Morning Charts 10/08/12 SPX /ES

CBO CONFIRMS FOURTH CONSECUTIVE YEAR OF TRILLION-DOLLAR DEFICITS UNDER OBAMA. I did not all cap that post title, that is the way it came. If it wasn't I would have all cap'd it myself. It is a point that needs to be emphasized. "The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) reported on Friday that the budget deficit for 2012 was $1.1 trillion and was only $200 billion less than 2011's deficit because Oct.1, 2011 fell on a weekend."

What can we say about this audacity that we have not been addressing over the past three years here at STB? Absolutely nothing. Three years of bitching and moaning and truth telling have in a way gotten old. I'm tired of waking up day after day and reporting the same thing over and over and over for years. The outrageousness of it all is beyond comprehension.

To sit here day after day and watch our future be sold out from under us so the TBTF's can be glorified saved and the entitlement class can be exponentially expanded at the expense of current and future generations is horrifying. Watching a government out of control serving the special interests over their subjects the people who should control the overall situation is astounding.

Morning Charts 10/03/12 SPX /ES

Very quickly on the debate tonight - does it really matter? IMO Obummer is the quick way to the end game and Romney is just a longer stroll to the same end. Bottom line is do you want to go down under a black or white man? I will not listen tonight or the next time cause spin, lies and cover ups are a total waste of my time. Discussing abortion and gay rights is not important at this time. Discussing the real issues that matter like the destruction of individual rights, the destruction of the Constitution, the banker takeover, special interest control of DC, real regulation, debt, the destruction of the US financial system, the ravaged economy, and a solid foreign policy should be the only things discussed but will barely be addressed.

Another reason I will not listen is that I literally can not stand to see or hear O speak. As an American he disturbs me more than I can put into words. (there is another tick mark for the handler to put on my record). Shock poll results have the race dead even. I laugh at those results every time I see them as I really can't understand why anyone would vote for either candidate. I really can't understand how O is even on the ballot. This country was founded by great men, apparently there are none left if this is all we can generate for our presidency.

IMF chief economist says crisis will last a decade - "The world economy will take at least 10 years to emerge from the financial crisis that began in 2008, the International Monetary Fund's Chief Economist Olivier Blanchard said in an interview published on Wednesday." A smidgeon of truth? Two words for the chief economist - Strauss-Kahn. You better have eyes in the back of your head my friend.

Morning Charts 10/01/12 SPX /ES

Let's face it, they are gonna ease no matter what, how, why, when, where, whatever. We've been saying it for almost a year now. Their backs are against the wall. They have no way out. They will print until the gates of hell open and we are all sucked down the tube to eternal damnation.

From Zero Hedge, "Gold and Silver and surging this morning as the Fed's Charles Evans talks on CNBC of the need for more accomodative policy by the Fed. His 'infiniter' easing seems to have sparked this move as he clarifies the seeming psychopathy of the Federal Reserve's actions. His message clearly is that the amount doesn't matter (nor the unintended consequences), the printing and flooding of money into an already stuffed banking system will continue until morale improves." Permadove Chuck Evans Speaks, Precious Metals Soar (emphasis mine)

Morning Charts 09/27/12 SPX /ES

Let's just blast thru some headlines and you form your own opinions this morning - 

SocGen's Albert Edwards Lowers Equity Allocation To Minimum On Fears "Fed Will Destroy The World" and the last time he did this was in May of '08. Although this man works for the system, like Rosie, I take his words and thoughts seriously. 

Final Q2 GDP Disaster: 1.25% Growth Comes Below Lowest Estimate - yet the market does not retreat. They lie and expand their estimates up, up, up and the markets follow and the sheeple get right in line. Does the market correct on this news that the economy is in the dumps? Of course not. This means that more market levitating easing will be assured as we QE to infinity. 

Santelli on GDP Numbers: 'Depressingly Weak' I only wish he could tell the truth, the real truth. 

Chicago Fed Asks "What Are Asset Bubbles" As Its President Calls For Even More QE I spoke with Mr. Evans' brother (we golf together) about the Fed and what they are doing not that long ago and all I got was a hung head and a groan. 

Claims for Jobless Benefits in U.S. Fall More Than Forecast Is this a surprise right before an election when the president controls the data. The only surprise to me is that they did not skew the numbers even more than they already are. 

Contempt for Congress Rampant as Public Rejects Sacrifice Well, I did not get any fireworks out of DC as I thought we might before the recess. It appears that they will continue to drive more important issues like gay rights and abortion going into the election and leave minor issues like fiscal cliffs till after the election. The funny part of this post is that we, as typical Americans  want to eat our cake as well. "Fifty-four percent aren’t willing to cap Medicare benefits and raise the eligibility age to 67; 52 percent don’t want to reduce the cost-of-living adjustment for Social Security recipients; 64 percent balk at an increase in individual tax rates; and 58 percent don’t support eliminating some tax deductions, such as those for home mortgage interest or charitable giving." We're so ignorant. 

All the while China took another little blue pill looking for a for hour erection yesterday which makes the global markets happy. It never ceases to amaze me how we celebrate going even deeper in debt like this is good for all. 

Daily SPX - Cause no other charts matter (if any actually). Blue wedge overthrown and waiting on my catalyst. 

Minis Daily - There are three support diagonals for this wedge - Blue which is long gone and at the apex of the blue original wedge was where price began to break down. Yellow was the second support, or support after the first breakdown of the blue wedge, which is what's got price here. Pink is the last line of defense before white and the 200 DMA. 1342, 1400 and 1374 are the key support points. 1502 is key resistance (gotta throw that in cause of the QE love fest). 

Minis 15m - Interaction at the top of the blue wedge and fall to yellow support diagonal and s/r at 1432. Next stop is 1400 if this goes. Potter and friends are doing a great job this morning controlling fear and pumping price. 

GL and GB!

Morning Charts 09/25/12 SPX /ES

Is there really any point in doing market analysis this morning? About the only two farces to be discussed today are the Seahawks touchdown and ESM Purchase Details Leaked. I may have to place the NFL side by side with the globalist agenda to illustrate for the sheeple what is happening as the NFL drifts into a Nazi oppressive style of leadership that is destroying the game all in the name of profit.

We all know now that every EU meeting that is supposed to generate a solution only generates band aid solutions that garner even more meetings.  So the question must be asked Is Draghi's Bond-Buying Dream Circling The Drain As ECB/Bundesbank Lawyer Up? All I have to say is the rumor that started this whole ramp and the unprecedented intervention I warned about a few months back is about to be refuted. Will the markets give back the gains that accompanied said bullshit? Of course not.

So let's spend another day watching another volume less rumor based ramp on the hopes that even more bailouts will save the system (when all we really know is that more bailouts are the worst possible thing that can happen here).

I am still leaning very heavily on calling a top soon. I don't see how the Fed will be able to fight off the coming storm.

Daily SPX - same chart as yesterday. I just wait on my catalyst. There is a chance we have a sell the rumor spin here very soon.

Minis 15m - Enough to make you sea sick. No volume and consolidating with 1445 as support. That will be your key number today.

I've been asking you to learn about Agenda 21 for some time now. If you do not understand where we are headed as a society under UN and globalist rule, you need to read this and see the video. This is some freaky shit and it is real. Globalists Want Chinese-Style Control for Americans Under Agenda 21


I need to add that I am very leery of all the recent updates that Microsoft has been installing on my computer. What seems like more than the norm and more like a flurry of updates have come, and I must admit my computers have been slowing down progressively since their installations. Flash player crashes are far more common and I even got the dreaded blue screen on LS1's computer last night for no apparent reason.

As usual, if something were to happen I'll cover it real time below with targets and such.

GL and GB!

Morning Charts 09/24/12 SPX /ES

Well, I delved into updating the chartbook this weekend after some time away and discovered that there was nothing there to learn. Overbought extreme conditions were confirmed. The confirmation of market exuberant lunacy was acknowledged. Not sure why I updated the chartbook as we all know nothing real matters now in this fully tilted casino called a stock market that runs solely on rumors of easing and perpetual printing.

I do believe the charts have it right. I believe the charts will always get it right. Raw price will never lie. It may mislead in this HFT algo bot driven BB Put supported world, but like the flow of water price will always find the weakest point and then the flow will follow. Till that weak point is discovered and it is excavated, all investors can do is wait till the storm comes.

The storm is coming. The evidence keeps on piling up on the shore. It is hard to look around and find any positives. Economic issues to political and social strife, trouble is everywhere. Central Bank printing can only carry to load so far and when the printing stops it will be the day the music died (and we'll be singin ...).

The news bits that caught my eye this weekend (other than the nastiest, dirty, most disgusting democratic/socialist presidential campaign and the current administration's policy of lie first and force the MSM to report falsehoods to the sheeple) were Greece Caught Underreporting Its Budget Deficit By Nearly 50% and The Fed Has Another $3.9 Trillion In QE To Go (At Least). Does either surprise you?

Proving that even the best are getting burned by the Bernanke Put (so don't feel like you are on an island) Janjuah Stopped Out delivers, "While Nomura's Bob Janjuah remains 100% correct in his diagnosis and prognosis of the current 'grossest misallocation and mispricing of capital in the history of mankind', his tactical short was stopped out last week. The modest loss on the position though provided clarity on the importance of the 1450 level for the S&P 500 and he remains confident that on a multi-month timeframe he expects 800 to be hit with only a muted 10% possible upside in global equities due to underlying growth, debt and policy-maker concerns. Critically, he suggests it is premature to go aggressively short risk at this precise moment, urges traders to stay nimble, and warns "...risk assets are in a bubble which of course can extend, but which can reverse sharply and suddenly. Up here, 'valuation metrics' are not going to help much... this bubble could extend for maybe a few months and by up to 10%, ...but that we could see global equity markets 10/15% lower in virtually a 'heartbeat'."

Now, where have you heard that virtually every day (except I do not delve into upside potential any more other than I have offered 1502 as next major resistance)? Again, STB loves confirmation from the pros. Gangsta style trading, scalp and run, don't get committed short till the turn is set. Wait on the catalyst to turn the momo and then the "event" will come. I believe THE turn will be extremely clear to all.

As for the charts - make of them what you will. You know what I'm doing.

Minis Daily - Hard to read. Let me help you, price just goes up. If something happens I'll drill in and give you the numbers you must know. 1432 is first key support.

SPX Daily - That is one big nasty blue rising wedge that has price overbought and overthrowing upper resistance and should target somewhere near (uhem) 1170.

As usual, more detailed analysis and news below.

Have a great week.

GL and GB!

Morning Charts 08/28/12 SPX /ES

The waiting game continues. The rumors and opinions fly, but no one knows for sure what The Bernank is going to pull out of his ass bag of tricks to fool the investing public this time? With the elections so close can he even hint at policy? Well that's probably what he'll do. He's gonna throw out a few ideas and let them ferment in the market place hoping that (as proven over the past year) rhetoric and not actual action will be enough to keep the markets elevated.

I think a big surprise could come in the form of some real socialist type move. Direct stimulus to the sheeple could be a real possibility. This would have controls of course, but something like this may need to come sooner than later as public sentiment is rapidly deteriorating. Is there a better way of shutting up the screaming baby than to give him a treat?

Draghi To Miss Jackson Hole Forum; All Rumors Now To Focus On ECB September 6 Meeting which will be followed closely by the FOMC meeting September 12th. We're stuck in rumor hell for the next two weeks. This is wonderful for the crony capitalists as the markets barring some sort of event or catalyst will have a steady flow of rumors to keep the markets under control.

Morning Charts 08/20/12 SPX /ES

Something strange happened this morning, a rumor got squashed! What you say? A rumor did not cause a 15 point spike in the e-minis and send the markets soaring to new heights? That's right, the ECB print forever rumor was quickly shot down. Now that's amazing right there. The minis rose as high as 1418 and then began a 5 point slide indicating about a break even open on what appears to be slightly heavier overnight volume than in recent weeks.

Folks, we're in total wait and see mode. Between the EU sorting things out and waiting on Jackson Hole (and add the markets at highs) this holding pattern may be on another week. This little bit of bad news (rumor squash above) is definitely a change in course as this is just the sort of thing they would have let run for a few days to allow the markets to feast on the speculation.

Morning Charts 08/07/12 SPX /ES

OK, this is getting a bit out of hand, two shootings and now a refinery fire. The Sikh temple shooter was a former Army psyops specialist, am I about to go bit far with this? (of course I am) What's next, a war? I'm not sure how to react to this one as a shut down refinery may be the thing that could push the consumer and economy over the edge. Whoa, whoa, wait, the calls for QE3 would be louder than ever.

I may be on to something here - could this be a manufactured terrorist strike on ourselves? Are we the largest sponsor of terrorism on the planet? How about that, and guess what, they did not have to crash the markets to get the fear QE trade up and running. Brilliant! I can see the Manchurian Manbat right now teleprompting this as a good thing to get thousands hired (and then outsource the job to a Chinese outfit). Bottom line is this being an inside job really fits the bill right now given the position of, well, everything. You should actually expect a rash of incidents like these in the coming months as the crony capitalists are finally out of bullets facing he end game.

Morning Charts 07/25/12 $SPX $ES

So AAPL has a massive miss and we're not falling off the cliff. I guess when every hedge fund is up to their neck in one stock that's what happens. No one bailed. Should they have? Of course not, with the 'promise' of another Bernanke Put alive and well (at least for one last round), why should they? Hilsenrath Once Again With The 3:55 PM Sticksave | ZeroHedge We remain in a bad news is good news world with every bad data point released the markets only react with glee as the promise of another trillion hits of market levitating hopium is doled out. 


Yes, another dose of SSDD. Yes, the markets are 50% overvalued. Yes, if things were real with the data points of the past several months and AAPL's miss as the cherry on top we should be facing a lock limit down open today. IT is what it is folks. You invest in a market that is 100% manipulated and controlled. We have evolved from what was once possibly the fairest market on the planet to one that rivals if not surpasses that of China, the most corrupt on the planet. 

Morning Charts 07/18/12 #SPX $ES

It's become like the movie Groundhog Day except the global distortion continues to worsen with each trip down the rabbit hole. The deeper we go down the hole the more troubles that arise, the more the unregulated, fraudulent and totally corrupt system exposes its self. They system is finally starting to turn on its self as the underpinnings of various rigged markets become undone. With each year the debt grows and the economy worsens. Things are not getting better no matter what you have been told. From green shoots till now, everything you have ever heard about a recovery from anyone has been a lie.

This Is What Happened This Time Last Year After Ben Bernanke Spoke To Congress from Zero Hedge has this excellent observation, "A week after Bernanke spoke last year we saw the highs for H2 2012 (1345) before moving aggressively lower into the low 1100s through August- October as Europe’s problems intensified and the US debt ceiling problems came to a head. One year on and the biggest H2 risks are probably similar. US data is weakening, Europe’s problems could easily come to a head again and the fiscal cliff could become a major issue, albeit slightly later in the year. We also now have a China slowdown to contend with. So the parallels are there."

Morning charts 07/17/12 $SPX $ES

So, the system truly is corrupt (as STB has been claiming for years). Money laundering and backdoor deals do exist (and soon to be proven unicorns and sprites exist as well). It was only a matter of time before the unregulated mess we call a financial system began to expose its gnarly underside. Most recently Senate Throws The Book At HSBC Accusing It Of Massive "Money Laundering And Terrorist Financing", No Comment On NAR Money Laundering Yet from Zero Hedge highlights the nastiness that it takes to keep the current system alive and running like the well oiled bribed or paid off machine it is. 


The JPM fiasco is just beginning as to their rigging of the CDS markets (one among many yet to be uncovered not to mention silver) with the criminal (very unusual but much welcomed word to associate with a bank isn't it?) inquiry. I can pretty much assure you that before this mess is all over it will be discovered that everything was rigged. Well at least we can rest assured now knowing the treasury was not using taxpayer money for sex (unlike the SEC's online ventures). 


The big news today will be the Bernank's testimony at 10:00, where you can be assured QE will highlight the conversation along with the decades of LIEBOR manipulation. I've been telling you for years the markets were rigged. It is fun to get the last laugh after years of "that can't be" and the "Shanky you're nuts" emails and conversations. OF course the naysayers are all off in their holes somewhere cocooning and living in their permanent state of denial. 


Where will be the next points of reference that STB will be correct? The coming socialist state where the police crackdown will be unprecedented in our history and the confiscation of every retirement asset in the country would be the two best places to start. What a wonderful world we live in. 


As for the markets, the consolidation continues along the bottom of the blue rising wedge. The potential STB point where white s/r at 1341intersects with blue wedge support is just below. I thought we'd consolidate below 1341 into today, but instead we're doing it just above the support. The chart below and on cash both show the 60m ready to roll over with some telling divergences. 

Maybe the Bernank will disappoint today? I know I will remain sidelined until the Fed tells me what to do. If 1341 cracks, there is real danger of price finding "Big Red" at 1300 if not worse. Upside potential should be limited and any movement up should be a struggle. As usual earnings season adds to some of my predictive paralysis, noting that this is a tough time to try and get too far ahead of anything as it takes so little to start a mini bull run. I'll see if I can get a post up on earnings with some charts.

I would like to suggest that you read the #Barack ObamaDidItForThem feed on twitter. It was one of the best reads of the year so far IMO. One laugh after another at the expense of or fine potus. 


GL and GB!

Morning Charts 07/12/12 $SPX $ES

I asked the board if anyone had a queasy feeling about things yesterday afternoon after the 10yr auction. (Tomorrow is Friday the 13th) Response was muted. I suspect it was so because of the confusion the results the sale generated. I noted since the weekend that I had been a bit confused as to what the charts were saying vs. what I was seeing/feeling. It is rare I have a hick up in my prognosticative abilities and usually when that happens the balance of the investing universe is not right.

Let's review TD's write up about the 10yr auction yesterday (read this twice please to let it sink in), "Only one word to explain the just completed 10 year reopening auction. WTF!!! While the 10 year When Issued was trading at 1.516% at 1pm, when the release hit of the final High Yield on the bond,jaws dropped, as it came at a shocking 1.459%, nearly 6 bps inside of the WI, a record, a yield which also was a record, a Bid To Cover of 3.61 which was the second highest ever, second only to the 3.72 in April 2010, but it was the internals that were the most jarring of all. Unlike all recent auctions in the past 4 years, the Primary Dealer take down was only 14% a record low in recent years, and a hit rate of 6.8%, another record low. The offset: Directs, which took down a whopping 45.4%, another record, after tendering a record $16.9 billion in bids. All in all there was no definitive reason to explain why this auction was so very, very off the charts, and so mispriced by the secondary market, suffice to say WTF, and that this is what happens when there continues to be just one game in town: frontrun the Fed!"

The 10 year auction is bringing flashbacks of the tops in 2010 and 2011 when I made two of the best top calls in my brief history. Many things are different this time. QE is not ending, Twist has been extended and the Fed's tool box remains "open". They are no longer experimenting with pulling liquidity from the markets. They now face the cold hard reality (three years into the Keynesian nightmare) that their uber debt expansion experiment is a great failure and are now willing to throw anything at the wall to see what sticks (after it has hit the proverbial fan).

Hurdles, It Is All About Low Hurdles (And Short Squeezes)

Most long time readers know that I basically crawl into a shell at earnings season till AAPL reports. I'm a trend dude, and I like the major indexes (obviously SPX and the E-mini) avoiding the individual equity action. It is not that I can't trade stocks (I sometimes do), it is that I prefer to focus or specialize on the broader markets.


Earnings season used to be a joyful time. Markets used to follow fairly predictable cycles, you know, the ones you learned in your economics textbooks years ago. Now post manipulation or post 2008 FASB/regulation elimination things have changed. Earnings are now a not so carefully correlated dance between the Fed, banks and government's wishes that represent the land of unicorns and fairy tales.


Pre-QE if a company cut guidance it was a big deal and the market reacted appropriately breaking out the big black paddle and taking it to the backside of price for said company. A good example of this is with Cummins today. In a non-QE environment there is no levity or trampoline effect that lifts all ships sinking or not.

Morning Charts 07/10/12 $SPX $ES

MFG, PFG what's the difference? Well, we'll see just how well they are connected up the ladder. We all know Don Corzine was made of teflon. Will the same non stick coating apply to the PFG executives? If you have no idea what I'm talking about, there was another client fund issue yesterday, this time it was only $220 million that went missing (just a billion short of the last incident - Oh, and JPM is in the background once again). PFG Is Now MFG(lobal) Part 2 As $220 Million In Segregated Client Money Has Just Vaporized

This morning I could not put it any better than this post from Zero Hedge, “SSDD. Europe has a late night conference, regurgitates stuff, gives no details, makes lots of promises, peripheral bonds tighten only to blow out, etc, etc, etc. Seen it all before. Unlike a week ago, Spanish bonds, when Spanish bonds ripped by 1%, this time we can barely muster a 25 bps move tighter, with the 10 year "down" to  6.82%. It was 6.25% a week ago. Expect the blow out as has been empirically proven time and again. Hint: there is no magic money tree nor is there a magic collateral tree.” Overnight Action: European Knee Jerk Fade

Is Silver About To Explode or Implode?

After reading South American Silver Plummets As Bolivia Announces It Will Nationalize One Of World's Largest Silver Deposits from Zero Hedge I decided I better follow up on my April 24th Silver post where I recommended you stay away from silver (then at $31) till upper green resistance was busted and had a backtest.

Let's get to it since it almost nut cuttin time -

/SI Monthly - These charts change very slowly, but offer a wealth of information on direction and long term support, resistance and trends. Here you can clearly see long term resistance (pink) and long term support (yellow) with some major s/r points sprinkled in. You can also see the green channel down from the $49 top that has dominated price since the reversal.

Morning Charts 07/06/12 $SPX $ES

Well, believe what you want from the NFP numbers. As most know now I firmly believe that any number coming from our fascist totalitarian government can be trusted as much as the information flow from China. The miss in the NFP number can be interpreted with only one item in mind, QE.

This along with the dreadful economic numbers posted over the past few months will allow the Fed some more wiggle room as we head towards that moment when the Fed will ease again one day, cause there is no other option to keep the banks alive. Forget the economy. Easing has nothing to do with the economy. It is all about keeping the banks alive and the markets elevated.

I am not sure if they will ease before the election or not, but I think the odds are good they will have to. There are roughly 5 months to the election. The Government is slated to run out of money again this summer. The EU is in shambles. Current market levels do not necessarily show the stress necessary. I'm still looking to the 1170 area on the minis (let's say 1220 or below) before the Fed starts to add ink to the presses.

Morning Sharts 07/5/12 $SPX $ES

Nope, that was intentional. Charts may be replaced by Sharts. If you do not know what a shart is, ask below and I'll give some assistance. Why sharts instead of charts? Because that's what charting  has been reduced to. The charts reflect the market levels which really resemble a really messy fart. Sorry, I had to go there. I can also relate this terminology to our presidency and many other facets of our governance as well.


Quick note, an actual bright spot on US sentiment and that the sheeple had had enough of potus. At the parade yesterday in the small very liberal town in the Midwest I am in, one section of the marching freak show had a BO banner and a big sign that said vote democrat. They were booed wildly all the way up the street. I smiled. It was hilarious and greatly satisfying to see potus to get railed publicly on turf that he should dominate. 

Morning charts 06/21/12 $SPX $ES

Something is missing? I'm not sure what it is, but the markets reactions to the news yesterday is too muted. I can't quite put my usually reliable finger on it though. Zero Hedge even reads a bit more gloomy than normal this morning. Something is just not right. Like team manipulation implemented some sort of new diversion tactic and has us all looking in the wrong direction. I can't explain it, sorry I may be rambling, but something just does not feel right to me this morning.

Minis 4hr - The nearly completed and consolidating rising blue wedge.

Morning Charts 06/20/12 $SPX $ES

Do you ever feel like you live in one of those lesser carnivals that travels the country and sets up in a shady part of town? You know, the low end circus where everything is ridiculously expensive, the food sucks, the rides are dirty and dilapidated, the workers are all zombies and every game you play is designed to rip you off. The reason I ask is that is how I feel about this country and how we are being governed. Somewhere between a bunch of fraud driven side show ripoffs and a used car dealer is where our government sits. This country is fast becoming a side show and is no longer the sparkling and glorious main event.

The whole global financial system has become nothing but a game of chance. Hell, they even rigged that in their own favor. Know what's funny? They are going to even lose at their own game. Skimming off the top and not dipping into your own stash is something that even the less savvy drug dealers know not to do, but not the greedy ass hopium peddlers. They got so high on their own shit they lost all control.