Chartapalooza 08/24/12 Dollar, Oil, well .... Everything

I need to churn out some individual detailed reports on the below. I'll see if I can get to that next week. Let me know what you want to see.

Read 'em and weep -

Dollar - I suspect our fiat gets one last pop when the Euro fails. That will piss off uncle Benny, but that's too bad. He'll get his wishes of mega devaluation sooner than later as they MUST devalue to support the exponentially expanding debt of the country. A crash is coming but not till after the Euro failure, rush to safety (LMAO) pop I suspect the failing reserve currency gets. I still think you will live to see the dollar with a $4 handle. Dollar sits at channel support and multi-year s/r  at $81. That's a very important level.

Morning Charts 07/24/12 $SPX $ES

Pretty simple again. We sit on a cliff awaiting a savior.

Minis 15m - If you missed my Let's Look at the E-minis post yesterday, please look at it for a complete step by step guide to price action and where we are today.  Minis last night closed at critical support and today remain teetering on the brink of a 40 to 45 point slide to 1300 if Team Manipulation and the PPT don't come to the rescue. Blue rising wedge support has failed. 1341 is the market Mendoza line. Yellow (new) wedge or lower diagonal support is all that is left. Those three are dominating price here as you can see on the chart below.

Morning Post 07/19/12 $SPX $ES

Let's not spend a lot of time today focusing on the unadulterated manipulation of the financial markets, the criminality that encompasses that same system and governments around the globe or the war monger's increasing beat of their drum.

The charts are starting to point to another major move again.

Copper - This head and shoulders (bearish formation) is unmistakable. 

Morning Chartapalooza 05/31/02 $SPX $Gold $ES $Silver $Oil $Dollar $EUR/USD

Let's chart 'em up and try to figure out what the heck is going on shall we -

Gold Daily - Busted LT white and yellow channel supports. Green channel down off the '11 top thru LT supports. Now in pink intermediate channel under blue s/r diag. $1567 is the major s/r point going back to '11. Breaking $1478 would be a big deal. Green channel support is currently near 1443 and falling.

Morning Chartapalooza 05/24/12 $SPX $ES

Cause the news is horroble across the board and the markets are obviously in 'anticipate more easing' mode (price should be down three times what is is up right now) I'm just gonna sling some charts at you this morning. If you have any questions about 'easing mode' see the AD last night. that will explain everything. I do recommend you read Welcome To Chez Central Planner: Presenting The Complete Fed/ECB Response Menu | ZeroHedge if you have any interest in understanding the plethora of ways the Fed/ECB can try and wiggle their way out of most any situation (till they can't).

Minis 30m - Backtesting the yellow wedge and meeting green resistance off the 1413 top (not anywhere near the 1420 resistance diag that is near 1394). The red diagonal that is acting as a support area here is the old upper market resistance diag off the 2007 and 2011 tops. The backtest occurring here is a major support play and if this goes significantly then real downside action will be coming. Upside 1341 is my first major resistance.

Dollar - Yellow LT channel support held and the rally is on channeling up thru LT resistance near $81 in a real power play. It is amazing a worthless piece of paper (fiat) is something that gains strength in the most dire times. Just follow the greeen channel for now. I'll do a dollar post next week or you can see Shanky Does the Dollar for a more historical perspective. 

EUR/USD - Pink falling channel/wedge cracking MAJOR support is a MAJOR deal. The busted green support goes back to the '02 lows. The 1.25 area has been major support/resistance since '98. This crack is a big big deal. Most know I have had a 1.16 target for well over a year now. Sadly if it gets there that may not even stop it. I'll do a new EUR/USD post next week. See Shanky Does the EUR/USD for a more historical perspective.

Oil - For those wondering why I have been looking to $85 for some time now here is your reason. The green support diag is off the '08 lows and the $85 number is key for several other economic reasons. $74 is major s/r going back to '05. Watch that level carefully if things start to get fugly.

Gold - Pink channel down thru yellow and white LT support is a major breakdown technically that people don't want to see. 1523 s/r matches the December lows after the crash off the 1927 top. This is a pretty major support point.

Silver - After spiking to near $50 the fall has been brutal, but there is hope for the silver bulls here as yellow support off the '08 lows is mere points away now. Green channel resistance and yellow support are pinching price here and something will have to give between now and August. Throw in $27.50 support and you get a real sticking point for this PM. Note that gold has already taken out this yellow LT support.

UST 10yr  - This chart really says it all - No commentary is necessary.

SPX Holiday Chart - How does the SPX perform rolling into a holiday weekend? Well here is your road map. Draw your own conclusions. Basically it appears on the surface that price more than likely will ramp into a holiday weekend during a bull run and there is no effect in a bear run. Memorial day, Labor Day, 4th of July and Christmas are on the chart.

The sad news is I blew up my FOMC meeting chart yesterday and will have to rebuild that beauty. Expect to see that soon.

GL and GB!

Morning Charts 05/16/12 #SPX $ES

Not much to say other than everyone is waiting to see if the EU is going to implode and then if the ECB/Fed is going to do anything about it. Everyone is looking for the backstop to magically appear as it always does in these times. The only thing different this time is there appears to much more certainty that an event will happen. It is that deer in the headlights moment where everyone is frozen and fear is real (but not showing in market actions as the Fed/PPT still manage to keep a bid out there at the right price and the right time).

EUR/USD - Critical level is an understatement. Must stick save here is a no brainer. The proverbial line in the sand is that green support diagonal which has held the major lows since 2002. Price came within .002 points from tagging it last night and that may have been it. It should take something more than news or rumors to crack this point. If this goes it should be a duck and cover moment. My technical read of this is that we experienced either a real breakdown and much worse is to come or this was a blow off excessive move bottom that is about to bounce back possibly as high as to close the second gap near 1.30.

Shanky Does the EUR/USD

Here is how it all falls out -

Monthly - Note green LT support throughout the charts.

Morning Charts 05/11/12 #SPX #ES

Running a bit late this AM ,sorry. If I don't include charts you want to see in the post, please ask in the commentary and I will cue you up whatever you want to see. My stockcharts issues have been cleared up. Thanks for all the notes and support on that issue. Nice to know so many care and are watching.

Well, JPM slips, no biggie. My take on it - When they control and operate in an unregulated world and there is a proven US taxpayer backstop for any mistake (no matter how big) who gives a crap how many billions you lose? You can read the posts on ZH for the details.

Minis 30m - Struggling for form down here at 1340 support. Range bound working   off overbought conditions and the dailys especially forming pos divergences. Market has every right to bust support and make the next move to 1300/1295 area, but will they allow it? I bet the EWT folks are having a blast counting this mess.

Shanky's Morning Chartapalooza 05/10/12 #SPX #ES #GOLD #OIL #DOLLAR #Silver #EUR/USD

Let's get it on! Listen to all Inc's ol school rap on the AD last night and now you gettin sum N.W.A style STB in da monin - hit it.

Gold - Blue channel down into the depths of support diagonals off the '08 lows. Better make a break north soon or hold 1569 cause the next stop will be 1470. No fret, just makes for better buying opp. Let it fall. Please fall. STB wants to gets mo gold at lower prices. It is the only thing worth owning these days (with a side of silver).

Morning Chartapalooza II - 05/09/12 #SPX $ES #Silver #EUR/USD #Dollar #AUD/JPY

Cause you all like the Chartapaloozas so much - here we go again. I told you for weeks everything was set up to explode/implode.


Minis - Triple bottom at 1342 or will there be worse? My call for 1341 wound up being pretty good. Now my caution at this level is proven warranted. At this time everything is pointing to 1260/70 area, and I'm not giving up on 1170 just yet.

Morning Chartapalooza 05/08/12 #Gold #Oil #Dollar #EUR/USD #SPX $ES

No commentary today, just a bunch of charts. A major rant is coming soon. Let's just say I decided to stay quiet this morning cause I have nothing nice to say about anything.

Gold - All sorts of technical levels should be driving gold traders crazy right now (not to mention those pesky speculators).

First a monthly LT chart so you can see the where the white channel support that price is testing right now starts.

EUR/USD, Dollar, Gold, Oil Charts

EUR/USD -

Weekly - Note pink channel down. Green support is off 2002 lows, so that's major support.

Daily - Closer view of the near term channel into LT support.

Morning Market Summary and Charts 04/24/12 #SPX $ES

AAPL is all that matters today. I will do an AAPL chart post after the opening bell. Hint - E touch/overthrow of a 12 year massive giant wedge is never a good thing. The end is near.

Well, here we are. After preaching patience and weeks of earnings and waiting on the FOMC meeting, my days of reckoning have arrived. Tomorrow is a big one as well, but maybe the Fed will play their hand today.

Minis 30m - Busted pink November support was a big deal yesterday. The backtest of the more recent channel (yellow) is now complete. Can they stretch it back to 1378/80 ares for a backtest of the pink diag? This chart has all the key support and resistance points on it. Remember an even bigger deal is that lower green support diagonal which is what I am seeing as a neckline of a head and shoulders that targets the 1290 area.

Morning Market Commentary and Charts 04/23/12 #SPX $ES

OK, this is not good (if you are a bulltard). Pink support off the November lows has been breached and so has the recent blue bull trap/ bear flag channel. This appears to be a real break and not just some tail they are gonna throw thru support. As always, I will caution against the backtest of both breaks.

Morning Market Summary and charts 04/12/12 - $SPX $ES $Gold $Silver $Oil $Dollar

Let's make this very simple this morning - Last week we were not going to QE and the markets started to fall. Six days in a row and 70 SPX points later I guess that was all they wanted to see. Now we suddenly have Dudley Joins Yellen In Leaving QE Door Wide Open | ZeroHedge. Maybe they knew the jobs number was going to miss and Dudley was trying to goose the futures? I would not put it past them. Initial Jobless Claims Soar Past Expectations, Hit 380K, Highest Since January | ZeroHedge.

Either way the full court QE press is back on. Strangely the markets are not reacting as they should. With Yellen talking about taking ZIRP to 2015 (wasn't it just last August they moved that timetable to 2014?) the truth is becoming more clear. Things suck. How bad do they suck (or should I say how bad has the Bernank's liquidity reflation trade failed)? I suggest you read Presenting Economic Reality | ZeroHedge

Earnings season suck and I hate it. GOOG after the close today and JPM in the morning. That may keep market activity down as we wait on the numbers.

Morning Market Commentary and Charts 03/02/12 #SPX $ES

I don't have much to cover news wise this morning. The liquidity train in the EU pulled into the station and got a full tank and is ready to roll again.

Here is the scam, the fleecing, the theft in broad daylight that the banksters that hold the world hostage (cause they are the only ones that can print money) are pulling off - "roughly 800 European banks will bleed by €6 billion in the next year just to store their cash with the ECB." What Carry Trade? Euro Banks Deposit Entire LTRO 2 At ECB, Bring Total To Over $1 Trillion | ZeroHedge. So they print money from thin air to infuse an insolvent banking system only to immediately receive all of it back in deposit and collect 75 bps in the process - BRILLIANT. Where does the money come from to pay the loss on the carry trade? Your pocket and mine. That's fucked up and the sheeple of the world do nothing. that's even more fucked up.

Afternoon Delight 02/29/12 - Busted

OK, it is finally gut check time for the bulls and bears. Since the beginning of the year I've preached form and patience. Today form may have outruled substance, finally. We've all been watching the LTRO2 coming, the Greece situation and dodging the QE3 rumors (which are sure to spike with any market weakness). Markets can not fall. That is illegal now isn't it? Well, they closed down today (actually on lower lows) and at least spiked thru my purple support.

The biggest joke of the day and the must see chart (so far) of the year is in Ben Bernanke: "The ECB Is Well Capitalized" | ZeroHedge. "In other words, the ECB's leverage is 36.6x. This according to Ben Bernanke is "well-capitalized."" I suggest you not be drinking anything when you look at this, cause it may come out your nose. Question: does anyone out there remember what got us into all this mess in the first place? Bueller? Heeeeere we go again!

Morning Market Commentary and Charts 02/29/12 $ES #SPX #EUR/USD #Gas

So what we get drunk. So what we don't sleep. So what we go out. That's how its supposed to be living young and wild and free. I'm tempted to rewrite that song and relate it to the financial crisis. Should not be too hard. Pretty much nails the Keynsian mantra and the life we live under the Fed today.

EUR/USD - Just one massive green rising (bearish) wedge.

Morning Market Commentary and Charts 02/01/12 #SPX #Gold #EUR/USD

I'm already annoyed enough with all the EU bull and the hopium trade, then I see this headline this morning, Is the Facebook IPO the Start of Another Tech Bubble? - CNBC. Yes, some dork gets paid to write shit like that. I may have to totally rework the blog to a hopium induced orgy of green shoot bullshit. How's this sound for a first post - Unicorns Take It Up the Ass And Shit Gold Bricks - Is There One With Your Name On It? I bet it would get a gazillion hits. It would be picked up by the AP and poof I would be the next hottest guest host on CNBS. The whole entitlement crowd would be searching far and wide for their take of the load. It is not St. Patrick's Day, but I think the groundswell looking for the loot would look something like this.

EUR/USD Update - Confusion?

Looking at the confusion relating to currency movements - Why anyone would want either the EUR or the USD fiat is beyond me, but they are all we got (till gold reasserts its rightful place in monetary history). So, we cover them till they implode.

For long term charts on the EUR/USD see my earlier post here.

STB has long been on the EUR/USD call of a move to 135 then 125 then 116. Right now the pair is at 127 two points from the 125 target and from the 1.2572 next major low. It is also just above diagonal support off the '02 lows near 1.24 here.

After the backtests of the rising channel off the '08 lows it has been all down hill for the EUR/USD. Now the pair is thru major support at 129 and about to test lower channel support at the 125 level. When do they fight back or does the devaluation continue? Can they fight back may be a more appropriate question? There is pretty fat positive divergence going back to September indicating that this move south is tiring.