Morning Post

MCD and KO do well. Ignore them, cause all eyes are on the PIIGS and who else might be invited to play Default Dominoes.

I'm sticking that it all comes down to Greece, the other PIIGS and the EU. Nothing else really matters anymore. The focus is there. The only question is does the thief come in the middle of the night or during trading hours. How much of it is priced in?

The rumors and news surrounding Greece and the PIIGS are insane. Just how much of this is in the control of GS and not Trichet or any other fraudulent government money man.

What was up with the secretive banker meeting in Australia while the G7 was meeting on the other side of the world?

Earnings calendar -

Economic calendar -

E-mini 60m - Channeling down (Sky blue lines) after breaking the Green support line that held the market up since June. Reversing near the 38% retracement (yellow line at 1037) of the 862 low. The dailys as expected are pretty oversold and this mornings pop of 9.5 points is not surprising. Any good news will cause a thrust these days and the fact that things in Greece have calmed down somewhat is reason for the dip buyers to get active again.

SPX - I still contend it is fighting off the upper bear market TL. It tagged it again yesterday and reversed. Can it hold is yet to be seen. The daily indicators are struggling to gain ground and remain oversold. The RSI5 divergence tried to give way yesterday, but may be coming home to roost today based on the futures. 1085 is the max if we even get close to that. 1110 is the 68% retracement at this time and the 50 ma on the daily chart. It is only a matter of time before the collapse. As I mentioned earlier, will we wake up to it one morning or will it happen during trading hours.

Dollar - Is it having an overthrow of a wedge? It would be backtesting the upper TL right now if it is. Pretty overbought, but this will not mean anything if a flight to safety occurs. I also think there is a possibility that an ABC has completed, but looking at things politically I believe the rush to safety on an EU breakdown sends the dollar to 89. Then it crashes with everyone else.
Gold - Getting a nice pop this morning. It is oversold and might have a little upside left. A pop to the 1085 - 1090 range may be in order. There is upper channel resistance there.
Oil - Oversold and bouncing off of lower channel support. If this support cracks 65 and 59 would be likely stopping points. I called $55 months ago. That TL and target may have moved.
Natgas - Revesding off of the upper channel line, but at support. Indicators are mixed. So, /NG is in a very precarious spot. Charts are telling me there is confusion among the ng troops, that is usually not a good thing.
EUR/JPY and /USD recovered some yesterday and have been crushed over the past month. As correlated to the dollar, they look to have completed ABC correctives, but given the PIIGS situation, I have to expect worse. If this is a 5 wave move we are in 3 down and should be expecting a 3 of 3 soon.

GL out there.

Morning Post

It all depends on the PIIGS and whether some sort of default is being or has been priced into the markets as to how fast we fall from here. Greece appears to be toast and I'm not sure anyone is going to step up to the plate. If they save Greece, then who's next. they can't save them all. Someone will not have a chair when the music stops playing. It is only a matter of time before some massive meltdown of what I think will be the EU first, then over the next year or two we live in denial as regions begin to tumble one by one. I am becoming more afraid that war may be inevitable and the Mayan calendar may be deserving some merit. More on Greece here.

Economic calendar - Not much I see other than auctions will Wednesday

Earnings calendar - KO and PHM tomorrow. Still a full slate out there, but most of the notables have passed.

SPX daily - Where are we? We are somewhere in 3 of 1 I think.  This may possibly be 2 of 3 of 1. That was a nice pop late Friday that got back 38% of the fall from 1105. There is no question the daily chart remains oversold. I warned of the divergence on RSI 5 on Friday. That is the only thing that looks good on this chart right now. I did my best job a placing the bear market top TL on this chart cause I think it should have some bearing on the markets actions. (Looking at the chart it appears that Stockcharts has inconveniently moves the TL -they do that if you are not careful - It is close - I'll move it back later - just one of the many issues I have with them.)

SPX 60m - The last big pop was led by some huge divergences in RSI, MACD and ROC. Not this most recent one. You know I like to trade the daily indicators. The 60m Can be misleading at times. It appears a channel has formed. On this chart I give the possibility of SPX being in 2 of 1, but that is remote.

I'm expecting choppy to up trading for a few days with a high degree of risk for large downside moves. If we are in 3 of 1 then the third wave has not hit and that will be a ripper. Weekly RSI is at the 50 line just under the P2 support line. SPAX50 is about to hit 100 which has been an extreme oversold reversal area. The bear market top TL was pierced, but held. 960 to 940 is my preliminary target for the bottom of 1. The word of caution is that this puppy can reverse at any moment and very hard. What happens with the PIIGS is key. Let's see what the bulls have left in them. they may be at a point where they have to focus on saving just the banks and not the whole market.

Gold - At the 38% retracement and lower LT channel support line with the daily indicators oversold. 1020 is the next support level. I would not be surprised to see a pop from here to 1085. I expect further weakness as it may follow SPX or the inverse to the dollar (which may continue its rise sooner than later).
Dollar - Big gap at 81.27 up to the 50% retracement at 81.90. Might be in a over throw of a rising wedge and it is overbought.
Oil - Cracked the lower channel line on big volume. Daily it is oversold with everything else. Looking for consolidation or a slight pop.
Natgas - About the only thing that is moving up. Might be a bear flag, but the indicators look good. that could all change with supply though. Indicators say it can go higher.
EUR/JPY - Just got hammered last week. Very oversold.
EUR/USD - In the retracement zone and oversold.

GL!

The Wedge And The Target

On January 5th I first posted the chart with the rising wedge and a proposed target 1046.37. I think I got a few laughs if I am not mistaken. I continued to post the wedge and followed it thru the remaining climb and overthrow E touch and now present it again today. Sometimes these things stick out like a soar thumb and you can see 'em coming from a mile away. Thus, I always look for potential formations as early as possible in any move. It does not always work out, but when you get into a "what could it do" scenario and put the TL's on paper and then see it play out, it can be a beautiful thing. Now, lets see if this target can hold.

January 5th Post with potential target 1046.37.

Here is the chart today after adjusting the proposed target to an actual measurement 1056.38. It initially stopped at the horizontal target line, but continued to the measurement point this morning. Is that the end of 1? I'd also like to point out that it has completed a backtest of the upper TL of the initial formation down and may have completed a falling A-E wedge (better seen on INDU). RSI 5 may be setting a divergence on the daily chart. The fall may not stop here, but hey....(oh, and yes, I did call for "one more" higher high at the end of the wedge as well.) Just a little horn tooting. Feeling frisky today. Sorry. 

Morning Post

The reaction to the jobs report may be a big deal, but fear of sovereign default is what is rocking the markets from Gold to the indexes.Employment report down again. 9.7% unemployment. Revision was massive. Fewer jobs and unemployment rate drops? That is NOT good at all. They are dropping off the rolls left and right cause no jobs are out there. Not sure if the BIG revision will get much attention (You know, since the government decided that they have miscalculated unemployment by almost 2 MILLION). ZH provides a deeper look into unemployment here. NSA U-6 is now at a record 18%.

I need to update a bunch of charts and get some good information out to you all, so look for a lot of updates thru the weekend.

Economic Calendar - Consumer credit at 3:00 and Timmahh speaks again today.

E-mini 60m -Still in the blue channel down. I'll point out the lower yellow TL that was tagged this am and the market reversed off of it. the Yellow horizontal line it the 38% retracement. The futures hit a low of 1050.5 this am and have rebounded massively to 1063 at this time (it was at 1055 since I started writing here - now back to 1057). 1013 is the next major support level. The backtest of the bear market upper TL is somewhere near 1020 at this time.That may be the spot that ends 1. I would not be surprised to see a backtest of the broken green support line near 1085. That may end 2. Then 3 down with the authority to crash back thru the upper bear market TL.

SPX 60m - Is this 2 of 1? Are we still in 3? Is this 4? Was that 5? LOL, bottom line is the indicators and market are oversold. the weekly RSI crossed my dreaded P3 tl and even got under 50 briefly yesterday. Not often I post a count, but here is a shot at it. Although the market is tearing north at this time the market is skating on thin ice. At this point any gains can and will be taken back very quickly from here on out. Sustained gains will be few and far between.  I would like to point out the possibility of a H&S (see red neckline) worth about 35 points. If it should form a right shoulder and reverse keep an eye on that to get a target.I forgot to mention the backtest of the black dashed TL that was th top TL of the original fall.

Gold - I was calling 1066 as the support. It fell hard and stopped at 1059 yesterday, so I will take that. AH it tanked again with the futures to 1051, but had found new life and has rallied back 14 to 1064. Not positive if it will find resistance at this level or not. It will find resistance at 1077 for sure.
Oil - If you go back a few posts you'll find an oil chart. It fell right to the lower channel line and stopped like a bug on a windshield at 72.42. If it cracks the channel,  69 then 65 are the support levels. I do not think it sets any more higher highs, but that is up to the manipulators of black gold to determine.
Natgas - At upper channel resistance with bullish indicators on the daily chart. Looks to be in a mini channel up. Might be a corrective move.
Dollar - Took out the 38% retracement at 80.09 and is sitting on it right now. Might have also experienced a throwover of a rising wedge. Daily indicators overbought. If it was an ABC corrective that may have been it cause C is close to A and the 38% retracement has been hit. I still like 89 as the target.
EUR/USD - experiencing a throwunder of a falling wedge and has gone beyond a 50% retracement of the whole correction. EUR/JPY is way oversold.

Somehow the fear left the market this morning in a hurry. It looks like the currency corrections are overdue and I believe they will lead the markets back up for a period of time. As I mentioned, the market is on thin ice and can literally collapse at any time. All it takes is for one sovereign default and kaboom. I am still riding some shorts that I took most the profit on yesterday late. Not sure if I play long or not.

Geaux Colts - LOL - don't care who wins, I just want a good game. Saturday night at Daytona baby! NASCAR is back! Gotta love it.

Two more registered followers and I crack triple digits. Anyone care to sign up and make that happen?

Have a good weekend.

Morning Post

Another 480,000 lost. When do you think this "norm" will finally catch up with us? Wait till you see the Explaining The Government's 1.8 Million Job Overestimation In Pictures. Did you catch that headline - 1.8 MILLION OVERESTIMATION! I tell you day after day that they are full of shit and you can't trust a damn thing out of them. So we're gonna have a "slight" adjustment that is going to ADD ONE MILLION people previously unaccounted for to the jobless. Does anyone really know the truth? It will implode and it will not be pretty.

Economic calendar - nothing big

Earnings Calendar - Jobs reports and a bunch of other fictitious numbers will be released today.

SPX Daily - Bears came back as expected yesterday. Jobs number sank the futures. The question is are we in 3 of 1 (the major leg down) or is this still the B leg of the corrective. The thought that this could be one last B down of P2 is fading fast. GS and the boys would have to pull their 1,000th rabbit out of the hat and I believe they are out of rabbits. All we can do it wait and see at this point. Lets look to see if it gets to 1087 support. I'm in cash.






Gold - Met the upper TL and reversed. Daily indicators are a little out of whack but are more bullish than bearish. 1066 is massive support. I believe the 1000 level holds for a long time.
Oil - Pulled back yesterday on the numbers. I think this is a corrective and another buying opp will be soon.
Natgas - trending down and it will continue.
Dollar - Popping into an overbought situation. It will need a correction sooner than later.

I'm getting worried. My gut bearometer is spiking. Really not comfortable with the global situation. The dominoes start to fall soon I'm afraid.We'll see this in 3 of 1 of 1 soon and then the fun begins.

GL out there.

Morning Post

National signing day! OK, I am a college football fan of massive proportions. You should be as well. Good luck to your team today. The SEC dominates again with 4 of the top 5 classes. More on this after the bell.

PFE totally got it backwards. Make the revenues and miss the number is not the way to do it these days. What in the world does revenue have to do with anything? I hate tend busters.

Earnings calendar - Most of the market movers are thru now. CSCO after the bell today.

Economic calendar - EIA Petroleum report at 10:30. Timmaah speaks somewhere today I think. ADP is out and we have fewer jobs. The BLS fictional report comes out tomorrow.

Minis are down slightly. May have completed A wave of the correction. Bumped it's head on an upper TL yesterday late. I'm speculating on a slight pullback before more strength. Possibly 1080 area or at least a sideways consolidation before moving on up.

SPX daily - All the 10-60m charts are ready to turn south or are topping as the daily is just really now getting geared up for a move north. Thus, I think we are in the B wave of the 2nd wave corrective. This will provide a risky short play (cause it could just consolidate here and move sideways) before further strength. I have a max low of 1087 and max high in the 1115 to 1120 range. Lots of green circles on that chart below. Be patient. The orange dashed line is a possible path.

Oil - As prognosticated, the rise is on. Petrol report has to say at 10:30. 60m headed south, so I may wait to add when that turns.
Dollar - After trending down for 3 days, something happened at 4:00 this morning that caused it to reverse up pretty hard. Sorry, do not know what that was at this time. Must be Greece.
Natgas - I updated the UNG section last night. It does not look good. Should turn south soon. 
Gold - At a upper downtrend line that should cause some resistance up, but the dailys indicate more strength after this pullback. Possible breakout setup? Hmmm...

GL out there. Down slightly then up. How much up is the big question. I'd hate to see the EWTres eat another top call.

Morning Post

Good morning. Futures are up a smidge (2.50 at this time). They have pulled back 4 points off of the 1092 high. The minis and SPX are dancing to a different band right now. The minis have broken their major top tl and have broken back above the market support line gong back to June. This should have been a brick wall, but was not. Let's see what happens in the 1104 area if it can get there.

Earnings calendar - AFL goes after hrs today (that would be a hometown ex-employer of yours truly) with MET and TSO. In the am we have PFE, SGP and TWX as a few bigger names roll thru.

Economic calendar - Timmaaaah gets grilled at 10:00 for the next three days. Pending home sales at 10:00 as well.

SPX daily has almost confirmed a st trend change. ADX and a couple others are not at the party yet, but the main playas are there and it should not be long till it gets going. The base at the 61.8% retracement f the run from 1028 is another positive development. Cracking 1087 resistance in the last few minutes yesterday opened the door to 1103. I got a 1/2 position yesterday in SSO.

The chart I share this morning is the Dollar Triangle. Your thoughts would be appreciated. Remember, you saw it here first (well, maybe not, but I have not seen it anywhere else). Looks a lot like P1 doesn't it? This is part of the reason I am looking for an ABC and not a 5 wave move here. My target calls for an over throw of the triangle sometime next year.Of course it is possible that the 40ma throws it back down here and it just runs to new lows. Remember I am pretty biased towards a very weak dollar.

Dollar - topping nt on the daily indicators. It needs a breather. Support at 78.
Gold - Approaching an upper TL that might slow it down some, but I think it is in an ABC wave 2 corrective that might throw it up to the 1150 to 1175 range. Dailys are oversold and turning.
Natgas -  Channeling down but may be oversold somewhat and might pop based on the daily MACD and possible S Sto bull cross.
ERU/JPY - Should reverse here for a pop. Really oversold.
EUR/USD - Looks like a throw under of a falling wedge in oversold conditions stopping just above a 50% retracement. If it does continue to fall 1.3755 should be the max.
Oil - At support and oversold. I'd look at playing a reversal here. USO or OIL might be worth looking into. Do your homework and use stops. Inventory data comes at 4:30 later today.

I'm looking for more upside today and thru the rest of the week. Maybe 1 is complete (if it was a 1). The dollar looks like it is going to confirm the move and remain in concert with the indexes. I'm long 1/2 SSO and looking to add to it and possibly some TNA for the short pop.

Have a good one!

Morning Post

Good morning. I hope you had a good weekend. Getting this week cranked up early with the futures up over 6 points on the minis. After Fridays sell off and given the overbought conditions, the buyers had to show up sooner or later. Question is, how long will they hang around? Friday's dramatic reversal was a sign of things to come as I believe you have to begin viewing the market as having more downside potential/risk than upside as the tide has most likely turned.

Earnings calendar -Tomorrow is a bigger day as we get into the energy sector.

Economic calendar - Mfg index and construction spending today along with a treasury auction (3 and 6mo)

SPX daily - Remember, the market does not "have to" do anything, looks can be deceiving and beauty is only skin deep. SPX has completed a 61.8% retracement of the rise off of 1028. S Sto is embedding, RSI is at 33.3, The gap on MACD is huge (8pts) and the hist has not turned, ADX is doing it's best Letterman impersonation showing a huge gap, and other indicators are showing similar characteristics. The lower BB is getting abused again. At this time I believe a correction is overdue and downside should be limited simply because of oversold conditions and some divergences on shorter time frames. 1055 is my max downside at this time and if it turns I'm looking at 1101 as the first target and then the gap at 1115. I do not see it moving over the 1131 level at all, but with this market you never know.

Gold - 1066 level has all kinds of support. I do not think this is the time to jump in even though it is pretty oversold.
Dollar - Continues strengthening. Over $5 move in DXY since 11/23 (7%). It is getting overbought but might have a little room to run yet.
Oil -  Sitting on support and the 23.6% retracement (I'll give you charts on all these tomorrow) and it is oversold. This one may warrant some buying attention at this level.
Natgas - Broke TL and support and is channeling down with a short series of lower lows and lower highs. 4.67 is the 38% retracement. It is at 5.13 now.
EUR/JPY -  124.37 is the next support point (and that is a weak one). When it took out 126 that should have been it. Channeling south. Support has now become resistance.
EUR/USD - 139.17 below the 140 Mendoza line. 138 to 135 is the 50 to 61% retracement zone. 136 is where C=A is this is a corrective. If it is a major wave we're in a 3 south.

GL out there!

Morning Post

Minis up 5 and climbing. Boy does CNBS have the cheerleaders out this am touting growth and prosperity. sounds good if you are a moron. Remember they are salesmen, not prophets. What's that saying about lipstick on a pig (all except Becky of course)? Our first morning with Benjamin back at the helm for another four years looks to be getting off to a prosperous start. I guess the markets take to the idea of furthering the reflation trade.

E-mini 60m - That green support line going back to June was unexpectedly tested again. That was the missing 5th wave I am suspecting. I was a day early jumping into the small long position, but that is fine. Got out with small gain and now ready to reload again. Let's see what happens at the 50% line in the sky blue channel and then at the top of it as well. The yellow wedge target is just outside the top of the blue channel near 1123. Resistance at 1103, 1112 and then up around 1127 should be your stopping points and then the retracements are 38% 1101, 50% 1109 and 62% 1117. I believe a base has been built and I'm not looking down (yet).

SPX 60m - Now you know why I like the daily indicators to trade off of. Take a peek at the divergences here and see how ineffective they have been to this point. Sure, they are screaming a turn is coming but not the tradeable point of the market. This is a good chart to see the fibs, s/r and the trend.









Gold - Is about to bottom out and reverse I think. Within $20 of the 38% retracement and double converging channel support. Might be time to buy some more tungsten gold soon. $1066 is the 38% retracement. When that eventually cracks, 1020 is the next stopping point.
Oil - As I showed in the chart yesterday am, oil is at lower channel support completing a 23.6 retracement at $71.60. Daily S Sto bull cross and divergence in RSI may mean the bottom is in.
Dollar - Sister Christian is "Motorin" right on up the charts in what I am calling the 3 of C of the ABC correction.
Natgas - support has cracked and a lower low has been set. It may be channeling down and might be time for a small pop after giving up over a dollar (down 15%) in the past few weeks.
EUR/USD - still beow 1.40 and looks like it will get even weaker if the dollar is gonna continue Motorin.
EUR/JPY - Finally took out the LT support level of 126.71. 124.24 is the next level. It may be channeling down.

GL out there. GDP is strong like bull! (like bullshit if you ask me). Keep on playing their game, cause you can't beat 'em. I'm looking for a corrective to begin soon. My daily chart has not given a buy signal yet. the MACD hist reversal yesterday really pissed me off. That and the S Sto cross looked good, but as I noted RSI and a few other factors were not there. They will be soon I believe.

Have a great weekend.

Morning Post

I took nothing away from the populist cheer leading effort last night. Nothing new or surprising. More stuff today on the earnings calendar. Jobless report was another stunner IMO. While we are not losing jobs at an increasing rate anymore, we're still dumping over 400k per reporting period. Think about that number for a minute. Remember the first time the number climbed above 300k? That was bad, now 400k+ is just ho hum. Don't worry, the market will accept this as good news most likely.

E-mini 60m - It is either a channel or an unformed wedge. Looks to me like the minis have broken a downtrend after tagging supports at 1081 and meeting the lower market support line (green). The question is whether this is an ABC corrective or something larger. Form and the indicators will tell us that, so be patient while the market climbs here. 1111 and 1127 are the two resistance levels I see on the minis. Watch that possible upper channel line.

SPX Daily - Back inside the lower BB after tagging the red support line and making a nice retracement of the move off of 1028. 1114 is the 50ma, support and the 50% retracement sit near there as well. If we have completed a 5 and this is a corrective that would be a likely area for top. 1131 is another good spot that may be attainable. With the bull cross on S Sto, MACD hist reversing, CCI divergence and RSI possibly getting in the game there is a chance for stronger upside from these oversold levels. The 60m chart had some nice divergences coming into yesterday. I will note that ADX is not participating yet.

Gold Daily - This chart goes back to the '08 low of 688. IMO that is a nice channel up (gray). the green channel is diving into the lower gray support line, the 38% retracement (yellow line) and the sky blue resistance/support line. This is massive support IMO coming soon. If that cracks it is all over but the crying. If it holds the possibility of a pop back to 1227 is pretty good. Daily indicators say oversold and support will hold. Weekly indicators say more pain to come. 1082 is pretty good support here. 1066 to 1068 should be it near term.



Dollar - Movin on up. Weekly chart says it can run some more, but it is getting NT toppy. My target remains 89 to complete what I think is an ABC corrective before much further weakness. The EWT people see a super strong 5 wave move here. It is possible if there is a flight to safety (LOL). I say currency devaluation is the only game in town. While I have speculated the dollar with a 4 handle I think $68 is looking better. No, I'm not kidding.Now, that may be a few years off tough. We'll have to see.

Oil - Continues to roll over from overbought conditions. After nearly three weeks of falling is it time to stop? I think so. Take a look at this daily chart. Support at the lower yellow channel TL and the indicators looking to turn. S Sto bull cross. MACD hist turning up and RSI with a small divergence. If this lower channel line should crack, the 38% retracement lies at 65, so that would be the max NT.





Natgas - Cracked the support line I have been speaking of for a few weeks and took out a support level as well. 38% retracement is $4.67. The 50% support at 4.24 looks the best right now as there is a support level and gap there as well. EIA NATGAS report at 10:30 today.

Enough for now. GL out there. I'm log SSO and looking to add some QID and TNA at appropriate spots.

Morning Post

Roubini sees slow growth is the first thing that caught my attention reading thru the news this morning. Very busy day and the markets might not do much in waiting for Barry's state of the nation speech tonight. Following up on last night's post Chief TARP investigator to open two AIG probes. I'll tell them what they need to do with those probes if they need an idea.  

I have NO CLUE what happened to the formatting of this post. I'm tired of trying to get the gaps out (kind of looks like some of our SPX charts doesn't it?), so screw it. 


Earnings Calendar - A ton today, but MSFT and AMZN tomorrow might create the biggest buzz.


Economic Calendar - New Home Sales at 10:00, FOMC and Barry tonight lead a busy day. The Pertolium report at 10:30 may be interesting.

SPX daily - Indicators never confirmed the buy signal. The RSI hook turned into a flat and it still has room to go to bottom if it wants to. MACD HIST is still negative and trending down (although at a slower rate). S Sto is embedding. Looking for a divergence in CCI. Price is still playing just outside the lower BB indicating oversold conditions persist. Price seems to have found a home at the 50% retracement off of the 1030 low to high just above the red support line. 

 



SPX 60m - Great head fake here yesterday. Follow MACD hist to the turn and you will see the hour of reversal. CCI remains bottomed out. This stopped the RSI, MACD and S Sto advances in their tracks.

E - mini - What I think is a possible channel down here running into support from the green TL that has supported the market going back to July and traveling under the 50 to 62% retracement area (gray box).












Interesting day with all the news to come. FI holders better look out cause the FOMC language on rates will be newsworthy. I do not think they can raise rates here. You see they should have raised rates 3 years ago so they have worked themselves into a rough spot. they will have to raise rates sooner than later and with China being the first to do so, I think we will not be far behind. This will rock the markets when it happens.


I think we consolidate in a triangle here at support and make the 4th wave. I want to see how the indicators trend out before making any more prognostications. Upper limit is the 1115 area and the lower limit is  1082 my wave 5 target. I'll add the possibility that this is 5 of 3 and we still have 4 and 5 of 1 to come.



GL!

Morning Post

Good morning. If you have not contacted your representative (Senate - House) and told him/her not to vote for Ben I encourage you to. If you support Ben, then good for you.

Earnings calendar - Yahoo after hours today.

Economic calendar - The biggie is Consumer confidence at 10:00 looking for 53.5 up from 52.9. (I am not going to comment on the possibilities of revisions to these numbers.

I suggest that you read The Second Phase of the Global Economic Crisis is at our Doorstep.

E - mini daily - The minis have met my 1085 target and the lower green TL well ahead of schedule. The green TL also measures out well for the light gray triangle. The indicators here are bottoming, but they are not quite ready to give a buy signal yet. I'm gonna watch to see if the sky blue channel has some merit and the interaction with this support line. Next stop would be the backtest of the upper (sky blue) bear market top TL.

SPX daily - The indicators are close, but not there yet. So some more weakness is expected, but possibly not much. When it turns I'll prognosticate the pop. Right now I have 1131 as the max, but remember I have not called a top yet. RSI has a hook but is not horribly oversold. MACD has a lot of room till a turn and hist is not reversing yet. S Sto is in the bottoming zone but it can embed. CCI has turned and I would look for a possible divergence to price. ADX might be at a buy point.

SPX 60m - All indicators turning up with possible buy signals, but they can reverse and embed. This chart says the bears need to tread with caution. Retracement levels for a pop can be seen here. Watch those to ma's and the upper BB level as well.
















We might have a 5th wave left to complete which should get you to 1085. Not sure if the market goes into hibernation here with the vote for Ben just around the corner and the FOMC meeting tomorrow. If this is a 5 down and then we have the ABC corrective for 2 of 3 you can expect some choppy consolidation trading for the next week. Please remember to contact your representative on the Ben vote one way or the other at the conveniently provided links above.

GL!

Mowning Post (Elmer Fudd???)

Is momo changing? Did the green team lose the handle and now the red team is picking up the ball? So, are the recently experienced highs the already priced in respectable earnings season we are experiencing? Is the market telling us where we are going at this point? I guess the fear of some sort of REGULATION the market makers may realize the party is over. The pain will be great (especially for the banksters) as we corral the out of control bubble pumping financial industry. The good news is that this purging is necessary for a better future. FINALLY we may be facing the light and the healing may begin.

Mohammed El A of PIMPCO made some good points on CNBS this am about the coming wegulatory pewiod. I'm sowy I missed most of what he said, cause I was laughing so hard at the fact he sounds like Elmer Fudd. Like perfect. I'll find the vid later. He welly stwuggles with his awas. Capitwal wequiments. LOL - sorry. Needed a laugh this am.

UPDATE: As Pwomised. http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=1392894872&play=1 "We have embawekd now on a pewiod of incweased dewisking, taxing and wegulating banks." I'm not knocking the dude ethnically, just pointing out a similarity I found between him and fwunny cawtwoon chawacta I know. Don't get me wong, I think the dude is brilliant.

The earnings calendar is stoked again today. I have not looked into the numbers, but CNBS is pumping MCD, GE and GOOG as having done well on the earnings front yet the futures are down. This may be one of those moments where you learn that TA is for real. It has an uncanny ability to pwedict things. The topping chawts will not wun on fowevea. A cowection is a must as the market is waaaaaay ahead of its self. Is this the biggie? I'm not sure, if it is not this time it will be the next.

SPX daily - Awe the daily indicatows finally aligned with the staws for a significant move south. We got a good start yestewday. The biggest key to me is that RSI has finally taken out the 50 line that has been suppowt since eawly November. Now there is one more huwdle - the red lower suppowt line that has held up RSI since the low in Mawch. $NYMO is cwanking down and even the ADX gave a beaw cwoss. The daily indicatows have woom to wun south if they can. On the chawt you can see (green box) the wower BB and 50 ma support. 1131 shouwd now be resistance.

SPX 60m  - Bottoming but may embed. We are ovewsold on a ST basis. That can not be awgued. I like the 1053 number as the ultimate tawget for this fall. If it makes it thewe in a nice 5 wave pattern I may concede the top is in. This wegulation issue weally has the mawkets spooked I think. Maybe losing the Bwown election in MA shook the system so bad that WEAL change is finally coming. The other thing I would like to point out is that the wange of this top is neawly the same as the last range bound pewiod.

Dollar - about even with the close yesterday after a volatile drop and rally this am. Will the fall contiwue or was this just a small cowection to further highs? Wooks to me like it was a 4 and we will enter a 5 up soon to take the dollar to 78.80.
Oil - Continuing to fall. 9 days now and over $8 per bbl. There is TL/lowa channel support at $73.
Natgas - As mentioned, tentatively on a support line. Might have had a mini bweak out westewday. Indicators may be weversing mid-stream. I'd exercise caution hewu.
GOLD - bad day yesterday and may have more pain to come. If it cwacks support at 1073 wook out!
EUR/USD - Sitting on the 38% retracement of the climb off of the Apwil wows. If it bounces here look for an ABC.
EUR/JPY - At support, but wemembw I warned about a possible channel down. This is big support here.

Good wuck out thewu and have a gweat weekend!

Morning Post

So we all knew GS would knock the cover off of the ball. The earnings calendar is packed today. AXP reports after the bell. The (un)employment number was worse than expected and rocked the minis about 6 points.

So let's put the pieces together. Jobs suck, banks are not lending, consumer is not spending, business spending is down, but the markets is soaring. Simple, it is called an earnings trough. Market falls to rock bottom. Estimates are set at historically low levels. Companies beat the low bar estimates. The market rewards them. We're comping to '08 numbers still. This trend will end though. The economy will catch up to the earnings next quarter. Missing on revenues for how ever many consecutive quarters will catch up to these companies as well. The coffers are shrinking (definitely not growing).

SPX 30m - Will it move back to 1150 and become range bound or does it have other ideas.After nailing my pullback target, is this a corrective up before further weakness? A 38% retracement has been completed. Based on the lower low, the futures and the daily indicators I have to vote for further weakness. 1118 to 1115 would be a good spot to look for.

Dollar - going nuts with room to run up.
Oil - Pulling back, but still in bullish uptrend channel. Should have further weakness.
Gold - Should be headed south with support at the 1084 level.
Natgas - Pulling back with support at 5.36. Tentatively traveling up a support line. Be careful if it cracks.

10 yr - trending up but at resistance. Not sure how mcu more gas it has in the tank.
EUR/JPY - At a support area. I think this area will possibly break as there is the possibility of a developed channel now headed south.
EUR/USD - Tanking in responce to the dollar's strength. 1.38 to 1.34 is the 50 to 62% retracement area.

GL out there. It is a crap shoot. Juiced earnings but bad jobs numbers. Go figure.

Morning Post

Brown is in, let the games begin. In a historic vote, I do believe this will be CHANGE you can believe in. It is time for CHANGE the people are saying and hopefully this resonates thru the country during the next election. We need all those entrenched assholes out of Washington, starting with Pelosi and Frank.

Why does WB have to be on CNBS during one of the most important earnings mornings of the season? Do I need to hear about Kraft for 15 minutes? NOPE, tape it and put him on Youtube.

Well, guess what? SPX set a higher high yesterday. Whaddaya know? Another round of top callers fall by the wayside. Wait till just before interest rates start to climb. The free money tree will quit bearing fruit and so will the market. take the fertilizer away and it all dies from lack of nourishment. They will not be able to hold off till the consumer recovers. They can't afford it. This will be ugly.

SPX daily - Well, they whipsawed the hell out of that one. The key, which way does daily RSI go. Can it take out the top divergence line. I just do not think it will be able to. On the other hand the dashed purple support line that kicked it back up yesterday and the 50 line and the lower red support line are all in play as support. So do we remain choppy and trending up under the divergence? Do we move sideways between the TLs on RSI? Watch for a clear break. As a bear it bothers me that they are creating some room for a sizeable move up if that upper TL is taken out.

As for the price action. Toppy is all I can say. A large wedge with a wedge for a E touch throwover is a bear's dream (unless the PPT is involved and earnings are coming out that have been rigged for companies (esp financials that are insolvent) to beat handily courtesy of QE, accounting irregularities/changes, 0% interest rates and favorable legislation. A narrow channel up may have formed.

I still have to call for a pullback. I am getting more antsy about calling THE top. Everyone you let go by the wayside as a technician adds a little more caution to the next call. This one was the most tempting yet as the near perfect double top really makes me want to bite. BAC is out of the way and that one hurt the bulls. Now let's get by GS, GOOG and AAPL among others.

SPX 60m - Blue channel? Black TL? 1031 support. What stops it? Futures appear to be getting some momo. I have some dashed TL's at 1125 and 1115 for your enjoyment as well on some hypothetical TL's that may come into play.

GL out there.

Morning Post

Earnings calendar from - Briefing.com - notable today are C and IBM. Of course the market has moved up after C stinks up the joint. Citi's $7.6 bln loss meets Wall Street estimate from Marketwatch. Only in America can losing $7.6 bln be met with applause. This is a really screwed up place. That is good news folks. They MET expectations losing $7.6 BILLION! Reward them. Reward them with massive equity purchases.


Mas election is a really big deal. I am going to put my conspiracy tin foil hat on and speculate the front runner republican loses in a tight race, the dems to hold the seat and for a massive vote rigging case to come out of it.

Economic calendar - Barrons.com -

SPX daily chart - I am not gonna speculate for squat this week with the earnings on deck (unless we get on a good count). I don't like surprises. We all know the market looks super toppy and TA is suggesting a significant turn sooner or later. Sorry that is my style. Is the top in? Who the heck knows. EWI has called it again and maybe the third or fourth time is the charm. For their sake, I hope they are right. I don't think we are there yet, but we could be.

Big red candle on Friday breaking some support lines. I would normally be short at this point. I'll wait for form and the correction to get short if that is eventually the place to be. If there is a 3 down to com I want to be in on it. All the indicators here look pretty bad, but then again, they have been sort of range bound to overbought for quite some time. My best guess is pay attention to the lower fibs and support. I have been calling for the wedge pullback for a while and still stick to it. Yews, I am still looking for another higher high. GL!

Gold - headed down. Possibly in a 1 of 3 down. Ouch.
Oil - 84 to 77 is not good. Esp in one week. May be a bit oversold.
Natgas - Possible H&S playing out taking /NG to 5.20 as part of what looks like a 5 wave correction. this is possibly 3 of 3 here.
Dollar - I think the dollar is in a ABC corrective (contrary to the bigger bulls out there). My target is 89. Nice pop up over the weekend and a 1.10 move up since late last week Another dollar up should not be a problem at this time.
10 year treasury - Moving up pretty strong over the past week taking out some resistance. Should continue.

CPC Extremes

For your Sunday digestion. Pretty telling if you ask me. This week should be interesting. GL!

Morning Post

C and IBM report Monday. Here is next weeks calendar. INTC did well. Looks like revenues are gonna suck again this quarter. I have to ask, at what point in time do missed revenues (for what might be 8 consecutive quarters now) catch up with businesses in a market where credit is tight and consumption is low?


JPM beats and cautions. No up in dividend (who expected that?). Cautious words about consumer credit were not received well.

It is always nice to rally to new highs on a day when employment numbers were a slight disappointment.

CPI was ho hum slightly better than expected this am. Futures are down 4.5 right now.

SPX 30m - Chart shows a nice channel over the past month (call it a GSEC). Looks to me like a 1,2 - 1,2 move and should be tired. The reason I'm bringing in the 30m chart is that the divergences are very noteable and should be taken into consideration.

SPX 60m - Check out the rotation of the Stochs from top to bottom to top. Was that the pullback? Whoopie! Is it time to embed again? I don't think so. You see the 30m channel from above in green. Is this a measured move? However you want to measure the move off of the November low and then translate it to this move, looks like 1201 to me if it is. Nice divergences here as well. What I see as a throwover E of the triangle is still there. I do not think the triangle target will be met on the pullback unlesws we get some sort of serious disappointment in the earnings arena soon. Not sure if the apex of the triangle next week will deliver anything either. I still stick with the call for some sort of pull back, but not what I was looking for earlier this week.

OK, all that said, throw everything you know about TA and EWT and fundamentals out the window and think QE. QE is driving everything and thus the markets WILL remain irrational longer than we can remain solvent. I am still calling for some sort of retracement to crack this trend up soon. I was right yesterday when I said I was wrong about expecting a pullback and we set new highs (anyone else tired of moving fibs up every other day or so?).I'm not gonna be swinging anything this weekend with C and IBM Monday. I want a clear trend set (or at least the start of one) and some sort of correction before I jump into anything here.

GL out there and have a great weekend.

Morning Post

Overbought, wedging and rigged are the three best words that come to mind. Last night Zero Hedge posted this - The Fed Finger: More Observations On The ESH0 Incident - for those of you wondering why we got the whipsaw yesterday on no news - there you have it. Take a peek at how much cash it took to pull off that trade. The inner workings of this market are simply intriguing to say the least. The shenanigans are simply insane and no one in our government gives a shit (actually, I believe they are behind it, so they do give a shit - about them - not us).

I'm still calling for a near term reversal cause that's what the charts say will happen. SPX is trying to hold a lower TL off of the low yesterday am. It closed the gap from the open yesterday (amazing isn't it?). The muted reaction the the slightly worse than expected jobs numbers is no surprise (4 points down on the minis). 

INTC reports tonight with JPM tomorrow night (earnings calendar from Briefing.com). I would not recommend swinging shorts or longs thru the weekend (you do what you do, but that is just crazy IMO). I would speculate that there is a chance the report early if earnings are good so the market can get the ramp going into the weekend.

With Opex upon us, no guarantees can be made.


SPX Daily - It is wedging and overbought and it whipsawed into a continued overbought situation yesterday. It should go down. I am in cash after closing shorts yesterday at even. I also think my call will be wrong for more downside at this time - I just don;t see the PPT giving it any lead like I thought they would. 1080 would be the expected number. 1118 would suffice. 

I'm pretty pissed right now. This bullshit has to stop. They are killing us for the banks survival and bonus structure. I'll say this, they say they have to pay the bonuses to keep the talent. I say let them throw the "talent" onto the open market and see if they can find another job paying 60% of what they are earning now. It is bullshit. I'd call it hush money, not a bonus. You may get a spirited rant soon.

GL and have a great day. 


Let me add this - RUT should be topping very, very soon according to this chart. I said should be, not is. 61.8% retracement of the fall and the upper bear market TL. 

Can It Continue To Run?

I just don't see it topping here, not yet. I see all the counts and hear everyone. I am one of the few that have not called a top yet and for some reason can't bite here.

Daily SPX -Chart, don't fail me now! Pink boxes to black cycle lines. Peak in the center, fall, rise to higher high and then fall to cycle low. Volatility has left since what I am calling the last cycle low and so has volume. So, do we trend out one last time? I'm guessing we set a NT low with one last higher high (courtesy of everything Biderman mentioned in his last report) and then Cycle to the next low in march. I'm prognosticating that this next higher high will be the last and by the time you see another cycle line farther out on this chart the bottom of 1 of 3 will be it. Since I have also prognosticated that it would take something "external" to rip the market from the manipulators that means that something bad may have to happen between now and March.

Weekly SPX chart - The RSI is all I need to see. I'm waiting on that threndline to crack just the way it did when P1 ended. See that yellow box? RSI can run along way from here not to mention the divergence has been lost to price.

Monthly SPX - I see nothing here that says top either. RSI 5, ROC and S Sto maybe, but I do expect this chart to turn abruptly at some point in the near future. I like that red upper TL in this chart.

Call me a nut, but I just do not see it technically. I'll say it again, you all know I am a massive permabear and want it to turn as bad as the rest of you. I'm not all that keen on the 1214 I have been pointing to for some time, but I am thinking one more higher high before she lets go.

My thought on earnings. They are cyclical, but the analysts blew it this time. Normally we go thru what I call an earnings trough where everything bottoms and future estimates are set at easily attainable numbers. This is an old trick the BD's use to prop up markets and garner revenues. That worked well for a couple of quarters. Well, this may be the last quarter of attainable earnings. They may have overshot on some of the revised estimates from the green shoots they were smoking about a year ago. What recovery will be the question of the day. Lowered estimates are coming and that will not be received well by anyone. Why do you think insider selling has been so rampant for the past three months? They know what's coming, but the BD's want you in the game so the pump and dump can continue.


The blame game is already starting. When the house divides (and it will this election season), I'm guessing the government after realizing everything they have done was wrong, will meet gridlock. They will be afraid to do anything. The people will be in the streets sooner than later and this country will resemble some third world nation running a muck for about a year. Kent State part two? It is gonna be scary I think. Will someone (Geitner) get hung out to dry? I think so. I actually think it is possible that the O may not make it his whole term when all of the GS/Fed/Treasury/Banking fiasco finally all gets aired out and it will.

As for the economy, do you want me to rehash all of the problems we are facing (or how about the global economy)? A while ago I was ending posts with one simple word - konichiwa - cause we are the next Japan. If we ever do dig our way out of this hole, it won't be anytime soon. It will be a long cold winter.


Will we get a P3? I think so. Will we set new lows? I think so. Remember I have predicted at least two market closures on this next fall. I do not think we ever "capitulated" last time. I know you may think I am nuts for not looking to call a top here, but the market is all they have left between them and total collapse/anarchy. They have done everything they can to make it the only game in town if you wanted any returns. I believe Biderman. I believe they have manipulated a majority of the rally since April.

If I am wrong and the top is in, so be it. Maybe EWT gets it right this time (3rd or 4th shot at calling a top - I forget). I'm not long much at this time and what's left is all protected in various ways. I'm not liking the 1214 to 1230 area as much as a few weeks ago and may lower that number to 1170 to 1180. If that wedge does crack here, it targets to 851 which nails thee 61.8% retracement and support. Maybe that is a nice stopping pint for 1 of 3 (ouch!).

I'm really just gonna wait for that weekly RSI to cross the TL. That should do it.

Konichiwa!

GL out there.