STB Morning Post 09/14/11

I can't pull it out exactly when, but I remember a period this year when the DOW minis fell over 100 points 5 out of 7 nights and wanted to crash just like the last three nights and the markets subsequently rallied out of that set up. The euro zone is driving the minis down overnight and they are rallying to "hide" the underlying weakness by the open. I'm not sure why the markets have had two green days, but they have.

I don't know how the markets can be sure of anything given the underlying issues globally and here in the US. What we have learned here at STB is that what is isn't. You can't get caught up in what "should be". The markets are totally controlled. As stated here many times the markets are all they have between them and a revolution in this country. The pension system is underfunded and on the verge of collapsing. It can not afford another "dip" in the markets as asset values give the impression (or illusion as STB likes to call it) all is well.

Morning Post, SPX, S&P 500, E-mini

Happy tax day! Please donate generously! Sadly your refund may not be in the form of cash. Wouldn't it be nice if we could pay them with IOU's. You better enjoy this one cause next year is really gonna suck (well, if you still have a job and are actually making any money)..

Jobless jumps, but thank goodness only another 424 thousand lost their jobs. Man, it could be a lot worse. This is great news. you know that at this rate by the end of the year averaging this same number only a few million more will be out of work. CNBC, if you are listening, as soon as Santeli was done speaking after the number was announced I turned your crap show off.


Earnings Calendar - GOOG after the close. BAC and GE before the open tomorrow

Economic Calendar - Jobs, worse than expected and knocked the minis down 3 to 1202.5. Huge day with many announcements including Philly Fed at 10, Natgas at 10:30 and housing market index at 1.

Pivot Points - Know 'em.

Well, you know what I think.Can they continue to pull rabbits out of the hat? The minis are set for their standard gap down open with the 30m working off being oversold. The minis and most indexes took out their upper resistance lines for the bull market corrective yesterday. You rarely hear anyone bitch about a market going up, but if they don't let this thing breathe soon, you might hear a little uproar. I guess they really don't give a shit. They have proven that they have the ability to take every bubble to the extremes and they are doing the same here. All hail the mighty bonus! To hell with the country, I need a third house in the Hamptons.

Not sure I can add anything to the post from the close yesterday, so if you want to see a chart or two, scroll down. If something should happen I'll be screaming and posting.

I'll add my 30m SPX. I bark about the 30m minis and the 30m SPX quite a bit. This is my main trading chart. SSO up and SDS down. I'll be waiting on the MACD to cross. I like the black TL at 83 as a target if it gets thru the red support line.The key is to remember to buy at the bottoms! Gotta play it both ways.

As a disclaimer, nothing is fool proof. Do your own homework. Always use stops and have a set trading plan. This system works for me, but things change and time frames and signals don't always work (see the daily chart LOL). I'll place buy and sell lines on this chart when they hit, but they are not guaranteed in any way.


Dollar - got a pop overnight. but 30m is about to roll over. Should have more weakness here.
Natgas - Report at 10:30 today. Have your fingers on the trigger. Is the pop over? Was this just a pause before further weakness? It has been range bound for over a week now.
Oil - Might be rebounding. With all the talk about Israel and Iran teeing it up sometime soon I would not expect any weakness.
Gold - Should remain range bound leaning to more weakness
EUR/USD -  oversold on the 60m, but you never know. One of the PIIGS could puke up a lung any minute.

GL!

I Think You Have To Get Ready For A Turn

I'm just saying, you know how stupid this sounds, like the market could actually turn. LMAO. With that thought in mind I present the following. 

CPC is getting near the extremes that brought the last big sell off. It is not there yet and we may need a little pop to get us there, but it is in the potential reversal zone. Last time it was down here we got a major move.

 Daily SPX - OK, price is above the daily BB. It is just under resistance. The red wedge is ending. The BB is pinching price into support. The BB may be vertical at this point. The BB width is very narrow indicating volatility. It has been overbought for an extended period.

 SPX weekly - I have been bringing you this chart with targets since October. I have cautioned that this rally will be over when the RSI crosses that red support line. With RSI finally over 80 one would think that would be enough. I will be truly amazed if it crosses the green target zone which contains the 200ma at 1224, the gap, the 61.8% retracement at 1230 and C=A at 1214. In my opinion this last push that got the market thru the bear market upper trendline is the blow off top suckers rally.

I'm not saying go short the market. I'm saying this should be a major turning point if things were "normal". I will continue to play my SDS and SSO up and down on the 30m S Sto crosses on SPX. They can ramp this SOB to the moon for all I care, but if this technical intersection on the daily chart does not produce a reversal I'll be amazed (yes, even more than I already am). GL!

When Is Enough Enough? E-minis SPX 500 Futures

You tell me when enough is enough. The latest unfathomable feat of the march to infinity and beyond happened on Friday after the bell I guess speculation (with some inside information) on the Greek bailout announcement. Of course the minis shot up a few extra points, but what they gapped thru is the insanity of it. For months I have been bringing you the minis and the wedge. The upper trendline has been the one constant the market has respected, until tonight. In the words of Moses, "Behold his power and respect his rules." (No caps cause I was referring to Helicopter Ben in the place of I Am).

Daily from the low - 

60m Drill down -

Even closer - note the gap thru the TL. That is one way of knowing you have a really solid TL in the right spot. So now futures price is above the bull run's top TL and in the green wedge heading further into the stratosphere. The reversal of all this will be horrendous.

I believe the 60m futures will still be overbought in the morning (see the TLs under the indicators above). The divergence on the daily RSI and overbought condition can not be ignored much longer. After the gap up in SPX to get it's 1200 glory, I am anticipating a fall of some degree. Let the 30m minis cycle to the top and that should be the proper time to enter shorts (they have a nasty way of setting up the 30m indicators to bottom in the am so be careful shorting till they top). The 30m SPX rupture (see my last post below) on Friday was possibly the single most abomination of the charts I have seen thus far on the run up.

One last chart - YEARLY SPX - 1209 looks to be a really important number on this chart.You need to note that the MACD is still in bear mode and although RSI is bouncing off the 50 line now I would not pay that any attention. The yearly RSI will have to hit the 25 line or worse before this ends. That is one super bearish candle in 2008. I expect the candle for this year to be red as well. Yes, that is a trendline and the lower BB near 300. The 50 ma is at 479. More in the am. GL!

Morning Post, E-mini, SPX, S&P500

Good morning from the sunny Florida panhandle. The 4 day beard has become a lucky trading goatee. Masters week is upon us as well. Surf is up but the futures are down. I'm gonna show you an interesting trend in the minis below so pay attention.

Pivot Points - Know 'em

Economic Calendar - Petrol at 10:30, Helicopter Ben at 1:30, Hoenig at 2:00 and consumer credit at 3:00. All could move the markets.

The push for 11,000 and 1,200 is still on. The RUT, Q's and Trans have made their goals I believe. SPX 1200 and DOW 11,000 are a breath away. Not sure if WLSH wants 12,500 or not. Sho looks like this run is running out of room for now. We all should know this market is running on fumes and the trannie (government/Fed funding) will give out eventually.

E-minis - What I want you to notice is the trend of them driving the futures up during the day and driving them down overnight when everyone is asleep. Follow the MACD and RSI below. Here we are again, gap down with oversold indicators on the futures. They create the gap down that the market wants to fill and then that momo continues to an indicator peak during the day. Rinse, repeat. That pink support line has a little crack. If the green line goes I believe something more dramatic is in store.

SPX weekly - I have been bringing you this same chart since last October. That is now 7 months or so I have been cautioning about further upside. The pattern is nearing an end. I do not see any further upside above a possible throwover of the wedge. The weeklys can climb a bit yet, but they have remained overbought since May of last year in my opinion. At this time I think 950 is a good target when it finally lets go (yes, I do think we eventually set new lows).

SPX Daily - The upper BB is pushing price into the support line. Unless some sort of dramatic surge up in the BB something has to give (I think it will be the support line). BB width is under 70 which is narrow and should cause some volatility.

GL out there. It is a tough game especially playing against a stacked deck. I'm looking for a major news event to set off this next fall which should mark the top. I'll do oil, dollar, natgas, gold and EUR post later. Sorry I have not been reporting on these like usual.

Morning Post

Its starting - University of California Campus Erupts In Riots; Student Loan Scam Drives Up Cost Of Education; Expect More Riots - They are coming. I do not watch the MSM anymore, so I do not know if these were covered or not. More on this and other things to come (nothing good of course) in the evening post.

Economic calendar - 3 and 6 month auction later today. Otherwise quiet.

Bent on manipulation should be the overriding theme of this market. If Rosie is right and the SPX is roughly 26% overvalued on a P/E basis, then these unprecedented pops are all that more impressive. The low volume trading is allowing the market makers little resistance to push it where they want it to go. I think, as a trader, you have to keep an open mind and stick with the trend. If you have not learned not to fight the trend by now, please leave the room now and do not return. You do not belong in the trenches trading these markets. The trend will turn. P3 will come. A massive meltdown/slaughter is coming, but it is obviously not here yet, so keep an open mind towards the current trend and NOT on what we all know is eventually coming.

OK, at least one blog I know of has been calling/warning of the possibility of a 5.3.5 move for at least two weeks. Who could that be? Hmmmm? I've been right on most of my calls all the way up leaning with the unexpected upside driven by manipulation and they did not disappoint me again last week. Why do you think I posted the weekly chart last week and asked you to heed its strength? Yes, I took some small short positions on Thursday, but was stopped out at the open on Friday. A turn is coming soon. Wait for it to come to you. I would not trust anything long here. This next move south should be pretty drastic I'm thinking.

SPX 60m -Have we learned out lesson of gauging market moves on the 60m indicators class? They are not reliable (at least not in a way they used to be). I warned you not to trust 'em. Yes, I shorted on what I thought was an overthrow of the triangle. It looked really good. Now if my I'm counting right were clearly in the C leg of an ABC move. I think we're finishing 3, but I can also count a 5 wave completing. The move actually measures best to a double top which will be fun to call. Keep an eye on the weekly indicators. This should be the final move for the bulls. Yes, those divergences are real and should put some pressure on the market (you'd think).

SPX Daily - Overbought and at the upper BB.
SPX Weekly - Still climbing. MACD hist has not gone positive. Bears may have to wait for a green candle there. RSI5 is just under it's divergence line. Let's see if that holds. S and F Sto are still in bull mode.

I'm expecting a correction soon, but I'm gonna look for a turn in the Weeklys to confirm any serious downside action. We've all seen the 30 and 60m cycle all around while the markets have continued to rise. We have also see the dailys remain embedded for what seemed to be improbable time frames. I'm back to watching the weeklys. Be patient. The turn will come. 

Dollar - I believe I was one of the only ones calling for the ABC corrective (with my alt scenario as a run to 89). I think the corrective has run it's course and a throw over of a wedge has occurred. If I am wrong it does a 30% retracement from the top here and then look for a C=A run to 89. The weeklys are topped and the dailys still have plenty of room to fall. I'm favoring more downside for some time.

Oil - Who the hell knows in the most manipulated market of them all? I think it is going to near $90 and I may be able to put a gate on the top if the trends continues. Look for a backtest of the initial channel off of the lows.

Natgas - It has gotten to weak to fast IMO. It is blowing out the bottom of it's down channel. The dailys are embedded oversold. Again I'll refer to the weekly indicators that say no big move up is coming. It may get a pop here soon, but don't expect much.

Gold - Dailys are toppy but the weeklys have some room to run. I'll speculate on a double top as it should have continued strength. Now, how it reacts to a market turn will be interesting. I'm not sure if it will inversely correlate with the expected weakness in the dollar, but the setup looks to be calling for that.

EUR/USD - The EUR is gonna get pounded eventually, but what isn't? The race for devaluation is in full force, but the EUR may have to pull into the pits for some fresh tires as it has completed a 61.8% retracement and seems to have found support. Might be time to the dollar to play catch up.

Morning Post

Don't believe the retail numbers (or the employment numbers). As I have warned, the people you see on TV are doing their best to pump you full of "it". Remember, they do NOT MAKE MONEY if you are not invested. It is their job to keep you in the market. They do not give a darn about your well being. They only care about their next bigger house in the Hamptons.

Some guy named Bryan on CNBS is a total moron. Right now talking about blow out numbers in retail - I think he and Dennis Kneale must have something going on - this meat head just said "as we see housing coming back" - WRONG!. Read Mish's report here on what should be expected for retail. Now, the comps are to a weak '08 period, the the pump masters (with the BLS), a little accounting chicanery and all the QE liquidity can all still lead this market ever higher, but be reassured it will come crashing down one day in the near future. Total systemic failure is coming. Remember we're coming out of an earnings trough where comps could be beaten by a monkey throwing darts.

SPX daily chart - Topping finally? 60m indicators are toast. 30m are on the road south. The last time we were in this position we got a healthy retreat, but remember the weeklys were in full cooperation. This time the weeklys are headed north hopefully getting ready to set the divergenceMinis are flat coming into the open but it should be noted they were as low as 1114, so they have recovered 6 points since early in the morning.

The double top on the RSI5 screams overbought. The double top in the MACD hist with it declining yesterday screams overbought. S Sto is overbought.ADX is not all that inspired. My two scenarios still stand. This is either a throw over of the triangle and the fall will be to 1044, or this is the ending of the first leg up of the second 5 in the 5.3.5 that I have been speculating about and will be the final run to the final top if it is. I took 1/2 short positions in SDS and FAZ yesterday. It is a wait and see game. Sorry I can not be more definitive in the call, but the manipulators have proven that nothing you see is real or can be counted on anymore.

Dollar - Still falling. I think it is toast and the ABC that I called has completed. Here is my UUP chart. If it should continue to run $89 is my upper target.
Oil - Will tensions in the middle east continue to escalate. If they do blow up, we'll find out the hard way that we are to dependent on energy from others in a bad way. Oil is struggling to go higher right now with the dailys topping out.
NG - Near term oversold and I'm looking for a pop here before further weakness. It is sitting on it's 38% retracement right here. 5.21 max pop.
Gold - Climbing in what may be an ABC corrective. Up $100 in a little over a week. 60m headed down and dailys are topping. If the market begins to sell off so will gold I think.
EUR/USD - The pair has hit bottom I think (for now at least). Is it the dollar's turn to get devalued as they systematically work currencies to a point all this debt can be better managed? It has completed a 61.8% retracement of the rise off of the lows in late '08. Looks to me like that was a 3 and now we're gonna get a 4 corrective up. 1.41 would be a good number. HERE is a good EUR/USD vid.

GL! Let's see what the pump machine has in store for us today. The weeklys are not ready to turn just yet, so those all giddy about a turn may have to wait till next week. We'll have to see.

UNG Popping

Tough call on UNG here. I was obviously wrong on my read this am that "Natgas is topping I think - It is at resistance at least and struggling to get any higher. The turbo boost it got this week from the XOM deal may need to be corrected some." Well. it simply blew thru resistance this am. I was looking for a little consolidation, but they thought differently.

UNG daily - I was a few days off and a few pennies short on my target, but overall very close (that was made in a 12/10 post you can see here). Does the upper TL hold and where does it go from here? It appears to want to be holding based on the spike thru it at this time (Note - it has not cracked this upper TL like this before). The break of the 65ma and a run to the TL has been the MO thus far. The completed 62% retracement and the topping of the 30 and 60m chart indicators look like some resistance is in place here. The daily indicators look to have a little room to run other than a topping S Sto.

The weekly chart may tell the best story. This is as bullish as it has looked in a long time. Clear breakouts of all the indicators. If price can get thru the 20ma and the upper TL, this may be the pop we all have been looking for. See the resistance points for the many targets that lie above if it should pop here. Folks this weekly chart is the main reason I have remained so bearish on UNG for so long. Now these breakouts give me some real hope for more upside. If the 20ma and TL hold, it may be the same old story so keep your stops close. Remember, there is no real reason to be bullish on a price rise other than an artificial shortage created by massive cuts in production.

Do your own homework on this one. Relying on TA alone is not enough as futures pricing really controls the price. I will say the weekly indicators look more bullish now than they have in a long time. this does not mean the volatility is gone, but possibly the bottom is in.  Please refer to the EIA site here for a bunch of good info on NATGAS.

I am long a 15% position in UNG.