60m SPX And VIX Ending Triangles

Sorry I missed this morning. I'm not feeling all that well and slept in.

Here is a quick post that I will elaborate more on in the Morning Post tomorrow. Simple triangle formations ending on the SPX and VIX. Is this the end of 2 of 1 of 3 and we have a pretty strong 3rd wave down staring us in the face? All measurements at this time call for an initial drop to end near the last bottom at 1044.

SPX 60m - I am throwing out an expanded chart with the last triangle call that worked so well (that so few believed). That one took forever to happen as the throw over lasted almost three weeks. With this smaller triangle, I do not expect anything as drawn out, but am cautioning about the possibility of a throw over. I have not given up on my 5.3.5 fantasy call at this time (ending 1 of 5 here), but the indicators are saying this could be the top of this move (never discount the power of manipulation!). The daily's are toppy setting possible divergences, but they still have some room to run if they want.

VIX 60m -

GL!

Morning Post

I hope you had a good weekend. 11 days to Christmas. More importantly 17 till 2010 where I believe the action begins. Dubai gets bailed out and thus saves CITI's (and the global financial system) butt. So, you can say we dodged a huge bullet there. I'm not sure what will happen with volume this week. Maybe the holiday volume started three weeks early?

Some have asked why I have stopped giving targets? Well, first they are all in the charts via fibs, S/R lines, BB's, gaps and  trendlines. Second, when the market is range bound line this and is lacking clear direction there is no point. Since I do not trade 1 and 2% moves, I do not see a need to slap a fib on every squiggle. Now I do have 1, 5, and 15m charts that I try to keep updated in the chartbook for a greater drill down if you like. I have also been asked about my EWT count. LOL - I'm not even sure if EWI has a count nor if the good Lord could count this mess. I think we're in the last wave up with a possible 1214 top target or we are in a topping process. I'm just gonna wait for it to blow out the end of the barrel and get some clear direction. Then I'll start counting again.

SPX daily - Someone wanted a daily chart, so here it is. I can not make this one say go down like the 15m I posted yesterday, but it does say the bulls are very weak and the bears can't get their act together. First note all the support under price. I count 9 support points from 1064 up. Next note the narrow BB's. Anything below 60 has created volatility and with them sitting at 29 something should be about to pop. RSI now has 3 separate divergence lines and has been trading between them and the 50 line for a month. The red line is cracking and a push to the blue line may be in order, but the upper BB may have something to say about that. S Sto got a bull cross Friday, but it never made it to being oversold and is right under TL.

SPX 60m - MACD hist does not look good. S Sto overbought. This chart looks toppy, but you know I do not thrust or trade on the 60m and find it highly unreliable. It does say toppy though. Notice the group of gaps on the upswings between 1090 and 1100. Something (?) is protection that 1088 price level. If that cracks, there is not much below it to keep the market from going straight to 1030.

DXY 60m - For all the bearish angles I tried to take above, if the dollar and the markets decide to resume their dance, this rising wedge should be viewed as potentially bullish near term for the markets. One thing that I am speculating about is that they are going to keep the $ in a range and use it to prop up the markets. Let it breathe and then deflate it. Although the dollar has decidedly bottomed for now (according to the TA I see) and broken out of its LT falling wedge, they may drag it out down here for a while.

Oil daily - goes under $70 and cracks a level I was not ready for it to violate. I thought the yellow channel would hold. Let's see what happens at support at $65.

EUR/USD daily - The breakdown continues. I'm not sure if the dashed gray TL holds here or not. Let's see what happens at the $1.44 level.







VIX - Needs to hold the lower TL near 21.
EUR/JPY - wedging down with support at $126.71.
Gold - Still in the channel down. but may be nearing a pop point as I mentioned last week.
Natgas - Looking to see any reaction to the XOM deal.

Morning Post

Running a little late so it has to be a quickie.

SPX 60m - See the red TL? Break that with some conviction and set a lower low and we'll get a full frontal bear move. Till then that range in the red diagonal is still in play. I do not believe the top TL will be tested again (that is not saying I have called a top - which 1119 was most likely it at this point). 60m indicators still have a little room to fall and there are no divergences to speak of to price at this time signaling a turn up. 

SPX daily - Whether the TL's and labels are right or wrong (this is a chart I play with), you can not argue with the divergences to price in the indicators and the interaction with the upper bear market TL and the 50% fib retracement.  See the red box? Taht is a lot of nasty stuff in there that does not look good for the bulls. I do like that target in the circle. Those should look familiar from the SPX channels I showed yesterday.

VIX daily - I think the VIX has bottomed based on the action of price and it's relation the the 50 and 100ma. The blue boxes tell a good story. It can't hold a break above the ma's. When the 50 crosses the 100 the bears party will be on. No telling how long that will take, but with them less than 6 points apart it may not take long. The indicators are mixed, but favor a bullish move here for the VIX.





It is a  tough call here. We are near the TL of what has been a really choppy market for three weeks and they may force it back up here some. I think the bulls have lost their mojo and the top is most likely in, but that is not a call (you can't go against the PPT). Odds are good that we stay range bound till the EOY. Bottom line is the divergences on the daily and weekly charts with the price action say loud and clear the bulls have had their run. Now we have to wait patiently for the selling to commence.

GL and happy holidays.

I'll be doing some more daily posts on other stuff so look for them.