Morning Charts 12/18/2014 SPX /es

What a way to start the Xmas ramp with a 44 point SPX move off the lows (biggest day of year) and back that up with the potential open this morning. See, Santa does exist. 

The big news - other than Grandma doing her part yesterday - Swiss Central Bank Plunges Into NIRP, Sends Deposit Rates Negative, Scrambles Against Safe-Haven Capital Flight - Negative interest rates are good? On what planet? Maybe on the one where financial systems are flailing out of control as the global economy crashes to the ground. Seriously - they are pitching this as like really good news. 



On to the lie - 

SPX 5m - There could be a few more pos divs drawn here, but SC ran out of green ink. Bottom line is this chart and the 1980 area I was harping on worked really well the past week. Now that blue dashed s/r diagonal has been crossed and the 38% retracement is going to get abused this morning. There is no way the Fed was going to let price fall into that massive black hole sub 1980. I'm surprised they let it fall below 25 personally. Typical power move for the FED, and you should expect something similar up around 62% in the 2030's. STB is curious to see what happens at the 2025 area (my initial first target). 

SPX Daily - Fall to set a point to set lower diagonal support for a rising wedge for the ramp into Xmas and EOY. Been saying that for some time now. See red rising wedge and what I was looking for. Now, they have to follow through here, but what I was looking for may be about to materialize. Look at the amazing run in the dollar on this chart, and note the last low and this low of TNX. 2038 area is the STB bull/bear line. 

More to come below. 

Have a good day. 

GL and GB!

Morning Post 12/13/11, Chartapalooza day!

Let's look at some LT weekly charts.

EUR/USD - Is that a massive HnS targeting 60? STB has had a $116 target (after $135 then $125 targets) for quite some time now. IF that is a HnS then my target may just be the neckline of a massive failure.

Black Gold, Texas Tea - (Oil That Is)

I thought I would sling out a $WTIC chart of light sweet crude for you to see. Why? I think it could be nearing a turning point and you may want to run out and fill up the SUV first. Save some cash before Xmas. Call it my present to you. (that is of course if the price of gas ever adjusts down appropriately)

$WTIC daily - Is it the blue channel support or the pink dashed TL or is it a backtest of the last triangle top TL? The stopping forces now are the completed 62% retracement, the blownout lower BB, the RSI5 bottoming out and the pink LT TL being met. The downward move still has some legs if you look at the lacking divergence in RSI and that it has some room to fall still. S Sto and CCI still have some room to run as well.

Bottom line is that it looks like oil will be bottoming soon. The big question is what is to come? Is this the long lost 5th wave up? Will it be the first corrective of a larger fall? I think oil has topped or has limited upside from here (barring a war). I am still drawn to the lower black TL as a target. I just like where it breaches the gray box/retracement zone. That may be a bit much to ask now, but if we should have some difficult economic news (LOL - that was a joke - who would expect any bad economic news?), who knows? GL out there!

E-minis Now (And Some Long Term Stuff - Call It A Chart-o-rama)

/ES - Daily - Blue wedge is the P2 bull market rising wedge that price is obeying. Black TL coming down is the bear market top line. Pink is the old gap from 1107 tp 1109 that seems to be the resistance point. Green is the new support line IMO. I hate the look of that hook up in the indicators that stopped dead what should have been a good run to the bottom for the indicators (can you say PPT?). E-minis within one half of a point of a double top (or new high) this hour.

/ES 60m - See the action in the blue wedge and resistance at the pink line. 60m indicators are topping here. That combined with the resistance and double top might be cause for a reversal. Of course the dailys will have to whipsaw for this to happen.

/ES weekly so you can see the bigger picture. I do not (as a bear) like that busted divergence line on the RSI. I believe P3 begins at or near the break of the gray trendline below RSI.Notice how overbought the weekly indicators are. It is only a matter of time before they let go. Looks like MACD will be the most reliable indicator.

DXY weekly - So what is supposed to happen when a falling wedge ends and the indicators are all oversold and have been for months? LOL, this chart looks like UNG - that's not all that funny when you think about it.

A picture tells 1,000 words. What happens when the dollar falls? That would be TNX, SPX, Oil and Gold up and dollar down. Hmmm....you think the inverse is true? Watch for a crack in that 40ma.

 

Want to see a nasty divergence? Look at RSI in this SPX yearly chart. Uh, yup, no one saw this fall coming. LOL. Now, is that a yearly hammer bouncing off of support and the 20ma? Not sure. Those indicators look like crap. MACD just now getting the bear cross from the run up since 1980. It's got a little steam to blow off yet. This is NOT a pretty chart if you are a bull.Dig where that lower BB is. Ouchie!

Now, before you bears start jumping around and ripping your clothes off in a fit of joy after looking at that last chart (GWLK -pls send photos this comment does not apply to you), you have to survive this next one - SPX Monthly. Those indicators need some work to turn. The weeklys are set to help with this process.






No post tonight as I will be holding up street signs again and then coaching basketball and finally decorating a tree - then sleeping. I might get the Look Into The Futures post done. Thanks for the views and happy holidays.

UNG Time (About Time)!

UPDATE: New UNG chart at 3:15.

NOTE: As I did this post I had to move the fibs DOWN three times to keep up with the fall. Amazing.

First let's visit the United States Natural Gas Fund Site HERE. This is where you need to read to understand this investment if you have not read about it. There you can find the NAV of UNG as of the close yesterday $8.70 and price closed at 10.27. That would be a 15.29% premium to NAV. That has to correct. That will keep downward pressure on the price. I'm not gonna rehash the rest of the story.

First chart is UNG and Oil. The historical price relationship should be restored eventually. How this happens is any one's guess. Right now I'm thinking Oil will be doing most of the work.



The next chart is a new 30m chart I threw together today realizing we all needed a little better drill down than I was providing. All I can say is that UNG appears to be oversold based on all indicators and has been for some time. The move over the past three days looks capitulative to me. Too steep and totally parabolic right now. The problem is I am not about to recommend a buy. I just can't. If you should trade it, please, 10,000x please use stops and have a strategy.

It will correct at some time in the future and that will be a good winner, but if you have been averaging in all the way down you are in deep shit. I started buying at 23 and got out at 19. Have not touched it since. Don't plan on trying to catch this falling knife. You bottom fishers waiting, I have one question - Do you feel lucky? Well, do ya PUNK?

Oil Up Or Oil Down?

Looking at the chart of light sweet crude today. We have two options.

1) Up scenario - are we in a 5 wave corrective move up? The count looks good and places the target price in the yellow box between 76 and 86. A price of 78 completes a 38% retracement of the whole fall from 147. The indicators seem to favor further strength. RSI is taking out a trendline and moving thru 50, MACD appears to be getting a bull cross on and S Sto is headed up. All have plenty of room to run.

2) Down scenario - completed a near perfectly measured ABC corrective move stopping just short of a 38% retracement. Crossed under the 30 and 45 ma's that have tracked the price so well thru this chart. Look at the 147 top and see what happened the last time these two ma's crossed. Well, $WTIC is trading under these two ma's and they appear to be headed for the bear cross. After $WTIC broke the lower channel line, it has come back like a champ for the backtest of the trendline and should meet resistance from the 30 and 45 ma's.

Two pretty good cases I'd say. Stuck in the middle I'd say. Hard to lean on any further strength given global demand and over supply. Hard to go against prices continuing to climb given the price demands from foreign countries relying desperately on higher priced oil (that was a nice way of avoiding price manipulation discussion but still including it).

The indicators do not favor a further move south, so I am going for option 1 with oil shooting for the target box. Then it can crash cause the price per barrel is total bullshit anyway. Back on July 8th I did a post $20 Per Barrel Of Oil?. I suggest you review this wonderfully article laden post on oil price manipulation. Folks, we're talking more than the price of a commodity here. Governments live and die on the price of this stuff and it effects your cash as well.

I have two preferred quotes from that spectacular blog post. From the WSJ article, " "In Washington, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, the main U.S. futures-market regulator, said it is considering tougher regulation of oil-futures markets. The proposed rules, which drew immediate criticism from traders, would seek to curb the influence of speculative investors such as hedge funds and investment banks by limiting how much money any single trader can bet on any one commodity at a time." OK, for those that there really is not any price manipulation going on, they are just trading the shit out of it and where the chips fall they fall - LOL - Bullshit I say.

And the best was from Naked Cap with Verlerger on Oil Glut: "There has never been anything like it". "For eight straight months, oil supplies have been running about 2 million barrels a day higher than the global demand of 83 million barrels a day, Verleger said. Eventually, he and others predicted, suppliers will tire of paying to store all of the surplus oil and flood the market. "That is the largest and longest continuous glut of supply that I have seen in 30 years of following energy prices," Verleger said. "It's a huge surplus. There has never been anything like it."
Anyone care to do the math on that?

So we go up then down or just straight down? You tell me. You know I am in the if you can't beat 'em join 'em camp. (I'm really gonna follow the indicators north till they turn then I will get short unless further weakness happens here - look for the target box)

Thanks for the views and GL trading.