Chartapalooza 08/24/12 Dollar, Oil, well .... Everything

I need to churn out some individual detailed reports on the below. I'll see if I can get to that next week. Let me know what you want to see.

Read 'em and weep -

Dollar - I suspect our fiat gets one last pop when the Euro fails. That will piss off uncle Benny, but that's too bad. He'll get his wishes of mega devaluation sooner than later as they MUST devalue to support the exponentially expanding debt of the country. A crash is coming but not till after the Euro failure, rush to safety (LMAO) pop I suspect the failing reserve currency gets. I still think you will live to see the dollar with a $4 handle. Dollar sits at channel support and multi-year s/r  at $81. That's a very important level.

Morning Post, SPX, S&P 500, e-mini

Well they have teed off at the Masters and apparently the bears have teed off on the bulls as well. I am still on vacation. I can't wait to get back to writing the evening posts.

Pivot Points - Know 'em

Economic Calendar - Very busy with Jobs before the bell and Natgas at 10:30.

Masters - I still swear to this day the first time I walked into Amen Corner my feet did not touch the ground.

First an overview of where your favorite index is. Who has the farthest to fall to catch up? Well, you TZA and QID fans that have been feeling most of the pain have a chance to get the most delight on the backside if prior trends persist IMO.

SPX daily - Lord I hope the final divergence is set and this sucker can finally roll over for a week or two (or 52).

SPX weekly - Just look at the SPXA50 and the NYMO divergence and the last few time this combo has happened.

UNG- I'm not sure who it was that posted the possible breakout of UNG on March 8th. Oh yeah, that was me! As far as I know I was the only person on the planet that made the call. I did the post on Focal Equity and only linked it here in some comments. This time may be a little different, but a move north is still possible as the 30, 60 and dailys are oversold again. The possibility exists for a continued move north. I'd have my finger on the trigger at 10:30 just in case. I made a great scalp in less than 5 minutes last time.

GL today. I expect some churn today with a 50% chance of continued downside action. I'm thinking a corrective is in order if it does not let go. I'll post again during the day like yesterday if anything happens. This crack on the minis should be a big deal but may want a backtest so be patient. If no backtest, look out.

Morning Post

Minis up 5 and climbing. Boy does CNBS have the cheerleaders out this am touting growth and prosperity. sounds good if you are a moron. Remember they are salesmen, not prophets. What's that saying about lipstick on a pig (all except Becky of course)? Our first morning with Benjamin back at the helm for another four years looks to be getting off to a prosperous start. I guess the markets take to the idea of furthering the reflation trade.

E-mini 60m - That green support line going back to June was unexpectedly tested again. That was the missing 5th wave I am suspecting. I was a day early jumping into the small long position, but that is fine. Got out with small gain and now ready to reload again. Let's see what happens at the 50% line in the sky blue channel and then at the top of it as well. The yellow wedge target is just outside the top of the blue channel near 1123. Resistance at 1103, 1112 and then up around 1127 should be your stopping points and then the retracements are 38% 1101, 50% 1109 and 62% 1117. I believe a base has been built and I'm not looking down (yet).

SPX 60m - Now you know why I like the daily indicators to trade off of. Take a peek at the divergences here and see how ineffective they have been to this point. Sure, they are screaming a turn is coming but not the tradeable point of the market. This is a good chart to see the fibs, s/r and the trend.









Gold - Is about to bottom out and reverse I think. Within $20 of the 38% retracement and double converging channel support. Might be time to buy some more tungsten gold soon. $1066 is the 38% retracement. When that eventually cracks, 1020 is the next stopping point.
Oil - As I showed in the chart yesterday am, oil is at lower channel support completing a 23.6 retracement at $71.60. Daily S Sto bull cross and divergence in RSI may mean the bottom is in.
Dollar - Sister Christian is "Motorin" right on up the charts in what I am calling the 3 of C of the ABC correction.
Natgas - support has cracked and a lower low has been set. It may be channeling down and might be time for a small pop after giving up over a dollar (down 15%) in the past few weeks.
EUR/USD - still beow 1.40 and looks like it will get even weaker if the dollar is gonna continue Motorin.
EUR/JPY - Finally took out the LT support level of 126.71. 124.24 is the next level. It may be channeling down.

GL out there. GDP is strong like bull! (like bullshit if you ask me). Keep on playing their game, cause you can't beat 'em. I'm looking for a corrective to begin soon. My daily chart has not given a buy signal yet. the MACD hist reversal yesterday really pissed me off. That and the S Sto cross looked good, but as I noted RSI and a few other factors were not there. They will be soon I believe.

Have a great weekend.

Morning Post

I took nothing away from the populist cheer leading effort last night. Nothing new or surprising. More stuff today on the earnings calendar. Jobless report was another stunner IMO. While we are not losing jobs at an increasing rate anymore, we're still dumping over 400k per reporting period. Think about that number for a minute. Remember the first time the number climbed above 300k? That was bad, now 400k+ is just ho hum. Don't worry, the market will accept this as good news most likely.

E-mini 60m - It is either a channel or an unformed wedge. Looks to me like the minis have broken a downtrend after tagging supports at 1081 and meeting the lower market support line (green). The question is whether this is an ABC corrective or something larger. Form and the indicators will tell us that, so be patient while the market climbs here. 1111 and 1127 are the two resistance levels I see on the minis. Watch that possible upper channel line.

SPX Daily - Back inside the lower BB after tagging the red support line and making a nice retracement of the move off of 1028. 1114 is the 50ma, support and the 50% retracement sit near there as well. If we have completed a 5 and this is a corrective that would be a likely area for top. 1131 is another good spot that may be attainable. With the bull cross on S Sto, MACD hist reversing, CCI divergence and RSI possibly getting in the game there is a chance for stronger upside from these oversold levels. The 60m chart had some nice divergences coming into yesterday. I will note that ADX is not participating yet.

Gold Daily - This chart goes back to the '08 low of 688. IMO that is a nice channel up (gray). the green channel is diving into the lower gray support line, the 38% retracement (yellow line) and the sky blue resistance/support line. This is massive support IMO coming soon. If that cracks it is all over but the crying. If it holds the possibility of a pop back to 1227 is pretty good. Daily indicators say oversold and support will hold. Weekly indicators say more pain to come. 1082 is pretty good support here. 1066 to 1068 should be it near term.



Dollar - Movin on up. Weekly chart says it can run some more, but it is getting NT toppy. My target remains 89 to complete what I think is an ABC corrective before much further weakness. The EWT people see a super strong 5 wave move here. It is possible if there is a flight to safety (LOL). I say currency devaluation is the only game in town. While I have speculated the dollar with a 4 handle I think $68 is looking better. No, I'm not kidding.Now, that may be a few years off tough. We'll have to see.

Oil - Continues to roll over from overbought conditions. After nearly three weeks of falling is it time to stop? I think so. Take a look at this daily chart. Support at the lower yellow channel TL and the indicators looking to turn. S Sto bull cross. MACD hist turning up and RSI with a small divergence. If this lower channel line should crack, the 38% retracement lies at 65, so that would be the max NT.





Natgas - Cracked the support line I have been speaking of for a few weeks and took out a support level as well. 38% retracement is $4.67. The 50% support at 4.24 looks the best right now as there is a support level and gap there as well. EIA NATGAS report at 10:30 today.

Enough for now. GL out there. I'm log SSO and looking to add some QID and TNA at appropriate spots.

Morning Post

And the jobs report says - worse, and not surprisingly CNBS is struggling to find a positive angle on the subject. Why not report it as it is - BAD! It is friggin BAD. Just say it. This spin BS from Liesman and the others has to stop.The CITI deal sucked. That is a BIG RED FLAG.

The dollar spiked nicely last night as the breakout continues. There is a big gap that will be closed at 78.02 on the daily chart from 09/04. there is now firm support at the 75.80 range.

The EUR/USD continues its plunge as expected. It has fallen to the $1.43 support level and may take a breather here. If not the 38% retracement is $1.41.

Gold's brief recovery may be over for now as it has net the upper channel line and has reversed. The $1088 level support might hold and if not the 38% retracement at $1066 would be the next most logical spot.

 



Oil's recovery (as advertised here) appers to have hit a ST ceiling after a nice run. There is a channel down (not shown here) forming over the last week or so. My question, is this a backtest of the larger gray channel and more downside is to come or is this just the start of something better as the daily indicators say.

The other day I quietly and politely made a e-mini 1096 call. So far they are pausing at 1095.75. Can it get worse? Well, going against some of the grain and counts, I have been decidedly bearish (since the boom, boom, boom chart I posted on Sunday). So we get a little boom action this am. I'm not saying this is something major. I posted the daily chart so you can see pretty clearly all the action. Mainly notice all the support at the 185 level. As for a count? This may be a 1 of a 3 down. I am not willing to go for anything under 1085 quite yet. If we take out 1085 I will be one short sum beech. There is not much to stop it under that. You go straight to 1064 and then to 1030. I expect the PPT to put up a good fight (unless they used all their funds buying up CITI and Wells offerings - DOPE!)



Natgas is topping I think - It is at resistance at least and struggling to get any higher. The turbo boost it got this week from the XOM deal may need to be corrected some.

GL out there and happy holidays.

Natural gas surges after EIA inventories data (A UNG Post)

Natural gas surges after EIA inventories data so says MarketWatch. Inventories fall significantly. OK, question time, what happens when  you have near record inventories and you basically cut production in half and consumption increases slightly? Folks, do not get to excited about real demand increasing for some time. Now, will this inventory change effect the forward spot price for NG thus driving UNG higher? That is yet to be seen. That is the danger to the trade. 

Working off oversupply while dramatically cutting production = reduced inventories which does not necessarily mean increased pricing structure which is what we care about.

Here is the link to the EIA NATGAS page.

Sure, this is a form of price manipulation and you will pay for it in the end. You, the consumer, are witnessing price manipulation that is not working in your favor, but instead in the name of salvaging corporate profits. On the conspiracy side, I am beginning to wonder if the NATGAS price destruction was a predetermined action in relation to the green movement in some way that has been influenced by the carbon kooks and big oil?

Then again, to what extent do you really trust any numbers coming form any government agency? IMO, you should not. Should that work into your trading decisions? I do not think so. You need to find the momo and where "they" want prices to go and ride that train. right now that momo is still to the downside and will remain there till proven differently.

NATGAS and UNG are not exactly tracking each other any more. Well they are, just from a distance. I am not commenting on the dislocation other than a lot of people who bought UNG for the pop got ripped off IMO. I think this is one of those "charts you are not supposed to see". If things were "normal" UNG should be somewhere near $20 right now.

UNG daily - This chart's indicators look pretty green and may have a chance to run. RSI cracking the divergence line could be a key point for the bulls. The weeklys do not look as bad as they have in the past (kind of mixed right now). For the bears I have some black arrows showing prior interaction with the MA's in this fall. That combined with the upper channel resistance would cause me to caution against any aggressive move here. There is a lower blue box with a question mark in it  that I deem a possible target based on the channel, MA's, indicators and cycle lines. Is there a possible H&S in there? Yes, but .... Can it make it to gap resistance? Yes, but ....

Again (as usual) I caution investors and warn that UNG moves mainly as a function of the forward spot price. If it goes up so does UNG. If not, it falls. Based on the first chart, once would speculate that a correction is in order. That is it. you are either lucky or not.

Now let's look at another relationship that NATGAS shares with OIL. The ratio of the price of oil to the price of NATGAS is out of proportion now and a correction is in order. There are a lot of people that believe NG will be retesting the recent lows. That would require one heck of a fall in oil. there are so many possibilities that can drive prices around, I won't speculate on what could happen (war, global depression, carbon credits, you name it.). I believe Oil will do most of the work here over time as I believe Oil is going to $55.

You UNG investors need to be nimble and keep the stops tight. It could run to the moon, but then again it has been proven time and time again that there is not yet a limit to how low it can go. There is a bunch of resistance above right now, and I would not chase it here. That is a big bullish candle, but it also left a nasty gap. That is pretty typical MO for every move off of a low so far. If it were to get above the upper channel line and if we can get some sort of established EWT count going up, then I'll look into holding it. Till then, I'll keep swing trading off of the bottoms. I'll  add that IF it should break out and the H&S plays out, somewhere near 14.50 would be the target (there is a nice resistance line near there).

NATGAS futures Prices


GL and have a great holiday season .

LOOK Into The Future(s).

DXY daily- Showing the yellow triangle and the pink bul market falling wedge. The backtest is complete. Now can it crack that upper yellow resistance line? Dollar is flat now in overnight trading which is somewhat surprising.

/ES E-mini daily (S&P futures) - Pink is bear market top line. Red is P2 bull market support line. Sky blue is nt support line. All that adds up to a lot of support esp when you throw in the 50ma helping to hold things up.

/YG Gold futures daily - Rising wedge rising out of a bull market rising wedge. Attempted breakdown with RSI where it is and the 50ma below may mean a good pullback is in order sooner than later. Tellow are the 398% fib and the yellow box is the 50 to 61% fib retracement zone.

EUR/USD daily - Yellow rising wedge rolling over into the light blue channel. Does the 50ma and the yellow support line hold? Tough call, but if you back the chart out you can see the trouble the EUR/USD is in.

 
EUR/JPY daily - With the green and yellow trendlines possibly going trouble may be here sooner than later.

 /NG NATGAS 30m - A possible channel and the pink line is support. 

Oil  daily - riding the 50ma with 4 support lines under it. Might be hard to bring down I'd say.




Kind of quiet out there tonight.  GL trading.

LOOK Into The Future(s).

I hope everyone had a great holiday weekend. I'm toast, so much for having fun putting up all the Xmas stuff. More like a battle royal around my home. Well, it is almost over and I can commence to enjoy the season.

No Dubai surprises to look forward to in the am, but there are still 12 hours till the opening bell. Amazing how that was shaken off like a bad tackle. That is just a little taste of what is to come. If they are having CRE problems, just wait for ours to hit. It is only a matter of time. I still don't think they will let anything happen to the market (that they can control) till Xmas shopping season is done.

E mini 60m - Looking back on a 60m thru Thursday. ED down and a rising wedge up. Not much change from the close Friday. RSI is high and the 61.8% retrace is met.

DXY daily - Looking at the descending triangle (yellow). The only hick-up is the throwunder at the yellow circle. Looks to be nearing an end of the consolidation period. That top trendline is pretty solid.

 
Gold - /YG daily - I stretched it back this time so you can see the rising wedge and the possible throw over. Yellow box is the retracement zone and the yellow line is the 38% retrace. Looks like 1085 will be a good target soon if not worse. They were surprisingly dumping gold as well Friday morning which should be noted.

Natgas daily - RSI is toppy and resistance is near. I'd be cautious if I were long here. I do NOT trust any counts on this one at all.

Oil - /CL daily - backed this one out as well. Yellow channel. pink channel and red support line. Gobs of support plus the 50ma. Yellow box is the retracement zone and thick yellow line is the 38% retrace.

EUR/JPY daily - broke green TL handily, but struggled to close under hte lower yellow wedge support. This thing almost puked all over the place Friday. Sign of things to come?

EUR/USD daily - Just riding the lower yellow trendline and the 50ma all the way up. I think the blue channel is more in play now than the yellow, but we'll have to see about that. If the 50ma goes this one will tank to the gray box.




Have a good night and GL this week. Happy holidays.

LOOK Into The Future(s).

Charts are from 11:20 est.

/NG daily - So, you tell me which gap it is after? The yellow box is the fib retracement for this last climb.

DXY 60m - She's got a spike! I'll get interested when that upper green TL goes down.Remember that gap analysis I spoke of today?

/YG - Mini gold 60m - Is that a H&S forming with a 1111 target? If not the retracement zone is the yellow box and the 38% retracement is 1104.You can see the set up for the breakdown I called, now can it get worse?

EUR/USD daily - Nice channel and riding a support line and at resistance. You see the fib retracement box just under support at 1.38. Other support at 1.43. This is an interesting set up.

EUR/JPY daily - Will the green line hold or will the wedge support be in play?





Nothing happening with the e-minis. Down 1.25.