Charting the EUR/USD

For the longest time (a bit early as I did not suspect the pop to 149 - I was looking as high as 143) I have called down to 135, 125 and finally 116 as my targets for the EUR/USD. You can plainly see the reason for the 116 call in the charts below. What may be wrong with that call is if that level gets hit and busts, the EUR is gone for good as that HnS targets 76.

Monthly - Long term 118 support with larger view of potential Head and Shoulders. Also showing LT support diagonal (pink). The really weak MACD and RSI double top in 10 and 11 signaled this recent move south.

Morning Post 10/20/11, SPX, Oil, Gold, Silver, AUD, EUR, UDS, JPY

OK - Let's go over this one last time for you Modern Economics 101 students - Greece can't afford jack shit and are so in debt they can't pay back what they owe. How do you solve this problem? You simply give them more money. Got it? You may be tested on this later, so I wanted to make sure you understood this.

Today you simply keep pumping money into the system to keep it alive. Fix the issue? Fuck no! That would be to friggin hard and cost to many politicians their jobs.  You do what you can to keep it alive for as long as possible and when it finally implodes you blame it on someone else and say that no one could have seen the problems coming. 

You do realize that greeting Greece out of trouble this time will only keep them alive for another month or two. Rinse/repeat. At some point the repeat part of that statement will not occur. 

Morning Post 10/04/11, SPX, AUD, EUR, JPY, Gold, Oil, USD

"Overnight saw credit markets crushed overseas in Australia and Asia,
Europe continue to sink into the abyss and now pre-market equities in
the US are showing serious weakness with no sign of a bounce." FINal(er) Countdown | ZeroHedge

I'm not sure how long I have been telling you i is all about EU liquidity, but it has been a while. Nothing works without lubrication. Friction is bad. European Liquidity Update: Horrible And Getting Worse | ZeroHedge

I do not know about you, but I think there will be a tradeable event at 10:00 when Helicopter Ben speaks. I HIGHLY suggest you watch this - Bernanke Testifies To The Joint Economic Committee; And The Balance Of D.C. Theater For The Week | ZeroHedge

FX Chartapalooza Copper, Silver, Gold, Dollar, Oil, AUD, EUR, USD, JPY, CHF

Don't forget to vote in the new poll ======>

I don't so these all that often, bus since I am tired of talking about all the downgrades and lies about salvation, and since I have not covered most below in some time ..........

Note - all the below should scare the hell out of you (and I am not including the markets). This looks like epic collapse and no stick save option is available.

Welcome to Chartapalooza!

/dx - US dollar - Breaking out above long term down trend. After a 40% devaluation off the 2001 highs you had to figure a rally would have to occur at some point, right? How great is the fear around the globe right now? Well, if they are flocking to the greatest fiat on the planet, that would conclude your lesson on how this global economy is the greatest farce ever manufactured. $81 and $88 are the best two targets here if this improbable run can continue.

Morning Post

Good morning!

SPX 15m -  The boom, boom, boom chart from Sunday. Fib targets, supprt and resistance, the gap and the fibs are viewed really well on this chart. Let's see if the trend holds and if GWLK (BSLS) likes it better today? The 60m looks as toppy as this chart, but the daily may be telling a different story. It needs to turn here or soon for the bears.

Gold daily - decided to take an $8 plunge last night. I am not sure if that is a channel down (green) or not, but I drew it as one. I backed the chart out so you can see the support levels better. Green, sky blue and gray lower TL's are all valid. The yellow line is the 38% retracement off of the 809 low and may be the ultimate target for a meaningful pullback at 1066.

Dollar 1hr - You can see the breakout of the pink falling wedge that led the bull market. I am not positive that the proper backtest has occurred. The gray wedge form is ending and a pullback would be in order. Is the green TL a target ot the blue one? How will the markets react to the dollar correcting this move? Will the somewhat broken correlation correct, or are they somewhat independent now? The retracement levels from here off of the 74.17 low are 38% - 75.97, 50% - 75.66 and 61.8% - 75.34.

EUR/JPY daily - Seems to have found a happy place for now around 128.50 as it either remains range bound or as the gray falling wedge plays out.

Oil daily - I updated all of the energy sector in my chartbook yesterday and there looked to be some potential technical buys in there. With oil futures possibly holding the bottom of this channel (MACD hist turning up and RSI as well) maybe there is something to look at here. XOM on weakness from the deal yesterday might be worth keeping on the radar as well.

Natgas daily - just slightly taking out the upper resistance. Now, this can be stretched a little higher, a real breakout may be happening. I'm not all that convinced, but it is possible. gray boxes are gaps and the yellow rectangle is the retracement zone from 3.91 to 3.56. 





GL today and happy holidays.

EUR/USD Breakdown (In Pictures!)

Long term - the pink channel starts off of the low in 2001. Pay close attention to that lower channel line and how it works thru to this years backtest of the breakdown in the sky blue wedge. On this monthly chart you can see a nice roll over in S Sto and RSI and it appears MACD just could not get it up and is petering out.Notice the fist pullback to a near perfect 50% retracement ( the gray rectangle is the 50 to 62% retracement zone). Also notice the yellow dashed TL incorporating the two lows and then the green dashed TL that is drawn off of the previous lows from '00 and '02.

Now for a medium term look at this same chart. Here you can see the yellow dashed TL picking up the bottoms which should serve as ultimate support here near 1.31 (I do not think that will hold as I'm thinking the green TL in the chart above is the ticket). You can clearly see the sky blue wedge backtesting the pink channel and stopping near the 1.50 resistance point. Is that a 2 wave corrective?

Now to drill into the action on a weekly view. IMO if you combine the indicators from the monthly chart with those on this weekly chart you get a recipe for disaster. On this chart you have nasty divergences on S Sto and RSI. That MACD bear cross and HIST going negative does not look good either. Include the breakdown of the sky blue rising wedge at the backtest of the major bull channel and that just adds to the misery. For the $1.24 low to $1.51 high the heavy yellow line is the 38% fib at 1.41. The retracement zone is from1.38 to 1.35. The support line you see is at 1.34 and then the yellow TL catching both major bottoms is at 1.31. Let's not forget the lower green TL near 1.04! You can clearly see a nice red weekly candle poking out the bottom of the blue wedge.

So there you have it. The analysis of the breakdown of the EUR/USD. No turning back from here. This one has been set in motion. the targets are above. I can not determine any time frames at this time. I did leave out one TL and the possibility of this being a massive H&S formation with us forming the right shoulder now. The target for that would be somewhere near $.90. Neckline is the last two lows. Ouch if that is right.

GL out there and happy holidays.

LOOK Into The Future(s).

DXY daily- Showing the yellow triangle and the pink bul market falling wedge. The backtest is complete. Now can it crack that upper yellow resistance line? Dollar is flat now in overnight trading which is somewhat surprising.

/ES E-mini daily (S&P futures) - Pink is bear market top line. Red is P2 bull market support line. Sky blue is nt support line. All that adds up to a lot of support esp when you throw in the 50ma helping to hold things up.

/YG Gold futures daily - Rising wedge rising out of a bull market rising wedge. Attempted breakdown with RSI where it is and the 50ma below may mean a good pullback is in order sooner than later. Tellow are the 398% fib and the yellow box is the 50 to 61% fib retracement zone.

EUR/USD daily - Yellow rising wedge rolling over into the light blue channel. Does the 50ma and the yellow support line hold? Tough call, but if you back the chart out you can see the trouble the EUR/USD is in.

 
EUR/JPY daily - With the green and yellow trendlines possibly going trouble may be here sooner than later.

 /NG NATGAS 30m - A possible channel and the pink line is support. 

Oil  daily - riding the 50ma with 4 support lines under it. Might be hard to bring down I'd say.




Kind of quiet out there tonight.  GL trading.

LOOK Into The Future(s).

I hope everyone had a great holiday weekend. I'm toast, so much for having fun putting up all the Xmas stuff. More like a battle royal around my home. Well, it is almost over and I can commence to enjoy the season.

No Dubai surprises to look forward to in the am, but there are still 12 hours till the opening bell. Amazing how that was shaken off like a bad tackle. That is just a little taste of what is to come. If they are having CRE problems, just wait for ours to hit. It is only a matter of time. I still don't think they will let anything happen to the market (that they can control) till Xmas shopping season is done.

E mini 60m - Looking back on a 60m thru Thursday. ED down and a rising wedge up. Not much change from the close Friday. RSI is high and the 61.8% retrace is met.

DXY daily - Looking at the descending triangle (yellow). The only hick-up is the throwunder at the yellow circle. Looks to be nearing an end of the consolidation period. That top trendline is pretty solid.

 
Gold - /YG daily - I stretched it back this time so you can see the rising wedge and the possible throw over. Yellow box is the retracement zone and the yellow line is the 38% retrace. Looks like 1085 will be a good target soon if not worse. They were surprisingly dumping gold as well Friday morning which should be noted.

Natgas daily - RSI is toppy and resistance is near. I'd be cautious if I were long here. I do NOT trust any counts on this one at all.

Oil - /CL daily - backed this one out as well. Yellow channel. pink channel and red support line. Gobs of support plus the 50ma. Yellow box is the retracement zone and thick yellow line is the 38% retrace.

EUR/JPY daily - broke green TL handily, but struggled to close under hte lower yellow wedge support. This thing almost puked all over the place Friday. Sign of things to come?

EUR/USD daily - Just riding the lower yellow trendline and the 50ma all the way up. I think the blue channel is more in play now than the yellow, but we'll have to see about that. If the 50ma goes this one will tank to the gray box.




Have a good night and GL this week. Happy holidays.

LOOK Into The Future(s).

/ES 60m - Minis are up 3.50 at this time (8:22p est). Looks like a completed 5 wave move down and a break up above the upper trendline (sky blue) after completing a 76% retracement of the last wave up. Most are counting this as 1 of 1 of P3 and we are beginning 2 up. I'm not all that sure about that, but I'm not discounting it. 

DXY 60m - Almost completed a 76% retracement of the last move just like the minis. Looks like a good move south coming is possible if the backtest of the Green wedge gives way. Testing the yellow dashed trendline with the sky blue rising wedge support just below.

/CL Lt Sweet Crude daily - Channeling up and now channeling over (pink). The green trendline catches a lot of common tops and bottoms. Red lines are major support. The yellow line is the 38% retracement and the yellow box is the retracement zone (50 to 61%).

/NG daily - Looks like a possible break of the downtrend line afterstalling at a 38% retracement.

/YG Mini gold Futures 60m - BIG GAP UP to the top wedge line (gray rectangle).

EUR/JPY daily - Testing lower support while wedging sideways. If green support gives way it should fall all the way to the lower wedge support.

EUR/USD daily - Riding lower channel support line (yellow channel) being held down buy resistance (upper red). The 50% line of the blue channel is providing support here as well. We'll know for sure soon if the blue channel has taken over or not.

You may want to read this - Bills Yielding Zero as Stocks Soar Make Bernanke’s 1938 Moment - from Bloomberg. 
"For the first time in seven decades, Treasury bills are paying no interest while stocks continue to appreciate -- a divergence in U.S. financial markets that might be perilous if Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke didn’t know all about 1938.
That’s when the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index climbed 25 percent even as bill rates tumbled to 0.05 percent from 0.45 percent. As 1939 began, stocks began a three-year, 34 percent decline after the Fed increase borrowing costs prematurely to stymie inflation that never materialized.  Sounds like we know the playbook he is using.



GL trading this holiday week. I'm not sure of anything other than continued low volume and a possible push higher. I am a little leery of some sort of surprise announcement during the slower holiday weeks.

LOOK Into The Future(s).

Charts are from 11:20 est.

/NG daily - So, you tell me which gap it is after? The yellow box is the fib retracement for this last climb.

DXY 60m - She's got a spike! I'll get interested when that upper green TL goes down.Remember that gap analysis I spoke of today?

/YG - Mini gold 60m - Is that a H&S forming with a 1111 target? If not the retracement zone is the yellow box and the 38% retracement is 1104.You can see the set up for the breakdown I called, now can it get worse?

EUR/USD daily - Nice channel and riding a support line and at resistance. You see the fib retracement box just under support at 1.38. Other support at 1.43. This is an interesting set up.

EUR/JPY daily - Will the green line hold or will the wedge support be in play?





Nothing happening with the e-minis. Down 1.25.

Minis, Dollar, EUR And The Wedges

Interesting day as both the dollar and markets are up today on what appears should have been a healthy breakdown according to the trendlines. Maybe the PPT or the HFT bots saw it coming and intervened. The action is just screwy IMO.I should have titled this the sick possibility of more upside (wait till you get to the daily chart - ugh).

$DXY 60m - Broke to new lows and pops up to take out what I believe is a solid tendline. This one is a moving target and I could have the upper and lower trendline in different places, but this makes the most sense to me. The DAILY $DXY has a solid divergence in RSI to price and S Sto looks like it may want to help push up. This is the chart you can trust the least IMO.74.50 baby - if it stops and holds there, my nightmare below will not come true.

E- Mini 60m - OK, so this puppy broke down thru the lower trendline of the rising wedge. Ya'd think the two breakouts together would mean something. The moves actually correlate very well (except for the dollars action in pre-markets  which is why we had the up and down moves this morning in rapid fashion). Something to note is the DAILY e-mini RSI is at its divergence trendline at 69 with Sto topping.

EUR/USD weekly - This chart is a little hard to read as it is a chopped up version of a 10 year chart. One thing is clear - the rising wedge and the horribly overbought weekly indicators. That pink line is a trendline that was market support going back to 2003. Nice resistance on the backtest I say. The fibs are off of the lows in '02. Looks like a divergence in RSI is being set, thus breakdown soon. EUR/JPY is boring and in a ascending triangle inside a rising channel with a bad looking RSI divergence to price. 

Daily SPX - now to the meat of the story -THE RETURN OF THE DAILY INDICATOR CHART (yeaaaaaaa!) that is still under construction. OK - lots to cover here. Kind of cool to see the upper bear market trendline (black) right above with divergences all over the map on a daily chart below. The gap from 1107 to 1109 is just above (pink). Nice! What is not cool is how uncomfortable I am with price action to the indicators these days. It is becoming very irrational IMO and that is why I am so uncomfortable. When things that normally make sense stop - somethin ain't right. Now here is where I go all screwball on you. See that C=A target? Well that is where the weekly 200ma lies right now as well. What about that 5=1 target? 1204? Dude? Dude, I know, I know. Hell, I got sick this morning when I mentioned 1180 as a possible target not to mention my upper target of 1121. I am NOT calling these, just merely pointing out the possibilities. They do not seem likely given the position of the dollar, the minis, the divergences and the IMO total dis-functionality of anything right now. Now do you see why I am struggling? It was hard enough to believe this thing could bottom in March with all the troubles or even make it to this point. (I won't mention the inverse head and shoulders target of 1355, OK?)




I'll post a weekly chart tomorrow. Bottom line is all along I have wanted a nice retracement to reset the lower trrendline so the market had a little more room to run higher and this last low (wave 4 of C IMO at this time) has set up for the 5 to run. Either I have a fever or have drunken too much of the manipulation cool aide (which has kept my calls better than most) . I'll reassess and grind over this for a while. Pure TA says toppy now. Not sure why I can't bite. Maybe I'll be back to normal tomorrow.

Oh, I got admitted into the ZeroHedge DARPA program today. LOL - I hope they don't see this shit - oops - I'm on there RSS - Hey you guys and girls - ignore this post please. 

Comments and prayers are appreciated. Speaking of prayers, don't forget Vetran's Day.

EUR/USD Weekly

The WEEKLY chart is a little busy due to the Fib Retracement on there, but it is there for a reason.

Yellow rising wedge plain as day. Note that it is in a battle with its next to last resistance line before approaching the top. The next stop if it gets thru here is the 78.6% Fib and the resistance at that same level. Another thing to note is that when it tanks it tends to fun a ways and in a hurry. Also notice the indicators. They are spent. There is not much room to run. If this resistance is taken out look for the EUR/USD to top at the $1.52 level and for the other indexes to top there as well.