E-minis Now (And Some Long Term Stuff - Call It A Chart-o-rama)

/ES - Daily - Blue wedge is the P2 bull market rising wedge that price is obeying. Black TL coming down is the bear market top line. Pink is the old gap from 1107 tp 1109 that seems to be the resistance point. Green is the new support line IMO. I hate the look of that hook up in the indicators that stopped dead what should have been a good run to the bottom for the indicators (can you say PPT?). E-minis within one half of a point of a double top (or new high) this hour.

/ES 60m - See the action in the blue wedge and resistance at the pink line. 60m indicators are topping here. That combined with the resistance and double top might be cause for a reversal. Of course the dailys will have to whipsaw for this to happen.

/ES weekly so you can see the bigger picture. I do not (as a bear) like that busted divergence line on the RSI. I believe P3 begins at or near the break of the gray trendline below RSI.Notice how overbought the weekly indicators are. It is only a matter of time before they let go. Looks like MACD will be the most reliable indicator.

DXY weekly - So what is supposed to happen when a falling wedge ends and the indicators are all oversold and have been for months? LOL, this chart looks like UNG - that's not all that funny when you think about it.

A picture tells 1,000 words. What happens when the dollar falls? That would be TNX, SPX, Oil and Gold up and dollar down. Hmmm....you think the inverse is true? Watch for a crack in that 40ma.

 

Want to see a nasty divergence? Look at RSI in this SPX yearly chart. Uh, yup, no one saw this fall coming. LOL. Now, is that a yearly hammer bouncing off of support and the 20ma? Not sure. Those indicators look like crap. MACD just now getting the bear cross from the run up since 1980. It's got a little steam to blow off yet. This is NOT a pretty chart if you are a bull.Dig where that lower BB is. Ouchie!

Now, before you bears start jumping around and ripping your clothes off in a fit of joy after looking at that last chart (GWLK -pls send photos this comment does not apply to you), you have to survive this next one - SPX Monthly. Those indicators need some work to turn. The weeklys are set to help with this process.






No post tonight as I will be holding up street signs again and then coaching basketball and finally decorating a tree - then sleeping. I might get the Look Into The Futures post done. Thanks for the views and happy holidays.

Morning Post

Short post this morning - I'll just say look for am impending breakout or breakdown of the dollar. Tony C once told me the descending triangle was not a formation for a reversal. I proved him wrong then and there is a chance it will break up here as well. Then again, most are anticipating a continuation move south. To argue against the continuation at this time, the bottoming of a 5 wave formation, the oversold indicators, the break and back test of the LT down trend line (pink) and this formation is different of any corrective since the top. To argue for more downside it is simple, Helicopter Ben and the manipulation all in the name of "saving the country" (I mean Wall Street riches).

It is quite possible this is the E run down of the A-E formation and the bottom could happen this week. The formation ends by December 14th.This all assists in pointing to a possible top of P2 here or very soon.

DXY 60m long term  -

 DXY short term - see yellow triangle.

Morning Post (2) - The DOLLAR

UPDATE - I totally changed this post. 

OK, second grade Thanksgiving play is in the books and I will not get the pleasure of seeing another one of those for a long time. This is a time of year for reflection and I imagine you will get some passionate posts out of me as we have a lot to be thankful for, but unfortunately we need more prayers now more than anything.

First lets be thankful for the PPT! ICE Cancels DXY Trades After "Impossible" Action Moves Index 9% Higher, $ Plunge Enforcement Team Arrives At Crime Scene  Leave it to our pals at Zero Hedge to get he mornings scoop on the action. "The dollar "plunge enforcement team" has been promptly woken up from its Larry Summerseqsue narcolpetic slumber and will rectify any and all attempts at a returns to fair market value." Please read the post as this sort of action directly impacts your trading day (and future). To those of you that wonder why I am on the manipulation train and can't call a top and constantly refer to the fact that "they" can not let the market fall yet, consider this exhibit 1,250,235 of the reasons I think along such lines. At this juncture of the crisis, I would not take this story lightly and use it to read into possible actions to come. I ask myself, "Did someone 'in the know' make a play that was premature trying to front run something?"



DXY daily - OK, let's back up a little and get the 1,000 foot view. The reason I'm showing this is the pink and green trendlines. Pay attention to these major trendlines as they work thru the next two charts.

DXY daily - See the pink and green trendlines? See the resistance (pink) and then the LAUNCH to the yellow, resistance (red vertical) and green? 

DXY daily - See the trendlines? Is the yellow falling wedge still in play with this being the D touch and down for E?

By no means should you consider the lower pink trendline out of play.

I focus on the dollar so much because it is driving everything IMO. A weak dollar cures a lot of ills. As you knnow I pay attention to a lot of things, but this is the leader of all markets right now. More to come today. 

Have a good one and GL out there.

Can The Dollar Push Thru?

1:20 UPDATE: SPX Dollar Chart - See the pink support lines on the dollar? Also all the massive divergences on the indicators.

Chart better viewed HERE

 

12:30 UPDATE: Testing support. 60m indicators pushing hard south, but dailys are strong north. Not sure if it breaks out here or continues to consolidate in the yellow wedge.

DXY 60m - those trendlines and the 60m indicators say this may be it. Sure would make a nice descending triangle.

DXY daily - says she runs to the upper trendline based on the indicators, the strong move and the divergence under RSI. NOW - WHAT I WANT YOU TO NOTICE is look at all the big green candles and the days after - 4 have gaps down and one a gap up - the one with a gap up is a set up very similar to this with MACD and S Sto bull cross following a divergence in RSI. I do not expect the upper yellow TL to go at this time. If it does the P3 chatter will be flying.

Morning Post

Oh lawdy, look at that DXY run. The only question is at which trendline does it stop? We have had 8 days in the blue box on my SPX daily chart and the avg top has taken 7 to 9 days. I mentioned yesterday that gold was toppy. That last hourly bullish candle on the 60m yesterday that fooled most will be gobbled up at the open this am by some gapage down. Somewhere near 1065 on the minis and the SPX is what I am seeing for now. That number will have to be refined, but it is what I see now. Note the dollar climbs fast and falls slow.

e-mini 60m - Breaking trendline and falling off of resistance. the only caution i see is the 60m indicators are bottoming while the dailys are topping. the daily RSI just topped its divergence trendline and is reversing south now and it appears barring a whipsaw a bear cross on S Sto will happen today.

$DXY 60m - How bout that pop last night. Someone almost called the dxy breakout yesterday to the minute, not sure who that was? Which trendline does it stop at pink or yellow? Based on the indicators of the major indexes I'm guessing yellow as they let the dollar out to run in the yard before putting it back in the dog house.Note again the rapid climbs and the slow falls in the swings.

SPX daily - Will the blue box theory hold? MACD hist has turned (again) and RSI appears weak. S Sto is embedded and at top range levels.

EUR/JPY - this chart needs to be seen.  Sho looks like a pop is in order if you ask me. If the green and yellow TL support crack then the channel is toast and the fall begins.I almost want to call this the end of a B wave of a LARGE ABC corrective. If I am right it tops in the 152 to 155 range.When this puppy hits the upper trendline Mr. Toppy will be in the house IMO.

EUR/USD weekly - The weekly chart emphasizes just how overbought and tired this trade is. The green tendlines are Fib Fans that work really well on this chart, so $1.40 would be the first stop when the fall starts.





I plan on cranking up the shorts on SDS and SRS to 100% after the open at the best entry point I can find. The average fall has been 40 to 60 points and then a two to three day bottoming process. Why not fall to the lower blue trendline on the minis?

Could a top be in? Yes, but I do not think so. This is the first place I would be willing to say TOP. I think this is the beginning of a 3 down before the final 5 up of P2.

Corker rocks.

Updates - 
Gold- Did someone say gold was toppy yesterday? Hmmmmm? Hmmmmm?
UNG - Gonna get stopped out this am as new lows get set. You do not want to know where I think it can go from here.

Oh - did anyone notice how that 500k jobs number was just briefly mentioned and is now just a ho hum subject. Just ignore tha man behind the curtain. This should be front page news that we should be raising hall about, but we all know now that the government is not doing a damn thing but to prop up the market and the TBTF's and could care less about job creation.

Minis/SPX Now

UPDATE: DXY cracks upper trendline.  Now can it hold and confirm? E-minis sitting right on support.

E-mini 30m - Lower trendline being tested. It tried, but could not get 'er dun. It is consolidating for some sort of move, and I'm not sure (as a bear) if I smell a rat or not.

SPX 15m - testing lower trendline below and MA resistance above. The lower blue thin trendline held what was a perceived breakdown. See that divergence on CCI? What happened the last time we got one of those on this chart? VIX looks to be at the end of it's rope on this chart.

DXY at support and trending down setting lower highs.Possible a descending triangle?

Conclusion - be patient and wait for the trendlines to crack and get the confirmation. If you are short keep your stops tight. I am still only 50% in SDS and SRS. The daily hist is falling and RSI appears to be rolling over. We need to confirm yesterday's daily dragonfly doji. I believe more downside is expected, but be careful, that may be a descending triangle on the 15m spx. Is the /ES setting up for a pop from here? Volume is absolutely pathetic. The bears may be winning on the scoreboard right now, but they are getting pushed all over the field. I'm cautiously bearish at this time.

UNG update - set new low and I lowered my stops to 8.85.

Morning Post

OK, tough call time. I think this is 5 of 1 up and 1115 is the target for the top, but with the news this morning I think 2 or 4 down is now here. I do not think a top is near here (although minis are battling with the top bear market trendline) for many reasons, number one being they are still forcing people into equities for return and a rate raise won't come for a while. The markets are the only game in town. This goes against so many things in place IMO. The dollar is going to have to hit some unimaginable numbers to create further strength, OR does the dislocation of the dollar and the markets begin soon signifying the irrational exuberance in the markets.

I think gold is going to top temporarily this week. 

E - minis 60 m - Battle with top trendlines continues. See that yellow box? That is the 50 to 61% retracement zone and it runs nicely with the 1062 support and the lower (blue) P2 support line.

 
 DXY 60m - Is it in a descending triangle? HERE is one of my big questions. If the minis are in a 2 down bouncing off of strong resistance it appears it will take a 3 (third wave) up to bust that. Do you see a three driver in the dollar chart? It is at support and wedging. The floor in the dollar has me a little timid in calling for a impulsive 3 up. Does the market and the dollar begin their dislocation soon?



 
SPX chart - The style is called Sunset and I will use this weekly chart to call the sun setting one the SPX. We're missing the divergence in CCI and a larger divergence in RSI IMO.

SPX 60m - Looks like a completed 5 waves up, and the divergences are there. 1081 to 1061 is the target range at this time. That will be refined as we go.

Index comparison chart - Art mentioned the Russell 2000 this am and stole my thunder. Can you say lag?

SPX daily - Day 7 in the blue box - Look for MACD hist to turn today (I thought it would turn yesterday.











UPDATES -

UNG - Pulling back. 60m chart looks bad, but the dailys look ok for now. Be careful and set your stops.
EUR/JPY- Should drive down to support at 131.
EUR/USD -Between support and resistance topping.
Gold - I think it is going to have a small pullback very soon. I'll do a post.
Oil - forming a base for a further push higher IMO.

Look for updates during the day.

If you are reading this post on another feed, please bookmark my blog and use it directly. Last night I was surfing my links and noticed that there are several sites that take the whole post and my readers with it. I have nothing against sharing, but stealing the whole post king of sucks. So bookmark me or give me a click. Thanks.

GL trading.

E- minis, SPX And DXY Now

5 does not quite equal one yet (somewhere around 1115) but you can see the the resistance above and the lower ED trendline to the right - The retracement area is 1069 to 1058. If you look closely you'll see a red support line at 1062 and the lower dark blue P2 support line at 1060. divergence in S Sto and RSI are there. MACD as well. Let's pay close attention to what happens here. I believe this is A of either 2 or 4. If not it is 4 of 5 of 1. I am very leery (as I was Friday) of upside and remain only 50% short. When that trendline on the 15m breaks I'll add shorts up to 100%. All charts are in my chartbook and you'll see them on a 20m delay. Use the chartbook dropdown box to navigate. 

15m SPX - If that lower black trendline gives way  . . . . . backtest of the blue trendline for 2 or 4 of 5? Maybe to gap support?

DXY - Breaking out?

Looks like some sort of breakdown may be ready, BUT if that dollar reverses and a breakout happens look out. Keep those stops tight if you are short. I'll note that there is a possibility of one more pop up to 1115 SPX.

Morning Post

Indicators are almost there. 1035 SPX is a new number I am looking at for a top in the last week of December. 1121 is still my target.

/ES Daily - RSI needs to turn here or the divergence to price is screwed. Gray is upper bear market TL that was violated yesterday. Pink is the gap that got closed yesterday. So, at upper TL with dailys and weeklys ready to turn. Sounds like a good brew. How's that dollar doing?

$DXY daily - At upper bear market TL (pink). in a nice falling wedge setting new nt lows. Sky blue rectangle is a gap. RSI and MACD have a nice divergence to price and S Sto looks to be wanting to bull cross. The 60m is in a channel and is at the top of the channel right now. How does this fit with SPX?

SPX daily -  Well, if you follow the trend of the 7 to 9 days for a top then we've had 6 days in the blue box. RSI cracked an intermediate upper trendline, but I think that will be corrected. The only worry for the bears IMO is if RSI and MACD decide to run all the way to their divergence lines. S Sto is embedding. I expect the MACD hist to reverse and start falling some today.

SPX 60m - Looks like a massive divergence to price is being set on RSI. Bear cross on S Sto.

SPX weekly - This chart deserves it's own post and it will get it with a monthly chart later today when I make my case for more upside. Notice the 1135 target point and the A-E rising wedge possibility (I'm not letting go of that quite yet).




Time for either wave 2 or 4 of 5 of C to begin soon. 1170 to 1161 for the target. I am still holding my 50% SRS and SDS and ready to add to them now. I suffered yesterday, but have confidence in a reversal here especially based on the minis and the dollar. IF the dollar cracks that pink trendline I may be inclined to call a top - BUT here is my big secret - I'm gonna bet on a backtest of that TL to set the ultimate top.





UPDATES -

EUR/JPY has busted a triangle and is headed to a lower TL at 131. 
EUR/USD is about to puke all over its self at an upper TL and about to fall out of a wedge.
Gold - floor keeps getting set. I'm waiting on a pullback to add aggressiviely.
UNG - see post from yesterday I'm in a 100% long position with a stop just below the lows.
UUP - Near lower channel line that it has been riding for some time. RSI has taken out its lower daily divergence TL and S Sto is not ready to cross.

Sorry for not replying to some comments and not getting a post up last night. I am coaching a 3rd and 4th grade B Ball team and last night was the first practice, so those practices may hinder some of my nightly posts.

I got to speak with Damon Vickers yesterday on the Alex Jones show. I Asked him about the impending top. The interview was excellent and I highly suggest you tune into the replay around 10:00 est. I am on at 11:00. Really good interview. www.infowars.com


GL Trading.

Morning Post

Good morning. Still struggling with where we are. This is really tough spot.

e-mini 60m - The Gray line is the bear market top line. The pink line is the 1107 to 1109 gap. The royal blue lines are the rising P2 wedge. THE MINIS ARE AT THE INTERSECTION of blue and gray. The count?All I can say is that I believe we are somewhere in 5 of C of P2. I have speculated all along that it would truncate, but maybe not. We'll just have to see.

DXY 60m - Channeling down. I adjusted it from Friday, but it fits better now. At support of the 50% channel line and the 74.95 lows. The pink line is the dominant top trendline for the fall. $74.50 is a number I like. I'll be watching that pink line closely for a break.

SPX daily  - If trend holds, it is still topping (see blue boxes). The indicators are all over the place. I have a sell signal (red line and I am still in a 50% position short in SDS and SRS from /ES 1097 level. The gap between RSI and the upper divergence trendline (black) bothers me as a bear. If that trendline gives way, all the top callers can go back to the drawing boards IMO.








With this being opex week, where the indicators are and where some prices are in relation to their trendlines, the markets are not offering us much help in defining a clear direction at this point. There is potential to go in either direction based on what I see. That may sound crappy, but if you are a ST trader, wouldn't you much rather know where we are headed instead of guessing? I'm still holding my shorts (and my breath). That intersection on the minis may be a very significant point, so no calls till that hits and we see the reaction. This could be a three here today as  2 or 4 of 5 may have played out. I have speculated that it would take a 3 to get thru those top lines and the gap. It is tough to call and I'm not willing to walk that ledge with where everything is.

Opex And Cycles (And More Possible Upside)

Just a quick something I threw together looking for some trends. Some of you may really like this. Red vert lines are Fib Cycles. Blue vert lines are opex weeks. Notice the fib cycle lows all hit nicely. This has me wondering if this was a low. Notice the higher lows in RSI, CCI, MACD, and the corresponding weakness of the falls in price followed by an embeded S Sto and CCI. So, is this bear cross in S Sto another fake out just like after the last two? These cycles are rampant as I'll show in the am in the morning post.

The dollar has gotten crushed since the close Friday and the minis are up over 6 tonight.74.50 is one target I had and then I did throw out the possibility of $70. Now, I believe the dollar will get absolutely pummeled, so when the dollar and the markets dislocate, that will be the key IMO.

For those of you following the VIX, I believe it is the most insignificant index on the planet at this time. When the market has turned, and only when it has turned, will it then have any relevance. IMHO of course. For those of you looking to play the VIX, see my VXX and VXZ comparison chart. I would avoid this play till the bottom (top of market) is clearly set. 

With so many calling or looking for the top, I've been seeing a 3 or 5 of 5 up for sometime now. Bottom line is that the dollars is driving the markets and those that do not get on board with the Fed,treasury, the PD's and the manipulation theme need to get a clue. The massive stick save since April is still in force. Want one good example as to why? Read Risk Rising At The PBGC? from Zero Hedge and Pension Pulse. There are stories like this everywhere. "They" have no option but to save the markets at all cost (and that is what they have been doing, so get used to it).

I know things suck and the market will dive bomb sooner than later. The divergences are all over the place. Listen, I want to call the top, but why stress over it. BFD I say. Let's make some money and continue buying the dips and selling the rips. The daily indicators (as I have preached for months) have been the best thing to follow. Take emotion out of the equation. Screw the "counts" that have done so many so wrong for so long. Just do what the charts tell you to do.

This is the run to the top IMO. We crash on the next fall. According to the cycles in this chart, the next cycle low is in February. That one (if we should make it that long) will be really shallow. The monthly charts are not ready yet and IMO the weeklys although having a divergence, can still hang up here for some time. I'm eying a lot of things including the possibility of a top being in, us topping soon (1121+) or then in Februaryish around 1210. Do not forget that my original topping range set months ago was 1050 to 1121. Let's just see how it plays out. As usual, I'll be playing the indicators.

I will no longer be posting any timing calls anywhere else but here in my comments section.

Keep an eye on UNG this week just in case it pops. $11 is a good number for a start. I'll work on gold and oil this week.

Linus - The only gap left on October 08 is from 1016.48 to - 1018.67.

Let me add this, If you like this please twitter it or share it with others. I'd appreciate it. 

More in the am. Get some sleep. This is gonna be a big week.

Morning Post

OK, I feel a little better this morning. Let's settle into this 2 or 4 of 5 of C and get this over with. Jobs gave a little pop to futures that were down a little that was immediately taken back. The WMT miss was toally ignored. There may be some pent up demand for either side after the last two days of low volume, or it may just be a lame week with fireworks next week. I hate Steve Liesman. He reminds me of the dude that played Frankenstein in Young Frankenstein, but just not as likable.

E-mini 60m - This chart shows the wave 4 down (green), the first leg of 5 up (yellow) and the breakdown that is either 2 or 4 of 5 of C up. The 1073 38% retracement appears to be a good target at this time for when it turns assuming the NT top is in.

Daily SPX chart - this is the key chart to me. Still a little room to run. Just a little unless something pushes hard and the indicators embed. I expect a red sell line to show up here today or tomorrow. Back to back dojis at a backtest of the C wave lower trendline. Any further upside will be halted near the 1114 upper BB for now. I do not expect it to get there. RSI is flat (again) and should (for the bear case) stop at the divergence line above. This is a great set up for a massive fall sooner than later.

INDU daily -See, I can look at other indexes. See the divergence lines on the indicators? For the bear case hopefully this is a ceiling and INDU turns right here or near here to keep the daily divergences in tact. I added back the BD line (cause hotoptionbabe.com has it).

SPX 30m chart - This is a good drilldown showing recent action. It is best compared to the e-mini chart above. Notice the massive divergences in each indicator.

 



TNX v. SPX - This may be a tell of an impending top as these two are now headed in different directions as TNX heads south. See pink box. 

DXY -  Did DXY break out of its falling wedge only to form a larger channel south?








The VIX is not quite ready to turn even though it has busted out of its falling wedge. The VIX indicators are mixed. DXY is making a good move north and might finally be clear of the falling wedge, but is it in a channel down? It appears there is some more churning to do in the market before the turn. I see limited upside potential at this point and an impending turn south sooner than later if the divergences on the 30 and 60m hold and play out (barring some sort of screwy market actions -LOL, you know what I mean).Volume is dead either because of the holiday or everyone is staying dry leading into opex next week. If the market does not get a pop south soon then opex with either create a further overbought top or a pretty significant pullback.

GL trading.

Minis, Dollar, EUR And The Wedges

Interesting day as both the dollar and markets are up today on what appears should have been a healthy breakdown according to the trendlines. Maybe the PPT or the HFT bots saw it coming and intervened. The action is just screwy IMO.I should have titled this the sick possibility of more upside (wait till you get to the daily chart - ugh).

$DXY 60m - Broke to new lows and pops up to take out what I believe is a solid tendline. This one is a moving target and I could have the upper and lower trendline in different places, but this makes the most sense to me. The DAILY $DXY has a solid divergence in RSI to price and S Sto looks like it may want to help push up. This is the chart you can trust the least IMO.74.50 baby - if it stops and holds there, my nightmare below will not come true.

E- Mini 60m - OK, so this puppy broke down thru the lower trendline of the rising wedge. Ya'd think the two breakouts together would mean something. The moves actually correlate very well (except for the dollars action in pre-markets  which is why we had the up and down moves this morning in rapid fashion). Something to note is the DAILY e-mini RSI is at its divergence trendline at 69 with Sto topping.

EUR/USD weekly - This chart is a little hard to read as it is a chopped up version of a 10 year chart. One thing is clear - the rising wedge and the horribly overbought weekly indicators. That pink line is a trendline that was market support going back to 2003. Nice resistance on the backtest I say. The fibs are off of the lows in '02. Looks like a divergence in RSI is being set, thus breakdown soon. EUR/JPY is boring and in a ascending triangle inside a rising channel with a bad looking RSI divergence to price. 

Daily SPX - now to the meat of the story -THE RETURN OF THE DAILY INDICATOR CHART (yeaaaaaaa!) that is still under construction. OK - lots to cover here. Kind of cool to see the upper bear market trendline (black) right above with divergences all over the map on a daily chart below. The gap from 1107 to 1109 is just above (pink). Nice! What is not cool is how uncomfortable I am with price action to the indicators these days. It is becoming very irrational IMO and that is why I am so uncomfortable. When things that normally make sense stop - somethin ain't right. Now here is where I go all screwball on you. See that C=A target? Well that is where the weekly 200ma lies right now as well. What about that 5=1 target? 1204? Dude? Dude, I know, I know. Hell, I got sick this morning when I mentioned 1180 as a possible target not to mention my upper target of 1121. I am NOT calling these, just merely pointing out the possibilities. They do not seem likely given the position of the dollar, the minis, the divergences and the IMO total dis-functionality of anything right now. Now do you see why I am struggling? It was hard enough to believe this thing could bottom in March with all the troubles or even make it to this point. (I won't mention the inverse head and shoulders target of 1355, OK?)




I'll post a weekly chart tomorrow. Bottom line is all along I have wanted a nice retracement to reset the lower trrendline so the market had a little more room to run higher and this last low (wave 4 of C IMO at this time) has set up for the 5 to run. Either I have a fever or have drunken too much of the manipulation cool aide (which has kept my calls better than most) . I'll reassess and grind over this for a while. Pure TA says toppy now. Not sure why I can't bite. Maybe I'll be back to normal tomorrow.

Oh, I got admitted into the ZeroHedge DARPA program today. LOL - I hope they don't see this shit - oops - I'm on there RSS - Hey you guys and girls - ignore this post please. 

Comments and prayers are appreciated. Speaking of prayers, don't forget Vetran's Day.