Tuesday, March 31, 2009
I'm going with the falling wedge
The breakout and gaps in SDS
Monday, March 30, 2009
How does 1.2 play out? (updated chart)
Sunday, March 29, 2009
I think we've topped.
Saturday, March 28, 2009
Just a quick thought.
Friday, March 27, 2009
Just looking at things
OK - some have us forming a H&S for the push up to 850 after 4.1 for 5.1. I can go for that, but I just dont see the push there. I'm thinking 5.1 truncates. Something "news worthy" may just pop up at "any time". Like the 792 level?. You never know. I just see the market as overbought (for two weeks) and the indicators are struggling to reload. Weekly's still heading up, but dailys finally topping out. May fav is the SPXA50 is about to hit 400. What I like to call the "Kiss of death". The sure sign of overboughtness. It is not there yet, but any push higher and this will be in place as well. I'm not screaming for a fall now. Not just yet. In the first chart above that blue rising wedge may need to play out. In the second chart the light blue trend line and the 25% channel line need to break. In the third chart you get a better view of the trendline from chart 2 and the possible red channel that may mark the bottom of 4.1 fakeout. You can see I am charting some different views of channels and wedges (as I always do). These are to give me a "what if" feel. I've given up on prophesizing this 1 wave up. It has fooled everyone, but I'm of the opinion that it truncates. GL trading and thanks for the views. Have a good weekend.
Thursday, March 26, 2009
My thoughts at this time.
Roubini Says Stocks Will Drop as Banks Go ‘Belly Up' From Bloomberg
Wednesday, March 25, 2009
This is Crap!
Trying to understand the late bounce today (PPT?).
A Case of the Runs
Tuesday, March 24, 2009
So much support
The possible H&S play out
OK - those of you that follow we know I like to dream up these things. BUT since we are topping a 1 and the 2 corrective is on the way take a look at the set up in the above two charts. It kind of fits nicely. There are no targets at this time since I just threw this together, but if the 2 wave correction takes us to 740 range it sure would make a good set up.
Monday, March 23, 2009
The case for the fall - or not.
I like my wedge backtest scenario from the post below. While digesting this 7% up day I thought I would go looking for what I missed. Well, it turns out I missed the wave count and the suprise announcement from out fearless leaders. What have I found on this journey?
Back test flashback
OK - I'm having a flashback. Remember when we left wave 2? Remember the backtest at 943 top? Go look at your chsrts. Remember your angst. Remember when Annoyed was annoyed? this is what I am thinking now. The backtest of the rising wedge. Gap fill at 827 and then 840 to 850. From there you will get the bigger fall. Indicators are all bullish and the govt intervention BS combined with the false enthusiasm surrounding (supressing) the truth will take us higher IMHO.
Sunday, March 22, 2009
SPX 60m What to look for
What's working for the bears? MACD, RSI and ROC are all solidly heading south. MACD is still pretty high at 5.88. RSI is back under 50. The ma10 is under the BB 20ma and we're trading under the ma10. SPX still has not retraced 50% off of the 714 low. CPC is finally turning from the most bullish point in ages.
What's working for the bulls? Futures are up decent (at this time) Vix is approaching being overbought. SPX trading near bottom of BB's. The 50ma has crossed both the 100 and 200 ma's. All these ma's will provide additional support. My $$ G SPX 60m chart shows how SPX is usually held back by the interaction with the 200ma. This time it ran higher above the ma more than any other time in P1 except for WAVE 2. We might be in the 2.1 wave here of P2. Good support nearing the retracement area between 758 and 748.
What do I think? After digesting Dan and Kenny's fine work and a few others.looking at everything, and since we've had roughly a 5% pullback in the market and it may be time for a breather I'm looking at a consolidation period that confuses everyone (this is a less sophisticated way of saying what Kenny thinks). Possibly some form of triangle that coils to the next fall. Volume has been on and off and will likely reman that way. I'm going to speculate that the bulls put up a good fight, but the bears bring it back to at least the 741 range before the next serious move up. 712 is not out if the question yet. It appears that everyone has given up on sub 700. There will be a pop, but it won't be much of one though. 60m S Sto is bottoming out (and could embed) but the other indicators still have some room to fall, 30m looks ready to run but the daily is topped out and the weekly VIX MACD has a bull cross going. This cross might have the power to drive the market thru the serious support that the ma's and retracement areas will provide. Getting back under the 200ma will be a fight I'm betting. SPX may want to lift early in the week, but the fall will continue. Folks, everything sucks and the market knows it. Greed will take the market up higher than it deserves, just not till after earnings season has finished IMHO.
Thursday, March 19, 2009
This is how I see it.
Wednesday, March 18, 2009
CPC - remember this chart?
Tuesday, March 17, 2009
Where are we now REDUX!
Monday, March 16, 2009
What is this fall made of?
What is this fall made of is the question. How strong? How long? Well, to answer that question we have to find the answer to another first. Where are we in the count? Well, no one seems to be quite to sure about that. P(1), 4.5 or 5.5 are the three possibilities and they will each deliver a different result. As far as my preference, I have none. As far as my thoughts, I do not know. All I know is what the chart has delivered for the past two weeks and when this move down stops, we'll all then have a greater degree of confidence as to where we are in the count.
Very overbought conditions finally came to roost at 774 SPX. Where have I heard that number? Was it my March 8th post? "As for my target of 4.5, 774 to 807 is it." Thought I heard that number somewhere. I had begun him-hawing with 771 like everyone else, but held true to the number. Overbought, AA helping after hrs with a dividend cut, falling out of the wedge and all the indicators in a nose dive. Sounds easy right? Don't be fooled and get all giddy about new lows.
Now lets get to where we are going from here. First we have to figure out which bottom to take our retracement from 667 or 672 or 717. Uh oh, three bottoms? Yup, I could throw in a couple more but won't. How about key support levels? 732, 724, that zone from 710 to 715 all are valid. Uh oh, lots of support levels? Yup, I could throw in a couple more but won't. What was that you were saying about three scenarios for where we are? Yup, I could throw in a couple more but won't. I thought this was gonna be easy? Nope, nothing easy about where we are right now.
Sorry about that last exercise, but it was partly for humor and partly to describe how difficult it is to determine just where we are gonna stop. I lied above. I do have a preference. I have been guessing 5-3-5 or zig-zag all along, and lord knows how long I have been spouting off about how hard 4.5 was gonna be when we got here to figure out cause 2.5 was simple. I do not think 4.5 is over just yet and all the stocktockers spewing 625 targets, get a hold of yourselves. We gots to take babuh steps heugh. Work this fall down retrace by retrace, support by support and when the indicators say it is time to get long then you get long just like we got short here at the top. Thus, I am not predicting a target for the fall, because I have NO CLUE where we are in the cycle.
I'll pay attention to the indicators and when they say turn and where they say turn we'll then have a better idea in the cycle of life. I'm still voting 4.5, yes. I think this fall will be less severe than most. If we take out 710 (which I am not remotely thinking about right now) I may be come a believer in 5.5. I'll watch the 60m ma10 and BB20ma interaction. As most of you know the ma10 is one of my favorite indicators to watch. You may be late to the party, but I guarantee you'll be at the right party.
Let's start with SPX 732.40 as the first target and work our way down to the 715 - 710 zone. Watch the indicators closely (I'm sure I said that already). At this time I actually prefer the zig-zag off the 731 back to retest the 774 and possibly still be in 4.5. That is what I really like, but I'm not married to it. Watch the indicators and the charts and do what they say to do. Don't get caught up in the bottom calling mumbo jumbo. This is not the place to make a call or get over convicted to one side or the other. I'm short in SDS, BGZ, EEV and some other stuff. I'll peel some off as the indicators tell me to. I ain't skeered to get lung ethugh.
Good luck and keep your powder dry (especially for the bull run that is just around the corner).
Sunday, March 15, 2009
Saturday, March 14, 2009
Looking for the bottom
After looking at Daneric and Kenny's stuff, I started looking for the bottom. In my post below from 3/10 Why am I perplexed I noted some strange things that may have proven to be more right than wrong. I was perplexed because of being blinded by bearishness when the charts might might have been telling me to be bullish. I built this chart and then added the wedge and count. It is quite possible that the E touch is in on the falling wedge. I have not given up on my What's Happening post wedge from below. So many points to consider. In my search for the wedge I have two counts now. One will be right, just will have to let the market tell me. Fortunately we have the ability to play it either way! The whipsaw on the weekly MACD indicator had me confused as well. Well, maybe the bottom is in and that was a signal. At least now my keys for breakout and bottom marking can be better defined. We still have a long way to go to get out of this mess globally and the bullishness of this run may be just another head fake. If wave 4.5 violates the blue dashed top channel line, I'll most likely assume the bottom is in. I'll point his out now and here - REMEMBER THE BACK TEST if it does break. That may set the ultimate bottom on some type of capitulation move. The charts will tell us. Like Craig says, trust the charts and keep emotions out of it. Have a good weekend.
Friday, March 13, 2009
Thursday, March 12, 2009
IMVHO We turn tomorrow.
SPX at top of rising wedge and all indicators in the cheap seats. I'm thinking 5-3-5 to the top of 4 at 774 and we're due to pop off some steam. We're at a good resistance point.
Wednesday, March 11, 2009
How 4.5 might play out
UPDATE: I have updated this chart at stockcharts and have drawn some dashed lines as possibilities. There is a blue dashed that forms a steeper rising wedge. If the weekly and daily SPX indicators keep rising I think 750 SPX gets taken out. That is pretty bullish. Above 741 I'll begin lookig to leave longs. At this time I think we rise off the pullback this morning. Still in longs. As I have noted if we take out the 712 range and you are long I'd be very careful.
Of course this is a pipe dream, but as many of you know I like to try and find the patterns and possibilities as early as possible. I found this triangle that works well with what 4.5 (or iv.3.5 as Craig (who's Craig?) pointed out on Stocktock last night) needs to do and with something that will throw the market down when the pattern ends. The rising wedge that is forming is too wide and would requite quite the run up, so I went this rout. A throwover on the e leg to DE's 741 would be just fine. This still works in my Whats Happening? scenario post below since E can come up short of the trendline.
Tuesday, March 10, 2009
Why am I perplexed?
One last point on the VIX. On the weekly chart there is a positive divergence on the MACD histogram, the S Sto is turning up and trying to cross the ema 20 (one of my fav indicators for a turn), ROC is at 0 and RSI is at 50. This would indicate a bullish turn for the VIX which I'm assuming is going to whipsaw a weekly chart? This actually fits with the VIX remaining in the wedge. Go figure in this market. I guess my solace is that Kenny proved he is human and so did Daneric at the bottom of 5.3.5. Even Dano after a magnificent call all the way down was looking for the VIX pop to the first gap. Maybe he was left a little miffed as well? I have no idea how either of them do it. They are incredible.