Morning Post

Oh lawdy, look at that DXY run. The only question is at which trendline does it stop? We have had 8 days in the blue box on my SPX daily chart and the avg top has taken 7 to 9 days. I mentioned yesterday that gold was toppy. That last hourly bullish candle on the 60m yesterday that fooled most will be gobbled up at the open this am by some gapage down. Somewhere near 1065 on the minis and the SPX is what I am seeing for now. That number will have to be refined, but it is what I see now. Note the dollar climbs fast and falls slow.

e-mini 60m - Breaking trendline and falling off of resistance. the only caution i see is the 60m indicators are bottoming while the dailys are topping. the daily RSI just topped its divergence trendline and is reversing south now and it appears barring a whipsaw a bear cross on S Sto will happen today.

$DXY 60m - How bout that pop last night. Someone almost called the dxy breakout yesterday to the minute, not sure who that was? Which trendline does it stop at pink or yellow? Based on the indicators of the major indexes I'm guessing yellow as they let the dollar out to run in the yard before putting it back in the dog house.Note again the rapid climbs and the slow falls in the swings.

SPX daily - Will the blue box theory hold? MACD hist has turned (again) and RSI appears weak. S Sto is embedded and at top range levels.

EUR/JPY - this chart needs to be seen.  Sho looks like a pop is in order if you ask me. If the green and yellow TL support crack then the channel is toast and the fall begins.I almost want to call this the end of a B wave of a LARGE ABC corrective. If I am right it tops in the 152 to 155 range.When this puppy hits the upper trendline Mr. Toppy will be in the house IMO.

EUR/USD weekly - The weekly chart emphasizes just how overbought and tired this trade is. The green tendlines are Fib Fans that work really well on this chart, so $1.40 would be the first stop when the fall starts.





I plan on cranking up the shorts on SDS and SRS to 100% after the open at the best entry point I can find. The average fall has been 40 to 60 points and then a two to three day bottoming process. Why not fall to the lower blue trendline on the minis?

Could a top be in? Yes, but I do not think so. This is the first place I would be willing to say TOP. I think this is the beginning of a 3 down before the final 5 up of P2.

Corker rocks.

Updates - 
Gold- Did someone say gold was toppy yesterday? Hmmmmm? Hmmmmm?
UNG - Gonna get stopped out this am as new lows get set. You do not want to know where I think it can go from here.

Oh - did anyone notice how that 500k jobs number was just briefly mentioned and is now just a ho hum subject. Just ignore tha man behind the curtain. This should be front page news that we should be raising hall about, but we all know now that the government is not doing a damn thing but to prop up the market and the TBTF's and could care less about job creation.

Morning Post

OK, tough call time. I think this is 5 of 1 up and 1115 is the target for the top, but with the news this morning I think 2 or 4 down is now here. I do not think a top is near here (although minis are battling with the top bear market trendline) for many reasons, number one being they are still forcing people into equities for return and a rate raise won't come for a while. The markets are the only game in town. This goes against so many things in place IMO. The dollar is going to have to hit some unimaginable numbers to create further strength, OR does the dislocation of the dollar and the markets begin soon signifying the irrational exuberance in the markets.

I think gold is going to top temporarily this week. 

E - minis 60 m - Battle with top trendlines continues. See that yellow box? That is the 50 to 61% retracement zone and it runs nicely with the 1062 support and the lower (blue) P2 support line.

 
 DXY 60m - Is it in a descending triangle? HERE is one of my big questions. If the minis are in a 2 down bouncing off of strong resistance it appears it will take a 3 (third wave) up to bust that. Do you see a three driver in the dollar chart? It is at support and wedging. The floor in the dollar has me a little timid in calling for a impulsive 3 up. Does the market and the dollar begin their dislocation soon?



 
SPX chart - The style is called Sunset and I will use this weekly chart to call the sun setting one the SPX. We're missing the divergence in CCI and a larger divergence in RSI IMO.

SPX 60m - Looks like a completed 5 waves up, and the divergences are there. 1081 to 1061 is the target range at this time. That will be refined as we go.

Index comparison chart - Art mentioned the Russell 2000 this am and stole my thunder. Can you say lag?

SPX daily - Day 7 in the blue box - Look for MACD hist to turn today (I thought it would turn yesterday.











UPDATES -

UNG - Pulling back. 60m chart looks bad, but the dailys look ok for now. Be careful and set your stops.
EUR/JPY- Should drive down to support at 131.
EUR/USD -Between support and resistance topping.
Gold - I think it is going to have a small pullback very soon. I'll do a post.
Oil - forming a base for a further push higher IMO.

Look for updates during the day.

If you are reading this post on another feed, please bookmark my blog and use it directly. Last night I was surfing my links and noticed that there are several sites that take the whole post and my readers with it. I have nothing against sharing, but stealing the whole post king of sucks. So bookmark me or give me a click. Thanks.

GL trading.

E- minis, SPX And DXY Now

5 does not quite equal one yet (somewhere around 1115) but you can see the the resistance above and the lower ED trendline to the right - The retracement area is 1069 to 1058. If you look closely you'll see a red support line at 1062 and the lower dark blue P2 support line at 1060. divergence in S Sto and RSI are there. MACD as well. Let's pay close attention to what happens here. I believe this is A of either 2 or 4. If not it is 4 of 5 of 1. I am very leery (as I was Friday) of upside and remain only 50% short. When that trendline on the 15m breaks I'll add shorts up to 100%. All charts are in my chartbook and you'll see them on a 20m delay. Use the chartbook dropdown box to navigate. 

15m SPX - If that lower black trendline gives way  . . . . . backtest of the blue trendline for 2 or 4 of 5? Maybe to gap support?

DXY - Breaking out?

Looks like some sort of breakdown may be ready, BUT if that dollar reverses and a breakout happens look out. Keep those stops tight if you are short. I'll note that there is a possibility of one more pop up to 1115 SPX.

Morning Post

Indicators are almost there. 1035 SPX is a new number I am looking at for a top in the last week of December. 1121 is still my target.

/ES Daily - RSI needs to turn here or the divergence to price is screwed. Gray is upper bear market TL that was violated yesterday. Pink is the gap that got closed yesterday. So, at upper TL with dailys and weeklys ready to turn. Sounds like a good brew. How's that dollar doing?

$DXY daily - At upper bear market TL (pink). in a nice falling wedge setting new nt lows. Sky blue rectangle is a gap. RSI and MACD have a nice divergence to price and S Sto looks to be wanting to bull cross. The 60m is in a channel and is at the top of the channel right now. How does this fit with SPX?

SPX daily -  Well, if you follow the trend of the 7 to 9 days for a top then we've had 6 days in the blue box. RSI cracked an intermediate upper trendline, but I think that will be corrected. The only worry for the bears IMO is if RSI and MACD decide to run all the way to their divergence lines. S Sto is embedding. I expect the MACD hist to reverse and start falling some today.

SPX 60m - Looks like a massive divergence to price is being set on RSI. Bear cross on S Sto.

SPX weekly - This chart deserves it's own post and it will get it with a monthly chart later today when I make my case for more upside. Notice the 1135 target point and the A-E rising wedge possibility (I'm not letting go of that quite yet).




Time for either wave 2 or 4 of 5 of C to begin soon. 1170 to 1161 for the target. I am still holding my 50% SRS and SDS and ready to add to them now. I suffered yesterday, but have confidence in a reversal here especially based on the minis and the dollar. IF the dollar cracks that pink trendline I may be inclined to call a top - BUT here is my big secret - I'm gonna bet on a backtest of that TL to set the ultimate top.





UPDATES -

EUR/JPY has busted a triangle and is headed to a lower TL at 131. 
EUR/USD is about to puke all over its self at an upper TL and about to fall out of a wedge.
Gold - floor keeps getting set. I'm waiting on a pullback to add aggressiviely.
UNG - see post from yesterday I'm in a 100% long position with a stop just below the lows.
UUP - Near lower channel line that it has been riding for some time. RSI has taken out its lower daily divergence TL and S Sto is not ready to cross.

Sorry for not replying to some comments and not getting a post up last night. I am coaching a 3rd and 4th grade B Ball team and last night was the first practice, so those practices may hinder some of my nightly posts.

I got to speak with Damon Vickers yesterday on the Alex Jones show. I Asked him about the impending top. The interview was excellent and I highly suggest you tune into the replay around 10:00 est. I am on at 11:00. Really good interview. www.infowars.com


GL Trading.

Morning Post

Good morning. Still struggling with where we are. This is really tough spot.

e-mini 60m - The Gray line is the bear market top line. The pink line is the 1107 to 1109 gap. The royal blue lines are the rising P2 wedge. THE MINIS ARE AT THE INTERSECTION of blue and gray. The count?All I can say is that I believe we are somewhere in 5 of C of P2. I have speculated all along that it would truncate, but maybe not. We'll just have to see.

DXY 60m - Channeling down. I adjusted it from Friday, but it fits better now. At support of the 50% channel line and the 74.95 lows. The pink line is the dominant top trendline for the fall. $74.50 is a number I like. I'll be watching that pink line closely for a break.

SPX daily  - If trend holds, it is still topping (see blue boxes). The indicators are all over the place. I have a sell signal (red line and I am still in a 50% position short in SDS and SRS from /ES 1097 level. The gap between RSI and the upper divergence trendline (black) bothers me as a bear. If that trendline gives way, all the top callers can go back to the drawing boards IMO.








With this being opex week, where the indicators are and where some prices are in relation to their trendlines, the markets are not offering us much help in defining a clear direction at this point. There is potential to go in either direction based on what I see. That may sound crappy, but if you are a ST trader, wouldn't you much rather know where we are headed instead of guessing? I'm still holding my shorts (and my breath). That intersection on the minis may be a very significant point, so no calls till that hits and we see the reaction. This could be a three here today as  2 or 4 of 5 may have played out. I have speculated that it would take a 3 to get thru those top lines and the gap. It is tough to call and I'm not willing to walk that ledge with where everything is.

Morning Post

OK, I feel a little better this morning. Let's settle into this 2 or 4 of 5 of C and get this over with. Jobs gave a little pop to futures that were down a little that was immediately taken back. The WMT miss was toally ignored. There may be some pent up demand for either side after the last two days of low volume, or it may just be a lame week with fireworks next week. I hate Steve Liesman. He reminds me of the dude that played Frankenstein in Young Frankenstein, but just not as likable.

E-mini 60m - This chart shows the wave 4 down (green), the first leg of 5 up (yellow) and the breakdown that is either 2 or 4 of 5 of C up. The 1073 38% retracement appears to be a good target at this time for when it turns assuming the NT top is in.

Daily SPX chart - this is the key chart to me. Still a little room to run. Just a little unless something pushes hard and the indicators embed. I expect a red sell line to show up here today or tomorrow. Back to back dojis at a backtest of the C wave lower trendline. Any further upside will be halted near the 1114 upper BB for now. I do not expect it to get there. RSI is flat (again) and should (for the bear case) stop at the divergence line above. This is a great set up for a massive fall sooner than later.

INDU daily -See, I can look at other indexes. See the divergence lines on the indicators? For the bear case hopefully this is a ceiling and INDU turns right here or near here to keep the daily divergences in tact. I added back the BD line (cause hotoptionbabe.com has it).

SPX 30m chart - This is a good drilldown showing recent action. It is best compared to the e-mini chart above. Notice the massive divergences in each indicator.

 



TNX v. SPX - This may be a tell of an impending top as these two are now headed in different directions as TNX heads south. See pink box. 

DXY -  Did DXY break out of its falling wedge only to form a larger channel south?








The VIX is not quite ready to turn even though it has busted out of its falling wedge. The VIX indicators are mixed. DXY is making a good move north and might finally be clear of the falling wedge, but is it in a channel down? It appears there is some more churning to do in the market before the turn. I see limited upside potential at this point and an impending turn south sooner than later if the divergences on the 30 and 60m hold and play out (barring some sort of screwy market actions -LOL, you know what I mean).Volume is dead either because of the holiday or everyone is staying dry leading into opex next week. If the market does not get a pop south soon then opex with either create a further overbought top or a pretty significant pullback.

GL trading.

Morning Post

It is a new day at Shanky's Blog. I have entered the world of Disqus which will hopefully bring in a few more comments and add to the site. I plan on monitoring the conversations as often as possible. It should be a big improvement.

FIRST - Please remember that today is Vetran's Day. This may be the most important holiday we have. Remember those that fight, fought and fought and died for us to have our freedom. I'll most likely have an enormous rant about how F'd up our country is tonight and how the assholes in DC and on Wall St have disgraced these fine folks and us.

The minis set a fresh new high overnight at 1102, so this fairy tale adventure looks to have more legs. Another possible top come and gone. That one was a better fake out than the last. I am looking at this next top as "the" top as far as EWT is concerned. I'll clarify that meaning I think EWT will miss it one more time. Not busting anyone's chops but EWI's (cause you can diss them here all day long if you like), those folks need to learn to read the indicators. When they top and set divergences, then the market will top not cause your count says so. Yes, they will have a valid count after the fact, but only after the fact. Having missed two tops now, Prechter calling a top months ago and being "the experts" I would expect them to have their tails tucked quite tightly between their legs right now.

There was a missing 5 up of C and we're there now. Sooo many targets, but the way I see it is if 5=1 then somewhere in the 1180 range ought to do it. At this time, since I have not gotten out the abacus and the protractor and put it under the microscope, I can't give a precise number. I'm sticking with my original upper end target of 1121 (which will be expanded). At this time I think we're in 3 of 5 of C of P2. REMEMBER, I use EWT after consulting the indicators and make EWT fit to what the charts say. I also mainly use it as a nomenclature that allows me to more accurately describe the markets positions.I think we pullback very soon and then shoot for the moon during opex week to the possible top. I'll call it when I think it happens.

/ES 60m - Nice wedge! Top blue line is the P2 top trendline. Top pink line is the gap from around 1107 to 1109. That light gray line just above is the bear market top trendline. I'd say this is a major roadblock if you ask me. that combined with the 60m indicators being over bought with a divergence on S Sto and RSI means time for a pullback soon. A pullback to the lower P2 support line is possible, but we'll look at that later.

SPX 60m chart - Backtesting the trendline with some toppy indicators. Is that Mr. Divergence beginning to show his face on the RSI? MACD HIST has its divergence going on and might want a bear cross soon. S Sto is embedded and will fall sooner than later. Remember the dailys are the key for me and they still have a little room to run. the 60m can embed for months if they like. This chart says a turn is coming soon. Let that divergence in RSI get set.

$DXY 60 m chart - DXY to new lows! I had 74.50 as a target, but would not be surprised to see it sub 70 by the end of next week. I told you yesterday the wedge was not right, but now I think it is. This will have a temporary bottom soon.









Cutting it short this am cause I was running late. I think we top today or tomorrow early and have a pullback befor the big push in opex next week. I'm not sure where the bots are getting the funds to drive the market now as QE is supposedly dead and POMO no longer exists (as far as we know). Remember, you are a passenger on this ship and Captain Ben and his first mate Timaaay are running the show. Insiders have been dumping  and the computers control 70% of the trade. They will let it fall when they want it to, or something outside of their control will have to rip it away. Keep following the daily indicators to the tops and bottoms and you'll be fine.

I'll do a detailed post today with measurements on where I think it ends and when.

I wonder if that babe in the bikini will stop by today?

Check out the Disqus comments and leave one if you like.

GL trading

Morning Post

As long as the dailys are running, let 'em run.

Minis are flat. Dow set a new high yesterday for '09. SPX backtesting the C wave lower trendline. I believe I was the first to call the inverse H&S last week (not confirmed, nor do I really care) with the 1091 target that was pegged yesterday. Sooo much action.

P2 LIVES - Its ALIVE. This is the missing wave 5 I have been speaking about. I had called for a truncated 5th wave all the way up and this mat be it. Yes, I was 85% a top was in, but that does not constitute calling a top. THIS TIME I WILL CALL A TOP (based on EWT) cause to me the formation will have played out. All the waves in place, the divergences on the weekly indicators and the the monthlys showing signs of weakness are all factors. The sucker suck in rally to the double top or blow off top is happening mow IMO. The one concern I have (where I may get the top wrong) is that the manipulators still control the liquidity and the dollar. As long as the dollar goes south the market will go up (to a point). As I have mentioned before, it may need an "external event" to rip this market away from the manipulators.

E-minis 60m - Looks to me like the 5th wave wedge is playing out. I count 3 up ending with 4 and 5 to come. Believe it or not 1121 appears to be a possible target (my upper range all along). There is a gap on the minis that is still not filled from 1106 to 1109 that should get closed before this move is over.

SPX 60m chart - No divergence in RSI yet, but it may begin the prodess today as the indicators are very toppy. These cam embed, so don't get all giddy about a turn using the 60m.Backtest of the lower trendline is in place. Keep an eye on that CCI 200 (yes, 200, and maybe you should try it too!). See the dashed blue top indicator lines. Let's watch CCI top out and set a divergence. The moment it goes negative is the time to be short 100% (get 50% short on the set of the divergence).

SPX Daily Chart -Other than the strong indicators the one think I want you to notice is the upper trendline on RSI. Does it stop there is the only question I can see in  this chart. NOTE - the upper BB (not on chart) is at 1,111. MACD closed positive yesterday, so now the market can "top" and reverse without any technical issues (IMHO).

$DXY  60m chart - Double bottom? I wish! Indicators on both 60m and daily say more lows to come, but these prices are controlled by the gods - I mean the fed and treasury and GS - so you never really know what they will do.It looks like a postetial throwunder of the falling wedge on a E touch, but I am doubting that based on the indicators. Possible that the wedge has not formed correctly at this time.






 I'm sure you can tell I got a new editing toy. Digging around trying to add Disqus last night I noticed that Blogger has made a posting enhancement. I'll try not to get too creative with it. Feedback on the new format would be appreciated.

Look for the Disqus addition soon and for me to possibly do a little chat of my own.

GL trading!

Morning Post

I hope everyone had a good weekend. Not really all that surprised to see the Minis up this am. The 61.8% retracement was crushed yesterday and the upper resistance line taken out in the process. Let me mention one thing that has not happened on the minis - they have not touched their bear market upper trendline. I am not saying they will or have to, but that should be a major line in the sand. One would expect that trendline to come into play eventually possibly several times. There is a chance this market drives to new highs or wants to set a double top if the daily indicators are allowed to run their course.

I'll add that there really was never a 5th wave in my opinion of the C leg of P2. I had always expected one more pop and for that wave to truncate. It is quite possible that this is that 5th wave (we'd be in 3 of 5 now) and P3 may not be underway. It is also possible that this is 2 up of 1 down (we'd be ending C, but looks like a zig-zag to take it higher). Remember I count, but rely on TA as the primary call. My EWT counts are only to accurately describe the markets actions.

E-mini 60m - I thought it would turn in the gray box at the upper green trendline, but the daily indicators are driving up. You can see the 60m indicators are topped out. I have mentioned two targets early last week. the conventional 1067 to 1071 area and then I threw in the idea of a IH&S with a target of 1090. The heavy yellow line is the neckline and it had a nice backtest Friday. Apparently the minis are channeling and at the top of the channel right now.



$DXY 60m - Double bottom time!?!?!? The dollar got crushed over the weekend. $76.15 WAS the low back in September of '08. That does not appear to mean anything. Has the dollar completed a dead cat bounce or is there more fall to come. If so, the market will continue to march up. It is very possible that this is a E touch throw under of the falling wedge.



SPX 60m - Upper trendline will be further violated this morning, but the indicators on this chart look toppy now, but there is still room to run some.



SPX daily - I have been warning that the daily indicators look bullish and last week put the buy signal on the chart. RSI got thru 50 but is flat (for now), MACD hist is rising and ADX got the bull cross. The dailys may have to run their course.



I went short 15% positions in SRS and SDS on Friday taking a chance the retracement and upper trendline would hold. Not sure if i will hold or add to those positions. Based on the daily SPX I may be out soon. With the chance of an ending 3 and a 4 then 5 to come, I'd place the upper target for this run at the 1090 H&S target (that also works for 5=1 range). If the minis decide to back test that upper green trendline in a 4 down that is where I will exit.

This is must read IMO - Reported Cases in Ukraine Double Again To 871,037. Much thanks to my buddy Moron for the link. If Swine flu - or some other strain is taking hold that is more deadly - this could be a big surprise as the MSM seems to be keeping this under the radar. Here is the link to the first chart in my swine flu section. If you click on the chart it will scroll you thru them or use the chartbook drop down above the chart.


Sorry, I had to turn on comment moderation, so be patient.

Please call your representatives and let them know your feeling on the HC bill and the Audit the Fed issue.

GL today.

Morning Post

10.2% ROFLMAO try 17+% if you live in the real world. Don't let the MSM sell you their crap. Things are FAR FAR FAR worse on the employment front than they are telling you. And some thought holiday hiring would help - her is a hint - it probably did. Don't fret bulls, JOBS DON'T MATTER. It is all about what the gigantic vampire squid wants and GS will drive the market ANY FING WAY THEY WANT TO. He who controls 70% of the volume makes the rules. FING BS. Fortunately most of the real investors are on the sidelines and staying there. THEY ALL LIE! LIE! LIE! LIE! Good thing it is a Friday or I'd really be pissed.

Minis 5m - Simple - the yellow rectangle is the 50 to 61.8% retracement area for the last move up. I've been calling for a top around 1067 to 1071 (with the outside chance of a pop to 1091 of which I have not given up on yet, but hope there is fading), so the top of 2 may be in and 3 of 1 may be here to pummel the market. That is not a call. Yellow (old market top line support) trendline has it now, then the green lower wedge line, then the red S/R line then the blue P2 lower wedge line. I'm not sure that lower blue line can stand one more hit. IMO it is going to take a 3rd wave impulse to take that lower blue trendline out for good and the set up has that happening. Look for 2 of 3 to backtest the blue line for the last time then Konichiwa.



SPX 60m chart - possible neg div in RSI, if not there is room to run. Upper red tendline may be (may have been) the top in the retracement box (blue).



I am not going to jump on the southwards bandwagon till I see the move in real time. I just got a feeling the PPT and GS may intervene in some way here and the daily indicators are too bullish right now. A top could be in, yes, we'll have to see what the indicators do. Remember the weeklys are driving the bus and he who has the high ground usually wins.

Sorry for the lame post, I got a lot going on this am, and I'm really not happy right now.

AUDIT THE FED SHOULD NOT BE DEAD!

GL today

Morning Post

Sorry I'm a little late.

I think the B wave of the 2 of 1 of 3 (we might be half way thru the first upwards corrective) might be done. 2's and 4's can be difficult to count at times and this one may shoot straight up or zig-zag. We do not know. My targets range from 1067 to 1091 at this time.

SPX 60m chart - Really curious with what happens with the trendlines in the indicators. RSI is sitting on the 50 line and it's 20EMA which might lick it back up. I do not expect the upper RSI trendline to break for a long time. This chart is slightly overbought and might get worse.



SPX daily chart - Looking at this chart RSI says upside may be limited as it battles to get back thru the 50 line, but S Sto is embedded with a possible bull cross and MACH HIST is turning up, so there could be some bullish under currents.



SPX 15m chart - This is what I see happening with targets. See the possible IH&S pattern? If the daily indicators kick up this will play out nicely for the bulls. If not SPX may just consolidate in the triangle and then fall.



E-mini 60m - That pesky lower P2 trendline just will not go away (lower blue line). the lower red line is a 38% retracement of the move up off of the 866 low. It appears to be wedging, but I expect it to break that top line and get up to the 1070 range if not higher. Is that a possible inverted H&S with the head at the 1026 low and we're coming out of the right shoulder now?



$DXY 60m chart - Dollar getting pummeled which is bullish. Almost completed gap fill and approaching lower trendline. Somewhere around 75.25 may be the turning point if not a double bottom (or worse?)



See my gold and UNG posts below.

GL trading!

Morning Post

Wuz up? Tiggers are wonderful things. They are bouncy trouncy like this market and it may finally be time to get some bouncy upwards action, but how much? Waiting on the Fed may keep volume low and some on the sidelines.

How big will it bounce? Not big enough if you are a bull. If you are a bull you better become a bear IMHO. When the weekly charts rolled over they became the dominant player on the block. The 60m and daily charts are at its mercy being pinned under the weight of the fictitiously overbought market.

The market is at a very precarious point based on the 60m and daily indicators. A move down here could be in order, but if not a stronger move up will happen. The trendlines on the indicators I will show you below show exactly why.

60m SPX Chart - I've been patiently waiting for the divergence on the 60m RSI to come and it was set yesterday (and the corresponding bounce came with it). BUT the upper RSI resistance trendline is now in play. Will it crack or keep downwards pressure on the market for another day or two?



Daily SPX chart - Price is supported here by the lower trendline and the lower BB. MACD looks bad, but the HIST has turned S Sto is embedded. RSI has flattened and volume is dead. What concerns me here as to the strength of the upwards move in the trendline on RSI. Will it be able to break thru or will it be the force to keep the market down. This spot will be key.



Weekly SPX chart - This chart is particularly nasty. Just look at the indicators and the red trendlines that have been violated. The top is in IMO (85% now). These indicators will drive the market down. You can expect negative weeks to outnumber positive weeks significantly over the next several months.



/ES 60m - The channel down for wave 1 of P3 has run it's course. The red line is the 38% fib for the run up to the top off of the 866 low. The wedge up and out of the channel is kicking up off of the 38% fib and the lower P2 (bull market) trendline (blue). That is a clear trendline break and should lead to more upside.




/ES weekly - Just thought I would throw this one in for visual effect. See the indicators turning south.



I suggest you follow the fibs on the SPX for upside guidance (unless the Fed and the GS bots get a hold of this market and provide some really screwy action up. Employment Friday may have some bearing if CNBS parades more false and misleading numbers.

Resistance numbers on the SPX are -

50ma - 1052
BB 20ma - 1071
50% fib retrace - 1065
61.8% fib retrace - 1074
Resistance point - 1080 (if it tops this I would be very surprised)

Watch that upper trendline on the daily RSI. If it cracks more upside than i am expecting should occur. I'm guessing it cracks and sets a lower high.

Gold is topping but still has some room to run IMO and SLV may be a good play as it tends to run past gold at each top. I'm gonna do a gold post this am and show a chart of this action. Look for gold to pull back to or near the monthly 20ma for your next entry.

The Dollar, EUR/JPY and EUR/USD all might work in favor of the market.

GL today.