Chartapalooza 08/24/12 Dollar, Oil, well .... Everything

I need to churn out some individual detailed reports on the below. I'll see if I can get to that next week. Let me know what you want to see.

Read 'em and weep -

Dollar - I suspect our fiat gets one last pop when the Euro fails. That will piss off uncle Benny, but that's too bad. He'll get his wishes of mega devaluation sooner than later as they MUST devalue to support the exponentially expanding debt of the country. A crash is coming but not till after the Euro failure, rush to safety (LMAO) pop I suspect the failing reserve currency gets. I still think you will live to see the dollar with a $4 handle. Dollar sits at channel support and multi-year s/r  at $81. That's a very important level.

Morning Post 07/19/12 $SPX $ES

Let's not spend a lot of time today focusing on the unadulterated manipulation of the financial markets, the criminality that encompasses that same system and governments around the globe or the war monger's increasing beat of their drum.

The charts are starting to point to another major move again.

Copper - This head and shoulders (bearish formation) is unmistakable. 

Morning Chartapalooza 05/31/02 $SPX $Gold $ES $Silver $Oil $Dollar $EUR/USD

Let's chart 'em up and try to figure out what the heck is going on shall we -

Gold Daily - Busted LT white and yellow channel supports. Green channel down off the '11 top thru LT supports. Now in pink intermediate channel under blue s/r diag. $1567 is the major s/r point going back to '11. Breaking $1478 would be a big deal. Green channel support is currently near 1443 and falling.

Morning Chartapalooza 05/24/12 $SPX $ES

Cause the news is horroble across the board and the markets are obviously in 'anticipate more easing' mode (price should be down three times what is is up right now) I'm just gonna sling some charts at you this morning. If you have any questions about 'easing mode' see the AD last night. that will explain everything. I do recommend you read Welcome To Chez Central Planner: Presenting The Complete Fed/ECB Response Menu | ZeroHedge if you have any interest in understanding the plethora of ways the Fed/ECB can try and wiggle their way out of most any situation (till they can't).

Minis 30m - Backtesting the yellow wedge and meeting green resistance off the 1413 top (not anywhere near the 1420 resistance diag that is near 1394). The red diagonal that is acting as a support area here is the old upper market resistance diag off the 2007 and 2011 tops. The backtest occurring here is a major support play and if this goes significantly then real downside action will be coming. Upside 1341 is my first major resistance.

Dollar - Yellow LT channel support held and the rally is on channeling up thru LT resistance near $81 in a real power play. It is amazing a worthless piece of paper (fiat) is something that gains strength in the most dire times. Just follow the greeen channel for now. I'll do a dollar post next week or you can see Shanky Does the Dollar for a more historical perspective. 

EUR/USD - Pink falling channel/wedge cracking MAJOR support is a MAJOR deal. The busted green support goes back to the '02 lows. The 1.25 area has been major support/resistance since '98. This crack is a big big deal. Most know I have had a 1.16 target for well over a year now. Sadly if it gets there that may not even stop it. I'll do a new EUR/USD post next week. See Shanky Does the EUR/USD for a more historical perspective.

Oil - For those wondering why I have been looking to $85 for some time now here is your reason. The green support diag is off the '08 lows and the $85 number is key for several other economic reasons. $74 is major s/r going back to '05. Watch that level carefully if things start to get fugly.

Gold - Pink channel down thru yellow and white LT support is a major breakdown technically that people don't want to see. 1523 s/r matches the December lows after the crash off the 1927 top. This is a pretty major support point.

Silver - After spiking to near $50 the fall has been brutal, but there is hope for the silver bulls here as yellow support off the '08 lows is mere points away now. Green channel resistance and yellow support are pinching price here and something will have to give between now and August. Throw in $27.50 support and you get a real sticking point for this PM. Note that gold has already taken out this yellow LT support.

UST 10yr  - This chart really says it all - No commentary is necessary.

SPX Holiday Chart - How does the SPX perform rolling into a holiday weekend? Well here is your road map. Draw your own conclusions. Basically it appears on the surface that price more than likely will ramp into a holiday weekend during a bull run and there is no effect in a bear run. Memorial day, Labor Day, 4th of July and Christmas are on the chart.

The sad news is I blew up my FOMC meeting chart yesterday and will have to rebuild that beauty. Expect to see that soon.

GL and GB!

Morning Charts 05/17/12 #SPX /ES

Denial (no, not that river in Egypt) is everywhere and the MSM cover up of the financial shell shocking events and turmoil around the globe right now is appalling. Thank goodness for the internet (while we still have it) and for those that actively report, research and share the truth. How else would we know the truth about just how bad the JPM losses are or that the bank runs in Greece and now Spain are very real?

Denial also happens with individual investors. Even STB hits a wall every now and then where the Rubicon is hard to cross. Reality bites now and it is going to get worse. Psychologically we crawl into our protective little shells and work to avoid the misery. Are we collectively ignoring the doomsday events we've all been cognizant of for years?

We've been so conditioned to expect the stick save and ramp. Markets are a bit confusing right now because the old 'tricks' that were guaranteed ramp starters like the FOMC minutes leaning towards easing or an LTRO3 discussion we had yesterday are not flaming the bull's fires anymore. Has reality sprung its trap. Is the realization that the euro zone and the euro experiment is really dying finally starting to sink in?

Morning Charts 05/16/12 #SPX $ES

Not much to say other than everyone is waiting to see if the EU is going to implode and then if the ECB/Fed is going to do anything about it. Everyone is looking for the backstop to magically appear as it always does in these times. The only thing different this time is there appears to much more certainty that an event will happen. It is that deer in the headlights moment where everyone is frozen and fear is real (but not showing in market actions as the Fed/PPT still manage to keep a bid out there at the right price and the right time).

EUR/USD - Critical level is an understatement. Must stick save here is a no brainer. The proverbial line in the sand is that green support diagonal which has held the major lows since 2002. Price came within .002 points from tagging it last night and that may have been it. It should take something more than news or rumors to crack this point. If this goes it should be a duck and cover moment. My technical read of this is that we experienced either a real breakdown and much worse is to come or this was a blow off excessive move bottom that is about to bounce back possibly as high as to close the second gap near 1.30.

Shanky Does the Dollar

Dollar Monthly - The range from $80 to $81 is key. Note that from 1992 thru 2007 the dollar stayed above this point. Now price is wedging (green) with that level at the heart of the wedge.

Morning Charts 05/11/12 #SPX #ES

Running a bit late this AM ,sorry. If I don't include charts you want to see in the post, please ask in the commentary and I will cue you up whatever you want to see. My stockcharts issues have been cleared up. Thanks for all the notes and support on that issue. Nice to know so many care and are watching.

Well, JPM slips, no biggie. My take on it - When they control and operate in an unregulated world and there is a proven US taxpayer backstop for any mistake (no matter how big) who gives a crap how many billions you lose? You can read the posts on ZH for the details.

Minis 30m - Struggling for form down here at 1340 support. Range bound working   off overbought conditions and the dailys especially forming pos divergences. Market has every right to bust support and make the next move to 1300/1295 area, but will they allow it? I bet the EWT folks are having a blast counting this mess.

Shanky's Morning Chartapalooza 05/10/12 #SPX #ES #GOLD #OIL #DOLLAR #Silver #EUR/USD

Let's get it on! Listen to all Inc's ol school rap on the AD last night and now you gettin sum N.W.A style STB in da monin - hit it.

Gold - Blue channel down into the depths of support diagonals off the '08 lows. Better make a break north soon or hold 1569 cause the next stop will be 1470. No fret, just makes for better buying opp. Let it fall. Please fall. STB wants to gets mo gold at lower prices. It is the only thing worth owning these days (with a side of silver).

Morning Chartapalooza 05/08/12 #Gold #Oil #Dollar #EUR/USD #SPX $ES

No commentary today, just a bunch of charts. A major rant is coming soon. Let's just say I decided to stay quiet this morning cause I have nothing nice to say about anything.

Gold - All sorts of technical levels should be driving gold traders crazy right now (not to mention those pesky speculators).

First a monthly LT chart so you can see the where the white channel support that price is testing right now starts.

EUR/USD, Dollar, Gold, Oil Charts

EUR/USD -

Weekly - Note pink channel down. Green support is off 2002 lows, so that's major support.

Daily - Closer view of the near term channel into LT support.

Morning Market Summary and charts 04/12/12 - $SPX $ES $Gold $Silver $Oil $Dollar

Let's make this very simple this morning - Last week we were not going to QE and the markets started to fall. Six days in a row and 70 SPX points later I guess that was all they wanted to see. Now we suddenly have Dudley Joins Yellen In Leaving QE Door Wide Open | ZeroHedge. Maybe they knew the jobs number was going to miss and Dudley was trying to goose the futures? I would not put it past them. Initial Jobless Claims Soar Past Expectations, Hit 380K, Highest Since January | ZeroHedge.

Either way the full court QE press is back on. Strangely the markets are not reacting as they should. With Yellen talking about taking ZIRP to 2015 (wasn't it just last August they moved that timetable to 2014?) the truth is becoming more clear. Things suck. How bad do they suck (or should I say how bad has the Bernank's liquidity reflation trade failed)? I suggest you read Presenting Economic Reality | ZeroHedge

Earnings season suck and I hate it. GOOG after the close today and JPM in the morning. That may keep market activity down as we wait on the numbers.

Morning Market Commentary and Charts 03/02/12 #SPX $ES

I don't have much to cover news wise this morning. The liquidity train in the EU pulled into the station and got a full tank and is ready to roll again.

Here is the scam, the fleecing, the theft in broad daylight that the banksters that hold the world hostage (cause they are the only ones that can print money) are pulling off - "roughly 800 European banks will bleed by €6 billion in the next year just to store their cash with the ECB." What Carry Trade? Euro Banks Deposit Entire LTRO 2 At ECB, Bring Total To Over $1 Trillion | ZeroHedge. So they print money from thin air to infuse an insolvent banking system only to immediately receive all of it back in deposit and collect 75 bps in the process - BRILLIANT. Where does the money come from to pay the loss on the carry trade? Your pocket and mine. That's fucked up and the sheeple of the world do nothing. that's even more fucked up.

Morning Market Commentary and Charts 02/29/12 $ES #SPX #EUR/USD #Gas

So what we get drunk. So what we don't sleep. So what we go out. That's how its supposed to be living young and wild and free. I'm tempted to rewrite that song and relate it to the financial crisis. Should not be too hard. Pretty much nails the Keynsian mantra and the life we live under the Fed today.

EUR/USD - Just one massive green rising (bearish) wedge.

FX Chartapalooza Copper, Silver, Gold, Dollar, Oil, AUD, EUR, USD, JPY, CHF

Don't forget to vote in the new poll ======>

I don't so these all that often, bus since I am tired of talking about all the downgrades and lies about salvation, and since I have not covered most below in some time ..........

Note - all the below should scare the hell out of you (and I am not including the markets). This looks like epic collapse and no stick save option is available.

Welcome to Chartapalooza!

/dx - US dollar - Breaking out above long term down trend. After a 40% devaluation off the 2001 highs you had to figure a rally would have to occur at some point, right? How great is the fear around the globe right now? Well, if they are flocking to the greatest fiat on the planet, that would conclude your lesson on how this global economy is the greatest farce ever manufactured. $81 and $88 are the best two targets here if this improbable run can continue.

I Don't See Any Problems. Do You?

It is perfectly normal for the SPX not to react at all to pretty severe moves in the dollar, gold, oil and the 10 year treasury. Perfectly normal. Nothing to see here. Move along.

Morning Post

E-minis set new high last night to catch up with everyone else. The RUT finally caught up with everyone else in new high land. After lagging horribly coming into December, down the stretch they came after turn four and RUT hit the turbo boost and appears to want to pass everyone in the final quarter mile. The consensus appears to want everyone to end the year in high style.

Looking at SPX compared to the dollar, oil, TNX and gold here. SPX holds it range and its high as everything else appears to be making the necessary adjustments to their unrealistic conditions.

The VIX daily decided to (not surprisingly) set a new low yesterday. I'm not really sure what to say other than the fear index is not accurately describing the fear that should be evident. IMO this chart best describes the fantasy land scenario we are experiencing now. Combine this with the overall bullish sentiment and you get the recipe for the much anticipated impending correction.







I have no idea what to expect or to call at this time with the SPX range bound, slightly setting a new high yesterday (my upper range all along was 1050 to 1121), meeting resistance at the upper BB and the daily RSI not making any decisive moves. I'm on the sidelines and enjoying the holidays. I'm not ruling out the possibility of anything up or down right now. I'm seeing counts that have tops set or being set and some with a good bit of upside to them. I don't trust any of the counts right now (I don't trust anything right now actually). My suggestion is to wait for the market to come to you. If there is a decisive break north, then 1214 is my target area. If there is a decisive break down, let's watch the form and see what it has to offer. I'm sticking to my call all along that it will take an "external event" to rip this market from Ben, Timmuhh and the gang. Will a big hedge fund or some mutual funds blink before year end in this game of high stakes chicken they are playing or will they take this thru the first quarter earnings period?

Happy holidays and good luck.

The Dollar and The SPX

Rorschach Failed post (revisited)

If the SPX lets go like it should ......

Look At The Daily SPX And All That Support

Here is the glaring thing that stands out to me and says something has got to give very soon. The Bollinger band width and the continuing consolidation. 

The Bollinger Bands operate as a good wrapper confining the markets moves to the specific range. Stockcharts defines Bollinger Bands: An indicator that allows users to compare volatility and relative price levels over a period of time. It consists of three bands designed to encompass the majority of a security's price action. Prices will often meet resistance at the upper band and support at the lower band. See ChartSchool article on Bollinger Bands.

Currently the width of the BB's on the daily chart are an extremely low 32 and dropping like thy have not in a long time. The upper BB is just now showing back up on this chart and is at 1116.97 (it stopped the market at 1119 on Friday) and the lower is at 1084.79. Now, the BB 20ma is at 1100.88 which means price is trading in a 16 point window between the upper BB and the BB 20ma. That is as narrow as I can remember.

A narrow BB is a signal that volatility should be coming soon.Unfortunately all the volatility recently associated with narrowing BB's has been to the upside. What will make this time different and cause volatility to spike down rather than up? To keep it brief (and you will see in more detail in posts to come), the dollar may have bottomed and the horrifically overbought indicators with the massive divergences to price should be to much for the market to overcome.

This top has drawn out like no other in the recent C leg run up. Most tops have averaged 7 to 9 days before any sort of correction (see blue boxes). Well, guess what? No correction this time and this top is now on its 20th day. That is unprecidented for this run off of the 667 bottom. The point of recognition is near as the bulls and bears werstle in this low volume arena. The shorts have all been squeezed and the bulls are out of buying power (and upgrades, liquidity, and all other sorts of tricks). I believe you are witnessing a top being set. The only other option is this is a Rectangle Continuation pattern. Which I absolutely hate the idea of, but it is worth mentioning as any break to the upside of any significance (as unbelievable and undeserved as it would be) could lead to much higher highs no matter what the indicators say.

Lets look at all that support in detail since I think we're gonna drop soon.

BB20ma - 1100

Lower BB10848

38% fib off of 1030 low - 1085

50ma - 1079

50 to 62% fibs off of 1030 low - 1074-1064

Lower Trendline - 1055ish

38% fib off of 869 low - 1023

gap - 1018

50 to 62% fib off of 869 low - 994 - 964

The previous lowas at 1030/1020/991/979

Gap 910

Last major low 869

That is a whole lot of junk to get thru so calling places to stop may be difficult with any precision cause there will be so many options. When it get's turned I'll keep you updated on important targets. The main thing to take from this post is the width of the BB's. Keep a close eye on them.

GL and happy holidays!

Morning Post

Short post this morning - I'll just say look for am impending breakout or breakdown of the dollar. Tony C once told me the descending triangle was not a formation for a reversal. I proved him wrong then and there is a chance it will break up here as well. Then again, most are anticipating a continuation move south. To argue against the continuation at this time, the bottoming of a 5 wave formation, the oversold indicators, the break and back test of the LT down trend line (pink) and this formation is different of any corrective since the top. To argue for more downside it is simple, Helicopter Ben and the manipulation all in the name of "saving the country" (I mean Wall Street riches).

It is quite possible this is the E run down of the A-E formation and the bottom could happen this week. The formation ends by December 14th.This all assists in pointing to a possible top of P2 here or very soon.

DXY 60m long term  -

 DXY short term - see yellow triangle.