Morning Post, SPX, S&P 500, E-mini

Happy tax day! Please donate generously! Sadly your refund may not be in the form of cash. Wouldn't it be nice if we could pay them with IOU's. You better enjoy this one cause next year is really gonna suck (well, if you still have a job and are actually making any money)..

Jobless jumps, but thank goodness only another 424 thousand lost their jobs. Man, it could be a lot worse. This is great news. you know that at this rate by the end of the year averaging this same number only a few million more will be out of work. CNBC, if you are listening, as soon as Santeli was done speaking after the number was announced I turned your crap show off.


Earnings Calendar - GOOG after the close. BAC and GE before the open tomorrow

Economic Calendar - Jobs, worse than expected and knocked the minis down 3 to 1202.5. Huge day with many announcements including Philly Fed at 10, Natgas at 10:30 and housing market index at 1.

Pivot Points - Know 'em.

Well, you know what I think.Can they continue to pull rabbits out of the hat? The minis are set for their standard gap down open with the 30m working off being oversold. The minis and most indexes took out their upper resistance lines for the bull market corrective yesterday. You rarely hear anyone bitch about a market going up, but if they don't let this thing breathe soon, you might hear a little uproar. I guess they really don't give a shit. They have proven that they have the ability to take every bubble to the extremes and they are doing the same here. All hail the mighty bonus! To hell with the country, I need a third house in the Hamptons.

Not sure I can add anything to the post from the close yesterday, so if you want to see a chart or two, scroll down. If something should happen I'll be screaming and posting.

I'll add my 30m SPX. I bark about the 30m minis and the 30m SPX quite a bit. This is my main trading chart. SSO up and SDS down. I'll be waiting on the MACD to cross. I like the black TL at 83 as a target if it gets thru the red support line.The key is to remember to buy at the bottoms! Gotta play it both ways.

As a disclaimer, nothing is fool proof. Do your own homework. Always use stops and have a set trading plan. This system works for me, but things change and time frames and signals don't always work (see the daily chart LOL). I'll place buy and sell lines on this chart when they hit, but they are not guaranteed in any way.


Dollar - got a pop overnight. but 30m is about to roll over. Should have more weakness here.
Natgas - Report at 10:30 today. Have your fingers on the trigger. Is the pop over? Was this just a pause before further weakness? It has been range bound for over a week now.
Oil - Might be rebounding. With all the talk about Israel and Iran teeing it up sometime soon I would not expect any weakness.
Gold - Should remain range bound leaning to more weakness
EUR/USD -  oversold on the 60m, but you never know. One of the PIIGS could puke up a lung any minute.

GL!

I Think You Have To Get Ready For A Turn

I'm just saying, you know how stupid this sounds, like the market could actually turn. LMAO. With that thought in mind I present the following. 

CPC is getting near the extremes that brought the last big sell off. It is not there yet and we may need a little pop to get us there, but it is in the potential reversal zone. Last time it was down here we got a major move.

 Daily SPX - OK, price is above the daily BB. It is just under resistance. The red wedge is ending. The BB is pinching price into support. The BB may be vertical at this point. The BB width is very narrow indicating volatility. It has been overbought for an extended period.

 SPX weekly - I have been bringing you this chart with targets since October. I have cautioned that this rally will be over when the RSI crosses that red support line. With RSI finally over 80 one would think that would be enough. I will be truly amazed if it crosses the green target zone which contains the 200ma at 1224, the gap, the 61.8% retracement at 1230 and C=A at 1214. In my opinion this last push that got the market thru the bear market upper trendline is the blow off top suckers rally.

I'm not saying go short the market. I'm saying this should be a major turning point if things were "normal". I will continue to play my SDS and SSO up and down on the 30m S Sto crosses on SPX. They can ramp this SOB to the moon for all I care, but if this technical intersection on the daily chart does not produce a reversal I'll be amazed (yes, even more than I already am). GL!

Dollar Disaster? Gold/SPX Movement?

Tough call on the dollar. Ranking in my top three of the most manipulated things in the universe (with Gold and Oil) who the heck knows whats going on? Maybe it is our turn to fall. EUR has had its time in the sun being devalued to prop up the EU, now is it our turn? As I have asked before, did they create a false strength in the dollar to set up room to fall to counteract a potentially weakening or topping market all along helping the EU out of a hole? Is is possible that the EUR could really strengthen? Yeah, I know, when PIIGS fly maybe. Thus the conundrum, how much can the dollar weaken and against what? Hmmmm....how bout an unpegged Yuan? The dollars correlation with the market has been an off and on love affair recently, however if they should begin to hook up again, the bulls may retain momo. On the other hand, the market's recent strength combined with the dollar's climb leaves one to wonder, should the both be due for a fall? This is some really screwy stuff.

Daily chart - completes a 50% retracement and gap fill then takes out support line (yellow) off of the lows. Those indicators do not look good either. 79.12 is the 38% fib,  78.17 is the 50% fib and 77.23 is the 61.8% fib.

Weekly chart - this appears that the fall is just getting cranked up.

Now - how will gold react to the dollar's potential plunge. Most are thinking that gold remains in a sideways trend for some time remaining range bound for some time before the next break out (I think it can retrace to 950 before further strength and that future valuation issues and other stuff will make gold very sketchy in the future - you must own the physical if you are going to own it at all). Here is a chart with the SPX, Gold and the dollar all in one place. It appears that recently the correlation between the dollar with SPX and gold had been disturbed somewhat, but if it should regain the trend, that would be bullish for both the market and gold if the dollar should crumble.

Morning Post, SPX, S&P 500

Good morning! After the AA miss the minis sank as low as 1188 and are now in rally mode recovering back to 1191 at this point 1.5 points down. Guess where the 30m indicators are? Yup, trending up off of the bottom. Amazing how they manufacture small gap down open that will fill creating momo for another low volume bleed up. Even the 60m indicators are coming off the floor this am. Someone please send a hearty congrats to Ben and the gang for another fine job. Looks like another great short setup has been averted.

Earnings Calendar - Yes, it is that time of year again. INTC after the close and JPM before the open tomorrow. Should make for an interesting day.

Economic Calendar - Quiet today but tomorrow and Thursday get really busy.

Pivot Points - Know 'em.

SPX Daily - With the minis at the upper corrective resistance line and in the ending stages of a rising wedge and the dailys at the upper end of a narrowing BB and the VIX with it's head in the sand and the the SPX at the end of what I am calling a rising wedge and that the market is overbought and that there are significant divergences on the daily chart that one would think that any day now this thing would have to puke up a lung or two. Not so fast my friend. The bots, the Fed and the Treasury have things well under control. It is close, should be very close to some sort of solid corrective. Given the trouble with the PIIGS and our own states issues this may be the top. There are so many issues (as documented here nightly) that can not be overcome that it is only a matter of time before some real trouble hits.

Dollar - I think the corrective may be over. After closing the gap and completing a 50% retracement of the original fall, it has cracked a support line I have, the dailys are falling and the weeklys have topped.This combined with the position of the EUR should say it is our turn to get weak. With the isssues with the PIIGS I would not trust the charts as currency speculation at this time is very dangerous. I am not sure if the on/off correlation with the SPX is worth looking at any more, but if the dollar should weaken, that bodes well for the markets (ya think they know a fall is coming and have set the dollar up to support a falling market?
OIL - Still has some room to run. Dailys overbought but the weeklys are not quite there just yet. It is at resistance and could top here, but there is also room up to 95.
Natgas - Might be forming a base or will continue what I think is a corrective before further weakness.
Gold - Weekly indicators say more strength. I think any more troubles with Greece and you may see a good pop to previous highs. It is out the top of it's weekly BB with RSI pulling off of 70, so maybe some weakness here should be expected.

EUR/USD - the weekly and daily indicators combiled with a breakout of the channel down and a completed 61.8% retracement of the climb from 08 to 09 should say more upside to come. I don't believe it. I'm not sure the EUR is still around 2 years from now.
EUR/JPY - basing as well with some strength.

GL out there. If something happens, I'll post a chart ASAP.

When Is Enough Enough? E-minis SPX 500 Futures

You tell me when enough is enough. The latest unfathomable feat of the march to infinity and beyond happened on Friday after the bell I guess speculation (with some inside information) on the Greek bailout announcement. Of course the minis shot up a few extra points, but what they gapped thru is the insanity of it. For months I have been bringing you the minis and the wedge. The upper trendline has been the one constant the market has respected, until tonight. In the words of Moses, "Behold his power and respect his rules." (No caps cause I was referring to Helicopter Ben in the place of I Am).

Daily from the low - 

60m Drill down -

Even closer - note the gap thru the TL. That is one way of knowing you have a really solid TL in the right spot. So now futures price is above the bull run's top TL and in the green wedge heading further into the stratosphere. The reversal of all this will be horrendous.

I believe the 60m futures will still be overbought in the morning (see the TLs under the indicators above). The divergence on the daily RSI and overbought condition can not be ignored much longer. After the gap up in SPX to get it's 1200 glory, I am anticipating a fall of some degree. Let the 30m minis cycle to the top and that should be the proper time to enter shorts (they have a nasty way of setting up the 30m indicators to bottom in the am so be careful shorting till they top). The 30m SPX rupture (see my last post below) on Friday was possibly the single most abomination of the charts I have seen thus far on the run up.

One last chart - YEARLY SPX - 1209 looks to be a really important number on this chart.You need to note that the MACD is still in bear mode and although RSI is bouncing off the 50 line now I would not pay that any attention. The yearly RSI will have to hit the 25 line or worse before this ends. That is one super bearish candle in 2008. I expect the candle for this year to be red as well. Yes, that is a trendline and the lower BB near 300. The 50 ma is at 479. More in the am. GL!

Crack? LOL!

 Stupid me to think a great setup had a chance to bring the market down late on a Friday. Lord when will I ever learn. Looks like the wedge on the 1m was a simple pennant or a flag and caused a great whipsaw in the indicators on the 30m below. Check out the MACD whipsaw on a 30m chart no less in the big black oval. Call it channel magic! Call it what you may. Remember, playing in the street with the Fed and PPT is a dangerous game. Enjoy your weekend.

If the 60m divergences hold this could get interesting. If the 30m is a fake out this is just a reset of the lower wedge line.

Morning Post, e-mini

Now the question becomes was the fall on Tuesday and Wednesday just another ABC corrective and the march up continues? If yesterday was a corrective of that move it was most impressive. If it was another 1 of the next 5 wave move up it was even more impressive. Look, at this time we all know this market is a POS rigged game. We all know it will come crashing down eventually. As I have anticipated from the beginning, and I repeat again, it will take and "external event" out of "their" control to make the markets crash. It will crash and it will be soon. They can't keep the balls in the air forever. They have nixed all rules and regulations and have had the printing presses in overdrive reinflating the bubble. It will pop. As I have stated before, there will be TWO market closures on the next fall.


I'll be back in the office next week. Enjoy your weekend. 

Pivot Points - Know 'em

Economic Calendar -

Masters -Yes, it is rigged as well. It seems the the standards for the WWE permeate the nation now.

I apologize for missing this analogy for over a year now. If the average American believe Pro Wresting is real, then WTF do you think they believe about this recovery crud the government and MSM are feeding them?

E-mini daily - The upper bull market resistance line is real. It has held the market for over a year now. I believe the pot can boil over, and it will sooner than later. All this pattern has left in it is churn. Significant upside should be limited from here. The only thing that can cause even more upside from here is even more significant market manipulation by the bots. Expect a long rant Monday.

GL and have a great weekend.

Morning Post, SPX, S&P 500, e-mini

Well they have teed off at the Masters and apparently the bears have teed off on the bulls as well. I am still on vacation. I can't wait to get back to writing the evening posts.

Pivot Points - Know 'em

Economic Calendar - Very busy with Jobs before the bell and Natgas at 10:30.

Masters - I still swear to this day the first time I walked into Amen Corner my feet did not touch the ground.

First an overview of where your favorite index is. Who has the farthest to fall to catch up? Well, you TZA and QID fans that have been feeling most of the pain have a chance to get the most delight on the backside if prior trends persist IMO.

SPX daily - Lord I hope the final divergence is set and this sucker can finally roll over for a week or two (or 52).

SPX weekly - Just look at the SPXA50 and the NYMO divergence and the last few time this combo has happened.

UNG- I'm not sure who it was that posted the possible breakout of UNG on March 8th. Oh yeah, that was me! As far as I know I was the only person on the planet that made the call. I did the post on Focal Equity and only linked it here in some comments. This time may be a little different, but a move north is still possible as the 30, 60 and dailys are oversold again. The possibility exists for a continued move north. I'd have my finger on the trigger at 10:30 just in case. I made a great scalp in less than 5 minutes last time.

GL today. I expect some churn today with a 50% chance of continued downside action. I'm thinking a corrective is in order if it does not let go. I'll post again during the day like yesterday if anything happens. This crack on the minis should be a big deal but may want a backtest so be patient. If no backtest, look out.

No More Room At The Inn - E-minis

Upper bear market correction resistance line is a hair away.

Drilled down.

Morning Post, E-mini, SPX, S&P500

Good morning from the sunny Florida panhandle. The 4 day beard has become a lucky trading goatee. Masters week is upon us as well. Surf is up but the futures are down. I'm gonna show you an interesting trend in the minis below so pay attention.

Pivot Points - Know 'em

Economic Calendar - Petrol at 10:30, Helicopter Ben at 1:30, Hoenig at 2:00 and consumer credit at 3:00. All could move the markets.

The push for 11,000 and 1,200 is still on. The RUT, Q's and Trans have made their goals I believe. SPX 1200 and DOW 11,000 are a breath away. Not sure if WLSH wants 12,500 or not. Sho looks like this run is running out of room for now. We all should know this market is running on fumes and the trannie (government/Fed funding) will give out eventually.

E-minis - What I want you to notice is the trend of them driving the futures up during the day and driving them down overnight when everyone is asleep. Follow the MACD and RSI below. Here we are again, gap down with oversold indicators on the futures. They create the gap down that the market wants to fill and then that momo continues to an indicator peak during the day. Rinse, repeat. That pink support line has a little crack. If the green line goes I believe something more dramatic is in store.

SPX weekly - I have been bringing you this same chart since last October. That is now 7 months or so I have been cautioning about further upside. The pattern is nearing an end. I do not see any further upside above a possible throwover of the wedge. The weeklys can climb a bit yet, but they have remained overbought since May of last year in my opinion. At this time I think 950 is a good target when it finally lets go (yes, I do think we eventually set new lows).

SPX Daily - The upper BB is pushing price into the support line. Unless some sort of dramatic surge up in the BB something has to give (I think it will be the support line). BB width is under 70 which is narrow and should cause some volatility.

GL out there. It is a tough game especially playing against a stacked deck. I'm looking for a major news event to set off this next fall which should mark the top. I'll do oil, dollar, natgas, gold and EUR post later. Sorry I have not been reporting on these like usual.

The Impossible Is Happening Right In Front Of Your Eyes, $SPX, S&P500

This is a daily chart with daily indicators. This is not some weak puny little 60 or 30m chart, but a daily chart. The divergences on this chart are real and not your imagination. The MACD bear cross is real. The MACD hist falling off a cliff is real. The Slow Sto bear cross and plummet is real. The divergences on Williams, Force, PPO and MFI are real. ADX is really falling. Yes, Ultimate is falling. Yes Accum/Dist is in orbit. SPXA50 is at 444. So, you tell me if it is normal that the market was up 6.63 points today, over 1/2 a percent?

The market does defy gravity and any force of nature that could pull it down. With no regulation, rampant corruption, and autobots (more like Decepticons) controlling all the trading in an extremely thin market nothing natural or of any statistical measure really matters any more. Listening to the UBS pit trader run the show today was astounding. Like a hungry lion with an insatiable appetite, nothing was going to get by his marching orders to lift the price at any cost. This is some really screwed up stuff if you are a realist. If you are a standard sheeple without any conscience or inclination to achieve, none of this matters to you.

I have been behind the manipulation theme for over a year now. I get it. It is real, but again my frustration boils over. This is a load of crap. This is, in the name of saving the union, destroying the fabric of our constitution. The raping of America for the glory of the banks has gone to far, and I have really had enough. It is out of control and no one is doing a damn thing to stop it. You can kiss everything you know goodbye, cause when this is over there will be nothing left. Our dignity as a nation is gone. We have been sold out.It will crash one day. There is no recovery. We have done nothing to address the core credit problems that caused this mess. They have simply prolonged the pain and suffering thru a massive waste of money (or transfer of wealth to the banks) in the name of reflation.

We have 8 (EIGHT) months of cash flow left as a nation (yes, this includes the 1.9 trillion they just extended to the treasury ceiling). Do you care to tell me where they will make up the difference when this fairy tale ends? That's right, taxes and real budget cuts and both are gonna really hurt.  March 29, 2010 Total Debt Subject To Limit: $12,629,674,000,000

Care to look at the Debt Clock?

This Daily SPX charts is better viewed HERE. Look and revel in the impossible. It is occurring on this chart. View and be amazed.

S&P 500, $SPX,

I hope everyone had a good weekend. With All the action this week (see Economic Calendar below) picking a direction here would be meaningless. Sure the indicators say overbought and the economy is a total mess, but that means nothing. You have to roll with the punches. Play what the Fed and the BD's give you. You are playing their game and have to play by their rules. Easter week, so we have a short week and trading may be light. 

Economic Calendar -HUGE week. With ADP Wednesday (a well timed misleading GS number thrown out some time mid weak and some more BS from the BLS), Thursday will be huge with all sorts of stuff and Friday you should know is the big jobs report.What this all adds up to is a big Monday next week IMO.

Pivot Points - Know 'em.

Permabears, keep your emotions in check.

Comparison chart - SPX, Oil, TNX and the dollar are having a party and gold has decided not to join in. The inverse relationship of SPX to the Dollar broke down back in December. The dollar has strengthened considerably and the SPX has ignore this run. This should change. A stronger dollar is not necessarily a good thing for the markets. I guess their argument now is that the price of the dollar to the market is "relative". LOL, that's funny, kinda like the price of gold being manipulated is "relative" as well.

SPX -Can they reverse the trend in the daily indicator chart? It would not surprise me. Remember this is a huge week as mentioned above, then you have to throw in the quarter ending scenario (they want to hold those balances up for a good statement print). This chart looks really bearish (like the top may be in bearish). Beauty is only skin deep though and we all know what the inside of this monster looks like.

SPX 60m - The 15 and 30m charts are oversold, the minis being up a little over 4 and price sitting on support a pop this morning should only complete the current corrective or flag/pennant that is forming.

SPX Weekly - The weekly SPX chart says that a top could be near, but it still has some strength. RSI5 is above where the market has peaked in the past and overbought. F Sto got a bear cross last week. S Sto is no longer climbing and may possibly be setting up  a bear cross in the next week or two. OBV is at the point it has reversed recently. What I want you to see id the relationship between SPXA50 and the NYMO. While it is not necessary, the last several tops have been marked by a top in the SPXA50 combined with a divergence in the NYMO. This has been very reliable. If we are to get some sort of manufactured pop this week thru manipulation of the employment data that may set the divergence for the top. 5 out of the past 6 weeks up to set a higher high is impressive. Bernanke is proving his worth as possibly the best market manipulator ever (but that is really not that hard when there are no regulations or rules to play by and you have no morals).

Based on the dailys I am expecting continued weakness. Possibly a lot of weakness, BUT with the short trading week and the BS BLS coming, I MUST CAUTION the shorties about more strength in the market. I am no longer swing trading anything. It is much better to hit and run. Watch the indicators and do not be surprised at anything. Until that weekly chart confirms a trend change more upside churn is still possible.

GL!

What More Does It Want?

This is getting a little ridiculous. OK, so now I'm seeing a double throwover (black and green wedge. both have completed A-E formations. The ABC has completed and measured out. The indicators have fought back to overbought levels. It is blowing out the upper BB. No divergences yet. It took out resistance set a new high and did nothing. The dow set a higher high today.

Your daily index comparison shows a "nice grouping" with everyone now at higher highs. That grouping would have me nervous as a bull. I'm just waiting patiently. The weekly his is positive right now but the Stos are not there yet. The hist on MACD is there for a turn. Look for the RSI5 to begin to roll over then you should be able to cut loose.

Morning Post

Remember back in January where I kept harping on one more higher high? We're there. I lost a bunch of readers who thought I was nuts and EWT said "this can not happen again". Well, Prechter is not so proudly continuing his 0-fer on calling tops and sticking to using plain vanilla TA is kicking his (and his followers) ass. I am not paid millions to make market calls. I do not have a team of researchers. I am a nobody and am taking him to the woodshed. I wonder if those readers are lurking in the shadows now? Sorry, but I have to say this now, when the hell will you wake up and learn that EWT is a bunch of SHIT. How much money has it cost you. How much time have you wasted following Hotchberg and trying numerous fruitless counts? Is this the 4th top you have "counted" that "had to be it"? Listen, USE TA ONLY and you would not be in this mess. EWT will have it's moments of brilliance. Sometimes counts do work, but as Craig from Stocktock always said, "Trust the charts". That may be the best lesson I ever learned.

Not surprisingly to me, the SPX should open at a new high for the year this morning. Back in the infancy of the blog I set a standard and made the call, the market is manipulated and it will continue to go up until some "external force" that is out of "their" control rips it away. Back then I was one of the few buying into the possibility that the greatest market on earth was a farce, now I am one of the many. Part of my theory has been that the market is all they have left between them and anarchy.

They absolutely must keep the value of the markets up for many reasons. Thru interest rate manipulation they forced the markets to be the only place to play if you wanted to make any money. Thru providing excessive liquidity and quantitative easing and the use of many fraudulent (and what I propose are illegal) accounting measures, they have lifted the market to levels that represent nothing more than a farce. We are participating in the raping of the assets of the American people. The great Pump and Dump. The insider selling should tell you plainly what is going on. There is no regulation. There is no transparency. Everything is run and controlled by the big money lobbyists. The middle class is being wiped out while big government furthers it control over the sheeple thru supplementation to the growing masses of the needy. The welfare state is expanding.

On to the markets - We'll set a higher high on the SPX today. The Dow is still 117 point from setting a higher high.

Here is one of my index comparison charts. It used to be a good chart till this recent round of exuberance screwed it up. If this were a game of darts, I would say that looks like a nice grouping. Compare the last rise and this one. Notice anything different? That's right, this one is not orderly. It is an impulsive piling on. What you are seeing is what one would normally think is a sucker's rally. The last rush in by the dumb money that does not want to miss the move up. This type of piling on usually deserves a 15 yard penalty, but is it different this time? I think so, because the public is not participating. It is your tax dollars running thru the treasury and Fed into the hands of the broker dealers that use the HFT algos to buy and sell against each other front running the markets to siphon off millions for their benefit and bonuses. This is your tax dollars at work trying to "save the economy and produce and economic recovery" FOR THE BANKS.

This thing is about to let go. Be patient. I am not sure if the Dow will have to catch up and set a higher high or not, but if it gets close and as soon as it gets one tick above the previous high, I'd have my finger on the trigger. The weekly chart is not showing a turn yet, but the divergences are stronger now than on any of the previous turns. This will be the top. I am speculating that the mutual funds will want a good month end print (possibly the last one for many years), so this may churn till the last week or thru opex (but it may not).

For those of you that have called me nuts (or worse) for believing and insisting the markets are manipulated and that accounting fraud is the only reason for any of this "recovery" please see The "Repo 105" Scam: How Lehman Fooled Everyone (Including Allegedly Dick Fuld) And How Other Banks Are Likely Doing This Right Now from Zero Hedge. This may be not only the market's black swan but the government and the Fed's as well.

Be patient. I'm waiting on the weeklys to show some sign of wanting to turn (which could happen any minute as the dailys are now showing divergences). I would have to say that if not some time today then next week for sure some sort of turn is coming. I'll have all chambers loaded and a finger on the trigger. At the first sign of any significant momo south, I'll be pulling the trigger as fast as possible.

I'll add this - I'm speculating the possibility of another rising wedge if this is not the ending of the ABC. Well know for sure on the next breakdown which is right. If the ABC plays out we simply fall like a rock, but if we don't look for a D down and E up to a possible double top here to end it all.We're also somewhat off the cycles I was following. There is still plenty of time for the March low I was looking for, and wouldn't it be a beautiful move to get that low set?

GL out there. Don't forget my Tournament Challenge Bracket (PW- Shanky) Have a great weekend!

Morning Post

Will patience be rewarded today for the bears (at least for those who have been able to remain patient)? Minis down a little over 3 (they were down 5). I have the minis cracking the lower TL of a rising wedge that goes back to the 1084 low. The target for the fall is near 1106. The fibs for the fall are 38% -1119, 50% - 1112 and 62% - 1108. Now all that talk about "falling" might be hogwash as we all know markets do not fall anymore. The 30 and 60m indicators on the minis are bottoming, but you know not to pay attention to those. The dailys are overbought and those are the indicators we're watching here. The C leg of the ABC formation for what I am calling 2.1.3 has completed 78.6% of A so there may be a little more room to climb. 1157 is where C=A.

Economic Calendar - Redbook at 8:55 and then some note auctions make for another quiet day. Tomorrow will be busy, but I am not seeing anything IMO that will cause the market to react to tomorrows news.

A year later - hogwash - a year from what? The time they decided to hand our country over to the blackmailers? I'll ask, has anything good happened other than them creating a false sense of recovery? You might be in store for a good rant today after I have been forced to listen to the MSM spew BS all day.

A quick look at the charts says - 60m SPX rolling over and creating (or continuing even longer) divergences. The weekly chart is showing early signs of cracking. MACD hist is almost positive (we need that for a top IMO). T Sto has a hook. RSI5 is hooking under its upper divergence line. The most interesting is SPXA50 is just under 400 and trying to turn. It like to run to 400 or above and then reverse. It has made it there.


SPX Daily Chart - Little red doji yesterday on uber-lite volume. Smacking the upper BB which should (theoretically) cause resistance. RSI5 is in the nosebleed section and possibly rolling over. RSI14 is right at it's upper divergence line. S Sto look to still have some strength. MACD hist has not turned yet. Those that know my calls, I will look for a combo of the hist turn with a S Sto bear cross. ADX is at a point it has reversed in the past. Bottom line is everyone is in place for a turn but S Sto. Keep an eye on it and remain patient. Some sort of correction is overdue, but how much is the question? Are we completing the corrective or is there one more wave up? I'll play it short with caution and go deep short at the top of wave 2 of the first move south.

Dollar - Range bound for the past few weeks. This is looking more like a corrective flag than the fall I want. If this is a 4 then much more strength can be expected. The daily S Sto got a bull cross yesterday and MACD hist is now turning up, so look out for more strength.
Oil - Daily chart looks pretty toppy. Weekly chart says it can still run, but it is setting a big divergence indicating this is possibly the last of the last for high priced oil (that fits nicely with my thoughts of an impending global economic collapse).
Gold - tough read here as it plays in what might be a corrective above support hanging in a range. Weeklys look weak and the dailys are overbought. I'll go for continued consolidation and then is the dollar rises and the market tanks then gold should fall as well. HERE is a vid from Market Club that I think is pretty good.Wath the use of their trade triangles - it is pretty good.
Natgas - 4.24 is the 50% retracement of the move off of 2.41. There is also support at that level. Daily indicators are embedded on the bottom and the weeklys are still trending down. Pop them more weakness is what I am looking for. that pop will be worth jumping on if you can time it right. Should be close. Natgas report is 10:30 Thursday am. I would not touch it till then.
EUR/USD - Weekly oversold and has completed a 61.8% retracement off of the March lows. It should rally from here. Not much, but it should according to TA. Thus the base. How this fits with the dollar and Greece and where they have to deflate currencies to does not fit. So, I am a little miffed at this pair's direction.

GL out there. I expect to be short before the day is over.

Morning Post

Its starting - University of California Campus Erupts In Riots; Student Loan Scam Drives Up Cost Of Education; Expect More Riots - They are coming. I do not watch the MSM anymore, so I do not know if these were covered or not. More on this and other things to come (nothing good of course) in the evening post.

Economic calendar - 3 and 6 month auction later today. Otherwise quiet.

Bent on manipulation should be the overriding theme of this market. If Rosie is right and the SPX is roughly 26% overvalued on a P/E basis, then these unprecedented pops are all that more impressive. The low volume trading is allowing the market makers little resistance to push it where they want it to go. I think, as a trader, you have to keep an open mind and stick with the trend. If you have not learned not to fight the trend by now, please leave the room now and do not return. You do not belong in the trenches trading these markets. The trend will turn. P3 will come. A massive meltdown/slaughter is coming, but it is obviously not here yet, so keep an open mind towards the current trend and NOT on what we all know is eventually coming.

OK, at least one blog I know of has been calling/warning of the possibility of a 5.3.5 move for at least two weeks. Who could that be? Hmmmm? I've been right on most of my calls all the way up leaning with the unexpected upside driven by manipulation and they did not disappoint me again last week. Why do you think I posted the weekly chart last week and asked you to heed its strength? Yes, I took some small short positions on Thursday, but was stopped out at the open on Friday. A turn is coming soon. Wait for it to come to you. I would not trust anything long here. This next move south should be pretty drastic I'm thinking.

SPX 60m -Have we learned out lesson of gauging market moves on the 60m indicators class? They are not reliable (at least not in a way they used to be). I warned you not to trust 'em. Yes, I shorted on what I thought was an overthrow of the triangle. It looked really good. Now if my I'm counting right were clearly in the C leg of an ABC move. I think we're finishing 3, but I can also count a 5 wave completing. The move actually measures best to a double top which will be fun to call. Keep an eye on the weekly indicators. This should be the final move for the bulls. Yes, those divergences are real and should put some pressure on the market (you'd think).

SPX Daily - Overbought and at the upper BB.
SPX Weekly - Still climbing. MACD hist has not gone positive. Bears may have to wait for a green candle there. RSI5 is just under it's divergence line. Let's see if that holds. S and F Sto are still in bull mode.

I'm expecting a correction soon, but I'm gonna look for a turn in the Weeklys to confirm any serious downside action. We've all seen the 30 and 60m cycle all around while the markets have continued to rise. We have also see the dailys remain embedded for what seemed to be improbable time frames. I'm back to watching the weeklys. Be patient. The turn will come. 

Dollar - I believe I was one of the only ones calling for the ABC corrective (with my alt scenario as a run to 89). I think the corrective has run it's course and a throw over of a wedge has occurred. If I am wrong it does a 30% retracement from the top here and then look for a C=A run to 89. The weeklys are topped and the dailys still have plenty of room to fall. I'm favoring more downside for some time.

Oil - Who the hell knows in the most manipulated market of them all? I think it is going to near $90 and I may be able to put a gate on the top if the trends continues. Look for a backtest of the initial channel off of the lows.

Natgas - It has gotten to weak to fast IMO. It is blowing out the bottom of it's down channel. The dailys are embedded oversold. Again I'll refer to the weekly indicators that say no big move up is coming. It may get a pop here soon, but don't expect much.

Gold - Dailys are toppy but the weeklys have some room to run. I'll speculate on a double top as it should have continued strength. Now, how it reacts to a market turn will be interesting. I'm not sure if it will inversely correlate with the expected weakness in the dollar, but the setup looks to be calling for that.

EUR/USD - The EUR is gonna get pounded eventually, but what isn't? The race for devaluation is in full force, but the EUR may have to pull into the pits for some fresh tires as it has completed a 61.8% retracement and seems to have found support. Might be time to the dollar to play catch up.

Morning Post

Don't believe the retail numbers (or the employment numbers). As I have warned, the people you see on TV are doing their best to pump you full of "it". Remember, they do NOT MAKE MONEY if you are not invested. It is their job to keep you in the market. They do not give a darn about your well being. They only care about their next bigger house in the Hamptons.

Some guy named Bryan on CNBS is a total moron. Right now talking about blow out numbers in retail - I think he and Dennis Kneale must have something going on - this meat head just said "as we see housing coming back" - WRONG!. Read Mish's report here on what should be expected for retail. Now, the comps are to a weak '08 period, the the pump masters (with the BLS), a little accounting chicanery and all the QE liquidity can all still lead this market ever higher, but be reassured it will come crashing down one day in the near future. Total systemic failure is coming. Remember we're coming out of an earnings trough where comps could be beaten by a monkey throwing darts.

SPX daily chart - Topping finally? 60m indicators are toast. 30m are on the road south. The last time we were in this position we got a healthy retreat, but remember the weeklys were in full cooperation. This time the weeklys are headed north hopefully getting ready to set the divergenceMinis are flat coming into the open but it should be noted they were as low as 1114, so they have recovered 6 points since early in the morning.

The double top on the RSI5 screams overbought. The double top in the MACD hist with it declining yesterday screams overbought. S Sto is overbought.ADX is not all that inspired. My two scenarios still stand. This is either a throw over of the triangle and the fall will be to 1044, or this is the ending of the first leg up of the second 5 in the 5.3.5 that I have been speculating about and will be the final run to the final top if it is. I took 1/2 short positions in SDS and FAZ yesterday. It is a wait and see game. Sorry I can not be more definitive in the call, but the manipulators have proven that nothing you see is real or can be counted on anymore.

Dollar - Still falling. I think it is toast and the ABC that I called has completed. Here is my UUP chart. If it should continue to run $89 is my upper target.
Oil - Will tensions in the middle east continue to escalate. If they do blow up, we'll find out the hard way that we are to dependent on energy from others in a bad way. Oil is struggling to go higher right now with the dailys topping out.
NG - Near term oversold and I'm looking for a pop here before further weakness. It is sitting on it's 38% retracement right here. 5.21 max pop.
Gold - Climbing in what may be an ABC corrective. Up $100 in a little over a week. 60m headed down and dailys are topping. If the market begins to sell off so will gold I think.
EUR/USD - The pair has hit bottom I think (for now at least). Is it the dollar's turn to get devalued as they systematically work currencies to a point all this debt can be better managed? It has completed a 61.8% retracement of the rise off of the lows in late '08. Looks to me like that was a 3 and now we're gonna get a 4 corrective up. 1.41 would be a good number. HERE is a good EUR/USD vid.

GL! Let's see what the pump machine has in store for us today. The weeklys are not ready to turn just yet, so those all giddy about a turn may have to wait till next week. We'll have to see.

Morning Post

From Websters -

Main Entry: lev·i·ta·tion 

Pronunciation: \ˌle-və-ˈtā-shən\

Function: noun

Date: 1668

: the act or process of levitating; especially : the rising or lifting of a person or thing by means held to be supernatural.

Nuff said.

Economic Calendar - 

Earnings Calendar -

For those of you in total disbelief, don't be. The top was set. Even the weeklys had confirmed what I though was a major turn, but "they" reversed everything mid stream (ahh, the power of liquidity and QE). I had speculated for some time that they were just allowing the shorts to come on board again so they could squeeze some more juice out of them. What is it they say about irrational markets and your solvency? Get used to it if you are not already.

SPX 60m - Same chart as late yesterday's post. The triangles. Are we experiencing a throw over that will last a few days? Is this something more (as I have speculated this would possibly be a 5.3.5)? I'm sticking with throw over of the triangle for now. A crack of 1132 would be pretty strong.

EUR/USD daily - For those of you short, that is a very oversold pair sitting on it's 61.8% retracement of the move off of the March low. The weekly indicators are bottoming as well. If there is any sort of short covering this thing will explode. Now, I think the shorts are right, but they may get punished once or twice in the short term. We all know every country wants to devalue at this point. The question becomes will the rush for the exits be equitable and orderly?

Not sure how positively the markets will react to worse than expected jobs numbers this week. I'm on the sidelines not playing with any of this mess. This being a throw over or ending the first leg of the next 5 up, I'll wait for a better trend. Divergences may get screwed up this am and a break of 1132 may bring more upside than the bears want to see. If my calculations are right (and this is a final 5 up) it measures out to a pretty double top. I'm gonna break out the weekly SPX chart tomorrow and show you where the ultimate divergence marking the top may come. I think it is being set on this move up. This will be the last chance to exit to LT hold positions. Here is a good vid from Marketclub confirming my thoughts.

GL!

Friendly reminder - German ProSieben TV Channel Finds 500 Gram Tungsten Bar At W.C.Heraeus Gold Foundry With Bank Origin - I suggest that you scroll way down in the comments and read about Chinatungsten Online. Not good. 

Morning Post

Several scenarios exist. My favorite is that was an A of and ABC corrective of a the final 5.3.5 move of 2 of 1 of P3,  that could have completed 2 and we're now in 3 of 1 of 1 or we're in a secular bull market, have fully recovered and you should be balls deep in equities with 100% margin. You should know that the last part was a joke from ne, but the BS you hear from CNBS you may not have known.

Tough call here as the minis tangle with the support line that runs back to August and the lower channel support as well. If that support goes I'd watch for form first. If you see a big 3 impulse, then 2 of 1 is toast and the bears have the ball. If it pussy foots around and lacks volatility then more upside may be coming the bulls are still on offense.

Everything I see says the markets should continue their move down. The 30 and 60m indicators have not bottomed nor have set any sort of divergence that usually signal a turn coming. This move south may just be getting started. If what Benny says today causes a reversal, it should be sort lived and will force the daily indicators to remain overbought. Again, let's see the form and be patient. Let Benny get his BS speech out of the way and then see how the market reacts.

Economic Calendar - Busy with "Make It Rain" Ben at 10:00 along with New Home Sales then at 10:30 the Petrol report. Jobs tomorrow could effect markets later.


Earnings Calendar - DLTR and RIG may interest you.

No futures this am, sorry.

SPX Daily chart -Does not look good.

SPX 60m - This is a possibility that I do not like much, but if this triangle should play out we may be on to some good targets. My last triangle worked great. Why not try another? Again, I don't really like it that much. Maybe the lower TL needs to be reset? The indicators say so. 

Morning Post

Kind of quiet out there this morning, so you get lots of charts!

Economic Calendar - Consumer and investor confidence at 10:00

Earnings Calendar - Nothing huge bust worth a glance.

Emini 60m - What some are calling wave 1 down (blue) and wave 2 up (gray) are clearly seen here. The green diagonal line is the market support line going back to August. Notice how narrow the up channel is compared to the down channel and the decrease in volume with the upside move. Watch that green TL and the channel. If they crack I believe the bears will have the momo again.

SPX daily - Sorry to keep bringing you this chart over and over again, but it has kept me on the right side of the trade for some time now. The RSI 5 has finally crested and RSI may be rolling over. S Sto and  MACD hist have not confirmed anything yet. CCI and ADX are rolling over as well. We should be close given the indicator TL breaks on the 30 and 60m indicators. Another thing I will harp on is the green dashed bear market top TL. I assume this may be a magnet to any downside move and it is going to take a strong move by the bears to recapture it. (it can be seen on the weekly chart below as well.)

SPX Weekly - To me this chart says the market is confused somewhat. This may be the chart to watch to determine who really has the momo and if my thoughts of this being a 5.3.5 move are remotely possible versus the ending of a 2 corrective. Both RSIs have gone flat. MACD hist is moving up and has not gone positive. S Sto is in a bull formation still. Thus some confusion as two are saying up and two are saying caution. F Sto may be the one to watch as it looks to be rolling over and may be the first one here to confirm the trend change if we get one.

Gold - Fairly narrow trading range has developed since the beginning of the year (if you call 10% narrow). Look at the indicators. Topping and trending down. I'd look for the lower TL to be tested before any further strength (if there is any further strength).

Oil - Trending up in a large channel (yellow) and may be getting a little toppy. Nearing the 50% line of the channel with indicators kind of toppy, but still have room to run. There should be a lot of resistance in this area.

Dollar - My thoughts of a E throwover after completing and ABC corrective of the fall sho look good on this chart. It also makes sense if the whole world is going to be in a battle to devalue their currencies. The monthly dollar chart has this as the E of a larger A-E flag that should top at 89ish, thus I am somewhat torn on the call. The dollar has almost completed a 50% retracement of the fall and is at gap resistance.

Not gonna cover the currency pairs till I get them figured out. The drive for global devaluation can't work cause someone has to strengthen for someone to get weak. I assume we strengthen to assist everyone globally (and cause we have a bigger printing press) then later everyone collapses somehow. This is what has been happening recently and the trend may continue. Some are seeing the dollar in a big move up here. I do not think that is possible given the global dynamics (thus I think the EWT counts are wrong).

SPX should be about to roll over here and give the bears the momo for a little while. It does not look like a big 3 down is coming as should be expected by EWT, but you never know. Let's be patient and let the set up come to us.I assume i will be short somewhat (maybe 1/2 position) before the day is over.

GL today!