Tuesday, June 19, 2012

Morning Charts 06/19/12 $SPX $ES

Not much to say again today. Too many balls in the air, so it is not worth speculating on the plethora of outcomes (to bail out or not and how) till the FOMC is out of the way tomorrow. Rumors should be hot and heavy today.

As for the recent calmness in the euro zone - think again as under the covers a goblin looms - Another "We are Saved" Euphoria Lasts Only Moments; European Bond Market Revolts Already as Spain 10-Year Yield Hits Record High 7.28%

I suggest you read - Three Charts Your Stockbroker Won't Want You To See and (my favorite subject to harp on) US Retirement Benefits Underfunding Rises To Record $1.4 Trillion.

As called, we're in consolidation mode testing the upper end of my range near 1341. All I am willing to give for upside here is 1374 on the minis. That's not saying it can't go higher. 1341 has cracked for a second time and the SPX daily looks like it could want to run. here you can see the large blue wedge that I see as a possibility. The smaller current wedge can be seen in the next chart.

SPX 60m - This chart is on its third negative divergence and you can see the wedge I believe is in play. It may not be in its final form though. So, on a short term basis this market is very overbought. Possible B or 2nd wave (in EWT parlance). If so, what follows will not be pretty.

Minis Daily - Above 1341 then 1345 there is the upper blue wedge resistance then 68 and then 74. It is pretty busy with resistance to 1380 then a hole to 1400.

Minis 30m - So you can see the points I will be looking at today. The 1320 area is loaded with support.

Sorry, but you know me, I think there is no reason to speculate what the Fed or G 20 will do. Let them show their hand and then react is the safest play IMHO. It is like that box of chocolates, you have no idea what you are gonna get. Best to remain patient. The world is in a world of hurt right now and things are not getting any better.

GL and GB!

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