Thursday, June 13, 2013

Morning Charts 06/13/13 SPX /ES

SHTF in Japan? Is their game finally over? We better start asking that question and be prepared for that reality and the global shockwave if so. Flack jackets, hard hats and prepare to duck and cover. Remember what to do if you see a bright flash. The PPT, the Fed and the MSM can only do so much to protect themselves (note: not us, but them).

I think it is finally time to bring back Bert the Turtle and the Duck and Cover vid. (watch it all if you've never seen it before - warning - the tune is a bit catchy)

Monkeyhammered Nikkei Plummets 6% On Risk Exodus could be considered a new morning ritual post on ZH.

If our bond market reacts appropriately then the Nikkei will not be the only market getting monkeyhammered. Again, we know the fire drill all to well. The PPT will have all guns a blazin, all the algos and the HFT bots will be on the "right" side of the trade, the money presses will be running at full steam and CNBS will be talking new highs here while everything melts down around us. The worst part to that - it will work for them again most likely.

The news flow has come so hot and heavy over the past two weeks I'm not sure anyone has been able to report it fully nor digest it all properly. I know I'm struggling to keep up. Can you say climax? That may go for the markets as well. Separating truth from fiction has become nearly impossible. One thing that is for sure, that hair trigger has gotten even lighter, and it won't take much to start a panic and for us to get another flash crash. Maybe they have the IRS agents training with AR 15's for a good reason? The DHS has ordered riot control equipment. You think they are expecting "something"? Ah, the new AmeriKa. Isn't it just great!

Before we get to the markets - the Fed's first knee jerk reaction and one that must be noted is the dollar plummeting to and cracking LT support (yellow) off the double top with negative weekly divergences while interacting with long term resistance (green).

Next let's note TNX's (/zn) precarious position at support and just above must hold LT support levels.

To show you just where this market is teetering - if you don't follow the daily commentary below you miss all the action where this is covered in detail as the day goes by -

SPX Daily - Right now price is bound by the 20dma resistance and supported by the lower BB and the 50dma. Oh, yea. don't forget that blue last resort support diagonal. The first LT support that was the red channel is gone and has been backtested. See those green boxes? They could easily be in play if this support area goes. That RSI I have been pointing to is back in the breakdown danger zone again. This chart looks like the Fed gave it their best shot the last four days and may have failed.

The DOW is already gone. LT support has been toast and the 50dma here is now resistance.

And finally STB's bread and butter. I've been pretty much on fire calling the markets with the 1595 low, then the 40 retrace to the 51 must have top for the bears to a move back to 95 (and now possibly worse - still TBD). They closed the minis on the 50dma and it cracked last night. See that green support diagonal? That's the last hope. Bully has a shot here at the backtest of the busted falling channel resistance, but I'm not willing to bet on that. Below green support is only 95 before 75, 61 and then 31.

So. I'm still looking down to 1595 and am expanding those horizons.

US Open begins today!

If y'all should see Mrs. STB, wish her a happy anniversary. 21 years today. Damn, that's a lot of putting up with me.

Have a good day.

GL and GB!

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