Morning Post, SPX, S&P 500, E-mini

Happy tax day! Please donate generously! Sadly your refund may not be in the form of cash. Wouldn't it be nice if we could pay them with IOU's. You better enjoy this one cause next year is really gonna suck (well, if you still have a job and are actually making any money)..

Jobless jumps, but thank goodness only another 424 thousand lost their jobs. Man, it could be a lot worse. This is great news. you know that at this rate by the end of the year averaging this same number only a few million more will be out of work. CNBC, if you are listening, as soon as Santeli was done speaking after the number was announced I turned your crap show off.


Earnings Calendar - GOOG after the close. BAC and GE before the open tomorrow

Economic Calendar - Jobs, worse than expected and knocked the minis down 3 to 1202.5. Huge day with many announcements including Philly Fed at 10, Natgas at 10:30 and housing market index at 1.

Pivot Points - Know 'em.

Well, you know what I think.Can they continue to pull rabbits out of the hat? The minis are set for their standard gap down open with the 30m working off being oversold. The minis and most indexes took out their upper resistance lines for the bull market corrective yesterday. You rarely hear anyone bitch about a market going up, but if they don't let this thing breathe soon, you might hear a little uproar. I guess they really don't give a shit. They have proven that they have the ability to take every bubble to the extremes and they are doing the same here. All hail the mighty bonus! To hell with the country, I need a third house in the Hamptons.

Not sure I can add anything to the post from the close yesterday, so if you want to see a chart or two, scroll down. If something should happen I'll be screaming and posting.

I'll add my 30m SPX. I bark about the 30m minis and the 30m SPX quite a bit. This is my main trading chart. SSO up and SDS down. I'll be waiting on the MACD to cross. I like the black TL at 83 as a target if it gets thru the red support line.The key is to remember to buy at the bottoms! Gotta play it both ways.

As a disclaimer, nothing is fool proof. Do your own homework. Always use stops and have a set trading plan. This system works for me, but things change and time frames and signals don't always work (see the daily chart LOL). I'll place buy and sell lines on this chart when they hit, but they are not guaranteed in any way.


Dollar - got a pop overnight. but 30m is about to roll over. Should have more weakness here.
Natgas - Report at 10:30 today. Have your fingers on the trigger. Is the pop over? Was this just a pause before further weakness? It has been range bound for over a week now.
Oil - Might be rebounding. With all the talk about Israel and Iran teeing it up sometime soon I would not expect any weakness.
Gold - Should remain range bound leaning to more weakness
EUR/USD -  oversold on the 60m, but you never know. One of the PIIGS could puke up a lung any minute.

GL!

I Think You Have To Get Ready For A Turn

I'm just saying, you know how stupid this sounds, like the market could actually turn. LMAO. With that thought in mind I present the following. 

CPC is getting near the extremes that brought the last big sell off. It is not there yet and we may need a little pop to get us there, but it is in the potential reversal zone. Last time it was down here we got a major move.

 Daily SPX - OK, price is above the daily BB. It is just under resistance. The red wedge is ending. The BB is pinching price into support. The BB may be vertical at this point. The BB width is very narrow indicating volatility. It has been overbought for an extended period.

 SPX weekly - I have been bringing you this chart with targets since October. I have cautioned that this rally will be over when the RSI crosses that red support line. With RSI finally over 80 one would think that would be enough. I will be truly amazed if it crosses the green target zone which contains the 200ma at 1224, the gap, the 61.8% retracement at 1230 and C=A at 1214. In my opinion this last push that got the market thru the bear market upper trendline is the blow off top suckers rally.

I'm not saying go short the market. I'm saying this should be a major turning point if things were "normal". I will continue to play my SDS and SSO up and down on the 30m S Sto crosses on SPX. They can ramp this SOB to the moon for all I care, but if this technical intersection on the daily chart does not produce a reversal I'll be amazed (yes, even more than I already am). GL!

When Is Enough Enough? E-minis SPX 500 Futures

You tell me when enough is enough. The latest unfathomable feat of the march to infinity and beyond happened on Friday after the bell I guess speculation (with some inside information) on the Greek bailout announcement. Of course the minis shot up a few extra points, but what they gapped thru is the insanity of it. For months I have been bringing you the minis and the wedge. The upper trendline has been the one constant the market has respected, until tonight. In the words of Moses, "Behold his power and respect his rules." (No caps cause I was referring to Helicopter Ben in the place of I Am).

Daily from the low - 

60m Drill down -

Even closer - note the gap thru the TL. That is one way of knowing you have a really solid TL in the right spot. So now futures price is above the bull run's top TL and in the green wedge heading further into the stratosphere. The reversal of all this will be horrendous.

I believe the 60m futures will still be overbought in the morning (see the TLs under the indicators above). The divergence on the daily RSI and overbought condition can not be ignored much longer. After the gap up in SPX to get it's 1200 glory, I am anticipating a fall of some degree. Let the 30m minis cycle to the top and that should be the proper time to enter shorts (they have a nasty way of setting up the 30m indicators to bottom in the am so be careful shorting till they top). The 30m SPX rupture (see my last post below) on Friday was possibly the single most abomination of the charts I have seen thus far on the run up.

One last chart - YEARLY SPX - 1209 looks to be a really important number on this chart.You need to note that the MACD is still in bear mode and although RSI is bouncing off the 50 line now I would not pay that any attention. The yearly RSI will have to hit the 25 line or worse before this ends. That is one super bearish candle in 2008. I expect the candle for this year to be red as well. Yes, that is a trendline and the lower BB near 300. The 50 ma is at 479. More in the am. GL!

Morning Post, e-mini

Now the question becomes was the fall on Tuesday and Wednesday just another ABC corrective and the march up continues? If yesterday was a corrective of that move it was most impressive. If it was another 1 of the next 5 wave move up it was even more impressive. Look, at this time we all know this market is a POS rigged game. We all know it will come crashing down eventually. As I have anticipated from the beginning, and I repeat again, it will take and "external event" out of "their" control to make the markets crash. It will crash and it will be soon. They can't keep the balls in the air forever. They have nixed all rules and regulations and have had the printing presses in overdrive reinflating the bubble. It will pop. As I have stated before, there will be TWO market closures on the next fall.


I'll be back in the office next week. Enjoy your weekend. 

Pivot Points - Know 'em

Economic Calendar -

Masters -Yes, it is rigged as well. It seems the the standards for the WWE permeate the nation now.

I apologize for missing this analogy for over a year now. If the average American believe Pro Wresting is real, then WTF do you think they believe about this recovery crud the government and MSM are feeding them?

E-mini daily - The upper bull market resistance line is real. It has held the market for over a year now. I believe the pot can boil over, and it will sooner than later. All this pattern has left in it is churn. Significant upside should be limited from here. The only thing that can cause even more upside from here is even more significant market manipulation by the bots. Expect a long rant Monday.

GL and have a great weekend.

Morning Post, SPX, S&P 500, e-mini

Well they have teed off at the Masters and apparently the bears have teed off on the bulls as well. I am still on vacation. I can't wait to get back to writing the evening posts.

Pivot Points - Know 'em

Economic Calendar - Very busy with Jobs before the bell and Natgas at 10:30.

Masters - I still swear to this day the first time I walked into Amen Corner my feet did not touch the ground.

First an overview of where your favorite index is. Who has the farthest to fall to catch up? Well, you TZA and QID fans that have been feeling most of the pain have a chance to get the most delight on the backside if prior trends persist IMO.

SPX daily - Lord I hope the final divergence is set and this sucker can finally roll over for a week or two (or 52).

SPX weekly - Just look at the SPXA50 and the NYMO divergence and the last few time this combo has happened.

UNG- I'm not sure who it was that posted the possible breakout of UNG on March 8th. Oh yeah, that was me! As far as I know I was the only person on the planet that made the call. I did the post on Focal Equity and only linked it here in some comments. This time may be a little different, but a move north is still possible as the 30, 60 and dailys are oversold again. The possibility exists for a continued move north. I'd have my finger on the trigger at 10:30 just in case. I made a great scalp in less than 5 minutes last time.

GL today. I expect some churn today with a 50% chance of continued downside action. I'm thinking a corrective is in order if it does not let go. I'll post again during the day like yesterday if anything happens. This crack on the minis should be a big deal but may want a backtest so be patient. If no backtest, look out.

What More Does It Want?

This is getting a little ridiculous. OK, so now I'm seeing a double throwover (black and green wedge. both have completed A-E formations. The ABC has completed and measured out. The indicators have fought back to overbought levels. It is blowing out the upper BB. No divergences yet. It took out resistance set a new high and did nothing. The dow set a higher high today.

Your daily index comparison shows a "nice grouping" with everyone now at higher highs. That grouping would have me nervous as a bull. I'm just waiting patiently. The weekly his is positive right now but the Stos are not there yet. The hist on MACD is there for a turn. Look for the RSI5 to begin to roll over then you should be able to cut loose.

Morning Post

Happy St. Patty's Day. Will it be yet another green day for the markets? The minis say the open will be at least. I hope my NCAA bracket can make a run thru the tournament like the bulls have this past week. Talk about peeking at the right time, the bulls have really put it all together and appear unstoppable (well, with a little help from you know who and a lot of friends at FINRA, the SEC, the Fed, Treasury and various large banks and BD's). Don't worry folks this ramp job will become a rim job sooner or later, and the facial that the manipulators get for ramping this market to where it is will be the all time greatest.

I have a question. Let's say St. Patrick pulled a Tiger and went and had relations with a few lucky ladies behind the pot-o-gold. Who would you instill as the new Patron Saint of Green? Paulson, Bernanke, Geitner or another? (Note - if you did not wear green today, please don't be a dork and pin something green to your shirt. That only makes it worse. If the ladies want to know where your green is, ask them to use their imaginations. That is much better.)

One of my favorite videos of all time - Mobile, Alabama Leprechaun Crackhead Pot of Gold

SPX Daily - Sadly if you look at the indicators, this run is not near as extended as the run back thru January. You all know that I am watching for the weekly to turn (which ain't ready quite yet). The RSI 14 on the daily now has a well established support line under it. That will be my first key. The MACD hist is trending down. S Sto is embedded.The slope of the upper BB is little resistance.

It is Opex Wednesday. Anything could happen. That daily indicator chart is screaming a turn at any moment, BUT the defenders of freedom and the American way are on the other side and will fight for justice and truth (OK, now you are supposed to read sarcasm and thru the lines of that last statement). I'm gonna keep nibbling at some shorties with really tight stops. I'm not risking anything long at this point even thought the patron Saint of Green may be in charge today. The Dow is 50 points from a higher high. I think they will push that thru and after that all bets are off.

Dollar - Price is sitting on the lower support line running off the 74 low under the 76 low. There is also another diagonal support line. The daily indicators are close to bottoming. The 60m have set divergences. Looks like a turn could be coming soon. If the dollar/SPX correlation is for real this may help us time the turm and confirm a little more patience is still in order.

Oil - Sabre rattling with Iran has the most manipulated market in a tizzy. Not sure about that run up over the last couple of days, but it left the daily and 60m indicators in a nice divergence. If it should continue to run under normal fears and manipulation 86 should be the max. Any real fears and triple digits will be here in record time.

Natgas - Still looking for $4.24. At 4.31 nowand severely oversold. This thing might be like a coiled rubber band. It may pop big time, but just like a rubber ban it will fall back almost as fast as it went up. Looking for a UNG pop to the 9.50 area it it ever occurs.

Gold - Still climbing. If the dollar reverses so will gold. Problem there is that gold is riding a pretty solid lower TL right now and if that cracks it really falls. I just don't see that yet. I'll call a slow churn up for now.

EUR/USD - A reversal of the EUR should be upon us. They don't want it or deserve it, but that is what the charts say. The weeklys are oversold and turning up. The dailys are toppy. This does not work with what I am seeing for the dollar as I see them both needing to correct upwards. Something has to give. I think the globalists manipulating the currencies will move them where they need to be, so why are we even using TA? Bottom line is our banking system is more fraudulant and has all the chips and theirs sucks and is owned by ours, so I think we strengthen and they remain flat to down.

Don't forget Shanky's NCAA tournament challenge. We're up to 26 entries, so that is a good field. Go to the link. Join the group shanky's blog and the PW is shanky. I'll do a post on this later today.

GL!

Morning Post

Remember back in January where I kept harping on one more higher high? We're there. I lost a bunch of readers who thought I was nuts and EWT said "this can not happen again". Well, Prechter is not so proudly continuing his 0-fer on calling tops and sticking to using plain vanilla TA is kicking his (and his followers) ass. I am not paid millions to make market calls. I do not have a team of researchers. I am a nobody and am taking him to the woodshed. I wonder if those readers are lurking in the shadows now? Sorry, but I have to say this now, when the hell will you wake up and learn that EWT is a bunch of SHIT. How much money has it cost you. How much time have you wasted following Hotchberg and trying numerous fruitless counts? Is this the 4th top you have "counted" that "had to be it"? Listen, USE TA ONLY and you would not be in this mess. EWT will have it's moments of brilliance. Sometimes counts do work, but as Craig from Stocktock always said, "Trust the charts". That may be the best lesson I ever learned.

Not surprisingly to me, the SPX should open at a new high for the year this morning. Back in the infancy of the blog I set a standard and made the call, the market is manipulated and it will continue to go up until some "external force" that is out of "their" control rips it away. Back then I was one of the few buying into the possibility that the greatest market on earth was a farce, now I am one of the many. Part of my theory has been that the market is all they have left between them and anarchy.

They absolutely must keep the value of the markets up for many reasons. Thru interest rate manipulation they forced the markets to be the only place to play if you wanted to make any money. Thru providing excessive liquidity and quantitative easing and the use of many fraudulent (and what I propose are illegal) accounting measures, they have lifted the market to levels that represent nothing more than a farce. We are participating in the raping of the assets of the American people. The great Pump and Dump. The insider selling should tell you plainly what is going on. There is no regulation. There is no transparency. Everything is run and controlled by the big money lobbyists. The middle class is being wiped out while big government furthers it control over the sheeple thru supplementation to the growing masses of the needy. The welfare state is expanding.

On to the markets - We'll set a higher high on the SPX today. The Dow is still 117 point from setting a higher high.

Here is one of my index comparison charts. It used to be a good chart till this recent round of exuberance screwed it up. If this were a game of darts, I would say that looks like a nice grouping. Compare the last rise and this one. Notice anything different? That's right, this one is not orderly. It is an impulsive piling on. What you are seeing is what one would normally think is a sucker's rally. The last rush in by the dumb money that does not want to miss the move up. This type of piling on usually deserves a 15 yard penalty, but is it different this time? I think so, because the public is not participating. It is your tax dollars running thru the treasury and Fed into the hands of the broker dealers that use the HFT algos to buy and sell against each other front running the markets to siphon off millions for their benefit and bonuses. This is your tax dollars at work trying to "save the economy and produce and economic recovery" FOR THE BANKS.

This thing is about to let go. Be patient. I am not sure if the Dow will have to catch up and set a higher high or not, but if it gets close and as soon as it gets one tick above the previous high, I'd have my finger on the trigger. The weekly chart is not showing a turn yet, but the divergences are stronger now than on any of the previous turns. This will be the top. I am speculating that the mutual funds will want a good month end print (possibly the last one for many years), so this may churn till the last week or thru opex (but it may not).

For those of you that have called me nuts (or worse) for believing and insisting the markets are manipulated and that accounting fraud is the only reason for any of this "recovery" please see The "Repo 105" Scam: How Lehman Fooled Everyone (Including Allegedly Dick Fuld) And How Other Banks Are Likely Doing This Right Now from Zero Hedge. This may be not only the market's black swan but the government and the Fed's as well.

Be patient. I'm waiting on the weeklys to show some sign of wanting to turn (which could happen any minute as the dailys are now showing divergences). I would have to say that if not some time today then next week for sure some sort of turn is coming. I'll have all chambers loaded and a finger on the trigger. At the first sign of any significant momo south, I'll be pulling the trigger as fast as possible.

I'll add this - I'm speculating the possibility of another rising wedge if this is not the ending of the ABC. Well know for sure on the next breakdown which is right. If the ABC plays out we simply fall like a rock, but if we don't look for a D down and E up to a possible double top here to end it all.We're also somewhat off the cycles I was following. There is still plenty of time for the March low I was looking for, and wouldn't it be a beautiful move to get that low set?

GL out there. Don't forget my Tournament Challenge Bracket (PW- Shanky) Have a great weekend!

Morning Post

Will patience be rewarded today for the bears (at least for those who have been able to remain patient)? Minis down a little over 3 (they were down 5). I have the minis cracking the lower TL of a rising wedge that goes back to the 1084 low. The target for the fall is near 1106. The fibs for the fall are 38% -1119, 50% - 1112 and 62% - 1108. Now all that talk about "falling" might be hogwash as we all know markets do not fall anymore. The 30 and 60m indicators on the minis are bottoming, but you know not to pay attention to those. The dailys are overbought and those are the indicators we're watching here. The C leg of the ABC formation for what I am calling 2.1.3 has completed 78.6% of A so there may be a little more room to climb. 1157 is where C=A.

Economic Calendar - Redbook at 8:55 and then some note auctions make for another quiet day. Tomorrow will be busy, but I am not seeing anything IMO that will cause the market to react to tomorrows news.

A year later - hogwash - a year from what? The time they decided to hand our country over to the blackmailers? I'll ask, has anything good happened other than them creating a false sense of recovery? You might be in store for a good rant today after I have been forced to listen to the MSM spew BS all day.

A quick look at the charts says - 60m SPX rolling over and creating (or continuing even longer) divergences. The weekly chart is showing early signs of cracking. MACD hist is almost positive (we need that for a top IMO). T Sto has a hook. RSI5 is hooking under its upper divergence line. The most interesting is SPXA50 is just under 400 and trying to turn. It like to run to 400 or above and then reverse. It has made it there.


SPX Daily Chart - Little red doji yesterday on uber-lite volume. Smacking the upper BB which should (theoretically) cause resistance. RSI5 is in the nosebleed section and possibly rolling over. RSI14 is right at it's upper divergence line. S Sto look to still have some strength. MACD hist has not turned yet. Those that know my calls, I will look for a combo of the hist turn with a S Sto bear cross. ADX is at a point it has reversed in the past. Bottom line is everyone is in place for a turn but S Sto. Keep an eye on it and remain patient. Some sort of correction is overdue, but how much is the question? Are we completing the corrective or is there one more wave up? I'll play it short with caution and go deep short at the top of wave 2 of the first move south.

Dollar - Range bound for the past few weeks. This is looking more like a corrective flag than the fall I want. If this is a 4 then much more strength can be expected. The daily S Sto got a bull cross yesterday and MACD hist is now turning up, so look out for more strength.
Oil - Daily chart looks pretty toppy. Weekly chart says it can still run, but it is setting a big divergence indicating this is possibly the last of the last for high priced oil (that fits nicely with my thoughts of an impending global economic collapse).
Gold - tough read here as it plays in what might be a corrective above support hanging in a range. Weeklys look weak and the dailys are overbought. I'll go for continued consolidation and then is the dollar rises and the market tanks then gold should fall as well. HERE is a vid from Market Club that I think is pretty good.Wath the use of their trade triangles - it is pretty good.
Natgas - 4.24 is the 50% retracement of the move off of 2.41. There is also support at that level. Daily indicators are embedded on the bottom and the weeklys are still trending down. Pop them more weakness is what I am looking for. that pop will be worth jumping on if you can time it right. Should be close. Natgas report is 10:30 Thursday am. I would not touch it till then.
EUR/USD - Weekly oversold and has completed a 61.8% retracement off of the March lows. It should rally from here. Not much, but it should according to TA. Thus the base. How this fits with the dollar and Greece and where they have to deflate currencies to does not fit. So, I am a little miffed at this pair's direction.

GL out there. I expect to be short before the day is over.

Morning Post

Its starting - University of California Campus Erupts In Riots; Student Loan Scam Drives Up Cost Of Education; Expect More Riots - They are coming. I do not watch the MSM anymore, so I do not know if these were covered or not. More on this and other things to come (nothing good of course) in the evening post.

Economic calendar - 3 and 6 month auction later today. Otherwise quiet.

Bent on manipulation should be the overriding theme of this market. If Rosie is right and the SPX is roughly 26% overvalued on a P/E basis, then these unprecedented pops are all that more impressive. The low volume trading is allowing the market makers little resistance to push it where they want it to go. I think, as a trader, you have to keep an open mind and stick with the trend. If you have not learned not to fight the trend by now, please leave the room now and do not return. You do not belong in the trenches trading these markets. The trend will turn. P3 will come. A massive meltdown/slaughter is coming, but it is obviously not here yet, so keep an open mind towards the current trend and NOT on what we all know is eventually coming.

OK, at least one blog I know of has been calling/warning of the possibility of a 5.3.5 move for at least two weeks. Who could that be? Hmmmm? I've been right on most of my calls all the way up leaning with the unexpected upside driven by manipulation and they did not disappoint me again last week. Why do you think I posted the weekly chart last week and asked you to heed its strength? Yes, I took some small short positions on Thursday, but was stopped out at the open on Friday. A turn is coming soon. Wait for it to come to you. I would not trust anything long here. This next move south should be pretty drastic I'm thinking.

SPX 60m -Have we learned out lesson of gauging market moves on the 60m indicators class? They are not reliable (at least not in a way they used to be). I warned you not to trust 'em. Yes, I shorted on what I thought was an overthrow of the triangle. It looked really good. Now if my I'm counting right were clearly in the C leg of an ABC move. I think we're finishing 3, but I can also count a 5 wave completing. The move actually measures best to a double top which will be fun to call. Keep an eye on the weekly indicators. This should be the final move for the bulls. Yes, those divergences are real and should put some pressure on the market (you'd think).

SPX Daily - Overbought and at the upper BB.
SPX Weekly - Still climbing. MACD hist has not gone positive. Bears may have to wait for a green candle there. RSI5 is just under it's divergence line. Let's see if that holds. S and F Sto are still in bull mode.

I'm expecting a correction soon, but I'm gonna look for a turn in the Weeklys to confirm any serious downside action. We've all seen the 30 and 60m cycle all around while the markets have continued to rise. We have also see the dailys remain embedded for what seemed to be improbable time frames. I'm back to watching the weeklys. Be patient. The turn will come. 

Dollar - I believe I was one of the only ones calling for the ABC corrective (with my alt scenario as a run to 89). I think the corrective has run it's course and a throw over of a wedge has occurred. If I am wrong it does a 30% retracement from the top here and then look for a C=A run to 89. The weeklys are topped and the dailys still have plenty of room to fall. I'm favoring more downside for some time.

Oil - Who the hell knows in the most manipulated market of them all? I think it is going to near $90 and I may be able to put a gate on the top if the trends continues. Look for a backtest of the initial channel off of the lows.

Natgas - It has gotten to weak to fast IMO. It is blowing out the bottom of it's down channel. The dailys are embedded oversold. Again I'll refer to the weekly indicators that say no big move up is coming. It may get a pop here soon, but don't expect much.

Gold - Dailys are toppy but the weeklys have some room to run. I'll speculate on a double top as it should have continued strength. Now, how it reacts to a market turn will be interesting. I'm not sure if it will inversely correlate with the expected weakness in the dollar, but the setup looks to be calling for that.

EUR/USD - The EUR is gonna get pounded eventually, but what isn't? The race for devaluation is in full force, but the EUR may have to pull into the pits for some fresh tires as it has completed a 61.8% retracement and seems to have found support. Might be time to the dollar to play catch up.

Morning Post

Kind of quiet out there this morning, so you get lots of charts!

Economic Calendar - Consumer and investor confidence at 10:00

Earnings Calendar - Nothing huge bust worth a glance.

Emini 60m - What some are calling wave 1 down (blue) and wave 2 up (gray) are clearly seen here. The green diagonal line is the market support line going back to August. Notice how narrow the up channel is compared to the down channel and the decrease in volume with the upside move. Watch that green TL and the channel. If they crack I believe the bears will have the momo again.

SPX daily - Sorry to keep bringing you this chart over and over again, but it has kept me on the right side of the trade for some time now. The RSI 5 has finally crested and RSI may be rolling over. S Sto and  MACD hist have not confirmed anything yet. CCI and ADX are rolling over as well. We should be close given the indicator TL breaks on the 30 and 60m indicators. Another thing I will harp on is the green dashed bear market top TL. I assume this may be a magnet to any downside move and it is going to take a strong move by the bears to recapture it. (it can be seen on the weekly chart below as well.)

SPX Weekly - To me this chart says the market is confused somewhat. This may be the chart to watch to determine who really has the momo and if my thoughts of this being a 5.3.5 move are remotely possible versus the ending of a 2 corrective. Both RSIs have gone flat. MACD hist is moving up and has not gone positive. S Sto is in a bull formation still. Thus some confusion as two are saying up and two are saying caution. F Sto may be the one to watch as it looks to be rolling over and may be the first one here to confirm the trend change if we get one.

Gold - Fairly narrow trading range has developed since the beginning of the year (if you call 10% narrow). Look at the indicators. Topping and trending down. I'd look for the lower TL to be tested before any further strength (if there is any further strength).

Oil - Trending up in a large channel (yellow) and may be getting a little toppy. Nearing the 50% line of the channel with indicators kind of toppy, but still have room to run. There should be a lot of resistance in this area.

Dollar - My thoughts of a E throwover after completing and ABC corrective of the fall sho look good on this chart. It also makes sense if the whole world is going to be in a battle to devalue their currencies. The monthly dollar chart has this as the E of a larger A-E flag that should top at 89ish, thus I am somewhat torn on the call. The dollar has almost completed a 50% retracement of the fall and is at gap resistance.

Not gonna cover the currency pairs till I get them figured out. The drive for global devaluation can't work cause someone has to strengthen for someone to get weak. I assume we strengthen to assist everyone globally (and cause we have a bigger printing press) then later everyone collapses somehow. This is what has been happening recently and the trend may continue. Some are seeing the dollar in a big move up here. I do not think that is possible given the global dynamics (thus I think the EWT counts are wrong).

SPX should be about to roll over here and give the bears the momo for a little while. It does not look like a big 3 down is coming as should be expected by EWT, but you never know. Let's be patient and let the set up come to us.I assume i will be short somewhat (maybe 1/2 position) before the day is over.

GL today!

Morning Post

Like sand thru the hourglass - as the market churns. There is no telling how long they can keep the charade up. As long as they have no regulation of any sort, a printing press and basically no accounting rules I think they will run it till they suck the last dollar out of the corpse that is the American taxpayer. Then it all goes bust. So, put the big moves of P3 in the back of you mind for a while. It will happen, you are just going to have to be patient.

Economic Calendar - Bernanke speaks at 11 this morning.

Earnings Calendar - There are a few good ones left. TGT after the bell.

Minis at 1112 resistance riding along the top channel resistance line. It all depends on what Helecopter Ben has to say today and where the GS HFT bots want to take us.

SPX daily - Getting overbought but not ready to turn just yet. Should be soon with the 30 and 60m setting massive divergences (thus I very rarely ever play a 60m indicator only daily for the turns). 50ma, upper BB resistance and the 61.8% retracement are flashing yellow warning turn soon. It really is that simple. You can't force the market to do anything. You have to be patient and let it come to you. When the S Sto gets it's bear cross on and the MACD hist turns that will be the time, but until then you are dreaming if you are short. If Uncle Benny decides he wants to squeeze the shorts some more, you know darn well he can do it. Tune in at 11:00. The Weeklys are moving up as well. Remember the dailys can embed up here. this is no normal market.

Gold - Still climbing and should continue. Lets see what happens at the 1142 level. I expect a little more than that.
Dollar - I think the climb is done for now. I'm torn between a possible run to 89 or the ABC corrective that I have been calling is completed and it is toast from here. Looking at the daily and weekly indicators I'd be leaning really short here. Again, tune in at 11:00.
Oil - Plenty of room to run and may double top or better.
EUR/USD - technically it is either bottoming at the 61.8% retracement and is due for a bounce or the indicators embed and the party goes on.
Natgas - Channeling down. &4.67 is the 38% retracement. Let's see if it stays in the channel when it gets to that number.

GL out there. I'm in cash till Ben speaks. I'm gonna try to get some more detailed posts out this week that may help.

Morning Post

The minis are entering their first round of resistance points in this area. The next block is around 1113. Minis also at the top of the corrective channel. 30 and 60m getting toppy but the dailys have plenty of room to run.

Earnings Calendar -  Cause you may want to see it.

Economic Calendar - Tomorrow is a busy day with employment and the EIA reports on Natgas and Petrol.

SPX daily - Pretty much just like the minis. 30 and 60m overbought. I'm viewing this move as more of the continuation of the breakout of the red dashed falling wedge. The BB 20ma is toast and the next stop will be the 50ma at 1108 which sits in the retracement zone (box) between 1097 and 1110. The upper BB is back on the chart finally and sits at 1136. The only caution point I see on this chart for the bulls is the RSI sitting at the 50 line. MACD hist has gone positive which means the market can now put in a top. I'll be watching the RSI 5 for preliminary topping signals.Friday I called for 1103 max upside. Let's see if that can hold.

I suggest you keep an eye on this as it falls for a possible reversal signal when it meets price. I was correct in last Fridays buy call and I'm still calling for some more upside. I will caution the longs to keep those stops in place and lift them with the market. This sucker can and will turn on a dime and when it does it can be severe.

More upside than most may be expected if the dollar has completed the ABC I have been calling and it is not in a 5 wave move up.





Gold - is on a tear (up 8.5% in the last week) and possibly has a valid breakout happening cutting thru the upper resistance line with authority. Will it backtest? 30 and 60m indicators have some strong divergences, but the dailys are just getting warmed up. Gold all depends on the dollar. 1135 to 1157 is the retracement zone for this correction (if it is one).
Dollar -The dollar is a tough call. Is it completing the ABC corrective leading to much further weakness now or does it have more steam left in the engine? I like the ABC as being completed, but I think it is going to double ZZ to the 89 area before the plummet. Either way it eventually gets crushed.
Oil - At near term resistance, but in the channel with room to climb.
Natgas - Channeling down and indicators look like more weakness is to be expected.
EUR/USD - Looks like a possible E throwunder near a 62% retracement. That would be a classic corrective completed and some strength should be expected.

GL out there. Nice to be back. I'm gonna be updating charts and posting the beat of what I find.

Morning Post

Snow day for Shanky here in South Georgis. Waiting on 4-6" of some pow-pow to show up on my doorstep. I'll believe it when I see it. What's the forecast for Vancouver today? I feel sorry for those people up there, but still looking forward to the winter Olympics and Daytona this weekend.

China has raised rates again. The big news that pissed me off this am is that Toyota hired  regulators to help hault investigations. The corruption is rampant. They care more about corporate health and profits than our own well being. You would think they are getting better and might be learning something from all this mess. Apparently they don't give a flip about our well being. Money talks.

Markets are at a precarious spot. The EWT folks are looking for another sharp move south very soon to save their most recent counts. They may get it as the markets try to hold upper resistance lines with the futures down. The mixed indicators have some (especially me) feeling a little leery about forecasting any specific direction at this time. The 60m overbought, the dailys have been bottoming for sometime and the weeklys are still headed south. I tend to lean to what the dailys have going on for true direction.

SPX daily - Which TL will be the upper resistance for the next turn? Trying to crack the dashed red TL now that has been proven resistance. On the other hand the blue TL below has been proven support. A break either way could be significant. Looking at the indicators the RSI 5 cracked it's downtrend line. Every other indicator is oversold and ready to turn. My old reliable S Sto has a bull cross. On the other hand the 60m is overbought and the weeklys are still headed south. Barring some reversal in the dailys forcing them to embed and even given the bearish action in the futures, I am going to lean to some more upside before any major turn south (which is coming). Maybe this move at the open today cures the 30/60m problem or they become embedded overbought. I'd call it somewhere in the 2 wave and not in 3 yet.1 is over. Possibly some more choppy consolidation. The BBs are still way to wide for any super volatile moves. 1103 max upside at this time. The bears party will just have to wait I guess. IF I AM WRONG (and since I decided to make a bold call against the grain) I'd say recent support at 1044 and the green bear market TL will be in play pretty quickly.

Have a great weekend. I'll be rooting for the old man in the #5 car as always at Daytona (I like the 38 as well). GL!

Morning Post

OK, so China decides to start cashing out and the Greece volleyball keeps getting bounced around. It appears the global financial fireworks are starting to launch some of the bigger shells as we work our way thru the show. I am surprised there was not a bigger move on the China divestment announcement. Remember there has to be a buyer for every seller, so you gotta wonder who that will be (since our government is the great backstop of the planet). I guess the market is saying this deal is a wash. If you look at the action in the currencies during the Greece announcements yesterday, the dramatic swings on the in/out announcements were pretty wild.

Earnings calendar -

Economic calendar - Lots of numbers pushed back to Friday due to snow storm on east coast (maybe a few global warming meetings should be canceled as well?). Uncle Bennie speaks at 10:00.

E-minis 15m - Channeling up towards resistance. The dailys still remain oversold even after this move up off of 1040. Looking at the indicators I'd be forced to lean long or for downside volatility to be little risk.

SPX Daily - If those upper TL's on the indicators start to give way, the bears are gonna be pissed. If they hold and throw the market down for one more pop, then there will have a nice set up for a larger corrective wave to come. It is oversold, the RSI5 divergence, the looks of some of the other indicators and the possible solution (if you can call it that) to the Greece issue may actually have us in 1 of 2 of 1 of P3 already. 

Gold - Still oversold and bouncing off of support. I think it consolidates for a short while.
Oil - Holding lower support line and coming off of oversold conditions.
Dollar - Overbought and reversing.
Natgas - Reversing off of upper TL and possibly breaking down. Low volatility expected as indicators are playing in the middle of the road.
EUR/USD - Look - if you measure it (and listen to all the bitching going on) it has completed and ABC corrective almost to the number. On the inverse the dollar has done the same. Let's see if we go into strengthen the Euro mode as the financial saga continues to churn.

This is a strange spot. I am seeing conflicting messages. The indicators want more but the numbers say the corrective is done. The dollar may have peeked and the EUR may have finished its fall. The FI markets may be the catalyst we are waiting on as everyone digests what China's move towards financial terrorism will do. The Greece saga is not over. I still have some small shorts from long ago and that tiny long that everyone thought I was crazy to play from the 1049 level. Is 1 of 3 is toast or did we just complete a corrective? The indicators to me say there is room for a 5 down left based on the position of the TL's, but if they give way we are in 2. The only hope I see of a 3rd wave scenario is that the weeklys still have room to fall. I remain cautiously positioned both long and short LOL (with more weight short).

GL out there.

Morning Post

MCD and KO do well. Ignore them, cause all eyes are on the PIIGS and who else might be invited to play Default Dominoes.

I'm sticking that it all comes down to Greece, the other PIIGS and the EU. Nothing else really matters anymore. The focus is there. The only question is does the thief come in the middle of the night or during trading hours. How much of it is priced in?

The rumors and news surrounding Greece and the PIIGS are insane. Just how much of this is in the control of GS and not Trichet or any other fraudulent government money man.

What was up with the secretive banker meeting in Australia while the G7 was meeting on the other side of the world?

Earnings calendar -

Economic calendar -

E-mini 60m - Channeling down (Sky blue lines) after breaking the Green support line that held the market up since June. Reversing near the 38% retracement (yellow line at 1037) of the 862 low. The dailys as expected are pretty oversold and this mornings pop of 9.5 points is not surprising. Any good news will cause a thrust these days and the fact that things in Greece have calmed down somewhat is reason for the dip buyers to get active again.

SPX - I still contend it is fighting off the upper bear market TL. It tagged it again yesterday and reversed. Can it hold is yet to be seen. The daily indicators are struggling to gain ground and remain oversold. The RSI5 divergence tried to give way yesterday, but may be coming home to roost today based on the futures. 1085 is the max if we even get close to that. 1110 is the 68% retracement at this time and the 50 ma on the daily chart. It is only a matter of time before the collapse. As I mentioned earlier, will we wake up to it one morning or will it happen during trading hours.

Dollar - Is it having an overthrow of a wedge? It would be backtesting the upper TL right now if it is. Pretty overbought, but this will not mean anything if a flight to safety occurs. I also think there is a possibility that an ABC has completed, but looking at things politically I believe the rush to safety on an EU breakdown sends the dollar to 89. Then it crashes with everyone else.
Gold - Getting a nice pop this morning. It is oversold and might have a little upside left. A pop to the 1085 - 1090 range may be in order. There is upper channel resistance there.
Oil - Oversold and bouncing off of lower channel support. If this support cracks 65 and 59 would be likely stopping points. I called $55 months ago. That TL and target may have moved.
Natgas - Revesding off of the upper channel line, but at support. Indicators are mixed. So, /NG is in a very precarious spot. Charts are telling me there is confusion among the ng troops, that is usually not a good thing.
EUR/JPY and /USD recovered some yesterday and have been crushed over the past month. As correlated to the dollar, they look to have completed ABC correctives, but given the PIIGS situation, I have to expect worse. If this is a 5 wave move we are in 3 down and should be expecting a 3 of 3 soon.

GL out there.

Morning Post

It all depends on the PIIGS and whether some sort of default is being or has been priced into the markets as to how fast we fall from here. Greece appears to be toast and I'm not sure anyone is going to step up to the plate. If they save Greece, then who's next. they can't save them all. Someone will not have a chair when the music stops playing. It is only a matter of time before some massive meltdown of what I think will be the EU first, then over the next year or two we live in denial as regions begin to tumble one by one. I am becoming more afraid that war may be inevitable and the Mayan calendar may be deserving some merit. More on Greece here.

Economic calendar - Not much I see other than auctions will Wednesday

Earnings calendar - KO and PHM tomorrow. Still a full slate out there, but most of the notables have passed.

SPX daily - Where are we? We are somewhere in 3 of 1 I think.  This may possibly be 2 of 3 of 1. That was a nice pop late Friday that got back 38% of the fall from 1105. There is no question the daily chart remains oversold. I warned of the divergence on RSI 5 on Friday. That is the only thing that looks good on this chart right now. I did my best job a placing the bear market top TL on this chart cause I think it should have some bearing on the markets actions. (Looking at the chart it appears that Stockcharts has inconveniently moves the TL -they do that if you are not careful - It is close - I'll move it back later - just one of the many issues I have with them.)

SPX 60m - The last big pop was led by some huge divergences in RSI, MACD and ROC. Not this most recent one. You know I like to trade the daily indicators. The 60m Can be misleading at times. It appears a channel has formed. On this chart I give the possibility of SPX being in 2 of 1, but that is remote.

I'm expecting choppy to up trading for a few days with a high degree of risk for large downside moves. If we are in 3 of 1 then the third wave has not hit and that will be a ripper. Weekly RSI is at the 50 line just under the P2 support line. SPAX50 is about to hit 100 which has been an extreme oversold reversal area. The bear market top TL was pierced, but held. 960 to 940 is my preliminary target for the bottom of 1. The word of caution is that this puppy can reverse at any moment and very hard. What happens with the PIIGS is key. Let's see what the bulls have left in them. they may be at a point where they have to focus on saving just the banks and not the whole market.

Gold - At the 38% retracement and lower LT channel support line with the daily indicators oversold. 1020 is the next support level. I would not be surprised to see a pop from here to 1085. I expect further weakness as it may follow SPX or the inverse to the dollar (which may continue its rise sooner than later).
Dollar - Big gap at 81.27 up to the 50% retracement at 81.90. Might be in a over throw of a rising wedge and it is overbought.
Oil - Cracked the lower channel line on big volume. Daily it is oversold with everything else. Looking for consolidation or a slight pop.
Natgas - About the only thing that is moving up. Might be a bear flag, but the indicators look good. that could all change with supply though. Indicators say it can go higher.
EUR/JPY - Just got hammered last week. Very oversold.
EUR/USD - In the retracement zone and oversold.

GL!

The Wedge And The Target

On January 5th I first posted the chart with the rising wedge and a proposed target 1046.37. I think I got a few laughs if I am not mistaken. I continued to post the wedge and followed it thru the remaining climb and overthrow E touch and now present it again today. Sometimes these things stick out like a soar thumb and you can see 'em coming from a mile away. Thus, I always look for potential formations as early as possible in any move. It does not always work out, but when you get into a "what could it do" scenario and put the TL's on paper and then see it play out, it can be a beautiful thing. Now, lets see if this target can hold.

January 5th Post with potential target 1046.37.

Here is the chart today after adjusting the proposed target to an actual measurement 1056.38. It initially stopped at the horizontal target line, but continued to the measurement point this morning. Is that the end of 1? I'd also like to point out that it has completed a backtest of the upper TL of the initial formation down and may have completed a falling A-E wedge (better seen on INDU). RSI 5 may be setting a divergence on the daily chart. The fall may not stop here, but hey....(oh, and yes, I did call for "one more" higher high at the end of the wedge as well.) Just a little horn tooting. Feeling frisky today. Sorry. 

Morning Post

Another 480,000 lost. When do you think this "norm" will finally catch up with us? Wait till you see the Explaining The Government's 1.8 Million Job Overestimation In Pictures. Did you catch that headline - 1.8 MILLION OVERESTIMATION! I tell you day after day that they are full of shit and you can't trust a damn thing out of them. So we're gonna have a "slight" adjustment that is going to ADD ONE MILLION people previously unaccounted for to the jobless. Does anyone really know the truth? It will implode and it will not be pretty.

Economic calendar - nothing big

Earnings Calendar - Jobs reports and a bunch of other fictitious numbers will be released today.

SPX Daily - Bears came back as expected yesterday. Jobs number sank the futures. The question is are we in 3 of 1 (the major leg down) or is this still the B leg of the corrective. The thought that this could be one last B down of P2 is fading fast. GS and the boys would have to pull their 1,000th rabbit out of the hat and I believe they are out of rabbits. All we can do it wait and see at this point. Lets look to see if it gets to 1087 support. I'm in cash.






Gold - Met the upper TL and reversed. Daily indicators are a little out of whack but are more bullish than bearish. 1066 is massive support. I believe the 1000 level holds for a long time.
Oil - Pulled back yesterday on the numbers. I think this is a corrective and another buying opp will be soon.
Natgas - trending down and it will continue.
Dollar - Popping into an overbought situation. It will need a correction sooner than later.

I'm getting worried. My gut bearometer is spiking. Really not comfortable with the global situation. The dominoes start to fall soon I'm afraid.We'll see this in 3 of 1 of 1 soon and then the fun begins.

GL out there.

Morning Post

Good morning. Futures are up a smidge (2.50 at this time). They have pulled back 4 points off of the 1092 high. The minis and SPX are dancing to a different band right now. The minis have broken their major top tl and have broken back above the market support line gong back to June. This should have been a brick wall, but was not. Let's see what happens in the 1104 area if it can get there.

Earnings calendar - AFL goes after hrs today (that would be a hometown ex-employer of yours truly) with MET and TSO. In the am we have PFE, SGP and TWX as a few bigger names roll thru.

Economic calendar - Timmaaaah gets grilled at 10:00 for the next three days. Pending home sales at 10:00 as well.

SPX daily has almost confirmed a st trend change. ADX and a couple others are not at the party yet, but the main playas are there and it should not be long till it gets going. The base at the 61.8% retracement f the run from 1028 is another positive development. Cracking 1087 resistance in the last few minutes yesterday opened the door to 1103. I got a 1/2 position yesterday in SSO.

The chart I share this morning is the Dollar Triangle. Your thoughts would be appreciated. Remember, you saw it here first (well, maybe not, but I have not seen it anywhere else). Looks a lot like P1 doesn't it? This is part of the reason I am looking for an ABC and not a 5 wave move here. My target calls for an over throw of the triangle sometime next year.Of course it is possible that the 40ma throws it back down here and it just runs to new lows. Remember I am pretty biased towards a very weak dollar.

Dollar - topping nt on the daily indicators. It needs a breather. Support at 78.
Gold - Approaching an upper TL that might slow it down some, but I think it is in an ABC wave 2 corrective that might throw it up to the 1150 to 1175 range. Dailys are oversold and turning.
Natgas -  Channeling down but may be oversold somewhat and might pop based on the daily MACD and possible S Sto bull cross.
ERU/JPY - Should reverse here for a pop. Really oversold.
EUR/USD - Looks like a throw under of a falling wedge in oversold conditions stopping just above a 50% retracement. If it does continue to fall 1.3755 should be the max.
Oil - At support and oversold. I'd look at playing a reversal here. USO or OIL might be worth looking into. Do your homework and use stops. Inventory data comes at 4:30 later today.

I'm looking for more upside today and thru the rest of the week. Maybe 1 is complete (if it was a 1). The dollar looks like it is going to confirm the move and remain in concert with the indexes. I'm long 1/2 SSO and looking to add to it and possibly some TNA for the short pop.

Have a good one!