Chartapalooza 08/24/12 Dollar, Oil, well .... Everything

I need to churn out some individual detailed reports on the below. I'll see if I can get to that next week. Let me know what you want to see.

Read 'em and weep -

Dollar - I suspect our fiat gets one last pop when the Euro fails. That will piss off uncle Benny, but that's too bad. He'll get his wishes of mega devaluation sooner than later as they MUST devalue to support the exponentially expanding debt of the country. A crash is coming but not till after the Euro failure, rush to safety (LMAO) pop I suspect the failing reserve currency gets. I still think you will live to see the dollar with a $4 handle. Dollar sits at channel support and multi-year s/r  at $81. That's a very important level.

Morning Chartapalooza 05/31/02 $SPX $Gold $ES $Silver $Oil $Dollar $EUR/USD

Let's chart 'em up and try to figure out what the heck is going on shall we -

Gold Daily - Busted LT white and yellow channel supports. Green channel down off the '11 top thru LT supports. Now in pink intermediate channel under blue s/r diag. $1567 is the major s/r point going back to '11. Breaking $1478 would be a big deal. Green channel support is currently near 1443 and falling.

Morning Charts 05/17/12 #SPX /ES

Denial (no, not that river in Egypt) is everywhere and the MSM cover up of the financial shell shocking events and turmoil around the globe right now is appalling. Thank goodness for the internet (while we still have it) and for those that actively report, research and share the truth. How else would we know the truth about just how bad the JPM losses are or that the bank runs in Greece and now Spain are very real?

Denial also happens with individual investors. Even STB hits a wall every now and then where the Rubicon is hard to cross. Reality bites now and it is going to get worse. Psychologically we crawl into our protective little shells and work to avoid the misery. Are we collectively ignoring the doomsday events we've all been cognizant of for years?

We've been so conditioned to expect the stick save and ramp. Markets are a bit confusing right now because the old 'tricks' that were guaranteed ramp starters like the FOMC minutes leaning towards easing or an LTRO3 discussion we had yesterday are not flaming the bull's fires anymore. Has reality sprung its trap. Is the realization that the euro zone and the euro experiment is really dying finally starting to sink in?

Shanky's Morning Chartapalooza 05/10/12 #SPX #ES #GOLD #OIL #DOLLAR #Silver #EUR/USD

Let's get it on! Listen to all Inc's ol school rap on the AD last night and now you gettin sum N.W.A style STB in da monin - hit it.

Gold - Blue channel down into the depths of support diagonals off the '08 lows. Better make a break north soon or hold 1569 cause the next stop will be 1470. No fret, just makes for better buying opp. Let it fall. Please fall. STB wants to gets mo gold at lower prices. It is the only thing worth owning these days (with a side of silver).

Morning Chartapalooza 05/08/12 #Gold #Oil #Dollar #EUR/USD #SPX $ES

No commentary today, just a bunch of charts. A major rant is coming soon. Let's just say I decided to stay quiet this morning cause I have nothing nice to say about anything.

Gold - All sorts of technical levels should be driving gold traders crazy right now (not to mention those pesky speculators).

First a monthly LT chart so you can see the where the white channel support that price is testing right now starts.

EUR/USD, Dollar, Gold, Oil Charts

EUR/USD -

Weekly - Note pink channel down. Green support is off 2002 lows, so that's major support.

Daily - Closer view of the near term channel into LT support.

Morning Market Summary and Charts 05/01/12 #SPX $ES

May Day - for those that do not know about May Day I suggest you read May Day - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia  "As Europe became Christianized the pagan holidays lost their religious character and either changed into popular secular celebrations, as with May Day, or were merged with or replaced by new Christian holidays as with Christmas, Easter, Pentecost and [[All Saint's Day][citation needed]]. In the twentieth century, many neopagans began reconstructing the old traditions and celebrating May Day as a pagan religious festival again."

So, we advanced from pagan celebrations to Christian ones. That is a bit symbolic of these times except we seem to be doing the reverse. Our government is truly corrupt and the police state is growing more each day stealing our freedoms one by one. We as sheeple appear to be less reverent than in the past now worshiping the golden idols of debt and credit.

We no longer primarily serve God. We serve ourselves in our quest for the easy life. Toil has been replaced by entitlement. It appears that the masses are more than willing to choose the easy route, entitlement, in exchange for loss of freedom.

Morning Market Commentary and Charts 04/23/12 #SPX $ES

OK, this is not good (if you are a bulltard). Pink support off the November lows has been breached and so has the recent blue bull trap/ bear flag channel. This appears to be a real break and not just some tail they are gonna throw thru support. As always, I will caution against the backtest of both breaks.

Morning Market Summary and charts 04/12/12 - $SPX $ES $Gold $Silver $Oil $Dollar

Let's make this very simple this morning - Last week we were not going to QE and the markets started to fall. Six days in a row and 70 SPX points later I guess that was all they wanted to see. Now we suddenly have Dudley Joins Yellen In Leaving QE Door Wide Open | ZeroHedge. Maybe they knew the jobs number was going to miss and Dudley was trying to goose the futures? I would not put it past them. Initial Jobless Claims Soar Past Expectations, Hit 380K, Highest Since January | ZeroHedge.

Either way the full court QE press is back on. Strangely the markets are not reacting as they should. With Yellen talking about taking ZIRP to 2015 (wasn't it just last August they moved that timetable to 2014?) the truth is becoming more clear. Things suck. How bad do they suck (or should I say how bad has the Bernank's liquidity reflation trade failed)? I suggest you read Presenting Economic Reality | ZeroHedge

Earnings season suck and I hate it. GOOG after the close today and JPM in the morning. That may keep market activity down as we wait on the numbers.

Commodities Charting Extravaganza! Gold, Silver, Oil, Gas Wheat, Corn and Many More

Bottom line, you need to know what is driving cost at the store and where those prices are likely headed. What's expensive and what's not? Look below to find out. (Oil, Gold and Silver are at the bottom)


Cocoa - So, why am I still like paying a gazillions dollars for my Snickers fix?

Cotton -

Morning Market Commentary and Charts 03/02/12 #SPX $ES

I don't have much to cover news wise this morning. The liquidity train in the EU pulled into the station and got a full tank and is ready to roll again.

Here is the scam, the fleecing, the theft in broad daylight that the banksters that hold the world hostage (cause they are the only ones that can print money) are pulling off - "roughly 800 European banks will bleed by €6 billion in the next year just to store their cash with the ECB." What Carry Trade? Euro Banks Deposit Entire LTRO 2 At ECB, Bring Total To Over $1 Trillion | ZeroHedge. So they print money from thin air to infuse an insolvent banking system only to immediately receive all of it back in deposit and collect 75 bps in the process - BRILLIANT. Where does the money come from to pay the loss on the carry trade? Your pocket and mine. That's fucked up and the sheeple of the world do nothing. that's even more fucked up.

Charting Light Sweet Crude and The Coming War

I thought with the recent surge in stock prices why not take a look at the correlated move in oil moving over $103? I guess the threat of war is a catalyst across all sectors. You know, one tide raises all ships kind of thing. Maybe the world's debt and credit issues worsening are the reasons for the market's advance today (that is a topic for another post).

I would not be doing this if oil was not at a technical point that did not matter (more on this below). I'm pretty sure none of this matters with the Iran situation following the Libya disruption, but you need to see what's happening in the charts.

Adding to the "why do this post when technically nothing matters" theme, I believe that oil has become one of the most manipulated commodities on the planet making millions for the likes of JPM, GS and the oil conglomerates. Bottom line is (thinking realistically and with some sort of common sense) it makes no sense with the global economic slowdown and consumption that oil is priced anywhere near these levels. Peak oil fears? That is an argument for another post.

Morning Post 10/20/11, SPX, Oil, Gold, Silver, AUD, EUR, UDS, JPY

OK - Let's go over this one last time for you Modern Economics 101 students - Greece can't afford jack shit and are so in debt they can't pay back what they owe. How do you solve this problem? You simply give them more money. Got it? You may be tested on this later, so I wanted to make sure you understood this.

Today you simply keep pumping money into the system to keep it alive. Fix the issue? Fuck no! That would be to friggin hard and cost to many politicians their jobs.  You do what you can to keep it alive for as long as possible and when it finally implodes you blame it on someone else and say that no one could have seen the problems coming. 

You do realize that greeting Greece out of trouble this time will only keep them alive for another month or two. Rinse/repeat. At some point the repeat part of that statement will not occur. 

Morning Post 10/12/11, SPX, Oil

STB in the not to distant past railed on the municipal crisis that is coming. It has been some time since STB has addressed this issue, but STB has not forgotten it. "We are confident the spinmasters will spin the first major domino in the muni crisis as bullish: after all it "removes uncertainty." Bloomberg reports that "The city of Harrisburg, Pennsylvania, facing a state takeover of its finances, filed for bankruptcy protection following a vote by the City Council," It Begins: Harrisburg Files For Bankruptcy Protection | ZeroHedge

It will not be long till more municipalities follow, then the states have to pick up the slack. this will not be possible. Welcome to the beginning of the end. Just one domino is all it takes. Several other smaller munis have failed under the radar, but this is the first sizable one to go. Discussing state budgets with a good friend the problems facing them in 2012 will be very pressing. Income is way down and deeper cuts in state budgets are coming. A rash of muni crashes is something the states can not handle and something the federal government will not even begin to touch.

Morning Post 10/04/11, SPX, AUD, EUR, JPY, Gold, Oil, USD

"Overnight saw credit markets crushed overseas in Australia and Asia,
Europe continue to sink into the abyss and now pre-market equities in
the US are showing serious weakness with no sign of a bounce." FINal(er) Countdown | ZeroHedge

I'm not sure how long I have been telling you i is all about EU liquidity, but it has been a while. Nothing works without lubrication. Friction is bad. European Liquidity Update: Horrible And Getting Worse | ZeroHedge

I do not know about you, but I think there will be a tradeable event at 10:00 when Helicopter Ben speaks. I HIGHLY suggest you watch this - Bernanke Testifies To The Joint Economic Committee; And The Balance Of D.C. Theater For The Week | ZeroHedge

FX Chartapalooza Copper, Silver, Gold, Dollar, Oil, AUD, EUR, USD, JPY, CHF

Don't forget to vote in the new poll ======>

I don't so these all that often, bus since I am tired of talking about all the downgrades and lies about salvation, and since I have not covered most below in some time ..........

Note - all the below should scare the hell out of you (and I am not including the markets). This looks like epic collapse and no stick save option is available.

Welcome to Chartapalooza!

/dx - US dollar - Breaking out above long term down trend. After a 40% devaluation off the 2001 highs you had to figure a rally would have to occur at some point, right? How great is the fear around the globe right now? Well, if they are flocking to the greatest fiat on the planet, that would conclude your lesson on how this global economy is the greatest farce ever manufactured. $81 and $88 are the best two targets here if this improbable run can continue.

Morning Post

I took nothing away from the populist cheer leading effort last night. Nothing new or surprising. More stuff today on the earnings calendar. Jobless report was another stunner IMO. While we are not losing jobs at an increasing rate anymore, we're still dumping over 400k per reporting period. Think about that number for a minute. Remember the first time the number climbed above 300k? That was bad, now 400k+ is just ho hum. Don't worry, the market will accept this as good news most likely.

E-mini 60m - It is either a channel or an unformed wedge. Looks to me like the minis have broken a downtrend after tagging supports at 1081 and meeting the lower market support line (green). The question is whether this is an ABC corrective or something larger. Form and the indicators will tell us that, so be patient while the market climbs here. 1111 and 1127 are the two resistance levels I see on the minis. Watch that possible upper channel line.

SPX Daily - Back inside the lower BB after tagging the red support line and making a nice retracement of the move off of 1028. 1114 is the 50ma, support and the 50% retracement sit near there as well. If we have completed a 5 and this is a corrective that would be a likely area for top. 1131 is another good spot that may be attainable. With the bull cross on S Sto, MACD hist reversing, CCI divergence and RSI possibly getting in the game there is a chance for stronger upside from these oversold levels. The 60m chart had some nice divergences coming into yesterday. I will note that ADX is not participating yet.

Gold Daily - This chart goes back to the '08 low of 688. IMO that is a nice channel up (gray). the green channel is diving into the lower gray support line, the 38% retracement (yellow line) and the sky blue resistance/support line. This is massive support IMO coming soon. If that cracks it is all over but the crying. If it holds the possibility of a pop back to 1227 is pretty good. Daily indicators say oversold and support will hold. Weekly indicators say more pain to come. 1082 is pretty good support here. 1066 to 1068 should be it near term.



Dollar - Movin on up. Weekly chart says it can run some more, but it is getting NT toppy. My target remains 89 to complete what I think is an ABC corrective before much further weakness. The EWT people see a super strong 5 wave move here. It is possible if there is a flight to safety (LOL). I say currency devaluation is the only game in town. While I have speculated the dollar with a 4 handle I think $68 is looking better. No, I'm not kidding.Now, that may be a few years off tough. We'll have to see.

Oil - Continues to roll over from overbought conditions. After nearly three weeks of falling is it time to stop? I think so. Take a look at this daily chart. Support at the lower yellow channel TL and the indicators looking to turn. S Sto bull cross. MACD hist turning up and RSI with a small divergence. If this lower channel line should crack, the 38% retracement lies at 65, so that would be the max NT.





Natgas - Cracked the support line I have been speaking of for a few weeks and took out a support level as well. 38% retracement is $4.67. The 50% support at 4.24 looks the best right now as there is a support level and gap there as well. EIA NATGAS report at 10:30 today.

Enough for now. GL out there. I'm log SSO and looking to add some QID and TNA at appropriate spots.

I Don't See Any Problems. Do You?

It is perfectly normal for the SPX not to react at all to pretty severe moves in the dollar, gold, oil and the 10 year treasury. Perfectly normal. Nothing to see here. Move along.

Morning Post

E-minis set new high last night to catch up with everyone else. The RUT finally caught up with everyone else in new high land. After lagging horribly coming into December, down the stretch they came after turn four and RUT hit the turbo boost and appears to want to pass everyone in the final quarter mile. The consensus appears to want everyone to end the year in high style.

Looking at SPX compared to the dollar, oil, TNX and gold here. SPX holds it range and its high as everything else appears to be making the necessary adjustments to their unrealistic conditions.

The VIX daily decided to (not surprisingly) set a new low yesterday. I'm not really sure what to say other than the fear index is not accurately describing the fear that should be evident. IMO this chart best describes the fantasy land scenario we are experiencing now. Combine this with the overall bullish sentiment and you get the recipe for the much anticipated impending correction.







I have no idea what to expect or to call at this time with the SPX range bound, slightly setting a new high yesterday (my upper range all along was 1050 to 1121), meeting resistance at the upper BB and the daily RSI not making any decisive moves. I'm on the sidelines and enjoying the holidays. I'm not ruling out the possibility of anything up or down right now. I'm seeing counts that have tops set or being set and some with a good bit of upside to them. I don't trust any of the counts right now (I don't trust anything right now actually). My suggestion is to wait for the market to come to you. If there is a decisive break north, then 1214 is my target area. If there is a decisive break down, let's watch the form and see what it has to offer. I'm sticking to my call all along that it will take an "external event" to rip this market from Ben, Timmuhh and the gang. Will a big hedge fund or some mutual funds blink before year end in this game of high stakes chicken they are playing or will they take this thru the first quarter earnings period?

Happy holidays and good luck.

Black Gold, Texas Tea - (Oil That Is)

I thought I would sling out a $WTIC chart of light sweet crude for you to see. Why? I think it could be nearing a turning point and you may want to run out and fill up the SUV first. Save some cash before Xmas. Call it my present to you. (that is of course if the price of gas ever adjusts down appropriately)

$WTIC daily - Is it the blue channel support or the pink dashed TL or is it a backtest of the last triangle top TL? The stopping forces now are the completed 62% retracement, the blownout lower BB, the RSI5 bottoming out and the pink LT TL being met. The downward move still has some legs if you look at the lacking divergence in RSI and that it has some room to fall still. S Sto and CCI still have some room to run as well.

Bottom line is that it looks like oil will be bottoming soon. The big question is what is to come? Is this the long lost 5th wave up? Will it be the first corrective of a larger fall? I think oil has topped or has limited upside from here (barring a war). I am still drawn to the lower black TL as a target. I just like where it breaches the gray box/retracement zone. That may be a bit much to ask now, but if we should have some difficult economic news (LOL - that was a joke - who would expect any bad economic news?), who knows? GL out there!