Thursday, December 31, 2009

Happy New Year!

Happy New Year! Blow it out and have a great time!

Here is a gift for you!

Here is a pic of Shanky! (it was 4 degrees at time of pic ... BRRRRRR)

Morning Post

Sorry for cutting out on you all yesterday. I slept in and had a great day in the rockies. Shanky is in Crested Butte, Co. I am also sorry for not replying to comments as I did not touch a computer yesterday. Playing catch up this am. Thanks for your patience and understanding. I am on vacation and am really enjoying it.  Going a little over the top as this may be the last one we can really enjoy for a while. The crowds are thin and have been really weak this year. The recession has caught up to this tiny ski town. More on this next week.

I am looking to support the move your money cause.
The markets is going to shit all over it's self eventually.
The big boys (PIMPCO mainly - no one else really matters) are/have been moving to cash.
The perfect storm is coming IMO.

No charts this am. The altitude (9,756 where my butt is right now to be exact) must be getting to me. Sorry, but charting range bound crap has gotten old. I will say that the SPX appears to be in a parabolic top (like the top of a circle). Dan posted one of these a few months back in a slightly different scenario, but I am not charting it yet. Look at any daily chart and you'll see that it is rolling over here. Is this THE top? I do not know. First qtr earnings have me a little worried as a bear, but that should be the end of this BS run.

I have no words of wisdom this am either. OK, I have a few - ENJOY THIS NEW YEAR season. Make the most of it. Set your resolutions and stick to them. Write them down and keep them in a place where you will be able to refer to them often. Set the bar high, but not to high they can not be obtained. Keep faith, family and friends in the resolutions. They should not all be materialistic.

GL out there. I'll be getting cranked back up next week and, yes, some good rants are a brewin. One of my resolutions is to crank up the rants. Those fuckers deserve every bit of hell they can get.

Tuesday, December 29, 2009

Some Old Targets

Thought I would chunk this one at you. This is a chart I put some possible targets on a while back. I still like them both (red and black arrows). Diamond top reversal would be cool here if it happened.

Morning Post

Snow day in the Rockies! Having a blast. Bulldogs won ugly. Market is asleep.

60m SPX - I am not sold on the rectangle breakout just yet, but I am not leaving out the possibility. The upper dashed TL is holding for now and if the trends in the indicators hold, we should be due for a correction soon. Not a big one cause vol is not there, but maybe the lower TL on this chart or the 1114 area. The daily indicators remain mixed. ADX, CCI and S Sto are topping. Hopefully MACD turns at its divergence trendline. Look to sort when the MACD hist sets the first lower candle which should happen soon.

Sorry I have not updated the fibs. I need to renew my SC account and will get that done later today.

I hope you are enjoying the holiday season and wish everyone a happy new year.

Monday, December 28, 2009


OK, let me add this. The SPX according to my TOS chart is sitting right at the top of it's upper P2 (bull market) trendline. It may take me a while to get to find some rhythm, but I will get my mojo back!

Morning Post

I'm on vacation in Colorado, so it is a lot earlier than I am used to. I'm not sure what all you will get from me this week. I trust everyone is enjoying the holiday season. LOL it is -2 outside my window.

I really am not sure what to expect this week. The only thing I hope happens is that the kids finally start parallel skiing and the units I'm depositing in the private ski instructions pay off.  As for the markets, low vol churn up is most likely. In total disbelief last year I sat in this same spot and watched it go up.

I am behind on updating charts and TOS out here does not have all of my annotated charts from home, so I am disabled somewhat.

The dollar appears to be breaking down or in some sort of corrective. As I have speculated, "they" allowed it to run some and now can weaken it again going into earnings season thus allowing possible strength to the markets.

As for the SPX, (pardon the non-updated chart) just look at the position of the indicators on the daily chart. I would like to say upside appears to be limited, but that is not a promise. I really hope the divergence on RSI and MACD  hold. It is trying to get overbought.

That is all I got for now. Thanks for your patience with me and the blog while I am on vacation.

Here is a pic of the backyard.

Happy New Year everyone!!!!!!

Thursday, December 24, 2009

Wednesday, December 23, 2009

Some South Park Christmas Favorites For You

Do not proceed if you do not have a sense of humor or if you are offended easily.

Morning Post

E-minis set new high last night to catch up with everyone else. The RUT finally caught up with everyone else in new high land. After lagging horribly coming into December, down the stretch they came after turn four and RUT hit the turbo boost and appears to want to pass everyone in the final quarter mile. The consensus appears to want everyone to end the year in high style.

Looking at SPX compared to the dollar, oil, TNX and gold here. SPX holds it range and its high as everything else appears to be making the necessary adjustments to their unrealistic conditions.

The VIX daily decided to (not surprisingly) set a new low yesterday. I'm not really sure what to say other than the fear index is not accurately describing the fear that should be evident. IMO this chart best describes the fantasy land scenario we are experiencing now. Combine this with the overall bullish sentiment and you get the recipe for the much anticipated impending correction.

I have no idea what to expect or to call at this time with the SPX range bound, slightly setting a new high yesterday (my upper range all along was 1050 to 1121), meeting resistance at the upper BB and the daily RSI not making any decisive moves. I'm on the sidelines and enjoying the holidays. I'm not ruling out the possibility of anything up or down right now. I'm seeing counts that have tops set or being set and some with a good bit of upside to them. I don't trust any of the counts right now (I don't trust anything right now actually). My suggestion is to wait for the market to come to you. If there is a decisive break north, then 1214 is my target area. If there is a decisive break down, let's watch the form and see what it has to offer. I'm sticking to my call all along that it will take an "external event" to rip this market from Ben, Timmuhh and the gang. Will a big hedge fund or some mutual funds blink before year end in this game of high stakes chicken they are playing or will they take this thru the first quarter earnings period?

Happy holidays and good luck.

Tuesday, December 22, 2009

The $DXY Channel

Nuff said.

EUR/USD - the corresponding falling wedge to the dollar's rise. That yellow line at $1.41 is the 38% retracement of the rise off of the 1.24 march low.

Happy holidays.

Morning Post

The Comcastic ones spin GDP and the PPT puts on the breaks. This is just nuts. The gubment did not spend enough to get the GDP number above estimates? Is the administration losing it? Greece gets downgraded by Moody's as well.

The minis fell some in reaction to GDP anoucement. Here is a 5m chart of the eminis from the open yesterday. (It is the best I got this am, sorry.)

Morning posts after Xmas parties are going to be difficult. At least I am moving. Slow, but moving.

GL and happy holidays.

Monday, December 21, 2009

Gold Futures And The Channel

Expect consolidation at the green and yellow support lines. I may be a buyer at the yellow line near 1066. The 38% retracement off of the 809 futures low in January. Definitely on any break of the upper channel line.

Morning Post

Christmas week and with me skiing in Colorado next week there is no telling what you will get from me between now and the end of the year. If something happens, I'll be here. If not, I'll be enjoying the holidays. You should too! We got Xmas kicked off early and the kids got some big presents from the family - GUNS! That's right, 28 gauge single shot shotguns. (My boys are 7 and 9). We shot all weekend and should be able to have them ready to defend the southern border of the homestead by mid summer if necessary.

The dollar is channeling, but is RSI on the daily chart getting tired? No divergence yet. I know gaps show up all over the place on a daily chart of the dollar and are not that noteable, but this one back on 9/4 was to me and it is just about closed.

A closer look at the dollar's channel on a 60m chart. 

SPX last year at this time. Traded is a 100pt range for most of December till that late pop, but notice how it just fell back into the trading range for most of January, before it let go. I really hate thost that look at stuff and say "It did this then so it may/should do this now". That was a bear market and this is a bull market. Quickly eyeballing January over the last 10 years, it tends to be a down to flat month.

I'll look at more stuff later if necessary. Gold daily appears to be getting support from it's 50ma. Oil is in an uptrend. Natgas breakout is in pause mode right now with RSI sitting near a spot where past price reversals have happened. EUR/JPY is near support and just above a 50% retracement level. EUR/USD is at a LT support level and just above the 38% retracement level at 1.4121.

That is all for now. Go get your shopping done and have a cocktail or two. Enjoy the season and remember the reason for the season.

GL and happy holidays.

Friday, December 18, 2009

The Dollar and The SPX

Rorschach Failed post (revisited)

If the SPX lets go like it should ......

Morning Post

Opex anyone? Well, thank goodness I got to go another day without having to adjust the upper fibs on a whole bunch of charts. Today could be interesting.

Let's start with an overview of the broad indexes. Notice the congestion. RUT almost caught up. There is resistance.

Now lets compare some major players. SPX (red) still laggin all the others in the correction. Gold and the dollar have made the biggest moves. Oil is bucking the trend. TNX looks to be taking a little breather.

So what happens today? Well I'm not going to speculate on a triple witching Opex but the charts say -

15m SPX - not looking at it for anything other than the chart. Stopped at gap fill on the nose. Completed a 61.8% retracement of the last move. Trading is obviously range bound from 1116 to 1087.

SPX 60m - Interesting spot for a spot to stop. With futures up here and the indicators on the 60m favoring a bottom if you are ST short I would proceed with caution.

SPX daily - Looks pretty bearish here for the over all trend right now. The RSI sitting on the 50 line bothers me as a bear. The divergences continue to grow and amazingly the market has not let go. You see all the support listed in the chart.

Oil - Middle east tensions? No kidding. Oil futures 1m - There is the pop oil got from the news.

Oil daily - As reported here - oil held the lower channel TL. Let's see what it does when it backtests the gray channel.

Triple opex and middle east troubles (not to mention the daily barrage of wonderful news) leads me to want to sit and watch today. As for a count - I have no idea. I'm seeing thenm leading up to 1135 (I have it as high as 1214 possibly) and some going straight down. When 1119 or 1087 break, I'll then get interested.

GL, have a great weekend and happy holidays.

Thursday, December 17, 2009

Violated AGAIN?

Getting violated is bad enough, even if it happens once. How would you feel if you got violated four times? Well, most of you bears know how it feels cause this has actually happened to you. How many times can a lower trendlines get reset? I have no idea. I could not find it in any TA book I have. Why an I talking about violation? No, I'm into some weird stuff, but don't go there. It is because the lower P2/bull market support TL has now been violated for the 4th time on this massive bull run. Count 'em.

 In a different light, let's look at it from a series of TOS charts. First, the whole bull run. Pay close attention to that lower blue TL.

 A little closer. Here you pick up a better view of the wedge we're in completing the C wave of the bull run of P2.

 And the drill down. See that Marobozu candle from today closing below the blue support line? That is yet another bearish move. That is the 4th violation. Notice the red dashed line thru the middle? That was the first support line. The black TL coming in from the top is the Bear market top line. Bottom line is that it violated the lower TL for a 4th time. I'm not sure how much more of this can go on. The weekly indicators are overbought and appear to be topping (MACD is just about to cross which is a confirming move in my book), the dailys as you can see in these charts have some large divergences and the monthly RSI is tolling and turning. I won't go into all of the great news that is keeping the market afloat in this post (that was a joke). I have been in disbelief for a long time, but now I'm beginning to feel violated.

GL and happy holidays.

UNG Popping

Tough call on UNG here. I was obviously wrong on my read this am that "Natgas is topping I think - It is at resistance at least and struggling to get any higher. The turbo boost it got this week from the XOM deal may need to be corrected some." Well. it simply blew thru resistance this am. I was looking for a little consolidation, but they thought differently.

UNG daily - I was a few days off and a few pennies short on my target, but overall very close (that was made in a 12/10 post you can see here). Does the upper TL hold and where does it go from here? It appears to want to be holding based on the spike thru it at this time (Note - it has not cracked this upper TL like this before). The break of the 65ma and a run to the TL has been the MO thus far. The completed 62% retracement and the topping of the 30 and 60m chart indicators look like some resistance is in place here. The daily indicators look to have a little room to run other than a topping S Sto.

The weekly chart may tell the best story. This is as bullish as it has looked in a long time. Clear breakouts of all the indicators. If price can get thru the 20ma and the upper TL, this may be the pop we all have been looking for. See the resistance points for the many targets that lie above if it should pop here. Folks this weekly chart is the main reason I have remained so bearish on UNG for so long. Now these breakouts give me some real hope for more upside. If the 20ma and TL hold, it may be the same old story so keep your stops close. Remember, there is no real reason to be bullish on a price rise other than an artificial shortage created by massive cuts in production.

Do your own homework on this one. Relying on TA alone is not enough as futures pricing really controls the price. I will say the weekly indicators look more bullish now than they have in a long time. this does not mean the volatility is gone, but possibly the bottom is in.  Please refer to the EIA site here for a bunch of good info on NATGAS.

I am long a 15% position in UNG.

Morning Post

And the jobs report says - worse, and not surprisingly CNBS is struggling to find a positive angle on the subject. Why not report it as it is - BAD! It is friggin BAD. Just say it. This spin BS from Liesman and the others has to stop.The CITI deal sucked. That is a BIG RED FLAG.

The dollar spiked nicely last night as the breakout continues. There is a big gap that will be closed at 78.02 on the daily chart from 09/04. there is now firm support at the 75.80 range.

The EUR/USD continues its plunge as expected. It has fallen to the $1.43 support level and may take a breather here. If not the 38% retracement is $1.41.

Gold's brief recovery may be over for now as it has net the upper channel line and has reversed. The $1088 level support might hold and if not the 38% retracement at $1066 would be the next most logical spot.


Oil's recovery (as advertised here) appers to have hit a ST ceiling after a nice run. There is a channel down (not shown here) forming over the last week or so. My question, is this a backtest of the larger gray channel and more downside is to come or is this just the start of something better as the daily indicators say.

The other day I quietly and politely made a e-mini 1096 call. So far they are pausing at 1095.75. Can it get worse? Well, going against some of the grain and counts, I have been decidedly bearish (since the boom, boom, boom chart I posted on Sunday). So we get a little boom action this am. I'm not saying this is something major. I posted the daily chart so you can see pretty clearly all the action. Mainly notice all the support at the 185 level. As for a count? This may be a 1 of a 3 down. I am not willing to go for anything under 1085 quite yet. If we take out 1085 I will be one short sum beech. There is not much to stop it under that. You go straight to 1064 and then to 1030. I expect the PPT to put up a good fight (unless they used all their funds buying up CITI and Wells offerings - DOPE!)

Natgas is topping I think - It is at resistance at least and struggling to get any higher. The turbo boost it got this week from the XOM deal may need to be corrected some.

GL out there and happy holidays.

Wednesday, December 16, 2009

Mr. Grinch (Non-Denominational)

He HADN'T stopped Christmas from coming!
Somehow or other, it came just the same!
And the Grinch, with his grinch-feet ice-cold in the snow,
Stood puzzling and puzzling: "How could it be so?
It came without ribbons! It came without tags!
"It came without packages, boxes or bags!"
And he puzzled three hours, `till his puzzler was sore.
Then the Grinch thought of something he hadn't before!
"Maybe Christmas," he thought, "doesn't come from a store.
"Maybe Christmas...perhaps...means a little bit more!"
And what happened then...? Who-ville they say
That the Grinch's small heart
Grew three sizes that day!
And the minute his heart didn't feel quite so tight,
He whizzed with his load through the bright morning light
And he brought back the toys! And the food for the feast!
And he...
The Grinch carved the roast beast!

You see, Christmas does not come from a store and, yes, it means a little bit more. Those that shop at the Fed's discount window found that Christmas can come early (or at any time they want it to). Those that shop at the Fed's discount window don't give a shit about your Christmas. The bonus laden will spend, spend spend and the debt and foreclosure laden will cry boo-hoo. They have left no crumbs for your mouses and that Who Hash, they smoked it! Friggin all of it! Bogarts.

Now Christmas is coming to CITI and Wells Fargo. They are getting bailed out for bonuses and the shareholders are getting diluted to Whoville and back. You’re a foul one Mr. Grinch. You’re a nasty wasty skunk. Your heart is full of unwashed socks, Your soul is full of gunk, Mr. Grinch. The 3 words that best describe you, are as follows, and I quote, "Stink, Stank, Stonk"

That's right, Christmas does not come from a store because their inventories are so low you won't be able to find what you want even though the shoppers are only out in limited numbers. For it was on that day they say the credit card issuers increased their interest rates 10 times plus two. They are not gonna come and steal your tree like the Grinch, they are gonna repo that sum bitch and still charge you interest (times two).

Was it really because the bankers hearts were two sizes two small? Not really they are to big to fail so they don't really have hearts or souls or even a spirit for that matter. Their religion is rooted in evil and greed and your well being is of no real concern to them. They have discovered a way to churn the markets without needing any of our assets and thus rendered us useless in this world. They got all they needed out of us. You nauseate me, Mr. Grinch. With a nauseous super naus, You’re a crooked jerky jockey and, you drive a crooked horse Mr. Grinch.

Don't expect Obama or Bernanke to come whizzing thru the night to bring you a load of jack shit. Their hearts are not feeling any lighter (nor are their wallets!). He's gone. He's checked out and did not leave a forwarding address. He left town with all your shit and is still charging you interest! That roast beast, that ain't roast beast I hate to tell ya.

I can't really decide amongst the candidates who should be the Grinch. Bernanke and his "superman of the year" award? Greenspan? Clinton/Bush/Obama? Timmuh? GS? Or pick almost any representative. It is a tough call, so you can make up your own Grinch.

OK, I have slightly berated one of the all time favorite Christmas stories, sorry. You see it is one of my favorites, and I believe the message is glaring to those that will listen. At the very end of the video the message is loud and clear.

Christmas day is in our grasp, So long as we have hands to clasp, 
Welcome all Who's Far and near, Christmas day will always be Just so long as we have we,
Welcome Christmas Bring your light, While we stand Heart to heart And hand in hand 

My kids have to recite that (and about 5 other Christmas classics), so I know they get it. You see if you remove the word Christmas and replaced it with, say, Saturday, read it again. Stripping away the commercial and religious aspects, we can all enjoy the season. What if We did not have We? What if We could not stand hand in hand with our friends and neighbors? It is about community and family coming together. We need We! Without We things would really suck, so this holiday season appreciate the We's you have.

Now stretch this We to our country or the world. We need We and We better start coming together or the Grinch is gonna get our tree, and he might want to stuff the tree up something other than your chimney. I have had enough of the Grinch and his TBTF party. So as you are spreading holiday cheer with the other Who's in Whoville, why don't you discuss the Grinch and his bad acts so others become aware of what is really happening. Then it will be the Whos turn to make some Noise, Noise, Noise. Then maybe the Who's can get their Constitution and government back! Now wouldn't that make a great holiday gift?

Happy holidays!

I'll post on a Christmas Carol soon. I'd hate to leave Scrooge out of one of my Xmas posts.

Also, I crossed the 300k hits milestone today! Thanks for all your views and support.

Morning Post

Fed day today. Ya think they are gonna surprise and raise rates? I doubt it. With 1mo treasuries yielding zero and the equity markets the only play in town where any money can be made, why screw up a good thing? (ghood thing for whom can be debated) They will have to raise them eventually, but I'm not going to hold my breath. CPI and housing numbers are being spun on CNBS. So are you in the deflation of inflation camp? I think we deflate first with some signs of specific pricing pressures that eventually leads to inflation. Its like having a bad tooth that you know needs to be extracted, but you don't want to face the surgery. You deal with the pain and deal with the pain, yet eventually you will have to go under the knife.

SPX daily- I just do not know what it will take to get this market out of this trading range. BB width is 29. That is under 30 folks. That is 15 up or 15 down is all you are theoretically gonna get. Narrow BB's usually lead to volatility, so I still expect a breakout one way or the other. CCI may have topped and RSI stopped at the blue divergence line. Now RSI is running in a range between the 50 line as support and the upper divergence lines getting pinched down. I'm not sure how long it can stay in this range. At this time I'm leaning to a push south to the 1085 level.

SPX 60m - This chart says fall, but I would caution bears to look out for the 1103 level where the 50ma and the lower BB sit. If that cracks the bears may be in business.See my 15m chart for the most detail on fibs, TLs and S/R.

E- minis - Up 4.5 at this time and were as high as 1112 overnight. Currently 1108. Trading at the upper end near resistance of the upper resistance line of the past few weeks and backtesting the lower P2 support line. So that should be a double doozie.

DXY - Ending a rising wedge and should rollover here. The daily indicators are getting pretty toppy.

Oil - If you look at the chart I showed yesterday am, you will see the lower channel line held and there is a good chance it is going to pop from here. I'll do an energy post today I think.

Natgas - /NG futures have moved above NT resistance, but will that move hold? Indicators are a little toppy with a divergence in RSI showing upside should be limited from here. I'll get a UNG post out soon.

/ZN 10yr treauries futures - looks like an ABC corrective is just about complete and the daily indicators are about to show some buy signals.

EUR/USD continues to fall and has taken out all support lines I have. Daily indicators are embedding on the low end. I think the 1.51 high is set.

EUR/JPY - Holding the 128.50 support. We'll know more in January when it nears it's upper TL.

Inflation? Frozen Concentrated OJ - No there has not been a big freeze. Like I said- It will and is happening in specific areas, thus not the perfect storm. This chart demonstrates there is some inflation out there.

GL out there and happy holidays.

Tuesday, December 15, 2009

No, Things Are Not Getting Better

No matter what they say. No matter what they do. Do not believe a word of it. You are witnessing the greatest con-game ever perpetrated on anyone anywhere.

The latest debacle, paying back tarp funds so bonuses can be paid out so they can retain "talent", is like piling on after the play. It is a personal foul, and I'm taking it personally. You should to. In Ratigan Dissects TARP Repayments Dylan hammers home the rail road spike that should push most over the edge. Is the public in an uproar over this one? Nooooooo. Should they be? Yessssss. Americans yet have another reason to be lighting up the phone and fax lines of their representatives but are they? Nope. Well, our representatives can't really do anything to stop them from repaying TARP funds, but they can correct the issue with a windfall profit tax. Will they? Nooooo. Should they? Yesssss! they can not challenge the true powers that be. You should have figured this out by now, but our government is really at the mercy of the banksters. The bastards have raped America again during the worst economic downturn in history and the friggin bastards that were responsible for most of this mess get rewarded? You tell me, should we be in the streets protesting this action or just enjoying our credit laden lives watching our 46" plasmas?

So how do we continue to pay for these bonuses, the capitalization efforts and keep the market hovering while the Fed has begun the repo machine? For Second Time In A Row, One Month Bill Auction Closes At 0.000% That's right, you issue one month treasuries at 0.00% interest rates. I know, there still may not be a safer place to store your funds (that's right - simply parking BILLIONS for a month earning NOTHING is the safest place for their funds right now). Take a minute and fully absorb that statement. Soak it in. This should tell you that risk even in their world is peaking. It should also bring caution that this may be another form of monetization. So while they lie to you on TV and tell you everything is fine (look at the right hand), the left hand is doing things that you do not need to see or know about. 

Well its a darn good thing that the banks are paying back those billions cause here comes subprime again. Fannie Freddie May Need Another $400 Billion Taxpayer Assistance is most likely just the tip of the iceberg to get housing fixed. You see when they are looking for, say, uh, another $400 BILLION while the housing market is churning out numbers like Latest NAHB Confidence Number Edges Down To 16, Misses Consensus, Lowest Since June

But things really are fine. Just look at Best Buy's earnings (don't look at anything else but the earnings - nothing - nope - don;t turn that page - you just get to see the earnings). Did anyone pick up on Cramer’s Best Buy Earnings Recommendation Gets Crushed? Not that it mans anything (good laugh though). Bottom line is the recession is over and the consumer is fine. Is That A Door Slamming? You see the credit card charge offs are a normal part of the cycle and should be expected to be at these levels. This is a natural part of the process of ending a recession (I could go to work for CNBS spewing lines like that). 

But have no fear For Week Ending December 14, Insider Selling Outpaces Buying By A Factor Of 32.

Look folks. I can't (and don't) make this stuff up. Night after night I produce some profound posts from the net. Stuff that I am finding on a nightly basis should take a half a year to produce. The shit is hitting he fan, but since they have built a massive propaganda machine and coordinated efforts across all boarders and oceans to hide the truth most are oblivious to the facts. The rising market has taken the public's eye off of the ball, but that curtain will drop soon exposing the puss filled sore that our banks and governments have propagated over the past decade. Nasty thought? Yeah, it should be.

GL and happy holidays. 

Morning Post

Good morning!

SPX 15m -  The boom, boom, boom chart from Sunday. Fib targets, supprt and resistance, the gap and the fibs are viewed really well on this chart. Let's see if the trend holds and if GWLK (BSLS) likes it better today? The 60m looks as toppy as this chart, but the daily may be telling a different story. It needs to turn here or soon for the bears.

Gold daily - decided to take an $8 plunge last night. I am not sure if that is a channel down (green) or not, but I drew it as one. I backed the chart out so you can see the support levels better. Green, sky blue and gray lower TL's are all valid. The yellow line is the 38% retracement off of the 809 low and may be the ultimate target for a meaningful pullback at 1066.

Dollar 1hr - You can see the breakout of the pink falling wedge that led the bull market. I am not positive that the proper backtest has occurred. The gray wedge form is ending and a pullback would be in order. Is the green TL a target ot the blue one? How will the markets react to the dollar correcting this move? Will the somewhat broken correlation correct, or are they somewhat independent now? The retracement levels from here off of the 74.17 low are 38% - 75.97, 50% - 75.66 and 61.8% - 75.34.

EUR/JPY daily - Seems to have found a happy place for now around 128.50 as it either remains range bound or as the gray falling wedge plays out.

Oil daily - I updated all of the energy sector in my chartbook yesterday and there looked to be some potential technical buys in there. With oil futures possibly holding the bottom of this channel (MACD hist turning up and RSI as well) maybe there is something to look at here. XOM on weakness from the deal yesterday might be worth keeping on the radar as well.

Natgas daily - just slightly taking out the upper resistance. Now, this can be stretched a little higher, a real breakout may be happening. I'm not all that convinced, but it is possible. gray boxes are gaps and the yellow rectangle is the retracement zone from 3.91 to 3.56. 

GL today and happy holidays.

Monday, December 14, 2009

Newsworthy Items

I'm really not sure about the economic horizon. Just kidding.

The audacity of government officials that continuously spew lie after lie telling us all is well, the recession is over, nothing to see here, move along is getting under my skin again. The honeymoon is almost over. I have not forgotten all of the fraud, misleading statements, the lies, the sheer criminal actions. I have not been lulled to sleep and have not partaken of the kool-aide or hopium distributed by the pushers in Washington and on Wall Street. I hope you have not either. All is not better. Sooner or later the top is gonna blow and the magnitude of the devastation will be historic. I have a self imposed "no rant" policy in place thru the holiday season, but you can be reassured that one is building in me like a mini Mount Vesuvius.

As my regular readers know I have speculated all along that it would take and "external event" to rip the market from the manipulators. Dubai was a close call. If the rumors of the withdrawal of funds from CITI were true, that would have totally devastated the whole financial system. You and I both know that if Dubai were to w/d all their funds from CITI they would not have them and then the trickle down effect would have been disastrous (think It's a Wonderful Life but there is no backstop). That said, what happens to Greece here Greece Enters Twilight Zone As It Announces 90% Banker Bonus Tax Plans, Expectations For Sub 3% Deficit By 2013 or Mexico Mexico Downgrade By S&P From BBB+ To BBB Means Everyone Get On The Bailout Train? Troubles in Austria? No More Failures Ever As Moral Hazard Goes Global: Austria's Hypo Alpe Adria Nationalized. The global ship is taking on water (actually the first two decks are full, they just won't admit that to you). It will not be long before a country defaults and tears down the financial house of cards. They are doing their best to hide the truth from you and me, but in reality we know, so why the charade? The global Ponzi scheme/musical chairs will end.

So most Americans disapprove of everything that is going on and polls say we would like things done differently (take HC for example), but they refuse to listen to us and go along their merry socialist path of righteousness. What is this country becoming? Cities Shut Off Streetlamps to Save Money; Indianapolis Threatens $2500 Fines for Challenging Traffic Tickets is a good example of what coming down the pike. Cities are strapped for cash and it will become painfully more obvious over the next year. Never mind that Click here to find out more!Paterson: 'New York Has Run Out Of Cash' or the 20% unemployed are running out of cash as well (wonder what types of actions that will bring?)

This one will being a smile to your face (and get you to questioning why we have not wiped out the poppy fields in Afghanistan). Do Summers, Geithner and Bernanke Have to Share Credit for Saving the Banks with Drug Kingpins? It is an interesting though and if proven true the conspiracy nuts will be, well, right again. 

And last but not least THE 5 REASONS GOLD IS IN A BUBBLE AND AT RISK OF SIGNIFICANT CORRECTION  Who am I to argue with Roubini? OK, I'll take the bait since I challenged myself. I think it corrects with the initial plunge of the market as people do not understand what they have and they rush for the exits and trade for profit. Then the smart ones (me) come in and buy it up and make it their only holding. Sounds good on paper at least. 

Take care and have a great holiday season.

Morning Post

I hope you had a good weekend. 11 days to Christmas. More importantly 17 till 2010 where I believe the action begins. Dubai gets bailed out and thus saves CITI's (and the global financial system) butt. So, you can say we dodged a huge bullet there. I'm not sure what will happen with volume this week. Maybe the holiday volume started three weeks early?

Some have asked why I have stopped giving targets? Well, first they are all in the charts via fibs, S/R lines, BB's, gaps and  trendlines. Second, when the market is range bound line this and is lacking clear direction there is no point. Since I do not trade 1 and 2% moves, I do not see a need to slap a fib on every squiggle. Now I do have 1, 5, and 15m charts that I try to keep updated in the chartbook for a greater drill down if you like. I have also been asked about my EWT count. LOL - I'm not even sure if EWI has a count nor if the good Lord could count this mess. I think we're in the last wave up with a possible 1214 top target or we are in a topping process. I'm just gonna wait for it to blow out the end of the barrel and get some clear direction. Then I'll start counting again.

SPX daily - Someone wanted a daily chart, so here it is. I can not make this one say go down like the 15m I posted yesterday, but it does say the bulls are very weak and the bears can't get their act together. First note all the support under price. I count 9 support points from 1064 up. Next note the narrow BB's. Anything below 60 has created volatility and with them sitting at 29 something should be about to pop. RSI now has 3 separate divergence lines and has been trading between them and the 50 line for a month. The red line is cracking and a push to the blue line may be in order, but the upper BB may have something to say about that. S Sto got a bull cross Friday, but it never made it to being oversold and is right under TL.

SPX 60m - MACD hist does not look good. S Sto overbought. This chart looks toppy, but you know I do not thrust or trade on the 60m and find it highly unreliable. It does say toppy though. Notice the group of gaps on the upswings between 1090 and 1100. Something (?) is protection that 1088 price level. If that cracks, there is not much below it to keep the market from going straight to 1030.

DXY 60m - For all the bearish angles I tried to take above, if the dollar and the markets decide to resume their dance, this rising wedge should be viewed as potentially bullish near term for the markets. One thing that I am speculating about is that they are going to keep the $ in a range and use it to prop up the markets. Let it breathe and then deflate it. Although the dollar has decidedly bottomed for now (according to the TA I see) and broken out of its LT falling wedge, they may drag it out down here for a while.

Oil daily - goes under $70 and cracks a level I was not ready for it to violate. I thought the yellow channel would hold. Let's see what happens at support at $65.

EUR/USD daily - The breakdown continues. I'm not sure if the dashed gray TL holds here or not. Let's see what happens at the $1.44 level.

VIX - Needs to hold the lower TL near 21.
EUR/JPY - wedging down with support at $126.71.
Gold - Still in the channel down. but may be nearing a pop point as I mentioned last week.
Natgas - Looking to see any reaction to the XOM deal.