OK, wake up. WAKE UP! WAAAAAAKKEEEEE UP! I'm not sure if the markets ever actually opened today or if there was some sort of new holiday our fearless leader enacted that I was not aware of. Maybe something to celebrate the stellar employment numbers or possibly the fantastic retail sales coming tomorrow? You know, we really have so many financial blessings to be thankful for. I'm really thankful they have morgaged our country's future to save the TBTF's! Without them, where would we be? It's a damn good thing the rescission is over and we are not in a depression! Phew, I feel better now.
Shooting for another sentence from Zero Hedge - Here it goes - Focusing On (And Profiting From) The Upcoming Chinese Financial Crisis we are Sorry, The Upper Class Will Not Pull The US Economy Out Of The Depression but it looks like Retail Sales To Disappoint, Risk At Risk Again. Not as good as the last one, but you get the drift. The best read there is David Rosenberg's 2010 Outlook "The Recession Is Really A Depression"
Keying from Rosie's Depression post, I'll move along with One in Four Children on Food Stamps, One in Eight Overall; Weekly Unemployment Claims Tick Up from Mish which also covers the employment numbers nicely. Sounds like more statistics the government does not want you to know. I somehow missed the O covering this topic in his last speech. Well, at least we know he is expanding his voter base! Zero Hedge has this lovely visual on the employment situation (since we're covering things you are not supposed to see - Emergency Jobless Insurance Claims Surge By Most Ever In Prior Week
naked capitalism has Effort to Reform Finance Instead Turning into a Coup by Bankster. You see, they are taking control of your TV set. Do not touch the dials. Do not attempt to adjust the antenna. You have no control (actually no one has control but the big dog GS). So they are now writing their own runes. BRILLIANT!
And to continue that disgusting thought Washington's Blog has Financial Reform Is Being Gutted ... And Congress Might Not Even Realize It "From what I’m hearing, it is possible Frank doesn’t even know that this language, once in the bill as an amendment but removed, has snuck back into his reform legislation. Things are moving very quickly on the hill right now, and this is scheduled to be wrapped up by tomorrow. However this new language runs counter to the reforms Frank has promised to deliver to the American people. Either this language needs to be clarified before the bill is complete, or removed entirely." As often as I am having to call them to complain, I have just decided to keep my reps on the speed dial.
I'm depressed - Ha! Get it - Depressed. Not really, but we all should be cause that is not a light at then end of the tunnel headed our way.
GL and happy holidays!
Showing posts with label great depression. Show all posts
Showing posts with label great depression. Show all posts
Thursday, December 10, 2009
Monday, August 3, 2009
Lets Look At A Few Charts
Take a look at the three charts and draw your own conclusions. Some road signs are there and some are confusing because of the manipulation.
The first chart is the monthly I showed you last week.
Notice:
1) RSI 5 and 14 appear to be leveling off just short of the trendlines.
2) Bull cross in F Sto and upward trending Slow Sto - not looking like a turn yet.
3) MACD about to bull cross (usually a confirming indicator IMO). MACD at -113.54 and signal at -114.41. Histogram almost positive at -.863. Will the HIST go positive?
4) MA10 is now upwards sloping.
5) Monthly MA200 is at 1016 just above the current price. See chart below for the last time the 200ma was penetrated (I love that word) in 1974.
6) Positive buy vol is declining.
7) TRIX is still headed south but narrowing (lagging indicator IMO).
8) SPXA50 is at 436. That is 436? 436? Yup. 436. The last time it was this high (438) was in April of 2003 right after the last bubble burst. Really? Yeah, really.
9) ChiOsc is stratospheric nearing pre-bubble burst levels.
So what does all of this say? Well, not much because there are conflicting signals. the chart has a ton of similarities to the end of 2003 when the last bottom happened. On the other hand you can cherry pick some similarities to the last top in 2007. Given the overbought scenarios in the WEEKLY and DAILY indicators, a turn should be happening sooner than later. I am still going with my prediction we top in October after a good move south soon.
For those that say this last bottom did this and this other bottom did that need to realize history is a good guideline, but this time is different. This is a true financial crisis like nothing we have ever experienced nor will we again in our lifetimes. We once had a savings rate of -1%. We were the world's consumer. Our consumer is dead and there is no one that can step up to take our place. There is nothing that I can see that will readily put 10% of our country back to work and more factors that will continue putting people out of work. The debt can not be supported and the failure of treasury sales is your first clue that this is ending. The HFT, accounting fraudulent, government sponsored rally we are experiencing is pure bullshit.
CHART viewed better here.
Bottom in 1974 - the last time the 200ma was penetrated (hugh, hugh - he said penetrated) in 1974. Just to give you an idea of "what happened the last time this happened" LOL.
The following is a chart from 1928 thru 1944. The last great depression. If we don't go crashing to new lows, I expect something like this to play out with what I would call an L shaped recovery over an extended period of time as everything resets and we work off the excesses in the system. In this chart you can also see the channels I have for the LT trends. The market is currently near the 50% line of this channel (thus plenty of room to fall with the 75% line near 450 and the lower line near 300).
GL trading.
The first chart is the monthly I showed you last week.
Notice:
1) RSI 5 and 14 appear to be leveling off just short of the trendlines.
2) Bull cross in F Sto and upward trending Slow Sto - not looking like a turn yet.
3) MACD about to bull cross (usually a confirming indicator IMO). MACD at -113.54 and signal at -114.41. Histogram almost positive at -.863. Will the HIST go positive?
4) MA10 is now upwards sloping.
5) Monthly MA200 is at 1016 just above the current price. See chart below for the last time the 200ma was penetrated (I love that word) in 1974.
6) Positive buy vol is declining.
7) TRIX is still headed south but narrowing (lagging indicator IMO).
8) SPXA50 is at 436. That is 436? 436? Yup. 436. The last time it was this high (438) was in April of 2003 right after the last bubble burst. Really? Yeah, really.
9) ChiOsc is stratospheric nearing pre-bubble burst levels.
So what does all of this say? Well, not much because there are conflicting signals. the chart has a ton of similarities to the end of 2003 when the last bottom happened. On the other hand you can cherry pick some similarities to the last top in 2007. Given the overbought scenarios in the WEEKLY and DAILY indicators, a turn should be happening sooner than later. I am still going with my prediction we top in October after a good move south soon.
For those that say this last bottom did this and this other bottom did that need to realize history is a good guideline, but this time is different. This is a true financial crisis like nothing we have ever experienced nor will we again in our lifetimes. We once had a savings rate of -1%. We were the world's consumer. Our consumer is dead and there is no one that can step up to take our place. There is nothing that I can see that will readily put 10% of our country back to work and more factors that will continue putting people out of work. The debt can not be supported and the failure of treasury sales is your first clue that this is ending. The HFT, accounting fraudulent, government sponsored rally we are experiencing is pure bullshit.
CHART viewed better here.
Bottom in 1974 - the last time the 200ma was penetrated (hugh, hugh - he said penetrated) in 1974. Just to give you an idea of "what happened the last time this happened" LOL.
The following is a chart from 1928 thru 1944. The last great depression. If we don't go crashing to new lows, I expect something like this to play out with what I would call an L shaped recovery over an extended period of time as everything resets and we work off the excesses in the system. In this chart you can also see the channels I have for the LT trends. The market is currently near the 50% line of this channel (thus plenty of room to fall with the 75% line near 450 and the lower line near 300).
GL trading.
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