Sunday, March 8, 2009
Sorry I have been away, but work life and play have had me hostage. The falling wedge play looks good to me. This may be a pipe dream, but the more it plays out the better it keeps looking. At one time I had his as a decending triangle, but the wedge it became. The current bottom is also touching a falling channel that has been in play since wave 1 bottom. We climb up for 4.5 then the fall for 5.5 to the bottom of all bottoms just looks right. As we continue the pattern trading ranges narrow and to come off the bottom we need a catalyst and what better catalyst than a falling wedge to propel us back up. Ah, don't forget the back test! As for my target of 4.5, 774 to 807 is it. That is too high according to Kenny, but he's only 10pts under me. I like the intersection of the upper trend line with the 38.2 retracement and resistance as the target. It does not have to touch this line it just looks good (maybe too good to be true).
On a side note I am struggling to believe that 3.5 is over. While it most likely is and the positive divs look really good, the indicators on most charts still look like crap. The pop for 4.5 should be a pretty quick ABC or zig-zag. Have your powder dry for hte fall of 5.5. Good luck!!