Morning Post

For those of you wondering (or frustrated) about manipulation, Zero Hedge posted Rumor Versus Fact: An Insider's Report On A Manipulated Market last night. The post (you would have thought I had written it) has, "In the early afternoon it hit like a mad PPT trader masquerading as a legitimate agent of the NY Federal Reserve: MASSIVE BUYING!  Within minutes the S&P500 along with the other major markets took flight and quickly rallied 1%.  Had a rate cut followed the recent rate hike?  Was the recent horrific economic data revised by the BS artists at the BLS?  Nope – the market took off because it was rumored that AAPL would split its stock 4:1.  Yep.  A rumor.  A *^%$#!G rumor!  About 30-minutes after the short covering carnage started AAPL denied the story…and the market proceeded to ADD to its gains." You know it was not me because I freely use appropriate language where required.

Another finely written point (among many) was, "The Durable Goods report got major headlines from the Lame Stream Media about how bullish the number was.  This is only the case for the headline number.  Responsible for the good headline number was a 126% increase in civilian aircraft orders (these orders can be cancelled, by the way).  Outside of transportation, orders fell 0.6%. Core capital equipment and machinery orders dropped 2.9% and 9.7%, respectively, which are the important ones that determine the direction of the economy.  For all of 2009, durable goods fell a record 20%.  But don’t worry, it “could have” been worse."

You see folks I warn you constantly that the market is rigged, and that the MSM pumps up the volume endlessly for the boys on Wall St. to sell their wares to as many unsuspecting/ignorant/uneducated investors as possible. It is nice to see some backup to verify my constant rants on the subject. Want to know How Goldman Prevented Today's Market Rout And Made A Quick $3 Million In The Process? It is almost surreal. 

Given all the above it is any wonder I am struggling with the Morning Post today? I got all excited about the turn on the minis near 1084 yesterday after looking for 1083. (Now, why it turned there is another story.) I was pumped about the possibility of my 5.3.5 starting to possibly come home having the 3 complete and what looks like a 1 moving up. After reading the headlines and digesting some more reality (gotta take that in small doses these days), and with the market in a spot where 2 of 1 could be over or the final 5 up could be happening, I have to say that I am in pure wait and see mode on a Friday. My suggestion. Take the day off but keep one eye on the markets just in case. Cash is king right now. 


SPX 60m - Several options. 1)I had previously mentioned the possibility of the lower triangle support line being reset lower and a move to E may be it. 2) If the triangle is the wrong call and the 5.3.5 is right, care to do the math where C=A? You guessed it 1150. Double top would be pretty. 3) Finally is 2 completed and we're headed south for good like we should be and 3 of 1 is here? Thus the confusion. Yesterday was a great example of why short term gambling in this market is a fools game especially in an unpredictable 2 or 4 wave in a manipulated bullshit market. To add to the confusion, the indicators are all over the place, no clear trend is established and the VIX, while sitting on support, looks weak to me. Thus, sit it out. Take the day off.

Putting it all in one place. SPX and oil being stubborn ignoring the dollars rise. Has the dollar completed a measured corrective ABC and is not in the bull mode the EWT people think? Something has to give here as normal correlations are getting a little screwed up (as should be expected in a global financial crisis with rigged markets). This is adding to my lack of conviction on market direction.

I'm on the sidelines unless we get some large move south confirming the top of 2 is in. Enjoy your weekend!

Oh, and why am I not commenting on GDP? Well, you do the math compared to durable goods orders yesterday and to housing starts and tell me if it is remotely accurate or not? Just more BS from the BLS. 

GL!

Morning Post

E-minis set new high last night to catch up with everyone else. The RUT finally caught up with everyone else in new high land. After lagging horribly coming into December, down the stretch they came after turn four and RUT hit the turbo boost and appears to want to pass everyone in the final quarter mile. The consensus appears to want everyone to end the year in high style.

Looking at SPX compared to the dollar, oil, TNX and gold here. SPX holds it range and its high as everything else appears to be making the necessary adjustments to their unrealistic conditions.

The VIX daily decided to (not surprisingly) set a new low yesterday. I'm not really sure what to say other than the fear index is not accurately describing the fear that should be evident. IMO this chart best describes the fantasy land scenario we are experiencing now. Combine this with the overall bullish sentiment and you get the recipe for the much anticipated impending correction.







I have no idea what to expect or to call at this time with the SPX range bound, slightly setting a new high yesterday (my upper range all along was 1050 to 1121), meeting resistance at the upper BB and the daily RSI not making any decisive moves. I'm on the sidelines and enjoying the holidays. I'm not ruling out the possibility of anything up or down right now. I'm seeing counts that have tops set or being set and some with a good bit of upside to them. I don't trust any of the counts right now (I don't trust anything right now actually). My suggestion is to wait for the market to come to you. If there is a decisive break north, then 1214 is my target area. If there is a decisive break down, let's watch the form and see what it has to offer. I'm sticking to my call all along that it will take an "external event" to rip this market from Ben, Timmuhh and the gang. Will a big hedge fund or some mutual funds blink before year end in this game of high stakes chicken they are playing or will they take this thru the first quarter earnings period?

Happy holidays and good luck.