Morning Charts 06/20/12 $SPX $ES

Do you ever feel like you live in one of those lesser carnivals that travels the country and sets up in a shady part of town? You know, the low end circus where everything is ridiculously expensive, the food sucks, the rides are dirty and dilapidated, the workers are all zombies and every game you play is designed to rip you off. The reason I ask is that is how I feel about this country and how we are being governed. Somewhere between a bunch of fraud driven side show ripoffs and a used car dealer is where our government sits. This country is fast becoming a side show and is no longer the sparkling and glorious main event.

The whole global financial system has become nothing but a game of chance. Hell, they even rigged that in their own favor. Know what's funny? They are going to even lose at their own game. Skimming off the top and not dipping into your own stash is something that even the less savvy drug dealers know not to do, but not the greedy ass hopium peddlers. They got so high on their own shit they lost all control.

Morning Charts 06/19/12 $SPX $ES

Not much to say again today. Too many balls in the air, so it is not worth speculating on the plethora of outcomes (to bail out or not and how) till the FOMC is out of the way tomorrow. Rumors should be hot and heavy today.

As for the recent calmness in the euro zone - think again as under the covers a goblin looms - Another "We are Saved" Euphoria Lasts Only Moments; European Bond Market Revolts Already as Spain 10-Year Yield Hits Record High 7.28%

I suggest you read - Three Charts Your Stockbroker Won't Want You To See and (my favorite subject to harp on) US Retirement Benefits Underfunding Rises To Record $1.4 Trillion.

Afternoon Delight 06/14/12 - Stress Test

Stress test is right! I'd hate to be the chair behind a central banker's desk right now, because you know it is getting gnawed on pretty heavily right now and will thru the Greek vote this weekend. Here we sit on the verge of a democratic vote that could ruin the elites plans for global banking domination. How do they plan to respond to the threat? Well, they all gang up on the rest of us of course.

Then I read, Here Comes The Mother Of All Rumors: G-20 Sources Say Central Banks Preparing For Coordinated Action. By now you must have realized that for me to attempt to cover all of the bad news is futile. I read it and see it as you do, but regurgitating it here has become more than redundant for most of us. Well this is a must post, do not miss announcement (rumor or not), because this is what it all boils down to. Why? Simple, because the past 4 years of economic stimulus, recovery, green shoot BS Keynesian experiment is about to blow up in their face and the derivatives market that they made billions off of is about to go up in smoke if this vote goes the wrong way.

Morning Charts 06/12/12 $SPX $ES

So the ECB is bailing out the banks so they can bail out the government, does that sound familiar? What will $125bn buy these days? We're about to find out. It appears that possibly the most expensive commodity on the planet right now is TIME and its price is exponentially growing.

Here at home you have Evans willing to write blank checks till pigs fly and Lockhart says that low yield should keep us from printing. The FOMC meeting is on the 20th. There should be some interesting rhetoric in the coming days surrounding the Fed's dilemma.

There is so much uncertainty out there right now between bailouts and how and why and when and who and who is next and who wants their deals reworked and who will need more and when that you can hardly grasp it all. All you need to know is whatever they do, adding more debt is only throwing fuel on an already out of control inferno.

Morning Charts 06/08/12 $SPX $ES

Confusion? Lack of certainty? No conviction? Having trouble believing what is real? Sentiment lagging? Faith flawed? Distrust everything? Creed questioned? Good, you are right where you need to be!

How else do you react (as an investor) to a market that no longer represents anything you have grown to know and understand over your years of study and trading? How do you manage a market that is is totally manipulated and run by computers trading near the speed of light creating false bids and giving the appearance there is actual liquidity ready to absorb your next trade? You should be stunned, horrified, enraged and boiling with anger at what the elite crony capitalists have done to destroy your markets and financial system in the name of greed and pursuit of wealth and power.

Morning Charts 06/07/12 $SPX $ES

What can you say? The markets are solely relying on intervention (read: corruption, fraud, manipulation) to keep from crashing. As the global economies fade and as insurmountable piles of debt exponentially grow, they must print more to keep the global financial life support machines running.  From Zero Hedge - Overnight Sentiment: The People Demand A Bailout #POMOList “and Bernanke will be on his own. God save the markets if he does not deliver, either today at the JEC testimony at 10 am or at 2:15 pm on June 20, as the S&P has now priced in at least 75 points of NEW QE intervention.”

So here you stand as an informed investor. You know the risk, the global strife, the debt and funding issues, you understand that without the liquidity pump that everything dries up worse than the Sahara, what do you do? You (as repeated here almost daily) must follow the Fed. You can not tug on superman's cape. You can not bet against the dealer with the rigged boot. You can not do what is logical, right or correlates to anything involving traditional investment or market theory.

Morning Charts 05/25/12 - Doomsday is Coming - $SPX $ES

What a lovely move that was last night in the minis when the EU opened. I guess the eurobond experiment is back on for now or Germany is coming off its high horse and is willing to at least engage in discussions regarding more bailouts of the insolvent everything in the EU.

Let's not kid ourselves. All the markets, banks, governments and everything related to the insolvent global financial system today is fueled by bailouts or easing or stimulus. Heck, it does not even take a real action to move the markets. As noted here and in other sources, all it takes is a rumor of more easing to rally the markets these days (just see last night's actions for example).

The bottom line is the entitlement state has evolved and expanded from the lower and middle classes to the governments and banks. Everything now functions on handouts. This is not sustainable.

Everything now has a fiat backstop (think JPM's big failed bet). There is no risk until the printers stop printing. I have tried over the years to tell you that this is real and it is the new norm. Maybe some of you do not get it when I Shanktify things (try hard to put complicated things into real and humerus terms). Read this post and maybe it will make the situation more clear. Guest Post: The Big Print Is Coming | ZeroHedge

You see the Fed, BIS, ECB, IMF are the duckt tape string unraveling threads that hold the system together now. Without intervention (or the rumor of) and a whole lot of it, this market collapses and everything goes with it. Intervention (printing fiat dollars to infinity) can not continue forever. An unregulated, unchecked, rogue, self serving wild west financial system has evolved and until that system is destroyed and sound REGULATED financial principals put in place (which should have happened in 2008) nothing will get better it will only get worse.

To emphasize that they are finally losing control and the end is near please read, "According to the latest figures out of Google Trends, Americans have been searching for the term “bank run” in record numbers in recent days, outstripping the level of concern displayed following the collapse of Lehman Brothers in 2008. " Google Trends: Fear Of Bank Runs Hits All Time High For Americans Alex Jones' Infowars. The sheeple are starting to get it and are waking up to the fraud.

I've been telling you for years to get out, get into gold, silver, guns, ammo, water filter, seeds, food and to store wads of cash at home. Get your money out of dollars and into real assets that can sustain and protect you and your family. Items that can be bartered work well too. It you think you will be able to walk down to your local bank after this crash hits and be able to walk out with say $5,000 you are ignorant. HA! You can't even do that now - go try it. They will tell you they do not have it and to come back another day. If you think the grocery stores will always be stocked think again., If you think FEMA will come and deliver enough food don't kid yourself. If you think order will be kept, ha, you are in serious trouble.

Here is the chart that I like the best to show you what I think is coming. Actually this chart assumes an orderly (but hasty) exit that will take about two years (2013 and 14). I personally think that is way too optimistic and when this crash happens it will be swift and true market capitulation (everyone running for the exits at once which did not happen in '08) occurs. The target box has a low end of about 630 SPX. I can see a 4 handle before this is all over and that could happen as early as  2013.

For years my calls have been for massive global default and a market crash that will include at least two market closures. It is the only fathomable way out. Don't forget that history has never experienced financial times like these and not been able to avoid a war of some sort.

Minis 5m - All the lines you should need to see. Backtesting busted green diag support here with red (old resistance off the 07 and 11 tops) being the big driver here.

Enjoy the holiday weekend. I'll be getting my usual does of Corexit this weekend. School is out for us which may alter some of my morning posts a bit (I like to sleep more in the summer). Congrats to all those with graduates! Welcome to the world of the student loan bubble. I suggest you familiarize yourself with that issue.

GL and GB!

Morning Chartapalooza 05/24/12 $SPX $ES

Cause the news is horroble across the board and the markets are obviously in 'anticipate more easing' mode (price should be down three times what is is up right now) I'm just gonna sling some charts at you this morning. If you have any questions about 'easing mode' see the AD last night. that will explain everything. I do recommend you read Welcome To Chez Central Planner: Presenting The Complete Fed/ECB Response Menu | ZeroHedge if you have any interest in understanding the plethora of ways the Fed/ECB can try and wiggle their way out of most any situation (till they can't).

Minis 30m - Backtesting the yellow wedge and meeting green resistance off the 1413 top (not anywhere near the 1420 resistance diag that is near 1394). The red diagonal that is acting as a support area here is the old upper market resistance diag off the 2007 and 2011 tops. The backtest occurring here is a major support play and if this goes significantly then real downside action will be coming. Upside 1341 is my first major resistance.

Dollar - Yellow LT channel support held and the rally is on channeling up thru LT resistance near $81 in a real power play. It is amazing a worthless piece of paper (fiat) is something that gains strength in the most dire times. Just follow the greeen channel for now. I'll do a dollar post next week or you can see Shanky Does the Dollar for a more historical perspective. 

EUR/USD - Pink falling channel/wedge cracking MAJOR support is a MAJOR deal. The busted green support goes back to the '02 lows. The 1.25 area has been major support/resistance since '98. This crack is a big big deal. Most know I have had a 1.16 target for well over a year now. Sadly if it gets there that may not even stop it. I'll do a new EUR/USD post next week. See Shanky Does the EUR/USD for a more historical perspective.

Oil - For those wondering why I have been looking to $85 for some time now here is your reason. The green support diag is off the '08 lows and the $85 number is key for several other economic reasons. $74 is major s/r going back to '05. Watch that level carefully if things start to get fugly.

Gold - Pink channel down thru yellow and white LT support is a major breakdown technically that people don't want to see. 1523 s/r matches the December lows after the crash off the 1927 top. This is a pretty major support point.

Silver - After spiking to near $50 the fall has been brutal, but there is hope for the silver bulls here as yellow support off the '08 lows is mere points away now. Green channel resistance and yellow support are pinching price here and something will have to give between now and August. Throw in $27.50 support and you get a real sticking point for this PM. Note that gold has already taken out this yellow LT support.

UST 10yr  - This chart really says it all - No commentary is necessary.

SPX Holiday Chart - How does the SPX perform rolling into a holiday weekend? Well here is your road map. Draw your own conclusions. Basically it appears on the surface that price more than likely will ramp into a holiday weekend during a bull run and there is no effect in a bear run. Memorial day, Labor Day, 4th of July and Christmas are on the chart.

The sad news is I blew up my FOMC meeting chart yesterday and will have to rebuild that beauty. Expect to see that soon.

GL and GB!

Afternoon Delight 05/23/12 - Nothing Has Changed

Look, it is so basic. If you do not get it by now you are a lost soul and need to get your head examined. It is all bout easing and nothing else. The markets are rigged and respond like Pavlov's dog to the slightest mention of the Fed printing to control market price movement. 

In the commentary today I posted, "Who does this sound like?"

"With Europe hitting the skids, EURUSD at multi-year lows, and the US equity market down a whopping (and terrifying) 9% from its March highs, it seems the market remains increasingly hopeful that this time will not be different in that the Central Banks of the world will print and save us once more." QE's Long Shadow Is Getting Shorter | ZeroHedge 

Now STB this morning, "There is really not much to say as the markets hang in limbo surrounded by bad news already having fallen just shy of 10% to the 38% retracement of the climb off the 1100 close in October. Twist is still on and ends next month. The FB IPO is done. Everyone appears to be waiting on the Fed and ECB to make a move or signal there is more easing to come. Why else would the markets have rallied the past few days?"

Further in that same post TD states, "we estimate (based on QE1 and QE2) that the S&P could trade down to 1100-1150 before we see Ben step in to save the world" which is a bit more pessimistic than the 1170 worst case target I have been spewing since before the 1420 top. Recently I posted that I was looking for a manufactured crash since almost this time last summer to allow for the easing call to be a layup. I got a crash and easing, but this time it appears more are coming around to my way of thinking (and beginning to use the term 'exogenous event' we coined years ago). 

Today's late price rally was nothing but rumor based BS. Something about a FDIC like insurance program for the EU. LOL, who's gonna pay the insurance? the insolvent governments or the money printing ECB? LMAO. That's funny. As Reality Recedes, Rumor Rampage Returns | ZeroHedge. What's sad is that rumors (and BS government data) are the new reality and we must deal with them as proven over the past two years. You get some fear and an oversold market and the rumors get really ripe, and thus you get a roughly 190 point pop in the DOW to close down - get this - 6.66 today. 

To understand the major issues on the table in the EU right now you should read Markets slump ahead of key EU summit - Telegraph "European markets fell heavily on Wednesday morning as investors doubted an EU summit would lead to a solution of the eurozone's problems." Since the elections changed the landscape in France and Greece the strategy that the troika followed for the past several years has been turned upside down. 

To give you a quick reminder of how bad things are on the other side of the globe ,"The ratings agency Fitch on Tuesday lowered its assessment of Japan’s sovereign credit to A+, an investment grade just above the likes of Spain and Italy, and criticized Tokyo for not doing more to pare down its burgeoning debt. 

Japan’s public debt will hit almost 240 percent of its gross domestic product by the end of the year, Fitch warned. Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis: Japanese Debt Downgraded by Fitch; No Urgency for Japan (Until Sudden Panic Hits). Did you catch that 240% number? And no one is worried? Riiiight. 

Speaking of issues in Japan, you must bring up the unthinkable (which has proven to become thinkable). To those AFL long holders, you have been warned now about the debt and this issue for quite some time, "Chris Canine – who has 15 years experience as a health physics technician, chemist and radiation safety instructor – told Energy News that if number 4 reactor fuel pool at Fukushima collapses, Japan will be evacuated. Fukushima: If Number 4 Collapses, Japan Will Be Evacuated Alex Jones' Infowars. Think this can't happen? Think again, this is far worse than Chernobyl that has an evacuation zone that would, if in Japan, have all 40 million in the Tokyo area evacuated by now if the prevailing wind was not directly East all the time. (Just scratching the surface here - it really is worse than this)

SPX 60m - Is that blue wedge right? Down for E? I'm not sure about the possible divergences in the indicators since a lower low was not achieved, but oversold it is. The count would be for a move up here before further weakness. My upside max right now is near 1370 with a stop at my 1341 level being the first major resistance. 

GL and GB!

Shanky's Morning Chartapalooza 05/10/12 #SPX #ES #GOLD #OIL #DOLLAR #Silver #EUR/USD

Let's get it on! Listen to all Inc's ol school rap on the AD last night and now you gettin sum N.W.A style STB in da monin - hit it.

Gold - Blue channel down into the depths of support diagonals off the '08 lows. Better make a break north soon or hold 1569 cause the next stop will be 1470. No fret, just makes for better buying opp. Let it fall. Please fall. STB wants to gets mo gold at lower prices. It is the only thing worth owning these days (with a side of silver).

Morning Chartapalooza 05/08/12 #Gold #Oil #Dollar #EUR/USD #SPX $ES

No commentary today, just a bunch of charts. A major rant is coming soon. Let's just say I decided to stay quiet this morning cause I have nothing nice to say about anything.

Gold - All sorts of technical levels should be driving gold traders crazy right now (not to mention those pesky speculators).

First a monthly LT chart so you can see the where the white channel support that price is testing right now starts.

Morning Market Summary and Charts 05/07/12 #SPX $ES

Well, I guess a change in leadership is not always welcomed. Hey, look at what we got a little over three years ago. Our move to socialism has proven to be nothing but a spending spree, job loss ridden, freedom stealing and exponentially crony run government that serves the corporate elite. The markets don't like it all that much when their elitists insider crony system loses its pawns. I'm pretty sure that The Fed, ECB and the BIS are pretty much shitting in their pants right now and that's not because they got hold of some bad Mexican food over the holiday weekend.

We've discussed for a long long time that Greece is nothing but a (like AIG after TARP funded our banks) conduit to funnel bailouts thru to the EU banks. So, if Greece changes their stance, leaves the EU and tells the elites to go F off, the whole system crashes and the derivative dominoes start falling.

What about France? Sadly the Merkosy era has ended. What happens when a three legged stool loses a leg? Not good is it? The markets expressed their displeasure last night in the results of these elections.

Morning Market Summary and Charts 05/04/12 #SPX $/ES

"Expectations were for an increase in non farm payrolls of 160,000, and a 8.2% unemployment rate. We got +115,000, and 130,000 privates. Unemployment rate at 8.1%, lowest since January 2009." US Added 115,000 Jobs In April, Huge Miss Of Expectations; Unemployment Rate 8.1% | ZeroHedge

So, what does all this mean. Well, I've been listening to the CNBS propaganda machine this morning (for the second time in about 9 months, I hate them) and thankfully they have me feeling all good and giddy about these stellar results. That's not true. What is true is their reporting has been nothing but confusing and misleading and I feel worse for having turned on that spin infested crap spewing machine (sans Santelli).

Market reaction did me no good either. Obviously the number was leaked and just before 8:30 the minis fell from 1386 to 1380 in a millisecond. Then the actual announcement hit and futures fell as low as 1378.25. Must have been a bad initial reaction cause 4 minutes and 11 points later the minis hit 1389. Where are they now at 8:49? Why down at 1381 of course 8 points off the high. Nice. All is well. Markets are functioning normally. Just a horrific miss well below everyone's lowest estimate and the markets surge 11 points. WTF? This is stupid.

Afternoon Delight 05/03/12 - Well?

Is it time to duck and cover? We'll see with the NFP in the morning. To be truthful it all depends on what the Fed wants. How will the markets react to a disappointing number? Will they rejoice because it brings near surety of additional levitating QE? Will they fall apart as the charts have been indicating they will? If so, how far will the Fed let it slide?

Major support was basically decimated today, but the first support under the support diagonal buts has held. As I asked today, under what level do the sell orders sit?

Minis 5m - Here is the wedge I was talking about today. Pink was major support. 1386 that is holding now is first support. 1374 is next.

Afternoon Delight 05/02/12 - The Event?

OK, so is this a candidate for what I have been so concerned about and what the charts have been pointing to over the past few weeks?

Previewing Tomorrow's Floating Rate Treasury Launch | ZeroHedge

"When we last discussed what now appears certain to be a TBAC announcement tomorrow that Floating Rate Treasurys are about to be launched by the US during the Treasury, we cautioned, using an analysis by the IMF's Singh, that "the US Treasury may be telegraphing to the world that it, or far more importantly, the TBAC, is quietly preparing for a surge in interest rates." We then continued that "What is also obvious is that if the TBAC is quietly shifting the market into preparation mode for "a steady (or rocky) rise in rates from near zero to a "neutral" fed funds rate of 400 bps and a "normal" 5 percent yield on 2 year U.S. Treasuries" as the IMF warns, then all hell is about to break loose in stocks, as by now everyone is aware that without the Fed liquidity, and not just liquidity, but "flow" or constant injection of liquidity, as opposed to merely "stock", VIX will explode, equities will implode, and all hell would break loose."

Morning Market Summary and Charts 05/01/12 #SPX $ES

May Day - for those that do not know about May Day I suggest you read May Day - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia  "As Europe became Christianized the pagan holidays lost their religious character and either changed into popular secular celebrations, as with May Day, or were merged with or replaced by new Christian holidays as with Christmas, Easter, Pentecost and [[All Saint's Day][citation needed]]. In the twentieth century, many neopagans began reconstructing the old traditions and celebrating May Day as a pagan religious festival again."

So, we advanced from pagan celebrations to Christian ones. That is a bit symbolic of these times except we seem to be doing the reverse. Our government is truly corrupt and the police state is growing more each day stealing our freedoms one by one. We as sheeple appear to be less reverent than in the past now worshiping the golden idols of debt and credit.

We no longer primarily serve God. We serve ourselves in our quest for the easy life. Toil has been replaced by entitlement. It appears that the masses are more than willing to choose the easy route, entitlement, in exchange for loss of freedom.

Morning Markets Commentary and Charts 04/27/12 #SPX $ES

This is just so stupid. Well, everything is truly stupid these days. The extend and pretend game, the implicit belief CB's have to power to solve any problem, the faith that governments serve our best interests and will always be there for us, the belief that piling unmanageable piles of debt on top of already unmanageable amounts will  solve something; it is all pure insanity.

At least we have the Printer in Chief running the show over here spinning growth and stabilization keeping the illusion alive. In the EU they are fractured, disorganized, unbalanced and can not attain the coordination to keep their union alive.

The stress is really beginning to show after the LTRO2 farce bailout pump did not even stabilize things for a month. "Now, two months later, even the members of the European Parliament are openly questioning their belief in the sociopath ECB chief. After laying out the apparent reasons for the LTRO scheme (at a recent European Parliament hearing) to keep banks well-funded, Godfrey Bloom (MEP) describes the implicit reason - or so-called reach-around (sic.) Sarkozy-carry trade to fund governments circumventing Maastricht and article 104 of the ECB's Treaty" Memo To Draghi: We, The People, "Don't Trust You One Inch" | ZeroHedge

AAPL Earnings and Chart - Shanktified

The end is near. Growth happens till it doesn't and then Wall St starts setting lower hurdles to perpetuate the lie till that does not work any longer. That is the new peak  life cycle theory developed by renowned chartist, part-time economist, blogger and master bullshit artist Shanky (me).

Seriously, you all know that is how it works these days. Traditional economics can be thrown out with the baby and the bathwater (which it is becoming acceptable these days the trow the baby out, but heavens don't waste that water!). 

Wall St. analysts (I say this every quarter here) are rigging the game. Normally (pre-QE when things were real) if an estimate was lowered price would suffer greatly. These days (with easing - pick your favorite flavor) estimates are lowered and price does not react at all because easing lifts all tides. This creates an artificially low hurdle and the easy beat to perpetuate the HFT/Algo driven, liquidity fed, Wall Streeet/Fed/Treasury farce manipulated POS market we deal with today. 

Morning Market Summary and Charts 04/24/12 #SPX $ES

AAPL is all that matters today. I will do an AAPL chart post after the opening bell. Hint - E touch/overthrow of a 12 year massive giant wedge is never a good thing. The end is near.

Well, here we are. After preaching patience and weeks of earnings and waiting on the FOMC meeting, my days of reckoning have arrived. Tomorrow is a big one as well, but maybe the Fed will play their hand today.

Minis 30m - Busted pink November support was a big deal yesterday. The backtest of the more recent channel (yellow) is now complete. Can they stretch it back to 1378/80 ares for a backtest of the pink diag? This chart has all the key support and resistance points on it. Remember an even bigger deal is that lower green support diagonal which is what I am seeing as a neckline of a head and shoulders that targets the 1290 area.

Afternoon Delight 04/23/12 - SHTF Edition

As mentioned this morning, all the charts are finally adding up to an increasingly narrowing point where it appears some major event is about to happen. TA is there across many markets. The stars are aligned.

The Russian Market being closed today would make for a nice first domino. French elections, Greece elections, Dutch resignations, EU non easing, Fed non easing, AAPL miss, MENA, Israel, Iran, Egypt, Syria, China ... I could go on and on. We're one 'event' from a tidal wave of erupting the emotional powder keg that is global tension.

Weekly Indicator Chart - (Best viewed at the link) - I'm looking at the last three major tops and none of them turned on a dime. They all gave us at least one major corrective and rally to a higher high before the ultimate collapse. I'm not saying that has to happen here. I like the right shoulder being complete and the ultimate top being set for the three phase 'recovery' that was not really a recovery. Look closely at the chart below off the 667 lows and see what $27 trillion can do for a market (and banksters wallets) in an economy that is turning to dust. Green Dashed lines would be an optimal fall scenario for me.