Afternoon Delight 10/20/11, SPX, JPM, GS, MS, BAC

Quickie tonight - News has not changed or gotten any more interesting - Actually quite dizzying from the go/no go EU crowd.

VIC Issues Bank Of America As "Terminal Short" Thesis | ZeroHedge

Following Short Selling And CDS Ban, Europe Now Seeks To Ban Free Speech | ZeroHedge

JPMorgan’s Legal Bills Push Industry Tally of Bad Mortgages to $69 Billion - Bloomberg

US Economy: US 'Misery Index' Rises to Highest Since 1983 - CNBC

US Consumer Hopium Drops To February 2009 Levels | ZeroHedge

Morning Post 10/13/11, SPX, JPM

I guess we're just gonna have to wait on the STB "external event" (or exogenous as the more literate call it) to come. For those that do not know, one of STB's long standing calls (over two years) is that to bring this market down it will take an "event" that is beyond the control of the Fed, US Government or any other entrenched power that exists. An event that no one will be able to run or hide from.

So far mass animal deaths, volcanoes, earthquakes, tsunamis, floods and a smattering of other global disasters have been leading up to whatever this "event" may be. I believe the event will have to be financially related. It will have to hit "them" at their core. You see when the banks can pull off shit like JPM's earnings this morning, you are left shaking your head an knowing when this does end it will not be pretty.

Afternoon Delight 09/21/11, SPX, DOW, BAC, JPM, GS, MS

No need to rehash a QE that will deliver $1b a day or more in bunches and work the 30yr to control rates. It was disappointing and the market reacted as such (after a bit of digestion). STB thinks the Fed is holding back for bigger events to come and had to deliver something.

Let's hit the news quickly. Not sure how long I have been telling you to focus on the EU liquidity situation, but it has been a while now. Call this The (ZH) downgrade edition

Morning Post

C and IBM report Monday. Here is next weeks calendar. INTC did well. Looks like revenues are gonna suck again this quarter. I have to ask, at what point in time do missed revenues (for what might be 8 consecutive quarters now) catch up with businesses in a market where credit is tight and consumption is low?


JPM beats and cautions. No up in dividend (who expected that?). Cautious words about consumer credit were not received well.

It is always nice to rally to new highs on a day when employment numbers were a slight disappointment.

CPI was ho hum slightly better than expected this am. Futures are down 4.5 right now.

SPX 30m - Chart shows a nice channel over the past month (call it a GSEC). Looks to me like a 1,2 - 1,2 move and should be tired. The reason I'm bringing in the 30m chart is that the divergences are very noteable and should be taken into consideration.

SPX 60m - Check out the rotation of the Stochs from top to bottom to top. Was that the pullback? Whoopie! Is it time to embed again? I don't think so. You see the 30m channel from above in green. Is this a measured move? However you want to measure the move off of the November low and then translate it to this move, looks like 1201 to me if it is. Nice divergences here as well. What I see as a throwover E of the triangle is still there. I do not think the triangle target will be met on the pullback unlesws we get some sort of serious disappointment in the earnings arena soon. Not sure if the apex of the triangle next week will deliver anything either. I still stick with the call for some sort of pull back, but not what I was looking for earlier this week.

OK, all that said, throw everything you know about TA and EWT and fundamentals out the window and think QE. QE is driving everything and thus the markets WILL remain irrational longer than we can remain solvent. I am still calling for some sort of retracement to crack this trend up soon. I was right yesterday when I said I was wrong about expecting a pullback and we set new highs (anyone else tired of moving fibs up every other day or so?).I'm not gonna be swinging anything this weekend with C and IBM Monday. I want a clear trend set (or at least the start of one) and some sort of correction before I jump into anything here.

GL out there and have a great weekend.