Sunday Guest Post - Incarnate and the 13/34, RUT, TNA, TZA

STB has entrusted a guest post to Incadamus for the first time - Let's hope this works out. STB 3.0 is slated to allow used generated content. Let's look at this as a trial run.

Welcome to Incarnate's world!

I have been wondering what timeframe I should use for my 401k.  I can only buy or sell at whatever the market closes at, like many others.  Also, there are those that would like to not babysit the market and come up with a good strategy to enter/exit trades.

So I thought to myself, hmm.. let’s try the 60 minute 13/34 EMA cross and see what would have happened from 1/1 – 9/9 of this year (damn charts kept moving so I picked that day as my cutoff for no particular reason).

I had two main questions:

1.       Is the decay on the leveraged ETFs really that bad??  Will I lose money if I buy and hang on?

2.       Is the 60m chart really the answer? 

As many on here know, I trade the 15m 13/34 EMA and have recently even switched to the 10m to try to capitalize even more gains.  I have had huge success for both even faced with the occasional whipsaw.  My original plan was to track a 15 minute chart back to the first of the year, but guess what?  Stockcharts.com does not hold the information back that far.  I think it was 30 days for the 15 minute chart and 20 for the 10 minute chart.  Also I came to learn that you can only add so many annotations to a chart and cannot add more than six total charts on one page, thus the two charts for each quarter.

I will say this about the prices on the stockcharts..  I estimated where it crossed as I did not have the time (trust me it took long enough as it was) to open a single day chart and see exactly where it would cross.  I got the spotting tool (crosshairs) to see where it crossed.  It is not exact, but very close.

Open Weekend Post 09/23-25/11

Don't forget to vote in the new poll =====>

Incarnate may deliver some special guest material for this weekend on the 13/34.

Quite the week.

Please take a look at the FX Chartapalooza Copper, Silver, Gold, Dollar, Oil, AUD, EUR, USD, JPY, CHF 

Just what type of precipice is the market sitting on at this support? See those pink rectangles? It likes to complete the run to 950 in these situations.

Monthly SPX -

A little Ron Paul debate answers for you - listen and pay attention.



Have a great weekend.

GL and GB.

Morning Post 09/23/11, SPX

Let's do a post for the indexes and keep the comments here today. the last post was a bit large to manage, but it is very important loaded with some great data.

SPX Daily - 1120 is KEY. Not much else needs to be said. At lower end of most recent range. If that goes so does everything else.

Afternoon Delight 09/22/11

Don't forget to vote in the new poll to the right  ========>

Nothing good is happening right now. As STB has speculated "they" are in trouble and their hands are tied till they can get some room with the next debt ceiling vote and get the budget issues straightened out (like...who needs a budget anyway as they approach 900 consecutive days without one).

As I was speculating back in June (when STB called for July to have the potential to be one of the worst months ever - It topped July 7th) financial blackmail is happening via market levels as "they" will tank the market to force congress into a more accommodating debt ceiling raise. This is all political.

I love it when the stars align with my prognostications.

Morning Post 09/22/11, SPX, DOW, RUT, NASDAQ, USB

New poll question to the right ===>

Do I really need to rehash the disappointment in the lack of QE (hopium), all the bank downgrades, Greece and the rest of the PIIGS, employment, China, commodities, and the lot? Let's not waste out time and enjoy the head and shoulders set ups that are the hot topic this morning. Let me show you what everyone will be looking at. Time to start thinking flash crash.


NOTE - separate posts are coming for the likes of gold, copper, oil, dollar and such.

/es - Minis SPX - Target 1031 (1040 has been STB's target since the 1370 top.)

Afternoon Delight 09/21/11, SPX, DOW, BAC, JPM, GS, MS

No need to rehash a QE that will deliver $1b a day or more in bunches and work the 30yr to control rates. It was disappointing and the market reacted as such (after a bit of digestion). STB thinks the Fed is holding back for bigger events to come and had to deliver something.

Let's hit the news quickly. Not sure how long I have been telling you to focus on the EU liquidity situation, but it has been a while now. Call this The (ZH) downgrade edition

Morning Post 09/21/11, SPX

F Day, as in FOMC Fed announcement. Let's hope the F does not stand for anything else as in Fing the people of this country even further than they have already been F'd. Around 2:15 the fireworks start.

Shanky nailed the call last Friday warning those that wanted to short over the weekend at what looked like a beautiful set up. You can not short mere days before a FOMC announcement. Today is the day we get clarity. Now will be the time we'll be able to invest with at least a bit more confidence in a sustained trend (say the next week which is about as sustained as anything gets in this market).

What do the readers of STB think the Fed will do today? Will the Fed ease was the question. (Thanks for participating in the poll.)

Yes - 10 (12%)
No  - 33 (42%)
Does it really matter - 34 (44%)

Shanky thinks the Fed can't ease till the debt ceiling issues are cleared up. This moves the November meeting to a higher probability. This has been my call since the spring and I'm sticking with it. Where STB's language has changed a bit is now the Fed can move from the "ability" to ease to the "promise" to ease at anytime. A year ago all it took was a promise in August to ramp the markets for free (or without any easing) till the November announcement.

Afternoon Delight 09/20/110, SPX, NFLX

OK, the news since 6:00 last night has been nothing but dreadful. Most all of it was covered in the comments section today. The DOW had absolutely no reason being up over 100 points other than on hopes of easing (and a little HFT spice).

Not gonna rehash the market's whacky day. Bottom line is price reversed at the April 2010 top forming a pretty double top with nice divergence - a classic and powerful turn signal. Now, the fed tomorrow can blow all of this up, but at this time it appears that TA has predicted the "sell the news" event STB and commenters were proposing earlier in the comments.

Hope you liked the updated 1m /es futures charts today. They really allow us to track support and resistance levels nicely.

SPX 30m - Pretty double top with divergences. That 13/34 ain't working so hot in this consolidation phase. Not sure anything is other than TA at this point which has missed a few news driven turns as well. So, follow the news LOL.

Morning Post 09/20/11, SPX, AAPL

Well, Looks like my warnings Friday about the market 's reaction prior to the FOMC data tomorrow (it was dangerous to short even though Friday 's close was a very tempting set up) was spot on. How can you short into the Fed with their constant risk on positioning and eternal promise of QE? It is insanity.

All eyes everywhere. The EU is in deep shit. No denying that. The biggest news was not the S&P downgrade of Italy and the Euro. Nor was it China's backstabbing of the EU. It was Siemens dumping their French bank and depositing funds directly with the ECB. After all of that one would likely conclude easily a 250 point down DOW day - nope.

If any of you understand this welfare video, please explain it to me. I swipe my EBT. Yes, America is reduced to this, free junk food. Hey, whatever makes the system work and supports corporations - it's allll goooood.

Afternoon Delight 09/19/11, SPX, AAPL

The surprise of the day -

From Zero Hedge - The Corporate Bank Run Has Started: Siemens Pulls €500 Million From A French Bank, Redeposits Direct With ECB 

"The implications of this are quite stunning, as it means that even European companies now refuse to work directly with their own banks, and somehow the ECB has become a direct lender/cash holder of only resort to private non-financial institutions!"

And the chart that shows the truth behind reality - 1m Index Comparison Chart - The financials did not do so hot today. Oh, and that would be the Fed's favorite pump buddy (the RUT) falling hard right behind)

Sunday Evening Post

OK, here is the deal with the comments being closed on Friday's post - in order to avoid late spam (after the fact, many days after a post is up, some less desirable individuals will sneak in and post unscrupulous links that I/we do not desire), I have the comments set to "close" after 48 hours. I set that a bit tight and have moved that to three days to accommodate the weekend post.

I should be around a bit tonight as I update some charts ( I have done a bunch already) and check the futures.

SPX and the FOMC Meeting chart -

Open Weekend Post

You know the drill - Share the love and the knowledge.

STB had a great week on blogger - so good that we're gonna stay here for a while. Apparently you all like this place quite a bit. I do as well. Blogger does not support some of the stuff I need, but it is better in other ways.

Welcome to all the lurkers that came out this week in record numbers (another plus for blogger). you all did great with the links and maket info.

Make sure you voice your opinion in the new poll to the right, but you need to read this first - Forget Operation Twist: Rosenberg Says Bernanke Will Shock Everyone With What Is About To Come | ZeroHedge. And of course the euro version of the super bailout ensuring every investor all is well - It's A Bird, It's A Plane, No It's SUPEREFSF! | ZeroHedge 

You see - Hakuna Matata - no worries mate!

Afternoon Delight - SPX

Ramp me up Scottie!

60m chart is not quite there but where it could turn. That said, the daily chart has plenty of room to run. Without a whipsaw 30m should get a MACD and TRIX bear cross in the morning. Based on the daily position this would offer no more than a corrective, but in these volatile markets (the 15m charts were the best signal for the last 4 turns) you can't trust anything. Given the jobs report and Philly Fed report this morning basically noting what an economic disaster area this nation is, nothing matters other than news (does not even have to be factual - just a rumor will do) from the euro zone at this time.

SPX 30m -

STB Morning Post 09/15/11 SPX

Not much to say this morning without rehashing the obvious, Europe in in deep trouble, America is in deep trouble and the financial system supporting it all is in even worse trouble. AS STB began to point to a few months back around the first Debt Ceiling debate in July, I believe the financial masters of the universe are finally seeing the light and may actually be tired of throwing good (well what's left of good) money after bad just to save the banks.

STB speculated that until the US debt ceiling is raised significantly and the Fed enters QE land again the euro zone would be on its own. Well, they have proven that without stealth funding from sugar daddy Bernanke they are capable of .... nothing. They can't fix the issues alone. China or the Swiss pop in for a EUR stick save every now and then, but bottom line is the EU is screwed. No, this is not Germany's fault. the former Wiemar state is proving that at least one country on this planet may have actually learned from its mistakes in the past and is not willing to repeat them.

Afternoon Delight (Evening Post) SPX, TYP

Weak effort at an AD. Will get back to full fledged AD's next week. The comment stream was getting a bit intense below. Less to scroll thru here.

SPX 60m w/ 13/34 for discussion. Or you can talk about anything you like.

EMERGENCY POST 09/08/11

This is an emergency post since either host is down or I have been hacked again. 

More to come later.

Wow - got to figure my way around blogger again - Obviously i have a lot of other stuff to do this AM figuring out what's up with the new blog so this will be brief. Do me a favor and leave a comment so I know you are here.

Jobs were worse than expected. Futures dipped and immediately recovered.

1m lower VWAP got abused but was retaken in the next minute. 1m200ma 1191. VWAP 1190. Upper VWAP band 1196 - Lower 1184. About 7:45 minis broke back below the VWAP. I would expect it to stay there for the rest of the day.

Yesterday STB gave the 15m 13/34 as a sell - looks like it will work. This was a TA sell and not a 13/34 cross. This is possibly only a scalp or corrective move before more strength so be careful trading it.

Morning Post, SPX, S&P 500, E-mini

Happy tax day! Please donate generously! Sadly your refund may not be in the form of cash. Wouldn't it be nice if we could pay them with IOU's. You better enjoy this one cause next year is really gonna suck (well, if you still have a job and are actually making any money)..

Jobless jumps, but thank goodness only another 424 thousand lost their jobs. Man, it could be a lot worse. This is great news. you know that at this rate by the end of the year averaging this same number only a few million more will be out of work. CNBC, if you are listening, as soon as Santeli was done speaking after the number was announced I turned your crap show off.


Earnings Calendar - GOOG after the close. BAC and GE before the open tomorrow

Economic Calendar - Jobs, worse than expected and knocked the minis down 3 to 1202.5. Huge day with many announcements including Philly Fed at 10, Natgas at 10:30 and housing market index at 1.

Pivot Points - Know 'em.

Well, you know what I think.Can they continue to pull rabbits out of the hat? The minis are set for their standard gap down open with the 30m working off being oversold. The minis and most indexes took out their upper resistance lines for the bull market corrective yesterday. You rarely hear anyone bitch about a market going up, but if they don't let this thing breathe soon, you might hear a little uproar. I guess they really don't give a shit. They have proven that they have the ability to take every bubble to the extremes and they are doing the same here. All hail the mighty bonus! To hell with the country, I need a third house in the Hamptons.

Not sure I can add anything to the post from the close yesterday, so if you want to see a chart or two, scroll down. If something should happen I'll be screaming and posting.

I'll add my 30m SPX. I bark about the 30m minis and the 30m SPX quite a bit. This is my main trading chart. SSO up and SDS down. I'll be waiting on the MACD to cross. I like the black TL at 83 as a target if it gets thru the red support line.The key is to remember to buy at the bottoms! Gotta play it both ways.

As a disclaimer, nothing is fool proof. Do your own homework. Always use stops and have a set trading plan. This system works for me, but things change and time frames and signals don't always work (see the daily chart LOL). I'll place buy and sell lines on this chart when they hit, but they are not guaranteed in any way.


Dollar - got a pop overnight. but 30m is about to roll over. Should have more weakness here.
Natgas - Report at 10:30 today. Have your fingers on the trigger. Is the pop over? Was this just a pause before further weakness? It has been range bound for over a week now.
Oil - Might be rebounding. With all the talk about Israel and Iran teeing it up sometime soon I would not expect any weakness.
Gold - Should remain range bound leaning to more weakness
EUR/USD -  oversold on the 60m, but you never know. One of the PIIGS could puke up a lung any minute.

GL!

I Think You Have To Get Ready For A Turn

I'm just saying, you know how stupid this sounds, like the market could actually turn. LMAO. With that thought in mind I present the following. 

CPC is getting near the extremes that brought the last big sell off. It is not there yet and we may need a little pop to get us there, but it is in the potential reversal zone. Last time it was down here we got a major move.

 Daily SPX - OK, price is above the daily BB. It is just under resistance. The red wedge is ending. The BB is pinching price into support. The BB may be vertical at this point. The BB width is very narrow indicating volatility. It has been overbought for an extended period.

 SPX weekly - I have been bringing you this chart with targets since October. I have cautioned that this rally will be over when the RSI crosses that red support line. With RSI finally over 80 one would think that would be enough. I will be truly amazed if it crosses the green target zone which contains the 200ma at 1224, the gap, the 61.8% retracement at 1230 and C=A at 1214. In my opinion this last push that got the market thru the bear market upper trendline is the blow off top suckers rally.

I'm not saying go short the market. I'm saying this should be a major turning point if things were "normal". I will continue to play my SDS and SSO up and down on the 30m S Sto crosses on SPX. They can ramp this SOB to the moon for all I care, but if this technical intersection on the daily chart does not produce a reversal I'll be amazed (yes, even more than I already am). GL!

Dollar Disaster? Gold/SPX Movement?

Tough call on the dollar. Ranking in my top three of the most manipulated things in the universe (with Gold and Oil) who the heck knows whats going on? Maybe it is our turn to fall. EUR has had its time in the sun being devalued to prop up the EU, now is it our turn? As I have asked before, did they create a false strength in the dollar to set up room to fall to counteract a potentially weakening or topping market all along helping the EU out of a hole? Is is possible that the EUR could really strengthen? Yeah, I know, when PIIGS fly maybe. Thus the conundrum, how much can the dollar weaken and against what? Hmmmm....how bout an unpegged Yuan? The dollars correlation with the market has been an off and on love affair recently, however if they should begin to hook up again, the bulls may retain momo. On the other hand, the market's recent strength combined with the dollar's climb leaves one to wonder, should the both be due for a fall? This is some really screwy stuff.

Daily chart - completes a 50% retracement and gap fill then takes out support line (yellow) off of the lows. Those indicators do not look good either. 79.12 is the 38% fib,  78.17 is the 50% fib and 77.23 is the 61.8% fib.

Weekly chart - this appears that the fall is just getting cranked up.

Now - how will gold react to the dollar's potential plunge. Most are thinking that gold remains in a sideways trend for some time remaining range bound for some time before the next break out (I think it can retrace to 950 before further strength and that future valuation issues and other stuff will make gold very sketchy in the future - you must own the physical if you are going to own it at all). Here is a chart with the SPX, Gold and the dollar all in one place. It appears that recently the correlation between the dollar with SPX and gold had been disturbed somewhat, but if it should regain the trend, that would be bullish for both the market and gold if the dollar should crumble.

Morning Post, SPX, S&P 500

Good morning! After the AA miss the minis sank as low as 1188 and are now in rally mode recovering back to 1191 at this point 1.5 points down. Guess where the 30m indicators are? Yup, trending up off of the bottom. Amazing how they manufacture small gap down open that will fill creating momo for another low volume bleed up. Even the 60m indicators are coming off the floor this am. Someone please send a hearty congrats to Ben and the gang for another fine job. Looks like another great short setup has been averted.

Earnings Calendar - Yes, it is that time of year again. INTC after the close and JPM before the open tomorrow. Should make for an interesting day.

Economic Calendar - Quiet today but tomorrow and Thursday get really busy.

Pivot Points - Know 'em.

SPX Daily - With the minis at the upper corrective resistance line and in the ending stages of a rising wedge and the dailys at the upper end of a narrowing BB and the VIX with it's head in the sand and the the SPX at the end of what I am calling a rising wedge and that the market is overbought and that there are significant divergences on the daily chart that one would think that any day now this thing would have to puke up a lung or two. Not so fast my friend. The bots, the Fed and the Treasury have things well under control. It is close, should be very close to some sort of solid corrective. Given the trouble with the PIIGS and our own states issues this may be the top. There are so many issues (as documented here nightly) that can not be overcome that it is only a matter of time before some real trouble hits.

Dollar - I think the corrective may be over. After closing the gap and completing a 50% retracement of the original fall, it has cracked a support line I have, the dailys are falling and the weeklys have topped.This combined with the position of the EUR should say it is our turn to get weak. With the isssues with the PIIGS I would not trust the charts as currency speculation at this time is very dangerous. I am not sure if the on/off correlation with the SPX is worth looking at any more, but if the dollar should weaken, that bodes well for the markets (ya think they know a fall is coming and have set the dollar up to support a falling market?
OIL - Still has some room to run. Dailys overbought but the weeklys are not quite there just yet. It is at resistance and could top here, but there is also room up to 95.
Natgas - Might be forming a base or will continue what I think is a corrective before further weakness.
Gold - Weekly indicators say more strength. I think any more troubles with Greece and you may see a good pop to previous highs. It is out the top of it's weekly BB with RSI pulling off of 70, so maybe some weakness here should be expected.

EUR/USD - the weekly and daily indicators combiled with a breakout of the channel down and a completed 61.8% retracement of the climb from 08 to 09 should say more upside to come. I don't believe it. I'm not sure the EUR is still around 2 years from now.
EUR/JPY - basing as well with some strength.

GL out there. If something happens, I'll post a chart ASAP.