When Is Enough Enough? E-minis SPX 500 Futures

You tell me when enough is enough. The latest unfathomable feat of the march to infinity and beyond happened on Friday after the bell I guess speculation (with some inside information) on the Greek bailout announcement. Of course the minis shot up a few extra points, but what they gapped thru is the insanity of it. For months I have been bringing you the minis and the wedge. The upper trendline has been the one constant the market has respected, until tonight. In the words of Moses, "Behold his power and respect his rules." (No caps cause I was referring to Helicopter Ben in the place of I Am).

Daily from the low - 

60m Drill down -

Even closer - note the gap thru the TL. That is one way of knowing you have a really solid TL in the right spot. So now futures price is above the bull run's top TL and in the green wedge heading further into the stratosphere. The reversal of all this will be horrendous.

I believe the 60m futures will still be overbought in the morning (see the TLs under the indicators above). The divergence on the daily RSI and overbought condition can not be ignored much longer. After the gap up in SPX to get it's 1200 glory, I am anticipating a fall of some degree. Let the 30m minis cycle to the top and that should be the proper time to enter shorts (they have a nasty way of setting up the 30m indicators to bottom in the am so be careful shorting till they top). The 30m SPX rupture (see my last post below) on Friday was possibly the single most abomination of the charts I have seen thus far on the run up.

One last chart - YEARLY SPX - 1209 looks to be a really important number on this chart.You need to note that the MACD is still in bear mode and although RSI is bouncing off the 50 line now I would not pay that any attention. The yearly RSI will have to hit the 25 line or worse before this ends. That is one super bearish candle in 2008. I expect the candle for this year to be red as well. Yes, that is a trendline and the lower BB near 300. The 50 ma is at 479. More in the am. GL!

Morning Post

Like sand thru the hourglass - as the market churns. There is no telling how long they can keep the charade up. As long as they have no regulation of any sort, a printing press and basically no accounting rules I think they will run it till they suck the last dollar out of the corpse that is the American taxpayer. Then it all goes bust. So, put the big moves of P3 in the back of you mind for a while. It will happen, you are just going to have to be patient.

Economic Calendar - Bernanke speaks at 11 this morning.

Earnings Calendar - There are a few good ones left. TGT after the bell.

Minis at 1112 resistance riding along the top channel resistance line. It all depends on what Helecopter Ben has to say today and where the GS HFT bots want to take us.

SPX daily - Getting overbought but not ready to turn just yet. Should be soon with the 30 and 60m setting massive divergences (thus I very rarely ever play a 60m indicator only daily for the turns). 50ma, upper BB resistance and the 61.8% retracement are flashing yellow warning turn soon. It really is that simple. You can't force the market to do anything. You have to be patient and let it come to you. When the S Sto gets it's bear cross on and the MACD hist turns that will be the time, but until then you are dreaming if you are short. If Uncle Benny decides he wants to squeeze the shorts some more, you know darn well he can do it. Tune in at 11:00. The Weeklys are moving up as well. Remember the dailys can embed up here. this is no normal market.

Gold - Still climbing and should continue. Lets see what happens at the 1142 level. I expect a little more than that.
Dollar - I think the climb is done for now. I'm torn between a possible run to 89 or the ABC corrective that I have been calling is completed and it is toast from here. Looking at the daily and weekly indicators I'd be leaning really short here. Again, tune in at 11:00.
Oil - Plenty of room to run and may double top or better.
EUR/USD - technically it is either bottoming at the 61.8% retracement and is due for a bounce or the indicators embed and the party goes on.
Natgas - Channeling down. &4.67 is the 38% retracement. Let's see if it stays in the channel when it gets to that number.

GL out there. I'm in cash till Ben speaks. I'm gonna try to get some more detailed posts out this week that may help.

Morning Post

The minis are entering their first round of resistance points in this area. The next block is around 1113. Minis also at the top of the corrective channel. 30 and 60m getting toppy but the dailys have plenty of room to run.

Earnings Calendar -  Cause you may want to see it.

Economic Calendar - Tomorrow is a busy day with employment and the EIA reports on Natgas and Petrol.

SPX daily - Pretty much just like the minis. 30 and 60m overbought. I'm viewing this move as more of the continuation of the breakout of the red dashed falling wedge. The BB 20ma is toast and the next stop will be the 50ma at 1108 which sits in the retracement zone (box) between 1097 and 1110. The upper BB is back on the chart finally and sits at 1136. The only caution point I see on this chart for the bulls is the RSI sitting at the 50 line. MACD hist has gone positive which means the market can now put in a top. I'll be watching the RSI 5 for preliminary topping signals.Friday I called for 1103 max upside. Let's see if that can hold.

I suggest you keep an eye on this as it falls for a possible reversal signal when it meets price. I was correct in last Fridays buy call and I'm still calling for some more upside. I will caution the longs to keep those stops in place and lift them with the market. This sucker can and will turn on a dime and when it does it can be severe.

More upside than most may be expected if the dollar has completed the ABC I have been calling and it is not in a 5 wave move up.





Gold - is on a tear (up 8.5% in the last week) and possibly has a valid breakout happening cutting thru the upper resistance line with authority. Will it backtest? 30 and 60m indicators have some strong divergences, but the dailys are just getting warmed up. Gold all depends on the dollar. 1135 to 1157 is the retracement zone for this correction (if it is one).
Dollar -The dollar is a tough call. Is it completing the ABC corrective leading to much further weakness now or does it have more steam left in the engine? I like the ABC as being completed, but I think it is going to double ZZ to the 89 area before the plummet. Either way it eventually gets crushed.
Oil - At near term resistance, but in the channel with room to climb.
Natgas - Channeling down and indicators look like more weakness is to be expected.
EUR/USD - Looks like a possible E throwunder near a 62% retracement. That would be a classic corrective completed and some strength should be expected.

GL out there. Nice to be back. I'm gonna be updating charts and posting the beat of what I find.

Morning Post

The reaction to the jobs report may be a big deal, but fear of sovereign default is what is rocking the markets from Gold to the indexes.Employment report down again. 9.7% unemployment. Revision was massive. Fewer jobs and unemployment rate drops? That is NOT good at all. They are dropping off the rolls left and right cause no jobs are out there. Not sure if the BIG revision will get much attention (You know, since the government decided that they have miscalculated unemployment by almost 2 MILLION). ZH provides a deeper look into unemployment here. NSA U-6 is now at a record 18%.

I need to update a bunch of charts and get some good information out to you all, so look for a lot of updates thru the weekend.

Economic Calendar - Consumer credit at 3:00 and Timmahh speaks again today.

E-mini 60m -Still in the blue channel down. I'll point out the lower yellow TL that was tagged this am and the market reversed off of it. the Yellow horizontal line it the 38% retracement. The futures hit a low of 1050.5 this am and have rebounded massively to 1063 at this time (it was at 1055 since I started writing here - now back to 1057). 1013 is the next major support level. The backtest of the bear market upper TL is somewhere near 1020 at this time.That may be the spot that ends 1. I would not be surprised to see a backtest of the broken green support line near 1085. That may end 2. Then 3 down with the authority to crash back thru the upper bear market TL.

SPX 60m - Is this 2 of 1? Are we still in 3? Is this 4? Was that 5? LOL, bottom line is the indicators and market are oversold. the weekly RSI crossed my dreaded P3 tl and even got under 50 briefly yesterday. Not often I post a count, but here is a shot at it. Although the market is tearing north at this time the market is skating on thin ice. At this point any gains can and will be taken back very quickly from here on out. Sustained gains will be few and far between.  I would like to point out the possibility of a H&S (see red neckline) worth about 35 points. If it should form a right shoulder and reverse keep an eye on that to get a target.I forgot to mention the backtest of the black dashed TL that was th top TL of the original fall.

Gold - I was calling 1066 as the support. It fell hard and stopped at 1059 yesterday, so I will take that. AH it tanked again with the futures to 1051, but had found new life and has rallied back 14 to 1064. Not positive if it will find resistance at this level or not. It will find resistance at 1077 for sure.
Oil - If you go back a few posts you'll find an oil chart. It fell right to the lower channel line and stopped like a bug on a windshield at 72.42. If it cracks the channel,  69 then 65 are the support levels. I do not think it sets any more higher highs, but that is up to the manipulators of black gold to determine.
Natgas - At upper channel resistance with bullish indicators on the daily chart. Looks to be in a mini channel up. Might be a corrective move.
Dollar - Took out the 38% retracement at 80.09 and is sitting on it right now. Might have also experienced a throwover of a rising wedge. Daily indicators overbought. If it was an ABC corrective that may have been it cause C is close to A and the 38% retracement has been hit. I still like 89 as the target.
EUR/USD - experiencing a throwunder of a falling wedge and has gone beyond a 50% retracement of the whole correction. EUR/JPY is way oversold.

Somehow the fear left the market this morning in a hurry. It looks like the currency corrections are overdue and I believe they will lead the markets back up for a period of time. As I mentioned, the market is on thin ice and can literally collapse at any time. All it takes is for one sovereign default and kaboom. I am still riding some shorts that I took most the profit on yesterday late. Not sure if I play long or not.

Geaux Colts - LOL - don't care who wins, I just want a good game. Saturday night at Daytona baby! NASCAR is back! Gotta love it.

Two more registered followers and I crack triple digits. Anyone care to sign up and make that happen?

Have a good weekend.

Look Into The Futures

OK, a minor explosion that will really piss off all those looking for a fall on Monday at the open. the minis (and everything else) seem to be going ape for some reason. Marketwatch reports, "Gold futures climbed by as much as $24 an ounce in electronic trade Monday morning in Asia to touch their strongest intraday level in more than a month, as a further weakness U.S. dollar and strong trade figures from China lured investors." For a deeper look into the China numbers Zero Hedge reports - China's 2009 Trade Surplus Falls A Record $100 Billion 


The e-minis are showing a classic throwover on a strong move to the 1148 area. You all know I have been pointing to 1214 SPX for some time, but now I am beginning to question if the 1350 pundits are right. To be honest, this market will go where they want it to. Looking at the possible count on the minis, this could be a 3 of 3, really. 


The Green wedge is experiencing throwover (or breakout). the yellow divergence line on RSI is toast and the new lower blue support line may have to burst before any further downside can be expected. This means that the divergence that everyone was looking for to set the top may have been a head fake. 

Looking at /YG gold futures breakout. It is quite clear. After putting in a good retracement and getting the gold 950 talk going good, the headfake may be on. this one may be worth watching. 

So they say the dollar is getting crushed. Let's take a look. I would say so. Now, will the correlation return?

And is oil reacting? Yeah, I would say the C store owners will be all giddy about being able to raise the price of petrol on Monday morning. 

And what about NATGAS? Wonder if that cold snap is affecting supply (more than the shutting down of the production)? Ooops, that would be a 10% price plummet since Friday's high with a nice gap down over the weekend. Go figure. 

See ya in the am. Now get some sleep.

Morning Post

The cheerleaders are out in force. Face it, we lost 80k+ jobs and the government has done NOTHING to solve the jobs problem. They HAVE saved the markets and the banksters FOR NOW and that is it.


The minis took the jobs news fairly well and only tanked about 6 points initially, then a slight corrective and then the continuation. Is this the beginning of the larger correction I have been looking for?

Whats going on inside the minis? Why are all of the calls for tops going on? Here is one good example of many that are all converging right now. The P2 wedge (blue) is running into the 50 to 62% retracement area (yellow rectangle). Price is chasing up the lower P2 bull market TL and is now hitting resistance at the 50% retracement.

Index Comparison Chart daily - Is the TRAN the new market leader? First to top here and now leading down with NDX and COMPQ beginning to follow.

SPX Daily - Face it, every time the SPXA50 crosses 400 a NT top is guaranteed according to this chart. Basec on all the divergences, it is almost time to pop this bubble. I can see why everyone is getting toppy and I agree wholeheartedly, but I have faith in Timmay, Ben and the administration to keep the hot air in the markets at this time. the China rates news yesterday was a big factor. I had speculated they would be first to act on the inflationary front (maybe cause their citizens actually pose some sort of a threat to their government unlike we do). Based on the recent buying volume, although weak, the corresponding candles say the bulls are toast for now. We're close, but not there yet. 

GL and have a great weekend.

E-mini Possible channel

Possible channel down. Lower blue trendline is the P2 lower support line. Solid red horizontal line is the 385 retracement of the C move up from the 866 low. the dashed yellow line is the support line from the lows occurring during the C leg up.