Morning Post, SPX, S&P 500, E-mini

Happy tax day! Please donate generously! Sadly your refund may not be in the form of cash. Wouldn't it be nice if we could pay them with IOU's. You better enjoy this one cause next year is really gonna suck (well, if you still have a job and are actually making any money)..

Jobless jumps, but thank goodness only another 424 thousand lost their jobs. Man, it could be a lot worse. This is great news. you know that at this rate by the end of the year averaging this same number only a few million more will be out of work. CNBC, if you are listening, as soon as Santeli was done speaking after the number was announced I turned your crap show off.


Earnings Calendar - GOOG after the close. BAC and GE before the open tomorrow

Economic Calendar - Jobs, worse than expected and knocked the minis down 3 to 1202.5. Huge day with many announcements including Philly Fed at 10, Natgas at 10:30 and housing market index at 1.

Pivot Points - Know 'em.

Well, you know what I think.Can they continue to pull rabbits out of the hat? The minis are set for their standard gap down open with the 30m working off being oversold. The minis and most indexes took out their upper resistance lines for the bull market corrective yesterday. You rarely hear anyone bitch about a market going up, but if they don't let this thing breathe soon, you might hear a little uproar. I guess they really don't give a shit. They have proven that they have the ability to take every bubble to the extremes and they are doing the same here. All hail the mighty bonus! To hell with the country, I need a third house in the Hamptons.

Not sure I can add anything to the post from the close yesterday, so if you want to see a chart or two, scroll down. If something should happen I'll be screaming and posting.

I'll add my 30m SPX. I bark about the 30m minis and the 30m SPX quite a bit. This is my main trading chart. SSO up and SDS down. I'll be waiting on the MACD to cross. I like the black TL at 83 as a target if it gets thru the red support line.The key is to remember to buy at the bottoms! Gotta play it both ways.

As a disclaimer, nothing is fool proof. Do your own homework. Always use stops and have a set trading plan. This system works for me, but things change and time frames and signals don't always work (see the daily chart LOL). I'll place buy and sell lines on this chart when they hit, but they are not guaranteed in any way.


Dollar - got a pop overnight. but 30m is about to roll over. Should have more weakness here.
Natgas - Report at 10:30 today. Have your fingers on the trigger. Is the pop over? Was this just a pause before further weakness? It has been range bound for over a week now.
Oil - Might be rebounding. With all the talk about Israel and Iran teeing it up sometime soon I would not expect any weakness.
Gold - Should remain range bound leaning to more weakness
EUR/USD -  oversold on the 60m, but you never know. One of the PIIGS could puke up a lung any minute.

GL!

I Think You Have To Get Ready For A Turn

I'm just saying, you know how stupid this sounds, like the market could actually turn. LMAO. With that thought in mind I present the following. 

CPC is getting near the extremes that brought the last big sell off. It is not there yet and we may need a little pop to get us there, but it is in the potential reversal zone. Last time it was down here we got a major move.

 Daily SPX - OK, price is above the daily BB. It is just under resistance. The red wedge is ending. The BB is pinching price into support. The BB may be vertical at this point. The BB width is very narrow indicating volatility. It has been overbought for an extended period.

 SPX weekly - I have been bringing you this chart with targets since October. I have cautioned that this rally will be over when the RSI crosses that red support line. With RSI finally over 80 one would think that would be enough. I will be truly amazed if it crosses the green target zone which contains the 200ma at 1224, the gap, the 61.8% retracement at 1230 and C=A at 1214. In my opinion this last push that got the market thru the bear market upper trendline is the blow off top suckers rally.

I'm not saying go short the market. I'm saying this should be a major turning point if things were "normal". I will continue to play my SDS and SSO up and down on the 30m S Sto crosses on SPX. They can ramp this SOB to the moon for all I care, but if this technical intersection on the daily chart does not produce a reversal I'll be amazed (yes, even more than I already am). GL!

When Is Enough Enough? E-minis SPX 500 Futures

You tell me when enough is enough. The latest unfathomable feat of the march to infinity and beyond happened on Friday after the bell I guess speculation (with some inside information) on the Greek bailout announcement. Of course the minis shot up a few extra points, but what they gapped thru is the insanity of it. For months I have been bringing you the minis and the wedge. The upper trendline has been the one constant the market has respected, until tonight. In the words of Moses, "Behold his power and respect his rules." (No caps cause I was referring to Helicopter Ben in the place of I Am).

Daily from the low - 

60m Drill down -

Even closer - note the gap thru the TL. That is one way of knowing you have a really solid TL in the right spot. So now futures price is above the bull run's top TL and in the green wedge heading further into the stratosphere. The reversal of all this will be horrendous.

I believe the 60m futures will still be overbought in the morning (see the TLs under the indicators above). The divergence on the daily RSI and overbought condition can not be ignored much longer. After the gap up in SPX to get it's 1200 glory, I am anticipating a fall of some degree. Let the 30m minis cycle to the top and that should be the proper time to enter shorts (they have a nasty way of setting up the 30m indicators to bottom in the am so be careful shorting till they top). The 30m SPX rupture (see my last post below) on Friday was possibly the single most abomination of the charts I have seen thus far on the run up.

One last chart - YEARLY SPX - 1209 looks to be a really important number on this chart.You need to note that the MACD is still in bear mode and although RSI is bouncing off the 50 line now I would not pay that any attention. The yearly RSI will have to hit the 25 line or worse before this ends. That is one super bearish candle in 2008. I expect the candle for this year to be red as well. Yes, that is a trendline and the lower BB near 300. The 50 ma is at 479. More in the am. GL!

Morning Post, e-mini

Now the question becomes was the fall on Tuesday and Wednesday just another ABC corrective and the march up continues? If yesterday was a corrective of that move it was most impressive. If it was another 1 of the next 5 wave move up it was even more impressive. Look, at this time we all know this market is a POS rigged game. We all know it will come crashing down eventually. As I have anticipated from the beginning, and I repeat again, it will take and "external event" out of "their" control to make the markets crash. It will crash and it will be soon. They can't keep the balls in the air forever. They have nixed all rules and regulations and have had the printing presses in overdrive reinflating the bubble. It will pop. As I have stated before, there will be TWO market closures on the next fall.


I'll be back in the office next week. Enjoy your weekend. 

Pivot Points - Know 'em

Economic Calendar -

Masters -Yes, it is rigged as well. It seems the the standards for the WWE permeate the nation now.

I apologize for missing this analogy for over a year now. If the average American believe Pro Wresting is real, then WTF do you think they believe about this recovery crud the government and MSM are feeding them?

E-mini daily - The upper bull market resistance line is real. It has held the market for over a year now. I believe the pot can boil over, and it will sooner than later. All this pattern has left in it is churn. Significant upside should be limited from here. The only thing that can cause even more upside from here is even more significant market manipulation by the bots. Expect a long rant Monday.

GL and have a great weekend.

Morning Post, SPX, S&P 500, e-mini

Well they have teed off at the Masters and apparently the bears have teed off on the bulls as well. I am still on vacation. I can't wait to get back to writing the evening posts.

Pivot Points - Know 'em

Economic Calendar - Very busy with Jobs before the bell and Natgas at 10:30.

Masters - I still swear to this day the first time I walked into Amen Corner my feet did not touch the ground.

First an overview of where your favorite index is. Who has the farthest to fall to catch up? Well, you TZA and QID fans that have been feeling most of the pain have a chance to get the most delight on the backside if prior trends persist IMO.

SPX daily - Lord I hope the final divergence is set and this sucker can finally roll over for a week or two (or 52).

SPX weekly - Just look at the SPXA50 and the NYMO divergence and the last few time this combo has happened.

UNG- I'm not sure who it was that posted the possible breakout of UNG on March 8th. Oh yeah, that was me! As far as I know I was the only person on the planet that made the call. I did the post on Focal Equity and only linked it here in some comments. This time may be a little different, but a move north is still possible as the 30, 60 and dailys are oversold again. The possibility exists for a continued move north. I'd have my finger on the trigger at 10:30 just in case. I made a great scalp in less than 5 minutes last time.

GL today. I expect some churn today with a 50% chance of continued downside action. I'm thinking a corrective is in order if it does not let go. I'll post again during the day like yesterday if anything happens. This crack on the minis should be a big deal but may want a backtest so be patient. If no backtest, look out.

Morning Post

Its starting - University of California Campus Erupts In Riots; Student Loan Scam Drives Up Cost Of Education; Expect More Riots - They are coming. I do not watch the MSM anymore, so I do not know if these were covered or not. More on this and other things to come (nothing good of course) in the evening post.

Economic calendar - 3 and 6 month auction later today. Otherwise quiet.

Bent on manipulation should be the overriding theme of this market. If Rosie is right and the SPX is roughly 26% overvalued on a P/E basis, then these unprecedented pops are all that more impressive. The low volume trading is allowing the market makers little resistance to push it where they want it to go. I think, as a trader, you have to keep an open mind and stick with the trend. If you have not learned not to fight the trend by now, please leave the room now and do not return. You do not belong in the trenches trading these markets. The trend will turn. P3 will come. A massive meltdown/slaughter is coming, but it is obviously not here yet, so keep an open mind towards the current trend and NOT on what we all know is eventually coming.

OK, at least one blog I know of has been calling/warning of the possibility of a 5.3.5 move for at least two weeks. Who could that be? Hmmmm? I've been right on most of my calls all the way up leaning with the unexpected upside driven by manipulation and they did not disappoint me again last week. Why do you think I posted the weekly chart last week and asked you to heed its strength? Yes, I took some small short positions on Thursday, but was stopped out at the open on Friday. A turn is coming soon. Wait for it to come to you. I would not trust anything long here. This next move south should be pretty drastic I'm thinking.

SPX 60m -Have we learned out lesson of gauging market moves on the 60m indicators class? They are not reliable (at least not in a way they used to be). I warned you not to trust 'em. Yes, I shorted on what I thought was an overthrow of the triangle. It looked really good. Now if my I'm counting right were clearly in the C leg of an ABC move. I think we're finishing 3, but I can also count a 5 wave completing. The move actually measures best to a double top which will be fun to call. Keep an eye on the weekly indicators. This should be the final move for the bulls. Yes, those divergences are real and should put some pressure on the market (you'd think).

SPX Daily - Overbought and at the upper BB.
SPX Weekly - Still climbing. MACD hist has not gone positive. Bears may have to wait for a green candle there. RSI5 is just under it's divergence line. Let's see if that holds. S and F Sto are still in bull mode.

I'm expecting a correction soon, but I'm gonna look for a turn in the Weeklys to confirm any serious downside action. We've all seen the 30 and 60m cycle all around while the markets have continued to rise. We have also see the dailys remain embedded for what seemed to be improbable time frames. I'm back to watching the weeklys. Be patient. The turn will come. 

Dollar - I believe I was one of the only ones calling for the ABC corrective (with my alt scenario as a run to 89). I think the corrective has run it's course and a throw over of a wedge has occurred. If I am wrong it does a 30% retracement from the top here and then look for a C=A run to 89. The weeklys are topped and the dailys still have plenty of room to fall. I'm favoring more downside for some time.

Oil - Who the hell knows in the most manipulated market of them all? I think it is going to near $90 and I may be able to put a gate on the top if the trends continues. Look for a backtest of the initial channel off of the lows.

Natgas - It has gotten to weak to fast IMO. It is blowing out the bottom of it's down channel. The dailys are embedded oversold. Again I'll refer to the weekly indicators that say no big move up is coming. It may get a pop here soon, but don't expect much.

Gold - Dailys are toppy but the weeklys have some room to run. I'll speculate on a double top as it should have continued strength. Now, how it reacts to a market turn will be interesting. I'm not sure if it will inversely correlate with the expected weakness in the dollar, but the setup looks to be calling for that.

EUR/USD - The EUR is gonna get pounded eventually, but what isn't? The race for devaluation is in full force, but the EUR may have to pull into the pits for some fresh tires as it has completed a 61.8% retracement and seems to have found support. Might be time to the dollar to play catch up.

Morning Post

Kind of quiet out there this morning, so you get lots of charts!

Economic Calendar - Consumer and investor confidence at 10:00

Earnings Calendar - Nothing huge bust worth a glance.

Emini 60m - What some are calling wave 1 down (blue) and wave 2 up (gray) are clearly seen here. The green diagonal line is the market support line going back to August. Notice how narrow the up channel is compared to the down channel and the decrease in volume with the upside move. Watch that green TL and the channel. If they crack I believe the bears will have the momo again.

SPX daily - Sorry to keep bringing you this chart over and over again, but it has kept me on the right side of the trade for some time now. The RSI 5 has finally crested and RSI may be rolling over. S Sto and  MACD hist have not confirmed anything yet. CCI and ADX are rolling over as well. We should be close given the indicator TL breaks on the 30 and 60m indicators. Another thing I will harp on is the green dashed bear market top TL. I assume this may be a magnet to any downside move and it is going to take a strong move by the bears to recapture it. (it can be seen on the weekly chart below as well.)

SPX Weekly - To me this chart says the market is confused somewhat. This may be the chart to watch to determine who really has the momo and if my thoughts of this being a 5.3.5 move are remotely possible versus the ending of a 2 corrective. Both RSIs have gone flat. MACD hist is moving up and has not gone positive. S Sto is in a bull formation still. Thus some confusion as two are saying up and two are saying caution. F Sto may be the one to watch as it looks to be rolling over and may be the first one here to confirm the trend change if we get one.

Gold - Fairly narrow trading range has developed since the beginning of the year (if you call 10% narrow). Look at the indicators. Topping and trending down. I'd look for the lower TL to be tested before any further strength (if there is any further strength).

Oil - Trending up in a large channel (yellow) and may be getting a little toppy. Nearing the 50% line of the channel with indicators kind of toppy, but still have room to run. There should be a lot of resistance in this area.

Dollar - My thoughts of a E throwover after completing and ABC corrective of the fall sho look good on this chart. It also makes sense if the whole world is going to be in a battle to devalue their currencies. The monthly dollar chart has this as the E of a larger A-E flag that should top at 89ish, thus I am somewhat torn on the call. The dollar has almost completed a 50% retracement of the fall and is at gap resistance.

Not gonna cover the currency pairs till I get them figured out. The drive for global devaluation can't work cause someone has to strengthen for someone to get weak. I assume we strengthen to assist everyone globally (and cause we have a bigger printing press) then later everyone collapses somehow. This is what has been happening recently and the trend may continue. Some are seeing the dollar in a big move up here. I do not think that is possible given the global dynamics (thus I think the EWT counts are wrong).

SPX should be about to roll over here and give the bears the momo for a little while. It does not look like a big 3 down is coming as should be expected by EWT, but you never know. Let's be patient and let the set up come to us.I assume i will be short somewhat (maybe 1/2 position) before the day is over.

GL today!

Morning Post

The minis are entering their first round of resistance points in this area. The next block is around 1113. Minis also at the top of the corrective channel. 30 and 60m getting toppy but the dailys have plenty of room to run.

Earnings Calendar -  Cause you may want to see it.

Economic Calendar - Tomorrow is a busy day with employment and the EIA reports on Natgas and Petrol.

SPX daily - Pretty much just like the minis. 30 and 60m overbought. I'm viewing this move as more of the continuation of the breakout of the red dashed falling wedge. The BB 20ma is toast and the next stop will be the 50ma at 1108 which sits in the retracement zone (box) between 1097 and 1110. The upper BB is back on the chart finally and sits at 1136. The only caution point I see on this chart for the bulls is the RSI sitting at the 50 line. MACD hist has gone positive which means the market can now put in a top. I'll be watching the RSI 5 for preliminary topping signals.Friday I called for 1103 max upside. Let's see if that can hold.

I suggest you keep an eye on this as it falls for a possible reversal signal when it meets price. I was correct in last Fridays buy call and I'm still calling for some more upside. I will caution the longs to keep those stops in place and lift them with the market. This sucker can and will turn on a dime and when it does it can be severe.

More upside than most may be expected if the dollar has completed the ABC I have been calling and it is not in a 5 wave move up.





Gold - is on a tear (up 8.5% in the last week) and possibly has a valid breakout happening cutting thru the upper resistance line with authority. Will it backtest? 30 and 60m indicators have some strong divergences, but the dailys are just getting warmed up. Gold all depends on the dollar. 1135 to 1157 is the retracement zone for this correction (if it is one).
Dollar -The dollar is a tough call. Is it completing the ABC corrective leading to much further weakness now or does it have more steam left in the engine? I like the ABC as being completed, but I think it is going to double ZZ to the 89 area before the plummet. Either way it eventually gets crushed.
Oil - At near term resistance, but in the channel with room to climb.
Natgas - Channeling down and indicators look like more weakness is to be expected.
EUR/USD - Looks like a possible E throwunder near a 62% retracement. That would be a classic corrective completed and some strength should be expected.

GL out there. Nice to be back. I'm gonna be updating charts and posting the beat of what I find.

Morning Post

Snow day for Shanky here in South Georgis. Waiting on 4-6" of some pow-pow to show up on my doorstep. I'll believe it when I see it. What's the forecast for Vancouver today? I feel sorry for those people up there, but still looking forward to the winter Olympics and Daytona this weekend.

China has raised rates again. The big news that pissed me off this am is that Toyota hired  regulators to help hault investigations. The corruption is rampant. They care more about corporate health and profits than our own well being. You would think they are getting better and might be learning something from all this mess. Apparently they don't give a flip about our well being. Money talks.

Markets are at a precarious spot. The EWT folks are looking for another sharp move south very soon to save their most recent counts. They may get it as the markets try to hold upper resistance lines with the futures down. The mixed indicators have some (especially me) feeling a little leery about forecasting any specific direction at this time. The 60m overbought, the dailys have been bottoming for sometime and the weeklys are still headed south. I tend to lean to what the dailys have going on for true direction.

SPX daily - Which TL will be the upper resistance for the next turn? Trying to crack the dashed red TL now that has been proven resistance. On the other hand the blue TL below has been proven support. A break either way could be significant. Looking at the indicators the RSI 5 cracked it's downtrend line. Every other indicator is oversold and ready to turn. My old reliable S Sto has a bull cross. On the other hand the 60m is overbought and the weeklys are still headed south. Barring some reversal in the dailys forcing them to embed and even given the bearish action in the futures, I am going to lean to some more upside before any major turn south (which is coming). Maybe this move at the open today cures the 30/60m problem or they become embedded overbought. I'd call it somewhere in the 2 wave and not in 3 yet.1 is over. Possibly some more choppy consolidation. The BBs are still way to wide for any super volatile moves. 1103 max upside at this time. The bears party will just have to wait I guess. IF I AM WRONG (and since I decided to make a bold call against the grain) I'd say recent support at 1044 and the green bear market TL will be in play pretty quickly.

Have a great weekend. I'll be rooting for the old man in the #5 car as always at Daytona (I like the 38 as well). GL!

Morning Post

MCD and KO do well. Ignore them, cause all eyes are on the PIIGS and who else might be invited to play Default Dominoes.

I'm sticking that it all comes down to Greece, the other PIIGS and the EU. Nothing else really matters anymore. The focus is there. The only question is does the thief come in the middle of the night or during trading hours. How much of it is priced in?

The rumors and news surrounding Greece and the PIIGS are insane. Just how much of this is in the control of GS and not Trichet or any other fraudulent government money man.

What was up with the secretive banker meeting in Australia while the G7 was meeting on the other side of the world?

Earnings calendar -

Economic calendar -

E-mini 60m - Channeling down (Sky blue lines) after breaking the Green support line that held the market up since June. Reversing near the 38% retracement (yellow line at 1037) of the 862 low. The dailys as expected are pretty oversold and this mornings pop of 9.5 points is not surprising. Any good news will cause a thrust these days and the fact that things in Greece have calmed down somewhat is reason for the dip buyers to get active again.

SPX - I still contend it is fighting off the upper bear market TL. It tagged it again yesterday and reversed. Can it hold is yet to be seen. The daily indicators are struggling to gain ground and remain oversold. The RSI5 divergence tried to give way yesterday, but may be coming home to roost today based on the futures. 1085 is the max if we even get close to that. 1110 is the 68% retracement at this time and the 50 ma on the daily chart. It is only a matter of time before the collapse. As I mentioned earlier, will we wake up to it one morning or will it happen during trading hours.

Dollar - Is it having an overthrow of a wedge? It would be backtesting the upper TL right now if it is. Pretty overbought, but this will not mean anything if a flight to safety occurs. I also think there is a possibility that an ABC has completed, but looking at things politically I believe the rush to safety on an EU breakdown sends the dollar to 89. Then it crashes with everyone else.
Gold - Getting a nice pop this morning. It is oversold and might have a little upside left. A pop to the 1085 - 1090 range may be in order. There is upper channel resistance there.
Oil - Oversold and bouncing off of lower channel support. If this support cracks 65 and 59 would be likely stopping points. I called $55 months ago. That TL and target may have moved.
Natgas - Revesding off of the upper channel line, but at support. Indicators are mixed. So, /NG is in a very precarious spot. Charts are telling me there is confusion among the ng troops, that is usually not a good thing.
EUR/JPY and /USD recovered some yesterday and have been crushed over the past month. As correlated to the dollar, they look to have completed ABC correctives, but given the PIIGS situation, I have to expect worse. If this is a 5 wave move we are in 3 down and should be expecting a 3 of 3 soon.

GL out there.

The Wedge And The Target

On January 5th I first posted the chart with the rising wedge and a proposed target 1046.37. I think I got a few laughs if I am not mistaken. I continued to post the wedge and followed it thru the remaining climb and overthrow E touch and now present it again today. Sometimes these things stick out like a soar thumb and you can see 'em coming from a mile away. Thus, I always look for potential formations as early as possible in any move. It does not always work out, but when you get into a "what could it do" scenario and put the TL's on paper and then see it play out, it can be a beautiful thing. Now, lets see if this target can hold.

January 5th Post with potential target 1046.37.

Here is the chart today after adjusting the proposed target to an actual measurement 1056.38. It initially stopped at the horizontal target line, but continued to the measurement point this morning. Is that the end of 1? I'd also like to point out that it has completed a backtest of the upper TL of the initial formation down and may have completed a falling A-E wedge (better seen on INDU). RSI 5 may be setting a divergence on the daily chart. The fall may not stop here, but hey....(oh, and yes, I did call for "one more" higher high at the end of the wedge as well.) Just a little horn tooting. Feeling frisky today. Sorry. 

Morning Post

Another 480,000 lost. When do you think this "norm" will finally catch up with us? Wait till you see the Explaining The Government's 1.8 Million Job Overestimation In Pictures. Did you catch that headline - 1.8 MILLION OVERESTIMATION! I tell you day after day that they are full of shit and you can't trust a damn thing out of them. So we're gonna have a "slight" adjustment that is going to ADD ONE MILLION people previously unaccounted for to the jobless. Does anyone really know the truth? It will implode and it will not be pretty.

Economic calendar - nothing big

Earnings Calendar - Jobs reports and a bunch of other fictitious numbers will be released today.

SPX Daily - Bears came back as expected yesterday. Jobs number sank the futures. The question is are we in 3 of 1 (the major leg down) or is this still the B leg of the corrective. The thought that this could be one last B down of P2 is fading fast. GS and the boys would have to pull their 1,000th rabbit out of the hat and I believe they are out of rabbits. All we can do it wait and see at this point. Lets look to see if it gets to 1087 support. I'm in cash.






Gold - Met the upper TL and reversed. Daily indicators are a little out of whack but are more bullish than bearish. 1066 is massive support. I believe the 1000 level holds for a long time.
Oil - Pulled back yesterday on the numbers. I think this is a corrective and another buying opp will be soon.
Natgas - trending down and it will continue.
Dollar - Popping into an overbought situation. It will need a correction sooner than later.

I'm getting worried. My gut bearometer is spiking. Really not comfortable with the global situation. The dominoes start to fall soon I'm afraid.We'll see this in 3 of 1 of 1 soon and then the fun begins.

GL out there.

Morning Post

Good morning. Futures are up a smidge (2.50 at this time). They have pulled back 4 points off of the 1092 high. The minis and SPX are dancing to a different band right now. The minis have broken their major top tl and have broken back above the market support line gong back to June. This should have been a brick wall, but was not. Let's see what happens in the 1104 area if it can get there.

Earnings calendar - AFL goes after hrs today (that would be a hometown ex-employer of yours truly) with MET and TSO. In the am we have PFE, SGP and TWX as a few bigger names roll thru.

Economic calendar - Timmaaaah gets grilled at 10:00 for the next three days. Pending home sales at 10:00 as well.

SPX daily has almost confirmed a st trend change. ADX and a couple others are not at the party yet, but the main playas are there and it should not be long till it gets going. The base at the 61.8% retracement f the run from 1028 is another positive development. Cracking 1087 resistance in the last few minutes yesterday opened the door to 1103. I got a 1/2 position yesterday in SSO.

The chart I share this morning is the Dollar Triangle. Your thoughts would be appreciated. Remember, you saw it here first (well, maybe not, but I have not seen it anywhere else). Looks a lot like P1 doesn't it? This is part of the reason I am looking for an ABC and not a 5 wave move here. My target calls for an over throw of the triangle sometime next year.Of course it is possible that the 40ma throws it back down here and it just runs to new lows. Remember I am pretty biased towards a very weak dollar.

Dollar - topping nt on the daily indicators. It needs a breather. Support at 78.
Gold - Approaching an upper TL that might slow it down some, but I think it is in an ABC wave 2 corrective that might throw it up to the 1150 to 1175 range. Dailys are oversold and turning.
Natgas -  Channeling down but may be oversold somewhat and might pop based on the daily MACD and possible S Sto bull cross.
ERU/JPY - Should reverse here for a pop. Really oversold.
EUR/USD - Looks like a throw under of a falling wedge in oversold conditions stopping just above a 50% retracement. If it does continue to fall 1.3755 should be the max.
Oil - At support and oversold. I'd look at playing a reversal here. USO or OIL might be worth looking into. Do your homework and use stops. Inventory data comes at 4:30 later today.

I'm looking for more upside today and thru the rest of the week. Maybe 1 is complete (if it was a 1). The dollar looks like it is going to confirm the move and remain in concert with the indexes. I'm long 1/2 SSO and looking to add to it and possibly some TNA for the short pop.

Have a good one!

Morning Post

Minis up 5 and climbing. Boy does CNBS have the cheerleaders out this am touting growth and prosperity. sounds good if you are a moron. Remember they are salesmen, not prophets. What's that saying about lipstick on a pig (all except Becky of course)? Our first morning with Benjamin back at the helm for another four years looks to be getting off to a prosperous start. I guess the markets take to the idea of furthering the reflation trade.

E-mini 60m - That green support line going back to June was unexpectedly tested again. That was the missing 5th wave I am suspecting. I was a day early jumping into the small long position, but that is fine. Got out with small gain and now ready to reload again. Let's see what happens at the 50% line in the sky blue channel and then at the top of it as well. The yellow wedge target is just outside the top of the blue channel near 1123. Resistance at 1103, 1112 and then up around 1127 should be your stopping points and then the retracements are 38% 1101, 50% 1109 and 62% 1117. I believe a base has been built and I'm not looking down (yet).

SPX 60m - Now you know why I like the daily indicators to trade off of. Take a peek at the divergences here and see how ineffective they have been to this point. Sure, they are screaming a turn is coming but not the tradeable point of the market. This is a good chart to see the fibs, s/r and the trend.









Gold - Is about to bottom out and reverse I think. Within $20 of the 38% retracement and double converging channel support. Might be time to buy some more tungsten gold soon. $1066 is the 38% retracement. When that eventually cracks, 1020 is the next stopping point.
Oil - As I showed in the chart yesterday am, oil is at lower channel support completing a 23.6 retracement at $71.60. Daily S Sto bull cross and divergence in RSI may mean the bottom is in.
Dollar - Sister Christian is "Motorin" right on up the charts in what I am calling the 3 of C of the ABC correction.
Natgas - support has cracked and a lower low has been set. It may be channeling down and might be time for a small pop after giving up over a dollar (down 15%) in the past few weeks.
EUR/USD - still beow 1.40 and looks like it will get even weaker if the dollar is gonna continue Motorin.
EUR/JPY - Finally took out the LT support level of 126.71. 124.24 is the next level. It may be channeling down.

GL out there. GDP is strong like bull! (like bullshit if you ask me). Keep on playing their game, cause you can't beat 'em. I'm looking for a corrective to begin soon. My daily chart has not given a buy signal yet. the MACD hist reversal yesterday really pissed me off. That and the S Sto cross looked good, but as I noted RSI and a few other factors were not there. They will be soon I believe.

Have a great weekend.

Morning Post

Roubini sees slow growth is the first thing that caught my attention reading thru the news this morning. Very busy day and the markets might not do much in waiting for Barry's state of the nation speech tonight. Following up on last night's post Chief TARP investigator to open two AIG probes. I'll tell them what they need to do with those probes if they need an idea.  

I have NO CLUE what happened to the formatting of this post. I'm tired of trying to get the gaps out (kind of looks like some of our SPX charts doesn't it?), so screw it. 


Earnings Calendar - A ton today, but MSFT and AMZN tomorrow might create the biggest buzz.


Economic Calendar - New Home Sales at 10:00, FOMC and Barry tonight lead a busy day. The Pertolium report at 10:30 may be interesting.

SPX daily - Indicators never confirmed the buy signal. The RSI hook turned into a flat and it still has room to go to bottom if it wants to. MACD HIST is still negative and trending down (although at a slower rate). S Sto is embedding. Looking for a divergence in CCI. Price is still playing just outside the lower BB indicating oversold conditions persist. Price seems to have found a home at the 50% retracement off of the 1030 low to high just above the red support line. 

 



SPX 60m - Great head fake here yesterday. Follow MACD hist to the turn and you will see the hour of reversal. CCI remains bottomed out. This stopped the RSI, MACD and S Sto advances in their tracks.

E - mini - What I think is a possible channel down here running into support from the green TL that has supported the market going back to July and traveling under the 50 to 62% retracement area (gray box).












Interesting day with all the news to come. FI holders better look out cause the FOMC language on rates will be newsworthy. I do not think they can raise rates here. You see they should have raised rates 3 years ago so they have worked themselves into a rough spot. they will have to raise rates sooner than later and with China being the first to do so, I think we will not be far behind. This will rock the markets when it happens.


I think we consolidate in a triangle here at support and make the 4th wave. I want to see how the indicators trend out before making any more prognostications. Upper limit is the 1115 area and the lower limit is  1082 my wave 5 target. I'll add the possibility that this is 5 of 3 and we still have 4 and 5 of 1 to come.



GL!

Morning Post

Good morning. If you have not contacted your representative (Senate - House) and told him/her not to vote for Ben I encourage you to. If you support Ben, then good for you.

Earnings calendar - Yahoo after hours today.

Economic calendar - The biggie is Consumer confidence at 10:00 looking for 53.5 up from 52.9. (I am not going to comment on the possibilities of revisions to these numbers.

I suggest that you read The Second Phase of the Global Economic Crisis is at our Doorstep.

E - mini daily - The minis have met my 1085 target and the lower green TL well ahead of schedule. The green TL also measures out well for the light gray triangle. The indicators here are bottoming, but they are not quite ready to give a buy signal yet. I'm gonna watch to see if the sky blue channel has some merit and the interaction with this support line. Next stop would be the backtest of the upper (sky blue) bear market top TL.

SPX daily - The indicators are close, but not there yet. So some more weakness is expected, but possibly not much. When it turns I'll prognosticate the pop. Right now I have 1131 as the max, but remember I have not called a top yet. RSI has a hook but is not horribly oversold. MACD has a lot of room till a turn and hist is not reversing yet. S Sto is in the bottoming zone but it can embed. CCI has turned and I would look for a possible divergence to price. ADX might be at a buy point.

SPX 60m - All indicators turning up with possible buy signals, but they can reverse and embed. This chart says the bears need to tread with caution. Retracement levels for a pop can be seen here. Watch those to ma's and the upper BB level as well.
















We might have a 5th wave left to complete which should get you to 1085. Not sure if the market goes into hibernation here with the vote for Ben just around the corner and the FOMC meeting tomorrow. If this is a 5 down and then we have the ABC corrective for 2 of 3 you can expect some choppy consolidation trading for the next week. Please remember to contact your representative on the Ben vote one way or the other at the conveniently provided links above.

GL!

Morning Post

Financial Terrorism? That is what Denninger is calling it and I agree with his assessment 100%. In Financial Terrorism? You Decide some great questions are asked."Is not a threat to destroy financial markets along with acting intentionally and directly opposite what you claim needs to happen an act of financial terrorism?" is one of them. Please read this if you have not. Zero Hedge covers it here - Chasing Red Liquidity Herrings.


The reason I open with this is because it supports my theory that the markets are manipulated and that the Creature From Jekyll Island is running the show (with a little help from their evil twin GS). How can I continue to call for higher highs in the face of all of this mess? It is simple, the GAME IS RIGGED. They are playing Russian Financial Roulette with our financial future. These meat heads play the game backwards though. They start with a fully loaded clip work backwards. It is only a matter of time before they actually pull the trigger. The Brown election actually took a round out of the clip, so at least there is one empty chamber.

 Don't forget we are still in earnings season. Lots of companies report this week. Earnings calendar HERE. The Barron's Economic Announcement Calendar is HERE.


On to the charts. Impressive move south last week that you had to be on Mars to have missed. Looking at the daily SPX, some of the indicators here have not reached oversold status yet. The futures indicate they won't get there either (E-mini up 7 at this time). This run has blown out the lower Bollinger Band, crushed the 50 ma and closed two gaps. that is a lot in such short a time. It has also completed a 50% retracement of the last run up off of the 1031 low. I would like to point out that while sellers greatly outnumbered buyers last week, the volume was not all that impressive.

SPX 60m - This chart on the other hand is dramatically oversold and to me does the best job of showing how the recent trends in price swings was crushed. 1087 to 1090 is a strong support area. At this time I'm not sure what wave structure is. Is this a 2 or a 4 is the big question. I think it is a 4. Given the length of 1 I do not expect much more weakness for some time to come. Think about it. 4 up, a short 5 down,  then you have to trace out an ABC corrective, so it may get dull again for a week. The Bernanke confirmation vote may keep a bunch on the sidelines. Let's look for a retrace to the 1111 to 1115 range then we'll go from there. I have not called a top yet. At this time I expect the 1131 range for the to of 2 if we are in P3.

Gold- looks oversold on the indicators and may be consolidating at this support level. This could be a C up here.
Dollar - Set a new NT high last week. This may be a 2 of a 3. I will be long again large for the 3 of 3.
Oil - Oversold and near a lower support/channel line. I'd look for a pop back to 77/80.
Natgas - Still traveling up the support line. Indicators have divergences to price which is not good. Good support at 5.32.



GL out there and take care.

E-mini Overview - Where Are We Headed?

Where are we now and where are we headed?

Weekly chart - Sky blue channel down. Top bear market TL was broken in early November. The (pink) P2 (bull market) wedge off of the March lows has played out almost to the very end and the most significant break of the lower support line is happening now. the indicators on this chart show just how overbought the minis are and how close we are to a trend change in the market.

Daily chart -Here you see the pink P2 wedge and the 50% to 61.8% retracement zone (gray box from 1127 to 1235) much better. The convergence of the upper TL, the 50% retracement and the end of the wedge all combine to make a powerful reversal point (esp when combined with the overbought conditions)  New to this chart are the recent divergences to price in the daily indicators (yellow lines). These have a high degree of accuracy in predicting turns.

Daily drill down - Same chart as above covering the C leg of the ABC P2 corrective. Here the new lower green support line is introduced. I believe this is the target for this move. Second target is the backtest of the bear market top TL. The big question will be does it fail at that point or will the bull market continue from there? I do not think it will, but the possibility has to be mentioned. The fibs for this fall off of the "B" 865 low in July are - 38% 1039, 50% - 1006 and 61.8% - 973.

60m chart - Here you get to see the structure of the top better. One thing to notice here is the volume dramatically increasing. I see a possible channel forming (dark blue) that may hold the first wave down of P3 or the final corrective down of P2. The minis did not set a higher high like SPX on Tuesday the 19th. Not sure if this is significant or not. The low of 1101 looks like it completed a 5 wave structure. The removal of the 1127 and 1112 supports and marking new lows was pretty convincing a trend change may be upon us.

30m - Off of the 1148 top it is hard to grasp a count. I would suspect this is a 3 ending here and we had a long 2. I like the channel (sky blue) and what appears to be a falling wedge ending in an oversold situation. the only thing that detracts from those two formations are the devastated support points. If she stops here 1121 is both the wedge target and the 61% fib for a possible retracement.






Support points from here- 1084, 1068, 1028, 1013, 976, 948, 925, 878 and 865.
Fibs - for this fall off of the "B" 865 low in July are - 38% 1039, 50% - 1006 and 61.8% - 973.
Fibs - for this fall off of the P1 665 low in March are - 38% 963, 50% - 906 and 61.8% - 850.
I do not see any diagonal support lines that may come into play at this time.


Shanky's targets? I think this move possibly makes the lower green TL near 1085 in the first week of February. At that point we either bounce back to new highs or it completes 2 of 1 of 3. How severe does this fall get? Maybe the possible "bow tie" top rolls on over at a controlled pace till August when it really lets go. Two possible options I see for a bear market top TL (sky blue) backtest are 1013 in late Feb or 948 in late may. I believe the backtest of that TL will mark the end of 1 of 3. It just seems logical at this point. I don't have a crystal ball, but those intersections look good. If anything they may be too steep (or not steep enough). We'll know more as this form develops. One thing for sure is that after 865, there is a big dark hole to the last bottom.One other prediction - EWT will do a much better job on the way down than it did on the way up. I'll be counting again!

GL and have a great weekend.

A Mini P3 Rant And SPX Weekly Chart Update

Do we get P3? Hell yeah we get P3! Most know that I believe every bit of gains since April are all a farce. IMO they are purely manipulated numbers driven by backdoor deals pumping QE funds into equities forcing massive short squeezes and using HFT to drive the markets up. For some reason EWI and most TA purists don't get this.

The market is all they have left. RE and CRE are and will be toast for some time to come.The banks and AIG are insolvent. Consumer spending is gone as credit crunch, increased savings and unemployment rule the day. The treasury is at it's ceiling. States like Cali are insolvent and more are to come. China and our foreign allies are no longer purchasing treasuries at a rate that will support our needs.

Monetization will continue the reflation/Ponzi trade, but when it fails it will have done nothing more than dug a deeper hole for us to get out of. The carry trade will end and the dollar will get crushed. Deflation is a must IMO to wipe the slate clean which means depression must happen. Inflation will come eventually. When they first raise rates the game is over. That is when they throw in the towel for this round and they begin the process of really trying to save this country from the failed reflation trade. This will be the great battle. (I speculate that they will raise rates this year, BUT will almost immediately send them back to zero for an extended period.)


We have not recovered one bit. It may have stalled but not recovered. All we have done is save the TBTF's thru accounting fraud, zero regulation policies and mortgaging our future (WE did not do this - THEY did this and it will screw us all). The Brown election has kicked off what I believe to be the largest turnover in Congressional history. Incumbents beware. I believe our president needs to look out as well. Rham will be the first to bite the dust from his cabinet as he scrambles to save face and his legacy. The finger pointing from here on out will be very loud. I expect to see the worms squirm to save their seats and the fight should be more than interesting. 

Will the people revolt? Eventually, yes. With pensions destroyed, SS dead, Medicare dead, tax increases to balance budgets, stagnant to continued increasing unemployment, increased productivity (is great for business and the markets but not for employment), zero regulation, enormous bank bonuses, and the death of the middle class; the people will have had enough. We will raise hell and be in the streets one day. They will hear us. I really like the Move Your Money platform. It is a great start to a peaceful revolt. They are screwing you so screw them back. One other way may be to use the power of the internet to organize and have a bill free month (you heard it here first!). Yes, one month where we all decide not to pay ANYTHING. Shut it down. I'm not saying to not pay period, make it up the next month. I am saying to take a month off from payments and see what it does to them. We are in control. We are the power. We can shut them down in a moment if we chose to. Do we need them? Yes we need banks, but not these assholes. Support your local banks!


Our country is teetering on the brink of disaster. Actually we have crossed the line. There is no way out except to for our fearless leaders to perpetuate the fraud and Ponzi scheme that they have gone all in on (and we all know that will not work either). We now have no room for any natural disasters or events that could cripple us further. No room at all. Another $50 billion hurricane would wipe us out. Earthquake in Cali? Terrorist attack on our soil? Maybe the epic Brown victory was the catalyst to start this ball rolling downhill. This is no way to manage your finances. As a planner, we preach about an emergency fund, well we have spent it and more.

Konichiwa Bitches! We are the next Japan so get used to it. The purging will be a deep colon cleanse that will not be pleasant. The rotten feces in our country's gut will take some tome to clear out, so we may have to endure several rounds of treatments.

Have faith though! There will be opportunities to do well in this market (if Barney Frank does not get his way) thru playing the volatility and at the end ther will be a ginormous bull market waiting. The journey to the promised land is upon us. It may not take 40 years, but 5 may do it. Be patient. For those of you that are not traders, actively manage your portfolios. Buy and hold will get you nowhere. Rotate and rebalance and do not be afraid to go to cash. I'd promote the use of ETF's over mutual funds (Alpha? LMAO, the only thing they add is fees and more fees and a portfolio that is so large it is like managing a lumbering elephant thru a china store.) Most importantly, don't get greedy!


On to the chart - 

Since Stockcharts was so kind just to eliminate ALL annotations on this chart I had to draw it again. A profound thank you to the incompetent SC staff and computers. Maybe if you went to work for the government we could get this top issue settled.

SPX weekly shows the topping process clearly. Most know that when a weekly chart tops, it tops. It rarely embeds  like this one. When it does, extreme over bought conditions persist.

Two scenarios presented. 1) ABC and 2) possible A-E triangle formation. Right now we are all on the ABC and the A-E is only a very hypothetical possibility at this time. Some are calling a "bow tie" top (I hate it but I see it as you have seen me draw big circles on this chart in the past). I see a possible diamond top reversal pattern. The SPXA50 is above 400 again which has been a reliable indicator for tops on the way up. Look for it to travel to 100 again soon. Bear market top TL has been met and pierced. 50% retracement of the fall has been passed. Daily and weekly indicators are embedded.

You can see the piercing of the upper bear market TL. Where does it top? I have no clue, sorry. I plan on calling it, but I just don't see it right now. That is why I put a really large black box on the chart. It may have likely topped yesterday (I wanted one more higher high). I have annotated the "Great Wall of Resistance" above price (green rectangle). I am not willing to even consider anything above that (even though some have the potential H&S target above 1300). Most of you know I am watching the red RSI support line closely. A minor RSI support line is cracking right now (red arrow), but I do not believe this one is THE one. This will however set the high for RSI I believe and the much desired and anticipated divergence hopefully can now be set. I thought the divergence had been set and am not sure if the double top in RSI could count, it may, we'll have to see.

The pullback I have been calling for is happening, now, do I still have the balls to call one more higher high? I'm still contemplating that. Jack be nimble. You want to clear that candlestick and not land on it. I may still betting on the manipulators and the PPT, but not for much longer if I do.

Konichiwa!

Link to the same chart HERE.

Morning Post

C and IBM report Monday. Here is next weeks calendar. INTC did well. Looks like revenues are gonna suck again this quarter. I have to ask, at what point in time do missed revenues (for what might be 8 consecutive quarters now) catch up with businesses in a market where credit is tight and consumption is low?


JPM beats and cautions. No up in dividend (who expected that?). Cautious words about consumer credit were not received well.

It is always nice to rally to new highs on a day when employment numbers were a slight disappointment.

CPI was ho hum slightly better than expected this am. Futures are down 4.5 right now.

SPX 30m - Chart shows a nice channel over the past month (call it a GSEC). Looks to me like a 1,2 - 1,2 move and should be tired. The reason I'm bringing in the 30m chart is that the divergences are very noteable and should be taken into consideration.

SPX 60m - Check out the rotation of the Stochs from top to bottom to top. Was that the pullback? Whoopie! Is it time to embed again? I don't think so. You see the 30m channel from above in green. Is this a measured move? However you want to measure the move off of the November low and then translate it to this move, looks like 1201 to me if it is. Nice divergences here as well. What I see as a throwover E of the triangle is still there. I do not think the triangle target will be met on the pullback unlesws we get some sort of serious disappointment in the earnings arena soon. Not sure if the apex of the triangle next week will deliver anything either. I still stick with the call for some sort of pull back, but not what I was looking for earlier this week.

OK, all that said, throw everything you know about TA and EWT and fundamentals out the window and think QE. QE is driving everything and thus the markets WILL remain irrational longer than we can remain solvent. I am still calling for some sort of retracement to crack this trend up soon. I was right yesterday when I said I was wrong about expecting a pullback and we set new highs (anyone else tired of moving fibs up every other day or so?).I'm not gonna be swinging anything this weekend with C and IBM Monday. I want a clear trend set (or at least the start of one) and some sort of correction before I jump into anything here.

GL out there and have a great weekend.