Morning Post, SPX, S&P 500, E-mini

Happy tax day! Please donate generously! Sadly your refund may not be in the form of cash. Wouldn't it be nice if we could pay them with IOU's. You better enjoy this one cause next year is really gonna suck (well, if you still have a job and are actually making any money)..

Jobless jumps, but thank goodness only another 424 thousand lost their jobs. Man, it could be a lot worse. This is great news. you know that at this rate by the end of the year averaging this same number only a few million more will be out of work. CNBC, if you are listening, as soon as Santeli was done speaking after the number was announced I turned your crap show off.


Earnings Calendar - GOOG after the close. BAC and GE before the open tomorrow

Economic Calendar - Jobs, worse than expected and knocked the minis down 3 to 1202.5. Huge day with many announcements including Philly Fed at 10, Natgas at 10:30 and housing market index at 1.

Pivot Points - Know 'em.

Well, you know what I think.Can they continue to pull rabbits out of the hat? The minis are set for their standard gap down open with the 30m working off being oversold. The minis and most indexes took out their upper resistance lines for the bull market corrective yesterday. You rarely hear anyone bitch about a market going up, but if they don't let this thing breathe soon, you might hear a little uproar. I guess they really don't give a shit. They have proven that they have the ability to take every bubble to the extremes and they are doing the same here. All hail the mighty bonus! To hell with the country, I need a third house in the Hamptons.

Not sure I can add anything to the post from the close yesterday, so if you want to see a chart or two, scroll down. If something should happen I'll be screaming and posting.

I'll add my 30m SPX. I bark about the 30m minis and the 30m SPX quite a bit. This is my main trading chart. SSO up and SDS down. I'll be waiting on the MACD to cross. I like the black TL at 83 as a target if it gets thru the red support line.The key is to remember to buy at the bottoms! Gotta play it both ways.

As a disclaimer, nothing is fool proof. Do your own homework. Always use stops and have a set trading plan. This system works for me, but things change and time frames and signals don't always work (see the daily chart LOL). I'll place buy and sell lines on this chart when they hit, but they are not guaranteed in any way.


Dollar - got a pop overnight. but 30m is about to roll over. Should have more weakness here.
Natgas - Report at 10:30 today. Have your fingers on the trigger. Is the pop over? Was this just a pause before further weakness? It has been range bound for over a week now.
Oil - Might be rebounding. With all the talk about Israel and Iran teeing it up sometime soon I would not expect any weakness.
Gold - Should remain range bound leaning to more weakness
EUR/USD -  oversold on the 60m, but you never know. One of the PIIGS could puke up a lung any minute.

GL!

Dollar Disaster? Gold/SPX Movement?

Tough call on the dollar. Ranking in my top three of the most manipulated things in the universe (with Gold and Oil) who the heck knows whats going on? Maybe it is our turn to fall. EUR has had its time in the sun being devalued to prop up the EU, now is it our turn? As I have asked before, did they create a false strength in the dollar to set up room to fall to counteract a potentially weakening or topping market all along helping the EU out of a hole? Is is possible that the EUR could really strengthen? Yeah, I know, when PIIGS fly maybe. Thus the conundrum, how much can the dollar weaken and against what? Hmmmm....how bout an unpegged Yuan? The dollars correlation with the market has been an off and on love affair recently, however if they should begin to hook up again, the bulls may retain momo. On the other hand, the market's recent strength combined with the dollar's climb leaves one to wonder, should the both be due for a fall? This is some really screwy stuff.

Daily chart - completes a 50% retracement and gap fill then takes out support line (yellow) off of the lows. Those indicators do not look good either. 79.12 is the 38% fib,  78.17 is the 50% fib and 77.23 is the 61.8% fib.

Weekly chart - this appears that the fall is just getting cranked up.

Now - how will gold react to the dollar's potential plunge. Most are thinking that gold remains in a sideways trend for some time remaining range bound for some time before the next break out (I think it can retrace to 950 before further strength and that future valuation issues and other stuff will make gold very sketchy in the future - you must own the physical if you are going to own it at all). Here is a chart with the SPX, Gold and the dollar all in one place. It appears that recently the correlation between the dollar with SPX and gold had been disturbed somewhat, but if it should regain the trend, that would be bullish for both the market and gold if the dollar should crumble.

Morning Post

From Websters -

Main Entry: lev·i·ta·tion 

Pronunciation: \ˌle-və-ˈtā-shən\

Function: noun

Date: 1668

: the act or process of levitating; especially : the rising or lifting of a person or thing by means held to be supernatural.

Nuff said.

Economic Calendar - 

Earnings Calendar -

For those of you in total disbelief, don't be. The top was set. Even the weeklys had confirmed what I though was a major turn, but "they" reversed everything mid stream (ahh, the power of liquidity and QE). I had speculated for some time that they were just allowing the shorts to come on board again so they could squeeze some more juice out of them. What is it they say about irrational markets and your solvency? Get used to it if you are not already.

SPX 60m - Same chart as late yesterday's post. The triangles. Are we experiencing a throw over that will last a few days? Is this something more (as I have speculated this would possibly be a 5.3.5)? I'm sticking with throw over of the triangle for now. A crack of 1132 would be pretty strong.

EUR/USD daily - For those of you short, that is a very oversold pair sitting on it's 61.8% retracement of the move off of the March low. The weekly indicators are bottoming as well. If there is any sort of short covering this thing will explode. Now, I think the shorts are right, but they may get punished once or twice in the short term. We all know every country wants to devalue at this point. The question becomes will the rush for the exits be equitable and orderly?

Not sure how positively the markets will react to worse than expected jobs numbers this week. I'm on the sidelines not playing with any of this mess. This being a throw over or ending the first leg of the next 5 up, I'll wait for a better trend. Divergences may get screwed up this am and a break of 1132 may bring more upside than the bears want to see. If my calculations are right (and this is a final 5 up) it measures out to a pretty double top. I'm gonna break out the weekly SPX chart tomorrow and show you where the ultimate divergence marking the top may come. I think it is being set on this move up. This will be the last chance to exit to LT hold positions. Here is a good vid from Marketclub confirming my thoughts.

GL!

Friendly reminder - German ProSieben TV Channel Finds 500 Gram Tungsten Bar At W.C.Heraeus Gold Foundry With Bank Origin - I suggest that you scroll way down in the comments and read about Chinatungsten Online. Not good. 

E-mini Overview - Where Are We Headed?

Where are we now and where are we headed?

Weekly chart - Sky blue channel down. Top bear market TL was broken in early November. The (pink) P2 (bull market) wedge off of the March lows has played out almost to the very end and the most significant break of the lower support line is happening now. the indicators on this chart show just how overbought the minis are and how close we are to a trend change in the market.

Daily chart -Here you see the pink P2 wedge and the 50% to 61.8% retracement zone (gray box from 1127 to 1235) much better. The convergence of the upper TL, the 50% retracement and the end of the wedge all combine to make a powerful reversal point (esp when combined with the overbought conditions)  New to this chart are the recent divergences to price in the daily indicators (yellow lines). These have a high degree of accuracy in predicting turns.

Daily drill down - Same chart as above covering the C leg of the ABC P2 corrective. Here the new lower green support line is introduced. I believe this is the target for this move. Second target is the backtest of the bear market top TL. The big question will be does it fail at that point or will the bull market continue from there? I do not think it will, but the possibility has to be mentioned. The fibs for this fall off of the "B" 865 low in July are - 38% 1039, 50% - 1006 and 61.8% - 973.

60m chart - Here you get to see the structure of the top better. One thing to notice here is the volume dramatically increasing. I see a possible channel forming (dark blue) that may hold the first wave down of P3 or the final corrective down of P2. The minis did not set a higher high like SPX on Tuesday the 19th. Not sure if this is significant or not. The low of 1101 looks like it completed a 5 wave structure. The removal of the 1127 and 1112 supports and marking new lows was pretty convincing a trend change may be upon us.

30m - Off of the 1148 top it is hard to grasp a count. I would suspect this is a 3 ending here and we had a long 2. I like the channel (sky blue) and what appears to be a falling wedge ending in an oversold situation. the only thing that detracts from those two formations are the devastated support points. If she stops here 1121 is both the wedge target and the 61% fib for a possible retracement.






Support points from here- 1084, 1068, 1028, 1013, 976, 948, 925, 878 and 865.
Fibs - for this fall off of the "B" 865 low in July are - 38% 1039, 50% - 1006 and 61.8% - 973.
Fibs - for this fall off of the P1 665 low in March are - 38% 963, 50% - 906 and 61.8% - 850.
I do not see any diagonal support lines that may come into play at this time.


Shanky's targets? I think this move possibly makes the lower green TL near 1085 in the first week of February. At that point we either bounce back to new highs or it completes 2 of 1 of 3. How severe does this fall get? Maybe the possible "bow tie" top rolls on over at a controlled pace till August when it really lets go. Two possible options I see for a bear market top TL (sky blue) backtest are 1013 in late Feb or 948 in late may. I believe the backtest of that TL will mark the end of 1 of 3. It just seems logical at this point. I don't have a crystal ball, but those intersections look good. If anything they may be too steep (or not steep enough). We'll know more as this form develops. One thing for sure is that after 865, there is a big dark hole to the last bottom.One other prediction - EWT will do a much better job on the way down than it did on the way up. I'll be counting again!

GL and have a great weekend.

What Happens After An AMZN Breakout?

Morning Post - Flat To Down As 5 Churns Out

Good morning. Holiday weekend, more bank failures expected and the onslaught of college football. I could not think of a better combination.

On to the markets. Simply amazing the rebound from the glorious jobs number. /ES went from 1007 to 1000 in a minute and three minutes later it is at 1009. After all of the rumors this week about banks and the relevant fact that we can assume at least one bank in Georgia should bite the dust this afternoon, I am a little leery of the possibilities of something nasty happening after the close. Is the climb in gold someone applying some sunscreen to their portfolio?

Daily SPX chart - RSI bouncing off of 50, but Full and Slow Sto still in nose dive. MACD still rolling over but Histogram appears to be losing some steam and there is a trendline to cross right under the signal line. ADX whipsawed yesterday. The bears should not like the RSI and MACD hist moves as they possibly foretell of a pause in the fall. COMP, DOW and SPX are all sitting on various trendlines of what I believe to be significant. Mainly COMP as it has made it to the lower wedge support line.

60m SPX Chart - - You can see the channel down to back test the last triangle. All the indicators are green. They can embed, but given the more than 61.8% retracement of the run from 974 to 1039 maybe the dip is being bought up by the bots.

Here is the 60m /ESU( chart from this morning. Three things to notice. A) The channel that has formed. B) The indicators in relation to the top trendline say toppy. C) A 38.2% retracement of the fall has been made. This move now qualifies and looks like a completed ABC for a 4th wave corrective up. If the fall from 1038 to 1012 = 26 and the /ES sops at 1010 then you get a target for 5 down at 984. Very reasonable I think. This is, of course, that the counts are right. Notice the support from the 75% line (red on the bottom) of the GSEC channel.

Just like the reaction to the jobs number, I am confused. Sorry, sure you do not want to hear that at this stage of the post, but you have to ask the questions how, why and WTF about the reaction to another dreadful employment number? Bizzaro shit if you ask me. TARP money in play at GS or did some kid just fat finger a trade? I am going to stick with my call for a basically flat to down day today given where the indicators are as 4 churns out and 5 should begin. If she falls I like 984. I would be surprised if it climbs much at all looking at 1015 as the peak of the range if it should. I will speculate that this afternoon may be interesting given the rumors this week.

GL trading.

Morning - Let's set Up the Fall Shall We?

Let's set up wave 3 today and tomorrow with a nice corrective 4 up and 5 down and then the 2 corrective. The bulls are gonna fight back I believe. Yet another muted news reaction to the IMO bad employment numbers. When you come in "somewhat better than expected" as reported by CNBS but are still cranking out 500k + numbers, things suck. No way around it. Remember this is a lagging indicator and jobs means nothing in the overall scale of things.

Chart one - Daily /ESU9. Notice the channel? That is the GSEC channel (as discussed previously) Well, it is purportedly petering out. When this breaks down, I'll concede the top is in. That is P2. I would like to point out that that tiny little light blue blip on the chart is the channel we are in now (chart 2 below). Not much in the overall scheme of things. I'm looking for something much more noticeable to start P3.



Chart two - /ESU9 15m. Notice the channel? Wave 1 down as they are calling it (I'm not there yet). First note the top of the channel is right at 1015 now (the 200ma monthly SPX is at 1018). What I also want you to notice are the two strange red lines running thru the chart. The top one is the 50% line of the GSEC and the lower is the 75% line. While not always accurate, the do have relevance when trading inside of larger formations like the GSEC. Notice the interactions with these trendlines here.



I'm gonna call flat to up today as the corrective move off of the last top continues and we set up the 5th wave of this move down. I'm not all that comfortable with the call, but the 30m and 60m indicators are bottoming which might provide some support. /ES fibs are at 50% 1009 and 61% 1014. I do not see the market going back over 1015 for some time but not under 974 either as we churn thru 4 and 5 of 1 of 3 and then have the 2 of 3 corrective. Matter of fact, you can take a week off if you like.

Remember - If you missed the supposed "top" - no biggie. We are in a 1 down. 2 down will retrace a good portion of 1 and provide a good entry point (I use these as places to enter a second half of a longer swing trade or to exit a bad miss). Just so you are in for the 3 down you will get the meat of the move. So, don't freak out. Be calm and patient and set a strategy (and please always use stops).

I'll be posting on VIX, gold, dollar, oil and UNG (again) later today. No news last night as it was a crappy day, so I took a break.

I almost forgot - college football kicks off tonight. Sveeeet!

GL trading.

Morning Post

The most encouraging thing for the bears is the recent trend of lower lows and lower highs. Keep this in mind if SPX should get to the 993 range. Curious to see if SPX forms a descinding triangle here. There are all sorts of various support points from 1015 thru 975. On the daily chart it looks like the turn may be for real this time as S Sto and MACD have bear crosses with a negative and slightly falling MACD hist. This fall does not have any momo so my hopes are reserved (but that could change). The lower trendline on RSI might hinder the fall. If that breaks then it has to get thru 50.

SPX closed on the lower trendline, but it should crack that at the open. On the daily SPX chart the lower BB is at 981, the 50ma is at 963 and the fibs are 38% 974, 50% 954 and 61% 934. I'll note the BB 20ma is at 1010.

On the 60m chart you have a little different scenario. SPX closed on the lower trendline and the 38% fib off of the 974 low. The upper trendline of the last triangle sits just under 1000 here. the fibs from the 974 low are 38% 1016, 50% 1009 and 61% 978. S Sto has bottomed on the 60m chart and should embed a little. The rest of the indicators look sick and might have a day or two of fall left in them.

The 30m indicators look to have bottomed but could embed.

/ESU9 has us in a falling wedge which fits most of the above. I do not like the lower trendline and expect it to reset today. Set to open slightly down. Lets see if the trendlines fight back. If not, it could get ugly.

GL Trading!