When Is Enough Enough? E-minis SPX 500 Futures

You tell me when enough is enough. The latest unfathomable feat of the march to infinity and beyond happened on Friday after the bell I guess speculation (with some inside information) on the Greek bailout announcement. Of course the minis shot up a few extra points, but what they gapped thru is the insanity of it. For months I have been bringing you the minis and the wedge. The upper trendline has been the one constant the market has respected, until tonight. In the words of Moses, "Behold his power and respect his rules." (No caps cause I was referring to Helicopter Ben in the place of I Am).

Daily from the low - 

60m Drill down -

Even closer - note the gap thru the TL. That is one way of knowing you have a really solid TL in the right spot. So now futures price is above the bull run's top TL and in the green wedge heading further into the stratosphere. The reversal of all this will be horrendous.

I believe the 60m futures will still be overbought in the morning (see the TLs under the indicators above). The divergence on the daily RSI and overbought condition can not be ignored much longer. After the gap up in SPX to get it's 1200 glory, I am anticipating a fall of some degree. Let the 30m minis cycle to the top and that should be the proper time to enter shorts (they have a nasty way of setting up the 30m indicators to bottom in the am so be careful shorting till they top). The 30m SPX rupture (see my last post below) on Friday was possibly the single most abomination of the charts I have seen thus far on the run up.

One last chart - YEARLY SPX - 1209 looks to be a really important number on this chart.You need to note that the MACD is still in bear mode and although RSI is bouncing off the 50 line now I would not pay that any attention. The yearly RSI will have to hit the 25 line or worse before this ends. That is one super bearish candle in 2008. I expect the candle for this year to be red as well. Yes, that is a trendline and the lower BB near 300. The 50 ma is at 479. More in the am. GL!

Morning Post, SPX, S&P 500, e-mini

Well they have teed off at the Masters and apparently the bears have teed off on the bulls as well. I am still on vacation. I can't wait to get back to writing the evening posts.

Pivot Points - Know 'em

Economic Calendar - Very busy with Jobs before the bell and Natgas at 10:30.

Masters - I still swear to this day the first time I walked into Amen Corner my feet did not touch the ground.

First an overview of where your favorite index is. Who has the farthest to fall to catch up? Well, you TZA and QID fans that have been feeling most of the pain have a chance to get the most delight on the backside if prior trends persist IMO.

SPX daily - Lord I hope the final divergence is set and this sucker can finally roll over for a week or two (or 52).

SPX weekly - Just look at the SPXA50 and the NYMO divergence and the last few time this combo has happened.

UNG- I'm not sure who it was that posted the possible breakout of UNG on March 8th. Oh yeah, that was me! As far as I know I was the only person on the planet that made the call. I did the post on Focal Equity and only linked it here in some comments. This time may be a little different, but a move north is still possible as the 30, 60 and dailys are oversold again. The possibility exists for a continued move north. I'd have my finger on the trigger at 10:30 just in case. I made a great scalp in less than 5 minutes last time.

GL today. I expect some churn today with a 50% chance of continued downside action. I'm thinking a corrective is in order if it does not let go. I'll post again during the day like yesterday if anything happens. This crack on the minis should be a big deal but may want a backtest so be patient. If no backtest, look out.

S&P 500, $SPX,

I hope everyone had a good weekend. With All the action this week (see Economic Calendar below) picking a direction here would be meaningless. Sure the indicators say overbought and the economy is a total mess, but that means nothing. You have to roll with the punches. Play what the Fed and the BD's give you. You are playing their game and have to play by their rules. Easter week, so we have a short week and trading may be light. 

Economic Calendar -HUGE week. With ADP Wednesday (a well timed misleading GS number thrown out some time mid weak and some more BS from the BLS), Thursday will be huge with all sorts of stuff and Friday you should know is the big jobs report.What this all adds up to is a big Monday next week IMO.

Pivot Points - Know 'em.

Permabears, keep your emotions in check.

Comparison chart - SPX, Oil, TNX and the dollar are having a party and gold has decided not to join in. The inverse relationship of SPX to the Dollar broke down back in December. The dollar has strengthened considerably and the SPX has ignore this run. This should change. A stronger dollar is not necessarily a good thing for the markets. I guess their argument now is that the price of the dollar to the market is "relative". LOL, that's funny, kinda like the price of gold being manipulated is "relative" as well.

SPX -Can they reverse the trend in the daily indicator chart? It would not surprise me. Remember this is a huge week as mentioned above, then you have to throw in the quarter ending scenario (they want to hold those balances up for a good statement print). This chart looks really bearish (like the top may be in bearish). Beauty is only skin deep though and we all know what the inside of this monster looks like.

SPX 60m - The 15 and 30m charts are oversold, the minis being up a little over 4 and price sitting on support a pop this morning should only complete the current corrective or flag/pennant that is forming.

SPX Weekly - The weekly SPX chart says that a top could be near, but it still has some strength. RSI5 is above where the market has peaked in the past and overbought. F Sto got a bear cross last week. S Sto is no longer climbing and may possibly be setting up  a bear cross in the next week or two. OBV is at the point it has reversed recently. What I want you to see id the relationship between SPXA50 and the NYMO. While it is not necessary, the last several tops have been marked by a top in the SPXA50 combined with a divergence in the NYMO. This has been very reliable. If we are to get some sort of manufactured pop this week thru manipulation of the employment data that may set the divergence for the top. 5 out of the past 6 weeks up to set a higher high is impressive. Bernanke is proving his worth as possibly the best market manipulator ever (but that is really not that hard when there are no regulations or rules to play by and you have no morals).

Based on the dailys I am expecting continued weakness. Possibly a lot of weakness, BUT with the short trading week and the BS BLS coming, I MUST CAUTION the shorties about more strength in the market. I am no longer swing trading anything. It is much better to hit and run. Watch the indicators and do not be surprised at anything. Until that weekly chart confirms a trend change more upside churn is still possible.

GL!

What More Does It Want?

This is getting a little ridiculous. OK, so now I'm seeing a double throwover (black and green wedge. both have completed A-E formations. The ABC has completed and measured out. The indicators have fought back to overbought levels. It is blowing out the upper BB. No divergences yet. It took out resistance set a new high and did nothing. The dow set a higher high today.

Your daily index comparison shows a "nice grouping" with everyone now at higher highs. That grouping would have me nervous as a bull. I'm just waiting patiently. The weekly his is positive right now but the Stos are not there yet. The hist on MACD is there for a turn. Look for the RSI5 to begin to roll over then you should be able to cut loose.

Morning Post

Happy St. Patty's Day. Will it be yet another green day for the markets? The minis say the open will be at least. I hope my NCAA bracket can make a run thru the tournament like the bulls have this past week. Talk about peeking at the right time, the bulls have really put it all together and appear unstoppable (well, with a little help from you know who and a lot of friends at FINRA, the SEC, the Fed, Treasury and various large banks and BD's). Don't worry folks this ramp job will become a rim job sooner or later, and the facial that the manipulators get for ramping this market to where it is will be the all time greatest.

I have a question. Let's say St. Patrick pulled a Tiger and went and had relations with a few lucky ladies behind the pot-o-gold. Who would you instill as the new Patron Saint of Green? Paulson, Bernanke, Geitner or another? (Note - if you did not wear green today, please don't be a dork and pin something green to your shirt. That only makes it worse. If the ladies want to know where your green is, ask them to use their imaginations. That is much better.)

One of my favorite videos of all time - Mobile, Alabama Leprechaun Crackhead Pot of Gold

SPX Daily - Sadly if you look at the indicators, this run is not near as extended as the run back thru January. You all know that I am watching for the weekly to turn (which ain't ready quite yet). The RSI 14 on the daily now has a well established support line under it. That will be my first key. The MACD hist is trending down. S Sto is embedded.The slope of the upper BB is little resistance.

It is Opex Wednesday. Anything could happen. That daily indicator chart is screaming a turn at any moment, BUT the defenders of freedom and the American way are on the other side and will fight for justice and truth (OK, now you are supposed to read sarcasm and thru the lines of that last statement). I'm gonna keep nibbling at some shorties with really tight stops. I'm not risking anything long at this point even thought the patron Saint of Green may be in charge today. The Dow is 50 points from a higher high. I think they will push that thru and after that all bets are off.

Dollar - Price is sitting on the lower support line running off the 74 low under the 76 low. There is also another diagonal support line. The daily indicators are close to bottoming. The 60m have set divergences. Looks like a turn could be coming soon. If the dollar/SPX correlation is for real this may help us time the turm and confirm a little more patience is still in order.

Oil - Sabre rattling with Iran has the most manipulated market in a tizzy. Not sure about that run up over the last couple of days, but it left the daily and 60m indicators in a nice divergence. If it should continue to run under normal fears and manipulation 86 should be the max. Any real fears and triple digits will be here in record time.

Natgas - Still looking for $4.24. At 4.31 nowand severely oversold. This thing might be like a coiled rubber band. It may pop big time, but just like a rubber ban it will fall back almost as fast as it went up. Looking for a UNG pop to the 9.50 area it it ever occurs.

Gold - Still climbing. If the dollar reverses so will gold. Problem there is that gold is riding a pretty solid lower TL right now and if that cracks it really falls. I just don't see that yet. I'll call a slow churn up for now.

EUR/USD - A reversal of the EUR should be upon us. They don't want it or deserve it, but that is what the charts say. The weeklys are oversold and turning up. The dailys are toppy. This does not work with what I am seeing for the dollar as I see them both needing to correct upwards. Something has to give. I think the globalists manipulating the currencies will move them where they need to be, so why are we even using TA? Bottom line is our banking system is more fraudulant and has all the chips and theirs sucks and is owned by ours, so I think we strengthen and they remain flat to down.

Don't forget Shanky's NCAA tournament challenge. We're up to 26 entries, so that is a good field. Go to the link. Join the group shanky's blog and the PW is shanky. I'll do a post on this later today.

GL!

Morning Post

Remember back in January where I kept harping on one more higher high? We're there. I lost a bunch of readers who thought I was nuts and EWT said "this can not happen again". Well, Prechter is not so proudly continuing his 0-fer on calling tops and sticking to using plain vanilla TA is kicking his (and his followers) ass. I am not paid millions to make market calls. I do not have a team of researchers. I am a nobody and am taking him to the woodshed. I wonder if those readers are lurking in the shadows now? Sorry, but I have to say this now, when the hell will you wake up and learn that EWT is a bunch of SHIT. How much money has it cost you. How much time have you wasted following Hotchberg and trying numerous fruitless counts? Is this the 4th top you have "counted" that "had to be it"? Listen, USE TA ONLY and you would not be in this mess. EWT will have it's moments of brilliance. Sometimes counts do work, but as Craig from Stocktock always said, "Trust the charts". That may be the best lesson I ever learned.

Not surprisingly to me, the SPX should open at a new high for the year this morning. Back in the infancy of the blog I set a standard and made the call, the market is manipulated and it will continue to go up until some "external force" that is out of "their" control rips it away. Back then I was one of the few buying into the possibility that the greatest market on earth was a farce, now I am one of the many. Part of my theory has been that the market is all they have left between them and anarchy.

They absolutely must keep the value of the markets up for many reasons. Thru interest rate manipulation they forced the markets to be the only place to play if you wanted to make any money. Thru providing excessive liquidity and quantitative easing and the use of many fraudulent (and what I propose are illegal) accounting measures, they have lifted the market to levels that represent nothing more than a farce. We are participating in the raping of the assets of the American people. The great Pump and Dump. The insider selling should tell you plainly what is going on. There is no regulation. There is no transparency. Everything is run and controlled by the big money lobbyists. The middle class is being wiped out while big government furthers it control over the sheeple thru supplementation to the growing masses of the needy. The welfare state is expanding.

On to the markets - We'll set a higher high on the SPX today. The Dow is still 117 point from setting a higher high.

Here is one of my index comparison charts. It used to be a good chart till this recent round of exuberance screwed it up. If this were a game of darts, I would say that looks like a nice grouping. Compare the last rise and this one. Notice anything different? That's right, this one is not orderly. It is an impulsive piling on. What you are seeing is what one would normally think is a sucker's rally. The last rush in by the dumb money that does not want to miss the move up. This type of piling on usually deserves a 15 yard penalty, but is it different this time? I think so, because the public is not participating. It is your tax dollars running thru the treasury and Fed into the hands of the broker dealers that use the HFT algos to buy and sell against each other front running the markets to siphon off millions for their benefit and bonuses. This is your tax dollars at work trying to "save the economy and produce and economic recovery" FOR THE BANKS.

This thing is about to let go. Be patient. I am not sure if the Dow will have to catch up and set a higher high or not, but if it gets close and as soon as it gets one tick above the previous high, I'd have my finger on the trigger. The weekly chart is not showing a turn yet, but the divergences are stronger now than on any of the previous turns. This will be the top. I am speculating that the mutual funds will want a good month end print (possibly the last one for many years), so this may churn till the last week or thru opex (but it may not).

For those of you that have called me nuts (or worse) for believing and insisting the markets are manipulated and that accounting fraud is the only reason for any of this "recovery" please see The "Repo 105" Scam: How Lehman Fooled Everyone (Including Allegedly Dick Fuld) And How Other Banks Are Likely Doing This Right Now from Zero Hedge. This may be not only the market's black swan but the government and the Fed's as well.

Be patient. I'm waiting on the weeklys to show some sign of wanting to turn (which could happen any minute as the dailys are now showing divergences). I would have to say that if not some time today then next week for sure some sort of turn is coming. I'll have all chambers loaded and a finger on the trigger. At the first sign of any significant momo south, I'll be pulling the trigger as fast as possible.

I'll add this - I'm speculating the possibility of another rising wedge if this is not the ending of the ABC. Well know for sure on the next breakdown which is right. If the ABC plays out we simply fall like a rock, but if we don't look for a D down and E up to a possible double top here to end it all.We're also somewhat off the cycles I was following. There is still plenty of time for the March low I was looking for, and wouldn't it be a beautiful move to get that low set?

GL out there. Don't forget my Tournament Challenge Bracket (PW- Shanky) Have a great weekend!

Morning Post

Will patience be rewarded today for the bears (at least for those who have been able to remain patient)? Minis down a little over 3 (they were down 5). I have the minis cracking the lower TL of a rising wedge that goes back to the 1084 low. The target for the fall is near 1106. The fibs for the fall are 38% -1119, 50% - 1112 and 62% - 1108. Now all that talk about "falling" might be hogwash as we all know markets do not fall anymore. The 30 and 60m indicators on the minis are bottoming, but you know not to pay attention to those. The dailys are overbought and those are the indicators we're watching here. The C leg of the ABC formation for what I am calling 2.1.3 has completed 78.6% of A so there may be a little more room to climb. 1157 is where C=A.

Economic Calendar - Redbook at 8:55 and then some note auctions make for another quiet day. Tomorrow will be busy, but I am not seeing anything IMO that will cause the market to react to tomorrows news.

A year later - hogwash - a year from what? The time they decided to hand our country over to the blackmailers? I'll ask, has anything good happened other than them creating a false sense of recovery? You might be in store for a good rant today after I have been forced to listen to the MSM spew BS all day.

A quick look at the charts says - 60m SPX rolling over and creating (or continuing even longer) divergences. The weekly chart is showing early signs of cracking. MACD hist is almost positive (we need that for a top IMO). T Sto has a hook. RSI5 is hooking under its upper divergence line. The most interesting is SPXA50 is just under 400 and trying to turn. It like to run to 400 or above and then reverse. It has made it there.


SPX Daily Chart - Little red doji yesterday on uber-lite volume. Smacking the upper BB which should (theoretically) cause resistance. RSI5 is in the nosebleed section and possibly rolling over. RSI14 is right at it's upper divergence line. S Sto look to still have some strength. MACD hist has not turned yet. Those that know my calls, I will look for a combo of the hist turn with a S Sto bear cross. ADX is at a point it has reversed in the past. Bottom line is everyone is in place for a turn but S Sto. Keep an eye on it and remain patient. Some sort of correction is overdue, but how much is the question? Are we completing the corrective or is there one more wave up? I'll play it short with caution and go deep short at the top of wave 2 of the first move south.

Dollar - Range bound for the past few weeks. This is looking more like a corrective flag than the fall I want. If this is a 4 then much more strength can be expected. The daily S Sto got a bull cross yesterday and MACD hist is now turning up, so look out for more strength.
Oil - Daily chart looks pretty toppy. Weekly chart says it can still run, but it is setting a big divergence indicating this is possibly the last of the last for high priced oil (that fits nicely with my thoughts of an impending global economic collapse).
Gold - tough read here as it plays in what might be a corrective above support hanging in a range. Weeklys look weak and the dailys are overbought. I'll go for continued consolidation and then is the dollar rises and the market tanks then gold should fall as well. HERE is a vid from Market Club that I think is pretty good.Wath the use of their trade triangles - it is pretty good.
Natgas - 4.24 is the 50% retracement of the move off of 2.41. There is also support at that level. Daily indicators are embedded on the bottom and the weeklys are still trending down. Pop them more weakness is what I am looking for. that pop will be worth jumping on if you can time it right. Should be close. Natgas report is 10:30 Thursday am. I would not touch it till then.
EUR/USD - Weekly oversold and has completed a 61.8% retracement off of the March lows. It should rally from here. Not much, but it should according to TA. Thus the base. How this fits with the dollar and Greece and where they have to deflate currencies to does not fit. So, I am a little miffed at this pair's direction.

GL out there. I expect to be short before the day is over.

Morning Post

Its starting - University of California Campus Erupts In Riots; Student Loan Scam Drives Up Cost Of Education; Expect More Riots - They are coming. I do not watch the MSM anymore, so I do not know if these were covered or not. More on this and other things to come (nothing good of course) in the evening post.

Economic calendar - 3 and 6 month auction later today. Otherwise quiet.

Bent on manipulation should be the overriding theme of this market. If Rosie is right and the SPX is roughly 26% overvalued on a P/E basis, then these unprecedented pops are all that more impressive. The low volume trading is allowing the market makers little resistance to push it where they want it to go. I think, as a trader, you have to keep an open mind and stick with the trend. If you have not learned not to fight the trend by now, please leave the room now and do not return. You do not belong in the trenches trading these markets. The trend will turn. P3 will come. A massive meltdown/slaughter is coming, but it is obviously not here yet, so keep an open mind towards the current trend and NOT on what we all know is eventually coming.

OK, at least one blog I know of has been calling/warning of the possibility of a 5.3.5 move for at least two weeks. Who could that be? Hmmmm? I've been right on most of my calls all the way up leaning with the unexpected upside driven by manipulation and they did not disappoint me again last week. Why do you think I posted the weekly chart last week and asked you to heed its strength? Yes, I took some small short positions on Thursday, but was stopped out at the open on Friday. A turn is coming soon. Wait for it to come to you. I would not trust anything long here. This next move south should be pretty drastic I'm thinking.

SPX 60m -Have we learned out lesson of gauging market moves on the 60m indicators class? They are not reliable (at least not in a way they used to be). I warned you not to trust 'em. Yes, I shorted on what I thought was an overthrow of the triangle. It looked really good. Now if my I'm counting right were clearly in the C leg of an ABC move. I think we're finishing 3, but I can also count a 5 wave completing. The move actually measures best to a double top which will be fun to call. Keep an eye on the weekly indicators. This should be the final move for the bulls. Yes, those divergences are real and should put some pressure on the market (you'd think).

SPX Daily - Overbought and at the upper BB.
SPX Weekly - Still climbing. MACD hist has not gone positive. Bears may have to wait for a green candle there. RSI5 is just under it's divergence line. Let's see if that holds. S and F Sto are still in bull mode.

I'm expecting a correction soon, but I'm gonna look for a turn in the Weeklys to confirm any serious downside action. We've all seen the 30 and 60m cycle all around while the markets have continued to rise. We have also see the dailys remain embedded for what seemed to be improbable time frames. I'm back to watching the weeklys. Be patient. The turn will come. 

Dollar - I believe I was one of the only ones calling for the ABC corrective (with my alt scenario as a run to 89). I think the corrective has run it's course and a throw over of a wedge has occurred. If I am wrong it does a 30% retracement from the top here and then look for a C=A run to 89. The weeklys are topped and the dailys still have plenty of room to fall. I'm favoring more downside for some time.

Oil - Who the hell knows in the most manipulated market of them all? I think it is going to near $90 and I may be able to put a gate on the top if the trends continues. Look for a backtest of the initial channel off of the lows.

Natgas - It has gotten to weak to fast IMO. It is blowing out the bottom of it's down channel. The dailys are embedded oversold. Again I'll refer to the weekly indicators that say no big move up is coming. It may get a pop here soon, but don't expect much.

Gold - Dailys are toppy but the weeklys have some room to run. I'll speculate on a double top as it should have continued strength. Now, how it reacts to a market turn will be interesting. I'm not sure if it will inversely correlate with the expected weakness in the dollar, but the setup looks to be calling for that.

EUR/USD - The EUR is gonna get pounded eventually, but what isn't? The race for devaluation is in full force, but the EUR may have to pull into the pits for some fresh tires as it has completed a 61.8% retracement and seems to have found support. Might be time to the dollar to play catch up.

60m SPX And VIX Ending Triangles

Sorry I missed this morning. I'm not feeling all that well and slept in.

Here is a quick post that I will elaborate more on in the Morning Post tomorrow. Simple triangle formations ending on the SPX and VIX. Is this the end of 2 of 1 of 3 and we have a pretty strong 3rd wave down staring us in the face? All measurements at this time call for an initial drop to end near the last bottom at 1044.

SPX 60m - I am throwing out an expanded chart with the last triangle call that worked so well (that so few believed). That one took forever to happen as the throw over lasted almost three weeks. With this smaller triangle, I do not expect anything as drawn out, but am cautioning about the possibility of a throw over. I have not given up on my 5.3.5 fantasy call at this time (ending 1 of 5 here), but the indicators are saying this could be the top of this move (never discount the power of manipulation!). The daily's are toppy setting possible divergences, but they still have some room to run if they want.

VIX 60m -

GL!

Morning Post

Kind of quiet out there this morning, so you get lots of charts!

Economic Calendar - Consumer and investor confidence at 10:00

Earnings Calendar - Nothing huge bust worth a glance.

Emini 60m - What some are calling wave 1 down (blue) and wave 2 up (gray) are clearly seen here. The green diagonal line is the market support line going back to August. Notice how narrow the up channel is compared to the down channel and the decrease in volume with the upside move. Watch that green TL and the channel. If they crack I believe the bears will have the momo again.

SPX daily - Sorry to keep bringing you this chart over and over again, but it has kept me on the right side of the trade for some time now. The RSI 5 has finally crested and RSI may be rolling over. S Sto and  MACD hist have not confirmed anything yet. CCI and ADX are rolling over as well. We should be close given the indicator TL breaks on the 30 and 60m indicators. Another thing I will harp on is the green dashed bear market top TL. I assume this may be a magnet to any downside move and it is going to take a strong move by the bears to recapture it. (it can be seen on the weekly chart below as well.)

SPX Weekly - To me this chart says the market is confused somewhat. This may be the chart to watch to determine who really has the momo and if my thoughts of this being a 5.3.5 move are remotely possible versus the ending of a 2 corrective. Both RSIs have gone flat. MACD hist is moving up and has not gone positive. S Sto is in a bull formation still. Thus some confusion as two are saying up and two are saying caution. F Sto may be the one to watch as it looks to be rolling over and may be the first one here to confirm the trend change if we get one.

Gold - Fairly narrow trading range has developed since the beginning of the year (if you call 10% narrow). Look at the indicators. Topping and trending down. I'd look for the lower TL to be tested before any further strength (if there is any further strength).

Oil - Trending up in a large channel (yellow) and may be getting a little toppy. Nearing the 50% line of the channel with indicators kind of toppy, but still have room to run. There should be a lot of resistance in this area.

Dollar - My thoughts of a E throwover after completing and ABC corrective of the fall sho look good on this chart. It also makes sense if the whole world is going to be in a battle to devalue their currencies. The monthly dollar chart has this as the E of a larger A-E flag that should top at 89ish, thus I am somewhat torn on the call. The dollar has almost completed a 50% retracement of the fall and is at gap resistance.

Not gonna cover the currency pairs till I get them figured out. The drive for global devaluation can't work cause someone has to strengthen for someone to get weak. I assume we strengthen to assist everyone globally (and cause we have a bigger printing press) then later everyone collapses somehow. This is what has been happening recently and the trend may continue. Some are seeing the dollar in a big move up here. I do not think that is possible given the global dynamics (thus I think the EWT counts are wrong).

SPX should be about to roll over here and give the bears the momo for a little while. It does not look like a big 3 down is coming as should be expected by EWT, but you never know. Let's be patient and let the set up come to us.I assume i will be short somewhat (maybe 1/2 position) before the day is over.

GL today!

Morning Post

MCD and KO do well. Ignore them, cause all eyes are on the PIIGS and who else might be invited to play Default Dominoes.

I'm sticking that it all comes down to Greece, the other PIIGS and the EU. Nothing else really matters anymore. The focus is there. The only question is does the thief come in the middle of the night or during trading hours. How much of it is priced in?

The rumors and news surrounding Greece and the PIIGS are insane. Just how much of this is in the control of GS and not Trichet or any other fraudulent government money man.

What was up with the secretive banker meeting in Australia while the G7 was meeting on the other side of the world?

Earnings calendar -

Economic calendar -

E-mini 60m - Channeling down (Sky blue lines) after breaking the Green support line that held the market up since June. Reversing near the 38% retracement (yellow line at 1037) of the 862 low. The dailys as expected are pretty oversold and this mornings pop of 9.5 points is not surprising. Any good news will cause a thrust these days and the fact that things in Greece have calmed down somewhat is reason for the dip buyers to get active again.

SPX - I still contend it is fighting off the upper bear market TL. It tagged it again yesterday and reversed. Can it hold is yet to be seen. The daily indicators are struggling to gain ground and remain oversold. The RSI5 divergence tried to give way yesterday, but may be coming home to roost today based on the futures. 1085 is the max if we even get close to that. 1110 is the 68% retracement at this time and the 50 ma on the daily chart. It is only a matter of time before the collapse. As I mentioned earlier, will we wake up to it one morning or will it happen during trading hours.

Dollar - Is it having an overthrow of a wedge? It would be backtesting the upper TL right now if it is. Pretty overbought, but this will not mean anything if a flight to safety occurs. I also think there is a possibility that an ABC has completed, but looking at things politically I believe the rush to safety on an EU breakdown sends the dollar to 89. Then it crashes with everyone else.
Gold - Getting a nice pop this morning. It is oversold and might have a little upside left. A pop to the 1085 - 1090 range may be in order. There is upper channel resistance there.
Oil - Oversold and bouncing off of lower channel support. If this support cracks 65 and 59 would be likely stopping points. I called $55 months ago. That TL and target may have moved.
Natgas - Revesding off of the upper channel line, but at support. Indicators are mixed. So, /NG is in a very precarious spot. Charts are telling me there is confusion among the ng troops, that is usually not a good thing.
EUR/JPY and /USD recovered some yesterday and have been crushed over the past month. As correlated to the dollar, they look to have completed ABC correctives, but given the PIIGS situation, I have to expect worse. If this is a 5 wave move we are in 3 down and should be expecting a 3 of 3 soon.

GL out there.

Morning Post

It all depends on the PIIGS and whether some sort of default is being or has been priced into the markets as to how fast we fall from here. Greece appears to be toast and I'm not sure anyone is going to step up to the plate. If they save Greece, then who's next. they can't save them all. Someone will not have a chair when the music stops playing. It is only a matter of time before some massive meltdown of what I think will be the EU first, then over the next year or two we live in denial as regions begin to tumble one by one. I am becoming more afraid that war may be inevitable and the Mayan calendar may be deserving some merit. More on Greece here.

Economic calendar - Not much I see other than auctions will Wednesday

Earnings calendar - KO and PHM tomorrow. Still a full slate out there, but most of the notables have passed.

SPX daily - Where are we? We are somewhere in 3 of 1 I think.  This may possibly be 2 of 3 of 1. That was a nice pop late Friday that got back 38% of the fall from 1105. There is no question the daily chart remains oversold. I warned of the divergence on RSI 5 on Friday. That is the only thing that looks good on this chart right now. I did my best job a placing the bear market top TL on this chart cause I think it should have some bearing on the markets actions. (Looking at the chart it appears that Stockcharts has inconveniently moves the TL -they do that if you are not careful - It is close - I'll move it back later - just one of the many issues I have with them.)

SPX 60m - The last big pop was led by some huge divergences in RSI, MACD and ROC. Not this most recent one. You know I like to trade the daily indicators. The 60m Can be misleading at times. It appears a channel has formed. On this chart I give the possibility of SPX being in 2 of 1, but that is remote.

I'm expecting choppy to up trading for a few days with a high degree of risk for large downside moves. If we are in 3 of 1 then the third wave has not hit and that will be a ripper. Weekly RSI is at the 50 line just under the P2 support line. SPAX50 is about to hit 100 which has been an extreme oversold reversal area. The bear market top TL was pierced, but held. 960 to 940 is my preliminary target for the bottom of 1. The word of caution is that this puppy can reverse at any moment and very hard. What happens with the PIIGS is key. Let's see what the bulls have left in them. they may be at a point where they have to focus on saving just the banks and not the whole market.

Gold - At the 38% retracement and lower LT channel support line with the daily indicators oversold. 1020 is the next support level. I would not be surprised to see a pop from here to 1085. I expect further weakness as it may follow SPX or the inverse to the dollar (which may continue its rise sooner than later).
Dollar - Big gap at 81.27 up to the 50% retracement at 81.90. Might be in a over throw of a rising wedge and it is overbought.
Oil - Cracked the lower channel line on big volume. Daily it is oversold with everything else. Looking for consolidation or a slight pop.
Natgas - About the only thing that is moving up. Might be a bear flag, but the indicators look good. that could all change with supply though. Indicators say it can go higher.
EUR/JPY - Just got hammered last week. Very oversold.
EUR/USD - In the retracement zone and oversold.

GL!

The Wedge And The Target

On January 5th I first posted the chart with the rising wedge and a proposed target 1046.37. I think I got a few laughs if I am not mistaken. I continued to post the wedge and followed it thru the remaining climb and overthrow E touch and now present it again today. Sometimes these things stick out like a soar thumb and you can see 'em coming from a mile away. Thus, I always look for potential formations as early as possible in any move. It does not always work out, but when you get into a "what could it do" scenario and put the TL's on paper and then see it play out, it can be a beautiful thing. Now, lets see if this target can hold.

January 5th Post with potential target 1046.37.

Here is the chart today after adjusting the proposed target to an actual measurement 1056.38. It initially stopped at the horizontal target line, but continued to the measurement point this morning. Is that the end of 1? I'd also like to point out that it has completed a backtest of the upper TL of the initial formation down and may have completed a falling A-E wedge (better seen on INDU). RSI 5 may be setting a divergence on the daily chart. The fall may not stop here, but hey....(oh, and yes, I did call for "one more" higher high at the end of the wedge as well.) Just a little horn tooting. Feeling frisky today. Sorry. 

Morning Post

The reaction to the jobs report may be a big deal, but fear of sovereign default is what is rocking the markets from Gold to the indexes.Employment report down again. 9.7% unemployment. Revision was massive. Fewer jobs and unemployment rate drops? That is NOT good at all. They are dropping off the rolls left and right cause no jobs are out there. Not sure if the BIG revision will get much attention (You know, since the government decided that they have miscalculated unemployment by almost 2 MILLION). ZH provides a deeper look into unemployment here. NSA U-6 is now at a record 18%.

I need to update a bunch of charts and get some good information out to you all, so look for a lot of updates thru the weekend.

Economic Calendar - Consumer credit at 3:00 and Timmahh speaks again today.

E-mini 60m -Still in the blue channel down. I'll point out the lower yellow TL that was tagged this am and the market reversed off of it. the Yellow horizontal line it the 38% retracement. The futures hit a low of 1050.5 this am and have rebounded massively to 1063 at this time (it was at 1055 since I started writing here - now back to 1057). 1013 is the next major support level. The backtest of the bear market upper TL is somewhere near 1020 at this time.That may be the spot that ends 1. I would not be surprised to see a backtest of the broken green support line near 1085. That may end 2. Then 3 down with the authority to crash back thru the upper bear market TL.

SPX 60m - Is this 2 of 1? Are we still in 3? Is this 4? Was that 5? LOL, bottom line is the indicators and market are oversold. the weekly RSI crossed my dreaded P3 tl and even got under 50 briefly yesterday. Not often I post a count, but here is a shot at it. Although the market is tearing north at this time the market is skating on thin ice. At this point any gains can and will be taken back very quickly from here on out. Sustained gains will be few and far between.  I would like to point out the possibility of a H&S (see red neckline) worth about 35 points. If it should form a right shoulder and reverse keep an eye on that to get a target.I forgot to mention the backtest of the black dashed TL that was th top TL of the original fall.

Gold - I was calling 1066 as the support. It fell hard and stopped at 1059 yesterday, so I will take that. AH it tanked again with the futures to 1051, but had found new life and has rallied back 14 to 1064. Not positive if it will find resistance at this level or not. It will find resistance at 1077 for sure.
Oil - If you go back a few posts you'll find an oil chart. It fell right to the lower channel line and stopped like a bug on a windshield at 72.42. If it cracks the channel,  69 then 65 are the support levels. I do not think it sets any more higher highs, but that is up to the manipulators of black gold to determine.
Natgas - At upper channel resistance with bullish indicators on the daily chart. Looks to be in a mini channel up. Might be a corrective move.
Dollar - Took out the 38% retracement at 80.09 and is sitting on it right now. Might have also experienced a throwover of a rising wedge. Daily indicators overbought. If it was an ABC corrective that may have been it cause C is close to A and the 38% retracement has been hit. I still like 89 as the target.
EUR/USD - experiencing a throwunder of a falling wedge and has gone beyond a 50% retracement of the whole correction. EUR/JPY is way oversold.

Somehow the fear left the market this morning in a hurry. It looks like the currency corrections are overdue and I believe they will lead the markets back up for a period of time. As I mentioned, the market is on thin ice and can literally collapse at any time. All it takes is for one sovereign default and kaboom. I am still riding some shorts that I took most the profit on yesterday late. Not sure if I play long or not.

Geaux Colts - LOL - don't care who wins, I just want a good game. Saturday night at Daytona baby! NASCAR is back! Gotta love it.

Two more registered followers and I crack triple digits. Anyone care to sign up and make that happen?

Have a good weekend.

Morning Post

Another 480,000 lost. When do you think this "norm" will finally catch up with us? Wait till you see the Explaining The Government's 1.8 Million Job Overestimation In Pictures. Did you catch that headline - 1.8 MILLION OVERESTIMATION! I tell you day after day that they are full of shit and you can't trust a damn thing out of them. So we're gonna have a "slight" adjustment that is going to ADD ONE MILLION people previously unaccounted for to the jobless. Does anyone really know the truth? It will implode and it will not be pretty.

Economic calendar - nothing big

Earnings Calendar - Jobs reports and a bunch of other fictitious numbers will be released today.

SPX Daily - Bears came back as expected yesterday. Jobs number sank the futures. The question is are we in 3 of 1 (the major leg down) or is this still the B leg of the corrective. The thought that this could be one last B down of P2 is fading fast. GS and the boys would have to pull their 1,000th rabbit out of the hat and I believe they are out of rabbits. All we can do it wait and see at this point. Lets look to see if it gets to 1087 support. I'm in cash.






Gold - Met the upper TL and reversed. Daily indicators are a little out of whack but are more bullish than bearish. 1066 is massive support. I believe the 1000 level holds for a long time.
Oil - Pulled back yesterday on the numbers. I think this is a corrective and another buying opp will be soon.
Natgas - trending down and it will continue.
Dollar - Popping into an overbought situation. It will need a correction sooner than later.

I'm getting worried. My gut bearometer is spiking. Really not comfortable with the global situation. The dominoes start to fall soon I'm afraid.We'll see this in 3 of 1 of 1 soon and then the fun begins.

GL out there.

Morning Post

National signing day! OK, I am a college football fan of massive proportions. You should be as well. Good luck to your team today. The SEC dominates again with 4 of the top 5 classes. More on this after the bell.

PFE totally got it backwards. Make the revenues and miss the number is not the way to do it these days. What in the world does revenue have to do with anything? I hate tend busters.

Earnings calendar - Most of the market movers are thru now. CSCO after the bell today.

Economic calendar - EIA Petroleum report at 10:30. Timmaah speaks somewhere today I think. ADP is out and we have fewer jobs. The BLS fictional report comes out tomorrow.

Minis are down slightly. May have completed A wave of the correction. Bumped it's head on an upper TL yesterday late. I'm speculating on a slight pullback before more strength. Possibly 1080 area or at least a sideways consolidation before moving on up.

SPX daily - All the 10-60m charts are ready to turn south or are topping as the daily is just really now getting geared up for a move north. Thus, I think we are in the B wave of the 2nd wave corrective. This will provide a risky short play (cause it could just consolidate here and move sideways) before further strength. I have a max low of 1087 and max high in the 1115 to 1120 range. Lots of green circles on that chart below. Be patient. The orange dashed line is a possible path.

Oil - As prognosticated, the rise is on. Petrol report has to say at 10:30. 60m headed south, so I may wait to add when that turns.
Dollar - After trending down for 3 days, something happened at 4:00 this morning that caused it to reverse up pretty hard. Sorry, do not know what that was at this time. Must be Greece.
Natgas - I updated the UNG section last night. It does not look good. Should turn south soon. 
Gold - At a upper downtrend line that should cause some resistance up, but the dailys indicate more strength after this pullback. Possible breakout setup? Hmmm...

GL out there. Down slightly then up. How much up is the big question. I'd hate to see the EWTres eat another top call.

Morning Post

Good morning. Futures are up a smidge (2.50 at this time). They have pulled back 4 points off of the 1092 high. The minis and SPX are dancing to a different band right now. The minis have broken their major top tl and have broken back above the market support line gong back to June. This should have been a brick wall, but was not. Let's see what happens in the 1104 area if it can get there.

Earnings calendar - AFL goes after hrs today (that would be a hometown ex-employer of yours truly) with MET and TSO. In the am we have PFE, SGP and TWX as a few bigger names roll thru.

Economic calendar - Timmaaaah gets grilled at 10:00 for the next three days. Pending home sales at 10:00 as well.

SPX daily has almost confirmed a st trend change. ADX and a couple others are not at the party yet, but the main playas are there and it should not be long till it gets going. The base at the 61.8% retracement f the run from 1028 is another positive development. Cracking 1087 resistance in the last few minutes yesterday opened the door to 1103. I got a 1/2 position yesterday in SSO.

The chart I share this morning is the Dollar Triangle. Your thoughts would be appreciated. Remember, you saw it here first (well, maybe not, but I have not seen it anywhere else). Looks a lot like P1 doesn't it? This is part of the reason I am looking for an ABC and not a 5 wave move here. My target calls for an over throw of the triangle sometime next year.Of course it is possible that the 40ma throws it back down here and it just runs to new lows. Remember I am pretty biased towards a very weak dollar.

Dollar - topping nt on the daily indicators. It needs a breather. Support at 78.
Gold - Approaching an upper TL that might slow it down some, but I think it is in an ABC wave 2 corrective that might throw it up to the 1150 to 1175 range. Dailys are oversold and turning.
Natgas -  Channeling down but may be oversold somewhat and might pop based on the daily MACD and possible S Sto bull cross.
ERU/JPY - Should reverse here for a pop. Really oversold.
EUR/USD - Looks like a throw under of a falling wedge in oversold conditions stopping just above a 50% retracement. If it does continue to fall 1.3755 should be the max.
Oil - At support and oversold. I'd look at playing a reversal here. USO or OIL might be worth looking into. Do your homework and use stops. Inventory data comes at 4:30 later today.

I'm looking for more upside today and thru the rest of the week. Maybe 1 is complete (if it was a 1). The dollar looks like it is going to confirm the move and remain in concert with the indexes. I'm long 1/2 SSO and looking to add to it and possibly some TNA for the short pop.

Have a good one!

Morning Post

Good morning. I hope you had a good weekend. Getting this week cranked up early with the futures up over 6 points on the minis. After Fridays sell off and given the overbought conditions, the buyers had to show up sooner or later. Question is, how long will they hang around? Friday's dramatic reversal was a sign of things to come as I believe you have to begin viewing the market as having more downside potential/risk than upside as the tide has most likely turned.

Earnings calendar -Tomorrow is a bigger day as we get into the energy sector.

Economic calendar - Mfg index and construction spending today along with a treasury auction (3 and 6mo)

SPX daily - Remember, the market does not "have to" do anything, looks can be deceiving and beauty is only skin deep. SPX has completed a 61.8% retracement of the rise off of 1028. S Sto is embedding, RSI is at 33.3, The gap on MACD is huge (8pts) and the hist has not turned, ADX is doing it's best Letterman impersonation showing a huge gap, and other indicators are showing similar characteristics. The lower BB is getting abused again. At this time I believe a correction is overdue and downside should be limited simply because of oversold conditions and some divergences on shorter time frames. 1055 is my max downside at this time and if it turns I'm looking at 1101 as the first target and then the gap at 1115. I do not see it moving over the 1131 level at all, but with this market you never know.

Gold - 1066 level has all kinds of support. I do not think this is the time to jump in even though it is pretty oversold.
Dollar - Continues strengthening. Over $5 move in DXY since 11/23 (7%). It is getting overbought but might have a little room to run yet.
Oil -  Sitting on support and the 23.6% retracement (I'll give you charts on all these tomorrow) and it is oversold. This one may warrant some buying attention at this level.
Natgas - Broke TL and support and is channeling down with a short series of lower lows and lower highs. 4.67 is the 38% retracement. It is at 5.13 now.
EUR/JPY -  124.37 is the next support point (and that is a weak one). When it took out 126 that should have been it. Channeling south. Support has now become resistance.
EUR/USD - 139.17 below the 140 Mendoza line. 138 to 135 is the 50 to 61% retracement zone. 136 is where C=A is this is a corrective. If it is a major wave we're in a 3 south.

GL out there!

Rorschach Revisited - A Helicopter?

Johnny, what do you you make of this? Looks like the market picked the wrong week to quit hopium. Anyway, the Rhorschach inkblot says the correlation between the dollar and the markets may be alive and well. I don't know bout you but it looks like a helicopter dropping money to me.

Morning Post

Minis up 5 and climbing. Boy does CNBS have the cheerleaders out this am touting growth and prosperity. sounds good if you are a moron. Remember they are salesmen, not prophets. What's that saying about lipstick on a pig (all except Becky of course)? Our first morning with Benjamin back at the helm for another four years looks to be getting off to a prosperous start. I guess the markets take to the idea of furthering the reflation trade.

E-mini 60m - That green support line going back to June was unexpectedly tested again. That was the missing 5th wave I am suspecting. I was a day early jumping into the small long position, but that is fine. Got out with small gain and now ready to reload again. Let's see what happens at the 50% line in the sky blue channel and then at the top of it as well. The yellow wedge target is just outside the top of the blue channel near 1123. Resistance at 1103, 1112 and then up around 1127 should be your stopping points and then the retracements are 38% 1101, 50% 1109 and 62% 1117. I believe a base has been built and I'm not looking down (yet).

SPX 60m - Now you know why I like the daily indicators to trade off of. Take a peek at the divergences here and see how ineffective they have been to this point. Sure, they are screaming a turn is coming but not the tradeable point of the market. This is a good chart to see the fibs, s/r and the trend.









Gold - Is about to bottom out and reverse I think. Within $20 of the 38% retracement and double converging channel support. Might be time to buy some more tungsten gold soon. $1066 is the 38% retracement. When that eventually cracks, 1020 is the next stopping point.
Oil - As I showed in the chart yesterday am, oil is at lower channel support completing a 23.6 retracement at $71.60. Daily S Sto bull cross and divergence in RSI may mean the bottom is in.
Dollar - Sister Christian is "Motorin" right on up the charts in what I am calling the 3 of C of the ABC correction.
Natgas - support has cracked and a lower low has been set. It may be channeling down and might be time for a small pop after giving up over a dollar (down 15%) in the past few weeks.
EUR/USD - still beow 1.40 and looks like it will get even weaker if the dollar is gonna continue Motorin.
EUR/JPY - Finally took out the LT support level of 126.71. 124.24 is the next level. It may be channeling down.

GL out there. GDP is strong like bull! (like bullshit if you ask me). Keep on playing their game, cause you can't beat 'em. I'm looking for a corrective to begin soon. My daily chart has not given a buy signal yet. the MACD hist reversal yesterday really pissed me off. That and the S Sto cross looked good, but as I noted RSI and a few other factors were not there. They will be soon I believe.

Have a great weekend.