, and worse, it guarantees that the economy will not and cannot recover as the debt still remains in the system!" . BINGO! Karl, you are right, BUT this bullshit manipulation has to work its way thru the trade. All things in good time Karl (buddy).

It took some time, but I have given into the fact that real TA nor EWT counts really work well at all right now. Fundamental analysis is dead. This fing market is running IMO on rotten analyst ratings, accounting scams and any other fing manipulative bullshit technique they can use to keep it afloat. Of course GS is gonna go up. You really freaking think they are gonna post a bad number or give weak guidance? I'll be surprised as hell if they do. In fact, you can draw and quarter me tomorrow at 9:00 if they do.

Ask yourself, who the hell is behind the depressed estimates and buy ratings? We've relieved ourselves, although inadvertintley, of the vast majority of the brokerages that were not part of the "club" and thus the gang can all get together to pump up the buy ratings and "take advantage" of this earnings trough. At the worst time in history when these holding companies need income in the worst way, you actually think they are going to do something that would not spurn a buying spree? Get real dude. They are in the business of pumping and pushing product. BUY AMERICA baby!

HA! Here is where the problem lies. They have dug their own hole and unintentionally will release the doom and gloom. Unless they come up with a "super buy" rating or for the KMart shoppers a "blue light special" on aisle 2, they can't pump these things up any more. I mean really, who the fuck is gonna put a buy rating on any freaking retailer (or insert any sector here _____) in the worst economic downturn since the great depression. Give me a fing break. Also, the banks manipulated BS earnings will collapse one day (sooner than later). IMO either this quarter or next will be the last before the shit hits the fan.

Folks it is all a bunch of bullshit and the house of cards will come crumbling down GUARANTEED here at Shanky's site. P3 will occur. The moronic and manipulated analysts will be eating crow. I'm sure most of you know my call from my Shanky's State Of the Charts Post. Option one is up then down. See, MW is just catching up with your buddy Shanky. She lags.

Both Karl and MW are right. Up then down. Even GS will crumble one day (not sure how, but it will). Just be patient P3ers and permabears. Be patient and don't bang on MW too hard.

Sunday, July 12, 2009

"The Club" Has The Deck Stacked Against Any And Every Competitor

Happy Sunda morning. In this post, I'll just cover the Aces in the deck....

The Ace of Harts - ZeroHedge - CIT Prepares To File Bankruptcy - "The WSJ reporting that the lender to over 1 million small sized businesses has hired Skadden Arps in preparation of a bankruptcy filing. The formerly largest competitor to GE Capital for any and every semi- and fully-toxic loan imaginable, has been so far outright denied a bailout by an administration that has rarely professed a non-socialist approach to corporate demise." Ah, hem... 'formerly largest competitor to GE Capital'? Does this stench of the club allowing a competitor to be eliminated? Sounds like something Hitler would have done creating his master race. Hmmm? Maybe a master financial club or group is being whittled out of this mess. What do you think?

The Ace of Spades - The Market Ticker - Stupidity Bites HARD: Dodd and Frank. In another Denninger classic (they seem to come weekly now at an increasing frequency), Karl points out, "The same banks that lobbied hard to "reform" bankruptcy so you cannot file Chapter 7 any more when you go bankrupt and stick lenders with the bad lending decisions they made of their own free will. That is, your credit and financial life is ruined, but theirs (which should also be ruined) is not." Survival of the "to large to fail" is much more important that you, your brother, friend or anyone for that matter. Karl also points out, "And more importantly, the same banks that lobbied hard this spring to get an exemption from mark-to-market accounting for the "assets" they hold on their books - an exemption they were in fact using without having it, as I will shortly illustrate." These are just two selected quotes from a sensational article that will add another bur under your saddle.

Ace of Clubs - The Pragmatic Capitalist - MUST READ: THE REAL FORCE BEHIND THE EXPLOSION IN VOLUME AND VOLATILITY. TPC adds nicely those the front the blogs and ZH have been fighting against market manipulation . "Regular readers likely know that I am not always fast to cast judgment on potentially guilty parties, but as the evidence mounts it is quite obvious that something is horribly wrong and it begins with Wall Street’s most powerful firms." TPC, admirably, is a little more cautious and contemplative than most blogs before firing the guns of conspiracy or fraudulent actions. For TPC to be coming out of the closet, something must really reek.

Ace of Diamonds - ZeroHedge - The Federal Reserve Under Increasing Fire has a great video you should watch. You know that transparency issues had to be an ace in the deck. I picked the ZH post to link because of the vid that concisely tells most of the story, but you sould really go to the Campaign For Liberty site to dive more into this subject and other VERY important issues facing you and your nation.

As for all of the face cards in the deck, pick any of the following or add your own, media manipulation, mortgage meltdown, commodity price manipulation, any action of the fed, most any action of our government, GS and the other banksters, and on and on. They all form an elite group that is interconnected and stands beside each other like some form of mafia family. No one speaks out or betrays the "order".

It is getting more obvious by the day that the game is rigged. I believe the government will continue to hide the facts and do what they believe is in our best interests whether we like it or not. Think about that for a minute. They will do what they think is best for us? Wrong, they will do what is best for "them". The ones controlling the deck. We are inconsequential fleas on the ass of the elite. To them we mean NOTHING. Well, in reality, our well being should be their number one concern, for we are the rats under the hood that keep the engine going. It is about their survival and control of global power.

"We the people" have been warned continuously about the concentration of power and "we the people" have not done a damn thing about it. This is partly our fault, dumbed down by the boob tube and sucked into easy credit allowing us to gather plasma tv's for every room and and to amass piles of worthless immaterial shit that we had no business buying in the first place. We're a pathetically lazy nation that has overspent and consumed so much that we became bloated (with the help of the media, banksters, et all) and blind to the truth.

We're waking up now and coming to our senses, but we've laid all our chips on the table and all we have in the hole is a 7 and a 2. We're all in with a crappy hand and they have a rigged deck. Better hope the flop delivers a pair and all low cards and the river brings a 7 or a 2. If not, you know what happens.

Friday, July 10, 2009

Weekend Video Viewing Pleasure With The Ghost Rider

If you have not seen him, you have missed some really crazy stuff. This dude is nuts. Great cop chase. I promise this is more exciting than the market this past week.

Enjoy and have a great weekend.

The vid below is good, but the Z3 M chase is even better (did not have embed feature - sorry). Whoever is driving the Z3 is amazing (not to mention what the car will do vs. the Ghost Rider).

What Is Kneale Really Up To?

For those of you who do not follow The Market Ticker (who should have it in their daily reading), Karl Denninger is a witty down to earth brainiac that gives wonderfully truthful and intelligent easy to read analysis on a variety if issues effecting the market and your investments.

Denninger got involved with the whole moronic Dennis Keale v. bloggers discussion via a challenge he laid out to Dennis in Kneale: You Asked For It..... In this must read post for all P3 believers Karl discusses why the credit bubble has not popped and why the current recession is not over and will linger for a while. "Well Dennis, I don't think I should have to recite the last two+ years of numbers, nor the litany of new Fed Credit programs, nor the consumer credit numbers which were released today and which your network reported this afternoon, when you're the one claiming that "the recession is over" and argue against the credit recession position I put forward. But since you didn't bother with these nasty things called "facts", I'll do it for you."

Karl got invited to be on CNBS and discuss blogger identity issues. WTF? This worthless interview is really not worth the discussion or posting. However in Denninger's post Follow-Up To Dennis Kneale And CNBC, he offers a nice rebuttal that is really worth viewing (especially for the CNBS haters).

So, the questions continue from the blogosphere on CNBS's possible involvement in manipulating the market. Denninger lays out a wonderful refreshingly new argument that TD at ZeroHedge should dig a little deeper into (if Karl is not going to do so himself and ZH can get off of its GS tangent for a few posts). Front running I believe it is called. This is a new an different angle that if proven could wind up being as large as GS's "market manipulation" program issue (not in total volume, but in cheating via front running).

IMO everyone has to visit the john to puke after watching CNBS spew green shoot bullshit after an hour of so. I'm no genius, but I have enough common sense to know what is real and what is not. I personally have quit watching and now listen to a variety of things with Bloomberg Radio at the top of the list. What I want to ask is, what is Kneale's real purpose behind his attack of the blogs?

I called him a weasel for a good reason earlier. This BS attack blogger anonymity is a front for something IMO. Dennis may be a total idiot (as Karl calls him) when it comes to any sort of knowledge of the markets ("what is the VIX?), but he may be some sort of master at manipulating opinions or herding the sheeple in a specific direction. Look at who he works for.

It is a widely known fact that the blogs are destroying the major media, especially the print group. Attacks against blogs are becoming more prevalent for various reasons from content hijacking via linking to articles to bloggers being "non professionals" blogging on stuff they have no place writing about.

So just what is DK up to here? Is it simply name recognition or to increase viewership to his lame show or is their something more to this? Just what is this weasel up to? I do not trust him or his network and would not be posting on this issue if I did not have the opinion that the front man for GE is on a mission assigned by his taskmasters to do something to discredit the blogosphere.

The list is long of blogs that consistently challenge and disprove the bullshit that CNBS spews (well, the 60% IMO that is not truth). I would not be surprised to find that the blogosphere's attacks of CNBS have cost them viewership and shifted viewers to other sources (well, the content has something to do with the shifting of viewers as well I'm sure). Is CNBS using DK in some sort of offensive in a larger plan to weaken the web and its freedoms to further attack our Constitutional right to free speach so they can further dominate and protect their turf?

A note to Karl and the other bloggers that may get sucked into these worthless discussions - Watch out for the Weasel.

Two Quickies?

OK, I don't usually read marketwatch, but these two caught my eye and I'm tired from hauling my butt up a big ass mountain today so let's make this quick. Something good and something bad.

MarketWatch - The Chartist now charts a downward path Commentary: Top-performing adviser is back in cash, again "But Sullivan earlier this week pulled the plug on even this remaining equity exposure. And so, all his model portfolios are now 100% in cash."

And something to make you happy! This is some real bullshit.

MarketWatch - Banks buying back TARP warrants at a discount, panel says "A panel that oversees a $700 billion bank bailout package said Friday that financial institutions buying out warrants they gave the government in exchange for capital injections are now buying back those stakes at well below their fair value." HA! Go freaking figure. More BS manipulation for the banksters. This is just unreal.

OK - Three quickies - Prag Cap - DOES THE VIX GAP = MARKET CRASH? "However, the noise coming out of the Chicago Board Options Exchange today is over a July call spread using VIX options that relies on a market swan dive over the coming 41 days before it would earn profits. One trader spent an $850,000 premium on buying 20,000 July calls at the 45 strike while selling the same amount of 55 strike calls, thus lowering the overall premium to 42.5 cents. The VIX hasn’t traded above 40 since April 21 and we’re wondering what this guy knows that no one else does."

PS - GLD looks weak IMO.

Thursday, July 9, 2009

UNG - Possible MA Pattern

Update - From Condotieri at ZH Comments - Commodity ETF UNG Halted to issue new shares "

MarketWatch - Natural gas inventories rose 75 bcf last week: EIA, "NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- U.S. natural gas inventories rose 75 billion cubic feet in the week ended July 3 to reach 2,796 billion cubic feet, the Energy Information Administration reported Thursday. Analysts at IHS Global Insight had expected an increase of 71 billion cubic feet. After the data, August natural gas futures rose 6.8 cents, or 2.1%, to $3.421 per million British thermal units. At the current level, inventories were 601 billion cubic feet higher than last year at this time and 452 billion cubic feet above the five-year average."

I'm seeing a possible MA pattern inside the falling wedge. Potential buy signal for another short pop here. Reaction to news this am was muted. Out lower bb here with RSI bottoming out and possible STO bull cross. With massive inventories and oil prices falling, I expect a pop, but further weakness and possibly lower lows in the future. Notes in the chart.

MA Pattern Definition courtesy of Scott at StockTock -

Let's Try This Again - A Possible Bounce Here?

I hate being wrong. Let's get that out of the way. A few days ago I made a weak case for a bounce and got about 7 points before further collapse. Admittedly very wrong. Why? I have become so accustomed to the PPT, GS and the marry gang propping up the markets every time the 60m bottomed out I lost all focus.

Well, here is a little more versed shot at why we have a minor correction here before further weakness.

Notes are in the chart. Here goes - The ABC move off of 956 to here is complete. A=C. The yellow fib in the chart is the measurement. The C leg of the C leg measures .618 of the A leg of the C leg, so it can be technically complete. 60m indicators are all turning north from a short embedded stint. The red and black trendlines I believe are solid and were meant to hold this fall. There is another way of looking at the red falling wedge that may be breaking out. It could also play as an A-E count with a truncated E. That pattern would be completed as well or will be with another touch of the lower trendline. The steepness of the fall and some recent candle action are assisting the call. The 60m VIX looks to be turning as well.

Again, I will note that the dailys and weeklys are not ready for any major turn, so this call may be premature, but I am only looking to the fib retracements at the 900 to 902 level for the bounce. If I miss this call, then I got too good at reading manipulated markets and need to brush up on some real TA. Maybe GS has lost their touch since the cat got out of the bag with their proprietary market manipulation software. If that is the case, I'll surely be wrong.

On another note, I have gotten some comments and emails on the upcoming earnings season. My thoughts are mixed. First, the analysts are part of the game. They are in it to sell you something. If you are not buying then they don't make as much money. Second, the banks earnings will miss at some point, just not sure when. The manipulated bullshit that happened at the end of last year where they decided to just exclude a month of earnings will come back to bite them in the butt eventually. When is the question. Thus I have mixed views on how earnings will be. Rightfully so they should suck. How any retailer is still above water is beyond comprehension.

Note: Still on vacation in Colorado, so posts are few. Saw a big damn brown bear last night. Walked out of the restaurant after dinner and there down the side street about 50 yards away was this huge ass bear looking for some food. The marshall chased him around a few houses and he got away. I was hoping that would be some sort of sign.

GL trading and thanks for the views and comments.

Wednesday, July 8, 2009

$20 Per Barrell Of Oil?

While trolling the blogs tonight I came across a some good articles on manipulation of the price of black gold, Texas tee, oil that is, and since oil price manipulation causes a serious boil on my ass that can never seem to get healed properly I thought I'd go for some late night therapy on the 'ol blog.

The problem of price manipulation would be solved so easily if they would not allow the people without any actual skin in the game to play the game. What the hell is JPM doing owning millions of barrels of oil held on a tanker off of some coast in Europe? Seriously, what right/purpose/need does JPM have owning raw crude other than to profit handsomely off of our already struggling pocket books? This is a (once) great American institution giving the country that bailed its ass out of oblivion a 20 foot oil enema and not even saying thank you in the process.

Fuck 'em I say. If you don't have a refinery, you can't buy the shit ANYMORE! Wonder what this would do to oil prices/demand? (also note that this type of action has driven (falsely) the BDI up). It is all a rigged game at our expense. Let's call it a hidden tax.

Sorry for that, anyway, Naked Cap has Verlerger on Oil Glut: "There has never been anything like it". "For eight straight months, oil supplies have been running about 2 million barrels a day higher than the global demand of 83 million barrels a day, Verleger said. Eventually, he and others predicted, suppliers will tire of paying to store all of the surplus oil and flood the market. "That is the largest and longest continuous glut of supply that I have seen in 30 years of following energy prices," Verleger said. "It's a huge surplus. There has never been anything like it."

Wanna do the math on 8 months x 2 million surplus barrels a day? That is a shit pot load of oil stored somewhere, and I would assume that there is no place left to store any more. So what happens with all the oil say bought in the $55 range with prices dropping? It gets dumped and then the dominoes start falling. This could get interesting. Is this a mini oil bubble?

And our Buddy Denninger had this at The Market Ticker - Congressional Smokescreen (Blown With Oil). I love Denninger. He's like a really, really smart me with better language.

Here is what he has to say, "Folks, the solution to this sort of stupidity is simple: REINSTATE Glass-Steagall in its entirety, and return commercial banking to the utility function that it is and should be, as it is both regulated and protected by the government against the full consequences of failure.

Demand that those who want the "hedging exception" demonstrate their actual use of the commodity in question in amounts that correspond to the hedged positions held, with nightly reporting requirements to the CFTC.

End of problem.

But no! We instead have to see oil go to $150 last year and then double into collapsing demand and commercial banks leasing tankers to store oil in, purchased with federally-backstopped money, that they then intend to release into the market and sell back to us at a higher price at a later date!"

ROF LMAO - We are so on the same page here. I hope you get it. Folks (I use Folks and so does he, but I'm not copying that. I'm from the south and that's just what we say down here), if a brain like Denninger and a meat head like me can so simply put a common sense answer to this problem then why can't our leaders? Why, cause it is fucking rigged as hell. They have been screwing us for years (XOM and their $35 billion dollar profits - that's our freaking money - and not to mention all of the alt energy projects they have bought and shelved (future post in that one)). Shit. What the hell?

Lets add from the WSJ - Oil Speculators Under Fire. "In Washington, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, the main U.S. futures-market regulator, said it is considering tougher regulation of oil-futures markets. The proposed rules, which drew immediate criticism from traders, would seek to curb the influence of speculative investors such as hedge funds and investment banks by limiting how much money any single trader can bet on any one commodity at a time."

Anyone get the feeling the shit is about to hit the fan here?

I'll do a more in depth post on this. I searched some cool things and this post really does not do any justice to the real deal surrounding oil prices. It will be a fun and easy rant.

Here is a chart for your viewing pleasure. Note the breakdown of the 30 and 45ma's and what happened the last time this occurred. If this puppy is in the midst of a 5-3-5 move south, $20 may be a real possibility.

Tuesday, July 7, 2009

ZeroHedge, Our Light In Dark Times Here In The Matrix (A Shanky Rant)

The bullshit fucking government and media crap that we must endure day after day so we can save the fucking republic. All for what? So we can be oppressed by the banksters and the manipulators that are gathering every ounce of wealth left in this turnip we somehow still call America.

This post was going to be about should you continue to invest in this market given the recent light (Q beam) shined on the "possible" market manipulation that has been occurring. I have trashed it because the answer is plain and simple. You are a FUCKING MORON if you invest in this market. Government Sachs and the PPT are out of the bag.

Sure, most of us have (well, most of us after going thru a "trouble stage" figured out that the market can defy reality and gravity) made money and will continue to (at reduced rates of return with greater risk), but if you believe that you can invest and make money in this rigged and manipulated market be my freaking guest.

Some screwy song goes - Chicago, Chicago, blah, blah, blah. Is it a wonder that the greatest CRIMINAL market scam in history involves Chicago? The most wonderful state where the Governor has a better chance of winding up in jail than getting hit by lightning? The home of our current president I might add (which I think will come into play big time before this story ends).

This to me (and every other sane person) this reeks of corruption and IMHO will be buried at the highest level with GS getting their proprietary "market manipulation" software back and everyone else ( especially any whistle blowers) winds up in jail.

For those green shooter sheeple readers that have blasted me in the past in comments or via email about my suspicions of market manipulation and their effects on the market dig this quote from assistant U.S. Attorney Facciponte, "“The bank has raised the possibility that there is a danger that somebody who knew how to use this program could use it to manipulate markets in unfair ways,” Facciponti said, “The copy in Germany is still out there, and we at this time do not know who else has access to it.” So what the fuck was GS possibly doing with it in the first place? Duh? Bueller? Bueller?

I'm not going to rehash all of ZeroHedge's fine work. No one can. ZH is the beacon of truth that exists because of free enterprise and the rights under the Constitution (at least the ones still left that the current and formar administrations have not trashed). ZH, a little website on the net has out scooped and out reported every major media provider except Reuters that broke the story.

I ask, how is it a 4 person group on the net can out report the MILLIONS of reporters and "experts" paid millions of dollars with all the resources and connections in the world? How? The support of millions of intelligent informed readers that have all come together for a common good. Yet, "how" may be the wrong question. WHY, may be the right question.

Why? Simply because they are NOT CONTROLLED by Immelt or Murdoch or the government. They are not part of "the game". They are not a bunch of overpaid talking heads hell bent on promoting the bullshit lies and agendas of the elite. They are the rogue player that shows up at the pick up game and kicks every ones ass. The outsider that is not a member of the club that actually out smarts the hell of the insiders.

That begs the question, is ZH actually out smarting or out reporting the big boys? Well, in reality they are kicking every ones ass at this point. Most likely this potential reality IMO of market manipulation has been known by many in the club but never spoken or brought to light with any fervor for fear of being banished to the Siberian front for not toating the hard line of their task masters. No fear of a CLM at ZH. That's the difference.

One would wonder that if the property stolen could lead to such market manipulation then why the hell has this not made the headlines in every paper or TV report on the planet? Why are the reporters not digging into this with the speed and diligence they attacked the Michael Jackson death story? It really should make you begin to question the reality of everything here in the Matrix.

A bigger question may be, why is GS not shut down at this point? Right here, right now? For God sakes the Assistant U.S. Attorney says this program could lead to "market manipulation". What the hell? I have said again and again that the value of the stock and bond markets was all the administration had left during this credit crisis to keep the sheeple from totally going ballistic. So GS manages the market and Bernanke manages the bond side. It's all fucking manipulated bullshit, and if you don't see it now then you never will.

I thank TD and the ZH crew for their seismic efforts to expose the truth and bring this once great democracy back to (or at least as close as possible that 4 people and some computers can) its former respectable self. With out them and the many others in the blogosphere where would we be?

Please read ZH every day and become informed. Support their efforts of restoring the democracy. Read the blogs. Don't just listen to the bullshit being spewed by the talking heads. Hell, support all efforts of restoring decency and respect to our nation. If you just keep sitting on your ass and do nothing about it, then we're all fucked. So please get involved. Do something, for time is running out.

Sorry this is not the best written post I have done, it was hurried and done while on vacation, so please forgive the plethora of grammatical issues in this post.

Update: I should include and unfortunately failed to mention in no specific order Mish, Prag Cap, Naked Cap, The Market Ticker and The Big Picture as other wonderful resources of truth on the web. All links can be found in my blogroll.

Monday, July 6, 2009

She's Turning About - The SPX That Is

Update - Wow what a bad call. Let me explain why - I am so cought up in the PPT saving every technical turn on the 60m this one caught me off guard. I did note that the Dailys still had room to run and the pop was minimal to 907, but the fact is I still missed it. Sorry. Maybe GS is out of the market now with their market manipulation programs sidelined.

I see potential buy signals showing up on SPX 60m here. None are confirmed just yet, but since I'm getting ready to take a long jeep ride in the Rocky's thought I would throw this out there. It does look like some sort of bottoming process is happening on the 60m, but the daily's are not quite ready to cooperate. Just be ready to switch teams here soon, or at least be on the lookout for a potential small reversal. This will only IMO be a short pop to the 38 fib or top trendline around 904. The VIX appears to hape potentially topped out at a top channel line as well. All of this looks very weak and will only creat better short entries soon IMO.

60m SPX -

Indicators are bottoming. Does not want to take out 888 convincingly (although it did set a new low!!!)

Daily SPX

Got bear cross on the 50/200ma's (sorry Dennis Kneale) and the 200 does not look like it wants to break down just yet. Also right near the lower BB as support.

China joins carbon tax protest

FT reports that China is pissed at O's administration for our Cap and Trade policies. Go freaking figure. They are not only bad for us here but will really screw the rest of the world. Maybe this is part of the master plan. Tax the world to death! That is our democratic leadership for you. We'll come out of it eventually (a long time from now) smelling like a rose, but the rest of our trading partners will be crippled. SWEET!

In China joins carbon tax protest FT reports "Beijing on Friday joined a growing clamour of complaint about US plans for a carbon tax on imports from countries without their own emission caps, warning it could set off a global trade war.

The warning follows the passage of a cap-and-trade bill in the US House of Representatives last weekend, which contained tough provisions to impose carbon tariffs to ensure that American companies would not lose competitive advantage. A recent report by the World Trade Organisation and the UN said such taxes could in theory be crafted to be compatible with WTO law, but it would be hard to prove they were not an illegal disguised restriction on international trade."

Funny thing is that the world may come to save our ass on this one, but I doubt it. Our administration will find some idiotic way to ease the pain for our trade partners and increase the pain here in the US. This debate will be a good one to follow.

China May Implode - With The Rest Of The World

CNN - Over 140 killed in ethnic unrest in China "The violence reportedly happened at a toy factory in Guangdong province, where many migrants, including Uyghurs, have moved in search of work. A massive brawl reportedly broke out between workers of Uyghur and Han nationalities. Two Uyghurs reportedly died." and "Dilxat Raxit added that tens of thousands of demonstrators had gathered in every Uyghur neighborhood in Urumqi to protest peacefully against what he described as the government's ethnic cleansing in Guangdong's Shaoguan City."

Folks, it is not as rosy in China as you are being led to believe. It is quite amazing that this report got out of the country with the accompanying video. I am sure you all know about the internet censorship in China.

China is on board for a major implosion IMHO. China has lost roughly 20mm jobs already. China's Peasants Abandon Cities as 20 Million Jobs Disappear. If we are lying about our jobs numbers, lord knows what China's true job losses are.

In A World of Trouble, the sequel you get a 20 coun try rundown of all the issues facing them. This is a very eye opening report that you should read.

It is ugly out there and on the verge of getting worse. I'm not sure how this financial meltdown will end, but IMO we've got a lot more ugliness to get thru before the end can arrive. The signs are there and the unrest is brewing. People are pissed off and it is only a matter of time before something really bad happens.