Friday, June 28, 2013

Open Weekend Post 06/28-29/13

You know the drill, share the love and the knowledge.

I'll be around checking things out. I'll update and throw up some charts if I see anything that may matter. Of course we all know the only thing that matters is QE talk and we just follow the bouncing ball. That does not mean there may not be a nugget hidden in the charts though.

Post your thoughts and links below for all to see. Thanks for another great week on the blog. I really appreciate everyone's effort. Great job!

Enjoy the weekend.

GL and GB!

Morning Charts 06/28/13 SPX /ES

On the travel/home computer so things look and are a bit different. Just a few charts for y'all this morning.

Minis 4hr - STB point where hot pink crosses pink is at 1636 on 07/01 (rather than 30 on the 3rd on the work computer) right at the 61% retracement. This computer has the blue s/r diagonal (that used to be the IHnS neckline we were looking at last week) which sits around 1658 and the 78% retracement.

Minis 60m - price is battling with the green near term upper channel resistance and the 38% retracement here near 0607. Thsi is my first major resistance area.

Minis 30m - A closer look at the yellow rising channel. I want a rising wedge to form but may not get it.

Thursday, June 27, 2013

Morning Charts 06/27/13 SPX /ES

Why don't we keep it simple today with a couple of chats and a few words of advice.

Advice first - They control everything. Get used to it. Nothing is real. What you know to be true is true, but we live and play in their fabricated reality, one day the bears will be very right but till then nothing is real.

Minis 4hr - Thru 1595 and I'd like to welcome all STB passengers to the first major resistance destination 1603 area, the 38% retracement and the green channel resistance. Anyone departing here please get all your belongings and watch your ass as this journey may only be halfway thru. For those staying on the bus (yup, bus - sorry - it is a nice coach bus with plush seating - we're in a recession so the G IV was out of the budget) our journey to the second major resistance destination just got a little longer.

What used to be 1620 is now closer to 1630 and the backtest of LT pink channel support. Interestingly enough the new hot pink resistance and channel backtest support make for an interesting STB point near 07/03 at 1630. I wish it were in the channel, but if you look out your right window you may see a rising wedge forming that will get us to that point.

Minis 30m - A closer look at the map show our buss departing from the edge of oblivion as the Fed gives us a turbo boost combined with a ton of false bullish information from the MSM, BLS and other various mouthpieces of the establishment. Your captain (that'd be me) can get a bit confused with all the noise and bad is good and good is bad mumbo jumbo, so it's best if he just sticks to the map/charts for our navigation.

Funny thing is we're at a fork in the road where a hard unannounced right hand turn may be in order, so make sure all your belongings are secure. If we should continue straight the next minor attraction is near 1622. Then we'd continue on to our second major destination at 1630 sometime next week. At that point I suspect the journey thru the mountains will have everyone wanting to puke and a mass exodus will be occurring. Heck, the buss may even fall off the cliff at that point.

Note 1608 makes for a perfect ABC, if she turns there I will order an immediate evacuation of the bus.

More to come below. Thanks for traveling STB bus Lines. Maybe next time we can go on a cool boat or something.

Have a good day.

GL and GB!

Wednesday, June 26, 2013

Morning Charts 06/26/13 SPX /ES

Last August I warned of unprecedented intervention and we got it. This summer I think the theme needs to be a warning centered around unprecedented lying. This obviously is the last stage of denial and leads to an end game scenario.

When you are out of money and you can't get any more you need to think fast on your feet. You want creditors off your back and to keep that illusion alive that you are Billy Bad Ass, the richest kid on the block. You'll do anything to keep the illusion alive and the crowd cheering you on. That's the state of the Fed and our financial system.

They may still be driving a Maserati and living in a big mansion, but don't look inside if you don't want to know the truth. They are dead ass, I'm talking worse than Ramen noodles dog food broke, and here comes line after line of shit so thick to cover it that Mt. Everest may even go under.

Lies, that's all they got left. Yeah, yeah, that's the ticket! Sadly the sheeple will go along blindly with anything they say. Even after all we've been through, all the corruption that has been exposed, all the printing, all the BLS BS the sheeple will still follow cause they are too afraid to challenge or leave the system. the Fed knows that when they get to the cliff the will jump and the lemmings will follow without questioning anything (if we've not taken that leap already).

Oh, don't forget the war for distraction policy as well. Syria, yeah, they have that fuse ready to light at a moment's notice.

On to the lie -

Well, they are fighting back. Do you believe a word they say? The MSM after the AP glitch is right back under mama's wing and promoting that good times are back.

SPX Daily - No change from yesterday. They took it to the pink backtest and the stick save commenced. I'd like to see the SPXA50 (top indicator) hit 100 before we see a reversal. That is not necessary, but with the NYMO the only one with a positive divergence happening here there could be a little drift south left. I'll be looking for that and the first MACD histogram rise for signs a BTFD turn is in.

Tuesday, June 25, 2013

Morning Charts 06/25/13 SPX /ES

Again, what's the point?

"It was shaping up to be another bloodbathed session, with the futures down 10 points around the time Shanghai started crashing for the second night in a row, and threatening to take out key SPX support levels, when the previously noted rumor of an imminent PBOC liquidity injection appeared ex machina and sent the Shanghai composite soaring by 5% to barely unchanged, but more importantly for the all important US wealth effect, the Emini moved nearly 20 points higher from the overnight lows triggering momentum ignition algos that had no idea why they are buying only knowing others are buying."

and then this follows -

"The May Durable Goods data released moments ago (which like in previous instances will almost certainly be revised downward subsequently but is enough to trigger kneejerk momentum response algos) was better across the board, printing at a 3.6% increase in May on expectations of a 3.0% rise, down from an upward revised 3.6% in April. Virtually all of the pick up in new orders was due to a surge in Boeing orders, which recorded 232 new plane orders, of which however half were orders (funded by still cheap credit) for planes still in the design phase. "

No, you can't make this shit up, but they can!

Daily SPX - Busted pink upper rising wedge resistance backtest competed. IF, if the bulls are gonna make a move this is their spot. I don't see how, but then again who could have seen "how" to any of this mess for the past 4 or so years? Travesty is a trite word these days that does little good to describe the rape of the financial system these days. They would need some form of divine intervention to take this thing to a higher high from here (and I'm not talking from above). The top was an E point overthrow of the final rising wedge formation of a multi-year "bull" market. She's working her way to oversold, but the only positive divergence is in the NYMO. Not that any of that matters. Just play the rumors and scalp their momo. That's all you need to do.

Minis 4hr - See that yellow support diagonal in the lower right corner? That is the cliff's edge. They are trying to avoid that (1548) at all cost. Green channel support is pretty evident as the 4hr has spiked thru but not closed below this line. If they can fight thru 1578 then 95 is the next stop. A backtest of the pink (LT channel support) should be in order. If it hits that, I'll call a top.

More to come below.

Have a good day

GL and GB!

Monday, June 24, 2013

Morning Charts 06/24/13 SPX /ES

I'll keep the post really simple this morning - only 100% completely rigged market would be at these levels given everything that is and has happened globally over the past five years. I'm not sure if end of taper talk can save them now, but I guarantee that the slightest chance of continued easing is the only reason the SPX is above 1300 (or less) right now. Everyone is in on the lie. Everyone knows nothing is real. Everyone just turns their head and prays they don't take the money away.

Again, I'm not sure why I need to sit here and remind you that China is imploding. run thru the weekly PIIGS decimation report, Japan, cover the never ending BS from the BLS and all the other really bullish economic activity (bad is good). You can't miss the news these days (well, if you read the right sites on the internet). None of it matters when they have co located servers that preempt all trading activity, and a margin account that can cover half the total market.

There is no need for charts to spy a top. That will happen when they decide. Maybe they are prepared for the top or maybe this is a trial run to feel the market's reaction out. The  charts will one day work quite well marking downside targets and support points. Maybe this is the time. Maybe someone finally took a bullet in the game of global financial Russian roulette?

The charts are ready, the ending year lone rising wedge the overthrew the top line resistance should be the end all formation. the top should be set. I really don't see how they can fend off much more of the economic malaise. Over over a year and a half ago I gave them to the first quarter of 2013 as the end point for all this BS. Only because of a last blast of desperation did my call not make it. It appears I missed the call by one quarter. Sorry when looking that far into the future things are not always so clear (/s).

On to the lie -

Friday, June 21, 2013

Open Weekend Post 06/22-23/13

You know the drill, share the love and the knowledge.

I'll update charts and see if there is anything interesting to post. Downside targets are prolly the most enticing things to look for now. This Daily chart has a plethora of them (green up arrows) for you to contemplate.

Enjoy the weekend.

GL and GB!

Moar-ning Charts 06/21/13 SPX /ES

Wow, here we are again with so much crap going down I'm not sure where to start. The financial crisis is finally coming home. Reality is finally getting the upper hand. Central planning, greed and corruption are starting to lose and the people are slowly coming to a boil. How close we are to the end game and complete financial destruction is an unknown, but one thing that is for sure is with every passing day that reality comes exponentially closer. The Fed's and government's policies to support the lies, fallacies and fantasies can not go on forever. 

China, Brazil (Brazil - of all places - how do you screw that one up? Energy independent with the hottest women on the planet and all that coastline.), Spain, Greece, Syria, want me to go down the whole list? These countries and countless more are all on the financial ropes. Funny though that the fall off the top and the crash yesterday has nothing to do with any of this. It was all because of one man's threat to take the hopium away. 

Fundamentals no longer matter. Nothing matters other than the great cash machine continuing to print moar and moar and never stopping. Consequences? What are those? Just friggin print and keep on printing. 

Of all the advancements, great discoveries and sheer brilliance the human race has achieved over the past five billion years of this planet's existence, this is the best financial and governance system they could come up with? Ah, greed, it rules and permeates everything to the core. 

There was a great man about 2000 years ago that warned us of this. It appears His teachings are fading faster than Obummer's approval rating. We're on the cusp of a great global religious, environmental, political, social, economic and financial rebalancing. 

The only way for those in power to remain in total control is through ever increasing coercion, blackmail, brutality and bribery. Sadly those methods are increasing in intensity as control begins to slip through their hands. 

Get ready for the worst folks, cause when their charade is over so will be life as you know it. Depression era hardships will be a cakewalk compared to where we're headed. 

On to the lie - 

SPX Daily - The great wedge to end the great run is finally ending. The E overthrow point of the rising wedge, a topping signal, is finally starting to wear on price. I knew TA would get it right all along regardless of the central planning manipulation. TA has a funny way of being able to time things and the taper came at the top. Pretty cool stuff.  

Thursday, June 20, 2013

Moar-ning Charts 06/20/13 SPX /ES

OK, now I got that out of my system....

One simple rule - No QE = No Market. I'm not sure how they intend on managing this crisis, but it looks like the market crash before the war to cover it up STB scenario could be coming into play. The STB vacation crash scenario is also in play as well.

Let's review - I wanted 1595 off the top, at the low 1640 was the retrace with 51 as the bear's last stand, a final move to the double bottom, an ABC retrace and then poop. We're at the poop stage. The tug-o-war that has been going on for the past two weeks may be nearing an end. The bulls just had a dramatic bullish setup fail in their face. 1596.5 is the low number we need to be watching. The sell stops are not far under that point.

Minis 60m - This is pretty much it. This is the dividing line between bull and bear control. Changing charts to the travel computer here, two major support points just busted. The white channel backtest and the green LT diag support just cracked. This is a moment of great concern. The PPT is on full alert this moar-ning.

Minis 4hr - Awful chart for detail, but it is here to show you the massive supportless area below price here. I may rework it a bit since I have not used it in a few weeks. Remember I am hoping for a larger HnS to set this top and have been looking to the 1541 area as a neckline. This computer says that could be as low as 30. If that fails and price just tanks, so be it. I won't complain one bit. Your lower numbers are 93, 61, 30 and 1485. I still like the HnS as the PPT and the CB's should fight back at some point and go for one last short squeeze. I have warned for some time of increased volatility nearing the coming, if not set, top. You are getting that now and it should continue.

The bulls (not you RL) are retarded and they only see one direction. There is a slight chance they make one last run at some point. Never forget they are in total control and everything is centrally planned. Never forget that. Nothing is real, nothing! Always keep that in mind. It will be real one day when they lose control, but till then expect the unexpected and trade accordingly. Do not fall in love with any one position and believe there are any sure bets out there. Babysit everything. With the taper they will have to become even more creative with their ramping techniques and I assume method numero uno will be the short squeeze. So be careful and wary to that fact.

SPX Daily - Blue support should crack after the open. That may take out the 50dma as well, so 1618 is the first wall that has to go. Then there is the lower BB at 10, then black support at 05 and then nothing at all to  the 38% retrace near 1520. That is a massive hole and trust me the central planners see it cause those meatheads created it.

Let's remain calm yet again. Dire times abound, but everything is under their control. You may be witnessing a glorified Hollywood script being played out. This is a new paradigm, central planning, get used to it. I do believe that one day history will rule and natural forces will take down the system, but till then you must remain patient and play their game.

Have a good day.

GL and GB!

I Think I Blew A Gasket - No, Seriously 06/20/13

Post FOMC farce. Tempted not to post anything in protest of, well, everything. I'm tired of the lies, corruption and manipulation. Market is total BS. Nothing is real anymore. I guess we must trudge on. Quitting now would make everything since starting the blog in '09 pointless, so we'll just have to redouble the efforts and smash these forkers even harder. I've never been one to kick someone while they are down, but these sumbitches need to be tarred and feathered or worse for their actions. Destroying this country is not cool, and I personally will not stand idle while they attempt to (which is what they are doing by the way - destroying our rights and privileges and transferring all the riches and power to the elite - if you can't see this by now you are pretty much hopeless).

This Andrew Jackson quote has been in the header of STB since its inception for a darn good reason, "I am one of those who do not believe that a national debt is a national blessing, but rather a curse to a republic; inasmuch as it is calculated to raise around the administration a moneyed aristocracy dangerous to the liberties of the country." I believe it perfectly frames our situation today. 

I suggest you read Who Are The Real Traitors from ZH. It is long, very (as in too) long, but important on many levels. It details historical ideals and how today's politicians have corrupted everything. You need to know this is real. I've often spoken about crossing that line between reality and unicorns. Now is the time to remove the cloak of safety and delusion and open yourself up to the harsh cold facts.

Man I could go on a massive rant now, but will refrain. Those will come soon and in greater frequency as I get back to where STB started - anger driven rage at the system that is has destroyed this once great nation. Let me remind you that this is not all the government's fault. We're just as much to blame. Our self-absorbed, selfish, lazy, uneducated, greedy, trusting, ignorant and lackadaisical selves are probably more responsible than anything.

Keep reading below - it gets better -----

Wednesday, June 19, 2013

Morning Charts 06/19/13 SPX /ES

Like I have been saying all week, wait on the Fed and the administration to make their move. Back in '10 and '11 the top calls were so simple cause they told us when QE would end. Are we getting ready to get the signal again? One problem, this time will be different cause now everyone knows about and understands QE and its sole purpose. 

ZH has "Tomorrow Is The Big Daywhere we get, "If the Fed’s economic forecast remains unchanged, the reduction in the amount of QE purchases (a.k.a. tapering ) should commence in September or October.  If the forecast is raised, then look for tapering to commence in July or September.   If the economic forecast is lowered, then tapering is pushed back to December or 2014. " If this is true, the market will not wait to the end of the liquidity flow to nose dive this time. It will commence tomorrow. So, we wait for their direction and then do as we are told. It is foolish to try anything else. 

The minis (/es SPX futures) is to me the best chart to follow right now. It tells the best story and gives the cleanest picture. I did update a few charts in the chartbook last night. You can go there if you want to see more. You can take a peek at this monthly chart to see how improbable the bull's situation appears for further (natural at least) price appreciation. This thing is beyond red lined and has been since 1422. 

SPX 60m - This is the chart from yesterday morning's post. It shows the clear green channel down into critical long term pink support After testing this support twice and setting a double bottom (possible W or IHnS) they managed to crank off another improbable run out of nowhere for no known reason and crack upper channel resistance. 

Tuesday, June 18, 2013

Morning Charts 06/18/13 SPX /ES

Again, I see no reason to post anything relevant today as we wait for the G summit and the FOMC to create the market moving news. Taper, war and fascism are the only things that you should be concerned about today. Taper - they have to do but can't, and this is the only thing that moves markets significantly these days. War - gotta have one to distract everyone from reality, to get the banks more billions funding both sides of the conflict and to appease the military industrial complex. Fascism - secure the president to the end of his term (if not longer) thru war and the rapid advancement of the police state.

There you have it all in a nutshell this morning. Funny, those all used to be considered complete conspiracy theory, then they became disputable and now they are conspiracy fact that I don't even have to back up with factoids anymore. Can you say game over?

On to the lies -

Again, not really sure anything is needed here. Yesterday was a perfect example. The Fed makes a great stick save at critical support, drives price up on zero news, then taper talk hits and price gets slammed to first support and then price drifts higher again for no specific reason. Two words - Central Planning. Nothing is real and they control everything.

Minis 60m - This is the best chart I got right now. Potential double bottom W formation or and IHnS or a cup and handle - all bullish above critical pink support with channel resistance(green) busted and backtested. The 43 to 50 area is critical resistance. 1611 is critical support. Any significant move beyond either and the move in that direction has potential to be large and in charge.

So we sit and wait on the G meeting and the FOMC to show us their hand. I would not do anything prior to them telling you the next move in their centrally planned world. Then follow their lead. It is that simple. Oh, of course you have to remove your brain from the equation and take everything that is rel and logical and lock it in a drawer.

More to come below as usual. Thanks for being here.

Have a good day.

GL and GB!

Monday, June 17, 2013

Morning Charts 06/16/13 SPX /ES

I'm not going too deep with the post for three reasons -

1) The government is in deep shit and is getting ready to crank up distraction central. War, false flag, you name it they need it and more right now. With the G meeting this week and the revelation of us spying on G members at past meetings I'm totally sure global cooperation will be at new highs since our NSA knows the most sensitive details of each attendee's most private conversations.

2) The Fed meets this week. See more on this below.

3) The market is in a most precarious position technically as I showed last week and in the Open Weekend Post. Price's ominous predicament is a big deal, but that really does not matter cause the only relevant thing that moves price is taper talk. And what's the skinny behind all of that? Well, the Fed can't artificially levitate markets and keep rates artificially low printing $85 billion or more per month forever all the while their "mandates" are failing one after the other.

Denninger has a good post where he concludes, "This is not because Bernanke wants to stop (QE).It is because he has to.The math says so, and he knows it." But we all  at STB know he can't, or else. So as we've been discussing forever, no matter which path they choose they both lead to the same dismal result. Remember a few years back when we used to have "math" lessons and proved things will never work?

I suggest you take a look at bank confidence around the globe. I'm pretty sure confidence in governments globally is a bit worse. So why is nobody doing anything about it? Why the paralysis? Let's not go there today, you know exactly what rant I have on that subject.

On to the lie -

SPX Daily - Same thing we've been looking at for a few days now. Red LT chan support is gone, then blue and black support are in play with the 20 and 50dma's with the lower BB. Note the RSI support line I have drawn. Something has to crack one way or the other.

Friday, June 14, 2013

Open Weekend Post 06/15-16/13

You know the drill, share the love and the knowledge.

Tough spot for the market with the world crumbling down around it. The market remains precariously poised to either breakout or collapse. Sad to realize that even under these horrific conditions the fear of higher highs and uncontrolled ramps higher are  real possibilities. Ah, the wondrous world of central planning.

Minis 60m - The falling channel and its upper (green) resistance is drilling down into the long term rising (pink) channel support with key ma's all around price here. She's going one way or the other early next week. I'll look for more technical clues over the weekend, but the markets remain mainly taper news driven. We're still at Hilsenrath's mercy I guess.

Minis 4hr - You can see the larger picture here with the pink channel up and green channel driving down into support. The yellow rising diagonal is the old rising wedge upper resistance. 1541 is acting as a potential neckline as I have been proposing as a possible head and shoulders forming here. A pipe dream I know, but if we are topping that is one formation you want to start searching for. Another formation would be a descending triangle, which a smaller one with a 1596 neckline could be forming here.

I'll post more charts and commentary over the weekend.

Something came up in comments Friday I want to address real quick. I'm very happy with the board. Y'all don't change a thing. Stay the course, each of you. If I had any issues you'd know it. We're all adults. We're all under tremendous stress. We're all handling things the best way we know how.

STB is here for you, not me. Rant away and let it all out, just always remember to try your best to remain respectful to others. You are free to disagree with anyone or thing including me. STB is not a fascist totalitarian state like the one we live in. You still have original constitutional rights here (combined with my simple rules of course). Be yourself. Have fun. Share with others. We are a community. It will never be perfect, but it is pretty darn good thanks to all of you.

Note to the lurkers - get on out there. I was once a commentary reader only and it changed my life once I came out of the closet and got involved. Share your knowledge, post links, ask questions - just get involved. I think you'll be better off for it. Any former lurkers that would like to leave testimony to this fact can below.

Enjoy the weekend.

GL and GB!

Morning Charts 06/14/13 SPX /ES

Has someone around here been all but screaming about a war sooner than later? This may be a bit before they are ready, but as I've been describing, potus needs one in a big way. After all, he's only done 18 fundraisers this year, so he needs something to do other than raise money, spend tens of millions of sequester funds traveling, play golf and defend his administration against nefarious whistle blowers and bogus claims of constitutional rape.

Well, we may not be at war now (outside of an active currency and cyber war that no one will officially admit), but Syria is just about to get out of hand. Yes folks, it is time for us to side with Al CIAda and fight with our terrorist brothers! Goooo AmeriKa! Get that puppet dictator in so you can secure that pipeline for the big oil companies! Start that war so the banks can fund both sides and make trillions. Free the military industrial complex and unleash the drones!

U.S.: Syria used chemical weapons, crossing "red line" Maybe nothing will spark till after the G8 meeting next week. We all know the nobel peace prize winner will not do anything without the UN's direction, so never mind congress' approval. They just need the legal go ahead from the NWO.

I thought the market may need to crash first. Will it or did it and we just did not see it? I know what I saw yesterday. Another improbable ramp for no reason, on bad news, protecting the bull's last line of defense with precision and making a statement in the process. Bottom line, like we've been saying for over a year now, they can not let the market fall. You just witnessed all the cabal's power in one concise shot.

I still question if they are using the ramp to distract us from something else (think transparency) and are creating room for a SHTF moment that has already happened. Japan is deep in the bowl spinning clockwise and about to go under. Greece, Spain, the EU and much more - They are out of printable bullets and have finally reached the point they need a major distraction before global bail-ins. Now Syria may not escalate right away, but it at least has apparently started. Now we know their play.

On to the lie -

I'm not going to waste anymore time on this crap this week. I wanted 95 for a second time on the minis, got it, they had me looking, but not calling, lower and then wham o! It's a crock. We know it. We're used to it. I alluded to what they could do yesterday and they did it again. They can't keep this up and one day it will fail. Till then, you have to expect nothing less than the new normal BTFD guarantee.

Daily SPX - Look closely at the candle action over the past two weeks. Although that qualified as a bullish reversal yesterday price is still capped by the 20dma, the 37 resistance area and the backtest of busted red channel support. Of course (as witnessed yesterday for the umpteenth time) technicals really don't matter anymore, but let's pretend they just might.

Thursday, June 13, 2013

Morning Charts 06/13/13 SPX /ES

SHTF in Japan? Is their game finally over? We better start asking that question and be prepared for that reality and the global shockwave if so. Flack jackets, hard hats and prepare to duck and cover. Remember what to do if you see a bright flash. The PPT, the Fed and the MSM can only do so much to protect themselves (note: not us, but them).

I think it is finally time to bring back Bert the Turtle and the Duck and Cover vid. (watch it all if you've never seen it before - warning - the tune is a bit catchy)

Monkeyhammered Nikkei Plummets 6% On Risk Exodus could be considered a new morning ritual post on ZH.

If our bond market reacts appropriately then the Nikkei will not be the only market getting monkeyhammered. Again, we know the fire drill all to well. The PPT will have all guns a blazin, all the algos and the HFT bots will be on the "right" side of the trade, the money presses will be running at full steam and CNBS will be talking new highs here while everything melts down around us. The worst part to that - it will work for them again most likely.

The news flow has come so hot and heavy over the past two weeks I'm not sure anyone has been able to report it fully nor digest it all properly. I know I'm struggling to keep up. Can you say climax? That may go for the markets as well. Separating truth from fiction has become nearly impossible. One thing that is for sure, that hair trigger has gotten even lighter, and it won't take much to start a panic and for us to get another flash crash. Maybe they have the IRS agents training with AR 15's for a good reason? The DHS has ordered riot control equipment. You think they are expecting "something"? Ah, the new AmeriKa. Isn't it just great!

Before we get to the markets - the Fed's first knee jerk reaction and one that must be noted is the dollar plummeting to and cracking LT support (yellow) off the double top with negative weekly divergences while interacting with long term resistance (green).

Next let's note TNX's (/zn) precarious position at support and just above must hold LT support levels.

To show you just where this market is teetering - if you don't follow the daily commentary below you miss all the action where this is covered in detail as the day goes by -

SPX Daily - Right now price is bound by the 20dma resistance and supported by the lower BB and the 50dma. Oh, yea. don't forget that blue last resort support diagonal. The first LT support that was the red channel is gone and has been backtested. See those green boxes? They could easily be in play if this support area goes. That RSI I have been pointing to is back in the breakdown danger zone again. This chart looks like the Fed gave it their best shot the last four days and may have failed.

Wednesday, June 12, 2013

Morning Charts 06/12/13 SPX /ES

We charted it up pretty good in the commentary yesterday, and I'm a bit burned out on railing against the police state right now. For those reasons (and I'm on my summer schedule) we'll keep it brief in the post and as the day goes by the detail will flow in the comments section (which is what you really need to read anyway).

Prolly the scariest thing I pointed out yesterday in the commentary was this chart on oil. Without going into any detail, which I doubt you need, my theory on a war coming sooner than later cause of market conditions and an administration in deep need of some serious cover could be reflected in this chart. TA has mysterious ways of predicting these things. We've been watching price consolidate in the green wedge for some time now and that is about to end. Price has been cooped up to long and will be looking to go somewhere sooner than later (and we all know where the elite want it to go). What a better way to end this scenario than with some real trouble in the MENA region.

Minis 60m - IHnS neckline at 44, 61% retracement at 51, green upper channel resistance here at 37 and pink channel up 50% diagonal all right here together. If not a IHnS then a possible CnH (Cup and Handle) could have rolled in.

SPX Daily - Bangin its head on all sorts of stuff here. RSI hanging right on that support line. If that goes so does the market. Pretty tedious point here. Fed running out of time as the bears have proven themselves willing and able to bring this thing down a notch if need be.

Tuesday, June 11, 2013

Morning Charts 06/11/13 SPX /ES

Minis off 14 and Japan in the picture again. See what happens when you cut off the hopium and now you know why the Fed will never stop easing. Greece needs another bailout (which intrinsically means someone  - or everyone - else in the EU needs cash in a bad way cause we all know that Greece is just a flow thru conduit to the rest of the banks). If history is still any indication the bond markets around the globe are telling us something is wrong (again). With the UST's at 14 month highs, the boat may be listing again. One has to assume that Spain will come up for air sooner than later.

Add Syria, Turkey, Iran, Iraq, China, Russia and a plethora of other country specific issues to the above. Throw in the administration's corruption issues and you get a quagmire of crap all swirling around at once. I'll ask again, how long can they keep the juggling act going before they start dropping a few balls?

On to the lie -

SPX 60m - STB had been discussing the 51 level, the 61% retrace, the backtest of the 20dma and the channel backtest as a point for the bear's last stand or else. Well it appears that Japan gave them the reprieve they needed at just the right time as the BTFDers are taking it up the backside this morning. Wonder how that feels? Wait a minute, as a bear I know all to well how it feels. Glad to see the bullys getting some of their own medicine. I'll have to look closer to see if the lower gap got filled. They conveniently left an upper gap this morning which all bears should notice. Other than all the resistance mentioned, the only clue this was coming was a turn in the MACD hist (which is always one of my fav early signals).

Monday, June 10, 2013

Morning Charts 06/10/13 SPX /ES

I've been writing about it for years. I've been telling people on the street for years. Everyone thought I was a nut. My rants and rages have been long and hard, but I have always spoken what I believed to be the truth the best way I knew how. My market corruption theories were proven fact, and now my government corruption theories have come home as well. Sadly, both were proven to be far worse than my feeble imagination could fathom.

I'm gonna let this PRISMgate play out a bit further before going to deep into it, but I will let you know my basic thoughts on the subject. Bottom line is the war between us and our government has begun. Sorry bout the analogy, but we're not going to allow ourselves to be hoarded on trains and be sent off to die. Some total idiot potus supporters will gladly do so, but the majority of us will take a pass this time. Maybe finally, before they got to write those atrocities out of the public school history books so we'd forget, we'll prove we've actually learned something from history.

So, will they be able to hang any of this on potus? Well, one thing that is for sure is the "it was Bush's fault" blame game no longer flies. One of two wrongs have happened on O's watch. Either he knew about it and directed all of this to happen which makes him impeachable, or it happened under his watch out of his control which makes him an impotent leader and impeachable. Maybe he'll come up with a new lie that is was all whitey's fault. He could not control the white establishment. Can't you see it coming? There is a bit of truth to that. Every potus is no more than a puppet, and in this case the establishment chose the greatest patsy to take the biggest fall for the job.

Remember, they must keep us divided as a nation for the establishment to retain power. Look at the results of the last election. A near 50/50 perfect split. They have us right where they want us. When the black man goes down for all of this you think the streets, already hyped to the max from economic despair, are going to remain civil? About the only thing civil coming is a civil war.

None of this started under O's watch. Sure he promised to end it all and brought hope that the ship would be set back on course. Sadly that hope was for the establishment and not the citizens of the US. You see, before 1999 the NSA had a back door into your computer thanks to Jobs and Gates and others and now we live in a world where the military brass ordering the troops not to read O scandal news. That's what I call progress, in the wrong direction.

The wars are coming. One will be global and the other local. Fortunately our government can't fight two fronts. They need a massive distraction and in a hurry. I've told you the markets are nothing more than a distraction to reality and we're getting ready to find that out. Prepare yourself. Oh, and if you think your funds are safe in a bank or investment account, you better think twice. Hell, for that matter if you think they are safe in dollars, you better think again as well.

On to the lie -

Back on the work computer, so I need to update the minis charts. The 40 retrace and neckline backtest was hit and has now busted. 1652 is the 61% retracement and the last line in the sand for the bears. Of the 82 good folks that have voted in the poll 58% do not think the top is set. I think it is a tough call, but I tend to agree. I'll prepare some prior top analysis to show you why I think some major volatility is coming, and why I think they have one last push in them.

SPX Daily - Not updated, but you get the picture. Like the 61% move in the minies, the 20dma backtest and the backtest of busted major red support here is a MAJOR point for the bears technically.

More to come below.

Have a good day.

GL and GB!

Friday, June 7, 2013

Open Weekend Post 06/08/09/2013

You know the drill, share the love and the knowledge.

Traveling, so not getting much out of me initially in this post. I'll update and share if I find anything compelling enough to share. You do the same below.

Don't forget to vote on the new STB poll question ---------->>>>>>>>>> over here ---->

Enjoy the weekend.

GL and GE!

Morning Charts 06/07/2013 SPX /ES

I've told you for years to purchase things with cash, especially gold and prepper items - WSJ Report: NSA Tracking Credit Card Transactions, Also Has Access To Phone Records From AT&T And Sprint Along With Verizon… . Apparently someone at the WSJ is ticked at their administration masters and is letting the dragons loose on the powers that be. Conspiracy theory becomes conspiracy fact yet again.

POLITICO is even getting in on the action with Government Source On Why He Leaked NSA’s Secret PRISM Program: “Horror At Their Capabilities,” “They Can Literally Watch Your Ideas Form As You Type”… This is truly amazing, after years of apparently off limits stuff and at a time when the administration is willing to string up anyone for the slightest breach of transparency, seriously damaging press is suddenly en vogue. This whistle blower actually cared enough about the country to go this far? "“Firsthand experience with these systems, and horror at their capabilities, is what drove a career intelligence officer to provide PowerPoint slides about PRISM and supporting materials to The Washington Post in order to expose what he believes to be a gross intrusion on privacy. “They quite literally can watch your ideas form as you type,” the officer said.”Well, good luck to them following my thoughts form. My handler must have a massive headache every day the way I jump around and bring my posts together.

This is a refreshing change, but one has to ask why? Why now and how, when we all know that the fascist socialist regime truly controls everything? When this administration has literally hammered whistle blowers worse than any administration in history? Why now are they disclosing that they have illegally been spying, storing and analyzing literally everything you've done electronically for years? Are we supposed to run scared? Is the government about to launch a full scale war on its own citizens with all this data? Is some form (outside of the IRS) of massive intimidation coming? Can the press actually report truthful and incriminating evidence against those in power without being persecuted? I have a feeling we're going to find out sooner than later if this is real or just a dream.

Bottom line is this administration is under fire. They've taken the Bush/Cheyney model and liberalized it to the extreme. These folks are way out of control and are finally being exposed for the horror story they truly are. It is no secret that this administration believes it is above the law. Hopefully the law will catch up to them in time, but I'm betting it wont. Why? Well outside of Holder being the biggest puppet of them all, and their ability to use the Patriot Act to enact presidential directives that are unconstitutional at their whim; what could cure all ills and set this administration above all criticism and endangerment? Simple, a war, a really big war. Peacetime a potus can be thrown under a bus, but during a time of war, this will prove to be much more difficult. Remember congress no longer has any say and potus can act now and ask later (Libya) when  it is too late to make a difference. Watch this and listen closely to remind yourself just how little power congress has left -

On to the lie -

Thursday, June 6, 2013

Morning Charts 06/06/2013 SPX /ES

6/6/6 (2+0+1+3) Could be an interesting day on many fronts. If there is a numerology day that one should be concerned about, this would be one of them.

And for your "warm and cozy" moment this morning - Obama Ramps Up Domestic Surveillance: Secret Court Order Requires Verizon To Hand Over All Call Records On A Daily Basis To NSA… Not sure where this fits into the bigger picture? I mean like there is no way they are just gonna blatantly spy on every American just cause they can. This is America, right? We do have laws and constitutional right, don't we?

On to the lie -

What to make of this correction? It appears that our markets are not at all pleased with the 20% puke fest that the Nikkei has experienced. But things were going so well? "Japanese stocks have just crossed over to the dark-side. After a glorious "well, the market is up, so everything must be great" rally of 85% in six months, the Nikkei 225 is now down over 20% from its highs - signifying a 'bear market'. This is the largest 10-day plunge in 27 months as volume has exploded on the downside."

NIKK Daily - Busting near term support, under the 50dma, just above a large gap, and at the 38% retrace - time for a pause and everyone to catch their breath or is it time for price to truly punish intervention for the falsehood that it is? Just like in the US, BS policies masking the truth will be unveiled. Japan is out of fiscal bullets and stimulus is/has failed. This is a good example of whats coming here so pay close attention.

SPX CPC - Note the VIX, the BPSPX and the four divergences in CPC (black dashed). If the bears can manage to crack that pink downtrend line things could get really ugly.

Wednesday, June 5, 2013

Morning Rant and Charts - What My Kids Need To Learn To Be a Successful potus - Shanktified - 06/05/13 SPX /ES

Disclaimer - total /sarc below. I think you will get my point by the end.

I understand that I'm being a bad AmeriKan when I lecture and teach my children to be clean, honest and respectable. I know it is horrible that I teach them to be responsible for their actions and if they make a mess they need to fix it or clean it up. They are going to grow up to be horrific citizens in the eyes of the government. I mean, it's not like I'm raising a future banker, Wall St. executive, congressman or president is it? If so, I've got it all wrong, very wrong.

GOP Rep. Jim Bridenstine’s (must see vid here) description of potus and his veep is so spot on that it needs to be repeated here, "“[Obama's] dishonesty, incompetence, vengefulness, and lack of moral compass lead many to suggest that he is not fit to lead. The only problem is that his vice president is equally unfit and even more embarrassing.”

What's the problem Jim? Having an illegal that is a glorified Kim Jong Un as potus is a problem? This man is perfect for the job, and if I'm responsible for raising the future of this country isn't this supposed to be the model I should follow? We really don't want kids like the Heroic Canadian schoolboy  who was disciplined for disarming knife-wielding classmate because it broke school rules to be involved in the future leadership of anything on this globe. My kids need to learn how to swindle, cheat and bribe their way to the top. They need to be heartless scumbags that will sell their souls to the likes of Monsatan and be willing to let their own father rot in poverty as they enjoy the excess they have confiscated. Most of all they need to learn to be a puppet to their masters.

They need to be willing to ignore the teachings of Jesus, Jefferson, Adams, Washington and the like and forge new paths for the country along their more selfish and personal guidelines no matter how anti-AmreiKan and Marxist they are. Scrap history and everything once deemed sacred, shove all that crap aside and forge a new path where they can build a power base so strong that not even the laws of the land have a chance in their wake.

They should become proficient at using the most powerful tools at their disposal like the IRS to reign in and shut down the undesirables.They need to learn to threaten and control the MSM so it will bow at their feet and print whatever propaganda is required without ever questioning anything they do. They need to learn to wage heartless and meaningless wars that destroy countries in the name of democracy and kill thousands of soldiers and innocent people in the name of corporate global dominance. Fortunately I think they have already learned how to spend like no tomorrow and ignore budgetary issues.

They need to set up a police state that scares and intimidates the shit out of everyone. One with internet, mobile, and every sort of surveillance possible, cameras everywhere, a state where no one can hide, all data is stored and analyzed where pre-crime arrests can be made before anything or anyone ever gets too far out of line. Maybe they could set up a unconstitutional domestic force used to feel up all the hot chicks and little children at airports and buy up billions or rounds of ammunition so there is none left for the citizens?

My kids need to be taught the art of using a good false flag event to their advantage. They need to learn to promise the moon with a straight face while whipping the ignorant masses into a frenzy and then pull a 180 and lie so well about the about face that everyone buys it. They need to learn to promote whistle blowing so the whistle blowers can be strung up by their balls from the highest tree. I guess I have erred in raising them as Christians as well, for those teachings are so outdated. They need to be Muslims for sure.

Sadly my kids will not have the biggest advantage of all. The one trump card that trumps all others. You see, my kids were born White. I know, they have all the advantages and such but one - the race card. Well, they don't need it, but it would be nice. If I follow the road map laid out above I believe the boys will be able to fit in somewhere in DC or on Wall St. Now if I could only find the perfect model for them to follow?

On to the lies -

Tuesday, June 4, 2013

Morning Charts and Fractal Lending 06/04/13 SPX /ES

This is a very important article for the uninformed that want to become informed and understand modern banking. Why the Fed Can't Stop Fueling The Shadow Bank Kiting Machine from Zero Hedge covers the topic from A-Z. From printing to inflating to investing, it is all in here and is a must read for all STB readers.

The problem today is the break with traditional money creation (yes, money creation) schemes and banks breaking the mold using new techniques to expand their hoard. "Where does the pyramiding come from if shadow banks aren’t making loans that get redeposited to fuel the cycle? Securities held as collateral by counterparties in a repo contract can be rehypothecated by the lender to obtain additional loans. (So can securities held in customer accounts, unless their brokerage agreements expressly prohibit it. This was an unwelcome discovery by MF Global’s hapless clients, who saw their assets whooshed off to London where different brokerage rules allow such hypothecation.) Loans made against securities held as collateral can then be used to either buy more securities, which can be fed back into the repo market, or trade a bewildering array of complex synthetic derivatives."

Yes, the Fed flat out prints money, there is no doubt to that, but the real money creation happens in the fractal lending, hypothecation and (hopefully) finally the rehypothecation of whatever securities are available. Banks have weaseled their way around regulation, dumped traditional lending avenues and created their own printing press of sorts. Sound practices? To them certainly, but when this system breaks, which it will, the devastation will dwarf the 2008 LEH crisis. For this reason the Fed can never stop printing, or their children, which have evolved to become parasites to their parent, will crash the system.

So why do the markets keep going up, cause the assets are necessary to feed the system. Just like the NINJA loans fed the RE bubble in 2007, now the assets in your investment and bank accounts (think O - MFG) feed the bank expansion. And some wonder why I warn that they will confiscate the retirement plans and capital controls on your bank and investment accounts actually exist. It is not your money, it is theirs, capisce? It started with them, they created it, it is theirs and they only let you borrow it (for a price of course). Isn't that nice. They get to make money out of thin air and then lend it to us with interest. Bottom line is without it, they die. Is it any wonder I often write that you need to exit the system and get out of dollar denominated assets?

From the above post, "As the debate drags on and global economic conditions worsen, the growing pyramid is being kept afloat by the easy money policies of central banks too frightened to withdraw their support lest a stock market correction trigger a cascade of margin calls that brings down the whole system—much like last time." We here at STB have discussed it for the past year now, they can not let the market even correct now or else. So, how comfortable are you looking at your account balance now? One question, is it real or is it Memorex?

On to the lies -

Tuesday, we all know what to expect today. Not sure whether to call it a joke or a gift when for almost the past half year you could bet green and hit 100% of the time. Is it just magical, or did you not read the above post close enough? Care to tell me how they reversed the Nikkei from doom and gloom all day yesterday to a +3% move overnight ? What, was it a headfake? Was the bad news not real?

SPX Daily - BB's narrowing and RSI support nearing, do we get a rinse/repeat? Bout every other month we get a 50 to 75 point "correction" and then they reignite the engines. Sad when the market "corrects" and the 20dma is all that is in play and they can't even scare the 50dma or the lower BB. I really don't think the want to bother with cracking that red support diagonal.

Add caption
It's Tuesday! Rock on Mr. Market! They can always print MOAR!

Have a good day.

GL and GB!

Monday, June 3, 2013

Morning Charts and BIS BS 06/03/13 SPX /ES

I saw this on ZH, "Markets Under The Spell Of Monetary Easing" Bank Of International Settlements Finds... Same As "Then"  and thought most of you might need a refresher course.

A little something you should know about - These suckers are the worst of the worst and truly control every aspect of anything financial on this planet. Bottom line is we all serve the BIS.

Bank for International Settlements

"The Bank for International Settlements (BIS) is an international organization of central banks which "fosters international monetary and financial cooperation and serves as a bank for central banks". As an international institution, it is not accountable to any single national government."

Yesterday this lovely little propaganda piece was printed in Reuters - BIS lays out "simple" plan for how to handle bank failures where "its plan would allow banks to be recapitalized quickly and easily and would allow authorities to give an unequivocal guarantee that insured depositors would not lose savings." That's all good and nice, but printing more money to save insolvent TBTF's is not a real solution is it? I guess when you are this deep into "it" solutions become easy. Actually, I'm not sure why they bothered to make the statement or even need the solution. How can a bank fail in this environment when those safeguards already exist to keep the banks alive in the first place? When fraud and corruption control the system, it's all good.

Now that Wiki post was mostly horse shit and so was the Reuters piece, but they were good primers. You need to read the Wiki and understand who they are. Not even Wiki is gonna outright diss the BIS and spill the beans for what they truly are. These assholes are the shit. Google your way around BIS and discover the truth for yourself. You will find a nice meld of conspiracy theory and conspiracy fact. I've been preaching the prowess of this crowd for years and you need to know what you can about the Bernank's big boss and who truly runs the show. Remember they are not accountable to any government.

On to the lies -