Hurdles, It Is All About Low Hurdles (And Short Squeezes)

Most long time readers know that I basically crawl into a shell at earnings season till AAPL reports. I'm a trend dude, and I like the major indexes (obviously SPX and the E-mini) avoiding the individual equity action. It is not that I can't trade stocks (I sometimes do), it is that I prefer to focus or specialize on the broader markets.


Earnings season used to be a joyful time. Markets used to follow fairly predictable cycles, you know, the ones you learned in your economics textbooks years ago. Now post manipulation or post 2008 FASB/regulation elimination things have changed. Earnings are now a not so carefully correlated dance between the Fed, banks and government's wishes that represent the land of unicorns and fairy tales.


Pre-QE if a company cut guidance it was a big deal and the market reacted appropriately breaking out the big black paddle and taking it to the backside of price for said company. A good example of this is with Cummins today. In a non-QE environment there is no levity or trampoline effect that lifts all ships sinking or not.

Morning Charts 07/10/12 $SPX $ES

MFG, PFG what's the difference? Well, we'll see just how well they are connected up the ladder. We all know Don Corzine was made of teflon. Will the same non stick coating apply to the PFG executives? If you have no idea what I'm talking about, there was another client fund issue yesterday, this time it was only $220 million that went missing (just a billion short of the last incident - Oh, and JPM is in the background once again). PFG Is Now MFG(lobal) Part 2 As $220 Million In Segregated Client Money Has Just Vaporized

This morning I could not put it any better than this post from Zero Hedge, “SSDD. Europe has a late night conference, regurgitates stuff, gives no details, makes lots of promises, peripheral bonds tighten only to blow out, etc, etc, etc. Seen it all before. Unlike a week ago, Spanish bonds, when Spanish bonds ripped by 1%, this time we can barely muster a 25 bps move tighter, with the 10 year "down" to  6.82%. It was 6.25% a week ago. Expect the blow out as has been empirically proven time and again. Hint: there is no magic money tree nor is there a magic collateral tree.” Overnight Action: European Knee Jerk Fade

Afternoon Delight 03/12/12 - #UNDERSTAND #Anonymous

The below video - ANONYMOUS - REVOLUTION 2012 - *NEW *- What are we capable of? 2.0 - YouTube (h/t KD) really hit home with STB. The reason I want you to watch this is to understand Anonymous. Who are these really bad out of control geeks that hack stuff, release sensitive information and cause all of this commotion? That was the impression I was delivered by the MSM till I began using my freedom and the internet to learn and understand their mission and purpose. Then I came to the conclusion of the raw beauty of anonymous.

We are all part of anonymous. Each person fights or challenges the system in their own unique way. It is a raw American principle that is rising again. A simple vote at the polls to replace a corrupt/owned/special interest serving politician makes you part of Anonymous. My posts here make me a part. Your speaking to your neighbors about the financial crisis, GMO's, foreclosure fraud or any sharing of information make you a contributing member. Realize it or not, anytime you share information that addresses a threat you perceive or a political act you don't like you become part of Anonymous.

Afternoon Delight 02/13/12 - LMAO A "Budget" Proposal

Collateral? HA! Remember a few months back when someone brought up the insanely stupid idea of using collateral to back a loan. HA! Try introducing any sort of sound principals to the global debt game at this juncture and watch it collapse. Heck, at the current rate all the Greek collateral will be in ashes at best. This system functions best on fantasy and fiat. Well, guess what Finland just threw out there to throw the proverbial wrench in the tragicomedy that is the Greek bailout crisis? Is Greek Side Deal With Finland On Bailout Collateral About To Kill Greek Rescue Again? | ZeroHedge

Let's get into the US funding (some call it a budget) and economic issues in some detail shall we - Happy days are here again!

Your president is failing you again all in the name of keeping the peace and pacifying the entitlement state in order to improve his reelection bid all at the expense of our future. I guess it is never to late to solve a problem, so kick it on down the road. "President Obama made a pledge to cut the deficit in half by the end of his first term. Instead it exceeded a trillion dollars for four straight years." Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis: Obama Proposes Massive Tax Hikes, Still Comes Up With $1.33 Trillion Deficit; Obama's "Race to the Bottom" Education Proposal; Dysfunctional Congress

Morning Market Summary and Charts 01/24/12 #SPX

Isn't this nice to wake up to : Guest Post: EU Finance Ministers Push Through ESM Treaty in Fishy Fly-by-Night Move | ZeroHedge

"RED ALERT TO EVERYBODY INTERESTED IN THE ESM: THERE IS NO CURRENT VERSION OF THE ESM TREATY AVAILABLE!!!

Europe's most important treaty on the European Stability Mechanism (ESM), which will lead the EU into a financial dictatorship, has been pushed through by EU finance ministers late Monday evening.

But the latest version of the ESM cannot be found on English and German EU websites. A link on consilium EU only leads to a 'file not found' message and the German EU website "Europa von A - Z" does not mention the ESM at all. This reminds one of the secrecy around the Federal Reserve Act, that was pushed through in 1912. Is the EU Commission now playing the same fishy game 100 years later?

Media reports from last midnight only said that the ESM treaty was agreed on by EU finance ministers and mentioned January 30 as the date when the treaty will be officially signed."

Of course the markets do not care about such things as liberty and freedom, those are purely secondary items to the big grab and perpetual printing. This will most likely be another banksta/elite/central planning favored treaty that further en debts the sheeple to serve the system (dent slaves) that favors the richest of the rich and their henchmen.

Afternoon Delight 01/18/12 - Levitation

For those looking to know exactly what's going on with the market please see my morning post from today. It is as comprehensive as you will find anywhere. We're nearing a major top. To all the bears out there, as I have preached from the beginning of the year, patience is required.

Following the Fed is the only plan and like a scratched record (for those of you old enough to know what one of those is) I keep repeating the FOMC Meeting Chart. Price today (for whatever reason) tagged the upper resistance diagonal and has met the price objective I thought would be "it". Price actually touched the side of my target circle I drew a few weeks back.

I have no idea what is driving the markets up at this point other than IMF or ECB lending and the hopes that the Greek default will come off without a hitch. I do know that something is not right. One of the theories is (in true bubble fashion) is that the funds rapidly leaving the EU are flowing into our stock market. On the other hand mutual funds are having a net outflow. Could it be unannounced stealth QE? The Fed did say they would use all "tools" at their disposal. Could it be the promise of more QE announced at the FOMC meeting next month? Who knows?

Afternoon Delight 09/20/110, SPX, NFLX

OK, the news since 6:00 last night has been nothing but dreadful. Most all of it was covered in the comments section today. The DOW had absolutely no reason being up over 100 points other than on hopes of easing (and a little HFT spice).

Not gonna rehash the market's whacky day. Bottom line is price reversed at the April 2010 top forming a pretty double top with nice divergence - a classic and powerful turn signal. Now, the fed tomorrow can blow all of this up, but at this time it appears that TA has predicted the "sell the news" event STB and commenters were proposing earlier in the comments.

Hope you liked the updated 1m /es futures charts today. They really allow us to track support and resistance levels nicely.

SPX 30m - Pretty double top with divergences. That 13/34 ain't working so hot in this consolidation phase. Not sure anything is other than TA at this point which has missed a few news driven turns as well. So, follow the news LOL.

Sunday Evening Post

OK, here is the deal with the comments being closed on Friday's post - in order to avoid late spam (after the fact, many days after a post is up, some less desirable individuals will sneak in and post unscrupulous links that I/we do not desire), I have the comments set to "close" after 48 hours. I set that a bit tight and have moved that to three days to accommodate the weekend post.

I should be around a bit tonight as I update some charts ( I have done a bunch already) and check the futures.

SPX and the FOMC Meeting chart -

Morning post (in Exile) 09/09/11

How bout that stealth debt ceiling increase last night? Holy shit. Welcome to the 15 trillion level and 100% debt to GDP - the end is near folks. I do believe they could fix this problem very easily, but it would cost us our military might. You just cut the defense budget in half and poof there will be plenty of money. Sorry - not willing to do that. Would much rather starve than be the small dog on this big rock.

Hell, even if they did that they would then expand the entitlement system till the system failed again. It is all so stupid. We got a bunch of lazy mofos/parasites that have been living off the host for too long. OK, HS science class - what happens when parasites overwhelm and wear out their welcome on their host? Host dies. that is where we are as a nation. 

Whutz In The Newz? (And A Bright Idea)

OK - INTC beats handily as markets set new highs. Intel posts sharply higher profit, tops views from Marketwatch. Looks like the earnings bar may be set low enough to allow the Fed and PPT to take a break for a week or two, let their fat fingered interns take a much needed break to heal the blisters on their thumbs and finally let some much needed irrational investors enter the market. Just wait till the banks knock the cover off of the ball as I expect a zero interest arbitrage, cash rich, non lending, equity pumped institutions should do.

The games our government plays to show a recovery when there is not one just don't seem to stop. Mish has Measuring the effect of stimulus: If you don't like the results, change the yardstick - "It would have been a lot easier on Obama if he simply made up numbers of jobs created without disclosing the methodology. Someone might have believed him. This Mickey Mouse manipulation in plain sight of inquiring minds just makes the administration look foolish." We are playing kick the can down the road and pull demand forward (with a sprinkling of Monopoly money and some BLS manipulation), you can't win at either game. You'll have to pay the band eventually. Sadly the band is not the Blues Brothers and we can't just fork over a case of PBR. Caught between a rock and a hard place they are, praying on their knees that if the good Lord will just let this bubble reflate one more time and make all of this bad mess go away they swear they will never let it happen again.

This one may seem a little off base but indulge me. naked capitalism has - Monsanto GM Corn Linked to Organ Damage in Animals. I am a pretty big believer that GM foods will be the "next big thing" once all this mess is over in about 10 years. You see, they are fucking with mother nature and might just put the royal fucking on our food supply. First, screwing with the genetic code of stuff and feeding it to us is not a good thing. You should check to see if what you are eating is GMO or not. Second, MON is one of the companies that I will be buying at the next low, because it is quite possible they will own a patent and get royalties on every food source grown on the planet. I'm not kidding. If you grow soybeans and the farmer next to you grows MON soybeans and they cross pollinate then the soybeans you plant  next year from the seeds have MON genetic code in them, you lose. You just stole their product and will pay royalties. Uh, yes, this is a real and not fictional problem. They own the code. Hell, they tried to corner and get the genetic code patent on pigs not to long ago - if they had won and you owned a pig - any pig anywhere - you were SOL. Their patent, thatnks for taking care of their pig. Not kidding again. Some great youtube vids on this stuff. MON is a bad, bad, bad company IMO.

THE RECESSION ON MAIN STREET CONTINUES from The Pragmatic capitalist hits a home run. "Unfortunately, the frustrations are likely to grow on Main Street for Wall Street isn’t a place that lives in the same reality as the rest of us.  Wall Street is a world based on expectations and as long as investors remain depressed and corporations continue to outperform these low estimates the likelihood is for a continued rise in stock prices.  Unfortunately, a recovery that doesn’t involve Main Street is destined to fail sooner or later." I could not have said it better myself. Mish also has Small Business Trends Suggest No Recovery On Horizon. You see, this manufactured rally is taking the SPX to the top and everyone else is getting the shaft. For this reason I will begin to track the $WLSH to see if the trickle up failure theory works from here. The market should start to rot at the bottom first. so $WLSH and then $RUT should begin to lag and not recover to the highs set by the big boys. Let's test that theory, shall we (that may have been a moment of sheer enlightenment).

Washington's Blog has If Government Won't Break Up the Giant Banks, Let's Do It Ourselves friggin brilliant! I aspire to be the news hound and avid reader that WB is. His here, here, and here links just blow me away. We all know that we are going to eventually have to take the bull by the horns if we want any control over our destiny, otherwise we become further entrenched in the bought and paid for, corrupt, manipulated, over lobbied, special interest driven, socialist state we have become. Give this one a read, take a few action items away with you and figure out your plan for doing your part to get our nation back. 

Zero Hedge has Amherst Securities Estimates Nearly Half A Trillion Cumulative Losses At Fannie And Freddie which is not really all that surprising is it. The lender of last resort that has played hoover sucking up every overvalued RE asset on the planet has a small $500B problem and its growing. "If Laurie is correct, not only will numerous additional episodes of housing-focused Quantitative Easing be needed, but such a deterioration, once it is acknowledged by the auditors who obviously have no interest in indicating how bad the situation is, would have significant political repercussions which would reverberate from the FHA all the way to the White House. Another implication is that the shadow inventory is likely to continue remaining unsold so as not to blow the bottom out of the supply side in the market, likely confirming that banks will continue to pretend the vast majority of real estate assets on their balance sheets are unimpaired when in actuality they deserve a haircut of 20%,30% or more." Marked to market is the great ghost haunting the government and they will do whatever it takes to keep it in the closet for as long as possible. 

From The Big Picture - How bankers think - 

Have a great evening.