Showing posts with label daily chart. Show all posts
Showing posts with label daily chart. Show all posts
Sunday, January 31, 2010
How Is Your Short ETF Performing?
Are you a leader or a follower? Will the followers catch up or under perform? Here is a sampling of a few The TL and fibs are kind of an average (ball parked) for you to see. I'm not surprised to have seen the deep pullback in SKF (the only one that really made any effort). With the emerging markets strength and then China's news, I'm not surprised to see EEV in the lead. I am surprised to see SRS the laggard. That one should be in the lead, but maybe it is just not time yet. I'm planning on making a mint in SRS this year. I guess we'll just have to be patient and wait. Be careful with these. They can bite.
Thursday, January 7, 2010
Morning Post
If this sucker is gonna go up we've got to figure out where it is going, if it is going and how high. First let me state that I know (and hope you do to) that this market and the global financial system will collapse one day this year IMO. I'll not rehash all the reasons now cause I believe most of you know why. What we have to do is keep our eye on the ball and not let our overriding assumptions cloud the current market forecast. You do not want to be a bear sitting there with your thumb up an inappropriate place
I'm sticking with my recent posts that there is a triangle finishing here and we're going to have a correction, but will there be an overthrow of the triangle? I am nervous that even though the charts say overbought and unrealistic, there could be a mini-rally of some sort if the employment numbers come in better than expected. Look, they are manufacturing this rally. That is the only thing being manufactured in the states right now. It is our number one component of the whole economy (well besides monetization). They manufacture everything and tell you the truth about nothing.
CNBS did a wonderful job of pumping the "bright"side of the numbers being only slightly worse and yet you would have thought they were a dramatic improvement. LIEsman took the easy way out and was almost apologetic (probably cause he knows he'll get grilled on ZH) in the fact that he could not immediately break down the numbers and tell you the truth behind them. Maybe Comcast is on it's way to needing some TARP funds as well and is keeping the mantra of government/recovery cheerleader alive and well.
SPX daily -Upper BB and resistance inside almost all the indicators make this probable pop even more unrealistic. Remember, this is not any normal market. It is controlled and thus will do whatever they want it to. Do they let it breathe a little? The charts say it is time for a turn if not over due. MACD cracking the divergence line. RSI at divergence. S Sto embedding and topping again. CCI has set a pretty short divergence. Everything points down here, but for some reason my gut does not like it. The muted reaction to the jobs numbers this am helps along with the overbought conditions and resistance. Maybe it will do what it is supposed to, but my gut is telling me to be careful here.
Folks, don't listen to the BS being spewed on the MSM by the talking heads. Things are dire and NOT going to get better. The problems we are all facing are enormous. Remember that the market is corrupt and that there is no more randomness about the random walk theory. That said, you have to be willing to be open minded to the moves either way and not so entrenched in one belief or another. I personally think earnings season will possibly be good for the market. Bears be patient. Your time will come, but till then be open minded.
I'll be back later with more detailed looks into Gold, Natgas, oil and a few other things.
GL
I'm sticking with my recent posts that there is a triangle finishing here and we're going to have a correction, but will there be an overthrow of the triangle? I am nervous that even though the charts say overbought and unrealistic, there could be a mini-rally of some sort if the employment numbers come in better than expected. Look, they are manufacturing this rally. That is the only thing being manufactured in the states right now. It is our number one component of the whole economy (well besides monetization). They manufacture everything and tell you the truth about nothing.
CNBS did a wonderful job of pumping the "bright"side of the numbers being only slightly worse and yet you would have thought they were a dramatic improvement. LIEsman took the easy way out and was almost apologetic (probably cause he knows he'll get grilled on ZH) in the fact that he could not immediately break down the numbers and tell you the truth behind them. Maybe Comcast is on it's way to needing some TARP funds as well and is keeping the mantra of government/recovery cheerleader alive and well.
SPX daily -Upper BB and resistance inside almost all the indicators make this probable pop even more unrealistic. Remember, this is not any normal market. It is controlled and thus will do whatever they want it to. Do they let it breathe a little? The charts say it is time for a turn if not over due. MACD cracking the divergence line. RSI at divergence. S Sto embedding and topping again. CCI has set a pretty short divergence. Everything points down here, but for some reason my gut does not like it. The muted reaction to the jobs numbers this am helps along with the overbought conditions and resistance. Maybe it will do what it is supposed to, but my gut is telling me to be careful here.
Folks, don't listen to the BS being spewed on the MSM by the talking heads. Things are dire and NOT going to get better. The problems we are all facing are enormous. Remember that the market is corrupt and that there is no more randomness about the random walk theory. That said, you have to be willing to be open minded to the moves either way and not so entrenched in one belief or another. I personally think earnings season will possibly be good for the market. Bears be patient. Your time will come, but till then be open minded.
I'll be back later with more detailed looks into Gold, Natgas, oil and a few other things.
GL
Thursday, December 17, 2009
UNG Popping
Tough call on UNG here. I was obviously wrong on my read this am that "Natgas is topping I think - It is at resistance at least and struggling to get any higher. The turbo boost it got this week from the XOM deal may need to be corrected some." Well. it simply blew thru resistance this am. I was looking for a little consolidation, but they thought differently.
UNG daily - I was a few days off and a few pennies short on my target, but overall very close (that was made in a 12/10 post you can see here). Does the upper TL hold and where does it go from here? It appears to want to be holding based on the spike thru it at this time (Note - it has not cracked this upper TL like this before). The break of the 65ma and a run to the TL has been the MO thus far. The completed 62% retracement and the topping of the 30 and 60m chart indicators look like some resistance is in place here. The daily indicators look to have a little room to run other than a topping S Sto.
The weekly chart may tell the best story. This is as bullish as it has looked in a long time. Clear breakouts of all the indicators. If price can get thru the 20ma and the upper TL, this may be the pop we all have been looking for. See the resistance points for the many targets that lie above if it should pop here. Folks this weekly chart is the main reason I have remained so bearish on UNG for so long. Now these breakouts give me some real hope for more upside. If the 20ma and TL hold, it may be the same old story so keep your stops close. Remember, there is no real reason to be bullish on a price rise other than an artificial shortage created by massive cuts in production.
Do your own homework on this one. Relying on TA alone is not enough as futures pricing really controls the price. I will say the weekly indicators look more bullish now than they have in a long time. this does not mean the volatility is gone, but possibly the bottom is in. Please refer to the EIA site here for a bunch of good info on NATGAS.
I am long a 15% position in UNG.
UNG daily - I was a few days off and a few pennies short on my target, but overall very close (that was made in a 12/10 post you can see here). Does the upper TL hold and where does it go from here? It appears to want to be holding based on the spike thru it at this time (Note - it has not cracked this upper TL like this before). The break of the 65ma and a run to the TL has been the MO thus far. The completed 62% retracement and the topping of the 30 and 60m chart indicators look like some resistance is in place here. The daily indicators look to have a little room to run other than a topping S Sto.
I am long a 15% position in UNG.
Monday, December 14, 2009
Morning Post
I hope you had a good weekend. 11 days to Christmas. More importantly 17 till 2010 where I believe the action begins. Dubai gets bailed out and thus saves CITI's (and the global financial system) butt. So, you can say we dodged a huge bullet there. I'm not sure what will happen with volume this week. Maybe the holiday volume started three weeks early?
Some have asked why I have stopped giving targets? Well, first they are all in the charts via fibs, S/R lines, BB's, gaps and trendlines. Second, when the market is range bound line this and is lacking clear direction there is no point. Since I do not trade 1 and 2% moves, I do not see a need to slap a fib on every squiggle. Now I do have 1, 5, and 15m charts that I try to keep updated in the chartbook for a greater drill down if you like. I have also been asked about my EWT count. LOL - I'm not even sure if EWI has a count nor if the good Lord could count this mess. I think we're in the last wave up with a possible 1214 top target or we are in a topping process. I'm just gonna wait for it to blow out the end of the barrel and get some clear direction. Then I'll start counting again.
SPX daily - Someone wanted a daily chart, so here it is. I can not make this one say go down like the 15m I posted yesterday, but it does say the bulls are very weak and the bears can't get their act together. First note all the support under price. I count 9 support points from 1064 up. Next note the narrow BB's. Anything below 60 has created volatility and with them sitting at 29 something should be about to pop. RSI now has 3 separate divergence lines and has been trading between them and the 50 line for a month. The red line is cracking and a push to the blue line may be in order, but the upper BB may have something to say about that. S Sto got a bull cross Friday, but it never made it to being oversold and is right under TL.
SPX 60m - MACD hist does not look good. S Sto overbought. This chart looks toppy, but you know I do not thrust or trade on the 60m and find it highly unreliable. It does say toppy though. Notice the group of gaps on the upswings between 1090 and 1100. Something (?) is protection that 1088 price level. If that cracks, there is not much below it to keep the market from going straight to 1030.
DXY 60m - For all the bearish angles I tried to take above, if the dollar and the markets decide to resume their dance, this rising wedge should be viewed as potentially bullish near term for the markets. One thing that I am speculating about is that they are going to keep the $ in a range and use it to prop up the markets. Let it breathe and then deflate it. Although the dollar has decidedly bottomed for now (according to the TA I see) and broken out of its LT falling wedge, they may drag it out down here for a while.
Oil daily - goes under $70 and cracks a level I was not ready for it to violate. I thought the yellow channel would hold. Let's see what happens at support at $65.
EUR/USD daily - The breakdown continues. I'm not sure if the dashed gray TL holds here or not. Let's see what happens at the $1.44 level.
VIX - Needs to hold the lower TL near 21.
EUR/JPY - wedging down with support at $126.71.
Gold - Still in the channel down. but may be nearing a pop point as I mentioned last week.
Natgas - Looking to see any reaction to the XOM deal.
Some have asked why I have stopped giving targets? Well, first they are all in the charts via fibs, S/R lines, BB's, gaps and trendlines. Second, when the market is range bound line this and is lacking clear direction there is no point. Since I do not trade 1 and 2% moves, I do not see a need to slap a fib on every squiggle. Now I do have 1, 5, and 15m charts that I try to keep updated in the chartbook for a greater drill down if you like. I have also been asked about my EWT count. LOL - I'm not even sure if EWI has a count nor if the good Lord could count this mess. I think we're in the last wave up with a possible 1214 top target or we are in a topping process. I'm just gonna wait for it to blow out the end of the barrel and get some clear direction. Then I'll start counting again.
SPX daily - Someone wanted a daily chart, so here it is. I can not make this one say go down like the 15m I posted yesterday, but it does say the bulls are very weak and the bears can't get their act together. First note all the support under price. I count 9 support points from 1064 up. Next note the narrow BB's. Anything below 60 has created volatility and with them sitting at 29 something should be about to pop. RSI now has 3 separate divergence lines and has been trading between them and the 50 line for a month. The red line is cracking and a push to the blue line may be in order, but the upper BB may have something to say about that. S Sto got a bull cross Friday, but it never made it to being oversold and is right under TL.
SPX 60m - MACD hist does not look good. S Sto overbought. This chart looks toppy, but you know I do not thrust or trade on the 60m and find it highly unreliable. It does say toppy though. Notice the group of gaps on the upswings between 1090 and 1100. Something (?) is protection that 1088 price level. If that cracks, there is not much below it to keep the market from going straight to 1030.
DXY 60m - For all the bearish angles I tried to take above, if the dollar and the markets decide to resume their dance, this rising wedge should be viewed as potentially bullish near term for the markets. One thing that I am speculating about is that they are going to keep the $ in a range and use it to prop up the markets. Let it breathe and then deflate it. Although the dollar has decidedly bottomed for now (according to the TA I see) and broken out of its LT falling wedge, they may drag it out down here for a while.
Oil daily - goes under $70 and cracks a level I was not ready for it to violate. I thought the yellow channel would hold. Let's see what happens at support at $65.
EUR/USD daily - The breakdown continues. I'm not sure if the dashed gray TL holds here or not. Let's see what happens at the $1.44 level.
VIX - Needs to hold the lower TL near 21.
EUR/JPY - wedging down with support at $126.71.
Gold - Still in the channel down. but may be nearing a pop point as I mentioned last week.
Natgas - Looking to see any reaction to the XOM deal.
Wednesday, December 9, 2009
Morning Post
Running a little late so it has to be a quickie.
SPX 60m - See the red TL? Break that with some conviction and set a lower low and we'll get a full frontal bear move. Till then that range in the red diagonal is still in play. I do not believe the top TL will be tested again (that is not saying I have called a top - which 1119 was most likely it at this point). 60m indicators still have a little room to fall and there are no divergences to speak of to price at this time signaling a turn up.
SPX daily - Whether the TL's and labels are right or wrong (this is a chart I play with), you can not argue with the divergences to price in the indicators and the interaction with the upper bear market TL and the 50% fib retracement. See the red box? Taht is a lot of nasty stuff in there that does not look good for the bulls. I do like that target in the circle. Those should look familiar from the SPX channels I showed yesterday.
VIX daily - I think the VIX has bottomed based on the action of price and it's relation the the 50 and 100ma. The blue boxes tell a good story. It can't hold a break above the ma's. When the 50 crosses the 100 the bears party will be on. No telling how long that will take, but with them less than 6 points apart it may not take long. The indicators are mixed, but favor a bullish move here for the VIX.
It is a tough call here. We are near the TL of what has been a really choppy market for three weeks and they may force it back up here some. I think the bulls have lost their mojo and the top is most likely in, but that is not a call (you can't go against the PPT). Odds are good that we stay range bound till the EOY. Bottom line is the divergences on the daily and weekly charts with the price action say loud and clear the bulls have had their run. Now we have to wait patiently for the selling to commence.
GL and happy holidays.
I'll be doing some more daily posts on other stuff so look for them.
SPX 60m - See the red TL? Break that with some conviction and set a lower low and we'll get a full frontal bear move. Till then that range in the red diagonal is still in play. I do not believe the top TL will be tested again (that is not saying I have called a top - which 1119 was most likely it at this point). 60m indicators still have a little room to fall and there are no divergences to speak of to price at this time signaling a turn up.
SPX daily - Whether the TL's and labels are right or wrong (this is a chart I play with), you can not argue with the divergences to price in the indicators and the interaction with the upper bear market TL and the 50% fib retracement. See the red box? Taht is a lot of nasty stuff in there that does not look good for the bulls. I do like that target in the circle. Those should look familiar from the SPX channels I showed yesterday.
VIX daily - I think the VIX has bottomed based on the action of price and it's relation the the 50 and 100ma. The blue boxes tell a good story. It can't hold a break above the ma's. When the 50 crosses the 100 the bears party will be on. No telling how long that will take, but with them less than 6 points apart it may not take long. The indicators are mixed, but favor a bullish move here for the VIX.
It is a tough call here. We are near the TL of what has been a really choppy market for three weeks and they may force it back up here some. I think the bulls have lost their mojo and the top is most likely in, but that is not a call (you can't go against the PPT). Odds are good that we stay range bound till the EOY. Bottom line is the divergences on the daily and weekly charts with the price action say loud and clear the bulls have had their run. Now we have to wait patiently for the selling to commence.
GL and happy holidays.
I'll be doing some more daily posts on other stuff so look for them.
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