I can't pull it out exactly when, but I remember a period this year when the DOW minis fell over 100 points 5 out of 7 nights and wanted to crash just like the last three nights and the markets subsequently rallied out of that set up. The euro zone is driving the minis down overnight and they are rallying to "hide" the underlying weakness by the open. I'm not sure why the markets have had two green days, but they have.
I don't know how the markets can be sure of anything given the underlying issues globally and here in the US. What we have learned here at STB is that what is isn't. You can't get caught up in what "should be". The markets are totally controlled. As stated here many times the markets are all they have between them and a revolution in this country. The pension system is underfunded and on the verge of collapsing. It can not afford another "dip" in the markets as asset values give the impression (or illusion as STB likes to call it) all is well.
Showing posts with label market. Show all posts
Showing posts with label market. Show all posts
Wednesday, September 14, 2011
Thursday, August 27, 2009
Good Morning - Flat to Down.
Tougher call today as muted responses to market data continue to baffle. After checking out Dan's post and a few others, looks like the pennant that has formed should lead to further upside. If it plays out as measures one target is 1048 and the other 1038 depending on point of measurement. The is not a call.
Lots and lots and even more people calling for a pullback. With the daily upper BB at 1032 and the 60m and weekly indicators topped out combined with the position of the daily indicators recent confusion I will lead to a flat to down call for today. The wild card this afternoon (other than the usual 3:30 GS/LPM ramp job) will be speculation on Dell's earnings after the close.
If she should fall - 1115, 1004 and 995 should be support levels. 1115, 1008 and 1001 are the fib retracements. The old gap may come into play around 1004.
We need volume and a catalyst for some real movement IMO. I'm not sure how to feel about the muted reaction to the past few day's news. Very strange.
GL today.
This 5m SPX chart gives a better picture of the falling wedge I think that is in play. You can see (although unlabeled) the triangle above running the top side of this blue falling wedge/diagonal. Also notice the 65ma that catches tops and bottoms pretty well. The ma is splitting price IMO meaning confusion on direction. This chart and all my charts are real time at my chartbook on SC. Link to right.
Lots and lots and even more people calling for a pullback. With the daily upper BB at 1032 and the 60m and weekly indicators topped out combined with the position of the daily indicators recent confusion I will lead to a flat to down call for today. The wild card this afternoon (other than the usual 3:30 GS/LPM ramp job) will be speculation on Dell's earnings after the close.
If she should fall - 1115, 1004 and 995 should be support levels. 1115, 1008 and 1001 are the fib retracements. The old gap may come into play around 1004.
We need volume and a catalyst for some real movement IMO. I'm not sure how to feel about the muted reaction to the past few day's news. Very strange.
GL today.
This 5m SPX chart gives a better picture of the falling wedge I think that is in play. You can see (although unlabeled) the triangle above running the top side of this blue falling wedge/diagonal. Also notice the 65ma that catches tops and bottoms pretty well. The ma is splitting price IMO meaning confusion on direction. This chart and all my charts are real time at my chartbook on SC. Link to right.
Tuesday, August 11, 2009
So, Is It Really About To Hit The Fan? (I'm Back To Normal)
To P3 or not to P3? That is the question. With the apparent topping of the market and the fed now supporting our treasury auctions, is this the beginning of the end? I believe the beginning of the end happened in 2003 with Greenspan's manufactured credit bubble to save the bank's collective asses from all of the mistakes they made in the dot com bubble. You see, if they were not insolvent then, they sure are now. This reflation trade and the recent manufactured rally are last gap efforts to salvage what they can. The great grab you can call it.
Most of you know I think the ratings agencies had a lot to do with the RE debacle. I have spoken to many appraisers that told me about the valuation game they had to play in order to survive and be able to "work" with the banks. Well, are they changing their tune? Have they seen the light? TD at ZeroHedge has this post Moody's Nukes 163 CMBS Classes Due To Maguire Toxic Exposure.
Add to this the post from Calculated risk WSJ: JPMorgan Offering 23 Office Properties For Sale. "J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. is marketing 23 office properties ... with a combined 7.1 million square feet of space, includes four notable towers: One Chase Manhattan Plaza, near Wall Street; Four New York Plaza, also in the Financial District; the former headquarters of Washington Mutual in a downtown Seattle skyscraper that also houses the city's art museum; and a landmarked 1929 Art Deco building in Houston, the former headquarters of Texas Commerce Bank. The portfolio is believed to be the largest single portfolio of office properties to hit the market this year and could raise more than $1 billion." Folks the CRE crash IS coming. There will be no stopping it. This will be the P3 event that kills the REITS and finally brings down the banks that are "to big to fail".
Denninger at The Market Ticker loves to beat on the credit issue (deservedly so). In Banking and Credit: It Is NOT Over Karl has, "We still have banks that are engaged in what amounts to accounting fraud when looked at through any sort of objective lens, but its all "OK" because we have "accounting rules" that say you can claim something is worth more than it really is." Karl takes the verbiage from the Congressional Oversight Panel and puts it nicely in plain English.
Mish has Government Bailouts and the Stock Market - The Seen and the Unseen in which he does a good job explaining many of the problems to come. I like his comparison to Japan since 1990 as to where we are headed. (that is 28 years of hell OBTW). "The worst recession since the 1930's is the payback for the credit boom, while the payback for the bailouts is coming down the line. The likely payback for all these bailouts is structurally high unemployment and a stock market that goes nowhere for years to come."
Pragcap has ROBERT PRECHTER: NEW LOWS ARE COMING where Prechter takes down all the green shoots and explains the EWT side of the story. This is Prechter's count and there are many others. Kenny has us in an ABC while Dan and I agree on the P2 scenario. I am somewhere in between.
And for you people planning on attending a town hall meeting Bloomberg reports How to Speak to an Unruly Crowd. You can read thru this post and learn how to cut off your representative at the pass. The last sentence says it all, "It takes a strong sense of self to face a restless crowd. The operative principle when engaging an audience is control. If you have it, continue; if you lose it, retreat."
Folks, we have realistically insolvent banks with all of the TARP funds not lending to the dead and increasingly unemployed consumer who is busy paying off debt and leaving their upside down mortgages in their past and FRE and FNM holding the bag while having their credit limits cut to the bone and the government is pumping GDP like there is not tomorrow and we all believe the green shoots are so real we'll be able to serve them as a side salad before your last supper.
CRE crash is coming. The banks will have to face the truth (accounting fraud can't go on forever - can it?). HFT manipulation will stop eventually. The market will top, but when? And how deep will it go after reality bites everyone in the butt? I don't think this is "it" yet. They have more tricks up their sleeves. Remember, they can change the rules as they play the game. The insiders are hard at work completing the pump and dump. The marketeers at CNBS and the other outlets will lead you down the path of righteous bull crap. So do not be surprised if this market should make one last pop, but that one will be the last.
I'm back from the beach and back to normal I guess.
GL trading.
Most of you know I think the ratings agencies had a lot to do with the RE debacle. I have spoken to many appraisers that told me about the valuation game they had to play in order to survive and be able to "work" with the banks. Well, are they changing their tune? Have they seen the light? TD at ZeroHedge has this post Moody's Nukes 163 CMBS Classes Due To Maguire Toxic Exposure.
Add to this the post from Calculated risk WSJ: JPMorgan Offering 23 Office Properties For Sale. "J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. is marketing 23 office properties ... with a combined 7.1 million square feet of space, includes four notable towers: One Chase Manhattan Plaza, near Wall Street; Four New York Plaza, also in the Financial District; the former headquarters of Washington Mutual in a downtown Seattle skyscraper that also houses the city's art museum; and a landmarked 1929 Art Deco building in Houston, the former headquarters of Texas Commerce Bank. The portfolio is believed to be the largest single portfolio of office properties to hit the market this year and could raise more than $1 billion." Folks the CRE crash IS coming. There will be no stopping it. This will be the P3 event that kills the REITS and finally brings down the banks that are "to big to fail".
Denninger at The Market Ticker loves to beat on the credit issue (deservedly so). In Banking and Credit: It Is NOT Over Karl has, "We still have banks that are engaged in what amounts to accounting fraud when looked at through any sort of objective lens, but its all "OK" because we have "accounting rules" that say you can claim something is worth more than it really is." Karl takes the verbiage from the Congressional Oversight Panel and puts it nicely in plain English.
Mish has Government Bailouts and the Stock Market - The Seen and the Unseen in which he does a good job explaining many of the problems to come. I like his comparison to Japan since 1990 as to where we are headed. (that is 28 years of hell OBTW). "The worst recession since the 1930's is the payback for the credit boom, while the payback for the bailouts is coming down the line. The likely payback for all these bailouts is structurally high unemployment and a stock market that goes nowhere for years to come."
Pragcap has ROBERT PRECHTER: NEW LOWS ARE COMING where Prechter takes down all the green shoots and explains the EWT side of the story. This is Prechter's count and there are many others. Kenny has us in an ABC while Dan and I agree on the P2 scenario. I am somewhere in between.
And for you people planning on attending a town hall meeting Bloomberg reports How to Speak to an Unruly Crowd. You can read thru this post and learn how to cut off your representative at the pass. The last sentence says it all, "It takes a strong sense of self to face a restless crowd. The operative principle when engaging an audience is control. If you have it, continue; if you lose it, retreat."
Folks, we have realistically insolvent banks with all of the TARP funds not lending to the dead and increasingly unemployed consumer who is busy paying off debt and leaving their upside down mortgages in their past and FRE and FNM holding the bag while having their credit limits cut to the bone and the government is pumping GDP like there is not tomorrow and we all believe the green shoots are so real we'll be able to serve them as a side salad before your last supper.
CRE crash is coming. The banks will have to face the truth (accounting fraud can't go on forever - can it?). HFT manipulation will stop eventually. The market will top, but when? And how deep will it go after reality bites everyone in the butt? I don't think this is "it" yet. They have more tricks up their sleeves. Remember, they can change the rules as they play the game. The insiders are hard at work completing the pump and dump. The marketeers at CNBS and the other outlets will lead you down the path of righteous bull crap. So do not be surprised if this market should make one last pop, but that one will be the last.
I'm back from the beach and back to normal I guess.
GL trading.
Monday, July 13, 2009
Let's Bang (on) Meredith
All pile on. Make it a gang bang. MW made a great call today and I believe she will be right on both counts. The up part is the easy call. How the fuck GS is gonna fall will be the miracle part. The only problem I have with her speaking this way is that she gave CNBS a shit pot load of green shoot fertilizer to spew from their mountain top that will be Crameresque (misleading) to the general public.
First I'll refer you to a meaningless and dry post from the WSJ covering her statements on CNBS today. In Analyst Meredith Whitney Bullish on Goldman you get, "However, Ms. Whitney said her bullish view of Goldman is rooted in her overall bearish outlook for the U.S. economy and other U.S. financial companies. During an interview on the financial network CNBC on Monday morning, she said the U.S. unemployment rate could reach 13% and remain elevated beyond 2010, and that most banks likely aren't prepared for prolonged joblessness at that level. The U.S. unemployment rate reached 9.5% in June. She said that bank stocks will be good buys in the short-term due to a robust mortgage business, but that the longer-term outlook for most banks was grim."
Fing brilliant! It is gonna go up and then down, so we are going to put a buy rating on GS. WTF is that all about? Well, dear readers I actually agree. We're talking about Government Sachs. The most insider oriented brokerage (oops - bank holding company) on the planet. She's right on the up first. How much fing money do you think GS made using our tax money in conjunction with their "supposed" market manipulation software? How have GS's earning been effected thru accounting manipulation allowing "specific" assets to be placed off balance sheets? How bout that "lost" quarter? She's exactly right. The government nor the fed will never cut off their right arm, not the company that supplies a vast majority of their higher placed employees.
Denninger takes some shots at MW in Merideth Whitney: The Internet NEVER SLEEPS. For once I have to agree to disagree with my buddy Karl. Karl is right in his argument, but he totally misses the point (as most P3ers do regularly and I did for the longest time as well). It is not time yet for the great collapse. The P3. The big crap. The monster fucking we'll all take when the market really shits on its self. "Our government's policy of looking the other way on blatant accounting farces through FASB changes, refusing to force banks to mark defaulted loans at the current market value of the underlying asset and outright handouts of taxpayer money through AIG as a conduit is outrageous, and worse, it guarantees that the economy will not and cannot recover as the debt still remains in the system!" . BINGO! Karl, you are right, BUT this bullshit manipulation has to work its way thru the trade. All things in good time Karl (buddy).
It took some time, but I have given into the fact that real TA nor EWT counts really work well at all right now. Fundamental analysis is dead. This fing market is running IMO on rotten analyst ratings, accounting scams and any other fing manipulative bullshit technique they can use to keep it afloat. Of course GS is gonna go up. You really freaking think they are gonna post a bad number or give weak guidance? I'll be surprised as hell if they do. In fact, you can draw and quarter me tomorrow at 9:00 if they do.
Ask yourself, who the hell is behind the depressed estimates and buy ratings? We've relieved ourselves, although inadvertintley, of the vast majority of the brokerages that were not part of the "club" and thus the gang can all get together to pump up the buy ratings and "take advantage" of this earnings trough. At the worst time in history when these holding companies need income in the worst way, you actually think they are going to do something that would not spurn a buying spree? Get real dude. They are in the business of pumping and pushing product. BUY AMERICA baby!
HA! Here is where the problem lies. They have dug their own hole and unintentionally will release the doom and gloom. Unless they come up with a "super buy" rating or for the KMart shoppers a "blue light special" on aisle 2, they can't pump these things up any more. I mean really, who the fuck is gonna put a buy rating on any freaking retailer (or insert any sector here _____) in the worst economic downturn since the great depression. Give me a fing break. Also, the banks manipulated BS earnings will collapse one day (sooner than later). IMO either this quarter or next will be the last before the shit hits the fan.
Folks it is all a bunch of bullshit and the house of cards will come crumbling down GUARANTEED here at Shanky's site. P3 will occur. The moronic and manipulated analysts will be eating crow. I'm sure most of you know my call from my Shanky's State Of the Charts Post. Option one is up then down. See, MW is just catching up with your buddy Shanky. She lags.
Both Karl and MW are right. Up then down. Even GS will crumble one day (not sure how, but it will). Just be patient P3ers and permabears. Be patient and don't bang on MW too hard.
First I'll refer you to a meaningless and dry post from the WSJ covering her statements on CNBS today. In Analyst Meredith Whitney Bullish on Goldman you get, "However, Ms. Whitney said her bullish view of Goldman is rooted in her overall bearish outlook for the U.S. economy and other U.S. financial companies. During an interview on the financial network CNBC on Monday morning, she said the U.S. unemployment rate could reach 13% and remain elevated beyond 2010, and that most banks likely aren't prepared for prolonged joblessness at that level. The U.S. unemployment rate reached 9.5% in June. She said that bank stocks will be good buys in the short-term due to a robust mortgage business, but that the longer-term outlook for most banks was grim."
Fing brilliant! It is gonna go up and then down, so we are going to put a buy rating on GS. WTF is that all about? Well, dear readers I actually agree. We're talking about Government Sachs. The most insider oriented brokerage (oops - bank holding company) on the planet. She's right on the up first. How much fing money do you think GS made using our tax money in conjunction with their "supposed" market manipulation software? How have GS's earning been effected thru accounting manipulation allowing "specific" assets to be placed off balance sheets? How bout that "lost" quarter? She's exactly right. The government nor the fed will never cut off their right arm, not the company that supplies a vast majority of their higher placed employees.
Denninger takes some shots at MW in Merideth Whitney: The Internet NEVER SLEEPS. For once I have to agree to disagree with my buddy Karl. Karl is right in his argument, but he totally misses the point (as most P3ers do regularly and I did for the longest time as well). It is not time yet for the great collapse. The P3. The big crap. The monster fucking we'll all take when the market really shits on its self. "Our government's policy of looking the other way on blatant accounting farces through FASB changes, refusing to force banks to mark defaulted loans at the current market value of the underlying asset and outright handouts of taxpayer money through AIG as a conduit is outrageous, and worse, it guarantees that the economy will not and cannot recover as the debt still remains in the system!" . BINGO! Karl, you are right, BUT this bullshit manipulation has to work its way thru the trade. All things in good time Karl (buddy).
It took some time, but I have given into the fact that real TA nor EWT counts really work well at all right now. Fundamental analysis is dead. This fing market is running IMO on rotten analyst ratings, accounting scams and any other fing manipulative bullshit technique they can use to keep it afloat. Of course GS is gonna go up. You really freaking think they are gonna post a bad number or give weak guidance? I'll be surprised as hell if they do. In fact, you can draw and quarter me tomorrow at 9:00 if they do.
Ask yourself, who the hell is behind the depressed estimates and buy ratings? We've relieved ourselves, although inadvertintley, of the vast majority of the brokerages that were not part of the "club" and thus the gang can all get together to pump up the buy ratings and "take advantage" of this earnings trough. At the worst time in history when these holding companies need income in the worst way, you actually think they are going to do something that would not spurn a buying spree? Get real dude. They are in the business of pumping and pushing product. BUY AMERICA baby!
HA! Here is where the problem lies. They have dug their own hole and unintentionally will release the doom and gloom. Unless they come up with a "super buy" rating or for the KMart shoppers a "blue light special" on aisle 2, they can't pump these things up any more. I mean really, who the fuck is gonna put a buy rating on any freaking retailer (or insert any sector here _____) in the worst economic downturn since the great depression. Give me a fing break. Also, the banks manipulated BS earnings will collapse one day (sooner than later). IMO either this quarter or next will be the last before the shit hits the fan.
Folks it is all a bunch of bullshit and the house of cards will come crumbling down GUARANTEED here at Shanky's site. P3 will occur. The moronic and manipulated analysts will be eating crow. I'm sure most of you know my call from my Shanky's State Of the Charts Post. Option one is up then down. See, MW is just catching up with your buddy Shanky. She lags.
Both Karl and MW are right. Up then down. Even GS will crumble one day (not sure how, but it will). Just be patient P3ers and permabears. Be patient and don't bang on MW too hard.
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