The Impossible Is Happening Right In Front Of Your Eyes, $SPX, S&P500

This is a daily chart with daily indicators. This is not some weak puny little 60 or 30m chart, but a daily chart. The divergences on this chart are real and not your imagination. The MACD bear cross is real. The MACD hist falling off a cliff is real. The Slow Sto bear cross and plummet is real. The divergences on Williams, Force, PPO and MFI are real. ADX is really falling. Yes, Ultimate is falling. Yes Accum/Dist is in orbit. SPXA50 is at 444. So, you tell me if it is normal that the market was up 6.63 points today, over 1/2 a percent?

The market does defy gravity and any force of nature that could pull it down. With no regulation, rampant corruption, and autobots (more like Decepticons) controlling all the trading in an extremely thin market nothing natural or of any statistical measure really matters any more. Listening to the UBS pit trader run the show today was astounding. Like a hungry lion with an insatiable appetite, nothing was going to get by his marching orders to lift the price at any cost. This is some really screwed up stuff if you are a realist. If you are a standard sheeple without any conscience or inclination to achieve, none of this matters to you.

I have been behind the manipulation theme for over a year now. I get it. It is real, but again my frustration boils over. This is a load of crap. This is, in the name of saving the union, destroying the fabric of our constitution. The raping of America for the glory of the banks has gone to far, and I have really had enough. It is out of control and no one is doing a damn thing to stop it. You can kiss everything you know goodbye, cause when this is over there will be nothing left. Our dignity as a nation is gone. We have been sold out.It will crash one day. There is no recovery. We have done nothing to address the core credit problems that caused this mess. They have simply prolonged the pain and suffering thru a massive waste of money (or transfer of wealth to the banks) in the name of reflation.

We have 8 (EIGHT) months of cash flow left as a nation (yes, this includes the 1.9 trillion they just extended to the treasury ceiling). Do you care to tell me where they will make up the difference when this fairy tale ends? That's right, taxes and real budget cuts and both are gonna really hurt.  March 29, 2010 Total Debt Subject To Limit: $12,629,674,000,000

Care to look at the Debt Clock?

This Daily SPX charts is better viewed HERE. Look and revel in the impossible. It is occurring on this chart. View and be amazed.

$SPX S&P 500 980 Target In June?

See annotations. Of course this point is so obvious that Bernanke has seen it and will most likely counter it with a move to 36,000. Enjoy your Sunday.

Am I Conceding The Top Is In? (And My Best Chart Yet!)

Am I calling a top? Believe it or not, no. Not till the lower wedge line is pierced will I be a believer. For the 100th time, I am playing it as the top is in, but not calling one. This is the hardest decision as a prognosticator I have had to make yet. Tops are supposed to make you grind, and I am grinding now. Maybe the true "top" was in April and everything since was the "blow off" sucker rally. The pump and dump is done. That really makes a lot of sense. That should be the call I make here and now. That is what my gut is saying.

Do the manipulators have any more tricks up their sleeves? Who knows? Hard to imagine they don't. The world is crumbling down around us. The "good" news is beginning to be ignored. China is backing out, more bigger banks are failing, the treasury is out of money, the FDIC is bankrupt, the Fed is monetizing debt, unemployment is maintaining a steady 500k clip, 40% of the homes in America are under water, the consumer is dead, GS can front run the world and no one cares, the national debt is insane, even CNBS's constant parade of bullshit is not working any more (today was priceless - they had no clue what to do all day - fuck them) and we have the worst administration running the show in history.

Am I being stubborn? Yup, my worst trait. Like a spoiled child I want my 1050 to 1121 target in October. Should I be happy that I got within 11 points and one month of the lower target range? FNA Absofreakinglutely. That is better than most if I am not mistaken and I ain't paid to do this shit. Should I be happy that I stared all my permabear buddies down and stuck to my guns all the way up? Yup. I did good or you would not be reading this mindless masturbation I am having with myself right now. I am churning inside. I'll hate missing "the call", but at least I will be playing it right.

If the top is in. Let's rock this party. FAZ me to the gills. WARNING - If the top is in, you are now on the ride to hell in a hand basket. You know they say to be careful what you ask for? Here it comes. There is no telling the misery and total destruction this could bring. Anarchy in the streets, soup lines, wars - this is gonna suck and suck for a long time. I anticipate at least TWO market closures on the way down. When they start running for the gates, they will all run at once. More on all this later.

Since we're topping I'll throw this in. I enjoyed the ride up, kind of, well, not really. Thanks for taking it with me. I appreciate all my readers very much. The ride down should be really interesting (for lack of a better word). If you thought I ranted during the market going up, wait till this country is getting ripped apart. I'll really be pissed.

On to the best chart I have done yet (and does a nice job of marking the top I refuse to call)-

I love what I have done with this chart. My daily indicator chart on steroids. Pay attention to the ADX. The large vertical red lines are all keyed by ADX sell line bottoming out.

Look at the coincidences with the other indicators (and the SPXA50 just below). PPO, RSI, MACD, there are NO FALSE TOPS HERE. Only 4 on the chart to choose from and they all worked. The only questionable top was in April when this run should have ended, thus furthering my argument that all gains since April have been bullshit manipulation and are not real (thus will be evaporated).

Right now SPX is in a channel down that I will post in the am or you can see here.

Chart best viewed HERE.

GL Trading.

Morning Post

The most encouraging thing for the bears is the recent trend of lower lows and lower highs. Keep this in mind if SPX should get to the 993 range. Curious to see if SPX forms a descinding triangle here. There are all sorts of various support points from 1015 thru 975. On the daily chart it looks like the turn may be for real this time as S Sto and MACD have bear crosses with a negative and slightly falling MACD hist. This fall does not have any momo so my hopes are reserved (but that could change). The lower trendline on RSI might hinder the fall. If that breaks then it has to get thru 50.

SPX closed on the lower trendline, but it should crack that at the open. On the daily SPX chart the lower BB is at 981, the 50ma is at 963 and the fibs are 38% 974, 50% 954 and 61% 934. I'll note the BB 20ma is at 1010.

On the 60m chart you have a little different scenario. SPX closed on the lower trendline and the 38% fib off of the 974 low. The upper trendline of the last triangle sits just under 1000 here. the fibs from the 974 low are 38% 1016, 50% 1009 and 61% 978. S Sto has bottomed on the 60m chart and should embed a little. The rest of the indicators look sick and might have a day or two of fall left in them.

The 30m indicators look to have bottomed but could embed.

/ESU9 has us in a falling wedge which fits most of the above. I do not like the lower trendline and expect it to reset today. Set to open slightly down. Lets see if the trendlines fight back. If not, it could get ugly.

GL Trading!

Lets Look At A Few Charts

Take a look at the three charts and draw your own conclusions. Some road signs are there and some are confusing because of the manipulation.

The first chart is the monthly I showed you last week.

Notice:

1) RSI 5 and 14 appear to be leveling off just short of the trendlines.
2) Bull cross in F Sto and upward trending Slow Sto - not looking like a turn yet.
3) MACD about to bull cross (usually a confirming indicator IMO). MACD at -113.54 and signal at -114.41. Histogram almost positive at -.863. Will the HIST go positive?
4) MA10 is now upwards sloping.
5) Monthly MA200 is at 1016 just above the current price. See chart below for the last time the 200ma was penetrated (I love that word) in 1974.
6) Positive buy vol is declining.
7) TRIX is still headed south but narrowing (lagging indicator IMO).
8) SPXA50 is at 436. That is 436? 436? Yup. 436. The last time it was this high (438) was in April of 2003 right after the last bubble burst. Really? Yeah, really.
9) ChiOsc is stratospheric nearing pre-bubble burst levels.

So what does all of this say? Well, not much because there are conflicting signals. the chart has a ton of similarities to the end of 2003 when the last bottom happened. On the other hand you can cherry pick some similarities to the last top in 2007. Given the overbought scenarios in the WEEKLY and DAILY indicators, a turn should be happening sooner than later. I am still going with my prediction we top in October after a good move south soon.

For those that say this last bottom did this and this other bottom did that need to realize history is a good guideline, but this time is different. This is a true financial crisis like nothing we have ever experienced nor will we again in our lifetimes. We once had a savings rate of -1%. We were the world's consumer. Our consumer is dead and there is no one that can step up to take our place. There is nothing that I can see that will readily put 10% of our country back to work and more factors that will continue putting people out of work. The debt can not be supported and the failure of treasury sales is your first clue that this is ending. The HFT, accounting fraudulent, government sponsored rally we are experiencing is pure bullshit.

CHART viewed better here.



Bottom in 1974 - the last time the 200ma was penetrated (hugh, hugh - he said penetrated) in 1974. Just to give you an idea of "what happened the last time this happened" LOL.



The following is a chart from 1928 thru 1944. The last great depression. If we don't go crashing to new lows, I expect something like this to play out with what I would call an L shaped recovery over an extended period of time as everything resets and we work off the excesses in the system. In this chart you can also see the channels I have for the LT trends. The market is currently near the 50% line of this channel (thus plenty of room to fall with the 75% line near 450 and the lower line near 300).



GL trading.